FT : Draghi and Fischer reject claim central banks are too politicised

Two of the world’s most senior central bankers have hit back at charges that they have become too politicised, saying their calls for governments to take more aggressive steps to steer their economies towards a full recovery were necessary.
Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, and Stanley Fischer, the US Federal Reserve’s vice-chair, also disputed the idea that unelected technocrats should refrain from commenting on governments’ economic policies.

The remarks, at the ECB’s annual conference in Sintra, came after Mr Draghi on Friday called on lawmakers in the eurozone to implement politically unpopular structural reforms, or face years of weak economic growth.
The ECB president on Saturday said his calls were appropriate in a monetary union where growth prospects had been badly damaged by governments’ resistance to economic reforms.
Mr Draghi said it was the central bank’s responsibility to comment if governments’ inaction on structural reforms was creating divergence in growth and unemployment within the eurozone, which undermined the existence of the currency area.
“In a monetary union you can’t afford to have large and increasing structural divergences,” the ECB president said. “They tend to become explosive.”
Mr Draghi’s defence of the central bank came after Paul De Grauwe, an academic at the London School of Economics, challenged his calls for structural reforms earlier in the week. Mr De Grauwe said central banks’ push for governments to take steps that removed people’s job protection would expose monetary policy makers to criticism over their independence to set interest rates.

The ECB president said central banks had a long tradition of commenting on governments’ economic policies, and that they had been right to speak out against wage indexation in the 1970s and fiscal excesses in earlier decades.
He said central banks had been wrong to keep quiet on the deregulation of the financial sector. “We all wish central bankers had spoken out more when regulation was dismantled before the crisis,” Mr Draghi said. A lack of structural reform was having much more of an impact on poor European growth than in the US, he added.
Mr Fischer said central bankers should think about structural reforms “in the context of what’s the expected growth rate in the economy”.

The Fed vice-chair said it was appropriate for monetary policy makers to comment on spending in infrastructure and education because of the impact it had on US growth. “There is general agreement that US infrastructure could do with a lot of investment. You just have to go on trains in the US or Europe to figure that out,” Mr Fischer told the audience of top academics and policy makers in Sintra on Saturday.
He acknowledged there were limits on what was appropriate, saying he would “never talk about whether the defence budget was appropriate”.
The passing of the Dodd-Frank Act was a “very massive change in the structure of the financial sector” and was “very important for financial stability going ahead”.
Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the Bank of Japan who joined Mr Draghi and Mr Fischer on the panel, said he expected inflation to reach 2 per cent around the first half of the 2016 fiscal year.

FT : Japan experts defend Abenomics ‘go for growth’ strategy

Japan experts defend Abenomics ‘go for growth’ strategy

Two of the authors of Japan’s new fiscal strategy have defended the decision to “go for growth” as a way out of the world’s biggest public debt problem.
In interviews with the Financial Times, Motoshige Ito and Susumu Takahashi argued it makes sense to assume Abenomics will succeed, rather than doom the stimulus to failure by tightening fiscal policy now.

Their comments highlight hopes that escaping deflation will deliver a massive jolt to Japan’s growth prospects, helping to cure chronic budget deficits, and tackle a gross public debt amounting to 246 per cent of annual output.
“It’s impossible to tackle the fiscal situation if it doesn’t fit with reviving the economy and ending deflation,” said Mr Takahashi, chairman of the Japan Research Institute, and a member of the government panel that will deliver the new strategy by the end of June.
The panel includes prime minister Shinzo Abe and five of his cabinet; Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda; and four private sector members including Mr Takahashi and Mr Ito, a professor at the University of Tokyo.
According to people close to the deliberations, there is tension between the finance ministry, which wants to lock in spending cuts as early as possible, and the Cabinet Office — representing Mr Abe — which is determined not to choke off growth.
The fiscal panel has come under fire for its rosy economic projections: they assume growth of more than 2 per cent a year after 2018, implying Japan will expand faster than the US, in spite of its shrinking population.
“Using overly optimistic macroeconomic assumptions as in the ‘revitalisation’ scenario . . . risks harming confidence in the authorities’ ability to restore fiscal sustainability,” said the International Monetary Fund.
Mr Ito acknowledged the forecasts are “very ambitious” but said it was reasonable to expect a rise in growth and tax revenues if Japan escapes from deflation.
The basic argument is that years of chronically low demand in Japan have meant little reason to economise on labour. Once wages rise, and domestic companies have to compete for workers, it could unleash two decades of pent-up potential for productivity gains.
“That is actually the chance we have as a country suffering from lack of demand for 20 years,” said Mr Ito.
It’s impossible to tackle the fiscal situation if it doesn’t fit with reviving the economy and ending deflation
- Susumu Takahashi
Mr Ito said Japan’s solid growth in output per worker does not imply a lack of room for productivity to rise. Low participation in the workforce may flatter the productivity of those who are in jobs, he said.
With consumption tax due to rise from 8 per cent to 10 per cent in 2017, and cheery growth forecasts, the fiscal panel only needs to save another 1.6 per cent of gross domestic product to reach a primary balance by 2020. Primary balance means taxes cover spending, before interest payments.
The fiscal panel intends to lay out a detailed schedule of reforms to healthcare spending. Possibilities include strong incentives to use generic drugs and targeting overcapacity in hospital beds — which encourages doctors to fill them.
“So far, when Japan’s tried to restrain healthcare spending, we’ve used a cap. But the effect of these ceilings never lasts,” said Mr Takahashi. “The Abe administration is trying for structural reform.”
Both Mr Takahashi and Mr Ito say just getting to a primary balance is not enough. Instead Japan needs to get its debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward path.
Japan’s public spending will increase sharply after 2025 as the baby boom generation reaches old age. Mr Takahashi said tax rises will then be necessary “but in order to minimise their size we need to control spending now”.
“When it comes to how we can decrease debt-to-GDP in the long-run, we have to be very realistic. It is not possible to lower debt-to-GDP only by ordinary budget surpluses,” said Mr Ito, pointing out it would take decades of large surpluses to erode the existing debt.
“It is not the issue we are discussing now, but in order to decrease the debt-to-GDP ratio in the long-run . . . there must be more serious discussion of mild inflation — 2 per cent or 3 per cent,” he said.

(Barron's) Barron's summary: Cautious EVDY, CRCM, IMPR, AIRM; Positive on AAL, H

Barron's summary: Cautious EVDY, CRCM, IMPR, AIRM; Positive on AAL, HLT, R, MDR, BNCL, ASNA 

Cover story: Financial advisors face growing competition from robo advisors such as Wealthfront and Betterment that use websites backed by sophisticated software to put investors into asset allocation plans that meet a range of financial goals; Because top advisors dont typically take on clients with less than $1M in assets--and they often require more--the new technology is bringing financial advice to the masses at a low cost.

Tech Trader: Cautious on EVDY, CRCM, IMPR: Digital health, including software, medical devices, and services, continues to grow at a rapid clip, but many companies that have gone public continue to lose money and are likely to do so for some time, despite the success of ATHN and HSTM.

Trader: Dow theory-of-investing bears are ignoring a longer historical perspective, says Weeden chief global strategist Michael Purves; Positive on AAL: Consolidation in the airline sector has boosted profits for carriers but has cost consumers, a trend that isnt going to change in the near future; Cautious on AIRM: Nations biggest air-ambulance firm has continued to raise prices, but they might not continue, which could hurt the stock. 

Features: 1) Positive on HLT: Hotel chains shares could rise another 15% to 25% over the next year, driven by continuing expansion and rising revenue per available room, a key hotel metric; 2) Positive on R: Truck-rental company is benefiting from a stronger economy, which has boosted demand among companies that lease trucks, and company is increasing leasing trucks and selling maintenance and supply-chain management; 3) Positive on MDR: Oil-and-gas services company is rebounding after facing a number of problems; despite recent gains, investors still have an opportunity to benefit, since shares could rise by another 35%. 

Small Caps: Positive on BNCL: Firm is flush with excess capital, and despite a recent boost, shares could still return 15% or more in the next 18 months. 

Profile: Paul Simmie, portfolio manager, Bristol Gate, buys shares of companies that he feels will continue to raise their dividends, such as LUV. 

Interview: Charles Pohl and Diana Strandberg, portfolio managers, Dodge & Cox, think U.S. valuations are approaching the higher end of their historical range (picks: SLB, Samsung Electronics, Standard Chartered). 

Follow-Up: For the first time in nearly a decade, its turning out to be a good year for stock picking; Positive on CVS: Acquisition of OCR gives pharmacy company an obvious path to gaining sales from the elderly, a growing and heavily medicated population, and investors should hold on to shares; Positive on ASNA: Company expects to generate $150M in cost savings following acquisition of ANN support functions such as transportation, sourcing, and procurement. 

European Trader: Positive on British Land, Land Securities, Savills, Foxtons: Property developers and realtors listed in the U.K. are set to benefit most from the surprising victory of Prime Minister David Camerons Conservative Party in the recent elections. 

Asian Trader: The fall of Hong Kong-listed Hanergy Thin Film Power Group, which lost $19B in market valuation on Thursday, should come as no surprise; the company received an influx of money through the Connect link to China just as questions were arising about its business. 

Emerging Markets: Polands economy is among the fastest-growing in Europe despite the countrys proximity to Russia, helped in part by a stable currency (Positive on PLND, EPOL, Asseco Poland, Alior Bank).

Commodities: A stronger U.S. home-building market is likely to give lumber prices a boost, and they could climb 20% by the end of the year. 

Streetwise: Positive on LOW: Despite recent disappointment in same-store sales, retailers turnaround should eventually pay off for patient, long-term investors. - Source TradeTheNews.com

>>> ECB's Draghi: Eurozone leaders need to hasten transition to economic and mon

ECB's Draghi: Eurozone leaders need to hasten transition to economic and monetary union - financial press 
- Says: "The current situation in the euro area demonstrates that this delay could be dangerous... Strong divergences remain in terms of unemployment, growth, and productivity," Draghi said, adding that rather than fearing losing power and policy-making flexibility in accepting common eurozone strictures, national governments must realise "new sovereignty-sharing (which)... can appear to be a threat is actually an opportunity... The next step towards authentic economic and monetary union will consist of becoming aware of these constraints and taking control of them."

NYT : Detroit’s Chief Instigator, Fiat approached GM about Merger in MArch

In the middle of March, Mary T. Barra, the chief executive of General Motors, received a lengthy and unusual email from one of her direct competitors, Sergio Marchionne.

Ms. Barra had never met Mr. Marchionne, the C.E.O. of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. And she was in no way expecting their first contact to be an offer to discuss a potential blockbuster of a merger.

The email, according to two people with knowledge of it and reported for the first time here, laid out in detail how global carmakers needed to consolidate to save money and suggested that a combination of G.M. and Fiat Chrysler could cut billions of dollars in costs and create an automotive superpower.

This analysis did not interest Ms. Barra or other G.M. executives and board members. Instead, Mr. Marchionne’s request for a meeting on the subject was flatly turned down, according to people with knowledge of the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Mr. Marchionne, however, is not one to be put off by rejection. So a month later, on April 29, in a routine analyst conference call, he doubled down. Instead of following the usual script, in which chief executives discuss the current state of their operations, Mr. Marchionne stunned the Wall Street analysts by devoting the entire call to his sudden and intense appeal to automakers to merge.

“I think it is absolutely clear that the amount of capital waste that’s going on in this industry is something that certainly requires remedy,” he said. “A remedy in our view is through consolidation.”

It’s not often that a chief executive announces to the world that his company is eager to find a merger partner. Some might even consider it a sign of weakness and, in fact, F.C.A.’s stock dropped about 10 percent over the next two days. Rather than rally support, Mr. Marchionne’s passionate appeal only highlighted the difficulties that lie ahead for Fiat Chrysler.

Mr. Marchionne has had remarkable success in blending two struggling car companies into the world’s seventh-largest automaker. F.C.A.’s sales in the United States have doubled since 2009. But it still sold only 4.6 million cars and trucks worldwide in 2014, about half as many as competitors like G.M. and Volkswagen. Its valuable brands, like Jeep sport utility vehicles and Ram pickups, don’t compensate for the fact that it makes less money than its rivals, lags in China — the world’s biggest car market — and barely invests in alternative-fuel vehicles that are critical to meeting the coming tougher federal rules on fuel economy.

Mr. Marchionne says he has a detailed plan to improve F.C.A.’s performance, but his current obsession seems to be playing the automotive Cassandra, warning of disastrous consequences if companies continue spending unabated. He has no patience for subtlety or delicate phrasing.

The bigger the issue, in fact, the louder he becomes. He irritated the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration by defiantly defending F.C.A.’s response to safety issues with older Jeep models. N.H.T.S.A. just last week scheduled a hearing to examine the company’s follow-through on recalls, something it rarely does. Mr. Marchionne also appears headed for a confrontation with union leaders in this summer’s contract negotiations because of F.C.A.’s rampant hiring of lower-paid workers. Alone among auto chiefs, he wants to end the current two-tier wage system by phasing out the top wage rate as veteran employees retire.

Detroit hasn’t seen a C.E.O. as provocative and unpredictable since Lee A. Iacocca, Chrysler’s previous savior, in the 1980s. And as with Mr. Iacocca, confidence is never a problem for Mr. Marchionne.

When in the United States, Mr. Marchionne, 62, works out of a tiny office in a wing of the sprawling Chrysler Technical Center in the Detroit suburb of Auburn Hills. He prefers to spend time among engineers and product planners rather than in the lavish suite of executive offices in the nearby headquarters tower. In March, as he settled in for an interview at a small table, a window giving a view over a service drive, he downed the first of several espressos and silenced his four cellphones. Though smoking is forbidden elsewhere in the building, in this sanctuary he lit up one Marlboro after another.

Mr. Marchionne doesn’t look like a typical car executive. His uniform is a black sweater over a button-down shirt with black pants, and you get the sense he can’t be bothered to find a hairbrush. Unlike Ms. Barra or Mark Fields of Ford Motor, both of whom rose through the corporate ranks, Mr. Marchionne never even worked for a car company before taking the top job at Fiat in 2004.

Born in Chieti, Italy, a small city on the Adriatic Sea, he moved to Canada with his family as a teenager. He earned degrees in philosophy, law and business administration before joining an accounting firm at 30. From there, he spent most of his career bouncing through executive posts at unglamorous Canadian and European chemical and industrial companies.

He was an obscure board member at Fiat when the Agnelli family, which controlled the Italian automaker, picked him to reverse its long decline. He moved fast, firing executives, flattening the company’s bureaucracy, eliminating slow-selling models and paring production to match market demand. In a warm-up for Chrysler, he also fostered an entrepreneurial culture in which executives were given wide latitude to meet internal targets.

Since he cut the deal with the Obama administration six years ago to take control of Chrysler, his moves have confounded an industry that tends to adhere to tried-and-true formulas. When other companies streamlined their brand lineups, Mr. Marchionne created new ones, such as splitting off Ram trucks from the larger Dodge division. Rather than glossing over Chrysler’s battered image, he embraced it with soulful advertising campaigns that extolled the tenacious spirit behind vehicles that were “imported from Detroit.”

“I’ve always had this incredible sense of urgency,” he said. “I’ve always had this desire not to let things fester and to really seize the moment, because it’s serendipity.”

He paused. “You create the conditions for it, and it just keeps producing outcomes or opportunities for you to pick,” he said. “And if you don’t pick them, then it’s your own damn fault.”

He saw that kind of opportunity four years ago when he took advantage of Chrysler’s precarious financial condition to negotiate a favorable contract with the United Automobile Workers union. That deal allowed him unlimited use of workers paid on a lower scale — about $19 an hour compared with $28 for veteran employees.

The arrangement opened the door for Fiat Chrysler to go on a hiring spree of cheaper labor in the United States. Today, more than 40 percent of the company’s 36,000 American factory workers earn entry-level wages, compared with about 20 percent at G.M. and 27 percent at Ford.

Before he could benefit from his lower-wage work force, Mr. Marchionne had to strip down Chrysler’s production after its 2009 bankruptcy.

He also retooled Chrysler’s organization by replacing veteran executives with a cadre of younger, unproven managers. While he set ambitious sales and financial targets, he gave his new team free rein to achieve them.

“He creates an environment that I call the pressure cooker approach,” said Bernardo Bertoldi, a business professor at the University of Torino in Italy, who helped write a recent Harvard Business School case study on Mr. Marchionne. “He provides the goals and gives them their freedom, but the pressure is on getting results.”

And after years of dysfunction under the ownership of the German automaker Daimler and then the private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, Chrysler took off. Once Chrysler joined with Fiat, the combined company began posting double-digit annual increases in revenue, reaching $109 billion last year. And after absorbing losses as it paid back more than $5 billion in loans from American taxpayers, F.C.A. has become solidly profitable, reporting $717 million in net income in 2014. The bulk of its income comes from the Chrysler side of the business.

Chrysler’s revival hinged on streamlining its manufacturing base and pouring resources into its strongest brands, in particular Jeep, which has a cultlike status in this country as the most rugged and stylish of American S.U.V.s and a worldwide appeal dating back to World War II.

“He saw the future with Jeep,” said Mike Manley, the brand’s chief. “I remember talking to him early when we were targeting sales of a half-million, and he said we can do a lot more.”

Fiat Chrysler has opened new plants in Italy and Brazil to accelerate Jeep sales in international markets, and a Chinese factory is coming next. Last year, F.C.A. sold about one million Jeeps globally. Mr. Marchionne is shooting for 1.9 million in 2018, and the success of the brand will be critical to the company’s overall results.


“You can’t help but be impressed with what Sergio has done so far,” said David Cole, former chairman of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. “But the question is whether he can achieve the kind of scale necessary to keep up with automakers twice his size.”

If all his growth targets are achieved, Mr. Marchionne expects Fiat Chrysler to hit seven million in sales in three years. “That plan is predicated on a whole pile of things I want to execute flawlessly,” he said. But in the next breath, he admitted that external events such as fluctuating oil prices and economic downturns could scuttle those ambitions quickly. “If I look at the history of this thing over the last 10 to 20 years,” he said, “we’ve always had something that came out of left field and made us very, very uncomfortable.”

A Union Showdown

Mr. Marchionne might be feeling pretty uncomfortable this summer when Detroit automakers enter contract talks with the U.A.W. When Chrysler last negotiated a contract in 2011, the carmakers were able to win concessions because Detroit’s auto industry was just beginning to recover from its financial collapse during the last recession. Now, however, F.C.A. and the other car companies boast of their robust finances, and the unions are determined to share in the bounty. That could mean an end to Mr. Marchionne’s unfettered use of lower-tier workers.

One of the union’s priorities is to raise wages for new workers and possibly place a cap on the number of lower-paid employees hired. Ford, for example, is required under the current contract to bump entry-level hires to full-wage status when their overall percentage at the company hits certain thresholds. Fiat Chrysler, however, has no such restrictions.

Union workers in its plants say the two-tier system has created rifts on the factory floor. “You can feel the separation in the plant and the animosity,” said Scott McGinnis, who is part of a team that trains workers for the assembly line at a plant in Sterling Heights, Mich. He says lower-tier hires like him resent that they have no way to reach the top of the wage scale, as workers do at Ford. “I’m very fortunate to have a job,” he said. “But with a wage progression system, I would at least know I’m working up toward something.”

Many veteran workers earning top wages are just as supportive of scaling back or eliminating the two-tier system. “It has created an ‘us and them’ mind-set where there’s some mutual resentment,” said Martha Grevatt, a skilled-trades worker at a plant in Warren, Mich., who was hired in the 1980s. “It’s all very detrimental to union solidarity.”

Mr. Marchionne, who last year earned more than $30 million, is unapologetic about his voracious hiring of lower-paid workers. “I’ve just responded to business needs,” he said. “I needed to make cars, and we hired people.”

He defends taking advantage of the two-tier system, but Mr. Marchionne admits that the pay gap among workers creates “seeds of instability.” He advocates a standard wage throughout the plants. The $28-an-hour wage that veteran workers now make should be reset at a lower level when they retire, he proposes. Union workers, however, hate this idea and are instead arguing for wage increases across the board in the coming contract.

Mr. Marchionne’s aggressive use of the two-tier system is characteristic of his forceful style, which has been known to backfire. Two years ago, he challenged federal regulators on their intention to seek a broad recall of older-model Jeeps. Those Jeeps had rear-mounted gas tanks that could catch fire in high-speed rear-end collisions. In a stunning departure from the protocol for resolving car safety issues, Mr. Marchionne requested a private, face-to-face meeting with Ray LaHood, then the transportation secretary, and managed to limit the number of vehicles recalled.

Now, however, N.H.T.S.A.’s new administrator, Mark R. Rosekind, has signaled that the agency will be much stricter in how it handles recalls. Last week, N.H.T.S.A. said it would hold a public hearing in July on whether Fiat Chrysler was doing enough to fix the 10 million vehicles it had recalled in a variety of safety actions, including the 1.5 million Jeeps with vulnerable gas tanks.

The Jeep fire issue is clearly a sore point with Mr. Marchionne. He contends that the S.U.V.s met all federal crash standards when they were built more than a decade ago and that F.C.A.’s agreement to install trailer hitches to mitigate the effect of an accident is a fine remedy.

Photo

Display cars at the Chrysler Technical Center in Auburn Hills, Mich., where Mr. Marchionne has his office. Credit Laura McDermott for The New York Times
While safety advocates have criticized the trailer-hitch remedy as insufficient, N.H.T.S.A. said this week that it would not reopen the Jeep investigation to explore other possible remedies. Still, F.C.A. could be facing enormous legal liabilities for gas tank fires. A jury in Georgia awarded $150 million in damages in April to the family of a 4-year-old boy who was killed in a Jeep fire in 2012. Fiat Chrysler has asked for a new trial in the case.

Courting Apple and Google

A few weeks ago, an aide to Mr. Marchionne called and said the C.E.O. wanted a follow-up discussion for this article. He had already sat for an extensive interview, but was steaming over the reaction to his consolidation manifesto in April. And he wanted to vent about it.

He consistently declined to comment publicly about his overture to G.M. or Ms. Barra’s unwillingness to meet with him about it. But during the follow-up interview he became visibly irritated by the suggestion that he had made Fiat Chrysler available for sale by broaching the topic.

“Look, if I wanted to sell I would have called a banker,” he said. “I wouldn’t have done an analysis on return on invested capital and margins that talk about the fact that we’re all in the same hole.”

As he did in an earlier interview, he seethed about how the escalating costs for new technology and products were “driving me nuts.” He contends that automakers waste billions duplicating efforts in developing new engines, safety technology and alternative-fuel vehicles. The conference call outcry was for the good of the entire auto industry and not because Fiat Chrysler was more vulnerable to rising costs than its bigger competitors.

Mr. Marchionne calculates that a combination with a larger automaker, such as G.M., can save several billion dollars a year by sharing costs for new vehicle platforms and parts.

“It’s fundamentally immoral to allow for that waste to continue unchecked,” he said.

No other auto executive has seen fit to agree him, publicly at least.

Skeptical Wall Street analysts are hard-pressed to envision interested suitors. Ford has stated that it is not looking at mergers. Ms. Barra, in her only public comments on the topic, said that doing a big deal would be a “distraction” for G.M. Volkswagen is said to have had interest in the past in F.C.A., but its management has not addressed the subject outright.

Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst, wrote in a research note to investors that auto companies “rarely seek merger partners willingly unless times are desperate.” Yet he did not discount the possibility that Mr. Marchionne’s position might encourage activist investors to push another auto company to consider a merger with F.C.A. “We have no knowledge of how all this will play out,” Mr. Jonas said.

Since opening the door for a possible merger with another car company, Mr. Marchionne has broadened his discussion about the industry’s future to include tech giants like Apple and Google.

Mr. Machionne recently made a three-day visit to California to meet with executives there, including Apple’s C.E.O., Timothy D. Cook. (An Apple spokesman declined to comment.) The trip underscored the evolving relationships between technology giants and traditional automakers. Fiat Chrysler and other car companies are potentially large customers for advanced communications and navigation equipment. But Google and Apple are also developing their own cars, and may one day need to team up with big automakers for manufacturing or marketing. If and when that happens, Mr. Marchionne will be eager to participate.

For now, he praises the companies as “disrupters” who will help redefine how cars are developed and operated, and that includes autonomous vehicles. “These things are real,” he told reporters after a recent speech in Toronto. “It’s not science fiction. They’re coming.”

That Mr. Marchionne expresses enthusiasm for disruption of his industry should come as no surprise. Few believed that he could marry a bankrupt Chrysler with broken-down Fiat and create a viable car company. But he did. Like it or not, the big gesture is the only kind Mr. Marchionne is willing to make.

>>> Self-driving vehicles could ravage future car sales

I have been talking of that for months, it will take few years but the move already started... This market is much bigger than any other... Most of German manufacturers will be heavily impacted, French one a little bit more and for sure will try to merge with the big German in a desperate move... Key for this business will be the autoparts, new client for them in the market...no such dependant anymore of few companies, mapping is also a key driver for this business (Here, Tom Tom, waze, ...)


Article from autoblog.com

Self-driving vehicles could ravage future car sales
If Projections Are Correct, Auto Industry Would Be Gutted

Car-sharing services and self-driving vehicles could combine to decimate the U.S. auto industry over the next quarter-century.

An analysis from Barclays Capital forewarns new-car sales will plummet 40 percent in the United States over the next 25 years, a drop that would have severe consequences for the Big Three and entire supply chain.

Families won't need more than one car because a single self-driving vehicle, like the new Google car pictured above, can handle drop-offs and pick-ups from multiple locations. Customers will rely on cheaper sharing services to take them elsewhere, according to the firm's "Disruptive Mobility" report. Each shared vehicle, it said, could replace as many as nine traditionally owned cars.

Automakers that rely on large-volume sales will be hit particularly hard and "would need to shrink dramatically to survive," analyst Brian Johnson wrote.

Some segments, such as pickup trucks and large vans, may be less susceptible to such drastic loss. But overall, Johnson sees autonomous cars and car sharing as "a further lid on the prospects" of automakers like Ford and General Motors.

Automation will endanger the livelihoods of tens of thousands of taxi drivers who will be replaced by "robot taxis" hailed via smartphones, he wrote. Although not specifically mentioned in the Barclays report, that prediction echoed one from only weeks ago that roughly 3.5 million truck drivers could lose their jobs to self-driving trucks.

Without drivers to pay, consumers will save money on transportation costs, both in terms of car-sharing services and the transportation of household goods. It may cost passengers 44 cents per mile in a self-driving taxi, versus the $3 to $3.50 they currently pay for an UberX ride, Johnson wrote.

NY Post : How painful is it to be a Twitter investor these days? So bad even Chr

How painful is it to be a Twitter investor these days? So bad even Chris Sacca is beginning to squawk.
The billionaire venture capitalist — one of Twitter’s earliest and biggest shareholders — signaled that he will soon launch a high-profile critique of the service.
That’s a big switch from Sacca’s longtime stance as a staunch defender of Twitter Chief Executive Dick Costolo, who is under pressure from investors to grow the social network’s stagnant user base.
“I am soon going to post a few things that I personally hope the Twitter team will accomplish,” Sacca said in an ominous blog post late Thursday. “So stay tuned for a few more of my thoughts about Twitter.”
Sacca, whose firm Lowercase Capital also has claimed stakes in Facebook, Instagram and Uber, didn’t elaborate on his beef with management.
Instead, the bearded moneyman — a former Google exec with a taste for cowboy shirts and broadcasting on Twitter’s Periscope live-streaming app — took pains to emphasize his long track record of backing the company’s execs.
“I always felt like the birdie was one of my children and I needed to defend it at all costs,” Sacca wrote.
The 40-year-old tech tycoon went on to profess his “love” for Twitter employees, saying many of them are “like family” to him.
“My wife and I even painted a room in our house the exact shade of the Twitter bird,” Sacca wrote.
His mindset changed, however, after a recent Periscope broadcast he did with CNBC’s Jim Cramer, in which the pair discussed Twitter’s problems.
“They haven’t told us how they’re going to commercialize” users, Cramer griped. Sacca voiced an interest in quantifying Twitter’s “total monetizable audience.”
Sacca’s blog post follows a disastrous first-quarter earnings report late last month that sent Twitter’s shares tumbling more than 25 percent. In a conference call, Costolo and financial chief Anthony Noto admitted that Twitter’s ads weren’t fetching prices as high as management had hoped.
To make matters worse, Twitter’s mobile monthly active users — a key metric for analysts as they look to gauge the company’s growth prospects — came in at 241.5 million, missing analysts’ estimates of 243 million.
“I believe without reservation that Twitter can soon evolve to be used by over 500 million people a month,” Sacca wrote. “ I believe there is no natural ceiling on the revenue Twitter can generate.”

(Barron's) An American Airlines Trade

An American Airlines Trade
Airline stocks, which fell about 11% last week on concerns about rising capacity growth, are now down 20% from January highs.

Airline stocks, which fell about 11% last week on concerns about rising capacity growth and potential fare cuts, have been ailing all year. Despite a windfall in the form of 30% lower jet fuel prices, the sector is down 20% from January highs.

In interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg last week, American Airlines Group (ticker: AAL) CEO Douglas Parker stoked the anxiety, previously quiescent, when he suggested his company would respond to capacity increases and fare cuts from competitors.


That seems innocuous, but his comments need historical context. Until recently and for many years, this sector was governed by one axiom: Investors “rented” airline stocks, never owned them. Younger readers might not realize that “Fare Sale” was the most common and most feared words in the industry in the 1990s. In a matter of a few years, carriers lost many billions of dollars—more than all the profits the industry had garnered since the beginning of commercial service in the 1920s.

Things have changed in the past decade. The airline profit renaissance has been attributed to managements across the board exhibiting more discipline, keeping capacity increases in line with actual demand, adding baggage fees, removing free food, and avoiding those decimating fare wars.

Yet the main reason the industry has been doing so well derives from its current oligopolistic structure, thanks to bankruptcies and mergers that followed those terrible times. The number of major U.S. carriers dropped to four from eight to 10 in the past decade. In any industry, if there are just three or four rivals holding most of the market, the urge to compete on price is much diminished. In the air-travel business, this has boosted profits for carriers but has cost consumers.

That’s not going to change soon, despite the fact that one of the big four, Southwest Airlines (LUV) is raising capacity a little more than expected. And a small discount carrier, Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is expected to increase it a lot, emboldened by substantial jet fuel savings. U.S. air-travel demand is rising about 2% to 3%, roughly in line with the U.S. gross domestic product, but domestic capacity in 2016 could rise by mid-single digit percentages.

As CreditSights analyst Roger King notes, “domestic capacity is whatever American, Delta, United Continental, and Southwest say it is.” With these four dominant in their own hubs, the capacity moves appear marginal—so far. Some of these carriers have nearly 100% share in key markets, so changes are more in the nature of “fine tuning,” he adds.

Industry metrics, like revenue per available seat mile, have softened recently, and it’s probable they will soften some more. It might be that the American CEO meant his comments to be a shot across the bow of discount airlines. A veteran, who no doubt remembers the fare wars, Parker will see 100% of his direct compensation paid entirely in stock beginning this month, so it’s a good bet he will be prudent.

“The industry’s capacity discipline is being tested, but once airline managements begin to see that too much capacity growth is not the right long-term decision for their shareholders, they should pull back,” says Kristopher Kelley, an airline analyst at Janus Capital Group, which owned a stake in United Continental Holdings (UAL) as of April 30.

As we head into the summer, traditionally a bumper-crop period for this group, the selloff on fears of an actual fare sale now appears premature. At $42.61, American trades at just 4.3 times consensus analyst earnings estimates for $9.86 a share this year—cheap enough for a summer fling.

Longer-term, if the fare genie were to escape from the bottle, history shows it takes a long time and industry carnage to get him back in. So after the summer, extra vigilance on airline stocks might be necessary.

>>> Basilea subject of takeover speculation - Tagesanzeiger

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Basilea, the listed, Swiss pharmaceuticals group, is considered to be a takeover candidate, Tagesanzeiger reported. The Swiss daily noted repeated market speculation which has led the Basilea share to gain 4.7%.

The original article appeared in print on page 43.

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