--> Top Picks : HAL, SLB, WFT and CAM
*
We are initiating coverage of the Oil Services, Equipment and Drilling Groupwith a cautious outlook that reflects our view the stocks have largely exhausted
the upside near term with only 10% upside on average to our Dec-2015 price targets
based on “normalized” 2017 estimates. We believe the market has priced in a U.S. rig
count recovery akin to the v-shaped one that followed the 2009 downturn.
However, we anticipate a more gradual recovery characterized by fits and starts as
E&Ps oscillate between rig adds and drops in sympathy with commodity swings.
* Looking through the cycle, difficult to find much upside in the group on a
“normalized” basis: With E&P capex budgets estimated down 38% in North America
and 17% internationally, the sector is currently plagued by underutilization, declining
pricing and challenged margins. In a trough, valuation on near-term results doesn’t
offer much perspective. Rather, we prefer to look towards the next cycle to see what
we think the group can earn on a “normalized” basis. With our expectation of a
recovery in activity beginning in 2016, we think 2017 can serve as a reasonable proxy
for mid-cycle earnings, though on this basis, valuations already look fairly full.
* We prefer scale, flexibility and differentiation: We favor the large cap diversifieds
and select NAM-levered stocks. We like onshore over offshore, and recommend
increasing leverage towards U.S. land when we think expectations reset to a more
attainable level. Our top picks are HAL, SLB, WFT and CAM among large caps, while
our best ideas for smid caps include MRC, NBR, SPN and CJES. Each has or is
undergoing idiosyncratic changes we believe can drive relative outperformance
irrespective of the recovery’s trajectory. Offshore drillers face structural challenges that
will likely take years to play out, and thus we have not found a credible contrarian
thesis to recommend. Our lone OW offshore is RDC, which we view as the most derisked
from a fleet and cash flow perspective, and attractive on valuation.