(BFW) Molson Coors Cut at Nomura;Lower Chance Buys Rest of MillerCoors


Molson Coors Cut at Nomura;Lower Chance Buys Rest of MillerCoors
2015-06-23 13:34:26.36 GMT


By Joshua Fineman
(Bloomberg) -- Molson Coors cut to neutral vs buy by Nomura
analyst Ian Shackleton, citing worsening volume, pricing trends
and lower probability TAP buys remainder of MillerCoors.

* Nomura removes 25% probability of TAP purchasing remainder
of MillerCoors, which was worth $4/shr
*
* Sees “minimal” probability of AB InBev buying
SABMiller, which would allows TAP to buy rest of
MillerCoors
* PT to $74 from $82, Bloomberg avg $85
* NOTE: Earlier, AB InBev CEO Prefers Acquisitions That Are
‘Near Beer,’ FT Says
*
* March 27, MegaBrew Is Left to Ferment After 3G Focuses
on Food: Real M&A
* March 13, AB InBev Unlikely to Bid for SABMiller for 5
Reasons, RBC Says


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To contact the reporter on this story:
Joshua Fineman in New York at +1-212-617-8953 or
jfineman@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Arie Shapira at +1-212-617-1488 or
ashapira3@bloomberg.net
Stefanie Batcho-Lino

>>> Drahi’s Bouygues Telecom Bid Opposed by Ex-M&A Banker Macron

Drahi’s Bouygues Telecom Bid Opposed by Ex-M&A Banker Macron 

(Bloomberg) -- Patrick Drahi’s bid for Bouygues Telecom is putting French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron, a former mergers banker, in the unusual position of opposing a takeover.
The proposed combination could result in job cuts, higher prices for consumers and a wireless operator with too much debt, Macron told reporters in Paris on Monday.
“At the end of the day, is it good for the economy? The answer is no,” Macron said. “Is it good for investment. The answer is no. Is it good for employment? The answer is no.”
He summoned Drahi, the chairman and founder of Altice SA, to his office overlooking the Seine on Tuesday to discuss the proposed merger. The reaction runs counter to his hands-off approach to French deals since taking office last year, and recalls the style of his predecessor, Arnaud Montebourg.
While the French state doesn’t have a direct say over a potential sale of Bouygues Telecom to Drahi, it can exert influence on deals in the highly regulated telecom industry.
“The government is likely to require job protection measures and guarantees on investments,” wrote Nawar Cristini, an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc., in a note.
Just hours after news of the offer became public on Sunday, Macron released a statement saying the timing isn’t right for consolidation and advising telecom moguls to invest in infrastructure rather than indulge in dealmaking.
Wireless Auctions
Drahi’s offer values the wireless carrier at about 10 billion euros ($11.3 billion), people with knowledge of the matter said. The bid was made by Numericable-SFR, the cable and mobile-phone unit of Altice, Drahi’s holding company.
The board of Bouygues SA, the parent of France’s third-largest mobile-phone operator, will meet Tuesday to discuss the unsolicited offer. The shares rose 0.2 percent by 9:55 a.m. in Paris trading, after surging 13 percent on Monday.
Prime Minister Manuel Valls also weighed in on Monday, saying there are five main issues to consider: the effect on jobs, investment, the sale of mobile frequencies, innovation and customer service.
“Any operation which doesn’t deal with these major issues won’t get support from the government,” Valls said while visiting a factory near Paris.
The government has said it’s seeking at least 2.5 billion euros in an auction of wireless licenses before year-end. From Macron’s standpoint, fewer carriers competing could lower the proceeds, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Leverage Concern
Altice executives plan to tell the minister that consolidation won’t curb carriers’ appetite for mobile frequencies, which is being fueled by the increasing use of smartphones to watch videos and play games over the Internet, people familiar with the matter said. The executives may also argue that going from four carriers to three will allow the industry to invest more in its networks.
Those assurances may ring hollow to Macron given the level of Altice’s borrowings. The firm had net debt of 24.5 billion euros, on a pro-forma basis, at the end of the first quarter, company reports show.
“I have a big concern in terms of leverage,” said Macron, 37, who worked as a banker at Rothschild for almost four years starting in 2008. “I don’t want to create a too-big-to-fail player” that would require a state bailout if it collapsed, he said.
Montebourg Meddling
After Montebourg’s tenure, notable for his meddling in the affairs of companies such as Alstom SA and Dailymotion SA, Macron had taken a less intrusive approach.
In October, he went to lengths to show he had no say in drugmaker Sanofi’s decision to oust Chief Executive Officer Chris Viehbacher. His team didn’t stand in the way of Nokia Oyj’s takeover of Alcatel-Lucent SA.
France is a big investor in its telecommunications industry, and owns about 26 percent of former phone monopoly Orange SA. Orange CEO Stephane Richard has repeatedly called for consolidation and said his company would do what it can to facilitate a deal, though it won’t take the lead.

FT : Orange CEO tells government to stop meddling in telecoms sector

Orange CEO tells government to stop meddling in telecoms sector

Stéphane Richard says politicians should be ‘more humble and cautious’ when talking about industry


The head of Orange has urged the French government to rein in its involvement in industry consolidation even as two of its rivals prepare to test Paris’s authority with a €10bn merger.

Stéphane Richard, chief executive of France’s biggest telecoms group, whose largest shareholder is the government, said that decisions over mergers and acquisitions would be “essentially a topic for the French antitrust authority. The government has really no tools in its hands to prevent this”.

The Socialist government of President François Hollande disagrees. On Monday, Emmanuel Macron, economy minister, said it could block a $10bn bid by Numericable-SFR, the country’s second biggest mobile operator, for Bouygues Telecom, the third largest. He called the deal, which would create the country’s largest operator, bad for consumers, investment and jobs.

Mr Richard told the Financial Times before news of the bid became public that several government attempts to stop or influence takeovers, including General Electric’s acquisition of Alstom’s energy business and the sale of SFR to billionaire Patrick Drahi, whose Altice cable group controls Numericable-SFR, had largely failed.

“Our politicians should be maybe a little more humble and cautious about what they say on the industry,” he said.

“The industry is made up of private companies and, in fact, what we have to take into account is antitrust [and] the legal process. Political wishes or statements are not really something which is so important.”

The French government has a 25 per cent stake in Orange, which Mr Richard acknowledged makes running the company more difficult.

“When you have the state, everything is political so it doesn’t make life easier,” he said.

“I would not say that the shareholder is a frustrating shareholder that opposes every kind of move that we want to do. But, of course, from time to time it makes things a little more complicated.”

Earlier this year, the government stepped in as Orange was preparing to sell a stake in Dailymotion, its video portal, to PCCW, the Hong Kong telecoms group. The stake was instead sold to Vivendi, the Paris-based media group controlled by Vincent Bolloré.

“The government expressed a preference both from a shareholder point of view and from an industrial policy point of view,” Mr Richard said.

But he added: “At the end of the day Orange’s interests, and our shareholders’ interests, have probably been better defended with the final deal than with PCCW.”

Mr Richard, who was chief of staff at the economy ministry under the previous centre-right government of Nicolas Sarkozy, stressed that the state had not stood in the way of his group’s other moves, such as its acquisition of Jazztel, the Spanish operator.

He also promised that Orange would continue to take a leading role in creating pan-European networks through acquisition, and suggested a number of smaller former incumbents — including KPN, Telecom Italia and Belgacom among them — could be vulnerable if Europe were able to create a single digital market.

“I don’t know when or what, but I am in favour of an ambitious Orange in Europe. We are looking, we are paying attention to everything going on,” he said.

Orange is also keen to expand in other markets, including in Africa and the Middle East, a region where Mr Richard found himself enmeshed in controversy in recent weeks.

He has just returned from a trip to Israel, where he was forced to explain why he said he wanted the company to quit the country because its presence there was a “sensitive issue” in other markets. Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s prime minister, called on the “French government to publicly repudiate the miserable statement and miserable action by a company that is under its partial ownership”.

Mr Richard insists that his comments were misreported and misinterpreted, adding that his family and home needed extra security following threatening calls and emails. But he says that just four of its 27m French customers left the business in the wake of the controversy.

The company has meanwhile turned its African business into a separate corporate vehicle which Mr Richard said was both to create a simpler structure that would provide better visibility and enable the group to be floated or partially sold to minority shareholders.
Mr Richard is also open to selling its telecoms mast infrastructure in countries outside France given the emergence of European tower companies searching for deals in recent months.

However, Mr Richard ruled out selling the company’s holding in BT. Orange was given a 4 per cent stake in the UK telecoms group as part of the £6bn price it received for its half share in EE, the mobile operator. Deutsche Telekom, which jointly owned EE with the French group, is believed to be interested in buying the stake but Mr Richard says he wants Orange to retain it for its long-term European plans.

Mr Richard describes Orange as a key “player” in the region. “Do we want to be a big pan-European player playing consolidation in Europe or not? In my view, we have a clear opportunity.”

(BofA-ML) Technical Market Strat.

Bullish setup for OEX vs. SPX as mega caps remain unloved

Time to think contrarian bullish on mega caps
The relative ratio of the S&P 100 (mega caps) vs. the S&P 500 (large caps) or OEX/SPX hit a 15-year relative low vs. the SPX in April. However, the massive falling or bullish wedge for OEX/SPX from late 2008 suggests that we should become contrarian bullish on mega caps. The pattern is similar to the early-to-mid 1990s when the OEX bottomed vs. the SPX, broke out from a bullish wedge, and then outperformed into the 2000 highs. We think the OEX is on a verge of another longer-term bullish wedge breakout vs. SPX that would set up a period of outperformance for mega caps.

>>> US Gapping Up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
: BBRY +8.3%, DRI +6.7%

M&A news: EXXI +3.6% (confirmed sale of its Grand Isle Gathering System to CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust (CORR) for $245 mln), SYT +0.5% (Chairman reaffirms stance regarding Monsanta (MON) takeover offer in video interview; states MON trying to buy the co on the cheap)

Select EU related names showing cont strength: ALV +2.4%, SHPG +1.9%, SNY +1.5%, UN +1.2%, ALU +1%

Other news: GDOT +30.6% (announced 5-year agreement with Walmart (WMT) and $150 mln stock buyback), PHMD +19% (announces the sale of its worldwide XTRAC and VTRAC psoriasis and vitiligo treatment businesses to MELA Sciences (MELA) for $42.5 mln in cash (MELA) shares halted) ), AMRN +15.6% (will present new in vitro eicosapentaenoic acid study data; found that EPA reduced cholesterol crystalline domain levels in cholesterol-enriched model membranes by 65%will present new in vitro eicosapentaenoic acid study data; found that EPA reduced cholesterol crystalline domain levels in cholesterol-enriched model membranes by 65%), BIND +7.5% (FDA authorizes clinical trial with AstraZeneca's (AZN) Aurora B kinase inhibitor), WAC +4.3% (Baker Street Capital disclosed 22.3% active stake in 13D filing), SGYP +4% (initiates a second Phase 3 clinical trial of Plecanatide), KEG +3.5% (named Robert Drummond President and COO)), NBG +3.1% (optimism of Greece deal in coming days), AMBA +3% (modest strength following yday's sell off), QURE +2.3% (Bristol-Myers Squibb discloses 4.9% passive stake in 13G filing; stake to rise to 9.9% upon future purchases required under agreement between the companies), MDR +2.2% (awarded a lump sum contract by LLOG Exploration Offshore, for services in the Gulf of Mexico), APPY +1.2% (to host an investor conference call to provide an update on regulatory and business matters, on Wednesday, June 24, 2015, at 4:30 p.m. ET), KRFT +1% (declares special cash dividend of $16.50 per share, conditioned upon closing of proposed merger with Heinz ), HZNP +1% (USPTO issues an additional notice of allowance with claims covering Ravicti oral liquid), RDUS +0.9% (favorable commentary on Monday's Mad Money), NSPH +0.8% (announced the presentation of new studies highlighting antibiotic resistance detection with its verigene blood culture tests), VIMC +0.8% (receives $22 mln contract for the provision of SVAC-compliant video surveillance cameras and system to Jincheng Municipal Government in Shanxi Province)

Analyst comments: CASI +6.6% (initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $2.50), LPCN +3.1% (initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; $15 tgt), DEO +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura), T +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), VOD +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura),YELP +1.4% (initiated with a Buy at Topeka Capital Markets ), PRGO +1.2% (initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital), CI +0.9% (target raised to $175 from $160 at Leerink Partners), JBLU +0.9% (upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley), DAL +0.9% (assumed with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley), IHG +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), SNN +0.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), GG +0.6% (upgraded to Action List Buy at TD Securities; $29 tgt
)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SONC -5.8%

M&A news: CTP -91.3% (announce negotiations with DHR International regarding an acquisition of the co expired with no definitive agreement for the sale of the co having been reached), CORR -3.4% (to acquire the Grand Isle Gathering System for $245 mln from Energy XXI (EXXI); announced 11.25 mln share offering of common stock; increased quarterly dividend to $0.60 from $0.54 per share)

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: HMY -4.3%, GFI -1.9%, SLV -1.2%, GOLD -1%, SLW -0.8%


Other news: VICL -48.6% (reported top-line results from the Phase 1/2 trial of its therapeutic genital herpes vaccine; neither monovalent nor bivalent vaccine met the primary endpoint), GLOP -8% (announced acquisition of three vessels from GasLog (GLOG) for $483 mln; announced a public offering of 7.5 mln common units), AXN -7.2% (filed for $50 mln mixed securities shelf offering), WSR -4.7% (to make a public offering of 3.75 mln of its common shares), TGEN -2.2% (filed for ~3.72 mln share common stock offering), XL -1.6% (reports of a 5 mln share block trade in the stock), GRBK -1.2% (announced proposed offering of 17 mln shares of common stock), VTG -1.2% (co announced it has retained Lazard to assist in review of financing and strategic opportunities)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: GDOT +29%, BBRY +9.2%, HK +5.8%, DRI +5.8%, WAC +4.3%, EXXI +3.6%, KEG +3.5%, NBG +3.1%, AMBA +3.1%, QURE +2.3%, ALV +2.3%, DEO +2.2%, T +1.9%, NSPH +1.6%, VOD +1.6%, SHPG +1.5%, SNY +1.5%, APPY +1.2%, RIG +1.1%, PRGO +1.1%, ARMH +1%, AA +0.9%, JBLU +0.5%

Gapping down: VICL -45.1%, GLOP -7.2%, SONC -5.6%, AXN -3.6%, CORR -3.4%, WSR -3%, TGEN -2.2%, XL -1.5%, XL -1.5%, SLV -1.4%, GRBK -1.2%, VTG -1.2%, SDRL -0.8%, GOLD -0.8%