(BFW) Greece Is Hoping for a Better Deal, Interior Minister Says



Greece Is Hoping for a Better Deal, Interior Minister Says
2015-06-28 06:02:41.428 GMT


By Paul Tugwell
(Bloomberg) -- Greece is hoping for a better deal from its
creditors with room to breathe for the country’s economy,
Interior Minister Nikolaos Voutsis says in live interview with
Athens-based Mega TV.

* Greece is sticking to its position of saying no to austerity
and insisting on talks about debt and investment
* Greek people expect an “honest” deal
* “The issue of little Greece has brought to the surface the
discussion on where the EU is going”
* There are no technical issues regarding organization of July
5 referendum, main cost isn’t high
* While prospect of new elections not being examined, govt
obliged to consider all options offered by constitution
* NOTE: Earlier, Tsipras Asking Grandma to Figure Out If Greek
Debt Deal Is Fair


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Paul Tugwell in Athens at +30-210-74-19-073 or
ptugwell1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Jerrold Colten at +39-02-8064-4261 or
jcolten@bloomberg.net
James Amott

(BFW) Schaeuble: Greeks Quitting Talks Is ‘Confusing, Depressing’: ZDF



Schaeuble: Greeks Quitting Talks Is ‘Confusing, Depressing’: ZDF
2015-06-27 22:45:05.725 GMT


By Angela Cullen
(Bloomberg) -- German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble
criticized the Greek government’s decision to abruptly quit
negotiations on an aid deal as “confusing” and “depressing,”
in an interview with ZDF television’s Heute Journal program.

* “That a government then suddenly stands up from the
negotiating table after the prime minister had sat together
with the state and government leaders, the German chancellor
and many others had gone to endless lengths, and then goes
home and does the complete opposite. That’s somehow not just
confusing but also depressing in such a difficult
situation.”
* NOTE: Euro Chiefs Turn to Damage Control as Greek Talks
Collapse


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Angela Cullen in Frankfurt at +49-69-92041-158 or
acullen8@bloomberg.net
Angela Cullen

(BFW) MORE: Tsipras Says Game of Bailout Has Come to an End



BFW 06/27 22:25 Tsipras Says Greece Made An Honest Effort to Negotiate
BN 06/27 23:24 *GREECE'S PARLIAMENT BEGINS VOTING ON REFERENDUM
BFW 06/27 23:04 *GREECE'S PARLIAMENT TO BEGIN VOTING ON REFERENDUM IN 5 MINUTES
BFW 06/27 22:34 *TSIPRAS SAYS REFERENDUM NOT MEANT AS RUPTURE WITH EUROPE
BFW 06/27 22:33 *TSIPRAS: GREEK PROPOSAL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEAL STILL ON TABLE
BFW 06/27 22:32 *TSIPRAS SAYS REFERENDUM WILL BE MOMENT OF TRUTH FOR CREDITORS
BN 06/27 22:31 *TSIPRAS SAYS NOW TIME FOR DEEP POLITICAL, SOCIAL CONSENSUS
BN 06/27 22:20 *TSIPRAS SAYS EXTREME VOICES PREVAILED AMONG CREDITORS
BN 06/27 22:19 *TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE MADE AN HONEST EFFORT TO NEGOTIATE
BN 06/27 22:15 *TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE CAN'T GO BACK
BFW 06/27 22:15 *TSIPRAS SAYS GAME OF BAILOUT HAS COME TO AN END
BN 06/27 22:11 *TSIPRAS: SCHAEUBLE, DIJSSELBLOEM CAN'T DICTATE GREEK DEMOCRACY
BN 06/27 22:09 *TSIPRAS: EUROGROUP HAD NO RIGHT TO EXCLUDE GREECE FROM MEETING
BN 06/27 22:06 *GREEK PM TSIPRAS SPEAKS TO LAWMAKERS IN PARLIAMENT
BN 06/27 21:54 *SAMARAS SAYS HIS PARTY WILL VOTE FOR STAYING IN THE EURO AREA
BFW 06/27 21:39 *GREEK PARLIAMENT RESUMES DEBATE ON REFERENDUM

MORE: Tsipras Says Game of Bailout Has Come to an End
2015-06-27 23:00:28.739 GMT


By Eleni Chrepa and Vassilis Karamanis
(Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras,
speaking in Parliament, said referendum vote is not meant as
rupture with Europe.

* A sustainable agreement for Greece is still “on the table”
* Tsipras says referendum will be “moment of truth” for
creditors
* The matter of Greece is not a game, Tsipras says
* NOTE: Earlier, Tsipras Says Greece Made An Honest Effort to
Negotiate



For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Eleni Chrepa in Athens at +30-210-741-9034 or
echrepa@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Jerrold Colten at +39-02-8064-4261 or
jcolten@bloomberg.net
Theophilos Argitis

WSJ : Fear of Losing Out Drives Deal Boom

Fear of Losing Out Drives Deal Boom
With $2.15 trillion of M&A activity so far, this year is on pace to challenge 2007 record

For years after the financial crisis, fear kept corporate chiefs from striking merger-and-acquisition deals. Now it is prompting them to act.

Companies are merging at a pace unseen in nearly a decade. Halfway through the year, about $2.15 trillion in M&A deals or offers have been announced globally, according to Dealogic. That puts 2015 on pace to challenge the biggest year on record, 2007, when companies inked deals worth $4.3 trillion.

What is fueling the surge in part, bankers and lawyers say, is executives’ fear of being left behind rivals who strike deals to make them bigger and more efficient. In many cases, companies are concerned that if they don’t gain heft through acquisitions, they will become takeover prey themselves.

In industries ranging from health care to technology to media, chief executives are rushing to make acquisitions, often either in anticipation of takeover moves by rivals or in response to them. The resulting corporate realignments affect executives, employees, customers and suppliers.

The wave of activity began early last year, propelled by a cocktail of cheap debt, abundant cash on corporate balance sheets and rising stock prices. A relatively stable economy gave corporate executives confidence that the ground wouldn’t shift too much underneath them. When competitors began striking deals, the race was on.

Now, in many boardrooms, directors are strategizing about whether to make a takeover approach or how to respond to one.

“There’s increased competitive and strategic pressure to act,” says Gregg Lemkau, co-head of global M&A at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the top bank adviser on takeovers so far this year, with more than $700 billion in deals to its credit.

Mr. Lemkau says there is a chance that 2015 will wind up being the biggest year ever for M&A, given other large deals in the works.

Certain industries have become hotbeds of M&A activity.

In the space of three months this spring, there were three major deals in the semiconductor industry.

In early March, NXP Semiconductors NV agreed to buy Freescale Semiconductor Ltd. for $11.8 billion. Next, Avago Technologies Ltd. struck a $37 billion deal to buy Broadcom Corp.—the largest pure-technology deal ever. Then Intel Corp. agreed to purchase Altera Corp. for $16.7 billion.


People involved in those deals say chip companies are trying to gain scale to better cope with rising semiconductor input costs—and to avoid being eclipsed by rivals who may become more competitive as a result of their own deal making.

More recently, there has been a flurry of merger talks in the health-insurance industry. The federal health-care overhaul had for years prompted predictions of consolidation in the sector.

Recently, Humana Inc. hung a for-sale sign. Then, in short order, UnitedHealth Group Inc. approached Aetna Inc., which then made a takeover proposal for Humana. Earlier this month, Anthem Inc. made a series of buyout offers for Cigna Corp., which itself is eyeing Humana. An acquisition of Humana could be announced as early as Monday, according to people familiar with the matter.

Such frenzies were rarely seen in the five years after the banking crisis in 2008 pitched the global economy into deep recession.

During that period, companies were largely focused inward. They sought to shore themselves up by slashing costs and directing much of their discretionary spending toward share buybacks and dividends, which are seen as a way of rewarding shareholders and are considered less risky than M&A.

The subsequent deal surge is good news for advisers, who are reaping considerable fees, and for many of the executives involved, who can gain either bigger jobs or lucrative “golden parachutes” upon departure.

But not everyone benefits. When mergers fail to live up to their promise, shareholders suffer. That proved true in Hewlett-Packard Co.’s ill-fated purchase of Autonomy Corp. in 2011, and in America Online Inc.’s 2000 agreement to combine with Time Warner Inc.
And because job cuts are a signature component of M&A, employees often suffer.

Through May of this year, there have been about 8,800 announced merger-related job cuts, which translates to an annual pace of about 21,000, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., an outplacement-services and executive-coaching company. That is less than in the last takeover boom. In 2006, for example, there were nearly 77,000 such cuts, according to the company’s data.

John Challenger, the firm’s chief executive, says there have been fewer job cuts during this boom partly because companies had already shed so many employees during the recession. In many cases, he says, they are in need of skilled workers, especially in industries like technology and health care that are consolidating now.

“More and more, one of the biggest things that hampers growth is companies can’t get the skilled workers they need,” he says.

It isn’t clear how long the whirl of activity will last. There still are powerful forces restraining M&A activity, including troubles in the eurozone and antitrust concerns, which were in evidence recently when a judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking Sysco Corp.’s planned acquisition of US Foods Inc. on antitrust grounds.

Although overall economic growth remains sluggish, some M&A advisers say that is spurring deal making because it provides an extra incentive to find combinations that bring new sources of revenue and opportunities to enhance profit through expense cuts.

In April, XPO Logistics Inc. struck its largest deal ever when it agreed to buy French contract-logistics firm Norbert Dentressangle SA in a transaction valued at about $3.5 billion, including debt. Bradley Jacobs, XPO’s chief executive, says M&A has long been part of the company’s plan. While it is riskier than so-called organic growth, he says, it can have huge benefits if it is done right.

“In this industry, there are major advantages to scale,” he says. “You can take out costs and pass on the savings to customers. You can add billions to revenue overnight and condense a process that would otherwise take years.”

The last M&A boom involved many big leveraged buyouts, in which private-equity firms are the purchasers. This time around, private-equity firms have largely been squeezed out by corporate buyers, which tend to be able to pay more because they later can cut overlapping costs.

Three-quarters of U.S. deal volume this year has involved companies buying other companies, according to Dealogic. At the same point in 2007, 54% of the activity fit that description.

The stock market’s reaction to many deals is spurring deal makers. In 2013, the shares of a number of companies that made acquisitions rose on the news—the opposite of what often had happened.

When drug maker Endo International PLC agreed to buy Paladin Labs Inc. in November 2013, its stock rose 29% from the day before the deal was announced until a day after. And when cybersecurity firm FireEye Inc. agreed early last year to buy security-services firm Mandiant Corp., FireEye stock shot up 31% over a similar period.

Chief executives, who tend to watch their stocks like hawks, took note and stepped up their research on potential acquisition targets, bankers and lawyers say. Last year, many of those searches led to deals, which in turn begot others.

“Everyone who watched all those deals happening said, ‘Wow, for the right deal, the market will reward both target and acquirer,’” says Scott Barshay, head of the corporate department at Cravath Swaine & Moore LLP, a leading M&A law firm. Mr. Barshay, who has been a deal lawyer since 1991, says this is the busiest he has ever been.

In May, Ascena Retail Group Inc., the parent company of apparel retailer Dressbarn, signed its largest deal ever when it agreed to pay about $2 billion for Ann Taylor parent Ann Inc. Ascena’s stock rose following the deal.

“It’s an encouraging reaction, and it showed support from our investors and Wall Street,” says David Jaffe, chief executive of Ascena.

In 2013, the stock prices of U.S. acquiring companies rose 4%, on average, from the day before a deal was announced until the day after announcement, according to Dealogic. In 2014, they rose 3%, and so far this year, nearly 4%. Between 2008 and 2011, the average acquiring company’s stock dropped.

In February, financial-technology company SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc. agreed to buy rival Advent Software Inc. for about $2.4 billion, its largest deal ever, by far. SS&C Chairman and Chief Executive Bill Stone had first approached Advent 20 years ago. He did so again late last year, he says, and this time it led to a deal. SS&C shares rose 8% on the announcement.

“It’s been a long period of pulling your horns in,” Mr. Stone says, adding that until recently, “people didn’t let their animal spirits be released.”

Now, he says, “after so much time and so many buybacks and dividends, people start to say they need to strengthen their business and grow.”

>>>BofA-ML : first thoughts on Greece

GReferendum! Given the markets were pricing in a high probability of a deal, expect a reversal of some of the price action from this week, as uncertainty rises again. Equities and peripherals should start off the week offered while Bunds and Treasuries rally. Here is the latest from Thanos Vamvakidis: (1) The parliamentary vote on the referendum will take place after 5pm London time today. 151 (out of 300) votes will be enough to approve the referendum. (2) The referendum will be YES or NO for the creditors’ proposal. Syriza is arguing that the referendum is about the creditors’ proposals and not about the Euro. The opposition parties are arguing that it is about the euro. The government has not clarified what happens after the referendum and what YES or NO suggest. (3) Some experts have argued that the referendum is unconstitutional because it will be on fiscal policy, which is clearly not allowed by the Constitution. However, it seems that the President has not expressed such concerns and has allowed the Referendum to go ahead. (4) The Eurogroup meeting will still take place today. Some press reports suggest that the Eurogroup may withdraw the creditors’ proposal. In this case, it is not clear what the referendum will be about. The Greek government will ask the Eurogroup to extend the current program by a week, after it ends this Tuesday, to allow the ECB to continue funding the Greek banks. (5) The ECB will decide on the ELA tomorrow. Representatives of the Greek government will meet with Draghi today to ask him to keep funding the Greek banks next week. The Greek media show videos and pictures of long queues outside ATMs. Some Greek banks have suspended their internet banking. (6) The Greek government has said that Greece will not repay the IMF loan that matures on Tuesday (€1.

FT : Eurozone rejects Greek request for bailout extension

The eurozone’s finance ministers have rejected the Greek government’s request to extend its EU bailout programme through next week’s surprise referendum, a move that will probably force Athens to hold the vote in the midst of unpredictable instability.
According to two eurozone officials, the ministers rejected the request after three hours of deliberations and, after a brief recess, were to reconvene their emergency meeting without the Greek delegation to discuss “plan B” — how to protect the rest of the eurozone from a Greek default.

Earlier Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, stunned his nation and its international creditors by announcing a referendum on the final bailout offer made to his country, arguing only the Greek people should decide how to “answer this ultimatum”.
The creditors had been preparing to present a new compromise offer to the Greek authorities that, according to one EU diplomat, included “lots of things they could sell”. But the decision by Mr Tsipras to overtly reject last Thursday’s previous creditor text and use it as the basis of a national referendum short-circuited hopes of striking a deal at Saturday’s meeting.
The rejection of the extension — Mr Tsipras had originally suggested “a few days”, but Yanis Varoufakis, finance minister, said he was seeking a month — raises questions about what will be voted on in next Sunday’s referendum.
The bailout is now scheduled to expire on Tuesday, meaning there will be no programme in place when Greek voters go to the polls to offer a verdict on a creditors’ proposal to complete the programme and gain access to €15.3bn in remaining bailout funds.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chaired the meeting, suggested even if Greece voted to approve the bailout plan it would be hard for its eurozone partners to continue to trust Mr Tsipras’s leftwing Syriza government to implement it — hinting a new government would be necessary.
“If a government has spoken so negatively about the package and approach, then there is little credibility that even after a Yes [vote] that it would implement it in a right and conscientious way,” Mr Dijsselbloem told reporters after the Greek delegation left the meeting.
He said that the two sides were still engaged in negotiations on Friday evening in an effort to strike a deal when the Greek team was pulled out ahead of the referendum announcement.
He said that the programme would now expire on Tuesday night and warned that even if the government sought to reopen negotiations after the referendum, Greece would suffer gravely.
“I think we have to realise that [during] the in-between period the situation in Greece will deteriorate very rapidly,” Mr Dijsselbloem said. “How does the Greek government think it will survive and deal with the problems in that period I do not know.”
Mr Varoufakis said his government had been willing to reshuffle its coalition or its cabinet in order to win eurozone backing for a renegotiated agreement, quoting Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president: “We would do whatever it takes.”
A key issue now will be the continued functioning of the Greek financial system. One person familiar with the matter said a teleconference had been scheduled for Sunday morning between the Bank of Greece and the European Central Bank to discuss options for possible capital controls to be imposed from Monday.
One option would be to declare a bank holiday, rather than formal restrictions on capital movements, until a referendum was held. But Mr Varoufakis told Reuters that the banks should stay open during the referendum period. The government has the final say on capital controls, although the Greek banking system has been relying heavily on ECB liquidity support to keep functioning.
Mr Varoufakis said he had hoped a programme extension would have given negotiators more time to strike a deal that his government could then recommend to voters when they went to the polls on Sunday.
“The proposal on the table from the institutions was technically inadequate,” Mr Varoufakis said. “The numbers simply did not add up.”

Barron's : What If Greece Defaults?

What If Greece Defaults?
Maybe the Greeks should use the options market to cash in on their crushing debt crisis.Also, will U.S. stocks see one of their major supports--share buybacks—shrink?

The saga of the Greek debt crisis seems almost as long, with nearly as many twists and turns, as that of Odysseus. And like those of us who had to plod our way through Homer’s epic in school so many years ago, the financial markets cannot seem to avoid Greece and its ongoing struggle to remain in the euro zone, while it copes with an outright economic depression.

At the beginning of last week, there was short-lived optimism that the Greek government was at least talking to its key creditors: the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank. But by week’s end, the negotiations had broken down. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she and French President François Hollande had urged Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to accept an “extraordinarily generous” offer from the creditors. Tsipras’ reaction: Greece wouldn’t give in to “blackmail and ultimatums.”

With a crucial meeting set for Saturday to stave off default on a key June 30 payment due the IMF, the consensus seemed to be that yet another 11th hour and 59th minute deal would emerge. Indeed, Greece’s inflexible stance has led many to believe it’s a negotiating tactic conceived by its finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, an economist who specializes in game theory, to wring the best deal from its creditors. And to add to the uncertainty, at week’s end Tsipras called on Greek voters to vote on July 5 on whether to accede to further austerity demands by international creditors.

These developments raise a crucial question: What if Greek officials aren’t bluffing and are preparing for a default? That could lead to capital controls, the shuttering of banks, and even an exit from the euro zone, and, in turn, a global financial crisis the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

As Rahm Emanuel commented when he was White House chief of staff early in the Obama administration, never let a good crisis go to waste. Greece’s Treasury could scrape together its remaining euros to buy put options on global bourses to cash in on the crisis, and then use the profits to pay down a portion of its crushing debt, now equal to 175% of gross domestic product.

It’s not as if previous Greek governments have been averse to utilizing financial derivatives to bolster their fiscal position. With the assistance of Goldman Sachs (ticker: GS), Greece entered into complex currency swaps early in the past decade to disguise its borrowing, in order to be admitted to the euro zone.

Even though it would be cheap to bet on a market decline, given the depressed level of options premiums, it’s unlikely that Athens would take this Swift action to adopt Barron’s modest proposal to raise some quick cash and pay down some debt.

But other governments have purposely utilized the equity markets as a policy tool. The Federal Reserve partially explained its past pumping of money into the financial system through massive purchases of securities as a means to lift the prices of assets, notably stocks, and, in turn, bolster investment and spending. The central bank has succeeded in its first aim, with major U.S. equity indexes near records.

In Japan, monetary expansion is a cornerstone of Abenomics, and with it, the lifting of stock prices, which still remain at just above half of their 1989 bubble peak. In China, the stunning ascent in stocks since late last year not only has drawn in millions of individuals, but also has provided a means for overly leveraged state-owned enterprises to bolster their balance sheets and replace debt with equity.

To be sure, the markets expect a benign outcome in this turn of the Greek odyssey. The Athens bourse actually rallied 16% last week, including a 2% pop on Friday, ahead of the outcome of the weekend’s negotiations. The yield on Greek two-year bonds, a key barometer of confidence in the nation’s finances, fell sharply, albeit to a crisis-level 21% from 30%.

In its midyear investment outlook, Barclays Capital suggested that a Greece-induced selloff would be a signal to buy the proverbial dip, especially in European equities. Any market mayhem would be met with an aggressive ECB response, in keeping with the pledge of nearly three years ago from the bank’s president, Mario Draghi, to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, according to Barclays and a wide array of other market observers.

But a steep slide in China’s market isn’t an automatic buying opportunity, Barclays contends. With a 7.4% drop on Friday, the Shanghai Composite is close to bear-market territory, down 19% from its recent high, hit on June 12. A serious setback in China would have major repercussions, Barclays said, but it doesn’t expect that to happen.

Beijing authorities, who typically like to talk up the market when it encounters the inevitable air pockets, also appeared relatively unfazed. With the Shanghai Composite up 70% since the beginning of November and an average price/earnings ratio of 85 times (“nothing to see here,” commented Babson Capital), spurred on by margin buying by newly minted individual investors, the government seemed to treat the escape of some gas from this bubble with equanimity.

So, heading into halftime for 2015, Europe is at an impasse, with Greece saddled with debts it can’t pay and its creditors unwilling to hand over more cash without reforms. China, meanwhile, appears to be entering a bear market, despite massive monetary easing by its central bank as its economy slows. The consensus thinks these problems are contained. That, it might be recalled, is what was said about subprime mortgages in the past decade.

Back in the U.S. of A., the major market averages continue to hover around historic highs like a drone. And one of the prime factors keeping them aloft has been stock repurchases, but for how long?

Howard Silverblatt, the keeper of the statistical trove at S&P Dow Jones Indices, observes that 20% of Standard & Poor’s 500 companies have bought back stock in sufficient quantity to boost earnings per share by some 4% from the level a year earlier. That provides a tail wind going into second-quarter earnings reporting season, which begins in a few weeks. “Buybacks have now become part of the market support system,” along with low interest rates, he observes.

But buybacks are tailing off, according to BCA Research. The math is shifting as corporate bond yields creep higher, while earnings yields (the reciprocal of P/E ratios) edge downward; so, the arbitrage opportunity to borrow in the bond market to buy back stock has dwindled.

Moreover, BCA adds that corporate credit quality is deteriorating at the margin, and that buybacks tend to dry up when balance sheets swell.

The stock market’s dependence on the credit market is also noted by the perspicacious Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group. The much-commented-upon weakness in the Dow Jones Transportation Average coincides with the backup in the benchmark 10-year Treasury note’s yield, from a low of 1.64% on Jan. 30 to 2.48% on Friday, the high for the year.

“I could be grasping at straws, but the transportation index peaked on Dec. 29, the utility sector [XLU for Utilities Select Sector SPDR fund] topped a day before the 10-year yield bottomed and is at a 10-month low, and the real estate investment trust sector [ iShares US Real Estate ETF (IYR)] did so three days before that and yesterday closed at an eight-month low,” he wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “These last two sectors are an obvious response to the rise in rates, but the Industrial Sector SPDR ETF [XLI] topped on Feb. 20 and closed yesterday at near a five-month low. The Materials Sector SPDR ETF [XLB] peaked on Feb. 24 and is at a 10-week low.”

Boockvar says he doesn’t know if this is because of global growth concerns, earnings worries, or consolidation of the gains of the past few years. “What I do know is that financial conditions continue to tighten, however modestly. It started with the end of Fed QE; it continued with the stronger U.S. dollar, which was then followed by the rise in long-term interest rates, which in turn has raised the cost of corporate capital as the Moody’s Baa yield index is at the highest level in almost a year and a half.”

What’s clear, Boockvar concludes, is that the markets will lead to the next recession, not the other way around, which historically has been the pattern. Asset-price appreciation has driven this expansion, and the previous two recessions were caused by their reversals after the dot-com and housing busts. “This is what happens when the Fed creates an asset-price-dependent economy, rather than the old days of asset prices reflecting the underlying fundamentals,” he concludes.

To end on a positive note, congratulations to James Grant for being honored with the Gerald Loeb Lifetime Achievement Award for Distinguished Business and Financial Journalism. Jim, who originated the Current Yield column before starting the influential Grant’s Interest Rate Observer in 1983, last week joined other distinguished former Barron’s staff members in being so recognized. They included our other old pals Floyd Norris, the one-time Trader columnist and later chief financial correspondent at the New York Times, and, of course, the original writer of this column, Alan Abelson.

Barron's : Range Resources Could See Fat Profits

Range Resources Could See Fat Profits
The Fort Worth, Texas–based company has been beset lately by problems, but a rebound in natural gas prices could mean a big swing up.

Fort Worth, Texas–based Range Resources (ticker: RRC), a natural-gas producer, has been beset lately by problems. As Pennsylvania’s most active driller, it faces a record fine for a natural-gas well that reportedly contaminated groundwater. Natural-gas prices have also been depressed, which means that earnings are slumping.

This year Range is expected to earn 53 cents a share on revenue of $1.8 billion, down from $1.49 a share on $2 billion of revenue in 2014. Earnings could fall even further, to 38 cents, in 2016. That would put Range shares, which fetched $49 last week, down from $87 a year ago, at 129 times 2016 estimated earnings.

Ironically, that gargantuan multiple has sparked interest in the shares among some value investors. Dave Perkins, who co-manages the Weitz Value (WVALX) and Weitz Research (WRESX) funds, notes that Range is the 14th-largest natural-gas producer in the continental U.S., even though it discovered the Marcellus Shale, America’s most prolific natural-gas field, a decade ago. It controls 1.6 million acres in the Appalachian basin and owns some of the lowest-cost acreage in the Marcellus, where the break-even cost on natural-gas production could range from $2.10 to $3.50 per million cubic feet equivalent, according to Credit Suisse.

Perkins thinks Range could be profitable at $2.50 per mcfe “in all but the most dire price environments.” The company has driven production and operating costs lower by more than 40% since 2008, he notes. It has resources of between 66 trillion and 87 trillion cubic feet of gas equivalent, excluding the 400,000 acres it controls in the emerging Utica formation.

The company is getting more efficient at figuring out the best way to fracture wells, he says. He figures Range has lowered the cost of replacing existing reserves to about 54 cents per mmcfe.

Eventually, Perkins says, the price of gas has to improve. Supply has swelled in the Northeast, and transportation infrastructure has failed to keep pace. But new pipeline capacity is allowing lower-cost Marcellus gas to displace higher-cost gas across the middle states and the Southeast. With a 50% decline in rig counts in the past year, there could be an associated drop in gas production.

Demand growth, meanwhile, is coming from greater export appetite, coal-plant retirements, and new industrial plants. That might even restore gas prices to $4 in a couple of years, from $2.77 now. Although the short term looks bleak, analysts are more sanguine further out. They see Range’s earnings rising to $1.61 a share in 2017 on revenue of $2.64 billion, and to $4.39 in 2018, on revenue of $3.07 billion.

Perkins believes the stock is worth at least $100, with downside to $47, or around the current price. “That’s why we’re really attracted to it,” he says. “We see rising production, reserves, cash flow, and earnings at a pretty compelling price, without a lot of risk of permanent loss.”

Barron's : Hella Looks Like a Bargain in Auto Technology

Hella Looks Like a Bargain in Auto Technology
The maker of lighting technology could prosper as demand for its niche products grows.

Hella KGaA Hueck, a German supplier of lighting technology and electronics components to the automotive industry, could reward investors nicely in the year ahead. The shares have rallied almost 40%, to 44.47 euros ($49.60), since the company came public last November. But the stock still looks undervalued, and could have more firepower.

Hella trades for 14 times estimated earnings for the fiscal year ending May 31, 2016, and has a market capitalization of nearly €5 billion. Based on the outlook for stronger vehicle sales, and growing demand for Hella’s niche products, analysts think the shares (ticker: HLE.Germany) could command as much as 18 times expected profit. That would put the stock at €57, suggesting a return of close to 30%.

Hella traces its roots to a company established in 1899 to make lanterns, headlamps, and horns for bicycles, carriages, and automobiles. The Hueck family, which has controlled the company for 90 years, has pledged to retain a 60% stake through 2024.

Hella, which now produces headlamps, interior lamps, and lighting electronics, has a 12% share of the global market for automotive lighting. Germany is its largest market, accounting for 40% of revenue; customers include Volkswagen (VOW.Germany), Daimler (DAI.Germany), and Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW.Germany).

In the year ended May 2014, Hella reported sales of €5.34 billion, on which it earned €226 million, translating to €2.04 per share. The company is expected to benefit this year from an estimated 2.5% uptick in global vehicle sales, although that forecast could prove conservative. European manufacturers such as Hella will get a helping hand from a weaker euro, which could inflate sales by as much as 6%.

Analysts expect revenue and profit to grow by high single digits, at least, in the next few years. Hella is expected to report earnings of €2.94 million, or €2.71 a share, for the fiscal year just ended, on revenue of €5.73 billion, with earnings climbing to €3.18 a share in fiscal 2016, on revenue of €6.14 billion.

HELLA IS POSITIONED to benefit from demand for products that address environmental and safety considerations; the growing importance of lighting as a design differentiator; and dominant positions in applications such as light-emitting diodes, or LEDs. The company is a market leader in LED headlamps. LED lights are more expensive than halogen or xenon lights, but last longer and offer emissions advantages, an important factor as regulations toughen.

There is scope for Hella to increase profit in its aftermarket business, which accounts for 20% of sales, especially as the unit’s 7% profit margin compares poorly with an average of 16% at rivals.

The company spends about 10% of revenue on research and development, but may have passed a peak in its spending cycle. Analysts at Deutsche Bank say to expect the spending-to-sales ratio to fall to 9% or lower in the intermediate term.

With net debt equal to just 0.5 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization at about 0.5 times, Hella’s balance sheet looks sound. The company offers a value-priced play on growth in the automotive market.

*DIJSSELBLOEM: NO AGREEMENT WITH GREEK PROGRAM TO EXPIRE TUESDAY



From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: Jun 27 2015 17:43:46
Subject: Fwd:*DIJSSELBLOEM: NO AGREEMENT WITH GREEK PROGRAM TO EXPIRE TUESDAY
OOPS!!!!

*DIJSSELBLOEM: PROGRAM EXPIRATION IS `ABSOLUTELY CLEAR'
*DIJSSELBLOEM: THERE ARE MAJOR PROBLEMS ALREADY FOR GREECE
*DIJSSELBLOEM: AIM IS TO UPHOLD, STRENGTHEN EUROZONE CREDIBILITY
*DIJSSELBLOEM: WE ARE DETERMINED TO WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER
*DIJSSELBLOEM: GREEK GOVT FACES `BIG PROBLEM' OF RISK MANAGEMENT

*VAROUFAKIS: EUROGROUP VETO OF PROGRAM EXTENSION DAMAGES EUROPE
*VAROUFAKIS: `HIGH PROBABILITY' OF YES VOTE WITH LONGER PROGRAM
*GREEK FINANCE MINISTER YANIS VAROUFAKIS SPEAKS TO REPORTERS
*VAROUFAKIS SAYS TOLD EUROGROUP WHY ITS AID OFFER UNACCEPTABLE
*VAROUFAKIS: GREEK GOVERNMENT HAD NO MANDATE TO ACCEPT AID OFFER
*VAROUFAKIS SAYS GREEK GOVERNMENT DETERMINED TO FIND A SOLUTION
*VAROUFAKIS SAYS GREECE FIND ITSELF AT `HISTORIC MOMENT'
*VAROUFAKIS SAYS CREDITOR AID OFFER `BAKED IN' NEW AID PROGRAM
*VAROUFAKIS SAYS CREDITOR AID OFFER WAS RECESSIONARY
*VAROUFAKIS SAYS TOLD EUROGROUP WHY ITS AID OFFER UNACCEPTABLE