Asian Mid-session Update: Japan Tankan boosted by strong CAPEX; China PMIs little changed
***Economic Data***
-(JP) JAPAN Q2 TANKAN MANUFACTURING INDEX: 15 (5-quarter high) V 12E; LARGE ALL INDUSTRIAL CAPEX Y/Y: 9.3% (9-year high) V 5.3%E LARGE MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK: 16 (7-year high) V 14E
- (CN) CHINA JUN FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.4 V 49.6E; 4th month of contraction
- (JP) JAPAN JUN FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.1 V 49.9 PRELIM
- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: 2.4% V 1.2%E; Y/Y:17.6% V 14.4%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN CORELOGIC HOUSE PRICES M/M: +2.1% V -0.9% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN AIG MANUFACTURING INDEX: 44.2 V 52.3 PRIOR (2-year low)
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JUNE HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 46.1 V 47.8 PRIOR (weakest since Sept 2012)
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JUN TRADE BALANCE: $10.2B V $8.5BE
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JUN CPI M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.7%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.2% PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi +0.9%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng closed, Sept S&P500 +0.3% at 2,061
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Aug gold +0.1% at $1,173/oz, Aug crude oil -1.2% at $58.79/brl, Sept copper +0.1% at $2.62/lb
- (US) API Petroleum Inventories: Crude +1.90M v -1Me (first build in 4 weeks)
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥70B in 1yr JGBs, ¥375B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥425B in 3-5yr JGBs
***Market Focal Points/FX***
-After a modest bounce on Wall St, Asian trading session is also seeing some cautiously renewed optimism. Investors await further clarity on the Greek situation, the latest US jobs reports, and signs that Beijing was successful in putting the floor under the plummeting A-share market.
In Greece, Athens' request for a bailout extension was met with German response to cancel the referendum. Even though, Syriza may be headed for a loss if the referendum does take place and thereby a political defeat, PM Tsipras remains hopeful that his latest gambit would produce a breakthrough. His situation does appear to be dire however, since his proclamation of a euro area break up in the event of Grexit has not been reflected in either FX or the peripheral fixed income markets. In the mean time, Greece is technically "in arrears" with the IMF, having missed the 6pmET deadline to pay its debt. Fitch joined S&P in cutting Greek sovereign credit rating to CC from CCC after the US market close, citing rising likelihood of an outright default.
In China, Shanghai Composite opened notably lower but returned to near-unchanged levels heading into midday break. Local press reports special entities affiliated with top state-run financials put a bid under yesterday's drop, even as other analysts noted another liquidity injection and a more carefully managed approach on China IPO pipeline. Typically high-profile June PMIs were largely a non-factor. Manufacturing expanded for the 4th straight month despite missing consensus amid continued weakness in employment. Official services PMI hit a 4-month high, while SME-focused HSBC manufacturing remained in contraction for the 4th month and resident economist again recommended more easing measures. Also of note in China, World Bank reaffirmed the country's 2015 GDP target at 7.1% and 2016 at 7.0%, but warned of the headwinds on consumption from the recent market volatility.
End of the month PMI releases in Asia were otherwise also mixed. Japan final figure returned to marginal expansion of 50.1 from contraction of 49.9 prelim. Lower order pipeline was offset by the 3rd straight month of employment recovery and renewed inflation pressures. Vietnam and Taiwan PMIs marked 3-month and 33-month lows respectively, while Korea PMI slid to its biggest contraction since Sept 2012, as "buying activity declined at the quickest rate in almost six-and-halfyears."
-In Australia, shares of Asciano were halted and then gained sharply after confirmed reports of acquisition talks by US-based Brookfield (BIP) in a deal valued as much as $9B. Australia housing data also showed more regional divergence - overall house prices were up 2.1% m/m, with Sydney up 2.8%. For the year, Sydney values jumped 16.2% in the year to June and those in Melbourne rose 10.2% - more than twice the gain of the next closest city, Adelaide.
-Fed's non-voting hawk Bullard remarked the Greek situation is not likely to weigh on US markets, calling for higher rates to prevent the rise of asset bubbles. Bullard added Sept liftoff is "very much in play", though a move in July cannot be discounted either.
***Equities***
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Lawson Inc 2651.JP +2.3% (Q1 speculation)
- Financials: Bank of Nanjing Co 601009.CN -3.6% (S&P cuts rating); Guotai Junan International Holdings 601211.CN +7.2% (lowers margin requirement for certain stocks)
- Industrials: China Shipping Development 600026.CN +3.0% (awarded contract); Asciano Limited AIO.AU +20.2% (in talks to sell business)
- Technology: Wonders Information Co Ltd 300168.CN +10.0%, Netposa Technologies Ltd 300367.CN +10.0% (China passes security law); BesTV New Media Co 600637.CN +2.5% (H1 guidance); Sony Corp 6758.JP +1.8% (to issue shares and convertible bonds)
- Energy: Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical 600688.CN +4.6%,Guanghui Energy Co Ltd 600256.CN +1.4% (China to ease natural gas price limit)
- Materials: Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co 002274.CN +2.3% (raises H1 guidance); Jiangsu Chengxing Phosph-Chemicals Co 600078.CN -10.0% (share placement); Paladin Energy Limited PDN.AU +7.1% (revised FY15 guidance); Drillsearch Energy DLS.AU +1.5% (FY16 guidance)
- Healthcare: Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting 300347.CN +10.0% (H1 guidance); Hunan China Sun Pharmaceutical Machinery Co Ltd 300216.CN +1.1% (to set up financial leasing firm); Alchemia ACL.AU +15.6% (conditional sales of subsidiary)
- Utilities: China National Nuclear Power Corporation 601985.CN +7.9% (signs agreement with Areva)
