(Nomura) M&A Q2 revisions, poised for strong H2

2Q Cons. Too High; M&A Poised for Strong 2H

Macro Concerns Prompt Closing Delays, Negative 2Q Revisions; + Risk / Reward at LAZ

2Q Cons. too high as macro prompts closing delays; LAZ risk / reward +
Following a period of sustained momentum in Advisory, the pace of 2Q deal closings slowed, as macro uncertainty (Grexit, China, Fed rate actions) drove transaction delays, and below-consensus cuts to 2QE. Ahead of 2Q earnings, we see greater risk of negative revisions at EVR and GHL, though backlogs are building nicely, up +8% and +11%, respectively, supporting a more robust 2H15. For LAZ, our 2Q deal-by-deal analysis, coupled with modest declines in market proxies, prompted us to cut 2QE closer to the street. Despite strong YTD performance at LAZ, shares have come under some pressure of late, not surprising given heavier gearing to Europe (~45% of LTM Advisory revenue; ~29% of AUM). Recent history suggests LAZ shares could see further multiple compression if macro pressures persist, though relative to the market multiple, shares are trading near prior period troughs, implying favorable risk / reward.

>>> US Close Dow-0.26% S&P-0.39% Nasdaq-0.35% Russell-0.10%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Retreat After Greece Votes 'No'

Monday was a busy day for equities across the globe, beginning with an overnight slide in the futures market after the Greek referendum produced 61.3% ‘no' votes, rejecting the bailout terms previously proposed by eurozone creditors. The results of the referendum allowed Greece's Syriza party to stay in power, but Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis stepped down with Oxford-educated Euclid Tsakalotos assuming Mr. Varoufakis' place.

With the referendum in the rear-view mirror, the focus now shifts to July 20, when Greece will have to make a EUR3.50 billion payment to the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank adjusted haircuts on Greek collateral for Emergency Liquidity Assistance, but the details were not revealed in the press release. The continued uncertainty about Greece's future in the eurozone pressured European markets with Germany's DAX and Italy's MIB losing 1.5% and 4.0%, respectively.

Domestically, the S&P 500 (-0.4%) began the session just above its 200-day moving average (2,055), but an aggressive bid lifted the index back to its flat line about an hour after the opening bell. However, that rebound was short-lived, fading into the afternoon.

Nine of ten sectors ended the day in negative territory with the energy sector (-1.3%) spending the day behind other cyclical groups. The growth-sensitive group finished among the laggards while crude oil plunged into the pit close, settling lower by 7.8% at $52.48/bbl.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, financials (-0.4%) and technology (-0.4%) spent the day in negative territory, which kept the market under pressure. High-beta chipmakers contributed to the losses in technology with the PHLX Semiconductor Index falling 1.6% as 28 of its 30 components registered losses while Altera (ALTR 51.40, +0.06) eked out a slight gain while Qualcomm (QCOM 63.11, 0.00) ended flat.

Things looked a bit better on the countercyclical side with consumer staples (-0.1%) and utilities (+0.4%) ending ahead of the broader market while the telecom services sector (-1.1%) struggled. For its part, health care (unch) finished ahead of the broader market after biotechnology displayed some intraday strength. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 372.36, +2.01) advanced 0.5% after being up 1.5%.

Today's session was relatively quiet on the corporate front, but Humana (HUM 188.96, +1.46) rose 0.8% after agreeing to be acquired by Aetna (AET 117.43, -8.08) as part of a transaction valued at $230/share.

Treasuries held gains throughout the day, settling not far below their overnight highs with the 10-yr yield down nine basis points at 2.29%.

Monday's trading volume surpassed recent averages with more than 910 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Although today's main focus was on Greece, it is also worth noting that China's Shanghai Composite gained 2.4%, but that was after the index opened with an 8.0% advance in reaction to news that the People's Bank of China extended a lifeline to equity brokers through China Finance Securities in an attempt to stem the recent slide.

Economic data was limited to the June ISM Services Index, which increased to 56.0 in June from 55.7 in May while the consensus expected the index an increase to 56.3. Business activities accelerated as the related index increased to 61.5 in June from 59.5 in May.

Tomorrow, May Trade Balance (consensus -$42.00 billion) will be released at 8:30 ET while the May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will cross the wires at 10:00 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 15:00 ET release of the Consumer Credit report for May (consensus $17.60 billion).
  • Nasdaq Composite +5.1% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +3.4% YTD 
  • S&P 500 +0.5% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.8% YTD

>>> Greeks apologise with huge horse (just for fun)

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/greeks-apologise-with-huge-horse-2012051527146

Greeks apologise with huge horse
15-05-12


THE nation of Greece said sorry to the European Union with a present of an enormous wooden horse.

Left outside the European Central Bank in the dead of night, the horse has now been moved into the ECB’s central lobby where it is proudly on display.

A gift tag attached to the horse, which is surprisingly light for its size and has small holes along the length of its body, suggested that it should be placed in the bank’s vaults overnight to avoid it being targeted by thieves.

Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, said: “How nice of the Greeks to acknowledge the trouble we’ve been put to on their behalf with this wonderful horse, handmade and so large it could hold a dozen double-decker buses.

“The card with it, which had a teddy bear dressed as a hobo on the front, explained that Greece made us this because they don’t have enough money for a present, which brought a tear to my eye.

“However, unless they can somehow find billions overnight then austerity measures must continue.”

Oddly, Greek representatives in Brussels have hinted that they may soon be in a position to settle their debts and have puzzled the French and German banks that hold their loans by asking if there is any discount for cash.

The government of Spain has reacted angrily to the gift, accusing the Greeks of trying to bribe the ECB and redoubling their own efforts to weave a gigantic sombrero-wearing straw donkey.

(BFW) TECHNICALS: WTI Crude Futures Fall as Much as 7.9%


TECHNICALS: WTI Crude Futures Fall as Much as 7.9%
2015-07-06 19:22:02.831 GMT


By William Maloney
(Bloomberg) -- Sink most since February.

* Down for 3rd day
* Break below both 100-DMA ($54.78) and 38.2% Fibonacci of
March low to May 6 high; chart
* 50% Fibonacci around $52.31
* 14-day RSI falls to 29; chart
* Breaks trading range; chart
* NOTE: Earlier, OIL FUTURES: Crude Drops Most in 5 Mos. on
Greece, China Concern
* NOTE: Earlier, Brent Crude Slumps Below $60 as Greece, China
Put Demand at Risk


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

William Maloney is a Chartered Market Technician and Strategist
who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own.

To contact the reporter on this story:
William Maloney in New York at +1-212-617-6437 or
wmaloney3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Larry DiTore at +1-212-617-1603 or
lditore@bloomberg.net

(BFW) Prosiebensat.1 Said in Talks to Combine W/ Axel Springer: DJ


BFW 07/06 18:43 *PROSIEBENSAT.1 SAID IN TALKS TO COMBINE W/ AXEL SPRINGER: DJ
Prosiebensat.1 Said in Talks to Combine W/ Axel Springer: DJ
2015-07-06 18:49:15.607 GMT


By Beth Mellor
(Bloomberg) -- Prosiebensat.1 is in talks to combine with
Axel Springer, Dow Jones reports, citing people familiar.

* Prosiebensat.1 would be senior partner in deal, people said
* Deal would value combined entity at >EU14b, DJ says
* Would face antitrust hurdles, DJ says, citing industry
experts
* NOTE: PSM GY reports 2Q July 30, SPR GY reports 2Q Aug. 4


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Beth Mellor in New York at +1-212-617-3078 or
bmellor@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Arie Shapira at +1-212-617-1488 or
ashapira3@bloomberg.net
Beth Mellor

(BN) Teva Said Planning to Raise Mylan Bid to $86-$88/Share (1)


Teva Said Planning to Raise Mylan Bid to $86-$88/Share This Week
2015-07-06 16:17:39.188 GMT


By Ed Hammond and David Wainer
(Bloomberg) -- Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. is
preparing to raise its bid for rival drugmaker Mylan NV by as
much as $2 billion, to $43 billion, and may announce the
improved proposal as soon as this week, people with knowledge of
the matter said.
Teva may offer $86 to $88 a share for Mylan, said the
people, who asked not to be identified because the information
is private. That compares with the $82 a share Teva offered in
April, a price that valued the Canonsburg, Pennsylvania-based
company at about $40.1 billion. Mylan had a market value of
about $34.4 billion as of last week’s close.
Unlike its previous expression of interest, Teva plans to
make the next offer formal as it seeks to thwart the U.S.
drugmaker’s pursuit of Perrigo Co., the people said. Mylan is
planning to hold a shareholder meeting this summer to vote on
its Perrigo proposal, and an offer from Teva would pose an
alternative for proxy firms advising Mylan shareholders.
A new takeover proposal at the level Teva is contemplating
would mark the drug industry’s largest this year and signal an
intensifying battle for pharmaceutical assets that threatens to
become increasingly hostile.
Teva’s approach in April was based on the condition that
Mylan drop its bid for Perrigo. Mylan instead raised its offer
for the Dublin-based company to $32.7 billion, its third
proposal to be rebuffed.
Representatives for the companies declined to comment.

For Related News and Information:
Mylan Takes Fight to Teva’s Home Turf With Perrigo Meetings
Teva Buying Mylan Stock May Portend Showdown at Investor Meeting
Battle for Biggest Pharma Deal May Play Out in Dutch Court
Teva earnings graph: TEVA IT <Equity> FA ISBAR <GO>
Mylan product data: MYL US <Equity> FA PROD <GO>
Top health-industry news: TOP HEA <GO>

To contact the reporters on this story:
Ed Hammond in New York at +1-212-617-1963 or
ehammond12@bloomberg.net;
David Wainer in Tel Aviv at +972-3-542-7110 or
dwainer3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Jeffrey McCracken at +1-212-617-8517 or
jmccracken3@bloomberg.net
Elizabeth Wollman, Crayton Harrison

EXANE / GREEK REFERENDUM : "No" response



"No" opens up a wide range of market outcomes
Acknowledging what we do not know is as important as bragging over our insights. Under a "No" vote there is a wide range of potential outcomes and given the unprecedented nature of this event, the probabilities associated with each are unquantifiable. It is clear though that the European risk premium is not elevated, and offers little buffer against an adverse scenario.

"No" offers an asymmetric payoff profile
Clarity on the extent of the contagion, the efficacy of any ECB policy response and any spill-over damage into the real economy will take time to emerge. But we see heavy losses under an adverse 'No' scenario against only modest gains under a best case 'No' outcome. Benchmarking against previous periods of risk adjustment in European equities suggests a 15% peak to trough move in the Eurostoxx is easily plausible.

The "No" vote is most likely to lead to a Grexit
According to exit polls, the 'No' won with 61% in yesterday's referendum. In this situation, we believe Greece is very likely to leave the Eurozone. As the euro is a political project, we cannot completely rule out a turn in the current situation; however, we struggle to see the basis on which a deal can be found, given the current deadlock comes by and large down to a conflict of ideologies.

Politicians will want to keep Greece in the EU
The Grexit process itself would be a mix of European politicians not finding a compromise with Greece, Greek banks running out of funding and Greek authorities having to issue IOUs and a parallel currency. Ultimately, we believe the EU will be very willing to provide support through EU mechanisms, but without keeping Greece in the straightjacket of the Eurozone.

The euro's long-run taint
Expect periphery spreads to open sharply higher on Monday, with the ECB having to increase buying to contain the situation. In our view, the growth effect of a Grexit on the Eurozone should be manageable, with a confidence shock being the biggest risk. However, the situation reveals the shortcomings of the euro, which means euro assets should have a risk premium in the long-run.

(BFW) Brent Crude Drops Below $60 a Barrel First Time Since April 15

--> let's not forget than Iran deal should come very soon and push poil lower!!!
BFW 07/05 22:15 *BRENT CRUDE DROPS BELOW $60 A BARREL FIRST TIME SINCE APRIL 15
Brent Crude Drops Below $60 a Barrel First Time Since April 15
2015-07-05 22:23:04.705 GMT


By Ben Sharples
(Bloomberg) -- Futures decline as much as 97 cents, or
1.6%, to $59.35/bbl on the London-based ICE Futures Europe
exchange at 8:17 a.m. in Sydney.

* Prices fell 4.7% last wk
* WTI drops $2.29 from the June 2 close


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the reporter on this story:
Ben Sharples in Melbourne at +61-3-9228-8732 or
bsharples@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Alexander Kwiatkowski at +65-6212-1329 or
akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net