(Makor) Technical Research – Euro Stoxx Index - Update

Technical Research – Euro Stoxx Index (3,429)
* Despite the deeper than expected correction in the Index we continue to believe that the move down from the 3,691-3,714 is corrective. Our view is based on several factors which include the medium term uptrend, the suggested Elliot wave count and the bullish monthly setup on the index. As long as the Index continues to trade above the July low at 3,291 we continue to view this retracement as corrective.
* The Index did break below the 200dma yesterday and closed at the lows of the day. The next support level is the open gap down to 3,420 and then the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement at 3,291. Below 3,291 there is the rising channel support at 3,365-70. While a dip to the latter is possible the bulls want to see the index stabilize above 3,291 at least on a daily closing basis.
* On the upside, watch the 200dma at 3,463, a daily closing above it would be bullish. That being said it will be needed to see a close above 3,540-50 to argue for a low being in place.

(GS) Divident Swap Monitor - EURO STOXX 50 risk/reward still attractive; Nikkei

EURO STOXX 50 risk/reward still attractive; Nikkei 225 stalling; S&P 500 LT growth declines

Since our last dividend swap monitor, EURO STOXX 50 2016 dividends have been roughly flat while Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 have been marginally down. Despite the elevated equity volatility, EURO STOXX 50 dividends have been very resilient. We think dividend fundamentals improved in the first half of the year – we still see potential for strong dividend growth from financials and cyclicals while downside appears limited to oil & gas. Nikkei 225 dividends consolidated in line with our more cautious stance since June – we are turning more neutral. S&P 500 LT dividend growth has declined materially since mid-2014, recently disconnecting from forward rates.

Summary of current views and trade ideas
EURO STOXX 50: Our forecasts are roughly unchanged but the upcoming index rebalance is likely to reduce 2016/17 forecast by 1-2 points. We continue to like EURO STOXX 50 2016 dividends, which have been resilient in the despite equity volatility. But upside to 2017+ maturities is more attractive and we would look to roll out the term structure once equity markets stabilise. Until then, we highlight option strategies on dividends as implied volatility remains well below that of equities – we like call spreads and risk reversals.
FTSE 100: Upside risk from a stronger dollar, downside risk from commodities sectors.
S&P 500: LT implied dividend growth has declined further, undershooting forward rates.
Nikkei 225: After the recent consolidation on 2016 we turn more neutral from our previously bearish stance. But we still prefer longer-dated dividends which might benefit from additional BOJ easing.

FT : The world should fear an emerging market rout

The world should fear an emerging market rout

Developing countries need a stimulus to offset capital outflows

Capital is cascading out of emerging markets as investors, companies and financial institutions lose confidence in developing countries. The outflows, which have risen towards $1tn over the past 13 months, hold a significance that extends well beyond the frailties of the countries themselves. The dynamism of developing nations helped restore the world to growth in the aftermath of the 2008-09 financial crisis. It is now dissipating fast.
Their vitality is being sapped by a vicious circle of cause and effect. Capital outflows add to pressures on emerging market currencies to weaken against the US dollar, thus inhibiting import demand, damping economic growth and spurring further outflows. If the cycle cannot be arrested, the risk is that a growth slump in developing countries — which account for 52 per cent of global gross domestic product in purchasing power parity terms — could pull the wider world into recession.

The resilience of emerging markets may be critical. But the prognosis is poor. To an extent, the growth model that generated rapid economic expansion over the past three decades appears to be broken. David Lubin, head of emerging market economics at Citi, says three key engines of GDP growth — exports, public domestic spending and private domestic spending — are all sputtering.
Exports are hobbled by a collapse in the growth of global trade. Public spending is weak because many countries are too nervous to loosen fiscal policy, fearing a loss of sovereign creditworthiness at a time when capital inflows are scarce. And private domestic spending is hampered by the fact that credit markets in many countries are in “post-boom” mode: neither domestic lenders nor borrowers have much appetite for risk, Mr Lubin adds.
The upshot has been a sustained slide in GDP growth. Bhanu Baweja, strategist at UBS, estimates that emerging market GDP expansion eased to an average 3.5 per cent in the first quarter, its lowest level since the 2008-09 crisis. He adds that if China’s huge economy is stripped out, the remaining emerging market GDP growth may have been “close to zero” in the first quarter. Few analysts are predicting an upturn in fortunes later this year.
So what can be done to reverse the downward spiral? One answer is urgent structural reform. Only Mexico and India have elected leaders who are committed to a definable programme. Other emerging markets largely squandered the opportunity for reform that more than a decade of rapid growth afforded them.

A more immediate boost, however, could be had from the selective loosening of fiscal policies in some developing countries. It is easy to understand why many governments are loath to consider this; with the US Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates sometime this autumn, many developing countries will be reinforcing fiscal discipline so as to keep borrowing costs as low as possible. But at a certain point, the imperative to generate growth needs to take precedence, at least in those countries that have some room for fiscal pump-priming.
The need for new infrastructure, especially in India, China, most of sub-Saharan Africa and much of Latin America, is keen. Multilateral organisations such as the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the new Chinese-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank should move quickly to step up their lending. Emerging market countries, too, should invest where they can. The alternative is to risk the current emerging market run developing into a rout.

(SYH) Glencore billionaire club loses half its members as stock dives

Glencore billionaire club loses half its members as stock dives
2015-08-20 06:12:47.87 GMT


By Javier Blas and Jesse Riseborough
Aug. 20 (Sydney Morning Herald) --
Glasenberg unable to 'read China' as Glencore slumps to
huge loss

Mining company Glencore's sharemarket float minted six
billionaires in 2011, with Ivan Glasenberg and five other
executives together controlling stakes worth $24 billion ($32.7
billion).
Today, only three remain in the elite club -- based on the
value of their holdings in the company -- and two of those are
on the brink of losing their status after the shares of the
leading commodity trader lost 70 per cent since the IPO.
The May 2011 offering generated more wealth than the IPOs
of some of Wall Street's most prominent firms, including
Goldman Sachs Group in 1999. Since then, Glencore's share price
has fallen every year, a decline that's accelerated in recent
months as concern China's economy is slowing has seen commodity
prices plunge.
Glencore dropped 9.7 per cent in London to close at a
record low on Wednesday after the company reported a 56 percent
drop in first-half profit.

Chief executive Glasenberg remains an undisputed
billionaire, but the value of his stake has dropped from $US9.4
billion in May 2011 to $US2.8 billion now, according to
Bloomberg estimates based on public data.
His colleagues have fared worse: the stakes controlled by
Tor Peterson, head of coal, Alex Beard, head of oil, and Gary
Fegel, the former head of aluminium who left Glencore in 2013,
are each worth less than $US1 billion today.
Daniel Mate, head of zinc, and Telis Mistakidis, head of
copper, are just above the billionaire line, with stakes worth
$US1.04 billion and $US1.03 billion, respectively, down from
about $US3.6 billion four years ago. If the shares drop another
five per cent, they will become multi-millionaires.
Glasenberg and some of his executives have bought more
shares over the years, re-investing their dividends.
Glencore declined to comment on the wealth of its
directors.
Bloomberg News



Click here to see the story as it appeared on Sydney Morning
Herald web site.

The Sydney Morning Herald
Copyright © (2015) Fairfax Media Publications Pty Limited.
www.smh.com.au. Not available for re-distribution.

-0- Aug/20/2015 06:12 GMT

>>> What to look at today - 20th of August 2015

Dow-0.93% S&P-0.65% Nasdaq-0.80% Russel-0.86% FXI -2.24% VIX 15.28% (+10.8%)
US /close lower after a volatile session. Anothert volatile session in China didn't inspire investors in Europe & in the US...Energy Sector leaded the move with -2.8% performance with crude oil setling new year low at $40.80 (-4.3%)...Golds climbed 1.2% to 1,130.70. FOMC minutes helped mkt to trade on high of the day but not for long, the minutes appeared to be quite dovish with members "generally agreeing" that more information is needed before hiking rates. Furthermore, most members believed that "conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved," but they agreed that conditions were nearing that point. Technology (-0.9%) and financials (-0.9%) ended essentially in-line with the broader market while the consumer discretionary sector (-0.2%) spent the day ahead of the benchmark index. Volume were ahead of average at 810mil shares...US After Hours : NTAP +8.1%, UNFI +2.7%, IMMU +1.1%, MOMO -9.3%, LB -2.6%, PLKI -0.8% following earnings/guidance...FOMC is not helping Asian markets, ASX led the regional selloff with a downward test of 5,300 - a multi-month low area. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also struggled with the added headwinds of the technically bearish "death cross" scenario. In Chinese press, there was more chatter that medium term GDP target could be formally downgraded to 6.5% from 7% in the coming 13th Five Year plan. PBoC also continued its open market operation easing activity, injecting another CNY120B for the day and CNY150B for the week - the biggest weekly injection in 6 months. Yuan midpoint was again set marginally higher relative to prior setting and relative to the close - the first stronger setting for the latter in 4 days. Gold pushed out to new 1-month highs around $1,139 in Asia, adding about $7 to the initial $6 jump on minutes release.

Nikkei-0.71% Hang Seng-1.60% Shanghai-1.47%

Eur$ 1.1129 JPY 123.97 CNY 6.3928 RUB $66.7306 KZT $252 (+27%) WTI $40.61 (-0.47%) GOLD $1,142 +0.74%

S&P +0.01% EuroStoxx-0.40% Dax -0.53% SMI -0.16%

Macro :
- Greece Stability Support Agreed by Whole Euro Area: Selmayr
- ESM Says Euro Area Has Approved $95 Billion Aid Deal for Greece
- Most on FOMC Saw Liftoff Approaching; Mute on Sept. or Dec. Move
- Kazakhstan Moves to Free Float of Tenge Rate, Abandons FX Band --> -27% to 254 vs 200 (KZT Curncy )
- Finland 2Q Real GDP Contraction Credit Negative, Moody’s Says
- Investors Move Money Into Cash, Underweight Equities: Barclays

Keep an eye on :
- AH NA : Ahold 2Q Underlying Oper. Income Beats Ests.
- BOKA NA : Boskalis 1H Ebitda EU500m vs Est. EU384m; Lowers FY Capex Range
- DL NA : Old Mutual’s Stake in Delta Lloyd Falls to 2.9%, Filing Shows
- EMGS NO : Electromagnetic Geoservices 2Q Net Loss Widens More Than Est.
- GVNV FP : GrandVision 2Q Rev. Up 17%, Adj. Ebitda Up 18%
- IM NA : Orbis Holdings Stake in Imtech Falls to 4.83%, Filing Shows
- MONT BB : Montea Sees 2015 Adj. Profit of at Least EU19m vs 1H EU9.4m
- NOVN VX : Novartis Drug Gets EU Approval for Advanced Basal Cell Carcinoma
- RNO FP : Renault-Nissan India May Cut 3,000 Jobs, Output at Factory: ET
- SAN FP : Regeneron/Sanofi, Amgen PCSK9 Drugs Questioned in NEJM
- SIX3 GY : Sixt 2Q Sales, Pretax Profit Rise; Raises 2015 Forecasts
- SONAE VX : Sonae 1H Net EU97m Vs EU52m
- SRCG SW : Sunrise 2Q Net Rises to CHF14M; 1H Net Loss CHF152m
- VASTN NA : Vastned Raises 2015 Direct Result/Shr Outlook to EU2.40-EU2.50

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of August 2015

>>> Up
*AIR FRANCE-KLM RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*AMEC FOSTER WHEELER RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*COMPASS GROUP RAISED TO BUY AT JEFFERIES
*KION RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*MUNICH RE RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS UNDERPERFORM AT RBC
*NN GROUP RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*PRADA RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT MAINFIRST
*SIGNET RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS

>>> Down
*CARLSBERG CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT SOCIETE GENERALE
*CARLSBERG CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*DRAX CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*GAMESA CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*GN STORE NORD CUT TO HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*VESTAS CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*WIZZ AIR CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*ALDERMORE ASSUMED AT NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE; PT 265P

>>> Call

>>> Asian Update - 20th of August 2015

Asian Mid-session Update: Dovish Fed minutes unable to revive sentiment in Asia


***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JULY RBA FX TRANSACTIONS (A$): -0.7B v -2.5B PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 109.8 V 113.9 PRIOR; M/M: -3.6% V -5.0% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JULY ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: +0.1% V -0.5% PRIOR

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.6%, S&P/ASX -1.4%, Kospi -0.9%, Shanghai Composite -0.6%, Hang Seng -1.4%, Sept S&P500 +0.1% at 2,074

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Dec gold +0.7% at $1,135/oz, Oct crude oil -0.9% at $40.92/brl, Sept copper -0.2% at $2.27/lb
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.3915 v 6.3963 prior setting; 5th straight firmer Yuan setting
- (CN) PBoC to inject CNY120B in 7-day reverse repos (17th consecutive injection); Injects net CNY150B this week (2nd week of injection, largest Weekly injection in 6 months) v injected CNY5B prior
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥600.3B in foreign bonds v bought ¥110.8B in prior week; Foreign investors sold net ¥501.1B in Japan stocks v bought ¥356.4B in prior week

***Market Focal Points/FX**
- Diminished expectations for a September liftoff gleaned in the latest release of the FOMC policy meeting minutes are not able to boost sentiment in the far east. July minutes revealed the committee concluded that "economic conditions warranting an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate had not yet been met." Note that sentiment had yet to capture continued soft inflation data - with today's headline US CPI showing more evidence of lower oil prices - and also China's latest devaluation measures. Australia's ASX led the regional selloff with a downward test of 5,300 - a multi-month low area. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also struggled with the added headwinds of the technically bearish "death cross" scenario.

- In Chinese press, there was more chatter that medium term GDP target could be formally downgraded to 6.5% from 7% in the coming 13th Five Year plan. Report also noted policymakers may give more focus on urban job creation and R&D investment. Recall earlier this week there were reports of a debate regarding that growth rate objective. PBoC also continued its open market operation easing activity, injecting another CNY120B for the day and CNY150B for the week - the biggest weekly injection in 6 months. Yuan midpoint was again set marginally higher relative to prior setting and relative to the close - the first stronger setting for the latter in 4 days.

- In FX, USD reaction was clearly bearish after the FOMC Minutes release, but there was little follow-through of that trend in Asia. USD/JPY fell 40pips below 123.70 after the minutes but was seen testing the upside of 124 again late in Asia. AUD/USD and NZD/USD were contained to 30pip ranges 0.7340 and 0.6590 respectively, while EUR/USD rose about 30pips above 1.1130. Gold pushed out to new 1-month highs around $1,139 in Asia, adding about $7 to the initial $6 jump on minutes release.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- AGTC: Announces strategic collaboration with Biogen effective and Biogen Equity Investment closed; +12.9% afterhours
- NTAP: Reports Q1 $0.29 v $0.23e, R$1.34B v $1.35Be; +12.1% afterhours
- UNFI: Guides Q4 $0.72-0.73 v $0.72e, R$2.06-2.065B v $2.05Be; +2.7% afterhours
- SSS: To be added to S&P400 and PLUS to be added to S&P600, after the close on Aug 21st; +1.5% afterhours
- LB: Reports Q2 $0.68 v $0.68e, R$2.77B v $2.77Be; -2.6% afterhours
- SMTC: Reports Q2 $0.24 v $0.23e, R$126M v $123Me; -3.2% afterhours
- JMEI: Reports Q2 $0.13 v $0.15e, R$308.1M v $154.5M y/y; -5.6% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Qantas Airways Ltd QAN.AU -2.1% (FY15 result); Breville Group Ltd BRG.AU +1.5% (FY15 result); Tatts Group Ltd TTS.AU -3.9% (FY15 result); Cathay Pacific Airways 293.HK -4.6% (H1 result); Galaxy Entertainment Group 27.HK -5.9% (H1 result); Macau Legend Development 1680.HK -2.9% (H1 result); China Dongxiang Group Co 3818.HK -1.0% (H1 result); AVIC Aero-Engine Controls Co 000738.CN -2.0% (H1 result); Jiangsu Pheonix Publishing & Media Co 601928.CN +8.2% (H1 result)l Intime Department Store Group Co 1833.HK +7.1% (H1 result)
- Financials: AMP Limited AMP.AU -0.6% (H1 result); Australian Stock Exchange ASX.AU -0.4% (FY15 result); WesFarmers Limited WES.AU +1.7% (FY15 result); Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 600000.CN -0.3% (H1 result); Beijing North Star Co 601588.CN -2.1% (H1 result); Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co 000069.CN -2.9% (H1 result); Haining China Leather Market Co.002344.CN -0.8% (H1 result); Country Garden Holdings Co 2007.HK -1.4% (H1 result); China Overseas Land 688.HK +2.8% (H1 result)
- Industrials: Qube Logistics QUB.AU -3.3% (FY15 result); Ridley Corp RIC.AU -4.3% (FY15 result); PaperlinX PPX.AU +12.0% (FY15 result); Geely Automobile Holdings 175.HK -0.7% (H1 result); Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings Co 631.HK -1.7% (H1 result); CIMC Enric Holdings Ltd 3899.HK -4.5% (H1 result); China National Chemical Engineering Co 601117.CN +0.7% (H1 result); Dongjiang Environmental Co 002672.CN +1.3% (H1 result); Changjiang & Jingong Steel Building Group Co 600496.CN -2.2% (H1 result); Guangzhou Guangri Stock Co 600894.CN -0.5% (H1 result); Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Co 600020.CN +10.0% (H1 result)
- Technology: Brambles Limited BXB.AU -2.7% (FY15 result); Hithink Flush Information Network Co 300033.CN -4.2% (delisting risk); Kingdee International Software Group Co 268.HK -5.3% (H1 result); Fujian Newland Computer Co 000997.CN +2.0% (H1 result); Sumavision Technologies Co 300079.CN +6.5% (H1 result); GoerTek Inc 002241.CN +1.8% (H1 result); Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co 000977.CN +5.1% (H1 result)
- Materials: Sandfire Resources SFR.AU -3.4% (FY15 result); Adelaide Brighton Limited ABC.AU -0.8% (H1 result); ENN Ecological Holdings 600803.CN -1.4% (H1 result); Zhongjin Gold Co Ltd 600489.CN +7.7% (H1 result); China Fiberglass Co 600176.CN -3.9% (H1 result)
-Energy: Origin Energy ORG.AU -11.8% (FY15 result) CGN Power Co 1816.HK -7.2% (H1 result); ENN Energy Holdings 2688.HK -4.0% (H1 result)
-Telecom: China Telecom Corp 728.HK +1.7% (H1 result)
-Utilities: CGN Meiya Power Holdings Co 1811.HK -2.3% (H1 result); China Electric Power Construction 601669.CN -1.7% (YTD new contracts); Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co 600674.CN -1.2% (H1 result)
-Healthcare: Yunnan Baiyao Group Co 000538.CN -0.4% (H1 result); Inner Mongolia Jinyu Group 600201.CN -3.9% (H1 result); Aier Eye Hospital Group Co 300015.CN -1.3% (H1 result); China National Accord Medicines Co 000028.CN -2.8% (H1 result); Changchun High & New Technology Industries 000661.CN -4.5% (H1 result); Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer 1066.HK+4.8% (H1 result)

Kazakhstan’s Tenge Tumbles 20% to 248 Per Dollar


BFW 08/20 04:46 Kazakhstan’s Tenge Tumbles Record 23% After Shift to Free Float
BN 08/20 04:45 *KAZAKHSTAN'S TENGE PLUNGES AFTER SHIFT TO FREE FLOAT
BFW 08/20 04:44 *KAZAKHSTAN’S TENGE TUMBLES 20% TO 248 PER DOLLAR
BFW 08/20 04:44 *KAZAKHSTAN'S TENGE TUMBLES 20% TO 248 PER DOLLAR
Kazakhstan’s Tenge Tumbles 20% to 248 Per Dollar
2015-08-20 04:45:26.455 GMT


Story to follow

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Peter Vercoe at +61-2-9777-8607 or
pvercoe@bloomberg.net

>>> US After Hours Summary:NTAP +8.1%, UNFI +2.7%, IMMU +1.1%, M

After Hours Summary:NTAP +8.1%, UNFI +2.7%, IMMU +1.1%, MOMO -9.3%, LB -2.6%, PLKI -0.8% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: KEYS +10.0%, NTAP +8.1%, UNFI +2.7%, IMMU +1.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AGTC +12.9% (co's previously announced collaboration with Biogen (BIIB) is now effective; Biogen's equity investment in AGTC has closed), PANL +4.8% (extended its Contract of Affreightment with a major aluminum producer through 2026; sees potential revenue of up to $350 mln over the ten year term), PLUS +1.9% (to replace Sovran Self Storage (SSS) in the S&P SmallCap 600), MMLP +0.6% (reduced the aggregate committed sum of its revolving credit facility from $900? mln to $700? mln)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: MOMO -9.3%, JMEI -6.5%, OHGI -3.6%, SMTC -3.2%, LB -2.6%, PLKI -0.8%, SNPS -0.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ANFI -17.2% (disclosed its previous independent registered public accounting firm Deloitte Haskins & Sells had requested ANFI's Audit Committee retain independent external forensic investigators; Deloitte Haskins & Sells was terminated before Audit Committee commenced such investigation), SVM -5.3% (co to voluntarily withdraw its common shares from listing on the New York Stock Exchange), PSTR -4.9% (co received a notice of non-compliance from Nasdaq, for not maintaining $10 mln in equity; co intends to be delisted and trade OTC), GDP -1.9% (announced that CFO Jan Schott has resigned to join another company), WD -1.7% (announced that it has originated 28 loans worth ~$465 mln, secured by a portfolio of properties acquired by New Senior Investment Group)