(BFW) China Allows Pension Funds to Invest in Stocks, Index Futures



BN 08/23 09:56 *CHINA ALLOWS PENSION FUNDS TO INVEST IN STOCKS, INDEX FUTURES
BN 08/23 09:55 *CHINA STATE COUNCIL RELEASES PENSION INVESTMENT PLAN

China Allows Pension Funds to Invest in Stocks, Index Futures
2015-08-23 10:11:05.825 GMT


By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- China’s State Council published plan
allowing pension funds to invest in the stock market, it said in
a statement on the central government’s website

* The plan caps the proportion of stocks, funds and stock-
related pension products at 30% of the fund’s total net
assets
* Note: China Allows Pension Funds to Invest in Stocks,
Futures Link
Link:
{http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2015-08/23/content_10115.htm}


Link to Company News:{PRCH CH <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Alexandra Ho in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-3046 or
aho113@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Allen Wan at +86-21-6104-3041 or
awan3@bloomberg.net

Reuters : U.S. banks moved billions of dollars in trades beyond Washington’s rea

You will find full artiles from reuters on that and also the article from Zero Hedge here : {http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-22/introducing-gigantic-and-dangerous-wall-street-loophole-you%E2%80%99ve-never-heard]

Vanishing Act

U.S. banks moved billions of dollars in trades beyond Washington’s reach

Part 1: Intense lobbying of regulators, many of them veterans of the industry themselves, helped ensure that practices the Dodd-Frank law was meant to stop would remain in place.

Part 2: The story of how Wall Street’s giants got around derivatives rules imposed by the CFTC after the financial crisis. The fix: tweaking contracts and shifting deals offshore.

NEW YORK – This spring, traders and analysts working deep in the global swaps markets began picking up peculiar readings: Hundreds of billions of dollars of trades by U.S. banks had seemingly vanished.

“We saw strange things in the data,” said Chris Barnes, a former swaps trader now with ClarusFT, a London-based data firm.

The vanishing of the trades was little noted outside a circle of specialists. But the implications were big. The missing transactions reflected an effort by some of the largest U.S. banks — including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley — to get around new regulations on derivatives enacted in the wake of the financial crisis, say current and former financial regulators.

The trades hadn’t really disappeared. Instead, the major banks had tweaked a few key words in swaps contracts and shifted some other trades to affiliates in London, where regulations are far more lenient. Those affiliates remain largely outside the jurisdiction of U.S. regulators, thanks to a loophole in swaps rules that banks successfully won from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2013.

The products affected by that loophole include some of the most widely traded financial derivatives in the world – such as interest rate swaps, where a bank takes a fee for exchanging a variable-rate interest payment for a fixed rate with a client, and credit default swaps, a sort of insurance where one party, often a bank, agrees to pay another party in the event of a bond default.

For large investors, the products are an important tool to hedge risk. But in times of crisis, they can turn toxic. In 2008, some of these instruments helped topple major financial institutions, crashing the U.S. economy and leading to government bailouts.

After the crisis, Congress and regulators sought to rein in this risk, and the banks fought back. From 2010 to 2013, when the CFTC was drafting new rules, representatives of the five largest U.S. banks met with the regulator more than 300 times, according to CFTC records. Goldman Sachs attended at least 160 of those meetings.

“Consistent rules around the world are better for investors and markets,” said Andrew Williams, a spokesman for Goldman Sachs. “That is what we advocated for then and continue to do so now.”

Many of the CFTC employees who were lobbied in these meetings went on to work for banks. Between 2010 and 2013, there were 50 CFTC staffers who met with the top five U.S. banks 10 or more times. Of those 50 staffers, at least 25 now work for the big five or other top swaps-dealing banks, or for law firms and lobbyists representing these banks.

The lobbying blitz helped win a ruling from the CFTC that left U.S. banks’ overseas operations largely outside the jurisdiction of U.S. regulators. After that rule passed, U.S. banks simply shipped more trades overseas. By December of 2014, certain U.S. swaps markets had seen 95 percent of their trading volume disappear in less than two years.

While many swaps trades are now booked abroad, some people in the markets believe the risk remains firmly on U.S. shores. They say the big American banks are still on the hook for swaps they’re parking offshore with subsidiaries.

This worries some regulators, who fear that Washington, in turn, will be on the hook for another bailout if these “too big to fail” banks are hit by a fresh shock – such as a rash of defaults in a recession.

“These are the shadows that do you in during a crisis, when there is almost always that link back to the core money center banks at home,” said Simon Johnson, an adviser to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which regulates government insured banks, and a former chief economist at the IMF.

To be sure, some post-crisis regulations have reduced certain kinds of risk-taking by major institutions, regulators and lawmakers say. Certain CFTC rules still apply to U.S. banks’ operations abroad, such as requirements that swaps trades be reported to a central data center. Other regulators, such as the Federal Reserve, have jurisdiction over U.S. banks’ global operations.

Still, the banks’ victory on the swaps loophole leaves a concentrated knot of risk at the heart of the financial system. The U.S. derivatives market has shrunk but remains large, with outstanding contracts worth $220 trillion at face value. And the top five top banks account for 92 percent of that.

A NEW ORDER

In late 2010, the CFTC began drafting new rules regulating derivatives markets as mandated by Congress in the landmark Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act. Lawmakers were doing an about-face: In 2000, Congress had passed a law barring the regulation of derivatives. But times had changed.

The notional value of derivatives holdings on banks’ balance sheets had ballooned from $88 trillion globally in 1999 to $672 trillion in 2008, when the financial crisis hit. Those barely regulated products, including certain types of swaps, brought many giant financial institutions to their knees.

The Dodd-Frank Act required better reporting and record keeping to keep tabs on risk, and it implemented trading rules aimed at minimizing the chance that a collapsing bank would bring down others. The most commonly used swaps were required to be traded on an electronic exchange open to all buyers and sellers, much like the stock market is today.

The rules would make it easier for new competitors to enter the swaps-dealing market, worth an estimated $40 billion to $60 billion a year to the 16 large global banks that dominate the market. Fees would fall – and most important to regulators worried about another meltdown, risk would be dispersed among more institutions.

In 2009, President Barack Obama tapped Gary Gensler, then 51 years old, to chair the CFTC. Liberals grumbled about Gensler’s résumé. The son of a cigarette and pinball-machine salesman in working class Baltimore, Gensler, at 30, had become the youngest banker ever to make partner at Goldman Sachs.

Among other jobs, he oversaw the bank’s derivatives trading in Asia. Later, as an undersecretary of the Treasury, Gensler helped push through the 2000 law that had banned regulation of derivatives markets.

But he had an insider’s knowledge. At Goldman, he had seen how U.S. banks took advantage of differences in regulations in different countries. London, for example, increased its appeal as a global finance hub, in part, by touting its “light touch” regulation to woo banks.

That practice – known as regulatory arbitrage – had a history of landing the economy in trouble. AIG, a Connecticut-based insurance giant, buckled in 2008 under trades made by its office in London. U.S. taxpayers footed the bill with a $182 billion bailout. Gensler often told people how, at the Treasury, he was stuck with the task of briefing then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin about Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. The Connecticut hedge fund collapsed under $1.2 trillion in swaps booked to a post office box in the Cayman Islands.

In 2009, soon after Gensler took the job, Congress was hashing out the Dodd-Frank bill. A powerful Republican congressman, Rep. Spencer Bachus of Alabama, put forth an amendment that would keep banks’ overseas operations outside the new rules. Alarmed, the Democratic co-sponsor of the bill, Rep. Barney Frank, asked Gensler to craft a counter-proposal.

Gensler and his staff tucked a 17-word insert into a 228-page amendment to the Dodd-Frank bill. The addition seemed to assure banks that the new derivatives rules wouldn’t apply to their overseas trading operations. Bachus backed off. But the insert was craftily worded to leave wiggle room. If those activities “have a direct and significant connection with activities in, or effect on, commerce of the United States,” then the rules would apply, Gensler’s addition read.

One year later, at a late 2010 meeting of the CFTC’s board, one of Gensler’s legal aides declared that the passage in fact gave the regulator worldwide reach over U.S. banks’ trading operations.

A coalition of 13 global banks banded together to fight the clause. They hired Edward J. Rosen, a derivatives lawyer with Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, to lead the effort.

The debate that ensued became one of the most contentious chapters of the post-crisis regulatory battle. “The industry ran to the ramparts once it became clear how the CFTC would apply this provision,” said Dennis Kelleher, president of Better Markets, a Washington D.C.-based advocacy group for tighter financial regulation.

By the end of Gensler’s term at the CFTC, Rosen’s firm had reaped nearly $6 million in lobbying fees from various banks, according to U.S. Senate lobbying records provided to the Center for Responsive Politics. (Rosen told Reuters that about $3.6 million of that was related to CFTC lobbying.)

On weekly conference calls, Rosen and the banks hashed out strategy to shape the new rules. In scores of letters and hundreds of meetings with regulators and politicians, they warned that the CFTC’s proposal would cripple banks’ ability to compete internationally.

The proposal was “unworkable and would give rise to a number of significant problems,” warned Rosen in an August 2012 letter to the CFTC.

Kenneth Raisler, a former Enron lobbyist representing JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America, argued in a letter that the CFTC should allow U.S. banks to do things overseas “even if those activities were not permissible for a U.S. bank domestically.”

Goldman Sachs Managing Director R. Martin Chavez put it more bluntly in an August 2012 letter to the Commission. The CFTC had “failed without justification,” he wrote.

In late 2011, banks caught a break. Michael Dunn, the third Democrat on the five-person commission, stepped down. Dunn’s vote had ensured that Gensler was able to carry the day on controversial rules, outgunning the two Republicans, who tended to vote for bank-friendly regulations.

In his place, Obama nominated a long time aide to Democratic Senator Harry Reid, Mark Wetjen. Gensler and other pro-reform allies assumed that the veteran Democrat would vote with the Democrats on the commission.

Wetjen, a derivatives newcomer, was not a conventional liberal. He came with an endorsement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, an opponent of the Dodd-Frank Act. As his policy adviser, Wetjen hired Scott Reinhart, former in-house counsel at the structured credit products division at Lehman Brothers – the bank whose collapse in 2008 set off the financial crisis.

Rosen, the banks’ lead lawyer, discussed Wetjen often on calls with his bank clients. The newcomer, Rosen told them, was key to swinging the commission in the banks’ favor.

Banks got dramatically more face time with commissioners after Wetjen’s appointment. In 2010, Gensler had met with the top five U.S. banks 13 times, and in 2011, 10 times. That was still more than any other staffer or commissioner at the CFTC.

In the year after Wetjen’s appointment, Wetjen aide Reinhart met with the top five banks 36 times, more than anyone else at the CFTC. Wetjen himself met with the top banks second-most often, 34 times. Gensler met them less than half as frequently, as did nearly every other commissioner and staffer, according to the records.

In June, Reinhart left the CFTC to join Rosen’s practice at Cleary Gottlieb.

One former CFTC official close to Wetjen told Reuters that the commissioner and his aides were simply newcomers studying up on the complex issues facing the CFTC. Bankers say Wetjen gave them a fairer hearing than Gensler.

“Given Gensler’s view of the world, a lot of firms, ourselves included, stopped meeting with him,” said one bank executive. “He was confrontational and not terribly open minded, unlike our experience with Mark, who wanted to be educated about the issues.”

Gensler had little patience for the bank-friendly Wetjen, former CFTC officials say. As their disagreements sharpened, Wetjen’s pro-bank views seemed to harden, these people said.

“Mark was struggling a little with the substance,” one former CFTC official said. “Gary treated Mark like he was a moron, and then Mark refused to budge.”

Wetjen joined the CFTC just as the regulator was starting to draft a preliminary version of an important statement that would determine the CFTC’s global reach. The banks were seeking a loophole to trump Gensler’s 17-word insert.

They turned to a footnote in an early draft of the policy dealing with cross-border regulation. The footnote referred to banks’ overseas “branches” but not to their “affiliates.” The banks argued that there was a legal distinction between a branch and an affiliate. Therefore, the rules should apply only to overseas branches, and not to overseas affiliates. Gensler shot that argument down.

The banks then zeroed in on wording in that first policy draft giving U.S. regulators jurisdiction over banks’ overseas operations that were backed by a parent-company credit guarantee. At the time, virtually all swaps contracts were backed by guarantees that a bank’s parent company in New York would make good on a contract if an overseas affiliate ran into trouble. And so the passage seemed to Gensler a good way of capturing all global swaps trading carried out by U.S. banks.

On a call with bank officials in 2012, Rosen, the lobbyist, wondered aloud to his clients: “What happens if you just stop guaranteeing these transactions?” recalled a former bank official who participated in some of the calls. Rosen told Reuters that the idea of de-guaranteeing only came up after the CFTC issued its final policy guidance.

Picking up on that idea, banks fought for a narrower definition of the word “guarantee.” The banks seized on a footnote in the final draft, say people familiar with the debate. That passage declared that only “explicit” promises of financial support would count as a guarantee. So, the banks reasoned that if they stripped out the word “guarantee” and equivalent terms, they could avoid the CFTC rules.

“The fight over this provision was one of the biggest policy fights in all of Dodd Frank,” said Kelleher, of the think tank Better Markets. “Once the banks got that loophole, then a lot of that predatory behavior migrated overseas to wherever there was less regulation.”

Goldman had already started moving to restructure its trading operations to get around Dodd-Frank. In March 2012, it sent out a four-page letter to its derivatives clients with an unusual demand. Goldman wanted clients to sign off on giving the bank standing permission to move a client’s swaps trades to different affiliates around the world, whenever and wherever the bank saw fit.

Goldman called the letter the “Multi-entity ISDA Master Agreement.” It meant that a client might strike a derivatives deal with Goldman in New York in the morning, and that afternoon, with no disclosure, a Goldman office in London or Singapore or Hong Kong could take over the deal. With each shift, the trade could fall under different regulators.

That was a big change. Swaps contracts often run for years, with each party committed to paying the other regularly, according to fluctuations in interest rates or some other benchmark. To a swap buyer, such as a pension fund, or a city issuing bonds, it’s vital to know that the other party will be around to pay up.

“It was a bold request,” said Kevin McPartland, head of market structure and technology at Greenwich Associates, a financial research firm. “As an investor you want to know where your money is and who is responsible to pay you when it’s time to pay you.”

An industry executive familiar with Goldman’s thinking said the agreement was meant to help clients by giving them flexibility to move trades outside U.S. jurisdiction if they wished. “It was an option for those who wanted that flexibility,” this person said.

Gensler stepped down from the CFTC at the end of 2013. This April, he was named an economic adviser to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign.

Soon after Gensler left, other U.S. banks seized on the gap in the new CFTC policy, according to lawyers and investors. They pressed clients to strip guarantees from hundreds of thousands of swaps contracts. Most went along, say lawyers and investors familiar with the effort.

“Banks that de-guaranteed acted in a manner consistent with applicable law and stated agency policy,” said Rosen, the bank lobbyist.

By August 2014, U.S. bank participation in certain swaps markets had plummeted.

The global inter-dealer market for interest rate swaps in Euros is one of the largest derivatives markets in the world. U.S. banks’ monthly share of the market had plunged nearly 90 percent since January 2013, from over $1 trillion to $125 billion, according to ISDA.

The data were misleading. U.S. banks were still trading as vigorously as ever. But their trades, booked through London affiliates, without any credit guarantees linking them back to the U.S., were now showing up in the data as the work of European banks.

Executives from several large U.S. banks said they removed guarantees from their contracts because European exchanges, seeking to avoid CFTC jurisdiction, were refusing to let U.S. banks trade. That would cause U.S. banks to lose access to much of the global swaps market, these bank officials said.

International clients also threatened to take their business to non-U.S. banks in order to avoid the new American rules, the U.S. bank executives said.

“We were worried about our major competitors taking away our access to those markets and clients,” a lawyer for a large U.S. bank said.

Some investors balked at signing the new contracts. “I don’t want to face a non-guaranteed subsidiary,” said one hedge fund lawyer. “I want to face the highest-credit counterparty possible. And if I’m not, then I want to be compensated for the added risk.”

But premiums paid by clients were largely unaffected, say investors asked to sign the revised contracts.

JP Morgan told one hedge-fund client to sign the new contract or find another bank to buy swaps from, according to the client’s lawyer. This fund agreed to sign rather than jeopardize its relationship. “My client was looking at a fait accompli,” the lawyer said. “The message was: ‘You need to sign this if you want to continue trading.’”

By mid-2014, the five biggest U.S. banks had changed “hundreds of thousands” of such contracts, according to estimates by Michael Beaton, a European derivatives lawyer who works with many international banks.

In mid 2014, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a banking lobby in Washington, circulated a private memo to its members. The memo consisted of talking points banks could use to justify the de-guaranteed contracts and shifting of trades if questioned by regulators and lawmakers.

“This practice (of removing guarantees) reduces the perceived transmission of risk to the US financial system,” SIFMA said in the memo. “Based on regulators’ guidance, the termination of U.S. guarantees should be encouraged – not labeled as evasion” of the new derivatives rules.

That November, Bank of America notified its clients that, as of November 25, 2014, all swaps conducted in Euros and British sterling would be booked out of the bank’s London affiliate, Merrill Lynch International, according to bank clients who received the notice.

A spokesman for Bank of America, William P. Halldin, said the bank didn’t force customers to move trading to the bank’s London affiliates, but did so if clients desired.

In early 2014, the CFTC began fielding reports that banks were using the guarantee loophole to move trades abroad. Gensler’s successor, Timothy Massad, a former corporate lawyer and Treasury official with expertise in derivatives, pledged to investigate.

This June, Massad announced a proposal that would force U.S. banks’ overseas operations to comply with one slice of American swaps rules – setting aside collateral when trading in a category of swaps.

But the guarantee loophole remains, as does the uncertainty that comes with it.

>>> 7 Million People Haven't Made A Single Student Loan Payment In At Least

Next QE 4 ?

From: thechek@mac.com At: Aug 22 2015 19:15:09
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO)
Subject: Fwd:>>> 7 Million People Haven't Made A Single Student Loan Payment In At Least A Year
Perhaps it’s all the talk about across-the-board debt forgiveness or maybe the total amount of outstanding student debt has simply grown so large ($1.3 trillion) that even those with no conception of how much money that actually is realize that it’s simply never going to paid back so there’s no point worrying about, but whatever the case, the general level of concern regarding America’s student debt bubble doesn’t seem to be at all commensurate with the size of the problem. 
And it’s not just the sheer size of the debt pile that’s worrisome. There’s also the knock-on effects, such as delayed household formation and the attendant downward pressure on the homeownership rate, and of course hyperinflation in the rental market. 
Of course one reason no one is panicking - yet - is that the severity of the problem is masked by artificially suppressed delinquency rates. As we’ve documented in excruciating detail, if one excludes loans in deferment and forbearance from the numerator in the delinquency calculation, but includes those loans in the denominator then the delinquency rate will be deceptively low. In any event, as WSJ reports, even if one looks at something very simple like, say, the number of borrowers who haven’t made a payment in a year, the picture is not pretty and it’s getting worse all the time. Here’s more:
Nearly seven million Americans have gone at least a year without making a payment on their federal student loans, a staggering level of default that highlights how student debt continues to burden households despite an improving labor market.

 

As of July, 6.9 million Americans with student loans hadn’t sent a payment to the government in at least 360 days, quarterly data from the Education Department showed this week. That was up 6%, or 400,000 borrowers, from a year earlier.

 

The figures translate into about 17% of all borrowers with federal loans being severely delinquent—and that share would be even higher if borrowers currently in school were excluded. Additionally, millions of other borrowers who haven’t hit the 360-day threshold that the government defines as a default are months behind on their payments.

 

Each new crop of students is experiencing the same problems” with repaying, said Mark Kantrowitz, a higher-education expert and publisher of the information website Edvisors.com“The entire situation isn’t getting better.”

 

The development carries big implications for borrowers, taxpayers and the economy. Economists have warned of student-debt defaults damaging borrowers’ credit standing, which would hurt their ability to borrow for things like cars and homes. That in turn would hamper the economy, which relies heavily on consumer purchases for economic activity. Delinquencies also drain government revenues, which are used to make future loans.
So what’s the solution you ask? According to the government, the answer is the income based repayment plans. Here’s The Journal again:
Education Secretary Arne Duncan said declines [in some categories of delinquencies] resulted from rising participation in income-based repayment plans, which lower borrowers’ monthly bills by tying payments to their incomes. Enrollment in the plans surged 56% over the past year among direct-loan borrowers.

 

The administration has urgently promoted the plans, mainly through emails to borrowers, over the past two years in an effort to stem defaults. The plans set payments as 10% or 15% of their discretionary income, defined as adjusted gross income minus 150% the federal poverty level.

 

The plans carry risks, though, for both borrowers and the government. Many borrowers’ payments aren’t enough to cover the interest on their debt, allowing their balances to grow and threatening to trap them under debt for years.

 

At the same time, the government could be left forgiving huge amounts of debt if borrowers stay in the plans. The government forgives balances after 10, 20 or 25 years of on-time payments, depending on the plan.

 


But aside from the fact that these plans will cost taxpayers an estimated $39 billion over the next decade - and that’s just counting those expected to enroll in plans going forward and ignoring the $200 billion or so in loans already enrolled in an IBR plan - the most absurd thing about Duncan’s claim is that, as we’ve shown, IBR programs don’t drive down delinquency rates, they just change the meaning of the term "payment":
See how that works? If you can't afford to pay, just tell the Department of Education and they'll enroll you in an IBR plan where your "payments" can be $0 and you won't be counted as delinquent.
So we suppose we should retract the statement we made above. You are correct Mr. Duncan, these plans are actually very effective at bringing down delinquencies and the method is remarkably straightforward: the government just stopped couting delinquent borrowers as delinquent.  

>>> Another Huge Chemical Warehouse Explosion Rocks China

Caught On Tape: Another Huge Chemical Warehouse Explosion Rocks China
Who could have seen this coming? 
Just a little over a week after a powerful explosion killed 114 and injured more than 700 in the Chinese port of Tianjin, it appears as though a second blast has occurred at a chemical warehouse, this time in China's eastern Shandong province. A residential area is reportedly located just 1 km away.
We'll await the details which we imagine will suggest that, as was the case in Tianjin, many more tonnes of something terribly toxic were stored than is allowed under China's regulatory regime which apparently only applies to those who are not somehow connected to the Politburo. Indeed, The People's Daily is reporting that the plant contained adiponitrile, which the CDC says can cause "irritation eyes, skin, respiratory system; headache, dizziness, lassitude (weakness, exhaustion), confusion, convulsions; blurred vision; dyspnea (breathing difficulty); abdominal pain, nausea, [and] vomiting."
There are two videos shown below. As of now, there's some confusion as to which is authentic.

Reuters - Tesla engineer joins Apple's growing team of automated car experts

Tesla engineer joins Apple's growing team of automated car experts

DETROIT/SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Consumer electronics company Apple Inc has hired a senior engineer from electric car maker Tesla Motors Inc, according to a LinkedIn posting, as part of Apple's effort to build a team of experts in automated driving.

A LinkedIn profile for Jamie Carlson shows that he has left Tesla and moved to Apple. At least six others with experience developing self-driving technology and systems have joined Apple, according to their LinkedIn profiles.

Attempts to reach all seven people were unsuccessful and Apple declined to comment.

Sources have said that Apple is developing a car and studying self-driving technology, but it is unclear if the iPhone maker is designing a vehicle that could drive itself.

Since January, Apple has hired Megan McClain, a former Volkswagen AG engineer with expertise in automated driving, and Vinay Palakkode, a graduate researcher at Carnegie Mellon University, a hub of automated driving research.

In August, Apple hired Xianqiao Tong, an engineer who developed computer vision software for driver assistance systems at microchip maker Nvidia Corp.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Apple hired Paul Furgale, former deputy director of the Autonomous Systems Lab at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, earlier this year.

So-called advanced driver assistance systems, or ADAS, handle tasks such as keeping a vehicle in a lane or driving by itself in stop-and-go traffic, and they are considered the building blocks for self-driving cars.

According to Carlson's LinkedIn profile, he joined Apple in August in an unnamed position in a special projects group.

Through July, Carlson was an engineer on Tesla's Autopilot self-driving car program, and before that he worked on automotive vision systems for Michigan-based supplier Gentex Corp.

Other Apple hires since September 2014 with similar experience have worked at automakers BMW AG, Volkswagen and Ford Motor Co, automotive suppliers Delphi Automotive, Robert Bosch GmbH and TRW, now a part of ZF Friedrichshafen AG, according to their LinkedIn profiles.

Among those hired last fall were Sanjai Massey, an engineer with experience in developing connected and automated vehicles at Ford and several suppliers; Stefan Weber, a former Bosch engineer with experience in video-based driver assistance systems, and Lech Szumilas, a former Delphi research scientist with expertise in computer vision and object detection.

>>> Google Ventures just led a $100 million investment in this hot startup

Google Ventures just led a $100 million investment in this hot startup

3D printing startup Carbon3D has raised $100 million in a funding round led by Google’s venture capital arm.

Earlier this summer, Ford Motor Company showed off how it was testing 3D printing technology to improve its manufacturing and create new prototypes of car parts more quickly than with conventional methods.

Now the startup that Ford F -3.47% tapped in the initiative has landed $100 million new in funding, led by Google Ventures. Both Carbon3D and Google Ventures declined to disclose the valuation.

The funding round highlights just how hot the 3D printing technology has become, with analysts predicting that the market for it could reach $16.2 billion by 2018. It also shows that Google may be interested in exploring how the technology could be used for its own ambitious initiatives like its self-driving car project.

Carbon3D first showed off its technology to Google GOOG -5.31% co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin during its public premiere at the TED conference in March. It was from there that Google “started a dialogue with us,” said Carbon3D CEO Joseph DeSimone.

“Google has broad aspirations,” DeSimone said, referring to Google’s self-driving car and drone projects. “They are doing a lot of things with hardware and prototyping and the ability to support them in that is going to be very cool.”

The two entities clicked over similarities in certain aspects of their technologies, DeSimone explained. The idea behind Google’s crown-jewel search technology is that its algorithms learn to provide more accurate results as more people enter queries.

Similarly, Carbon3D uses algorithms to help train its 3D printers to make better prints, said DeSimone. “3D printing is plagued with failures,” DeSimone said, but using algorithms can help reduce the likelihood of printing jobs coming out wrong.

The startup routinely prints objects in its labs and collects the data on those prints to finely tune its devices, using algorithms that help with the calculations, DeSimone said. Each time there is a defect in a print, the data from that print job “gets fed back to our algorithm and we learn from our mistakes not to do it again,” he said.

Carbon3D also asks its customers if they are willing to share their printer data with the company so they can use the data to improve their product’s performance.

Joining Google Ventures in the new funding round are Russian entrepreneur and venture capitalist Yuri Milner along with Reinet Investments S.C.A. Previous investors Sequoia Capital, Silver Lake Kraftwerk, and Northgate Capital also participated in the investment.

With the new funding round, Carbon3D now has raised $141 million in total funding.

FT : US crude oil prices dive below $40 a barrel

US crude oil prices dive below $40 a barrel

US crude prices plunged below $40 a barrel for the first time since the financial crisis on Friday, amid increasing signs the year long oil rout still has further to run.
Brent, the international benchmark, also fell to its lowest since March 2009, touching $45.10 a barrel.

The resilience of the US shale industry has prolonged an oil glut that has sent the energy sector into turmoil, as many see low prices persisting for months if not years.
The world’s biggest oil companies have slashed spending and jobs while the budgets of producers countries have been decimated.
West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, was primed for its eighth straight weekly decline, its longest losing streak in almost 30 years.
Oil extended its losses earlier on Friday after Chinese data showed a contraction in factory activity that rippled through global stock markets.
China’s manufacturing sector shrank by the most in six and a half years, adding to fears of economic malaise in the world’s biggest oil consumer. Although demand has remained strong as China takes advantage of cheap oil to bolster its strategic reserves, there are signs of weakness.
“China has sent shockwaves through global markets and raised numerous questions on the outlook,” said analysts at Société Générale, who forecast a “prolonged period of weaker growth in a number of the major emerging markets”.
European equity markets fell sharply following a steep sell-off in Asian stocks and emerging Asian currencies.
“The sour mood was largely mirrored on the oil markets with speculation of easing global demand weighing on the complex,” said David Hufton at London-based oil broker PVM.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was on track for its seventh weekly loss out of eight — down 8 per cent.
Its US counterpart West Texas Intermediate is set for its longest stretch of weekly losses since 1986 — down 6 per cent this week
Data earlier this week showed US crude inventories continued to rise. “WTI had never left a negative momentum but Brent is returning to it,” said Olivier Jakob at consultancy Petromatrix.
Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said he expects the oil price to remain weak in the short run as the market works off a surplus of around 1m barrels a day in the second half of this year.
Opec producers Saudi Arabia and Iraq are still pumping aggressively, while supplies from the US and other non-Opec countries have been more resilient than initially anticipated. Baker Hughes reported the number of rigs drilling for oil had risen by 2 last week
“A sharp increase in Opec crude production and/ or weaker oil demand from emerging Asia in 2016” could be a risk that looms, said Mr Staunovo.

Barron's : Aviva Could Grow 20% After Long Makeover

Aviva Could Grow 20% After Long Makeover

The London insurer has narrowed its markets and taken its hits. Now a new CEO has hiked returns and bolstered the balance sheet.

Diversified insurance and investment management group Aviva could have the right policy for investors’ portfolios. Four years into a restructuring, the London-based company is positioned to lift earnings and to hike returns to shareholders.

Its shares (ticker: AV.UK) look like a good value. At Friday’s close of £4.82 ($7.56), Aviva has a market value of almost £20 billion and trades for a modest 9.4 times estimated 2016 earnings. The company also has American depositary receipts that trade in New York under the symbol AV. The ADRs, which each represent two ordinary shares, were trading Friday at $15.18.

The London-listed stock could climb more than 20% in the next 12 months. A consensus of analysts’ price targets suggests Aviva could be worth £6.07.

Aviva has underperformed since it embarked on a turnaround in 2011. Its shares have added over 50% in the past four years while the Stoxx Europe 600 insurance subsector has jumped more than 170%.

Squeezed by tough economic conditions globally and low interest rates, Aviva in 2011 narrowed its focus from 24 markets to 12 where it had strength and scale. It was a painful decision—in 2012, it posted a net loss of £370 million, largely due to a write-down of £3.3 billion on the disposal of its U.S. life insurance and annuities business.

Another key factor in Aviva’s revitalization was the appointment at the beginning of 2013 of Mark Wilson as chief executive. Wilson, formerly CEO of AIA Group (1299.Hong Kong), has focused on progressive cash flow and growth, brought discipline to costs, and improved capital efficiency. Return on equity improved to 14.6% last year from 12% in 2011. Aviva’s balance sheet has strengthened, too, with 2014 economic capital surplus of £8 billion, up from £3.6 billion in 2011.

Aviva is well placed to meet the European Union’s Solvency II requirements that harmonizes insurance regulations and comes into effect at the start of 2016. The new rules should require minimal adjustments from Aviva, which may be best placed among U.K. insurers to meet them.

Earlier this year, Aviva completed the £5.6 billion all-share acquisition of Friends Life, cementing its dominant position in the U.K. market. The deal adds scale in attractive segments like corporate pensions and brings expertise in unlocking value from life-insurance back books, that is, policies that are no longer sold but still generate premiums. . Aviva can reap generous synergies from the deal. It reported £63 million in the first three months alone.

Aviva’s businesses are performing well, but there is room for improvement. In its U.K. and Ireland life-insurance business, operating profit last year rose 9% to £1.04 billion, almost half of the group total of £2.17 billion.

In general and health insurance, operating profit was flat at £808 million, although its combined operating ratio in general insurance was 95.7%, its highest level in eight years.

The only real disappointment last year was the performance of asset-management business Aviva Investors, which contributed operating profit of just £79 million from assets under management of £246 billion. Friends Life adds about £70 billion in assets at little extra cost.

Aviva continues to pick up new business. The value of new business last year rose 15% to a record £1.01 billion. That momentum was maintained in the first half of 2015, with the value of new business up 25%.

This year, the company is forecast to earn net income of £1.52 billion, or 47 pence per share, down from £1.74 billion, or 48 pence, as integration and regulation costs weigh. Net income is projected to rebound to £1.83 billion, or 56 pence, in 2016. Aviva offers a dividend yield of close to 4%, but that could rise next year if there is excess capital after the implementation of Solvency II.

“Market perception is that this is a ‘slow-burn’ story, but we see little harm in buying the shares at current levels,” notes Deutsche Bank analyst Oliver Steel, whose price target is £6.30, or $19.53 for the ADRs. “The rating is now so low that any positive news should generate upside.”

Barron's : The Merger Fund: Steady Returns From Arbitrage

The Merger Fund: Steady Returns From Arbitrage
The Merger fund’s managers deliver steady, bond-like returns that function like ballast in a portfolio.

Blame it on Wall Street—the movie, that is. The cartoonish protagonist Gordon Gekko, based on the infamous arbitrager Ivan Boesky, became pop-culture shorthand for a profession rife with extremely risky, if not outright criminal, behavior.

Roy Behren and Michael Shannon, managers of the Merger fund (ticker: MERFX), would like to set the record straight: Merger arbitrage is not any riskier than regular stock investing. In fact, it’s less risky and investors craving steady, bond-like returns should take a close look.

Behren, 54, and Shannon, 49, bear more resemblance to the stars of a buddy cop film, ribbing each other while adding to each other’s thoughts. The only issue they seem to disagree on is who’s the better golfer. Both grew up on the south shore of Long Island, but didn’t meet until the mid-1990s, when they began working together at Westchester Capital Management, one of the oldest and largest merger-arbitrage mutual fund firms. In 2010, when the founder, Fred Green, retired, the duo, who were tapped to mind the shop, took over as owners. Behren had served as a prosecutor at the Securities and Exchange Commission, while Shannon worked in mergers and acquisitions at the investment-banking arm of JPMorgan. Both careers gave them a background to build experience in antitrust law, contracts, and the financial strategy behind mergers and acquisitions.

At its root, merger arbitrage is simple: Once a deal is announced, shares of the company about to be acquired typically rise, and eventually trade at the agreed-upon closing price. That price difference is called the spread. In an all-cash acquisition, the Merger fund will simply buy the target’s stock. If the acquirer is using its stock to fund all or part of the deal, the fund shorts the acquirer as a hedge—the acquirer’s shares typically fall, which could wipe out any gain from the spread by the time the deal closes. The main risk is the merger falling apart.

Behren and Shannon, who have run the $5.2 billion fund since 2007, determine the probability of a deal’s close by reading the fine print of contracts and measuring the upside and downside to see if the risk is worth the potential return. The most important factor, Shannon says, is whether the deal makes business sense. “If the strategic fit is compelling enough, the likelihood that the deal will close is much higher, even if the target company has a bad quarter.”

The Merger fund also invests in companies involved in other types of corporate reorganization, such as spinoffs and conversions into real estate investment trusts or master limited partnerships. The fund’s returns have been fairly steady, at 2.3% over three and five years. Granted, that’s a far cry from the average 16% over three and five years, for the Standard & Poor’s 500, but this market-neutral fund doesn’t aim to keep pace with the broad stock market. “The strategy isn’t correlated to the equity markets,” says Shannon. Rather, it’s to act as a ballast—and it does that just fine. In 2008, when the S&P 500 was down some 40%, the Merger fund was down 2%. The Merger fund is the highest-ranked of the 17 merger-arbitrage funds in the U.S., according to Morningstar.

The outlook for the fund is particularly good right now. Global mergers and acquisitions are on pace to hit $4.58 trillion, the highest level on record, according to data provider Dealogic. Higher interest rates, which tend to widen deal spreads, will also help. “So [the fund] could be a way to hedge fixed-income investments,” says Behren.

The fund invests in 80 companies involved in deals that seem most likely to close, while keeping an eye on 200 other names. About 90% of the fund is made up of U.S. deals, and 5% in the United Kingdom, where merger rules are stricter and deals have a higher closing rate, says Behren.

The strategy is more art than science, he adds. “You can’t formulaically say this deal has a 92% chance of closing because X, Y, and Z are happening.” One “tell,” Shannon says, “is when you can look the parties in the eye and gauge a sense of their commitment.”

The more complicated the deal, the wider the spread, and the higher the likely return. “They call them deals with wrinkles, but we love those situations because the spread is artificially wide because there are so many sellers,” says Behren.

In April, the $45 billion deal between cable providers Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC) was terminated when the Justice Department blocked the deal.

The Merger fund, however, didn’t lose on the deal because shares of Time Warner Cable rose on the news—in other words, the spread “went negative.” Then, Charter Communications (CHTR), the fourth-largest cable operator in the U.S., made a $79 billion bid for Time Warner Cable, offering half a Charter share and $100 in cash for each Time Warner share. Merger owned Time Warner shares and shorted half the amount of Charter shares. The deal is expected to close in March 2016, and the fund stands to make a 7% return, or 11% on an annualized basis.

Shannon is optimistic: “There’s not the market-share issue the other deal had, and Charter is much smaller than Comcast, so it’s creating a strong competitor,” he says.

IN LATE MAY, U.S. data-center operator Equinix (EQIX) announced it would buy British data-center operator TelecityGroup (TCY.UK). The transaction is in pounds, so the fund hedged the currency risk to lock in the exchange rate. Equinix will benefit from the global exposure that Telecity offers, says Behren. The expected return is 6%, or an annualized rate of 9%. If the deal doesn’t happen, the fund could lose 19%.

Yahoo! (YHOO) and the potential spinoff of its small-business segment to be called Aabaco Holdings, which will also own its 15% stake in Alibaba (BABA), was on Shannon’s radar for six months. When an Internal Revenue Service official commented in May that it would review spinoff rules, the Yahoo! stub—what would be left of the company post-spinoff—started trading lower. Excluding the Alibaba shares, the stub value of Yahoo! was $5.70 a share, a little more than the cash it had on its books. So the fund bought Yahoo! stock and shorted Alibaba shares. Shannon sees an upside of 12%, 27% annualized, and a downside of 12%.

Barron's : Cancer: The New Cure (BMY, MRK, ROG)

Cancer: The New Cure

Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, and Roche Group are making real gains in the promising new field on immuno-oncology.

Four years ago, Bob Carlson learned he had lung cancer and would probably be dead in 24 months. He endured witches’ brews of chemotherapies, but each treatment eventually failed and made the 72-year-old Connecticut retiree feel so sick that he wished he was dead. Then a doctor at Yale’s Smilow Cancer Hospital got him into an early-stage clinical trial of a drug from the Genentech unit of Roche Holding. One of a new class of drugs that helps the immune system find and fight cancer cells, the Roche treatment shrank Carlson’s tumors without the noxious side effects of chemotherapy. He has been on the drug for two years now, and the tumors have stayed shrunk.

No one’s more astonished by Carlson’s reprieve than he is: “I said all the goodbyes I had to say, and then at the end of two years…here I am.”

Lasting recoveries from chemo-resistant diseases such as lung cancer and melanoma have raised high hopes for so-called immuno-oncology treatments like the yet-unapproved Roche drug received by Carlson. “This is a man who came in with almost no options,” recalls Yale’s oncology chief Roy Herbst. “Now he brings me his new photographs of birds every time he comes in.”

Successes like Carlson’s occur in one-of-four patients, and Herbst says his goal is to make the treatment work for the other three. Immuno-oncology strategies arise from understanding the defenses used by cancer cells to evade the normal search-and-destroy operations of our immune system. By foiling those tumor defenses, I-O drugs allow the immune machinery to do its job of clearing away cancer cells.

SINCE Bristol-Myers Squibb (ticker: BMY) launched the first I-O drug Yervoy against melanoma in 2011, its shares have doubled, and rivals like Merck (MRK), Roche (ROG.Switzerland), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Pfizer (PFE) are investing heavily in a wide range of treatment combinations for many varieties of cancer. There’s opportunity for all. Dozens of biotech firms, such as Celgene (CELG), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Incyte (INCY), are also pursuing promising leads. Immuno-oncology products could eventually ring up annual sales worth tens of billions of dollars for pharmaceutical companies that have struggled with patent expirations on previous blockbusters.

Investors have justly awarded Bristol a premium valuation for its I-O leadership with Yervoy and the even more effective drug Opdivo, which the Food and Drug Administration approved against melanoma in December 2014 and lung cancer in March. With studies under way on nearly two dozen tumor types, Bristol could get a third of its sales from I-O drugs by 2020. There’s still I-O upside to its $61 shares, possibly 20% or more.

However, the less-loved stocks of Merck and Roche could be better bets, with gains of more than 20% -- plus yields of 3.2% and 3%, respectively. Merck has been marketing its I-O drug Keytruda against advanced melanoma for a year in the U.S. and just won approval in Europe. The drug should get U.S. approval against lung cancer in October and is in more than 100 clinical trials on over 30 types of tumors.

Former President Jimmy Carter will receive Keytruda for his cancer.

Roche, too, has a vast program to test the drug Bob Carlson gets -- atezolizumab -- including 11 pivotal Phase III trials against lung, bladder, breast, and kidney cancers. The Swiss company is testing six other I-O drugs in the clinic and has a dozen more in the lab.

AstraZeneca and Pfizer lag behind the other three, but are also increasing their commitments to I-O products that could become nice call options on their shares. I-O drugs are a smaller bet for these companies, both of which are in the midst of corporate makeovers. As a result, it’s hard to make an I-O argument for their stocks.

Valuations of the biotechs working in this field already are very generous. Incyte, for instance, trades for 20 times next year’s forecast sales.

While creating a huge market for drug makers, immuno-oncology’s success could also add $30 billion to our nation’s medical bills, and that’s just for treating the 25% of lung and melanoma cancer patients likely to benefit from existing drugs. As new drugs and combination treatments get results for a larger share of patients, these $100,000-a-year drugs may provoke a fiscal reckoning. Still, that’ll be a nice problem to have. Nils Lonberg, a veteran researcher in Bristol-Myers’ I-O labs, believes these anticancer breakthroughs will allow millions more people to maintain healthy, productive lives. “The productivity that will result from successfully treating patients,” he hopes, “will more than pay for the price of these drugs.”

DOCTORS HAVE LONG SUSPECTED that our immune system had a role in controlling cancer. Over a century ago, a New York surgeon named William Coley noticed that tumors shrank in some patients after they’d fought off severe infections. Only in recent decades, however, have researchers had the tools to understand that cancer becomes a disease -- in part -- because of the ways that mutating tumors interact with our immune mechanisms. Cells are always going haywire somewhere inside us. Our body usually does a pretty good job of recognizing malfunctioning cells and killing them off in the same way it does bacteria and viruses.

But when one or more of the mutations in those cells happen to protect them from immune attack, cancer can grow into a problem. Malignant cancers result from a pernicious kind of evolutionary selection, in which the tumor cells with the trickiest mutations are the survivors. “Cancer is a highly evolved disease,” says Dan Chen, the oncologist who heads cancer immunotherapy development at Roche. “That’s why success has been so difficult to come by.”

A few years back, Chen and his Genentech research colleague Ira Mellman sketched an influential portrait of how the immune system responds to cancer, which we adapt in the graphic above. Fragments from cancer cells in a tumor (No. 1 in graphic) get picked up by cells whose job is to provide surveillance (2), which migrate to a lymph node and present telltale pieces of these cancer antigens to white blood cells known as T-lymphocytes. The T-cells activate, proliferate (3) and migrate back through blood vessels (4) to the tumors (5). T-cells recognize the cancer cells (6) with the help of antibody molecules that other components of the immune system mold to fit the cancer antigens. The activated T-cells attack the cancer (7) with cell-busting chemical weapons, creating new antigen fragments, and restarting the cycle.

Each step in the immune process is controlled by sets of counterbalancing signals that can turn up or down the immune cells’ activities. These natural checkpoints serve to focus the attack on hostile targets, while limiting the damage to healthy bystander cells. The immune system even has dedicated cells whose job is to regulate the T-cells’ attack and keep them from destroying the village to save it. Mechanically, the regulatory signals work through receptor molecules on the T-cell surface. Stimulatory receptors are like gas pedals, and inhibitory receptors are like brake pedals, each having a characteristic socket that can only be reached by the right-shaped key -- called that receptor’s ligand.

What’s now called immuno-oncology took off when researchers led by an immunologist named Jim Allison (now at Houston’s MD Anderson Cancer Center) were able to identify one of the immune-suppressive dodges of melanoma, the dreaded skin cancer. With an infusion of specially developed monoclonal antibodies, researchers were able to block off a receptor that normally tamps down the activity of T-cells. By releasing this “brake,” they effectively boosted T-cell activity against the cancer. One of those antibody drugs became Bristol-Myers’ Yervoy, which allows about 20% of treated melanoma patients to survive at least three years. Some have survived more than a decade.

The newer class of I-O drugs, which includes Opdivo and Keytruda, block cancer cells from flipping a powerful off-switch on T-cells, known as the PD-1 receptor. The drugs have proved to be effective across a broader range of cancers than Yervoy, with milder side effects. “In melanoma,” says Merck’s head of clinical development, Roy Baynes, “the PD-1 antibodies are probably the mainstay treatment now.”

The lasting benefit of I-O treatments is a happy contrast to the resistance that tumors tend to develop against chemo and even the modern treatments known as targeted therapies, like Roche’s Avastin or AstraZeneca’s Iressa. When a targeted treatment blocks a function in cancer cells, the cancer adapts with new mutations that overcome the drug. Scientists must then start over and find drugs for new targets.

Immuno-oncology drugs aren’t directed at a preselected target in the cancer cell. Instead, I-O drugs free the immune system to adapt its fight to cancer’s shifts. “With immuno-oncology drugs,” says Bristol researcher Lonberg, “we’re setting up a fair fight between the adaptable immune system and the adaptable cancer.”

WONDERFULLY AS THEY MAY WORK, these first I-O drugs only help a subset of patients. So the drug companies are exploring combinations with dozens of other treatments that address one or more stages in the cancer immunity cycle. By pre-treating a tumor with chemo, radiation, or a targeted therapy -- for example -- doctors might shake loose more tumor antigens for T-cells to attack.

Early clinical studies are also looking for synergies in combining the “brake release” action of an Opdivo or Keytruda with the “gas pedal” boost from experimental drugs that address stimulus receptors. AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Bristol are each testing various combinations of brake-release and gas-pedal treatments.

Immuno-oncology news has flowed fast this year and promises to become a torrent. I-O studies dominated June’s meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. At the World Conference on Lung Cancer in early September, Roche will report on its PD-1 drug atezolizumab, while Bristol will have data on its Yervoy-Opdivo combo. Later in September, at the European Cancer Congress, Roche could present long-term survival data for its drug combined with chemo.

If I-O drugs fulfill their promise of broad and durable effectiveness, their sales could be unprecedented. Bristol’s asking price for Opdivo is about $150,000 a year in the U.S. and $100,000 in Europe. Several million patients worldwide are now being treated each year for metastatic cancer.

In an April 2015 note, Cowen analyst Steve Scala estimated there will be 2.8 million potential patients worldwide for PD-1 drugs by 2020, half of them with lung cancer and a few percent with melanoma. Using very modest assumptions for market penetration -- 12% of potential lung cancer patients in the U.S. and just 3% abroad -- Scala expects 2020 sales above $12 billion. If new combinations of I-O drugs and other treatments expand the fraction of patients that benefit, his sales forecast for these $100,000-plus treatments could have a big upside.

AS THE I-O PIONEER, Bristol has the best shot at grabbing those sales, with impressive survival data for both Yervoy and Opdivo, and a head start at combining drugs to boost response rates. Bristol’s cancer-drug development chief Michael Giordano says the company has committed to spend heavily on clinical trials to maintain its lead. Cancer drugs brought in 22% of the company’s $15.9 billion in sales last year, with another 28% from antivirals against HIV or hepatitis. Patent protection rolls off this year on top-selling psychiatric drug Abilify, then on HIV drugs in 2018. As a result, Bristol has a lot riding on its success in I-O.

So far, so good. Since its U.S. approval in March, Opdivo has quickly garnered the majority of patients for one kind of chemo-resistent lung cancer. The drug’s Phase III trial on a much more prevalent form of lung cancer was concluded early this year because Opdivo patients were doing so much better than those receiving chemo. That prompted an association of leading cancer centers to recommend that doctors use the drug for the more prevalent type of cancer, even though Bristol has not yet gotten FDA approval to promote it for that indication.

JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott points out in a recent note that Bristol shares trade at almost 30 times his estimate for 2016 earnings of $2.25 a share. That’s a 50% premium to other large U.S. drugmakers -- and that group already enjoys a multiple above stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Still, the JPMorgan analyst thinks the cancer drugs will help Bristol grow earnings nearly 20% a year through 2020. As investors come around to that view, he believes the stock can rise from last week’s $61.07 to $75.

Merck has an even more aggressive development effort behind its Keytruda treatment, with more than 16,000 patients enrolled in over 100 clinical trials. With $40 billion in annual revenue, the company’s $7 billion research budget is 60% larger than Bristol’s. Merck R&D chief Roger Perlmutter has claimed Merck’s I-O development program is the world’s largest, as it tests over 40 different combination treatments in collaboration with other drug companies. The firm has an October review date scheduled for FDA approval to market Keytruda for the biggest lung-cancer market.

But Merck has been out of favor with investors, who fear its revenues have topped out. The company’s arthritis treatment Remicade is seeing competition in Europe from so-called biosimilars -- the biotech analog to generic drugs. In the next few years, its cardiovascular franchise will suffer as patent protection rolls off its cholesterol drug Zetia.

Bulls like UBS analyst Marc Goodman think Merck can revive its sales growth with new vaccines and promising drug candidates for hepatitis, diabetes, and Alzheimer’s. And he sees Keytruda sales rising from around $650 million this year to at least $4.5 billion in 2020. At $55.77, Merck’s stock goes for less than 15 times the $3.85 in per-share earnings that Goodman forecasts for 2016. After a few more years of no growth with revenue near $40 billion, he bets Merck will bust out to $50 billion in sales by 2020. Goodman believes Merck stock is worth at least 20% more than the recent price.

Roche’s I-O products will get to market later than its rivals’. But it could well leapfrog Bristol and Merck with a treatment that combines chemotherapy and the I-O drug atezolizumab against lung cancer. At the June ASCO meeting, Roche showed startling response rates in excess of 60% for the combination treatment in a small study on patients with metastatic lung cancer.

Intriguingly, Roche also tested its combo as a first-line treatment for lung cancer, instead of first waiting for chemo to fail. First-line treatment is a far larger market than second-line treatment, which begins only after the first line fails. Roche’s use of chemo -- and its market-leading diagnostics to identify suitable patients -- could make its combo a thrifty choice for Europe’s budget-constrained health systems. At next month’s cancer research meetings, doctors will be watching to see if the initial positive responses to Roche’s lung cancer combo have continued.

Meanwhile, Roche is on a fast track to U.S. approval for atezolizumab against bladder cancer -- a disease with few current options and consequently a big market. Kidney cancers have also responded well in clinical trials of the Roche I-O drug in a triple combination with two other products.

With over half of Roche revenue coming from anticancer treatments like Avastin, Herceptin, and Rituxan, the Swiss firm has an oncology franchise that it’s fortifying with I-O candidates in addition to atezolizumab. The I-O category has the biggest sales potential of anything in Roche’s pipeline, according to Société Générale analyst Justin Smith, who initiated coverage of Roche this year with a Buy recommendation. On the Zurich bourse, the stock goes for 260.70 Swiss francs ($274), 16 times Smith’s estimate for 2016 earnings of CHF16.6 a share. He sees it rising by more than 25% to CHF330.

Also racing for the huge market of a first-line lung-cancer treatment is AstraZeneca, with three studies of its PD-1 drug alone, combined with chemo, and with another I-O treatment. More than 8,300 patients are receiving its PD-1 drug, named MED4736, in studies against six different kinds of cancer. AstraZenaca has also partnered with AbbVie (ABBV) to test that company’s powerful drug Imbruvica with its own I-O products.

Not to be left out, Pfizer is running large studies on a PD-1 inhibitor avelumab, which it is developing with Germany’s  (MRK.Germany). In early trials, the drug has performed comparably to rivals’. The company has high hopes for combinations of that drug, says Pfizer cancer researcher Chris Boshoff, with two other Pfizer experimental drugs that stimulate immune-system pathways. As the only company with all three of those I-O products in-house, Pfizer will soon start testing the triple therapy in a number of solid tumors.

So the I-O market is starting to look like it could get crowded. But it also looks like we’re finally starting to outsmart cancer, which could make the market huge. Needless to say, both outcomes would be great for patients. “I’ve never seen anything like this,” says Roche researcher Dan Chen. “This is the beginning of a very special time in the history of oncology.”