German IFO chief Sinn: Risks for German economy in 2016 include stronger decline in Chinese economy and new crisis in euro area
The officials at Blade are making sure to check customers’ public social-media accounts to find out if they’ve been naughty or nice before they board Blade flights.
The New York-based private-aircraft ordering app wants to make sure prospective fliers aren’t going to upset their fellow passengers with boozy bad behavior following a night in Margaritaville.
Blade’s flights to Miami are, after all, billed as a “dinner party in the sky.”
Blade has its own popular Instagram destination where fliers post photos of themselves, but insiders tell On the Money the staff has been able to head off some potentially ugly incidents by keeping a close watch on other social-media feeds and suggesting clients take alternative transportation.
Another reason for the surveillance? Figuring out the seating plans so that sworn enemies aren’t located too close to each other.
While the warm weather has kept some New Yorkers close to home this holiday season, we spied ads for Blade in the local Miami media encouraging snowbirds to come home instead.
Emerging Sovereign Group - new Short Position
MArshal Wace bought back 45k
AIG chief pressed to fend off Icahn’s break-up calls
Pressure is mounting on Peter Hancock, the president and chief executive of American International Group, to come up with a compelling plan to boost profits at the giant insurer.
AIG has been under siege from shareholder activists led by Carl Icahn, the veteran campaigner, who wants to see it split into three in order to free capital and escape heavy regulatory burdens.
Mr Hancock’s future has become part of the conversation in recent weeks at well-attended shareholder events organised by analysts, after Mr Icahn hinted he could try to launch a boardroom coup.
Mr Hancock, a former head of the property-casualty unit who was promoted to the top job last year, has argued for keeping the conglomerate more or less intact, announcing plans to thin the ranks of senior managers while promising further “streamlining” measures next month.
But one shareholder told the Financial Times that he thought Mr Icahn’s break-up proposal was smart, and that Mr Hancock might struggle to improve on it. “He has to come out with tremendous data and force as to why [the break-up does not make sense], because the current plan is not going to cut it,” he said.
Another long-term shareholder said Mr Icahn’s plan was unrealistic, but that time was running out for Mr Hancock. Third-quarter results at AIG were the worst in four years, as a big charge for restructuring came on top of poor performance across the business.
“If there are no tangible results in the near term, he realises he is in the hot seat here,” the shareholder said.
The comments are a sign of tensions over the optimal structure for AIG, which was kept alive by a $180bn government bailout at the height of the financial crisis. Under former chief Bob Benmosche, who stepped down in September last year, the group steadied itself by selling assets and restructuring core divisions. Since then, according to Mr Icahn, executives have failed to take similarly radical measures and have delivered consistently sub-par returns.
In a statement on Wednesday, AIG said that it “continues to take steps to streamline its business, narrow its focus to clients, products and geographies that present opportunities for profitable growth, improve financial performance, and return excess capital to shareholders”.
The company added that management and the board of directors had “carefully reviewed a separation of AIG’s businesses on many occasions, including in the recent past, and [had] concluded that it did not make financial sense”.
Mr Icahn, who has been publicly backed by Paulson & Co, another activist investor, argues that AIG should divide into three companies, one offering property-casualty coverage, another selling life policies and a third backing mortgages. Icahn Associates owns about 3.4 per cent of the group’s shares, while Paulson owns about 1.2 per cent.
Josh Stirling, an analyst at Bernstein who claims to have canvassed “hundreds” of AIG investors, said there is broad disaffection over the pace and scale of the measures announced so far. Some were bemused, he said, by a sudden management reshuffle earlier this month involving the chief financial officer and another four members of AIG’s 15-strong operating committee.
“It seems nobody [at AIG] has a clear view of what the company should do,” he said, adding that few investors appeared to have faith in Mr Hancock’s leadership.
“When you speak to people, it’s directionally clear,” he said. “If there’s support for Peter, I haven’t heard it.”
Asian indices traded mixed in light holiday session, with expectations of seasonal low volatility expected to persist in the final week of 2015. Nikkei225 eked out modest gains as soft retail data justified the latest ETF purchase additions to BOJ's QE program. Korea's Kospi was the laggard as Samsung Group conglomerate was reportedly forced to sell some of its holdings in C&T affiliate due to regulatory rules. Shanghai and Hang Seng were down modestly, while ASX was closed for Boxing Day. In FX, USD/JPY was up about 40pips from opening lows, rising above 120.50. EUR/USD traded in about a 30pip range but stayed capped below 1.0980. AUD/USD range was at a narrow 20pip window above 0.7260. Chinese Yuan was set slightly weaker at 6.4750 v 6.4713 prior after last week's rally. China put out its industrial profits data for November, and while the y/y result was the 6th straight decline at 1.4%. Chinese Press reported State Council approved the proposal to adjust China's IPO system from govt-directed to a more liberal registration-based one. New system details are still being worked out by the govt, though reports did suggest it may be in place by Mar of 2016. Sharp(6753 JP) +8.2% on report of Hon Hai bid), Samsung C&T(028260) -3.8% on Samsug SDI ordered to divest stake.
Nikkei+0.56% Hang Seng -1.02% Shanghai-1.64%
Eur$1.0970 CNY 6.4811 JPY 120.47 GBP 1.4914 CHF 0.9868 RUB$ 70.5505 WTI$37.74 (-0.94%)
S&P-0.11% EuroStoxx-0.09% Dax-0.19% SMI+0.05%
Macro :
- Spain Proposes Raising Its Minimum Wage by 1%: Europa Press
- Turkey’s Simsek Says 2016 GDP Growth May Exceed 4.5%: Anadolu
- Japan, France, Italy Will Slip Down CEBR’s Economic League Table
- Greek Govt Mulls Bank Transaction Tax to Fund Pensions: Ta Nea
Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : France’s CGT Union Calls For Air France Strike Jan. 28: Parisien
- AAPL US : Apple sales set to slump in 2016 with no new products, analysts warn - http://bit.ly/22tJf0o
- ATC NA : Altice Buys FC Porto Broadcast, Ad Rights for EU458m: Echos
- AV/ LN : Aveva shareholders demand full auction process
- BSLN SW : Basilea to Consider Ceftobiprole Studies After Talks With FDA
- BT/A LN : BT CEO Sees Super-Fast Broadband Across U.K. by 2025: Telegraph
- BMPS IM : Banca Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena Signs Pact to Sell NPL of ~EU1b
- BMPS IM : Banca Monte Paschi Managers Agree On 2.5% Pay Cut, Union Says
- DTE GY : T-Mobile Polska could conduct further acquisitions - Rzeczpospolita
- DGE LN : Diageo Produces Alcohol-Free Guinness for Indonesia Market: FT
- DIS US : Disney Estimates Star Wars Global Box Office to Date $890.3m
- ERICB SS : Ericsson Aims Beyond Mobile Phone Networks: Corriere
- EQT US : EQT Prepares to Sell Parking Company Parkia, Expansion Reports
- RACE US : Ferrari Recalls 185 My 2016 California T Cars on Fuel Leaks
- MEO GY : Metro Bank Hires Mark Stokes From Williams & Glyn: Telegraph
- OMV AV : OMV Asset Swap Is Backdoor Privatization, Ederer Tells Standard
- PAH3 GY : Porsche, Piech Dominance on VW Board Harmful, Hermes Tells FAS
- RWE GY : German Nuclear Exit Needs Bigger Govt Role, Wenning Tells FAS
- SAN SM : Santander Sells EU400M of Written-Off Loans to Grove: Expansion
- SHARP (6753 JP) : Hon Hai Offers to Buy Sharp for About 300b Yen: Kyodo
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Asian Mid-session Update: China industrial profits post 6th month of decline; Japan retail sales disappoint while industrial output forecast brightens
***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: -2.5% (first decline in 4 months) V -1.4%E; Y/Y: -1.0% (biggest decline in 8 months) V -0.1%E; LARGE RETAILERS' SALES: -1.5% V -0.2%E
- (JP) JAPAN NOV PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -1.0% (first decline in 3 months) V -0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.6% (first rise in 3 months) V 1.6%E
- (JP) JAPAN NOV VEHICLE PRODUCTION Y/Y: +6.0% V -0.5% PRIOR; first rise in 15 months
- (CN) CHINA NOV INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: -1.4% (6th straight decline) V -4.6% PRIOR; YTD: -1.9% v -2.0% PRIOR
- (CN) China State Planner NDRC sees Nov rail freight volume at -15.6% y/y; YTD volume -12.3% y/y - financial press
- (CN) China Shanghai new home sales: -5.4% w/w at 452.8K sqm; avg new home prices -3.0% w/w at 32.3K/sqm - Uwin
- (TH) THAILAND NOV CUSTOMS TRADE BALANCE: $0.3B V $1.7BE; Exports y/y -7.4% v -5.0%e; Imports y/y: -9.5% v -14.5%e
- (VN) Vietnam Q4 YTD GDP Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.6%e (5-year high)
***Index Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.3%, S&P/ASX closed, Kospi -0.8%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Feb S&P500 +0.1% at 2,052
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold -0.3% at $1,073/oz, Feb crude oil -0.3% at $37.83/brl, Mar copper -0.8% at $2.11/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.1 tonnes to 644.8 tonnes
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥350B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥350B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs and ¥140B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian indices traded mixed in light holiday session, with expectations of seasonal low volatility expected to persist in the final week of 2015. Nikkei225 eked out modest gains as soft retail data justified the latest ETF purchase additions to BOJ's QE program. Korea's Kospi was the laggard as Samsung Group conglomerate was reportedly forced to sell some of its holdings in C&T affiliate due to regulatory rules. Shanghai and Hang Seng were down modestly, while ASX was closed for Boxing Day. In FX, USD/JPY was up about 40pips from opening lows, rising above 120.50. EUR/USD traded in about a 30pip range but stayed capped below 1.0980. AUD/USD range was at a narrow 20pip window above 0.7260. Chinese Yuan was set slightly weaker at 6.4750 v 6.4713 prior after last week's rally.
- Economic calendar was most concentrated in Japan with mixed results. Retail sales saw multi-month declines on m/m and y/y basis, but Prelim industrial output findings were more robust. While m/m fell for the first time in 3 months, y/y rose. Outlook for Dec was also revised higher to +0.9% m/m v -0.9% prior forecast, and that of Jan was initiated at an impressive 6.0%. METI maintained its overall assessment for industrial sector as "fluctuating".
- China put out its industrial profits data for November, and while the y/y result was the 6th straight decline at 1.4%, it was much more narrow than the prior months. Among notable press reports from the mainland, the State Council approved the proposal to adjust China's IPO system from govt-directed to a more liberal registration-based one. New system details are still being worked out by the govt, though reports did suggest it may be in place by Mar of 2016. Separately, MOFCOM head Gao speculated 2015 FDI is on track to rise nearly 13% y/y to about $135B, while another cabinet official acknowledged that while reduction of overcapacity is a painful process, but it will not cause huge unemployment. Over the longer term, China's labor force is also set to receive an eventual boost, as the govt has formally confirmed the end to its one child policy today. Recall last month the govt denied the immediate validity of the two-child policy in the wake of the last 5-year plan that put forth this change.
- Elsewhere, Korea's Pres Park requested that the govt prepare measures to boost domestic demand if effect from earlier support runs out in Q1, calling for steps that would raise GDP to 3%. Note that Q3 GDP was at 2.7% y/y. BOK private debt for Q3 was reported at a record high, accounting to 180% of Korea's GDP.
***Equities***
- Consumer discretionary: J.Front Retailing 3086.JP -4.4% (9-mo result); Takashimaya Co 8233.JP +3.4% (9-mo result); DIS: "Star Wars" remained the top earning film in weekend box office with $153.5M in N America sales
- Industrials: Toyo Engineering 6330.JP +2.3% (Thailand contract)
- Materials: China Polymetallic Mining 2133.HK -3.3% (guides FY15 lower y/y); Samsung C&T 028260.KR -3.8% (Samsung SDI ordered to divest stake)
- Healthcare: Takeda 4502.JP +0.4% (deal with Teva)
- Telecom: China Telecom 728.HK -1.1% (CEO under probe)
- Technology: Sharp 6753.JP +8.2% (report of takeover offer from Hon Hai)
The mystery of billionaires’ long marriages
It is remarkable how many of the super-successful have stuck by their first spouse
To be a billionaire, the first thing you need is a personality disorder.
That is what I had always assumed, based on my own experience of having interviewed a few of them. Now I have corroboration from someone who knows what she is talking about. Justine Musk, who spent eight years married to the man behind PayPal, SpaceX and now Tesla Motors, has taken it upon herself to share with the world her view that those who achieve great things are mostly “freaks and misfits”.
Her remarks were in response to an earnest question recently posted on Quora: How can I be as great as Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk or Sir Richard Branson? The short answer, she wrote, is you can’t.
The longer answer amounts to one of the best explanations of success I have ever read. According to her it comes in two types: normal success — involving hard work, talent etc — and extreme success — as enjoyed by her ex. The normal variety she recommends; the extreme version is only available to those who are born that way. “They are dyslexic, they are autistic, they have ADD, they are square pegs in round holes, they piss people off, get into arguments, rock the boat.”
So they find something bigger than themselves to obsess over and work insanely hard, she explains. It is their way of coping.
At a stroke Ms Musk has destroyed the whole self help industry. Seen like this, there is absolutely no point in studying extreme success. If you aren’t born like that, you will never achieve it. And you would not want to anyway.
However, these billionaires remain of zoological interest, particularly in terms of how they manage their personal lives. Ms Musk’s view on this is pretty grim. Extreme success, she reckons, comes complete with “family drama, issues with the Significant Other you rarely see, dark nights of the soul . . . little sleep, less sleep than that.”
In other words, billionaires are rotten people to marry. Which is also precisely what I had always thought.
Mr Musk himself sounds like a particularly bad marital bet: shortly after divorcing Ms Musk he married an actress, only to divorce and remarry her in quick succession. Now he is in the process of divorcing her again.
Yet just as I was congratulating myself on not having married a billionaire, I started thinking about the other names in the Quora question — Bill, Richard and Steve. The remarkable thing about them is not that they have gone through wives as quickly as the twinkling of a bed post, but that they have mostly found one and stuck with her.
Bill Gates, who married Melinda 21 years ago, appears to have one of those marriages so solid that if I discovered the two were splitting up, I would feel let down, as if the world had become a less dependable place. Sir Richard Branson, after a starter marriage in his early 20s, is still married to his second wife after 25 years. And Steve Jobs remained married to the same woman for 20 years, until he died.
If you go down the Forbes billionaires list a weird pattern starts to emerge. More than 40 per cent of all marriages end in divorce, but among the extremely successful, who one might have expected to be extremely unsuccessful in wedlock, the reverse seems to be the case.
Carlos Slim, number two on the Forbes list after Mr Gates, was married to the same woman for 32 years, until she died in 1999. Warren Buffett (#3) remained married to his first wife for 52 years (although for much of that time he was living with a cocktail waitress whom he married on his wife’s death).
Further down the list there are only a few who have exhibited certain traits of ADD in their approach to matrimony: Larry Ellison has had four wives and Ronald Perelman five. They are the exceptions — more of the billionaires seem to be on first wives than those who are not. This is not much of an achievement for Mark Zuckerberg who only tied the knot in 2012, but Jeff Bezos and Michael Dell have been married for more than 20 years apiece, Eric Schmidt for more than 30, Ray Dalio at Bridgewater has notched up about 40 while Phil Knight of Nike is heading towards his golden wedding.
How can such stability happen? These billionaires have all lived in the grip of a rip-roaring obsession with work that should have ruined all relationships, and all have enough money to attract gorgeous new wives — and to pay off old ones.
I have no idea what the reason is, but I wonder if it might be that when the truly weird find someone who suits them, they don’t give them up in a hurry. Or perhaps it is that if you are transfixed by your work, an affair offers insufficient thrill. Or it could simply be that if you hardly ever see your spouse, he or she is significantly less likely to get on your nerves.