>>> Edison targets Eni Gas & Power - Il Sole 24 Ore

Edison targets Eni Gas & Power

Edison, the Italian subsidiary of listed French energy and utility group EDF, is considering making a bid for Eni Gas & Power, Italian language daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. The unsourced report said that Edison could make an offer in 2016.

The report said that Eni Gas & Power is valued at a minimum of EUR 2bn. The item said that parent, listed energy and petroleum group Eni is looking to focus on its core upstream business and is looking to either sell or list Eni Gas & Power.

The report said that listed UK gas group Centrica and international investment funds are also believed to be interested in Eni Gas & Power.

The report added that Edison could partner with F2i, the Italian infrastructure fund, in any bid.

The report said that the acquisition could open the way for Edison to list on the Italian Stock Exchange.

Il Sole 24 Ore

WSJ : Divergence Between Fed, Other Central Banks to Test Global Economy

Divergence Between Fed, Other Central Banks to Test Global Economy

U.S. prepares to keep raising interest rates while Europe, Japan are still easing; currencies and trade could face turbulence

The global economy will be tested by an unusual divergence among the world’s leading central banks in the year ahead: The Federal Reserve is poised to continue raising interest rates while its counterparts in Europe and Japan engage in full-throttle monetary easing.

The U.S. dollar has already strengthened nearly 25% in the past 18 months as investors began to anticipate the prospect of higher U.S. rates. That high exchange rate has already been blamed for crimping exports and putting deflationary pressure on the U.S., and could be a key source of risk for the economy in 2016.

“It will be an interesting experiment,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for the consultancy Capital Economics. “It depends how far everyone goes in opposite directions. Certainly we’re going to get another drag on U.S. exports.”

The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Fed have typically moved in unison since the euro’s launch in 1999. The booming global economy of the late 1990s led all three to raise rates into the year 2000. From 2001 to 2003 all three cut rates in the aftermath of the collapsing tech bubble. Even Japan raised its target rate briefly in 2000, only to lower it back to zero in 2001.

This pattern repeated in the years around the global financial crisis, with the central banks raising rates into 2006 or 2007 but then sharply cutting them as the severity of the recession became clear.

Moving in unison helps buffet currencies from swinging around too wildly. If everyone is cutting or raising rates, there’s less pressure to switch from one currency to another. But if the U.S. offers much higher rates than Europe, it could prompt even more global investors to buy dollars.

The divergence could become quite significant. The Fed has stopped printing money and initiated a quarter-point rate increase in December. Fed officials have estimated they will raise rates one percentage point in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Meanwhile, the ECB in December cut its deposit rate to minus-0.3% from minus-0.2%, meaning institutions have to pay even more to park money there, and has pledged to continue its bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, through March 2017.

If increases put too much pressure on the U.S. economy, the Fed may have to stop raising rates or even reverse course. That was the outcome for the ECB in 2011, when it briefly attempted to raise rates while the Fed was still in the midst of an easing program. The ECB quickly found the eurozone economy wasn’t strong enough to sustain higher rates. The European stock market tumbled and the continent’s debt crisis intensified. By the end of the year, the ECB cut rates.

A similar outcome in the U.S. is not unthinkable, and officials may have to change policy to address it, said Megan Greene, the chief economist for John Hancock Asset Management. “If their mandate is financial stability, they have a responsibility to respond to huge asset movements,” she said.

The divergence could prompt changes in Europe and Japan, too. The flip side of a stronger dollar would be a weaker euro and yen. That could help lift their economies, boosting their manufacturing sectors and providing a more effective stimulus in those economies. “The Fed will do some of the BOJ and ECB’s work for them,” Ms. Greene said.

U.S. exporters and manufacturers could be especially at risk as the divergence plays out. From 2010 to 2014, the U.S. added over 800,000 jobs in durable-goods manufacturing, boosted in part by rising exports. Since March 2015, those jobs have been in decline again.

“Manufacturing has been relatively disappointing,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers. “For the Fed to continue raising rates, they’re going to be looking for progress in the broader economy and that obviously includes manufacturing.”

A strong dollar would also tend to keep commodity prices lower. That would benefit many consumers and businesses that are helped by lower import prices. But it would continue the woes of America’s oil-production industry, another sector of the economy that had been a source of job growth through 2014 but is now shrinking.

WSJ : Rio Tinto: New Spending Is a Hard Sell

Rio Tinto: New Spending Is a Hard Sell

More cost-cutting and a recovery in commodity prices are needed for figures to add up

“What do you need to believe?” analysis in biotech asks what is needed to justify big prices for risky drugs in development. It might have use in mining as well.

Rio Tinto has outshone peers this year, thanks to low-cost iron ore operations and a relatively robust balance sheet. It has recently distinguished itself by moving toward new investment, approving a $1.9 billion Australian bauxite project and completing financing for a $4.9 billion extension to a Mongolian copper mine.

The latter isn’t likely to be approved by Rio’s board until next year. But both projects are in Rio’s spending guidance, for $5 billion next year and $7 billion in 2017.

The latter figure will surely fall. Cost deflation is helping; the $4.9 billion price tag attached to the Mongolian project is under review. But a quick look at Rio’s cash flows suggests the type of recovery needed to underpin its decisions.

Rio’s 2017 operating cash flow would be $5.6 billion, based on mid-December’s spot prices, says Morgan Stanley. Out of that must come investment and Rio’s dividend of about $4 billion.

Suppose Rio cuts its forecast spending for 2017 by 30%. That still would leave a $3.3 billion cash flow hole to fill. A 10% move in iron ore prices, currently languishing at about $41 a metric ton, adds about $1 billion to Rio’s cash flows, based on its latest guidance.

Rio is eyeing its longer-term future, but that is a tough sell with investors fixated on low spot prices and a gloomy demand outlook for most commodities. To make the sums work, it needs a pretty substantial recovery in commodities prices and serious additional cost-cutting. Otherwise, its balance sheet will take the strain.

WSJ : Following the Migrant Money Trail

Following the Migrant Money Trail

People-smuggling trade depends on hawala transfers—largely with no paper trail and often outside the law; new attention on terror financing

ISTANBUL—Behind the reinforced door of an unmarked office in this teeming immigrant neighborhood, a man who goes by the name of Hawez Zaman moves money the same way his predecessors in the Middle Ages did, in an off-the-books transfer system key to today’s spiraling migrant crisis in Europe.

The centuries-old system known as hawala enables users to transfer money from one point to another entirely on the basis of trust—largely without a paper trail and often outside the law.

It is the dominant way migrants flooding into Europe pay for their journeys, used for 90% of the transactions in a people-smuggling trade valued at around $2.5 billion a year in Europe, according to European security officials and researchers. It is used for a further $390 billion a year migrants send back home as part of an informal but widely accepted financial system used across the developing world.

The money flows enabling migrant travel are also drawing renewed attention among terrorist finance investigators, who since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks have tried to monitor hawala systems. “Given what we’ve seen so far, we have very strong suspicions terrorists receive money via hawala,” said Calogero Ferrara, a Palermo-based prosecutor heading a large pan-European people-smuggling investigation. “After the Paris attacks, we have intensified investigations on this front.”

Investigators haven’t found evidence that hawala was used to move money in the Nov. 13 attacks in the city, which killed 130.

Western security officials from nations involved in the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State have warned that the jihadists are using hawala to transfer money from the group’s headquarters in Syria and Iraq to its affiliate in Libya and possibly other regions. A United Nations report in November echoed that warning.

“We are very concerned about hawala being used by ISIS inside and outside of the territory it dominates,” one Western security official said, using another term for the militant group, adding the payment mechanism is an important “part of the ISIS financial infrastructure.”

In Istanbul each day, Mr. Zaman, a stocky 32-year-old Iraqi Kurd, said he receives up to 200 cash payments of €1,500, or about $1,600, on behalf of migrants from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan who are paying smugglers for the first leg of the journey from Turkey to Greece on the way into the European Union.

He also moves money every day unrelated to migrant smuggling in amounts from a few hundred dollars to the thousands.

When migrants reach their destination in Greece, Germany or beyond, Mr. Zaman said he makes a virtual transfer to an associate hawala dealer, or hawaladar, who releases the money at the other end to the smugglers.

For each payment, Mr. Zaman said he charges roughly 5%—or a bit more than half the percentage typically demanded by established money-transfer agents. He saves money by not having to pay compliance, infrastructure and other costs that licensed agents have.

Hawala is also often quicker—a transfer can be almost instantaneous—and can easily reach people in remote areas. Customers include those with low levels of literacy, no bank accounts or credit cards and sometimes no identification documents.

Criminals, meanwhile, like the absence of transaction records, which eliminates the money trail officials use to discover and prosecute crimes. In the traditional system, short-term records are destroyed when transactions are settled, and the use of Skype, Viber and WhatsApp to organize the payments helps elude detection.

“The ‘follow the money’ method doesn’t apply here,” said Andrea Di Nicola, a lecturer in criminology at the University of Trento. “This is a very serious problem, because the movement of money tells you a lot about how the criminal organization works.”

The traditional, no-records system is illegal in most countries. Many hawala dealers operate legally in the Mideast, Africa and South Asia if they register and pay tax, and a highly regulated, licensed form—which requires record-keeping akin to modern money-transfer services—is legal in some Western countries. But few brokers become licensed in EU member states such as the U.K. or Germany, according to a 2013 report by the Financial Action Task Force on money laundering.

“It’s a big problem for the police,” said Patrik Engström, head of Sweden’s border police, which has detected cases of migrants there using hawala to pay for relatives in Italy, Libya, Turkey and Iraq to join them. “Transactions are much harder to trace—where they came from and where they went, who made them and who received them.”

Mr. Zaman operates illegally in a district that has emerged as a global hub for the hawala trade: Aksaray, a hardscrabble neighborhood close to Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar known as “little Syria.” It is one of the world’s largest crossroads for Syrian refugees.

The name is one of the pseudonyms the trader uses in his business—different names for different sets of clients.

Mr. Zaman pours profits into expanding his network and paying off local criminals and police to protect the business.

“People fleeing war zones don’t want to use banks or Western Union; Hawala is easier and something they trust,” said Mr. Zaman. Pulling on a Marlboro, he took calls from clients arriving on the Greek island of Lesbos requesting that money be released to pay smugglers. “This is one of the fastest-growing businesses in Istanbul,” he said. “I would migrate myself, but the money is too good.”

Mr. Zaman said he had no qualms about processing payments that go to human smugglers. “Many smugglers are Syrian and they help refugees reach safety,” he said. “We are helping to finance that and helping them get their money out of Syria.”

Fast delivery
Hawala, or “transfer” in Arabic, first flourished among medieval traders who used it to pay for transactions without sending money or gold along treacherous trading routes. It took root over the centuries in the Middle East, South Asia and parts of Africa.

It is now present in virtually every community established by Muslim and Indian migrant workers in Europe, North America and the Middle East. Chinese migrants use a similar system that they call fei-chien, or “flying money.”

Hawaladars guarantee delivery to recipients within 48 hours, no matter how remote the destination. Funds of all sizes are transferred with no legal contracts. Recipients are given only a code number or simple token, such as a banknote torn in half, as proof that money is due.

Over time, transactions among the brokers mostly cancel each other out. If hawaladars do build up credits or debits, they can settle them through bank transfers in jurisdictions such as Dubai, a global center for hawala clearance, or by carrying cash or valuables like jewelry across borders.

In transit hubs like Istanbul or the coastal city of Izmir, hawala dealers are often based in backrooms of legitimate businesses, like money changers, jewelers or tea houses. Some use official cross-border transactions to settle hawala payments. Last year in Italy, prosecutors found carpet importers from Iran and Afghanistan acting as hawaladars. Officials believe they settled hawala debts by overstating or understating invoices tied to carpet transactions.

Despite its informal nature, cheating and fraud are rare within hawala networks, which are based on tight ethnic or tribal relationships.

“If someone doesn’t go by the rules, he will be ostracized forever,” said Nikos Passas, a Northeastern University professor who has studied hawala. Moreover, a hawaladar’s family and legitimate business could suffer if he defrauded a customer, he added.

Mr. Passas cited the case of a U.K. hawaladar who gambled away customers’ money, causing losses to fellow brokers in Pakistan and Britain. The broker was kicked out of the network and the other brokers shared the losses, he said. In case of disputes between brokers, an elder hawaladar or a committee hears out the two sides and settles the dispute.

Since 9/11, U.S. Treasury officials have worked extensively with other nations in which hawala is a major financial tool to try to stop terror financiers and better regulate those services.

In 2010, Faisal Shahzad, who admitted he tried to detonate a car bomb in Times Square in New York, told investigators that he used hawala money transfers to collect about $12,000 to pay for the attempt.

In 2011, a U.S. District Court in St. Paul, Minn., convicted two Somali-American women of having routed $10,000 to al-Shabaab, the Somali Islamist insurgency the U.S. classifies as a terrorist group, using hawala.

One current case highlights the connection between people smuggling and terrorism. Prosecutors in Sassari, Sardinia, ordered the arrest last April of 22 Pakistan and Afghanistan nationals, alleging they had smuggled people into Italy and collected donations from the Italian Muslim community. According to the charges, the funds were transferred to Pakistan and Afghanistan via hawala, and they were used to finance terrorist attacks in Pakistan.

Prosecutors said the group has had contacts with Islamic State. A trial started this month in Sardinia.

“We are extremely worried about ISIS,” said Danilo Tronci, the leading prosecutor in the case. “We suspect money is now flowing via hawala to ISIS in Syria.”

Other Italian prosecutors say investigations show large proceeds coming from people smuggling have been transferred via hawala to areas of Syria and Iraq that are controlled by Islamic State. Prosecutors also say they believe smugglers pay fees to Islamic State in areas the group controls in Libya.

Hawala is also a vehicle for other criminal activity. In 2010, as much as half of Somali ransom proceeds, or roughly $100 million, flowed out of the country via hawala, according to researchers at Dalhousie University. Four years ago, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Afghanistan’s largest hawala group, alleging it had moved billions of dollars on behalf of corrupt officials, the Taliban and drug kingpins.

But experts say that even though the human-smuggling trade is growing, criminal activity represents a tiny fraction of overall hawala transfers.

Kind of insurance
The use of hawala has expanded with the more than two million migrants who have poured into Europe since 2008. According to European prosecutors and aid groups, migrants use hawala so that they don’t travel with large sums of money through countries where they can be easily robbed, such as Sudan and Libya.

On the Balkan route from Turkey, they sometimes entrust the sum needed for the whole trip to a hawaladar at the starting point of their journey, who then pays smugglers for each leg once migrants arrive at each destination. The hawala serves as a kind of insurance—money is held by the third party until the migrant is safely delivered to his destination.

When migrants arrive on Lesbos, the Greek island that has seen about half a million mostly Syrian refugees arrive this year, they tear open sealed plastic bags holding their cellphones. They call hawala dealers, who then release to the smugglers the money that ensured safe passage.

“It was easy, very easy, to send the money,” recalls Osama, a 26-year-old Syrian-born carpenter living in Berlin who declined to give his last name. He used hawala to pay smugglers to ferry a cousin from Turkey to Greece. He transferred the €1,500 from a Turkish jeweler in Berlin to a Kurdish cafe owner in Istanbul, both of whom moonlight as hawala dealers.

For Said, a 40-year-old Afghan now in Italy, hawala was part of everyday life. When he worked in Tehran for a subsidiary of an Afghan company exporting medicines to Afghanistan, the company used hawala to make payments to its Kabul headquarters. Said, who declined to give his last name, sent money home using the network. U.S. and U.N. sanctions on Iran related to its nuclear program bar large international banking transactions with the country, making hawala one of the few options to move money across its borders.

This summer Said decided to emigrate, first traveling from Tehran to Istanbul. His wife sent him €1,000 via hawala from Iran to Istanbul, paying a 3% fee. Said used hawala for the rest of his journey.

“In Afghanistan, it’s something common and normal,” said Said, who has applied for asylum in Italy, planning to bring his wife later. “When we had to move money from Iran to Turkey, that was the only option.”

The huge flow of migrants into Europe has set off a scramble among official money-transfer companies to take a slice of the business from hawala. Mobile wallets and online transfer services with rock-bottom fees are increasingly targeting migrants for the remittances they send home.

Ria Money Transfer, a subsidiary of Kansas-based Euronet Worldwide, is lowering transfer charges below hawala’s typical 5% rate to target the migrant remittances market.

“The only way to beat hawala is to be efficient, lower internal costs and open new branches to reach more locations,” said managing director Sebastian Publins. Ria has opened in Eritrea and plans to expand in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Eventually, “customers who may have sent money informally, will come to us.”

In November, the EU launched an initiative to encourage transfer companies to lower their fees to less than 3%, in part to discourage the use of informal networks.

Established hawala dealers are working to defend their territory. Facebook pages aimed at the Syrian diaspora in Europe advertise their ability to transfer money back to Syria.

One Arabic-language posting touted hawala’s ability to move money in the Middle East, Greece, Germany and Serbia. In response to questions sent by WhatsApp to the number on the posting, a Syrian who declined to be named said he runs a hawala business from a travel and money-exchange shop in Turkey.

His network sends about $20,000 a day around the world, taking a 5% cut, he said. The broker said he expects profits to rise by 50% this year, in part due to surging demand from migrants in Europe, particularly in Syria and Germany.

He said his network has been recruiting to meet demand, adding 30 brokers in the past year to reach 100 total members.

In the Istanbul neighborhood of Aksaray, the explosion of business has sparked a turf war between gangs, locals and security officials say, with organized criminal groups competing violently.

“We have to pay a lot of people and we have a lot of security,” said Mr. Zaman, who said he has been taking 500 calls a day and sometimes sleeps only a couple of hours a night. “But I have a history in this trade so I can protect myself.”

(FBR) Crystal Ball for Software in 2016; M&A, Growth, Cloud Spending...and Anoth

Crystal Ball for Software in 2016; M&A, Growth, Cloud Spending...and Another Ring for Curry?

FBR Capital notes although they expect many of the same next-generation software technologies from the past couple of years to continue garnering investor interest in 2016, they believe the vendors disproportionately poised to benefit from increasing adoption and more broad-based consumption will be front and center as these technologies inch toward becoming the core DNA of next-generation data centers for enterprises/governments worldwide. To this point, with the ongoing explosion of data, they expect vendors with strong cloud, security, and big data analytics offerings to be well positioned to capitalize on robust market growth in 2016, as firm is seeing a transformational era of IT spending in which next-generation technology vendors look to be the clear winners at the expense of traditional tech vendors (Oracle, HP, IBM, EMC/Dell). Favorite names for 2016 are Palo Alto, Proofpoint, Qlik, Splunk, Synchronoss, NICE, and Microsoft.

>>> Natural Gas (NG1) Continue to be very volatile -4.6% today...

NG was up 5% yesterday on winter storms and forecasts for colder weather in the US

WTI -2.55% @ 36.90...after API yesterday


Natural gas earlier this month fell to a 14-year low, but has jumped more than 60 cents in a little more than a week on indications of strengthening seasonal demand in coming weeks, short covering, and reports of production shut-ins in the Permian Basin, located in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, as a result of winter storms, wrote analysts at Tradition Energy, in a note.


The analysts said upside might be limited, however, due to “record storage levels of gas, robust production levels, and expectations that the cold weather that is forecast for the first part of next month will last for less than a week.”

Meanwhile, oil futures took back much of the ground lost in the previous day’s rout.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February CLG6, -2.38% rose $1.06, or 2.9%, to finish at $37.87 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark remains down more than 9% since the end of November and is on track for a 2015 decline of nearly 29%.

February Brent crude LCOG6, -1.61% on London’s ICE Futures exchange added $1.17, or 3.2%, to finish at $37.79 a barrel. The global benchmark is down more than 15% in December and is on track for a 2015 drop of more than 34%.

Reuters - Global growth will be disappointing in 2016 says IMF's Lagarde

Global growth will be disappointing in 2016 says IMF's Lagarde

Global economic growth will be "disappointing" next year, the head of the International Monetary Fund said in a guest article for German newspaper Handelsblatt published on Wednesday.

"In many countries the financial sector still has weaknesses and in emerging markets the financial risks are increasing. All of that means global growth will be disappointing and uneven in 2016," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.

She added that low productivity, aging populations and the effects of the global financial crisis were putting the brakes on growth, which has weakened the medium-term prospects.

FT : Fund failure exacerbates liquidity fears

Fund failure exacerbates liquidity fears

Corporate debt has been one of the slam-dunk investments of the post-financial crisis era, handing investors juicy and stable returns. As a result, billions of dollars have gushed into the market. But some fear the party is about to result in an epic hangover.
Simmering skittishness over the US corporate bond market morphed into near-panic earlier this month, when a small high-yield bond mutual fund abruptly announced it had to halt redemptions and wind itself down.
Although Third Avenue’s “Focused Credit Fund” was an outlier due to the sheer junkiness of its portfolio, its collapse exacerbated concerns over two of the dominant market trends of the past half-decade: massive retail money inflows into corporate bond funds; and the mounting difficulty of trading bonds they hold. Together, they could spell trouble.

The Office of Financial Research, a body set up inside the US Treasury in the wake of the financial crisis to monitor and analyse dangers in the financial system, highlighted the FCF debacle as an illustration of “the risks of liquidity mismatch in some mutual funds” in its first annual financial stability report.
“The combination of weak fundamentals and reaching for yield in recent market conditions makes a recurrence of such events likely,” the OFR warned.
Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England struck the same cautionary note in its own semi-annual financial stability report earlier this month.
“The potential risks to financial stability connected with investment funds’ activities relate to their prospective impact on markets, particularly where they offer short-term redemptions to investors while investing in longer-dated and potentially illiquid assets,” the UK central bank said.
Are the worries justified?
Market liquidity is tricky to define, but the simplest way of describing it is the ability to trade a security quickly, smoothly and without moving the price too much. Traders say this has atrophied across most markets in recent years, but as the charts from Citi (below) show, headline trading volumes look healthy across asset classes.
Furthermore, the difference between the price investors are willing to buy or sell a security — a popular gauge of liquidity — also looks robust. These three charts from Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and Citi that show the “bid-offer” spreads for investment-grade and high yield corporate debt, Treasury bonds and equities respectively.

However, these charts do not account for the fact that the size of markets has expanded significantly since the financial crisis, and do not reflect important market structure shifts. Average bid-offer spreads do show how hard it can be to trade when markets are choppy.
Corporate bonds are the epicentre of bond market liquidity concerns. While even Treasury bond turnover is down, fund managers complain that “credit” is the hardest to trade these days. If you adjust the trading volumes for the market size a bleaker picture of liquidity emerges, as the charts from JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank show.
Part of the problem is banks being forced to trim their corporate bond market trading operations by regulations and shareholder pressure to curtail risks. Banks have now closed once-sprawling “proprietary” trading desks and retrenched their market-making operations. The cuts have been particularly ferocious in corporate bonds. Wall Street’s portfolio of investment grade corporate bonds even briefly turned negative earlier this year.
Concerns have been exacerbated by the widening “liquidity mismatch” at the heart of the market. Mutual funds have become increasingly important players in corporate bonds, but their money comes from retail investors who can pull out whenever they want, even though the underlying securities their funds buy are increasingly illiquid. The FCF failure is a good example of what can happen when a mutual fund with illiquid holdings is hit by big investor withdrawals.
Citi’s chart below shows how the mutual fund complex has expanded in recent years.
The upswing in mutual fund ownership of the US corporate bond market has been particularly sharp. Retail investors, burnt by two savage equity market drops in less than a decade, have recoiled from stocks and ploughed billions of dollars into debt issued by US companies.
Not only does the rise of mutual fund and exchange traded funds hurt trading — they tend to buy and sell less frequently than banks used to — they also exacerbate the widening divergence between the stability of money in the market and its tradeability.
“These funds may not be able to liquidate their investments as quickly as their shareholders can withdraw capital, presenting redemption risk for the funds and fire-sale risk for the markets in which they participate,” the OFR said.
To the left is a chart from the New York Fed showing how mutual fund ownership of corporate bonds has as a result ramped up dramatically since the crisis. They now hold over 20 per cent of the entire market.
But retail investors piling into corporate debt have also helped encourage executives to take advantage of their largesse. US companies have been gorging on cheap debt lately, spending the proceeds on an acquisition spree and buying back their own shares.
The result is a record pile of corporate bonds. As a percentage of US gross domestic product, corporate indebtedness is now approaching the pre-financial crisis peak, the OFR noted (see chart to the left).
Many analysts are now worried that the “credit cycle” — as they call the well-established boom-to-bust lifespan pattern of corporate debt — is now approaching the inevitable, painful denouement.
Although the pain is most apparent in the energy sector, the fallout is spreading as the Federal Reserve looks to tighten interest rates further during 2016. UBS recently estimated that as much as $1tn of US corporate debt could be in the danger zone as interest rates rise in the coming years.
Below is a visual representation of the credit cycle, again courtesy of the OFR. The body’s analysts reckon that the US is closer to the downturn stage than any other major region.
The New York Federal Reserve argued in a series of research articles this year that concerns over bond market liquidity were overwrought, even in corporate debt.
In one post the central bank branch’s researchers aimed squarely at quelling fears over the rising role played by mutual funds and the declining part played by bank dealing desks, and highlighting how investor flows into bond funds were as stable as in the past (see the chart below to the right).
The NY Fed therefore concluded: “Even if we do observe large mutual fund redemptions in the future, our evidence does not suggest that reduced dealer positions will exacerbate the effects on corporate bond pricing and liquidity.”
Yet tellingly other regulatory bodies are less sanguine. The FCF failure might be a one-off blip, but the issues it highlighted are not going to go away.
“The recent rapid growth in open-ended funds, and their continued investment in less liquid assets, has reinforced the risk that large-scale investor redemptions could result in sales of assets by funds that might test markets’ ability to absorb them,” the Bank of England said in its stability report.
“The risk is that this could impair market liquidity, which is already fragile, particularly in markets that are important for extending funding to the real economy.”