Chaque jour la tache d’huile s’étend un peu plus. Le groupe Volkswagen (VW), premier constructeur automobile mondial, ne parvient pas à colmater les fuites du scandale lié au logiciel qui a faussé les données de pollution au dioxyde et monoxyde d’azote (NOx) de 11 millions de moteurs diesel.
Les Etats-Unis ont décidé de bloquer la vente des nouveaux modèles diesel du groupe allemand, alors que la Suisse a décrété l’interdiction de la vente des voitures neuves diesel qui ne correspondent pas à la norme Euro 6. 180 000 voitures des marques VW, Audi, Skoda et Seat sont concernées.
L’Espagne fâchée
En Espagne, où plus d’un demi-million de moteurs truqués ont été fabriqués, il est question d’exiger de Volkswagen le remboursement des primes offertes à l’achat de véhicules dit «propres» (2000 euros, soit 2192 francs par véhicule). Et aux Etats-Unis, où le groupe Volkswagen risque des pénalités à hauteur de 18 milliards de dollars (17,6 milliards de francs), une cinquantaine de plaintes collectives contre le groupe allemand ont déjà été déposées.
La course au rabais est lancée outre-Atlantique pour éviter, autant que faire se peut, la débâcle. L’achat d’une VW Passat ou Jetta coûte désormais de 5000 à 7000 dollars meilleur marché. 80% des véhicules du groupe Volkswagen vendus aux Etats-Unis sont équipés d’un moteur diesel. Le scandale menace l’existence de l’usine de Chattanooga, dans le Tennessee, où travaillent 2500 personnes. Les installations ont bénéficié de subventions des autorités américaines à hauteur de 900 millions de dollars.
Bosch impliqué
Une autre entreprise allemande, le fournisseur Bosch, se trouve aussi impliquée dans la tourmente. C’est en effet cet équipementier qui a fourni à VW le logiciel qui a permis de fausser les tests de pollution. Ces derniers sont réalisés à vitesse réduite sur des rouleaux d’essai. Le comportement particulier du véhicule (deux roues sur quatre en mouvement, volant statique, GPS fixe) était détecté et lançait la procédure de falsification des données NOx. Bosch se défend, dans la presse allemande, en disant que le logiciel avait été clairement fourni en 2007 à VW pour des essais, et non pour équiper les véhicules.
Chargé de faire cesser l’hémorragie, Matthias Müller, 62 ans, patron de Porsche, remplace au pied levé Martin Winterkorn, «démissionné». «Nous pouvons et nous allons surmonter cette crise», a promis vendredi dernier le nouveau patron. Le groupe Porsche, déjà propriétaire majoritaire de VW, a par ailleurs profité de la chute du cours du titre (34%, soit quelque 20 milliards d’euros) pour acheter, à un prix resté confidentiel, des actions en mains du constructeur japonais Suzuki. Le contrôle de Porsche sur le groupe VW passe donc de 50,7% à 52,2%.
Le scandale éclate aujourd’hui à cause d’une décision stratégique prise il y a huit ans, comme l’explique dans le détail le journal dominical allemand Bild am Sonntag.
En 2005, alors que le groupe Volkswagen faisait face à une perte de rentabilité et préparait un programme de réduction des coûts, deux personnes étaient chargées de développer un moteur diesel pour le marché américain, où les normes d’émission de NOx sont deux fois plus sévères qu’en Europe et très difficiles à respecter pour les moteurs de cylindrée moyenne de la gamme Volkswagen. Ces moteurs «chauffent» davantage, ce qui entraîne une forte émission de NOx. Wolfgang Bernhard, responsable de la marque VW, engage un ingénieur, Rudolf Krebs, afin de développer un prototype de moteur diesel «propre».
Ingénieurs désavoués
Les deux hommes optent pour la technologie dite SCR qui consiste à neutraliser les NOx (-80%) par l’injection dans le système d’échappement, via un catalyseur, d’un mélange d’urée et d’eau contenu dans un petit réservoir. Le prix de revient d’un tel dispositif est de 300 euros (329 francs) par véhicule. Les ingénieurs insistent pour que ce système soit adopté.
En vain. Il est jugé trop cher par les responsables de VW qui optent, en 2007, pour un équipement plus simple sans doute accompagné du logiciel à l’origine de la fraude. 2007, c’est aussi l’année de l’arrivée au pouvoir de Martin Winterkorn, qui remplace les développeurs du moteur diesel EA189 par deux autres responsables. Les dégâts consécutifs à cette décision, prise pour économiser quelques centaines de millions d’euros, se chiffrent aujourd’hui en dizaines de milliards d’euros.
Subject: Le roi Saoudien : "Pour des africains, mourir loin d'Ebola et le ventre plein est une bénédiction" - El Manchar
https://el-manchar.com/2015/09/25/le-roi-saoudien-pour-des-africains-mourir-en-ce-lieu-saint-loin-des-guerres-debola-et-le-ventre-plein-cest-deja-une-benediction/
« Nous venons d’apprendre que la plupart des pèlerins décédés étaient originaires d’Afrique, une région du monde où la mort fait partie du quotidien de la population. Il faut donc revenir au calme et ne pas trop s’alarmer pour les familles des victimes. De plus, il est certain que pour des africains, mourir en ce lieu saint, loin des guerres tribales, des maladies comme le sida ou ebola et en ayant le ventre bien rempli… que dire, il faut simplement considérer cela comme une bénédiction divine ». A la fin de son allocution, alors qu’un journaliste lui faisait remarquer que l’on comptait tout de même 131 iraniens parmi les morts, le roi s’est contenté de répondre laconiquement: « Les chiites…que Dieu les guide sur le droit chemin ».
Barron's Summary: Positive on ADSK and on auto parts firms that sold off in react to VW scandal
Cover story: To care for elderly parents, wealthy families are increasingly turning to their private bankers for advice; There are a growing number of situations in which two generations of retirees coexist within a single family, as baby boomers retire while their elderly parents are still alive; People 85 and older constitute the fastest-growing age group in the country.
Features: 1) Positive on BWA, DLPH, GNTX, HAR: Shares of companies with exposure to Volkswagen have sold off in the wake of the automaker's emissions scandal, but their growth prospects remain strong and shares are cheap; 2) Positive on ADSK: Design-software maker's move to a cloud-based subscription service has dented the share price, but the benefits of the new strategy could be substantial in a few years, and pay off for investors; 3) Emerging markets have yet to hit bottom, and though "there is value to be had in emerging-market bonds and currencies," it's unclear when that value will materialize; some bond ETFs remain good options (Positive on LEMB, EMB, CEW).
Tech Trader: Positive on PANW, FTNT, IMPV, PFPT, RPD: Security technology firms continue to thrive amid the growing concern about cyberattacks, and their shares now carry high multiples; less-than-stellar earnings reports could be a buying opportunity, while investors seeking bargains could opt for names such as FEYE, RDWR, and SYMC.
Trader: The market is likely to face more volatility through seasonally weak October; Positive on BBT: Shares are down along with other financials, but firm-which gets lumped in with traditional banks-isn't as sensitive to rates as most regionals are, and it could be a growth story; Cautious on DWRE: Sales are growing at seller of cloud-based services to retailers and consumer brands, but after nearly a decade in business the firm still lacks strong profits, and its expenses are outpacing sales.
Small Caps: Positive on EPC: Share price of personal-care product company has dropped since it was spun off from ENR, but it still owns well-known brands and the stock is likely to head back up.
Profile: Jeff Osher, portfolio manager, Harvest Small Cap Partners Strategy, focuses on business-model changes that could create opportunity in technology, consumer, and financial- and business-services stocks.
Interview: John Buckingham, chief investment officer, Al Frank Asset Management, says that "the fact that most investors aren't buying stocks en masse indicates a tremendous amount of fear out there" (picks: DIS, AMGN, NOV, GM, AUY).
Follow-Up: Cautious on JBLU: Airlines' shares have risen 150% in the past year amid a host of management changes, but the improvements may be priced in at this point and investors may want to take profits.
European Trader: Positive on DEO: Spirits company's outlook is improving after a few years of less-than-stellar growth, which could lead to a modest improvement in earnings and a 25% return during the next 12 months.
Asian Trader: An improving housing market in China might seem a ray of hope for investors in developers, but only a handful of shares are likely to benefit (Positive on China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, KWG, Shui On Land.
Emerging Markets: Vietnam is becoming one of the top Asian stock markets, and with strong GDP growth, increasing stature as a manufacturing hub, decent earnings growth and cheap valuations, it could be the answer for investors in the region.
Commodities: "After a relentless decline in recent months to a five-year low, palladium could be about to motor higher."
Streetwise: Cautious on Volkswagen: The recent emissions scandal has hammered shares, but "could pave the way for the auto company to overhaul management and implement reforms." Penta: America's top 40 wealth management firms; A look at India's undervalued modern and contemporary art market; How investors should handle overseas dividends; Trusts paired with low-cost infrafamily loans can create rich and tax-free returns.
Weekly Performance
Dow-0.43% S&P-1.36% Nasdaq-2.92% Russell Nikkei-0.81% Hang Seng-3.35% Shanghai-0.18% Brazil -5.15% EuroStoxx-1.40% FTSE+0.08% CAC-1.22% Dax-2.30% Ibex-3.33% MIB-0.82% SMI-2.67%
After the chaos of August, global equities have moved sideways in September as the Fed holds rates steady, Beijing keeps propping up its economy and Europe makes baby steps toward growth. The week saw plenty of dramatic corporate stories (Volkswagen's Dieselgate, Glencore's slide lower, biotech drug pricing) and mixed data (better European PMIs, better US GDP, more bad Chinese numbers), but there was an absence of catalysts that would break markets out to the upside or the downside. Meanwhile, major media was distracted by the theatrics of overlapping US state visits by Pope Francis and China President Xi, not to mention the resignation of House Speaker Boehner and the diplomatic maneuvering leading up the UN General Assembly. For the week, the DJIA slipped 0.4%, the S&P500 lost 1.4% and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.9%, weighed down by biotech names.
Macro :
- Putin May Accept Peacekeepers in Ukraine’s East: Independent
- Germany to Speed Up Residence Permits for Syrians: Der Spiegel
- EU Real Drive Emission Diesel Tests Targeted for Jan: Hendricks
Keep an eye on :
- ABBN vx : Cevian Met With ABB Chairman for First Time: SonntagsZeitung
- AF FP : Air France Offers EU100 Mln to Employees in 2017 If Cuts Work
- ALV GY : Allianz Considers Selling Assets Within Euro Portfolio: FT
- BARC LN : Barclays in Talks W/ Buyers for Bank’s Brazilian Assets: Sky
- BAYN GY : Bayer Says FDA Approves New Version of Betasearon Autoinjector
- BOSCH : Bosch Warned VW Over Planned Use of Software in 2007: Bild
- DAI GY : Daimler Says Van Software Updates Not Related to VW Scandal
- SDF GY : K+S Plans Acquisitions, Sites in Asia, Australia: Frankfurter
- MEO GY : Metro Said to Abandon Talks to Buy Oetker’s Fine Foods Supplier
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Sees Introducing Tresiba in U.S. in 1Q
- PAH3 GY : Porsche Buys 1.5% Volkswagen Stake From Suzuki to Expand Holding
- PAH3 GY : Volkswagen Unit Porsche Said to Name Oliver Blume as New Chief
- ROG Vx ; Roche Says Positive PDL1 Data in Lung, Bladder Cancer Trials
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce May Move Research If U.K. Cuts Support: Sunday Times
- RSA LN : RSA to Sell Russian, Mideast Divisions, Sunday Times Reports
- RYA LN : Ryanair Can Be ‘Amazon for Travel,’ CEO O’Leary Tells FT
- SAB LN : AB InBev May Submit GBP70b SAB Miller Bid Within Days: S. Times
- SZG GY : Salzgitter CEO sees eventual merger with Aurubis - Reuters
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia wants to close Inwit sale or merger by year-end - Reuters
- TSLA US : Tesla Opens First European Factory in the Netherlands, FT Says
- UBSN VX : Netherlands Asks Swiss for UBS Account Holder Names: Le Temps
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen Internal Evaluation Found About 5M Cars Affected
- VOW3 GY : VW Spvy BD Meeting Ended, Mueller Elected CEO: Handelsblatt
- VOW3 GY : Italy’s Renzi Says VW Should Be ‘Severely Punished’: Ansa
- VOW3 GY : Switzerland Sets Temporary Sales Ban on Affected VW Cars: AWP
- VOW3 GY : Suzuki Motor Says It Sold All Its Shares of Volkswagen
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen Employee Warned Carmaker Over Software in 2011: FAZ
- VOw3 GY : VW Asks Italy Dealers to Halt Sales of 2,500 Cars, Ansa Reports
- VOW3 GY : Spain Says VW Must Repay Efficiency Subsidies, El Pais Reports
ECB suspends purchase of loans backed by VW assets
The European Central Bank has suspended buying bundles of loans backed by Volkswagen assets as it reviews the financial implications of the scandal engulfing Germany’s biggest carmaker.
The plunge in VW shares by almost a third in 10 days has prompted the central bank to review whether to bar VW paper from its bond purchase programme.
Such credit reviews are a routine part of the ECB’s efforts to protect taxpayers as it rolls out its scheme to buy asset-backed securities, which began in November last year.
But the fact that VW, one of Europe’s biggest issuers of debt, is under the microscope underlines the severity of the problems faced by the group, and the potential knock-on funding effects of the scandal.
Shareholders raced to offload VW stock last week after US regulators revealed that the company rigged US emissions tests for its diesel cars by using so-called defeat devices. The allegations forced the departure of VW’s chief executive and rocked Europe’s carmaking industry.
Results from the ECB review are expected as soon as this week and insiders said the exclusion of VW from the ECB’s bond buying was not a forgone conclusion.
While the risks to VW’s creditworthiness have increased markedly in the wake of the allegations, German public bodies remain big shareholders in the group, reducing the danger of default.
In depth: Volkswagen emissions scandal
The ECB declined to comment. The central bank’s programme buys assets, from mortgages to car loans, that have been bundled together through a process called securitisation. Frankfurt sees such purchases as a way to boost lending in Europe because asset-backed securities are a source of funding for banks.
Securitisation markets have struggled to recover since the 2008 financial crisis and the lack of issuance is one of the main constraints on the ECB bond-buying efforts. As of mid-September, the ECB had bought just under €12bn of asset-backed securities, an intervention dwarfed by the central bank programmes to buy covered bonds and sovereign debt.
Matthias Müller faces huge challenges restoring VW’s credibility
As chief executive of Porsche, Matthias Müller had one of the nicest jobs in global carmaking, leading a trusted and perennially profitable maker of luxury sports cars.
Following his appointment as chief executive of Volkswagen on Friday, he now has the hardest job in the industry, fronting a brand that in the past week has been tarred by the diesel emissions scandal.
Mr Müller faces a gargantuan challenge to mend VW's broken public image over the coming months and regain the trust of customers, investors and regulators.
VW admitted last week that some 11m vehicles were fitted with so-called defeat devices that understate dangerous nitrogen oxide emissions in laboratory tests.
Investors fear VW could be hit with billions of euros of fines, recall costs and lawsuits, and its shares have fallen 34 per cent since US regulators revealed the cheating 10 days ago.
US regulators are angry that VW took more than a year to admit it had used defeat devices. But now the wrongdoing has been exposed — and conscious that General Motors and Toyota were seen as having moved too slowly to respond to previous scandals — VW is trying to step on the gas.
"The only thing that is going to make traction right now are facts, facts, facts or actions, actions, actions," a person close to VW said.
Martin Winterkorn resigned as chief executive less than a week after US regulators exposed the cheating and VW has since suspended several employees and hired a US law firm to comb through documents and emails.
Stressing that its vehicles are still safe to drive, the German carmaker said it was working full speed on a technical solution for the affected cars and will present this to regulators in the coming days and then begin repairs.
On Friday, Berthold Huber, VW's interim chairman, described the scandal as a "political and moral catastrophe" for VW and said the company could not simply carry on as before.
Mr Müller, 62, has spent his whole career at VW subsidiaries and he is close to the Porsche and Piech families that own a majority of VW voting shares.
However, a person close to VW said Mr Müller was "very different to Winterkorn, he has a certain critical distance, he is more nonconformist and more international. At the same time he knows how VW works."
Arndt Ellinghorst, analyst at Evercore ISI, said the former Porsche chief executive was "the right guy for the job . . . The most important thing will be to transform VW into an accountable and performance-oriented business. This is big and good news in all the darkness these days."
In contrast to Mr Winterkorn, who was a poor public speaker, Mr Müller is confident and direct. These are qualities that will be tested repeatedly in the coming weeks as he is grilled by politicians, regulators and the media.
Max Warburton, analyst at Bernstein Research, said VW needed to "move very fast and very dramatically if it is to stop the spiral and save its reputation with regulators and consumers".
VW requires "a massive public relations campaign on the ground in the US," he said and should send the new chief executive there "right away".
Following a management reshuffle approved by VW directors on Friday, Mr Müller will be assisted in rehabilitating VW's US image by Winfried Vahland, the former Skoda boss, who will now lead VW's North American operations.
Under predecessor Martin Winterkorn, decision-making at VW was highly centralised and more junior managers were frightened to speak their mind. In contrast, Mr Müller is considered more of a team player.
"In the future we need a culture in which problems are not concealed but are openly communicated to superiors. We need a culture in which [employees] are able and permitted to argue with managers about the best path," said Bernd Osterloh, VW's chief labour representative and an influential supervisory board member.
Underscoring the gravity of the situation, Mr Osterloh has already warned that in addition to a €5bn efficiency programme at the core VW brand, employees will now have to find further cost savings to help pay for the financial damage caused by the scandal. VW has set aside €6.5bn to cover the cost of potential fines and repairs, but some analysts fear the final costs will be higher.
The big unknown for Mr Müller is how far the scandal will impact consumer demand for its diesel cars, which make up more than half of VW vehicle sales in Europe. Even before the scandal, VW's sales had already begun to slow in China, its biggest market and a big source of profits.
“Given the ongoing investigation, consumers could say, ‘Well, why should I still pay a premium for a VW?’,” said Horst Schneider, an analyst at HSBC.
Arctic oil to start flowing from €5.6bn polar platform
In an industry where everything is big, Goliat will take some beating. Designed to weather the worst Arctic storms and hold nearly a million barrels of crude, Eni’s 64,000-tonne oil platform is about to prove whether money can be made in the world’s last unexplored frontier.
More than a decade after the company struck oil in the Barents Sea, industry experts say the €5.6bn platform, beset by delays and cost overruns, is undergoing final tests and will begin production imminently.
“It’s there, it’s connected, it’s done. It’s starting in a few weeks,” one insider said.
With output expected to peak at 100,000 barrels per day, the field’s start-up, two years later than originally planned, will come as a relief for the Italian energy group, which has a 65 per cent stake in the project. Norway’s Statoil holds the remainder.
The fall in oil prices since June last year has called into question the viability of high-cost production in areas such as the Arctic. Royal Dutch Shell is drilling in the Chukchi Sea off Alaska, but dozens of other projects have been put on hold.
Goliat will be only the second producing oilfield in the polar region and the world’s most northerly. Lying more than 80km off Norway, it is estimated to hold 174m barrels of recoverable oil reserves and 8bn cubic metres of gas.
The floating, cylindrical platform, likened to a beer glass, arrived in Hammerfest on Norway’s north coast earlier this year after a trip of more than 15,000 miles from South Korea. It holds a cinema and health club and can accommodate 120 workers in its round hull.
Such a project, which some believe could require oil prices as high as $80 to $90 per barrel to break even over its 15-year life, would have little chance of winning approval in today’s gloomy sub-$50 environment. Its delivery, though, should help Eni, which cut its dividend in March, shore up cash flow.
Goliat, and recent finds such as this month’s Zohr gas discovery off the coast of Egypt, are at the heart of Eni chief executive Claudio Descalzi’s strategy of shifting the company’s focus to upstream exploration and production.
As industry-wide discoveries of new oil and gas reserves have dwindled, Eni has found 10bn barrels of resources in the past seven years and 300m in the first half of this year.
“They are doing exceptionally well with exploration. Not everyone can say that,” said one energy analyst.
The company expects output to rise more than 7 per cent this year and annual production growth of 3.5 per cent from 2014 to 2018. Goliat is one of more than a dozen new projects, which will contribute more than 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of output over that period.
Saudi Arabia withdraws overseas funds
Saudi Arabia has withdrawn tens of billions of dollars from global asset managers as the oil-rich kingdom seeks to cut its widening deficit and reduce exposure to volatile equities markets amid the sustained slump in oil prices.
The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency’s foreign reserves have slumped by nearly $73bn since oil prices started to decline last year as the kingdom keeps spending to sustain the economy and fund its military campaign in Yemen.
The central bank is also turning to domestic banks to finance a bond programme to offset the rapid decline in reserves.
This month, several managers were hit by a new wave of redemptions, which came on top of an initial round of withdrawals this year, people aware of the matter said.
“It was our Black Monday,” said one fund manager, referring to the large number of assets withdrawn by Saudi Arabia last week.
Institutions benefited from years of rising assets under management from oil-rich Gulf states, but are now feeling the pinch after oil prices collapsed last year.
Nigel Sillitoe, chief executive of financial services market intelligence company Insight Discovery, said fund managers estimate that Sama has pulled out $50bn-$70bn over the past six months.
“The big question is when will they come back, because managers have been really quite reliant on Sama for business in recent years,” he said.
Since the third quarter of 2014, Sama’s reserves held in foreign securities have declined by $71bn, accounting for almost all of the $72.8bn reduction in overall overseas assets.
Other industry executives estimate that Sama has withdrawn even more than $70bn from existing managers.
While some of this cash has been used to fund the deficit, these executives say the central bank is also seeking to reinvest into less risky, more liquid products.
“They are not comfortable with their exposure to global equities,” said another manager.
Fund managers with strong ties to Gulf sovereign wealth funds, such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Legal & General, have received redemption notices, according to people aware of the matter.
Some fund managers have seen several billions of dollars of withdrawals, or the equivalent of a fifth to a quarter of their Saudi assets under management, the people aware of the matter said.
Institutions such as State Street, Northern Trust and BNY Mellon have large amount of assets under management and are therefore also likely to have been hit hard by the Gulf governments’ cash grab, the people added.
“We are not that surprised,” said another fund manager. “Sama has been on high risk for a while and we were prepared for this.”
Sama has over the years built up a broad range of institutions handling its funds, including other names such as Aberdeen Asset Management, Fidelity, Invesco and Goldman Sachs.
BlackRock, which bankers describe as the manager handling the largest amount of Gulf funds, has already reported net outflows from Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Its second-quarter financial results reported a net outflow of $24.1bn from Emea, as opposed to an inflow of $17.7bn in the first quarter.
Market participants say the outflow is in part explained by redemptions from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf sovereign funds, such as Abu Dhabi.
BlackRock and other funds declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment. Sama did not respond to request for comment.