TheChek News Flow

- No binding offer as of today has been submitted for stake in Aeroporti di Roma

• Back on Tip TV talking about Glencore, Imperial Tobacco, Radius Health, Imagination Technology and Eros International

• Bank rows - part 2 - Lloyds settles with John Argent?

Qatar sells Vinci stake; what next for the sovereign wealth fund?

Posted: 06 Oct 2015 02:36 AM PDT

This evening it emerged Qatar is selling 1.1pc of French construction company Vinci to raise around EURO 380 million - and the move is causing quite the frisson in London markets.

Why? Well, the Qataris own big stakes in Glencore and Volkswagen, so market participants are speculating the gas rich gulf country will use the cash from the Vinci sale to finance (potential?) equity fundraisings from both these beleaguered companies.

Here is a little note from one excitable equity salesmen on the share sale:

It's not often that Soc Gen is sole books on two placings in one evening, but then again, it's not often that the EuroStoxx rips 3.3% in a straight line in a single trading session! That small point aside, this is arguably the most interesting trade that has come to market tonight. Soc Gen is selling c.6.46m shares of Vinci (a 1.1% stake) on behalf of Qatar Holdings. Yep, the same Qatar Holdings that has made the press lately thanks to its large positions in both Glencore and Volkswagen. The stock is being offered at €57.92 to market (a 1.45% discount to tonight's close), which optically looks a shade tight for 2 days volume in a stock that popped 3.6% today. Irrespective of how this deal is absorbed, I think the most interesting implication is where the proceeds will go? If the block clears at the bottom end of the range, then Qatar Holdings will be sitting on sale proceeds totalling €419m. I'm not going to speculate where that money is going to go, but I am in no doubt that the market will do that for me (as a thought - Glencore is still trading c.8% below the 125p strike on its recent equity raise). Perhaps more importantly, if the money doesn't get rotated back into another part of Qatar's portfolio, then what does it say about its outlook on the rest of its listed holdings?

Late last week, though, I also picked up some surprising mutterings about Qatar Holdings itself. However, I'm still in the process of investigating that story so until it stacks up I will keep it under wraps.

Whatever the reason for the Vinci share sale, I'm sure this evening's massive trade will trigger all sorts of speculation about what the Qataris might sell next...

UPDATE: So, the equity salesman has calmed down a bit. Here are his latest thoughts:

I did a bit of digging and can confirm that Vinci was the best performing stock amongst Qatar's top 10 holdings in the 3rd quarter. $419m is a relatively small amount of money in the grand scheme of the country's vast sovereign resources, so in the absence of new information, I would be inclined to read the sale as a bid to raise funds for reinvestment, rather than as a directional call on equities (recall that the fund has just opened a new office in New York with a commitment to invest $35bn over the next 5 years). If they have done this right, then fast money may well be spooked into covering shorts in its underperforming holdings tomorrow (i.e. Glencore and Volkswagen). Very smart trade if that was the intention. Why buy the dip when you can bluff hedge funds into doing it for you?

Proposal made last week was worth over 40 pounds a share

No final decision made, AB InBev may still walk away from bid

By Ruth David, Jonathan Browning and Matthew Campbell

(Bloomberg) --

SABMiller Plc rejected an informal takeover offer from Anheuser-Busch InBev NV that it considered too low, according to people familiar with the matter.

The initial proposal to the brewer of Peroni and Foster’s beer, made last week, was worth slightly over 40 pounds a share, while its executives and some shareholders regard a deal at closer to 45 pounds as representing a fair value, the people said, asking not to be identified as details of the negotiations aren’t public. A deal at 45 pounds per share would value SABMiller at about 73 billion pounds ($110 billion), and would be the largest merger this year.

London-based SABMiller communicated to AB InBev the terms at which it would be willing to negotiate after the rejection, one of the people said. No final decision has been made on a potential formal offer, and it’s possible the Belgian producer of Budweiser and Stella Artois may walk away from a deal, they said.

Representatives for AB InBev and SABMiller declined to comment.

SABMiller today released a surprise trading update nine days earlier than planned, in which it announced that beer volume had returned to growth in the second quarter, helped by Africa and Latin America --- a trend that could figure into a sweetened offer from AB InBev.

If successful, the combination would create a dominant global player in the brewing industry, which has been re-aligned through a decade of increasingly large mergers, and attract heavy scrutiny from antitrust regulators around the world. Controlled by a group of wealthy Brazilian investors led by Jorge Paulo Lemann, AB InBev is itself the result of deals to unite major Belgian, American, and Latin American brewers.

AB InBev had already reached out to Altria Group Inc., SABMiller’s biggest shareholder, before it announced plans to make an approach for its rival, people with knowledge of the matter said on Sept. 18. It’s lining up lenders including Bank of America Corp. and Banco Santander SA to arrange as much as $70 billion in financing for its takeover proposal, people familiar with the matter said last week.

Under U.K. takeover rules, AB InBev has until 5 p.m. on Oct. 14 to make an offer or announce it doesn’t intend to proceed. SABMiller may also ask regulators for an extension to that deadline.

We are adjusting estimates for the M&A independents (LAZ, EVR, GHL) ahead of 3Q earnings to reflect weaker Advisory fees across the group. While revenue backlogs remain reasonably healthy for the industry, Dealogic data implies that some anticipated closings for 3Q have been pushed out to 4Q, suggesting downside to cons. 3Q estimates. In addition, we have seen signs of deterioration in a number of economic indicators (e.g., CEO confidence, market cap); given the strong historical correlation between these indicators and M&A (announced) volumes, barring a strong recovery in Equity Markets / improved macro clarity, this suggests there remains some risk of continued pressure on M&A activity / revenues for the remainder of the year.

A formal evaluation can help a couple set goals, affirm what works and avoid entrenched conflict

Getting your annual performance review from your boss can be awkward and irritating. Can you imagine getting one from your spouse?

A growing number of marriage therapists and relationship researchers recommend that spouses and romantic partners complete periodic performance reviews. Couples typically wait too long to go to therapy for help, they say. By taking time to regularly evaluate and review their relationship together, partners can recognize what is and isn’t working—and identify goals for improvement—long before problems become entrenched and irresolvable.

“It’s the relationship equivalent of the six-month dental checkup,” says James Cordova, professor of psychology and director of the Center for Couples and Family Research at Clark University, in Worcester, Mass.

This isn’t an exercise to be taken lightly. Couples have to be careful, and constructive, when sharing their assessments. Fairness is crucial. And for couples in a relationship crisis, a performance review is unlikely to help.

Research shows that regular checkups improve relationships. In a study published in Sept., 2014, in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, Dr. Cordova and his colleagues gave 216 married couples questionnaires asking them to assess the biggest strengths and weaknesses in their relationship. Half the couples then saw a therapist for a checkup of two sessions to go over their evaluations and brainstorm a plan to address their concerns. The other half were told they were on a waiting list and didn’t discuss their assessments in a checkup.

The researchers, who followed up with the couples after one and two years, found those who had performed the checkup saw significant improvements in their relationship satisfaction, intimacy and feelings of acceptance by their partner, as well as a decrease in depressive symptoms, compared with the couples in the control group who didn’t perform a checkup. In addition, the couples who had the most problems in their marriage before the checkup saw the most improvement.

Kathlyn and Gay Hendricks, relationship coaches and authors of multiple books on marriage, who have been married 34 years and live in Ojai, Calif., schedule informal discussions with each other every Tuesday and Thursday, where they talk about problems or conflicts that have arisen in the past few days. In one recent discussion, Mr. Hendricks told his wife he has been feeling “left out” because she has been traveling so much for work lately, and she assured him that her schedule was going to lighten up soon.

“It gives us a safe, sure place to talk about our emotions,” says Ms. Hendricks, a psychologist, who is 67.

The spouses sit down for a more formal marriage review once every few months, but they are careful to focus on the relationship and not cast blame. They ask themselves, “How are we doing working together as a partnership?” and discuss areas where they need to improve. They examine their top three goals—for example, “working together as a team for our children,” “working together toward financial goals” or “being together so we both have a great sexual experience.” And they talk about how they can make their differences work for them. “It’s like taking the pulse of the relationship,” says Mr. Hendricks, 70, and a psychologist.

Dr. Cordova says while men often resist marriage therapy, they tend to appreciate marriage reviews, because they focus on a couple’s strengths and goals, as well as solving problems without blame.

But how do you review your marriage?

Remember that this is the person you love, and don’t be too critical. “You can’t approach it as you would a subordinate you supervise at work,” says Shannon Battle, a marriage and family therapist in Fayetteville, NC. “You can’t fire your spouse. This is ‘til death do us part.’ ”

Multiple research studies on people’s reactions to performance reviews show that when people feel they have been treated unjustly, they become hostile, But when they feel they have been treated fairly and respectfully, they accept the message of the review.

Rebecca Chory, a professor at Frostburg State University’s business school, in Maryland, who studies reactions to negative feedback, has identified six strategies for giving an effective performance review:

Address the behavior, not the person. Couch your comments with affirmation. “Do not put down your partner,” Dr. Chory says. She recommends saying, “I love you and want to be with you, but there are these behaviors…” or “When you did this, I felt this…”

Explain why you came to your conclusion. What contributed to your assessment? Provide a rationale.

Show that you are aware of the other person’s situation. Is your partner stressed, overworked, sick? Acknowledge the challenges he or she has been facing and how they may have contributed to the behavior you don’t like.

Be consistent over time. This doesn’t mean you can nag. But you should never criticize your spouse for something one time and laugh it off another. “A person needs to know what to expect, the rules of the game” says Dr. Chory.

Allow the other person to respond and provide input. The review should be a conversation, not a lecture. And a lot of misunderstandings can be cleared up when people talk openly.

Be clear about what you would like to change. What can be done to improve the situation?

As for the review itself, Dr. Cordova says you should always begin by identifying your strengths as a couple. “It is the positive foundation that keeps a relationship happy and healthy in the long run,” he says.

Then move on to discussing your concerns—but limit yourself to one or two. “You don’t want to kitchen-sink the thing,” Dr. Cordova says. And you don’t need to come up with a solution right away. Aim to understand your partner and to have your partner understand you.

If the review makes your relationship worse, or causes a lot of arguing, you may need relationship counseling. “If you are doing it well, you can tell because you will feel closer to each other and will each feel understood,” Dr. Cordova says.