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By the end of this century, areas of the Persian Gulf could be hit by waves of heat and humidity so severe that simply being outside for several hours could threaten human life, according to a study published Monday. Because of humanity’s contribution to climate change, the authors wrote, some population centers in the Middle East “are likely to experience temperature levels that are intolerable to humans.”

The dangerously muggy summer conditions predicted for places near the warm waters of the gulf could overwhelm the ability of the human body to reduce its temperature through sweating and ventilation. That threatens anyone without air-conditioning, including the poor, but also those who work outdoors in professions like agriculture and construction.

The paper, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, was written by Jeremy S. Pal of the department of civil engineering and environmental science at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Previous studies had suggested that such conditions might be reached within 200 years. But the new research, which depends on climate models that focus on regional topography and conditions, foresees a shorter timeline.

The researchers resolve the old argument over whether the source of summer misery is the heat or the humidity by saying that it is both. They rely on a method of measuring atmospheric conditions known as wet-bulb temperature, which, while less well known and understood than the standard method of measuring temperatures, describes the extent to which evaporation and ventilation can reduce an object’s temperature. A wet-bulb thermometer has, literally, a wet bulb: It is wrapped in a moistened cloth.

If the wet-bulb temperature is 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius), even a person drenched in sweat cannot cool off. Wet-bulb readings are not the same as the heat-index measurements used by the National Weather Service, Dr. Eltahir said. (This is the figure used by weather forecasters to say what a hot day “feels like” when the humidity is added.)

A wet-bulb measure of 95 degrees Fahrenheit, he estimated, would roughly translate to a heat-index reading of 165 degrees. Since even today’s heat waves cause premature deaths by the thousands, mainly affecting very young, elderly and infirm people, the more extreme conditions envisioned in the new paper “would probably be intolerable even for the fittest of humans, resulting in hyperthermia” after six hours of exposure.

Erich M. Fischer, a senior scientist at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at the science and technical university ETH Zurich who was not involved with the paper, explained the role of humidity.

“Anyone can experience the fact that humidity plays a crucial role in this in the sauna,” he said. “You can heat up a Finnish sauna up to 100 degrees Celsius since it is bone dry and the body efficiently cools down by excessive sweating even at ambient temperatures far higher than the body temperature. In a Turkish bath, on the other hand, with almost 100 percent relative humidity, you want to keep the temperatures well below 40 degrees Celsius since the body cannot get rid of the heat by sweating and starts to accumulate heat.”

As climate change causes temperatures to rise around the world, it should come as no surprise that the warm-water coasts in the Middle East could be the first to experience brutal combinations of heat and humidity. The conditions would not be constant, but spikes would become increasingly common.

A temperature that today would rank in the 95th percentile “becomes approximately a normal summer day” by the end of the century, the researchers said. Wet-bulb temperatures that even exceed the 95-degree threshold could be expected to occur once every 10 or 20 years, Dr. Eltahir said. “When they happen, they will be quite lethal,” he said.

The research raises the prospect of “severe consequences” for the hajj, the annual pilgrimage that draws roughly two million people to Mecca to pray outdoors from dawn to dusk. Should the hajj, which can occur at various times of the year, fall during summer’s height, “this necessary outdoor Muslim ritual is likely to become hazardous to human health,” the authors predicted.

If the nations of the world reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions, the authors concluded, the predicted disasters can be prevented: “Such efforts applied at the global scale would significantly reduce the severity of the projected impacts.”

An essay published with the new paper by Christoph Schär of the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich said the message of the new research is clear. “The threats to human health may be much more severe than previously thought, and may occur in the current century,” he wrote.

A heat wave in July of this year got very close to the 95-degree wet-bulb threshold described by the authors, reaching about 94.3 degrees. “It is credible that it will sometimes rise above 35 °C within this century,” he wrote.

In an interview via email, Dr. Fischer said that he found the research “robust and noteworthy,” though he said some uncertainties remain in the temperature measurements and the models. “Whether it exceeds or just gets close to the adaptability limit and for what period (which is probably quite relevant) may need further research,” he wrote.

Steven Sherwood, a researcher whose work in 2010 suggested that parts of the world could become uninhabitable within 200 years if fossil-fuel burning continued unabated, said he saw no reason to doubt the results of the new study. However, he added that “we really need to learn how to improve these models” to build confidence in the results.

Still, he said he was startled by the prediction that many cities on the Persian Gulf coast could be essentially uninhabitable by the end of the century for those without air-conditioning. “That is truly shocking,” he wrote in an email exchange, and added that he found it ironic, “given the region’s importance in providing fossil fuels.”

After European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's indisputably dovish signals about a bigger or broader quantitative easing programme last week, we just got another hint from the very top of the central bank.

Peter Praet, the ECB chief economist, has given an interview to AFP, in which he says that the central bank has "no taboos" in terms of its unconventional asset purchases.

The bloc is no longer in recession, but core inflation (which strips out volatile items like energy and food) is only around half of what it should be, and growth is modest at best.

The ECB QE programme only began in January, six years after the US and UK central banks began theirs. It's known as being much more institutionally conservative, but it's rapidly catching up in terms of what it's willing to do.

Here's a snippet from the interview:

"The governing council has given a very strong message: it is ready to draw the consequences of its assessment of the monetary policy stance," Praet said.

"The president has asked the teams to re-examine the toolbox and to have an in-depth 360-degrees reflection."

"We will assess this in December, notably in light of the new macroeconomic staff projections."

Several members of the ECB's board expressed scepticism about the QE programme before it began, but it seems like Draghi has either won them over or won the internal argument — either way, there hasn't been a word out of place from figures like Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann for quite some time.

Praet also indicated that the ECB is about to revise down its inflation forecasts in December too. Consumer prices had been expected to rise by 1.7% in 2017, but that's now looking too optimistic.

The last time Praet used the phrase "no taboo" was November 2014, just two months before the ECB surprised global markets with a bigger-than-expected QE programme. Now, it looks very much like he's warming up the handle on the bazooka again.

BP is the biggest riser on the FTSE 100 in early morning trading as shareholders give the thumbs up to the company's latest plans to cut costs, increase divestments and reduce capital expenditure - all to help sustain dividend payments.

BP's preferred measure of profitability, underlying replacement cost profit - a measure that is adjusted for "non-operating" items and fair value accounting effects - also came in comfortably ahead of forecasts in the third quarter at $1.8bn, despite continued pressure on the oil majors from weak prices. Brent is currently trading around $47 a barrel.

BP's shares are up 1.834 per cent at 391.5p at publication time, having opened up more than 2 per cent on Tuesday.

BP's group chief executive Bob Dudley and chief financial officer Brian Gilvary are spending today outlining to investors the company's latest plans to tackle weak oil prices.

In a statement earlier on Tuesday, BP announced it would further reduce its capital expenditure, expand its divestment programme and further cut costs (read more here).

BP said it is planning for balanced cash flows by 2017 at around $60 per barrel.

 

• Anesthetic unit could be sold as a whole or in parts

• Humanwell, Nhwa and Hengrui flagged as potential buyers

AstraZeneca [LON:AZN], the UK-based global pharmaceutical giant, is reviewing strategic options for its non-core businesses in China, two sources and two people claiming knowledge of the situation said.

Specifically, the company is in early stage talks with potential buyers for its anaesthetics drug unit in China, one source and the two people claiming knowledge said. Interested parties include both private equity funds and China-listed pharmaceutical companies, they added. Several funds in consortium have shown interest in acquiring the whole anaesthetic unit with a view to listing it in China in the future, said one of the sources.

The AZ anaesthetics operations in China include two drugs: diprivan (propofol) - an intravenous general anaesthetic used to induce and maintain general anaesthesia, intensive care sedation and conscious sedation for surgical and diagnostic procedures, and Naropin (ropivacaine) used for surgical anaesthesia and acute pain management.

According to AstraZeneca’s annual report, the local anaesthetic unit recorded global sales of USD 488m in 2014. The local and general anaesthetics business recorded approximately USD 600m global revenue in 2014 versus USD 750m in 2010.

AZ could sell the whole anaesthetic unit or just one of the drugs, one of the sources said. Diprivan on its own sold USD 200m globally, of which CNY 700m (USD 110m) came from China, according to a sector banker and one of the people claiming knowledge.

Given that the majority of revenues of diprivan come from China it makes more sense for a Chinese strategic bidder to acquire this unit to create centralized manufacturing synergies together with an existing similar portfolio, the sector banker suggested. The buyer could then dispose of any non-Chinese operations. A Chinese bidder may also buy the general anaesthetics unit and then if it is not interested in non-Chinese operations, dispose of these, an industry source said.

Potential strategic buyers could be Humanwell Healthcare [SHA: 600079], Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical [SHE: 002262] and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine [SHA: 600276], that are the top three players in the anaesthetic space, the second person claiming knowledge said.

A source at Humanwell said he is not aware of a sale process but noted that AZ’s distribution network in China is attractive. However, whether it will place a bid would all depend on the price. AZ’s anaesthetic drugs are Humanwell’s key generic drugs in China, so Humanwell will not be interested in the drugs itself but in the sales channels.

A source from Nhwa noted that it is interested to learn more about the potential sale of AZ’s anaesthetic unit.

AZ’s anti-infectives and gastro business are also non-core and it was suggested that these could be disposed of given their small market share and the fact that they are “outdated drugs”. Its anti-infectives business consists of Cubicin (daptomycin) for the treatment of gram-positive infections, including MSSA and MRS, and its gastrointestinal business includes two proton pump inhibitors (PPI) Losec (omeprazole) and Nexium (esomeprazole) for acid-related diseases.

AZ set out the strategy in 2013 to build up growth in five growth platforms – Brilinta, diabetes, respiratory, emerging markets and Japan. The five platforms have accounted for more than half of AZ’s global revenues based on financial performance in 3Q14, helping to navigate a period during which some of its established products are scheduled to lose exclusivity.

Oncology will become its sixth growth platform in the mid-term and with several potential submissions in 2015-2016, this unit is expected to contribute the largest proportion of pipeline-driven revenue growth and potential to grow to quarter of sales by 2023, according to a company announcement.

AZ’s China has experienced 19% growth in 1H15, according to its 1H15 results announcement. It has generated USD 12.36bn total revenue in 1H15.

AstraZeneca declined to comment.

Story

Mota Engil [ELI: EGL] informs that following the announcement made on 11 October, 2015, Mota Engil Africa [AMS: MEAFR] has announced the acceptance period for the tender offer taking place on the Dutch market, subject to local laws, with EUR 6.1235 per ordinary share is being offered from 27 October.

{http://web3.cmvm.pt/sdi/emitentes/docs/FR57434.pdf}

Dow -0.13% S&P-0.19% Nasdaq+0.06% Russell -0.56%

US Market start the week on weak note. energy sector fell to the bottom of the leaderboard at the start and remained there throughout the day. The daylong retreat caused the sector to narrow its October gain to 9.0% while crude oil fell 1.4% to $43.98/bbl. heavily-weighted financials (-0.3%) and technology (-0.3%) underperformed while the consumer discretionary sector (+0.8%) displayed relative strength thanks to a rebound in retail names. On the downside, the technology sector kept the market under pressure after spiking more than 3.0% on Friday. Volume were below average @ 850mil shares. Asian equity markets are decidedly negative, with regional risk-off flows in part driven by tensions in the South China Sea. Against a warning by the Chinese foreign ministry, US guided missile destroyer USS Lassen has reportedly approached the 12-mile territorial limit around Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands archipelago that Beijing contends to control. Obama administration however considers Beijing's "excessive claim" of sovereignty in those waters, and the US naval officials noted that it would one of several passages. China Foreign Ministry has since declared that "US warship has illegally entered waters near China island." Investors await the findings of China's 13th plenum that could contain an update on growth projections for 2016-2020 five year plan. Ahead of Friday's BOJ policy statement and economic outlook projections for GDP and CPI, a financial press report citing sources stated the BOJ is open to possibilities but more QE is not a given.

Nikkei -0.90% Hang Seng -0.19% Shanghai +0.14%

Eur$ 1.1050 CNY 6.3529 GBP 1.5345 RUB$63.47 WTI $43.49 (-1.11%)

S&P -0.06% EuroStoxx -0.29% Dax -0.35% SMI -0.56%

Macro :

- ECB’s Praet Sees No Taboos in Effort to Lift Inflation: AFP

- Fed Said to Strive for ‘Clear Signal’ on Interest Rates: WSJ

- Greece Creditors Refuse to Pay Next Loan Tranche: Sueddeutsche Z

Keep an eye on :

- AI FP : Air Liquide 3Q Rev. in Line With Estimates; Repeats 2015 Outlook

- AIXA GY : Aixtron 3Q Sales, Ebit Beat Ests.; Keeps Outlook

- AKZA NA : Akzo Nobel Sees 2016-2018 ROS of 9%-11%, ROI of 13%-16.5%

- ALFA SS : Alfa Laval Says Large Process Technology Orders ‘Likely’ in 4Q

- BAS GY : BASF 3Q Sales, Ebit Ex Items Miss Estimate; Cuts 2015 Outlook

- BP/ LN : BP Targets Balanced Cash Flows by 2017 at $60/bbl; Supports Div.

- 1COV GY : Covestro 3Q Adj. Ebitda Rises 45% y/y to EU471m

- DBK GY : DB Said to Explore Scaling Back Italian Retail Business: Reuters

- DIA SM : Dia 3Q Sales, Adj. Ebitda In Line With Ests.

- EDCL LI : Eurasia Drilling Sees 2016 Rev. $1.7b-$1.8b; Plans No 2015 Div.

- EGPW IM : Enel Plans to Buy Rest of Enel Green Power: El Confidencial

- GAS SM : Gas Natural Rejects Any Merger With Repsol, Expansion Reports

- GEBN VX : Geberit 3Q Results Below Consensus on Weaker Sales: Berenberg

- IBE SM : Spanish Utilities Have Little Risk in Upcoming Election: Goldman

- KPN NA : KPN 3Q Sales Match, Adj. Ebitda Beats Ests.; Keeps Outlook

- NOVN VX : Novartis 3Q Core Oper Income in Line, Sales Miss; Keeps Forecast

- TEC FP : Technip Wins Order for Brazil Libra Field Worth EU100m-EU250m

- TESB BB : Tessenderlo Raises Profit Forecast; 3Q Adj. Ebitda Rises 23%

*AKASTOR ASA RAISED TO HOLD AT NORDEA

*HELLA ADDED TO BANKHAUS LAMPE’S ALPHA LIST, OSRAM REMOVED

*YOOX NET-A-PORTER ADDED TO PAN-EUROPE BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN