FT : The extraordinary life and mysterious death of a carbon credits broker

The extraordinary life and mysterious death of a carbon credits broker
How an Italian fugitive used diplomatic immunity to work with Dubai royalty and Liberia’s fallen hero

Late last year, Florentine prosecutors finally identified a fugitive by the bloated corpse washed up months before on a beach near Dubai, naked and with most of its skin missing.

But an official DNA match to Samuele Landi, formerly the boss of one of Italy’s top telecom companies, only deepened the mystery of his life.

Landi was a telecoms entrepreneur turned fraudster and fugitive who burned a trail from Italy to west Africa to the Middle East over the course of a decade.

The story of his life is colourful and complicated — from a small-time dealmaker with an apparent sideline in phone sex chatrooms, to diplomat and alleged acquaintance of sheikhs and presidents. Even as he managed to avoid being brought to justice by international authorities, he worked on a plan to sell carbon credits to Emirati royalty.

But after Landi’s last attempt at a redemption trade went south, he decided to pursue his fortunes on the high seas. He planned to live the rest of his days in international waters, with a quixotic dream of mining bitcoin by solar power on a flotilla held together with giant rubber bands.

His apparent death at sea helps shine a light on the grey areas in international law and trade where it is possible for unorthodox characters to pursue lucrative opportunities and ideals of personal freedom, with little regard for national laws.

On the seafront of Monrovia, Liberia’s capital, is a crumbling villa, built on sand and now sinking fast, the sea seeping further into its cracked concrete foundations with every turn of the tide. It was built by Landi around the time of the global financial crisis. 

I visited hoping it might hold clues as to how this maverick executive had come to secure his status as one of West Africa’s top diplomats in the Middle East.

But “now is no good”, said a skinny man in lime-coloured trousers, who appeared at the villa holding a pair of keys. Two more men emerged from behind the house, one carrying a sizeable kitchen knife and a truncheon. They wanted to know why I was trying to “break in” to a dead man’s flooded house at dusk.

The guards had been watching the property since Landi’s disappearance. Once put at ease, they wanted to understand who he was, and what he did for Liberia. They led the way inside, through garish yellow and turquoise rooms. Salt water splashed through a gaping hole in the front room at high tide. Everywhere the ceiling was starting to fall in. Painted lobster shells, grapes and slices of lemon danced on the terracotta tiles in the kitchen.

In the late 2000s, Landi’s businesses had been doing a roaring trade. Born into a wealthy family in Arezzo, a hilltop town in Tuscany, he had made his early fortunes with Plugit, which sold dial-up internet with a side-hustle in erotic chat rooms. In his spare time, he competed in off-road car races across Africa.

In 2004 the company changed its name to Eutelia following the acquisition of a rival, with Landi serving variously as chief executive and director.

In Italy, Eutelia laid fibre-optic cables and became one its largest telecoms operators. But its heyday was shortlived. By 2008, Italian authorities were investigating Eutelia’s accounting practices.

Prosecutors would later say that Landi helped orchestrate the sale of Eutelia’s failing IT business to a subsidiary, Agile, in June 2009, after piling it with debt. He was also alleged to have helped falsify invoices and costs worth €2.4mn in the preceding years, contributing to Eutelia’s later demise. 

In Eutelia’s annual accounts from the time and the accompanying court documents, one country is mentioned repeatedly. Prosecutors said millions were lost in a Liberian “accounting desert”, including for the purchase of a plane. Liberia is also where Eutelia allegedly ran part of an operation to inflate its telephone traffic, in exchange for fees that would have been worth more than €1mn from another operator. 

Landi’s businesses used unorthodox means to get callers to stay on the line in his Liberian operations. At a call centre not far from the site of the Monrovian villa, hundreds of young women once worked the phones in three shift patterns.

The average salary was around $50 a week, but the longer they could keep the men phoning in, the more they got paid, according to Charles Konneh, who managed “Liberia Call Centre Inbound”. Landi was the ultimate boss of the operation, flying in with his family for a visit and staying at the five-star Cape hotel on the other side of town. 

James Harding Giahyue, editor of The DayLight newspaper, sent a young female friend to work at the call centre, thinking he had found her a respectable job. “It was a sex business, but more of a telecoms business,” he said. “It was raw, the men could say anything.” (Konneh denied the conversations were sexual.)

Landi made his last reported public appearance in Italy in November 2009, when he had a confrontation with laid-off employees at his office buildings in Rome. It was also the start of a legal battle lasting well over a decade, resulting in a prison sentence for eight years that he never served.

By the summer of 2010, Eutelia and Agile were officially bankrupt. The Monrovia call centre shut down abruptly around the same time, Konneh says. He dumped its computers in the villa, from where he says they were stolen. By that time, Landi had fled to Dubai. He was declared a fugitive by the Italian court system — and kept a low profile for eight years. 

But Landi’s involvement with Liberia did not end there.

The country’s economy bears the scars of 14 years of brutal civil war that had ended in 2003. Offshore oilfield exploration has yet to yield a commercial success and in 2018, when former international football star George Weah was elected president, the country still lacked reliable roads and a functional health system.

Weah needed to attract foreign investment. His best shot? The United Arab Emirates, which wanted to splash its oil winnings to gain influence in Africa. The UAE was the last place Weah had played professionally before retirement. 

Weah also had close ties to Italy. The first and only African winner of Fifa’s World Player of the Year award, Weah had left a mark at AC Milan, where he played in the 1990s.

By 2018, Landi was building a digital security career in Dubai. Fingers in Italian, Emirati and Liberian business circles meant he was well placed to play the role of middleman in the African country’s plans to attract investment. 

There was one problem. The UAE had begun taking steps to finalise an extradition treaty with Italy — while Landi was still a wanted man at home.

Landi managed to obtain a Liberian diplomatic passport, eventually with the title of consul general to Dubai, according to two Liberian diplomats. The appointment was with Weah’s backing, they said. Under Liberia’s constitution, all consul nominations must be approved by the president. This gave the fugitive businessman a degree of diplomatic immunity. 

At first the relationship was mutually beneficial. Landi became a “lobbier for the country as a whole”, said a diplomat who worked with Landi. He was in charge of licensing the use of Liberia’s flag to ships based in the Middle East and parts of the Mediterranean, including Greece and Turkey.

Liberia is one of the world’s most popular flags of convenience, offering ship owners quick and cheap access to registration in a country that may offer more discretion than their own. 

Landi was the “quiet” and “very humble” man who was always in town to make the life of presidential envoys in Dubai easier, said Trokon Kpui, a minister under Weah.

And he got results. The UAE agreed to pay for a $20mn solar-powered hospital, sports facilities and convoys of military trucks for Liberia. Landi negotiated this type of deal on behalf of Weah’s government, including the hospital, said George Nixon Kingsley, a friend of Landi’s in Liberia.

Kpui, however, said that this type of deal was “not really done through Landi,” but was instead negotiated thanks to Weah’s “personal relationship” with the UAE and with its leadership.

Commenting on Landi’s relationship to Weah, he said: “While it’s true Landi might have served in that [consul] position . . . he brought personally to George Weah nothing.”

A person who represents Weah did not provide a comment.

The passport seemed to keep Landi safe. Although Italy issued a request for arrest and extradition to Emirati authorities for Landi in April 2019, he was able to continue living in Dubai. The Italian foreign ministry told the FT it only “ascertained” that Landi held a Liberian passport more than two years later.

At the same time, Landi and his wife Laura Gallorini were also cultivating their own network locally. Landi started working as an adviser to a company owned by Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook al-Maktoum, a Dubai royal and an energy investor with a special focus on West Africa. 

In 2018, Landi had become the sole shareholder of Liberia Energy Green, a renewable energy distributor, incorporation documents show. The following year he appeared in a photo taken to confirm that the Abu Dhabi state-backed renewable energy company Masdar would grant $4mn to Liberia alongside the UAE government and a UN agency. Masdar said that Landi had attended in his capacity as consul general for Liberia.

Landi also worked for Dubai-based cyber security company Kryptotel, which said it produced the first “crypto phone” in the Middle East and Africa, offering foreign governments military-grade encryption. 

He proclaimed his innocence to anyone who would listen, including in an appearance by video call on a tablet held by his lawyer Amedeo di Segni at a press conference called in Arezzo’s town square in September 2019. 

“This guy had a lot of imagination,” without being “necessarily very intelligent”, says Jan de Smet, an independent Dutch investigator who researched Landi’s life as part of his work on deforestation and corruption.

“He had this charisma thing over him and of course the aura of the adventurer, the successful adventurer . . . which was attractive maybe.”

Landi’s Liberian passport had been his shield. But its guarantee began to look less certain, prompting his most dramatic move yet.

After a Liberian national was arrested and later convicted of money laundering and wire fraud in the US in April 2022, Liberian embassies received orders to review the allocation of diplomatic passports and to deny honorary positions to those under criminal investigation.

Liberian authorities threatened to confiscate Landi’s passport, the diplomat who worked with Landi said, leaving him vulnerable again to arrest and extradition.

Growing increasingly desperate, Landi moved in December 2022 on to a second-hand barge off the coast of Dubai in what he described as international waters. He started working from there, joking that people would have to swim to reach the consulate, whose office building he shut down. 

Just a few weeks in, a storm struck, leaving Landi and his crew surviving off fish for nearly a month. They later laughed at the incident, calling the barge “Purring Island” after the cats who had survived with them. 

Weah’s foreign minister Dee-Maxwell Saah Kemayah was less amused, and accused Landi of underperforming on the less glamorous sides of his diplomatic job. He was, for instance, unable to negotiate on behalf of Liberian workers who had overstayed their visas in Dubai, as he was too nervous to visit the police station in person.

His request to be promoted to ambassador was vetoed by the UAE because of concerns about his court cases in Italy and the fact he remained an Italian citizen, the two diplomats said. 

Working to keep his options open on dry land, he attempted to tap other powerful contacts in Dubai.

In early 2023, Landi worked on a deal that would have given Emirati royal Maktoum’s company Blue Carbon exclusive rights to generate and sell carbon credits on about 1mn hectares of Liberian land. Blue Carbon would receive 70 per cent of the value of the credits, according to a draft proposal drawn up in July 2023.

Around the time the proposal was finalised, Landi received fresh reassurances about his passport, one diplomat who worked with Landi said.

Blue Carbon told the FT in a statement that it had not had any involvement in or influence over “the diplomatic status or the personal affairs of Mr. Landi”. His advice to the company had focused on block chain verification of environmental assets.

“Any of Mr. Landi’s connections in regard to Liberia, were independent to and not tied to any discussions of potential opportunities between Blue Carbon and the Liberian Government,” it said.

Landi’s time living on a barge apparently kindled an interest in seasteading, or making a life in international waters.

He had helped build a blockchain ledger for the self-proclaimed micronation of Liberland, a libertarian settlement based on a land-bank between Croatia and Serbia, and became friendly with its “president” the Czech politician Vít Jedlička.

In November 2023 Jedlička visited Landi’s floating embassy. The waters were choppy and two fishermen and a yacht salesman had refused to sail him there. In the end, he had hitched a ride on the speedboat that kept the barge supplied with fruit and vegetables.

As waves buffeted the tiny craft, Jedlička, with a blond beard cut into a neat goatee, bumped about on an uncomfortable bench, trying to find a spot where his baby-blue linen jacket could avoid being splashed. After about an hour, Landi hauled a damp Jedlička up the makeshift ladder on to the barge.

The 72m by 20m vessel was pocked with orange rust damage. But Landi felt he was well set up there. For much of the year he had been using a Starlink satellite connection to juggle his diplomatic roles in Dubai and Liberia. Landi had a desalination plant for water and solar panels for energy, he separately told Jedlička in an amateur video interview.

Landi’s long-term plan was to move a larger barge out through the Gulf of Oman and thousands of miles south through the Indian Ocean closer to the Saya de Malha, a sandbank where he would use giant rubber bands to tie a network of barges together, creating a floating city.

He set out these plans to Oswald Horowitz, a freelance documentary maker who spent time with Landi on his barge that year to make a feature about his life.

Jedlička, who hoped this would act as “a back-up territory in case of any trouble in Europe”, said Landi promised to fly the flag of Liberland. The flotilla would use solar energy to mine bitcoin tax-free and sell carbon credits. 

The two men talked throughout the afternoon, high on what Jedlička called the “sex appeal” of creating their own systems of government at sea, far outside the reaches of the EU’s creeping bureaucracy and even of Dubai’s notoriously light-touch approach to taxes.

Meanwhile, two crew members worked underwater to weld shut holes in air tanks that the storm earlier in the year had caused. Jedlička said his goodbyes, knowing that Landi had stayed longer than planned on a boat that was increasingly leaky. 


In late 2023, Weah’s government lost a tight general election and Landi’s access to a passport was threatened again.

Sara Beysolow Nyanti, Liberia’s new foreign minister, launched a crusade shortly after taking office to revoke improperly distributed diplomatic passports. Nyanti refused to allow even her own security staff to use diplomatic passports for fast track through airports, a diplomat and a former lawmaker said. People close to Nyanti did not provide a comment.

To make matters worse, the Blue Carbon deal did not move forward. The FT and other outlets reported at the end of 2023 that communities who believed the land belonged to them had not been properly consulted on the deal. Blue Carbon denied failing to consult with communities.

“Carbon credits have been cursed around here,” said Wilson Tarpeh, who was head of the Environmental Protection Agency at the time of the deal and flew out to meet Landi in Dubai to discuss it. “Anyone who has tried to do them round here gets beaten up.”

Tarpeh said he advised against the deal but was overruled by Weah’s top brass. When we met in Monrovia’s business district, Tarpeh jabbed at an oversized calculator on his desk to show me the many millions of tonnes of carbon wealth that could be protected in Liberia’s interior.

But Rudolph Merab, head of Liberia’s Forestry Development Authority, told me that, as a result of the lack of interest from western buyers, “we have not seen one cent from the carbon we are absorbing from the forests”. He has been trying to find new buyers for the credits but says he has recently been offered only $1 a tonne, well below the market price.

Merab’s logging company at the time was named in former dictator Charles Taylor’s war crimes trial as an alleged conduit for cash to arm and direct Sierra Leone’s civil war. Merab denies that he or the company supported the war. He said: “I would never support a president fighting war. Nothing I did was hidden from anybody.”

In February 2024, soon after the collapse of the deal and the change of government, storms whipped the coast of Dubai.

Landi’s daughter Saahra told Horowitz, the documentary maker, that her father’s barge had been split in two, moments after she had spoken to him by video.

A body found by coastguards at Umm al Quwain up the coast from Dubai was registered as Landi, despite being “totally unrecognisable” due to missing skin, according to a person who has seen the initial autopsy report. 

UAE police were slow to respond. A death certificate was issued on May 9, months after the death it declared on February 7, Italy’s foreign affairs ministry said. Italy’s request for a DNA test was turned down by the UAE following opposition by Landi’s wife Laura, it added.

The UAE foreign ministry and Dubai’s government did not respond to a request for comment.

Two diplomats told me that Landi’s wife, Laura, declined to hand in Landi’s passport and stopped returning calls. The embassy staff were not invited to any funeral, while Laura did not confirm whether he had died, even to Landi’s driver, they said. 

The FT was unable to reach Laura directly for comment.

Those closest to Landi were struggling last year to process events, weighing up all the potential reasons Landi had for choosing to disappear, alongside those that his enemies might have for wishing he’d disappear.

Landi had faked his own death twice before and used the storm as an opportunity to do this for a third time, one of the diplomats alleged.

“I have so many doubts that he is actually dead,” Saahra told Italy’s state-owned broadcaster Rai in May. After seeing the body, Saahra’s brother said “it wasn’t him”, she told the TV broadcast.

Amedeo di Segni, the lawyer who said he represented Landi until last year, told the FT by email that he had “serious doubts about whether Samuele Landi is truly gone.”

He later said the FT’s version of events contained “a wealth of correct information, but some of it is completely incorrect, some is very incomplete and some essential procedural details are missing”. He declined to clarify further without payment.

But for the libertarians who followed Landi’s journeys, there was a very simple explanation for his disappearance: a cavalier attitude to safety at sea.

Landi’s barge “was rusting three times faster than it should have been, it was just bad luck with a bad product from China”, said Jedlička, the Liberland president. 

Finally, late last year, the UAE agreed to send the body for forensic analysis. Italy’s foreign affairs ministry said a DNA test ordered by the Florence Public Prosecutor’s Office confirmed that the body was Landi’s.

Segni told me he had been informed by Florence’s attorney-general that the body was Landi’s — but that an autopsy report on cause of death had yet to be filed. 

“That’s deep,” regulator Wilson Tarpeh said, when I asked whether there was any way Landi could still be alive. “Maybe he went through some metamorphosis, when you resurface somewhere with a new identity.”

Now he thought about it, he was not sure if he remembered meeting Landi after all. 

FT : Middle East tensions could trigger food price shock, warns fertiliser boss

Middle East tensions could trigger food price shock, warns fertiliser boss
Fertiliser prices have been ‘extremely volatile’ in the past two weeks, says CEO of leading crop nutrients group Yara

The head of one of the world’s largest fertiliser companies has warned that heightened tensions in the Middle East could trigger a fresh food price shock by straining global supply chains for crop nutrients and energy.

Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Norwegian group Yara, said fertiliser groups and customers were “monitoring closely” the risks around the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 per cent of the world’s urea and 20 per cent of global LNG flows, warning that any disruption could ripple through global food production.

Fertiliser markets have “been extremely volatile in the last two weeks, and it shows how connected everything is”, he told the Financial Times.

Holsether pointed to the recent shutdown of Israeli gasfields, which disrupted fertiliser production in Egypt, as a sign of how quickly regional tensions can ripple through supply chains.

Tensions between Iran and Israel escalated sharply this month pushing up Brent crude above $80 per barrel before falling back to the high $60s after a ceasefire was brokered earlier this week.

Industry analysts have warned that more than a fifth of the world’s urea output had stopped due to conflict and supply disruptions. “Iran has shut all ammonia plants for security reasons, while Egypt remains offline due to halted Israeli gas flows,” said Sylvia Traganida, senior ammonia editor at consultancy ICIS. 

Consultancy CRU warned Israel’s strikes on Iran and the retaliatory attacks “fed into major disruption to nitrogen markets” within a few days of the events and posed “ongoing threats to phosphate, potash and sulphur supply from the region”. 

Almost a third of urea exports, 44 per cent of sulphur exports and nearly a fifth of ammonia exports move through or are produced in countries west of the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from CRU. 

“The food system is fragile,” said Holsether. “If [energy prices] stay high over time, that will also spill into the food system, like it did in 2021 and into 2022 as well with the outbreak of the war [in Ukraine].” 

The last major disruption to fertiliser markets came in 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent natural gas prices soaring and triggered a sharp rise in fertiliser costs, contributing to a global food price crisis.

Since then, crop nutrient prices had eased as the natural gas market had declined, but Europe’s fertiliser industry remained under pressure as Russian imports took a bigger share of the market, Holsether said, as he returned from his first visit to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. 

While sanctions have curbed exports of Russian natural gas, a critical input in nitrogen fertiliser, food and crop nutrients have remained exempt, allowing Moscow to redirect its gas through fertiliser production. 

Holesther welcomed the EU’s recent move to impose tariffs on Russian fertiliser but called it overdue. He said Europe needed to avoid “repeating mistakes” made in energy imports with food. 

The Yara chief accused Moscow of weaponising food and fertiliser, both by expanding fertiliser exports to increase global dependency on its supply and by targeting Ukraine’s civilian agriculture in a campaign to destroy the country’s role as one of the world’s agricultural powerhouses.

“There’s the military fight, but there’s also a fight where food is being used as a weapon,” Holsether said, adding that more than 20 per cent of Ukraine’s farmland was now mined, occupied or unusable.

Before the war, Ukraine’s food exports, which included up to 50mn tonnes of cereals, fed about 400mn people a year. 

The country’s grain and oilseed production fell from 78mn tonnes in 2023 to 72.9mn tonnes this year, Holsether said, reflecting the mounting impact of war on the country’s agricultural output.

FT : Israel 1967, Iran 2025: two countries on the threshold of a nuclear bomb

Israel 1967, Iran 2025: two countries on the threshold of a nuclear bomb
Facing an existential threat in the 1960s, Israel hastily assembled an atomic device. What will Iran choose to do?

A secret nuclear programme deep underground, shielded from American eyes, slowly revealing the secrets of the atom — and disgorging the fuel for an atomic bomb. Enemies closing in, the drumbeats of war growing louder.

And then, on the eve of conflict, a hasty decision to pull together at least one rudimentary nuclear device. If the nation faced annihilation, maybe an atomic explosion — its mushroom cloud seen by the world — could save it?

This was Israel in 1967, when historians now understand that the Jewish state first inched to the edge of the nuclear threshold. It stopped short of the last resort, a demonstration test of a crude bomb, which its unexpected victory in the six day war rendered unnecessary.

But the story is not so different from that of Iran in the months leading up to what US President Donald Trump has now dubbed the 12-day war — watching Israel debilitate the Islamic Republic’s allies, from Hizbollah in Lebanon to devastating the Syrian military after Islamist rebels toppled the Assad regime.

Now, with Israel threatening more violence if Iran rebuilds its enrichment capacity, the Islamic Republic faces the same question Israel had to confront in 1967: to create a measure of final deterrence by sprinting to a nuclear weapon, or step back from the brink?


“Iran is now in the midst of a long-running, serious internal debate. It’s the do-or-die moment,” said Vali Nasr, former senior adviser to the US state department and author of Iran’s Grand Strategy. “It’s also paradoxical that Israel is pushing Iran to make that same decision that they made.”

The six day war changed the course of the Middle East, with Israel’s surprise victory over its larger neighbours and the capture and occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. It also transformed a young Israel, and its ambiguous relationship with weapons of mass destruction, into a unique — if completely opaque — nuclear power, its dozens of devices both undeclared and undisputed.

The west’s toleration of Israel’s secret arsenal, estimated by the Federation of American Scientists at just under 100 sophisticated weapons, is seen in the Middle East as a symbol of its hypocrisy, allowing an ally to flout non-proliferation norms while punishing Iran, which has in many respects complied with its treaty obligations.

But Israel’s unique status is not just the result of its strategic alliance with the US. It was the product of a different historical period, when the Jewish state was younger and weaker, its enemies stronger and determined to wipe it off the map. The secret 1969 deal with the US, which allowed Israel to keep its nuclear weapons undeclared, reflected how Israeli leaders turned their country’s precarious position — so soon after the Holocaust — into an extraordinary exemption no other state received.

If Iran were to lurch towards a nuclear weapon now, however, it would present world powers with an impossible choice — accept a new, brash entrant to the nuclear club, tempting others to follow suit, or seek to punish it like North Korea.

The third option, to reap the political benefits of stepping back from the nuclear threshold, remains on the table.

Avner Cohen, a leading historian of Israel’s nuclear secrets, said the Middle East had been brought to this moment by Iran’s emulation of a young Israel: operating a nuclear programme that was partly open, partly clandestine, “having a closer and closer proximity to the bomb” but delaying any final decision until absolutely necessary.

“Iran wanted very much to be another Israel, to follow in Israel’s path,” said Cohen, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. He pointed to how Israel built up broad expertise that would enable the creation of a nuclear device at a time of crisis — without ever having explicitly chosen that path.

“Iran wanted, and in many ways were imitating, the opaque Israeli modus operandi but their political circumstances were different — and more adversarial,” he said, referring to Israel’s 1969 deal with the US to keep its arsenal secret.

“In the end, the world has been much more friendly to Israel, and less forgiving of the Iranians.”

It took four and a half decades for Israel and Iran’s regional rivalry to boil into direct conflict, during which Iran’s leaders embedded the destruction of the “Zionist entity” deep into the Republic’s political discourse.

For Israel, Iran’s growing military prowess since the turn of the century, nuclear programme and well-funded proxies were increasingly viewed as an existential threat.

For Iran, Israel emerged more suddenly as a threat on an existential level: Israeli leaders speak openly about regime change in Tehran, and its military has already demonstrated it can wreak damage across all of Iran at will.

Unlike Israel, which succeeded in hiding its nuclear ambitions even from close allies, Iran has inched closer to the technical capabilities of a bomb after signing the non-proliferation treaty and enduring onerous inspections while swearing off using nuclear weapons — the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei branded their use haram in the early 2000s.

And until Iran and the US attacked Iran’s nuclear programme, western intelligence assessments chimed with the UN’s view that Iran had not formally decided to pursue a nuclear weapon.

For Israel, impending conflict in 1967 put paid to any doubts among policymakers. Historical records show Prime Minister Levi Eshkol musing to colleagues about “a certain weapon”, while military chief Yitzhak Rabin worried about a surprise attack on Israel’s only nuclear reactor, which he warned had “a lack of international legitimacy”.

In Iran last year, as conflict with Israel was brewing, policymakers began issuing ambiguous warnings that Tehran could consider changing its nuclear doctrine.

Months after Israel and Iran’s first volley of strikes in April 2024, Kamal Kharrazi, foreign affairs adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told the Financial Times that “we are not for building nuclear weapons” but that if Iran faced an existential threat, “naturally we [would] have to change our doctrine”.

In February last year, the former chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali-Akbar Salehi, had said that Iran’s sprawling nuclear research programme had resulted in vast technical expertise.

“What does a car need? It needs a chassis, an engine, a steering wheel, a gearbox,” he said when asked whether Iran could build a nuclear weapon. “You’re asking if we’ve made the gearbox, I say yes. Have we made the engine? Yes, but each one serves its own purpose.”

In the lead-up to Israel’s 1967 war, research carried out by various parts of the government had resulted in the knowledge and even the fuel needed for a nuclear device, but there is no publicly available evidence that its leaders had explicitly ordered the construction of a bomb until shortly before the conflict.

On Iran’s part, as conflict with Israel grew more likely in recent months, there was one major shift: it doubled its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity — far beyond what is needed for nuclear energy — to about 400kg.

That stockpile could in theory be quickly enriched to weapons grade. But any implosion device Iran could fit it into would be a crude, if effective, prototype — far from a sophisticated weapon.

In Israel, it was just such a prototype that nuclear scientists hastily assembled and handed over to soldiers in 1967, according to research by Cohen, including an interview with the military official in charge of what became known as “The Samson Option”.

That product emerged from research and subterfuge, including at the Negev Nuclear Research Center at Dimona in the late 1950s, where Israel built a secret underground facility for processing plutonium.

Around that time, Israel’s security concerns did not involve Iran. The Shah, an ally of Washington, had received a nuclear reactor in 1967 as a gift from the US under an Eisenhower-era programme, Atoms For Peace. A year later he signed the NPT.

By the time of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when the Shah was toppled, Iran’s nuclear research was rudimentary, and after the revolution most nuclear physicists left the country.

Around the same time, the US assembled a group of scientists to study two flashes picked up in 1979 by an ageing satellite. A few months later, President Jimmy Carter wrote in his diary that “we have a growing belief among our scientists that the Israelis did indeed conduct a nuclear test explosion in the ocean near the southern end of Africa”.

Around then, Israel made a policy decision that remained unchanged, said Uzi Arad, former research director at Israel’s spy agency Mossad. That was the Begin Doctrine: if a belligerent neighbour’s nuclear knowledge was deemed a threat, Israeli war planes would attack.

“The nucleus of Israel’s approach to proliferation has always been this: first, if and when a nuclear programme becomes a threat to Israel . . . it would exhaust all other means to stopping it,” he said. “Then, it would fall back on an air strike.”

So in 1981, Israel attacked a nuclear reactor in Iraq. In 2007, it hit a North Korean-supplied secret reactor under construction in Syria. “And now you have in 2025 Israeli warplanes flying over Natanz and Fordow and Isfahan [in Iran],” he said.

That partly shaped Iran’s own nuclear posture, which ebbed and flowed with geopolitics. In the 1980s, after its war with Iraq, Iran began exploring a nuclear programme to prevent another conflict with its neighbour, said Nasr, but the first Gulf war rendered this threat irrelevant.

A Pakistani nuclear scientist confessed in 2004 to selling older centrifuge technology to Iran in the 1990s, seen by many as the genesis of Iran’s enrichment experiments. And in 2003, after watching the US invade Iraq in the hunt for weapons of mass destruction, Iran declared and shelved a secret programme, called Amad, which the UN watchdog said had been researching — but not building — nuclear weapons.

The focus on enrichment remained, said Nasr. “The Iranians saw an interest in actually, for a very long period of time, in using their programme as a way to bring the US to the table and get the US to agree to lift sanctions,” he said. “They understood there’s no other issue that will bring the US to negotiations.”

Its leaders have constantly maintained Iran was exercising its legal right as a signatory of the non proliferation treaty to have a peaceful nuclear energy programme, and have allowed inspectors into declared facilities, even for surprise visits.

But they also built new, secret enrichment facilities in Natanz, revealed by whistleblowers in 2002, and then at Fordow, a site discovered by western intelligence agencies in 2008. Inspectors from the UN nuclear watchdog were subsequently allowed to visit, including in the days just before Israel launched its surprise attack.

Now those facilities have been damaged, alongside much of Iran’s conventional deterrence. Proxy militias that surrounded Israel with a “ring of fire” have been significantly weakened. Many missile launchers and aerial defences have been destroyed. That leaves Iran with a dilemma as it sits on the edge of becoming a nuclear-armed power.

On building a weapon, “Iran is still doing the cost-benefit analysis,” said Nasr, referring to negotiations with the Europeans and the US. “And right now, perhaps the debate has swung much more in the direction of those who say just do the bomb.

“But the door is not completely shut. The only way you’re going to divert the trajectory that Iran is on is to put a deal on the table that is compelling enough and is resilient enough to influence this debate in Iran.”

FT : Nvidia insiders cash out $1bn worth of shares

Nvidia insiders cash out $1bn worth of shares
Chief executive Jensen Huang leads wave of insider selling as AI demand boosts stock to record high

Nvidia insiders have sold more than $1bn of the company’s stock over the past 12 months including a recent surge in trading as they cash in on investors’ enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.

More than $500mn of the share sales took place this month as the California-based chips designer’s share price climbed to a record high.

Investors have piled back into the stock, making it the world’s most valuable company as they bet on huge demand for chips to power AI applications. The price rise comes after a turbulent year in which Nvidia was knocked by US-China trade tensions and Chinese AI breakthroughs that threated demand for its products.

Jensen Huang, Nvidia chief executive, started selling shares this week for the first time since September.

Nvidia said all of Huang’s sales were part of a pre-arranged trading plan, agreed in March, that set the prices and dates at which sales would be triggered. Huang still retains the vast majority of his shares in Nvidia.

“When the stock [dropped] in the first quarter, he did not sell, [which was] was really smart,” said Ben Silverman, vice-president of research at VerityData.

“[Huang] waited for the stock to return to levels that he felt more comfortable selling at,” Silverman added.


VerityData, which tracks insider sales based on regulatory filings, said in a report that Nvidia’s share price bump above $150 appears to have triggered Huang’s sales.

Huang started selling just after a mandated 90-day cooling-off period for his sales plan expired. Directors and senior executives often agree these plans to avoid insider trading allegations.

Under the plan, Huang can sell as many as 6mn shares before the end of this year. At the current share price, that leaves Huang on track to earn more than $900mn.

Huang’s net worth is estimated at $138bn, according to Forbes.

Nvidia’s market capitalisation has quadrupled to $3.8tn in the space of a few years as companies and nation states pour billions of dollars into the infrastructure behind AI.

A number of other top Nvidia figures are also reaping a windfall from the company’s growth.

These include longtime board member Mark Stevens, a former managing partner at Sequoia Capital who was one of the earliest investors in Nvidia. On 2 June, he announced he would sell up to 4mn shares, currently valued at $550mn, and has since sold $288mn of them.

Nvidia’s executive vice-president of worldwide field operations, Jay Puri — a two-decade veteran of the company who has deputised for Huang on trips to China to meet officials — sold shares worth about $25mn on Wednesday.

Two other board members, Tench Coxe and Brooke Seawell, have moved to sell, with Coxe offloading around $143mn on June 9 and Seawell around $48mn this month.

Coxe, a former managing director of Sutter Hill Ventures, is another longtime board member who has been at the company since its early days. Huang co-founded the company in 1993 as a video game graphics card company in a Denny’s restaurant in San Jose.

Seawell, who joined the board in 1997, is a partner at venture firm New Enterprise Associates and a former executive at chip design software company Synopsys.

Nvidia’s shares have rebounded in recent weeks, with its market capitalisation regaining about $1.5tn since its lowest point in April. The stock took a hit following breakthroughs by China’s DeepSeek and new US export controls on AI chips destined for China.

FT : Why is the right so fascinated with fantasy literature?

Why is the right so fascinated with fantasy literature?
Society inevitably structures our choices but the resulting frustration feeds a yearning for magical rings

Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni founded a conservative political conference named for a hero of a 1979 bestselling fantasy novel, used to cosplay as a hobbit, and in 2023 had a museum exhibition commissioned about JRR Tolkien. Peter Thiel, the Trump-supporting and democracy-sceptic tech billionaire, leads a Silicon Valley trend of company names derived from The Lord of the Rings, from his own data intelligence group Palantir (magical stones found in Middle-earth) to the weapons maker Anduril (a Tolkien sword). US vice-president JD Vance has said his conservatism was influenced by both Tolkien and CS Lewis, author of the Narnia books.

In other words, a fascination with fantasy literature unites European nationalist conservatives, Trump tech bros, and the Maga movement. Is this a coincidence? Or does something about fantasy fit the rightwing mind unusually well? 

In the Italian case, the fantasy fandom has been “more psychological than political”, says Salvatore Vassallo, political science professor at the University of Bologna. It was important when Meloni and her entourage were young and their section of the right was excluded from the political mainstream by its baggage of fascist “cultural references they could not express” in public.

Fantasy as publicly palatable ersatz reactionary philosophy, then? To be sure, many themes in this literary canon would seem to fit that bill. 

For example, it is easy to see how medieval social hierarchy and essentialist racial categorisation, both common to fantasy worlds, could appeal to reactionary world views. It is also easy to see the draw of the traditional and the ritualistic for those recoiling from modernity. (Vassallo says that Meloni and others’ love for Tolkien was “congruent with something they thought about themselves: ‘pure’ people struggling for values they appreciated but that were undervalued by others around them”.)

But some of these observations are cheap shots. After all, much fantasy can be spun the other way: heroes defy their social hierarchies; fellowships across racial lines defeat evil. A supposed aesthetic dislike for modernity has no place in Silicon Valley’s techno-optimism.

The clue, I think, rather lies in how fantasy tends to the heroic. These are stories of personal persistence in the face of Manichean adversity. They are stories where virtue wins; where individuals — if they can make the right choices, adopt the right values, follow the right instincts — beat the system. They are, one might say, stories of the triumph of the will.

That aligns nicely with populism. It supports the idea that troubles in people’s lives are caused by malign forces and that certain special individuals can take those enemies on and win. Both notions underpin the rhetoric offered by populists for why people (“the” people, no less) should vote for them. “I am your retribution”, as Donald Trump has said.

Populism can be right or left. But in another way, the fantasy genre’s triumph of the will is (as befits the term) easier for right-wing populists to run with. It sublimates a dread of being determined by society’s impersonal structures and a wish for our own choices and values to shape the world around us. It reflects a desire for control, power, and a transparent mechanism from individual choice to social effect — a desire, in short, for an epic world rather than the modern one.

Fantasy represents less a return to a premodern idyll, then, than a fulfilment of the freedom the Enlightenment promised but social complexity took away. This is harder for the left to buy into, for social structure is what the left is all about. On the personal level, leftwing existentialists may want to break the grip of social expectations. But politically, the left embraces the primary importance of social structure and sets out to shape it, while the right aims to leave it in place (in reactionary versions) or destroy it (in more libertarian versions).

Those pure rightwing dreams are destined to fail. We live in modernity whether we like it or not; society inevitably structures our choices. But is it surprising if the resulting frustration feeds a yearning for magical rings and amulets — or powerful but hard-to-fathom technologies?

There is, however, another lesson to be found in fantasy literature. A deep structure binds people and nature together in Ursula Le Guin’s Earthsea series, for example. These are works about the limits of what individual power can achieve, and how it must be used to restore balance and reinforce structures rather than blast through them. Perhaps Giorgia, Peter, JD and their friends should read more fantasy, not less.

FT : Liverpool’s former data guru on signing Salah and Man Utd’s struggles

Liverpool’s former data guru on signing Salah and Man Utd’s struggles
For a decade Ian Graham helped drive Liverpool’s analytical approach. Now CEO of Ludonautics, he explains why most clubs are still resistant to change

Ian Graham was Liverpool FC’s director of research from 2012 to 2023, charged with applying data analysis to the club’s transfer policy. During this period, the club was a trendsetter in the use of data. Graham, who holds a PhD in physics from Cambridge, is now chief executive of Ludonautics, the sports advisory business that he founded. Its clients include football clubs. 

Simon Kuper: Clubs such as Brighton, Brentford and Liverpool under John Henry’s Fenway Sports Group have benefited from using data analysis. But few others have followed their lead. You have written: “Even today, most Premier League clubs do not take data analysis seriously.” Why is that?

Ian Graham: It’s an organisational problem, and it’s a people problem. Every owner, and I put FSG in the same basket, says “We’re going to come in, we’re going to do things professionally.” But me saying that, and you actually carrying out my orders, are two very different things in a conservative sport. The easiest way to get a new job in football is to be in the middle of the pack. Now, at the top end that really doesn’t work, but most people aren’t at the top end. If you do something different and fail, you’re marked with that for the rest of your career. 

It is changing. The younger generation of managers buys into this in a way that the older generation doesn’t. 

SK: So use of data is spreading? 

IG: It’s slower than it may appear from the outside because people have a motivation to tell you how smart they are. The data people have a lot of information, they even have sophisticated people analysing it, but it doesn’t really inform decisions. 

There’s so much low-hanging fruit that just rots on the vine. Most clubs still don’t pay due diligence on transfers. Not even complicated data analysis, but simple data analysis. 

SK: You’re presenting two different narratives. One is that the game is getting smarter. The other is resistance to change.

The Premier League is pretty good compared with the rest of the world

IG: Yes, there are two narratives. For all I complain about the slow adoption in the Premier League, it’s pretty good compared with the rest of the world. Spain in particular is pretty slow and traditional. Within the Premier League, that change is currently halfway through happening. Manchester United have not made that change yet. Chelsea didn’t have to work that way, so now they’re going through the difficulties of that change. When I started at Liverpool it really was just Liverpool doing it. Arsenal were doing it behind the scenes but it wasn’t really having an impact.

SK: Most clubs still seem to place more importance on choosing their head coach than using data.

IG: It’s still the standard approach in Italy, in Spain, and those teams still do very well in [mainland] Europe: the traditional coach-led show, it’s all about the tactics, that’s what’s going to win the game. 

The number of coaches who make a difference in that way is limited. That approach puts all your eggs in one basket, the coach basket. It’s similar to the number of transfers that fail. You can do exactly the same thing with coaches. You can say, “We’re going to hire the next Guardiola,” but what are your chances of success?  

If coach-led means the coach dictates recruitment, it’s limited. The coach has got two games a week to coach, he has no time to do recruitment. We spoke about [Erik] ten Hag [at Manchester United] recruiting Dutch players because that’s who he knew, and players in the Dutch league. They recruited good players, just not for a good Premier League club. Understand what you’re getting from the coach. You’re not getting 10 points for free from most coaches.

SK: Football clubs traditionally functioned as autocracies. Either the coach decided everything, or the club owner tried to, usually based more on whims than on data. But Liverpool and Brentford have committees to decide transfers. Surely football will move that way, towards the wisdom of crowds?  

IG: The owners are always great for sticking their oar in and making a renegade decision. “What’s the point in owning a football club if I can’t sign my favourite player and I have to listen to what some spreadsheet says about data?” I think the coach as dictator is specific to England, and is something that is dying off. It is more wisdom of crowds.  


Former Liverpool coach Jürgen Klopp had a big say over recruitment © John Powell/Liverpool FC/Getty Images
SK: Still, it seems that Liverpool’s manager until last season, Jürgen Klopp, achieved such status towards the end of his tenure that he acquired great personal power.  

IG: Jürgen created a lot of success for the club, so it’s understandable why it moved in that direction. I’m happy to talk about my colleagues persuading Jürgen [in 2017] that Mo Salah was the player to buy instead of Julian Brandt. In 2022, he signed Darwin Núñez [for £70mn plus add-ons] instead of Alexander Isak. Both players, if you look at top young centre-forwards in Europe, they would be number one and two — or two and three but [Erling] Haaland was going to [Manchester] City and out of our price range. Jürgen preferred Núñez. It would be very churlish of me to say, “It’s terrible that Jürgen had his choice”, when in the past Jürgen had been persuaded by me and my colleagues of a different choice. And it was still the case that we signed good players — in Núñez’s case, one of the best young strikers in Europe. [Nuñez, now out of favour at Liverpool, is reportedly about to be sold to Napoli for around half the sum Liverpool paid for him.]

SK: For about 20 years now, clubs have had event data, which measures what players do on the ball: chiefly passes, shots, tackles. Now we also have tracking data, which measures their movements around the pitch. What new insights does that provide? 

IG: From about 2016, tracking data where you see 25 frames per second, 22 players, became available. The amount of resource that’s required to extract insight from that data is an order of magnitude more. That’s where the cutting edge is. The next level of data is that instead of one point per player, 25 frames per second, we get to 29 points per player, 25 frames per second, which gives the location of all their joints, their eyes, various way-points on their head, and so on. So you can see: this player’s doing a jump, this player’s making a kicking action, this player’s looking behind them. You don’t currently get that from tracking data. Very few if any clubs will have the resources to even ingest the data.

SK: Will tracking data help clubs better evaluate defensive players, who do most of their work off the ball? That might raise their transfer fees towards the level of attacking players.

IG: The most difficult position to analyse is centre-back. They’re the most off-ball. So Ibrahima Konaté [signed by Liverpool from RB Leipzig in 2021] had a much higher rating in our tracking model than in our event model. Why? Because Leipzig plays suicide football and he has to defend half a pitch five times a game. So the event model is saying, “So much danger is coming through Konaté.” The tracking model can see, “Well, he’s literally the only player in his zone”. 

It leaves us a more sophisticated understanding of what matters and who’s good. You can ask, “Is this player consistently picking what we consider to be the high-value option?” The event data can’t see the other options. Tracking data lifts the lid on it all and says, “This is exactly what the player had in front of him.”


Liverpool centre back Ibrahima Konate displayed high numbers in Graham’s tracking model © Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images
SK: How might AI change data analysis?

IG: The public conception is, “I’ll feed all this data into my AI model, and my model will identify the next Lionel Messi.” That’s wrong. The way it makes a difference is certainly with data collection, so tracking data is computer-vision algorithms, which are AI algorithms really. We did a paper with DeepMind [Alphabet’s AI research laboratory] looking at predicting where players would run in the next 10 seconds. We’re pretty good for 10 or 15 seconds, until the next pass or the next challenge between two players happened. 

I dislike AI because it’s a black box. It’s getting better, but it finds it difficult to explain its reasoning to you. When you look at tracking-data models, you start with a simple model, where if you ask me, “Why does your model say this?” I can pull apart each piece and say, “This is why.” But it’s all simplified, because football is such a complicated game, so our ambition is to start taking out those simple pieces, put in an AI model that is less explainable, but you can see the differences it’s making to the model. You can see what your model is missing, and what the AI is better at predicting.

SK: What questions might a club analyst ask AI in two years’ time? 

IG: The big difficulty is to say, “In our [club’s] system, how would this player perform?” You can use simple models to look at how many times you get on the ball in your current team versus what you’ll get at our team, how many players will you have in front of you. But I can imagine AI will do a better job than a handmade model. 

SK: So in theory, AI could take somebody who’s playing for Lille and ask, “How would he look at Manchester City?”

IG: We currently try to do that, but AI can help give a more tailored answer to that question. 

SK: What changes do you expect in the use of data to recruit players and shape tactics?

IG: Recruitment’s the big-ticket thing that clubs do, so it’s the most important thing to get right. When I was at Liverpool, the most impactful thing you could do was sign good players and pray that they’re going to make the impact on the pitch, because the coaches are the experts when it comes to tactics. It’s hard to make a difference there. 

But today, the new generation is [asking], “You can say something about recruitment, why can’t you tell me something about my game? Tell me where my position is going wrong.” It was interesting talking to this centre-back. He said, “Even if you’re wrong, I’m interested to see how you think of my game. I’m interested in my next transfer. What makes me look good and what makes me look bad to data people?”

SK: Which single type of data on players that currently isn’t collected would you like to have in future? 

IG: The mental side of the game is super important and very difficult to measure. Well, you’ve got a whole host of data sources directly from the players through their social media and interviews, and so on. There may be some clues, or you can look at differences between their normal statements if they’re always positive — maybe they’re slightly less positive. Taking large quantities of unstructured, difficult-to-process data such as body language and facial expressions in interviews, that’s the sort of thing that AI is good at.

We pitched this as our first idea to DeepMind and they decided against doing it, I think on either moral or ethical grounds. It comes down to that ethical issue: should you be doing this? I understand why they got cold feet. 

FT : Traders bet on interest rate cuts from Jay Powell’s successor at the Fed

Traders bet on interest rate cuts from Jay Powell’s successor at the Fed
Donald Trump’s criticism of central bank chair has fuelled expectations of a dovish shift once he leaves in May next year

Traders are increasing their bets on US interest rate cuts after Jay Powell leaves the Federal Reserve next year, as the central bank chief faces a barrage of criticism from Donald Trump for moving too slowly in lowering borrowing costs.

Markets are anticipating at least five quarter-point cuts by the end of next year, according to futures pricing, compared with four at most a month ago. The change in expectations is partly down to rate-setters tempering their view on the inflationary effects of tariffs. But analysts say it also reflects the president’s constant haranguing of Powell as “Mr Too Late”, which has fanned expectations he will appoint a more dovish successor.

“The more notable shift over the past month is in cuts priced for the middle of next year, as the market seems to increasingly anticipate ongoing easing once the next Fed chair is in place,” wrote Matthew Raskin, head of US rates research at Deutsche Bank in a recent note to clients.

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Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday that he had narrowed his search for the next Fed chair to “three or four people”. He added: “I mean [Powell] goes out pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he’s terrible.”

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis, are widely believed to be among front runners for the job. Fed governor Christopher Waller, who this week endorsed a rate cut as soon as July, is also under consideration.

“I think that the prevailing market wisdom is that whoever replaces Powell is going to be more dovish. It doesn’t mean that they will be non-responsive to the realities of the economy, but they may be more amenable to [lowering rates],” said Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

While candidates such as Warsh have historically been more hawkish than dovish, Lyngen said that might change in the current environment.

He said: “Trump has been extremely critical of Powell. The people who are under consideration are currently auditioning for the job. To look at prior performance and map it to future performance is not right in this instance.”

Expectations have mounted in recent months that the Fed may appoint a “shadow chair” in advance of the end of Powell’s term who could signal a more dovish direction on rates. The White House said a decision on Powell’s replacement was not “imminent”.

Comments from Fed policymakers have also stoked expectations of faster cuts. Governor Michelle Bowman joined Waller this week in saying she supports cutting rates as soon as July, citing lower-than-expected inflation.

The two- and five-year Treasury yields, which are sensitive to rate expectations, reached two-month lows this week as investors priced in the possibility of more rate cuts in the medium-term.

But Powell has pushed back against the possibility of a July cut and has not reacted to Trump’s repeated demands, largely because of inflation risks. At a speech in Congress on Tuesday, Powell said that cuts were off the table until the autumn, as the central bank was expecting to see the effects of Trump’s tariffs on prices in June and July.

Consumer price inflation accelerated slightly in May to a rate of 2.4 per cent, though the rise was smaller than economists had predicted.

>>> Barrons Weekend Summary

Cover:
-President Donald Trump is aiming to revive the US manufacturing industry, which currently employs half of all cars sold in the country. The current setup uses low-cost foreign manufacturing to produce lower-value parts, while building higher-end components at home. The US has also attracted foreign car manufacturers, such as Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, and Hyundai Motor, which directly employ 67,000 manufacturing workers and support nearly half-million jobs. Trump is proposing a 25% penalty on imported cars and parts, along with reciprocal tariffs and Section 232 levies on steel and aluminum. The White House has cited the desire to boost American manufacturing and protect economic security as reasons for the tariffs. After lobbying, the president modified the parts tariffs, giving the industry two years to move supply chains back home. However, similar penalties on car parts could cause more damage, as General Motors generated almost $160B selling cars in North America in 2024.

Interview:
-Greg Case, CEO of the risk management and insurance broker AON, identifies four megatrends influencing the business world: trade, technology, weather, and workforce. These trends create client demand and help clients deal with challenges. The fifth trend, which involves all of these factors, is the most worrisome, according to Case. The combination of two or more of these factors is increasingly significant. AON, a Chicago-based company, was formed in 1982 by the merger of Ryan Insurance Group and Combined Insurance Company of America. The company, which has roots in Chicago, was founded by insurance giants Pat Ryan and W. Clement Stone, who were both benefactors of Northwestern University and had a stake in the Chicago Bears. Case's company has been in operation since 2005.

Tech Trader:
-Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) has allocated $10B to address the impact of the rapid changes in the US-Taiwan currency exchange rate, marking its third move in the past 13 months. The company collects US dollars from customers like Apple and Nvidia, but reports its financials in its domestic New Taiwan Dollar. For years, a favorable conversion rate helped the company, collecting the strong currency and reporting its financials every quarter in the weaker one. However, due to shifting US policy, the dollar has weakened, affecting Taiwan Semi's margin-enhancing currency trade. The company stated that every one percent depreciation of the U.S. dollar against the NT dollar would result in an approximately 0.4 percentage point decrease in its operating margin.

The Trader:
-Circle Internet Group, a stablecoin company, experienced a significant surge in its first day of trading, with shares up nearly 600% from their offering price. The company raised over $1B in its offering and has a market valuation of $50B. This first-month performance is unprecedented, as billion-dollar IPOs do not typically behave like this in the first month of trading. CoreWeave, an artificial-intelligence tech company, had a tepid debut after reducing its offering price and trimming the number of shares it was selling. However, the stock has since quadrupled from its IPO price. Investaaplors should not get caught up in the hype, as IPOs often pull back after strong debuts once insiders and early backers can sell shares after lockup periods expire, typically six months from the IPO date. Early returns for IPOs are often driven by momentum, fear of missing out, and speculative interest from retail traders.
-Constellation Brands, a beverage company that owns the Corona and Modelo beer brands, Schrader, Ruffino, and Kim Crawford wineries, and several spirits makers, has seen its shares tumble over 25% this year due to changing consumer tastes. However, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, and other top institutions have bought the dip. Berkshire Hathaway bought about 5.6M shares of Constellation in the fourth quarter of 2024 and more than doubled its stake to 12M shares in the first quarter, making it the third-largest shareholder. The company's valuation has become so cheap that much of the pessimism may already be reflected in the price. Shares trade for only 12 times earnings estimates for the next fiscal year, a 10-year low and well below the average price/earnings ratio of around 20. Evercore ISI analyst Robert Ottenstein argues that the expected growth for the Modelo and Pacifico beer brands should lead to annual sales gains of about 2.4% for Constellation over the next few years, providing a path for the stock to regain its footing and eventually move higher.

Features:
-Nike's stock is on track to close out its best month in over two decades, charging higher on hopes that new CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround plan will make the sportswear giant a winner again. HSBC analyst Erwan Rambourg upgraded the stock and increased his price target to $80, his first Buy rating on Nike in 3½ years. Nike is taking drastic steps to improve the business under Hill, including heavily discounting products, investing in sports-focused innovation and marketing, and fixing relationships with wholesale partners that were severed under previous CEO John Donahoe. Under Hill, the company has also shaken up its management team, with the sector's "most comprehensive" senior management changes in decades. The new initiatives weighed on fiscal-fourth-quarter results, with earnings per share contracting by more than 80% year over year to 14 cents and sales falling 12% to $11.1B. Executives assured investors that the May quarter would reflect the biggest financial impact from the turnaround efforts.
-Holtec International, a key player in the nuclear industry, is set to go public within several months, according to CEO Krishna Singh. This would be the largest nuclear-energy offering in years, offering investors a pure-play way to buy into the industry. Holtec already generates substantial revenue from activities like decommissioning nuclear plants and handling nuclear waste, and could be worth over $10B. The company is also restoring a decommissioned nuclear plant at the Palisades Nuclear Plant in Michigan, which was shut down in 2022 for financial reasons. Holtec plans to place another two small modular reactors at the Michigan site, although it has not yet received federal or state approval. Holtec, founded in 1986, has made money by decommissioning existing nuclear plants and building containment units for spent fuel sold worldwide. Its annual profits are estimated to be over $500M. Singh plans to sell about 20% of the company's equity to investors in January, although his consultants predict April. He is currently discussing with consultants if the company's books are up to snuff for a public company.

Europe:
-Apple has made significant changes to its terms of service in the European Union (EU) in response to a 500M euro fine for noncompliance with the EU's Digital Markets Act. The changes are intended to avoid daily files of around €50 million, or 5% of Apple's average daily revenue. Apple has until Friday to make these changes, and the European Commission will poll users and developers like Spotify to decide if they meet the DMA's stringent requirements. Apple's new proposal offers developers a new set of choices and additional operational requirements if they opt out of Apple's distribution model. Apple is offering a 30-minute support session to help developers understand the best option for them. The changes add layers of complexity to App Store commissions, with Apple taking a mix of 2%, 3%, 5%, 10%, and 13% fees depending on the choices developers make.

Emerging Markets:
-no update

Commodities:
-Platinum has gained over half its original value since the end of 2024, reaching levels not seen since August 2014, nearly 11 years ago. Gold has also seen a quarter increase, while silver has gained 22%. However, there is a mismatch between the supply of platinum and demand, with the majority of the world's supply coming from mines in South Africa, which produced 12% less platinum in the first quarter than they did a year earlier. The supply of platinum recycled from scrapped cars has declined from 2022 levels. Demand is increasing from China, the world's biggest platinum consumer, with Shuibei, China's wholesale platinum hub, adding 10 new platinum-jewelry showrooms so far in 2025. Higher prices for gold are shifting customers to the white metal.
Investors can buy the abrdn Physical Platinum Shares exchange-traded fund, the most liquid platinum fund with $1.56B in assets, or platinum bars and coins. However, they should consider the risks before jumping in, as platinum's price could already reflect all bullish factors, leaving no more room for gains. Prices have climbed 54% for the year, with much of the gains (32%) taking place over the past month. Platinum is currently more than 30% above its 50-day moving average, with the only other time it rallied so far above trend was in February 2008, when it slid 40% from March to August 2008.

Streetwise:
-Nathan's Famous stock has seen a 68% increase in value over the past year, it’s a surprising result. But the restaurant industry has, in fact, seen surprising returns. EATZ, an exchange-traded fund tracking 25 names, has made 23% over the past year, beating the S&P 500 index by 10 points. The restaurant industry is also experiencing growth in dining returns, an aspect perhaps reflected by the ar doubling of revenue at Eli Lilly, maker of the anti-obesity drug Zepbound.. Nathan's Famous is a small company that distributes branded foods outside of its restaurants, with modest operating results and speculation about a buyer taking the company private. Brinker International, which owns Chili's, has also seen a 190% increase in share prices. New management has trimmed the menu to make kitchens more efficient, and the biggest hit has been a new menu of combo meals starting at $11, including burgers that taste like better, beefier versions of McDonald's top sellers. McDonald's shares have only done half as well as the market, returning 8%, while Brinker stock is up 190%.