*CRISPIN ODEY SAYS HOME RETAIL/SAINSBURY DEAL `VERY DOUBTFUL'
ML:
TULLETS - Unaudited FY revs in line, op margins to be higher than thought.+5%
TULLETS - Unaudited FY revs in line, op margins to be higher than thought.+5%
GAMESA - Spec Siemens hired bankers and talking with IBE over bid for GAM.+5%
SABADELL - Solid, headlines ahead and Q4 NII a 2-3% beat................+3-4%
FERRAGAMO - Q4 sales 5% beat v cons but SSSG remains poor at -4%........+3-4%
BANCO POP - Headline miss on provisions, but NII ahead & u/lying fine...+2-3%
BMPS - Operating results palatable and no backwards step in capital.......+3%
VEDANTA - Q3 EBITDA a 2% beat v cons, run rating ahead of our ests........+2%
JC DECAUX - Org rev growth 4.2% v 3.4% guide,FY rev growth 14% v cons 12%.+2%
GSK - 2 stories, spec JNJ looking at bid & co close to selling consumer...+2%
VESTAS/NORDEX - +ve read from Siemens/Gamesa bid spec.....................+2%
CAIXABANK - Headline miss on impairments but u/lying solid on NII/LLPs....+2%
TELEFONICA - Agrees significant cost cutting plan with employees in 16/17.+2%
TELIASONERA - Rev & EBITDA beat on Sweden but FCF light on inc capex......+2%
OMV - Operationally in line, EUR 1.5bn writedown on revised lower macro...+1%
SIEMENS - Spec hired bankers to explore bid for Gamesa, in talks with IBE.+1%
SKY - H1 revs in line, EBITDA a 3% miss driven by Germany, UK strong......+1%
ASHTEAD - URI US traded 4% lower than our close in the US yday............u/c
ELISA - Revs 3% ahead and EBITDA in line, capex a touch higher............-1%
YARA - NOK 1.15bn impairments and pre-announces Q4 10% below cons.......-1-2%
LUNDIN - Mixed, reserves in line, production & capex guided lower.......-1-2%
CS:
AG Bar UNCH Expects revs of 257mln vs bberg cons of 260.2mln
AG Bar UNCH Expects revs of 257mln vs bberg cons of 260.2mln
Barclays M/P Been hit with a lawsuit for nearly £1b from Amanda Staveley
Elisa Corp -2% Q4 small ahead. Q4 Revs 3% beat, EBITDA 0.6% beat
Ferragamo M/P LFL disappointing, higher-than-anticipated FX benefits
Gamesa +7-10% Siemens Explores Purchase of Gamesa, El Confidencial
GSK +1% CEO may sell its consumer healthcare products division
Iberdrola +2-3% Iberdrola holds 19.7% stake in Gamesa, Siemens bid spec
JC Decaux +1-2% FY revenue beat. EU3.21B vs est EU3.14B
Linde +1-2% CS upgrade to OUTPERFORM (Long term strategy)
Miners +1-2% Copper +0.75%, Brent +1.80%, Iron Ore +0.45%, China +3.63%
Oils +1-2% Brent +1.8% to $34.75, WTI +1.85% to $33.95
Rank Group +1% 1h sales 374.2m cons 372.5m, LFL growth across all brands
Riter +2% FY Sales 3.6% beat, orders inline, guidance inline
Siemens -1-2% Siemens Explores Purchase of Gamesa, El Confidencial
Sky +1-2% 1H Rev. Matches Estimate; James Murdoch Named Chairman
Telefonica +2-3% To Take 2.9 Billion Euro Charge for Early Retirement
TeliaSonera +2-3% Q4 EBITDA SEK6.56b est SEK6.31b, announces new divi policy
Tullet Prebon M/P FY revenue inline, outlook reads fine
Tullet Prebon M/P FY revenue inline, outlook reads fine
Yara -1-2% Q4 EBITDA expected to be NK3.5bn, Cons bberg 4.3bn
RBC:
AIRBUS +1% Iran order announced on the close a tad better, US aerospace
AIRBUS +1% Iran order announced on the close a tad better, US aerospace
CAIXABNK -2% Q4 results inline but '16 guidance weak, NII very weak + REPSOL.
ELISA +1% Q4 revs ahead, EBITDA beat on consumer segment, guidance cautious
GAMESA +15% El Confidencial report SIEMENS hired D.Bank to look at acquisition
IBERDRLA +1% Company owns 20% of GAMESA.
MITTAL +2% EU impose 13% tariffs on Reinforcing Steel from China.
OMV -2% Q4 production light, downstream charge and cautious outlook.
POPULAR -1% Report Q4 loss due to legal provisions, guidance on call later.
SABADELL +2% Q4 net profit ahead, bad loans ratio lower, NII ahead.
SKY 0% H1 operating profit up 12%, revenue inline, management change.
TELIASON.-1% Q4 results beat, Revs 2.4% ahead, but guidance miss, div cut.
VESTAS +2% On read through from El Confidencial GAMESA article
YARA -5% Warning due to impairment, EBITDA a 5% miss.
ShoreCap:
AG BARR - Q4 revs +5%,ytd +2.5>%,performance improves over H2,margins inline.+1%
ShoreCap:
AG BARR - Q4 revs +5%,ytd +2.5>%,performance improves over H2,margins inline.+1%
STATPRO - strong growth cloud-based service but pro services sig.lower.......-2%
TULLETT PREBON - pick-up in activity,revs +14%,sees FY op.pft margin better..+5%
OXFORD BIOMED - announces second CART programme for Novartis.................+1%
RANK - H1 pbt 35.8m.Divi 1.6p.Confident forward statement....................+2%
SKY - H1 op pft 747m.Divi 12.6p.337k new customers join Sky in Q2............+1%
VEDANTA - produces EBITDA margin of 23% in challenging markets...............+2%
ITM POWER - looks to raise min £5m in placing and open offer at 15p..........MKT
ROLLS-ROYCE - FT reports of more cuts to senior management..................UNCH
We resumed coverage of Orange at OW with a PT of €20.5. TDC hosted a CMD and cut its dividend. We see positive short-term catalysts at KPN. Tele2 Q4 results were a miss on clean EBITDA. Iliad was reported to be interested in entering the UK market.
Weekly focus: We resumed coverage of Orange with an Overweight rating
and PT of €20.5. We forecast a recovery in French telcos (Base Case) which
could be strengthened by potential consolidation between Bouygues/Orange
(Bull Case). Better OpFCF dynamics in Spain and growth at Orange MEA will
also help to drive FCF growth and deleveraging.
We believe positive momentum will continue at KPN with solid 4Q15 results
and a positive 2016 outlook, upcoming CMD on March 7th and approval of
BASE disposal. We see 7-10% annual returns for the foreseeable future
BMPS Stated after mkt hours phased in CET1 FL at end of ’15 was 11.7% (transitional 12%). Liquidity position is the highest it’s been for 4 years. Credit quality improved in Q4 with a reduction of deteriorated credit stock. FY ’15 Net Profit Euro 390 mn (including effect of restating a derivative transaction at the request of regulators). Deposits stood at 68.9 billion euros at the end of the year, up 7 percent on the year.
Reuters reports comments from CEO Mr Viola that there are no new factors that can explain the recent stock performance and that the bank was in good shape. He added that the scheme approved by the government to help banks offload their bad loans was a step in the right direction. He did not specify whether the lender would join the scheme. He also said that at the moment there are no concrete merger options and that client outflows had stabilised over the last few days ( in Q1 Customer deposits declined by EUR 3.4Bn qoq, or 3% qoq, in line with what had been already anticipated by Mr Viola).
POP MILANO / BCO POPOLARE Reuters reports that a Pop Milano / Bco Popolare merger as equals is closer and that the government approves. Il Sole reports that a merger of the two is close and that a deal could be signed by mid February. Suggested that a letter of intent could be signed at the time of the publication of FY ’15 results.
GENERALI MF reports that a board meeting on a new CEO could be held at the end of next week.
BAD LOANS / BAD BANK Reuters reports comments from a Treasury official that the scheme to help banks sell their bad loans should be in place by April and that the Government is not expected to limit the amount of debt that the state will guarantee.
* Sector returning to growth thanks to improving regulation
* Upside remains on valuation; some defensive characteristics
* Our key incumbent picks are Orange, DT, TI and KPN; of the altnets, we prefer NOS, DRI, Iliad and Numericable-SFR
Stock picking: focus on incumbents; be selective with altnets
Our key incumbent ideas are Orange (return to growth, consolidation upside), Deutsche Telekom (domestic and US momentum), Telecom Italia (consolidation upside, target price cut to EUR1.25 from EUR1.35, mostly as a result of FX) and KPN (EBITDA back to growth) – all rated Buy. With respect to the altnets, we see upside in Drillisch and NOS, but also Iliad and Numericable-SFR on the back of consolidation prospects – all rated Buy.
J Sainsbury offers only modest increase to reported 130p per share initial offer for Home Retail Group
The UK-based supermarket group J Sainsbury [LON:SBRY] is proposing only a modest increase to its reported initial offer of 130p per share for Home Retail Group [LON:HOME], the Financial Times reported. The newspaper’s market report section did not cite a source for the speculation.
J Sainsbury’s improved offer would likely fall short of the price at which HRG’s board would recommend the bid by a minimum of 50p per share, according to traders cited by the report.
Separately, the item noted that HRG’s second-largest shareholder Toscafund has cut its stake in the retail holding company by 7.25%. Toscafund founder Martin Hughes has been critical of HRG’s management over their rejection of J Sainsbury’s initial offer without talking to shareholders first, the article added.
An analyst cited by the report said any bid higher than 135p per share would represent a premium compared to the retail sector in general. Such an offer could be justified only by a “strategically compelling” deal, the analyst argued.
Home Retail Group’s share price closed 7.1p down at 142.5p in London yesterday, 28 January, valuing the company at GBP 1.15bn
Kone could acquire rival to create buffer against Otis
Kone, the Finnish lift maker, could acquire a rival to create a buffer against its main competitor the Connecticut – based Otis, according t Helsingin Sanomat. The Finnish language piece had written an unsourced analysis about Kone’s quarterly results and wrote that due to its large cash reserves Kone could buy one of its significant rivals. With such acquisition it could boost its position against its chief rival Otis.
Kone reported sales of EUR 8.6bn last year, according to a press release.
Helsingin Sanomat,
Dow+0.79% S&P+0.55% Nasdaq+0.86% Russell+0.05%
US Market closed higher helped by speculation of oil outputs cut. the major indices lost their footing near their opening highs as weaker than expected economic data, and conflicting reports between OPEC and non-OPEC states limited the upside of today's trade. WTI crude ended its session higher by 2.8% at $33.22/bbl. the upswing in oil, energy (+3.2%) settled on top of the leaderboard while utilities (+1.6%) and technology (+1.5%) followed. On the flipside, health care (-2.3%) was unable to make it out of negative territory while telecom services (+0.1%) and financials (+0.1%) also underperformed. Volume were above 1bil shares. US After Hours GIMO +15.3%, MTW +14.1%, QLGC +10.9%, FTNT +9.2%, AMZN -13.6%, AZPN -13.3%, QSII -9.0%, EA -8.0% following earnings/guidance, STRP+4.6% on Blackrock 5.3% stake, VALE+3% on dvd news. BOJ's negative -0.1% interest rate was voted on by a narrow 5-4 margin. Accompanying the decision, the BOJ also cuts its FY16/17 CPI projection to 0.8% v 1.4% prior forecast and maintained FY17/18 at 1.8%, adding the assumptions were based on oil price rising to over $40/brl over projected period. BOJ also added it was prepared to adjust negative rates even deeper. USD/JPY spiked up some 300pips from session lows to as high as 121.50, Nikkei225 rallied strongly, and the S&P500 futures traded up by nearly 1% in electronic trade. PBoC injected additional CNY100B in repos to supply more liquidity going into the Lunar New Year holidays in China next month. A researcher with PBoC warned the central bank is in for a "tough battle" against speculators in CNY, but was confident that Chinese currency can be kept stable. Another PBoC academic said RRR cut can still happen but its impact is limited by factors such as Fed tightening. In Australia, Treasury Sec Fraser warned PM Turnbull that AAA credit rating is in jeopardy unless the gvot cuts spending.
Nikkei +2.8% Hang Seng +2.19% Shanghai +3.65%
Eur$ 1.0911 CNH 6.6152 CNY 6.5760 JPY 120.58 GBP 1.440 CHF 1.0164 RUB$ 75.6137 WTI$ 33.85 +1.9%
S&P +0.93% EuroStoxx +1.6% Dax +1.7% SMI +1.23%
Macro :
- Japan Adopts Negative-Rate Strategy to Aid Weakening Economy
- PBOC Adviser Says RRR Cut Constrained by FED Rate Increase, Yuan
- German FinMin Says Leading Indicators Suggest Recovery: Reuters
- Oil Market Needs More Evidence of U.S. Output Reductions: TD
- French Growth Slows in 4th Quarter as Terrorism Hurts Spending
Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus Gets Order for 118 Passenger Planes From Iran
- AIR FP : Airbus’s Bregier Sees First Deliveries to Iran This Year
- AAPL US : Apple Said Developing Wireless-Charged Phone for as Soon as 2017
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi FY Net Income ~EU390m; CET1 Ratio 12%
- CA FP : Carrefour CEO Plassat Says China Market Remains Promising: Echos
- CABK SM : CaixaBank 4Q Net Loss EU182m; CET1 Fully-Loaded 11.6%
- CNE LN : Vedanta Board Said to Mull Revised Terms for Cairn Merger: CNBC
- DEXB BB : Dexia Says 1-for-1000 Reverse Stock Split Effective March 4
- ELI1V FH : Elisa 4Q Ebitda Misses Estimates, Sales Beat
- FCC SM : FCC shareholder Carlos Slim considers de-listing offer for Portland Valderrivas
- SFER IM : Ferragamo 2015 Sales, 4Q Sales Constant FX Beat Ests.
- GAM SM : Gamesa eyed by Siemens; Deutsche Bank advising http://bit.ly/1WQXpEO
- GSK LN : GlaxoSmithkline considering sale of consumer healthcare arm; Reckitt, Unilever and P&G said to be interested; talk of takeover interest from Johnson & Johnson
- KUNN SW : Kuoni Confirms EQT Emerged as Preferred Party for Possible Bid
- KNEBV FH : Kone could acquire rival to create buffer against Otis - Helsingin Sanomat,
- MMT FP : M6 to Dispute Paris Premiere Decision With Regulator: Le Figaro
- MAU FP : Maurel & Prom 4Q Rev. EU71m
- RI FP : Pernod Ricard Said to Be in Discussions to Acquire Monkey 47 Gin
- RLIA SM : Realia Business minority shareholders demand Inversora Carso increase takeover offer price above EUR 0.80 per share
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce to Announce More Senior Mgmt Job Cuts Friday
- TEF SM : Telefonica Retirement Plan to Cost EU2.9B Before Tax
- TLSN SS : Swedish Institutions Have Sold SEK3b of TeliaSonera Shares: DI
- TLSN SS : TeliaSonera 4Q Ebitda Beats Estimates; Dividend Policy Changed
- UBER IPO : Uber to Cut Rates in New York City From Friday: NY Post
- VED LN : Vedanta Board Said to Mull Revised Terms for Cairn Merger: CNBC
- VIV FP : Vivendi Talks With beIn Sports Are Ongoing, Le Figaro Says
- YARA NO : Yara To Take About NOK1.15b Asset Impairment Charge in 4Q
Gamesa eyed by Siemens; Deutsche Bank advising
Siemens [ETR: SIE] has mandated Deutsche Bank to analyse the acquisition of the Spanish wind-turbine manufacturer Gamesa [BME:GAM], El Confidencial reported, citing sources with knowledge of the process.
According to the report, Siemens has begun talks with Iberdrola [BME:IBE], the Spanish energy group that is Gamesa's main shareholder with a 19.7% stake. The two are exploring options to structure the operation, including a public offer, the Spanish-language report said.
Gamesa shares are trading at EUR 14.4 per share, giving the company a market capitalisation of EUR 4.021bn, the report noted.
Gamesa leads in Mexico, China and India and is the second largest operator in Brazil, the article added. In the US, the Spanish company is the fourth main operator.
In 2015 Siemens reported profit of EUR 7.38bn, up 34% on the previous year, over revenues of EUR 75.636bn, up 6.2%, El Confidencial said. The group’s wind and renewable energy division posted sales of EUR 5.66bn and profit of EUR 160m.
Gamesa announced last June that for 2017 it wants to reach annual sales of 3,500MW -3,800MW almost doubling the 1.953MW reported in 2013 and exceeding by almost 45% the figures in 2014. It anticipates EBIT of EUR 360m, double the figure in 2014.
In 9M15, Gamesa’s EBIT stood at EUR 235m (almost doubling the figure for the same period a year earlier) and its profit grew to EUR 126m, from EUR 64m in the same period a year earlier.
Gamesa will announce its annual results on 25 February, the report added.