>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrade & Downgrade - 9th of February 2016

>>> Up
*ARCELORMITTAL RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN
*EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC RAISED TO BUY AT JEFFERIES
*GLENCORE RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*GRIFOLS B SHARES RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*KINNEVIK RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFAML
*LUXOTTICA RAISED TO HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*NH HOTELES RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*SWISS PRIME SITE RAISED TO BUY AT BAADER-HELVEA

>>> Down
*ARCELORMITTAL CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT ING; PT CUT TO EU3.10
*ARCELORMITTAL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*E.ON RUSSIA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*RANDGOLD RESOURCES CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC
*RANDGOLD RESOURCES CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*UBS CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*BEIERSDORF RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RBC, PT EU97
*BHP BILLITON RATED NEW SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC; PT 700P
*DANIELI RESUMED AT NEUTRAL AT MEDIOBANCA; PT EU20.10
*DET NORSKE RATED NEW BUY AT NOMURA; PT NOK68
*HENKEL RATED NEW SECTORPERFORM AT RBC, PT EU103
*HOIST FINANCE RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE; PT SEK
*LUNDIN PETROLEUM RESUMED AT NEUTRAL AT NOMURA; PT SEK115
*MAIRE TECNIMONT RESUMED AT OUTPERFORM AT MEDIOBANCA; PT EU2.90
*RIO TINTO RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*SOLVAY REINSTATED AT OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE; PT EU87
*SSAB RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*VOESTALPINE RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN, PT EU32
*WACKER CHEMIE ASSUMED OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY, PT EU75

>>> Call

(CS) Global Theme Update

*This report launches our new monthly Credit Suisse Thematic Dashboard. The Dashboard monitors the performance and drivers of 10 key global themes of structural growth. We combine a bottom-up understanding of what companies best reflect a theme with the discipline of Credit Suisse HOLT’s scorecard. We revisit our Thematic 30, our most preferred stocks across all themes. 
* Pay for what you (can’t) get. In our view, a world of shrinking real and nominal growth rates is one where you pay up for premium growth qualities. Our strategy team’s reports also focus on “growth” as a style (2016 Outlook: Themes, Sectors and Styles). The team’s recent equities downgrade, due to the paucity of earnings growth, further supports our focus on structural growth (Equities: reduce weightings into tactical bounce). 
* Growth stock framework. To pick stocks and themes for the here and now, we apply the framework set out in Investing for growth 2.0. The two key attributes to isolate are “high quality” and “strong momentum" (earnings and price) as per the HOLT® scorecard. It guides the investor away from stocks and themes that may have structural merit but appear to be exposed to cyclical risks. 
* Most preferred themes. As strong as the multi-year merits of all themes we highlight may be, our quality and momentum analysis encourages a focus right now on plays on the untapped potential of the internet (still), healthy living and ageing. Notably, these have strong emerging market and consumer components that we think are lost to many in the prevailing risk-off environment. Plays on the big data revolution and its convergence with industrial processes also stand out. 
* “The Thematic 30”. Distilled from this approach, we have refreshed our global thematic stock list. We have isolated merits of quality and momentum but also looked away from purely HOLT metrics for sales and earnings growth above MSCI World. With an accent on quality, we also minimise financial and credit risk. New additions to the list are Alibaba, Alphabet, Bumrungrad Hospitals, Geberit, Han's Laser, Planet Fitness and SAP.

>>> US Close Dow-1.10% S&P-1.42% Nasdaq-1.82% Russell-1.64% VIX


Closing Market Summary: Indices End Monday Off Lows

The stock market ended its first session of the week with moderate losses despite strong buying interest in the final hour of trade. Today's trade was dominated by concerns regarding slowing global growth, a decline in oil, and the ability to sustain further fed funds rate hikes. Trade saw a flight from risk assets to safe-haven investments amid growing uncertainty. The Nasdaq Composite (-1.8%) ended its day behind both the S&P 500 (-1.4%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.1%).

Over the weekend, China released data that showed a $100 billion decline in its foreign exchange reserves, moving the reserves to their lowest level since May 2012. This weighed on global markets as they began to question how much longer the People's Bank of China can prop up the yuan. On a related note, China's Shanghai Composite is closed for the week for the Lunar New Year.

Ahead of today's session European regional indices responded to growing uncertainty of the future of the fed funds rate, which was blurred after the January Employment Situation Report revealed misses in headline metrics but could still be used to justify rate increases due to shrinking unemployment and wage growth. European markets followed our rout with a day-long decline of their own. European banks led the decline with Deutsche Bank (DB 15.54, -1.35) falling 8.0% amid concerns over the state of the bank's balance sheet and derivative exposure. The decline widened Deutsche Bank's 2016 dive to 38.7% and was so jarring that the bank came out with a press release defending its capital position, saying it has roughly EUR1 billion in 2016 payment capacity, enough to pay EUR350 million in Tier 1 coupons that will mature in April.

Oil succumbed to early selling pressure from the European session and surrendered the $30.00/bbl during U.S. pre-market trading. WTI crude was able to reclaim this level during today's session but was unable to close its pit session above that mark. WTI crude settled lower by 3.8% at $29.94/bbl. Elsewhere in commodities, gold remained on a torrid pace, extending its 2016 gain to 6.7% amid growing fears that the Fed may have committed a policy error. Today, the yellow metal climbed 3.5% to $1,197.50/ozt.

The commodity-sensitive materials sector (-2.7%) ended its day behind the other groups with financials (-2.6%) and consumer discretionary (-2.0%) following. The countercyclicals led throughout the day with telecom services (-0.4%) and consumer staples (-0.3%) showing the slimmest losses.

The financial sector mirrored concerns in Europe as the economically-sensitive group retreated following the decline in European banks. Money center banks Bank of America (BAC 12.27, -0.68) and Citigroup (C 37.81, -2.05) showed relative weakness with respective losses of 5.3% and 5.1%. Including today's performance, the group has declined 6.2% in February and 14.6% since the end of 2015.

The heavyweight technology space (-1.6%) recovered from early weakness with market cornerstones leading a rally during the final hour. Facebook (FB 99.75, -4.32), and Microsoft (MSFT 49.41, -0.75) climbed off their worst levels, but still ended lower by 4.2% and 1.5%, respectively. Yelp (YELP 16.06, -2.04) surrendered 11.3% after releasing its Q4 earnings during the session. The company reported an EPS miss on in-line revenue. Yelp also announced that CFO Rob Krolik will be stepping down by December 15 or when a replacement is found.

Biotechnology continued to show relative weakness in the health care space (-1.4%), evidenced by the 3.2% decline in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 248.12, -8.12).

In the commodity sensitive energy space, Chesapeake Energy (CHK 2.21, -0.85) plunged 27.8% after early reports stated that the company hired attorneys for restructuring measures. The stock rebounded slightly after the company announced that they will not be pursuing bankruptcy and that Kirkland & Ellis will advise them on ways to strengthen its balance sheet.

On the currency front, the yen rallied 0.9% against the dollar in safe-haven trade. The pair traded at 115.70 at the close of U.S. trade.

Safe-haven investments outperformed today with gold and bonds rallying. The yield on the 10-yr ended the session lower by eight basis points at 1.76%

Today's participation was true to recent form with more than a billion shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Investors did not receive any noteworthy data today and tomorrow's economic news will be limited to the 10:00 ET release of the Wholesale Inventories report for December (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%).

  • Russell 2000 -14.7% YTD
  • Nasdaq -14.5% YTD
  • S&P 500 -9.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones -8.0% YTD

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Risk aversion carries into Asia as banks, energy names lead the selloff; Japan 10-yr yield falls below Zero on safehaven flows


***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 2 V 2 PRIOR; CONDITIONS: 5 (9-month low) V 6 PRIOR
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 111.4 v 111.2 prior
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN QV HOUSE PRICES Y/Y: 12.6% V 14.2% PRIOR; 4-month low; 2nd straight month of decline
- (NZ) New Zealand Jan ANZ Truckometer Heavy M/M: -4.3% v 2.8% prior
- (JP) JAPAN JAN M2 MONEY STOCK Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.1%E; M3 MONEY STOCK Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.5%E
- (UK) JAN BRC LFL SALES Y/Y: 2.6% V 0.3%E (largest rise since Sept 2015)

***Index Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -5.1%, S&P/ASX -2.8%, Kospi closed, Shanghai Composite closed, Hang Seng closed, Mar S&P500 -0.8% at 1,838

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold +0.2% at $1,193/oz, Mar crude oil -0.2% at $30.09/brl, Mar copper flat at $2.09/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 5.0 tonnes to 703.5 tonnes; highest since Jul 16th; 6th straight increase
- JGB: (JP) Japan's MOF sells ¥726B in 1.4% 30-year bonds; Avg yield: 1.068% v 1.224% prior; Bid to cover: 3.04x v 3.73x prior (weakest demand since July)
- JGB: Yield on 10-year JGB falls to 0%; all-time low
- (AU) Australia MoF sells A$150M 2040 indexed bonds at avg yield 1.0126%; bid-to-cover 2.61x

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Much of Asia remained closed for Lunar New Year, though there was still little to celebrate in the financial markets. Among the key indices that opened, Australia was down nearly 3% in the final hour of trade while Nikkei225 fell a whopping 5% as USD/JPY plunged to 15-month low of 114.20. Japan govt debt was also the beneficiary of seemingly indiscriminant risk selling, with the benchmark 10-yr JGB yield joining shorter dated maturities below zero. In other USD majors, AUD/USD was down as much as 70pips from Asia highs at 0.7020. NZD/USD fell as much as 50pips to 0.6575, extending early session thrust lower after reports of a 5.7 magnitude earthquake near South Island.

- In economic data, Australia Jan NAB business conditions hit a 9-month low, though resident economist noted the resilience in the non-mining component of the data while forecasting the RBA to remain on hold for the foreseeable future. New Zealand property space also showed more evidence of retreat, as y/y price growth slowed for the 2nd straight month to a 4-month low. Japan money supply held steady in spite of BOJ's increasingly more aggressive efforts to reflate the economy.

- Among notable speakers, Japan Econ Min Ishihara continued to attribute recent gains in JPY to "external factors" while cheering the progress being made on the rate of inflation, adding the decision by the BOJ shows determination to end deflation. Ishihara added the decline in interest rates will eventually lead in a rise in CAPEX, but this requires time. Note that other reports were more skeptical of the BOJ decision to engineer recovery, and the associated risks of dislocation in govt fixed income and negative impact on the overall financial system are prevailing in Japan's trading sentiment today. Separate comments from Fin Min Aso suggested the govt is still paying close attention to FX rates, calling recent moves "volatile."

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- MXL: Reports Q4 $0.46 v $0.43e, R$98.9M v $99.0Me; +5.3% afterhours
- BSX: Confirms Medicare Will Cover WATCHMANLeft Atrial Appendage Closure Device; +3.6% afterhours
- GPS: Reports Q4 prelim $0.56-0.57 v $0.52e; R$4.39B v $4.47Be, Jan SSS -8% v -3.5%e; +3.3% afterhours
- RBC: Reports Q4 $1.17 v $1.12e, R$774M v $839Me; -1.3% afterhours
- FOXA: Reports Q2 $0.44 (adj) v $0.45e, R$7.38B v $7.42B y/y; -4.4% afterhours
- QLYS: Reports Q4 $0.21 v $0.17e, R$44.4M v $44.6Me; Guides initial FY16 $0.74-0.79 v $0.80e, R$195.6-198.6M v $200Me; -6.3% afterhours

Asia movers on news:
- Australia gold miners NCM +8.1%, EVN +6.2%
- Australia energy co's WPL -2.8%, STO -5.0%
- Japan banks Mizuho -5.7%, MUFJ -8.2%, Nomura -9.4%
- BRS.AU: Ferrovial said it will consider options on BRS; change adversely impacts valuation; -12.2%
- 4661.JP Raises admission prices by ¥500 or 7.2% to ¥7.4K effective Apr 1st - Nikkei; +2.8%

>>>US After Hours Summary: OI +4.5%, GPS +2.8%

After Hours Summary: OI +4.5%, GPS +2.8%

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance/SSS:  SSNI +13.0%, OI +4.5%, GPS +2.8%

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:  PSDV -9.1%, QLYS -6.7%, FOXA -2.5%, ONVO -2.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: PYPL -0.3% (disclosed resignation of James Barrese from his position as Senior Vice President, Payment Services and Chief Technology Officer, effective April 1, 2016

ZeroHedge : Gundlach: Bonds Won't Bottom Until Panic Sends VIX Above 40

Gundlach: Bonds Won't Bottom Until Panic Sends VIX Above 40
Over the past two years, Jeff Gundlach has been alternating between dispensing fire and brimstone, and doom and gloom. More importantly, he has also been right which explains why as his arch nemesis Pimco has been losing billions in AUM, Gundlach's DoubleLine has been getting bigger by the day.

Today, in another email exchange with Reuters, the DoubleLine chief stayed true to form: "credit fund bankruptcies are coming," said Gundlach, who shortly after this website, warned in December that the Federal Reserve will regret raising rates because of deteriorating financial conditions. "It's not a market to be flopping around in. The trends are relentless and powerful."

Gundlach also told Reuters that "clearly, weaker-than-hoped-for global growth is the major factor in this weakness" in credit markets. "That and the credit overload I have been warning about ad nauseum."

More troubling for the bulls who are unable to get the much needed close of trading panic flush as a result of daily last hour levitations is Gundlach's call that the VIX needs to surge above 40 before a bottom can be made in the high-yield junk bond market. Today the VIX closed up 11% to 26.00, a long way off from the panic and revulsion that would send it north of 40. Indeed, the last time the VIX rose above that level was on August 24, when the VIX calculation actually was broken for a brief period of time to avoid crushing countless VIX-linked investors.

Gundlach also writes that "this is not a trader's market" and instead "it is a freight train that you want to stay in sync with. There's too much order and belief in markets in spite of big losses."

He said equities are in a bear market, with the Nasdaq down 18.3 percent from its highs and "many, many, many stocks down over 25 percent from their highs." On Monday, the Dow Jones industrials average was down more than 200 points.

And if that wasn't scary enough, last Friday he told Bloomberg that it’s "frightening" to see major financial stocks trading at prices below their financial crisis levels.

"We see the price of major financial stocks, particularly in Europe, which are truly frightening,” Gundlach said. “Do you know that Credit Suisse, which is a powerhouse bank, their stock price is lower than it was in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009? Do you know that Deutsche Bank is at a lower price today than it was in 2009 when we were talking about the potential implosion of the entire global banking system?"

If you didn't before today, you do now after the giant German banks was forced to "go there" and actually address its liquidity sources and uses over the next two years in a public statement following today's near record plunge in the stock.

"The whole question for me is when am I going to buy enormous amounts of corporate credit, because it’s crystal clear that that’s the next opportunity that’s out there,” Gundlach said. “There’s plenty of things out there that will have 100 percent returns. It’s a whole question of: Don’t tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy it."

Today we know: the market needs to have an August 24 type capitulation for Gundlach to start waving it in.

Finally, on the topics of oil of muni bonds, Gundlach said that "there’s simply no bullish case for oil right now," and that while he’s considering buying corporate debt - but not before the abovementioned market panic - he said that he’s moving away from municipal bonds, which have become overpriced.

WSJ : Tech Stocks: Why the Selloff Could Get Worse


Tech Stocks: Why the Selloff Could Get Worse
The technology sector is getting buffeted on multiple fronts, and relief could be a long time coming

Dark clouds have descended on the tech sector. And while Punxsutawney Phil may say otherwise, a break may not be soon in coming.

A bruising selloff since the first of the year has cost the Nasdaq Composite all of its gains since late 2014, with the pain particularly acute in the riskier Internet and software sectors. The index is off 14% so far this year. The Nasdaq Internet Index has fallen 21%, and cloud stocks tracked by the BVP Cloud Index are off more than 31%. By contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off a more modest (even if still painful) 8%.

The selloff reflects an unsettled global economic and financial-market environment that is hitting tech stocks on three fronts.

First, in an era when U.S. companies at large have become steadily more dependent on their foreign operations for sales, tech companies’ overseas exposures stand out. Hewlett-Packard, for example, generates only about a third of its sales in the U.S, while Intel books less than a fifth of its sales domestically. As a result, many tech companies are taking unusually hard hits from economic weakness abroad. The dollar’s strength against other currencies—the greenback averaged 12% higher on the year on a trade-weighted basis versus other currencies in the fourth quarter—has made a bad situation even worse.

Second, worries about the global economic environment have prompted many companies to rein in capital spending and other investments. This can hurt the flow of new deals that is the lifeblood of software companies that sell cloud-based services. Tableau Software trimmed its full-year forecast last week, citing “softness” in business-tech spending. That sparked a huge selloff that cut Tableau’s market value by more than half and badly damaged many peers. Salesforce.com, Workday and Splunk—which will report results later this month—are off more than 20% in just the past two sessions.

Finally, there is the issue of price. Most cloud and Internet companies carry lofty valuations. Amazon.com is still more than 100 times forward earnings despite losing nearly 30% of its value since the first of the year. The Nasdaq Composite still carries a premium of nearly 24% to the S&P 500 on the same basis.

Now, the benign economic environment those valuations were predicated on has been put into question, while a global flight to safety has pushed investors away from risky bets.

With the tech sector’s earnings season still in full swing, it is possible that pending reports could help turn the tide for the sector. Cisco Systems is slated to report Wednesday, and that company often serves as a barometer for corporate-technology demand.

The problem is, tech’s earnings reports have actually gone pretty well so far, relative to reduced expectations. But that hasn’t stanched the bleeding.

About 65% of reporting tech companies have also exceeded analysts’ revenue targets, compared with 49% for the S&P. Not that it has done them much good: Microsoft and Google are down 11% and 12%, respectively, since their relatively strong reports.

In the changed market environment, the tech sector has caught a sudden chill. Spring, especially for companies with little in the way of profit, will be a long time in coming.

FT : Bloomberg says he is eyeing 2016 run for the White House

Bloomberg says he is eyeing 2016 run for the White House

Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire media owner and former New York mayor, has stated for the first time that he is considering a run for US president, a move that would dramatically reshape the 2016 race for the White House.
Speaking to the Financial Times, the founder of the eponymous financial information group criticised the quality of the debate in the ​presidential ​race. He said ​that ​he was “looking at all the options” when asked whether he was considering putting his name forward.

“I find the level of discourse and discussion distressingly banal and an outrage and an insult to the voters,” Mr Bloomberg said in an interview, before adding that the US public deserved “a lot better”.
His comments follow a New York Times report​ last month that said the billionaire had told advisers to draft a plan for a run as an independent candidate that could see him spending as much as $1bn of his​ estimated​ $39bn fortune.
The first confirmation by Mr Bloomberg, who has considered running for the Oval Office in previous elections, comes as Donald Trump, the bombastic billionaire running a populist​ campaign, dominates​ the Republicans’ 2016 race. The property mogul has a significant lead in polls of Republican voters ahead of Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire. In the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders, the self-declared socialist senator from Vermont, boasts a sizeable lead over Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state.
Mr Bloomberg told the FT that he would need to start putting his name on ballots across the US at the beginning of March. “I’m listening to what candidates are saying and what the primary voters appear to be doing,” he said.
His entry would radically affect the election, which has already been upended by the anti-establishment campaigns of Mr Trump and Mr Sanders. Many experts believe that Mr Bloomberg would help the Republican nominee by drawing more support from Democrats over Republicans because of his liberal stance on issues such as gun control and the environment.

Highlighting the steep climb that Mr Bloomberg ​would ​probably ​face, a poll conducted by his own news organisation and the Des Moines Register ahead of the Iowa caucuses found that only nine per cent of Republicans had a favourable view of him, while 17 per cent of likely Democratic voters in the state ​had a favourable opinion.
Mr Trump ​has said he would be “very happy” if Mr Bloomberg entered the race, while Mr Sanders ​has ​slammed the prospect, saying it would confirm that the US was “moving away from democracy to oligarchy”. ​
​​Mr Bloomberg reportedly also has reservations about the campaign of Mrs Clinton, who has dismissed the threat of his possible candidacy by arguing that he would only ​enter ​the race if she was not the Democratic nominee. But the strong challenge being posed by Mr Sanders raises the chances that the Democratic nominee will not be chosen by early March, the point at which Mr Bloomberg would need to make a decision about entering the race.

While experts believe that an independent candidate would struggle in a system that is heavily skewed to favour candidates from the two ​main ​parties, the 2016 race has already proved the danger of ​accepting conventional wisdom.
A year ago, most ​experts predicated that the race would see Mrs Clinton face Jeb Bush, the former Republican governor of Florida, or Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor. But Mr Walker ​dropped out of the race early, and Mr Bush is struggling to save his campaign as he languishes in fifth place in the New Hampshire polls after doing badly in Iowa.
Mr Bloomberg was speaking as he launched the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, which was created to improve the way companies report their exposure to climate change. He is the chair of the group, which was announced by Financial Stability Board chair Mark Carney at the Paris climate change summit.
Mr Bloomberg has taken an increasingly hands-on role at his company since leaving the mayor’s office in 2014.
He had been expected to pursue his philanthropic endeavours, such as his work fighting climate change and his push for tighter gun control legislation. But the former mayor grew restless and went back to work full time at the company he co-founded in 1981.
His return was followed by upheaval in the upper echelons of the financial information company, with Dan Doctoroff, a long-time confidant, among the first to leave.
Mr Doctoroff was Bloomberg’s chief executive, a role that Mr Bloomberg took himself. Several figures from the news and editorial side of the business have also left or stepped back, notably Matt Winkler, the bow tie-wearing father of the company’s news operation and Mr Bloomberg’s right-hand man for 25 years. He was replaced by John Micklethwait, the editor of The Economist.
The shake-up in editorial came as part of a greater focus on the company’s data terminals. Bloomberg is facing new competitors on multiple fronts, notably Symphony, a messaging service owned by some of Wall Street’s biggest banks, and low-cost operators, such as Money.net.