FT : France economy minister sends double Brexit warning to UK

France would relocate its migrant camp from Calais to Britain and roll out “a red carpet” for bankers fleeing London if the UK leaves the EU, according to Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister.
Speaking ahead of an Anglo-French summit, Mr Macron said the bilateral relationship could change abruptly in the event of a Brexit, including the creation of new obstacles to trade between the two countries.

Mr Macron said that Brexit could scupper a bilateral deal with France, known as the Le Touquet agreement, that allows Britain to carry out border controls — and keep unwanted migrants — on the French side of the Channel.
In an interview with the Financial Times, he also said he expected financial services workers in London to relocate to France once their institutions lost the “passport” rights that allow them to operate across the EU.
“The day this relationship unravels, migrants will no longer be in Calais and the financial passport would work less well,” Mr Macron said.
Echoing David Cameron’s invitation to French companies to relocate across the Channel when France raised taxes in 2012, Mr Macron said: “If I were to reason like those who roll out red carpets, I would say we might have some repatriations from the City of London.”
Mr Macron warned that Britain would lose full access to the single market if left the EU. “People deciding to leave the single market will not be able to secure the same terms.”
He added that the EU’s “collective energy would be spent on unwinding existing links, not re-creating new ones” if British voters rejected membership.
Mr Cameron was accused by Tory Eurosceptics of “scaremongering” when he claimed that the Calais “Jungle” camp could move across the Channel. Now a leading French minister has confirmed it could happen.
The prime minister is working with the French government, including President François Hollande, to co-ordinate a message aimed at persuading British voters they are safer within the EU.
Meeting in Amiens in northern France on Thursday, Mr Cameron and Mr Hollande will say that the “EU gives greater security and greater capacity to project power”. They will commit to a “relentless” battle against terrorism.
The two leaders will agree to a joint £1.5bn investment in a new phase of development for a military drone as well as agreeing a further exchange of information to combat terrorist attacks.
Pressure is mounting on the French government to prevent thousands of refugees fleeing wars and poverty from setting up base in makeshift camps before attempting to cross the Channel to the UK. French authorities began dismantling part of the so-called “jungle” this week, relocating migrants in nearby shipping containers. Politicians including Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader, and Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right chairman of the Nord Pas de Calais region, have requested the border be moved to Dover as part of a longer-term solution.

Mr Macron said the EU as a whole would be weakened as a military, diplomatic and economic powerhouse if the UK left. But whatever the outcome of the British referendum in June, he said the EU would need to reignite its integration process because the Brexit debate would have durably hurt the bloc’s unity. “The EU has no choice but to become a true military and diplomatic power, something it has been always reluctant to be, mostly by lack of ambition,” he said.
“If the UK decides to stay, we avoid the worst case scenario but we find ourselves in a situation where the UK will demand the implementation of the new terms it has negotiated with Brussels. Other countries may be tempted to do the same,” the minister said, pointing to the rise of anti-EU parties in France, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Germany.
Since 2008, the solidarity among EU members had been severely shaken by crises that did not originate in the bloc — the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the refugee crisis, said Mr Macron. But the solutions are through more risk sharing and co-operation, not a return to nationalistic policies, he insisted.
“It’s only at a European level that we can manage the sovereign debt risk or the banking risk,” Mr Macron said. “The refugees crisis shows we can’t be isolated from the world’s geopolitical troubles. It’s true that the handling of this crisis is appalling. But the response can only be a European one, not a national one, with a co-ordinated diplomacy and border controls.”
Mr Macron refused to blame Germany for acting unilaterally on refugees and energy, saying: “We could say the same of France about other matters.”
Brussels, however, is failing to protect European industries and jobs, he said. “Steelmaking is emblematic of this naivety: we ask our companies to restructure, we ask employees to work more for less money because there is overproduction but then we’re unable to defend them from cheaper Chinese imports,” he said. “We are insane.”

>>> US After Hours Summary: SMTC +11.5%, PSTG +4.1%, PQ -13.3%,


After Hours Summary: SMTC +11.5%, PSTG +4.1%, PQ -13.3%, HABT -10.5%, SUNE -11.7% following suspension of dividend

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:  SMTC +11.5%, PSTG +4.1%, DTSI +3.7%, CPE +3.6%, SKUL +3.1%, WB +2.9%, JOBS +2.2%, TDOC +1.7%.

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news:  IPI +3.6% (filed mixed securities shelf offering for an undisclosed amount), KOOL +2.1% (approved 1:20 reverse stock split effective March 4), BHP +1.7% (Samarco confirmed agreement with Brazilian authorities).

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: PQ -13.3%, HABT -10.5%, PCOM -4%, SINA -3.4%, PLPM -2.9%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news:  SUNE -11.7% (suspended dividends on preferred stock), BANC -4.5% (commenced a public offering of its common stock), TSLX -3.2% (commenced 5 mln share public offering), OPXA -2.1% (reduced workforce by ~30% ahead of phase 2 data expected in 4Q16).

WSJ : Dow, DuPont Dish on Their Pre-merger Speed Dating

Dow, DuPont Dish on Their Pre-merger Speed Dating


When Dow Chemical Chief Executive Andrew Liveris said last fall that “everyone is talking to everyone” in the agriculture sector about deals, he actually meant it.

In a sign of just how frenzied a recent round of consolidation in the industry has been, Dow and DuPont were separately holding talks about other big deals even as they raced toward their roughly $60 billion combination late last year, according to a regulatory filing.

DuPont, under both former chief executive Ellen Kullman and current leader Edward Breen, talked with Syngenta about buying all of the Swiss pesticide and seed company or merging its agricultural business with DuPont’s.

While the filing doesn’t identify Syngenta by name, instead referring to it as Company 1, the details and discussions with people close to the deal help make the identity clear. The proxy filing, part of an effort to win shareholder approval for the deal, says that unnamed company separately worked with Goldman Sachs Group on another transaction and that Ms. Kullman flew to Geneva for a meeting. The company is defined as “a large publicly-traded company in the agricultural sciences industry.”

Syngenta had been working with Goldman bankers on its rejection of an unsolicited $46 billion bid from Monsanto The Wall Street Journal has also previously reported Syngenta and DuPont engaged in talks about merging their agricultural businesses — but it wasn’t previously known DuPont had explored the possibility of buying the company outright. (Earlier this year, China National Chemical Corp. agreed to buy Syngenta for $43 billion.)

Dow’s Mr. Liveris also flew to Switzerland for a meeting with an unnamed large company to discuss merging their agricultural businesses, the filing says. (It couldn’t be confirmed that that’s a reference to Syngenta too.) While representatives of the two sides held several talks, they remained preliminary, the filing says.

Dow also held talks with a second unnamed company over a similar tie-up that didn’t end until the Journal reported that Dow and DuPont were nearing their agreement to merge on Dec. 8, the filing says.

On Dec. 1, Messrs. Breen and Liveris told their respective boards that their combination, followed by a three way split, was the best option.

But before they got there, plenty of other talks were held between both sides and various other companies, with meetings everywhere from Switzerland to Arizona, amid falling prices and stiff competition in the industry.

In late August, DuPont’s board discussed four potential transactions: acquiring “Company 1,” combining its agricultural business with Company 1, buying Dow’s agriculture business, or a merger-of-equals with Dow.

The next day, August 27, Ms. Kullman met with the chairman of Company 1 in Geneva and discussed the chances of a deal. Michel Demare is chairman of Syngenta.

On Oct. 5 amid pressure from activist investor Nelson Peltz, DuPont announced Ms. Kullman would retire and Mr. Breen would take over. He would quickly pick up her deal discussions.

Mr. Breen met with Mr. Liveris six days later. As the Journal has reported, Mr. Breen had joked he didn’t have time to find a bathroom before Mr. Liveris called.

At the end of October, Mr. Breen, keeping his options open, set up a meeting for Nov. 12 with Syngenta in New York. At the meeting, the filing says, Mr. Demare indicated a deal seemed unlikely.

Meanwhile, a second group, aptly named Company 2 and described as a “large, publicly-traded company in the chemicals industry,” had a meeting with Mr. Breen later than month in New Jersey.

The day after the Journal reported that Dow and DuPont were nearing a deal, the chairman of Company 2 called Mr. Breen to ask again about a deal. He then sent a letter asking for due diligence.

He was too late. Dow and DuPont announced their merger the next day.

The filing also shows the merger will be a nice windfall for the banks advising on it. Former Citigroup banker Michael Klein’s boutique bank will collect more than $27 million, as will Lazard and Morgan Stanley, for their roles advising Dow. Goldman and Evercore Partners are each being paid $40 million, the filing shows.

>>> US Close Dow+0.20% S&P+0.41% Nasdaq+0.29% Russell+1.06%

Closing Market Summary: Oil and Financials Lead Rally

The stock market ended its Wednesday affair on a higher note as investors focused on rate hike implications from a better-than-expected reading of the ADP National Employment Report and rising oil prices. Meanwhile, strong sector leadership from the financial group (+0.9%) helped fuel today's advance. The S&P 500 (+0.4%) managed to outperform both the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%).

Before the opening bell, investors digested the February ADP Employment Change report, which indicated an increase of 214,000 over the past month (consensus 190,000). This above-consensus reading added to the recent slew of positive data that may lend itself to rationalizing a potential rate hike sooner than the market currently expects. Additionally, this report precedes the more influential Employment Situation Report, which will be released on Friday.

Separately, the Department of Energy's weekly inventory report showed a larger-than-expected crude inventory build (10.4 million barrel build; est 3.6 million). Despite the bearish reading oil managed to rise sharply after the report before ending its day off its best level. WTI crude ended its pit session higher by 0.5% at $34.57/bbl.

The positive move in oil helped the commodity-sensitive energy space (+2.5%) top the leaderboard as telecom services (+1.1%) and the financial sector (+0.9%) followed. Meanwhile, heavyweights health care (+0.2%) and technology (+0.2%) ended their day off their lows.

In the energy space, independent oil and gas names managed to top the leaderboard. On that note, Anadarko Petroleum (APC 42.65, +2.54) managed to climb 6.3% while ConocoPhillips (COP 36.49, +2.03) advanced 5.9%. Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM 82.70, +1.42) gained 1.8% after the company stated, at its analyst meeting, that it could fund new capital projects as well as maintain its dividend.

Economically-sensitive financials (+0.9%) likely benefited from potential increases in their earnings prospects as the fed fund futures market estimates the likelihood of a rate increase at the FOMC's December meeting at 63.0%. Meanwhile, the sector continues to rebound from a difficult start to the year. On that note, Citigroup (C 42.22, +0.95) and Bank of America (BAC 13.41, +0.27) climbed a respective 2.3% and 2.1% today, but remain down 18.4% and 20.3%, respectively, for the year.

The health care space (+0.2%) ended above its flat line as biotechnology outperformed. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 268.12, +2.85) gained 1.1%.

The Federal Reserve released its March Beige Book, which described overall economic activity across the twelve Fed Districts as expanding at a "modest" or "moderate" pace. Consumer spending increased in the majority of districts while manufacturing activity was described as flat for the most part. With regard to wages and inflation, the Beige Book described price levels as rising slightly while wage growth was described as ranging from "flat" to "strong".

The Treasury complex traded narrowly lower throughout today's session. The yield on the 10-yr note ended higher by one basis point at 1.84%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (98.18, -0.17) tumbled as the dollar/yen pair ended the day lower by 0.6% at 113.39.

Today's participation fell in-line with the recent average with more than 1.065 billion shares changing hands at the NYSE floor. 

Today's economic data included the weekly MBA Index, the February ADP Employment Change report, and the Fed's Beige Book for March:

  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Index showed a seasonally adjusted decrease of 4.8% in mortgage applications. 
  • The ADP National Employment Report showed a 214,000 increase in February (consensus 190,000) while the January reading was revised lower to 193,000 from 205,000.
    • The ADP reading precedes Friday's more influential government Employment Report, which is expected to show a 190K increase in Nonfarm Payrolls, greater than last month's 151K increase.

Tomorrow's economic data will include the 7:30 ET release of the Challenger Job Cuts report for February. Meanwhile, weekly initial claims (consensus 270k), Q4 Productivity (consensus -3.3%), and Unit Labor Cost data (consensus +4.7%) will be released at 8:30 ET. Finally, January Factory Orders (consensus +2.0%) and ISM Services (consensus +53.1) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET. 

  • Russell 2000 -6.3% YTD
  • Nasdaq -6.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones -3.0% YTD
  • S&P 500 -2.8% YTD

>>> US Gapping Up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
: EVDY +25.5%, FOR +18.9%, GWRE +10.8%, ANF +9%, NPTN +8.7%, CHUY +6.7%, DAR +6.7%, BV +3.2%, ROST +1.8%, BOBE +1.4%, (light volume), AVGR +0.5%, (also received 510(k) clearance from the FDA for an enhanced version of its Pantheris lumivascular atherectomy system)

M&A news: CKP +27% (to be acquired by CCL Industries for $10.15/share in cash, or ~$443 mln), JMI +18% (to be acquired by ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) for ~$7.14 per share)

Select EU financial related names showing strength: SAN +2.9%, PUK +2.4%, RIO +2.4%, DB +2.1%, BBVA +1.8%, ING +1.7%


Other news: EYEG +12.6% (receives an additional development milestone from Valeant (VRX) for the development and commercialization of the Company's EGP-437 combination product in the field of uveitis), REXX +12.1% (announces a new $175 mln joint exploration & development agreement in the Moraine East & Warrior North Operated Areas ), PRKR +10.1% (light volume; Parkervision files a petition with the Supreme Court requesting a review of the decision of the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in ParkerVision v. Qualcomm ), OCN +8.1% (cont vol pre-mkt), ZNGA +7.4% (appoints Frank Gibeau as CEO effective March 7; Co-founder & current CEO Mark Pincus will serve as Executive Chairman ), CVO +6.8% (light volume; announces five-year engagement with National Register Publishing), AWK +4.9% (American Water Works to replace CONSOL Energy in the S&P 500), CSX +3.1% (reports that CSX rejected a takeover approach from Canadian Pacific in January), CRC +2.3% (following 50%+ move higher), JD +1.7% (cont momentum, Shanghai +4% overnight), BABA +1.7% (cont momentum, Shanghai +4% overnight), BMRN +1.6% (granted orphan drug designation by the FDA for BMN 270 for the treatment of patients with hemophilia A), MOMO +1.2% (Shanghai +4% overnight)

Analyst comments: HABT +3.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen), MELI +0.9% (upgraded to Hold from Reduce at HSBC Securities), AMZN +0.8% (initiated with an Outperform at BMO)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
: BGFV -15.3%, (also increases quarterly cash dividend by 25% to $0.125/share ), GBSN -14.7%, (also files for 85 mln share common stock offering by certain selling stockholders upon the conversion of senior secured convertible notes issued in the note financing), NWPX -9.9%, (light volume), ICAD -7.4%, (ticking lower), MON -5.1%, LOGI -2.8%, TIVO -2.6%, SQM -1.5%, EPIQ -1.2%, (light volume), VEEV -1.1%, PPL -0.9%, TPUB -0.9%, ASNA -0.6%

M&A news: BUD -2.1% (to sell SABMiller's (SBMRY) 49% interest in China Resources Snow Breweries to China Resources Beer for $1.6 bln)

Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -5.2%, WTI -3.7%, TOT -1.5%, RDS.A -0.9%

Other news: WFT -5.5% (upsizes and prices 100 mln ordinary shares at $5.65 per share; offering upsized from 80 mln prior), COT -5.2% (Cott prices 11.1 mln common shares at $11.80/share on a bought deal basis), CHK -4.7% (Chesapeake Energy former CEO Aubrey McClendon indicted on conspiracy charges, according to Bloomberg; issues statement following Indictment of former CEO Aubrey McClendon, says 'does not expect to face criminal prosecution or fines relating to this matter'), CNX -3.6% (American Water Works to replace CONSOL Energy in the S&P 500), SRCL -2.1% ( files to delay its 10-K), FRT -1.9% (prices public offering of 1 mln shares of common stock at $150/share), GLPG -1.3% (Galapagos NV receives transparency notice from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), J&J holding's fall below 5% threshold)

Analyst comments: JOY -2.8% (downgraded to Sell form Hold at Axiom Capital), CVGW -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson)

(BI) Germany could be Europe's next big problem

This is as good as it gets for Germany and Europe. 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/germany-is-the-new-piig-2016-2

Previously, it was the debt of the eurozone's peripheral countries that was of concern to the markets.
But in an interview with Business Insider, Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman proclaimed that Europe now has a much bigger problem: Germany.
And at the heart of the looming issue for Germany and Europe is the Italian banking system.
"[Problems in Italian banks are] going to spill over into the Netherlands, it's going to spill over into Germany," Friedman said. "Germany is the new PIIG. Germany depends on exports and its markets are drying up."
The PIIGS economies — Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain — were the main concerns during the European debt crisis of 2011 and 2012. And with those crises seemingly having passed and Europe moving back towards a path to economic stability, Germany has been a big winner with its economy as strong as its been since re-unification and an unemployment rate down to 4.5%.
Germany has, however, been running a structural trade surplus underpinned by a weak euro with its trade surplus hitting a record $23.9 billion in June. And Friedman thinks Germany's export well is about to run dry.
Trading Economics


Friedman believes that the problems in the Italian banking system are going to take Germany — the strongest economy in the eurozone — down with it.
Data released in late-2015 showed non-performing loans at Italian banks totaled €300 billion, 17.3% of outstanding loans.
That is a massive number considering the average for the euro zone is 6.8%, and Germany's NPL's are at just 2.3%.
Andy Kiersz / Business Insider


According to Friedman, this is a big deal because Italy is the 4th largest economy in Europe and the 8th largest economy in the world. Italy's home to the largest banking system in Eastern Europe and there's a lot of inter-connectivity in play.
For example, Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank, has an enormous amount of exposure to Italy, and so does the rest of Europe. Ultimately Friedman thinks it will be Germany that has to save Italy.
And that will cost a lot of money.
"It's not the PIIGS one should worry about," Friedman said. "Germany hasn’t even begun falling yet. And when Germany falls, and it will, that’s when the panic begins to set in."
Deutsche Bank