FT : Hedge fund closures return to crisis highs

Hedge fund closures return to crisis highs

More hedge funds closed their doors in 2015 than at any time since the financial crisis, according to new research, as turbulent markets dragged down the industry’s performance.
Last year was the worst year for liquidations since 2009, with 979 funds closing, up from 864 in 2014, according to data from Hedge Fund Research. The fourth quarter of 2015 also saw the fewest new hedge funds starting up since 2009, with just 183 openings compared with 269 in the third quarter.

The figures capture a period in which many of the industry’s marquee names suffered significant losses. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite index fell 0.9 per cent last year, HFR data show. December saw a flurry of funds converting into family offices, including Michael Platt’s BlueCrest and Doug Hisch’s Seneca Capital, or shutting entirely as Lucidus Capital Partners did following redemptions.
Unnerved by jerky markets, hedge fund clients became fearful of risk and less patient with poor returns in the second half of the year, according to Kenneth Heinz, HFR’s president, who said many started asking for their money back from lagging funds.
“Investors have become increasingly discriminating in their capital allocations, and the environment for launching a new fund continues to be extremely competitive,” he said.

The top 20 per cent of funds by assets received about 80 per cent of all new money last year, the prime brokerage group at Barclays found in an analysis of HFR data.
So far, this year does not appear to be any kinder for the industry.
Between market losses and redemptions, assets in hedge funds fell by $64.7bn in January, bringing total money in the industry below $3tn for the first time since crossing that threshold in May 2014, according to data provider eVestment. Redemptions in January were the worst since January 2009

In February — normally a big month for inflows — about $3bn of new money trickled in, compared with $18.6bn last year, eVestment data show. Investment losses dragged down total assets by almost another $20bn to $2.95tn.
The strategy that has been winning the year so far is dictated by computers: systematic hedge funds that surf trends using financial models and algorithms have dominated the lists of the best-performing funds.
Trend-following and quantitative specialists, often known as commodity trading advisers due to their legal set-up, tend to profit when markets have a clear direction. They have lost money in four of the past five years.

Less competition can help the survivors: JPMorgan’s prime brokerage found in a recent survey that more than half of respondents said “crowding” was the biggest reason behind last year’s underperformance, driven by a record number of hedge funds chasing too few opportunities.
Instead of adding money to hedge funds, many asset allocators plan to recycle capital, moving from one manager to another, with strategies focused on volatility proving the most popular, JPMorgan said.

(CS) Global Equity strat : Cyclicals: Stay benchmark, but downgrade mining

GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: Dispersion within cyclicals has risen to levels which on the last two occasions marked a turning point in their performance relative to defensives (2002 and 2008). While we remain benchmark European cyclicals, we are overweight domestic European cyclicals. The European domestic cycle still looks more robust relative to consensus than that of the US/China (with domestic demand lagging the US by 11% since 2011) and we believe that the euro will not weaken. At the same time we are underweight expensive defensives and take mining to underweight from benchmark.

Full Note attached

>>> Mondelez International sells Portugal unit to Cerealto for undisclosed sum -

Mondelez International sells Portugal unit to Cerealto for undisclosed sum
Mondelez International has sold its Portuguese unit to Cerealto of Spain for an undisclosed sum, reported Diario Economico. Sources told the paper that Mondelez had previously announced the closure of its biscuit production factory at Mem Martins in Portugal with a transfer of production to the Czech Republic.

However, the French group has opted to keep its Portuguese plant in production and sell it to Cerealto, the report said giving no values for the transaction.

Diario Economico

Le Temps : Sunrise passe en mains allemandes

Sunrise passe en mains allemandes

Propriété d'un fonds d'investissement luxembourgeois depuis cinq ans, l'opérateur téléphonique est acquis par Freenet, le premier réseau mobile virtuel d'Allemagne

Les turbulences sur le marché suisse des télécoms s’accroissent. Jeudi soir, Sunrise a annoncé que le fonds CVC Capital Partners a vendu sa participation dans l'entreprise, de 23 %. Sunrise passe dans le giron de Freenet, principal opérateur de réseau mobile virtuel en Allemagne, lequel devient actionnaire majoritaire.

L'un des grands fonds d'investissement au monde, basé au Luxembourg, CVC a pris le contrôle de Sunrise il y a cinq ans. L'opérateur n'a cessé de se restructurer, comme les autres acteurs des télécoms helvétiques. En septembre 2015, Sunrise s’est séparé de 160 employés. Le groupe en compte 1700, en baisse de 9,3% sur un an.

Lourdes pertes en 2015

En 2015, Sunrise a perdu 113 millions de francs, et 115 millions en 2014. S'agissant de l'année passée, les responsables de la société ont argué que sans des frais exceptionnels liés à l'entrée en bourse et à l'achat de fréquences, le bilan aurait été bénéficiaire de 45 millions.

Freenet, issu de Mobilcom, qu'il a absorbé

Issu d'une division avec Mobilcom, Freenet a par la suite fusionné avec sa maison mère, puis absorbé Debitel. L'entreprise revendique 12 millions de clients sur le mobile en Allemagne, un chiffre d'affaire de 3,1 milliards d'euros, et elle a annoncé un EBIDTA pour 2015 de 370 millions (voir son rapport, en PDF). Elle emploie 4600 salariés. Le CEO de Freenet Christoph Vilanek, ainsi que le CFO Joachim Preisig, entrent au conseil de Sunrise.

Sunrise a récemment indiqué que son directeur et son président quitteront leurs postes cette année. Elle s'illustre aussi ces temps par une offensive contre UPC Cablecom.

Ces derniers mois, Salt, l'ex-Orange repris par le groupe de Xavier Niel (Free, en France), a également défrayé la chronique. Le directeur Johan Andsjö a quitté le navire après un règne de moins de trois ans, et les départs se sont succédé depuis l'automne 2015. Passé par le Boston Consulting Group, Andreas Schönenberger a accédé à la direction, tandis que la maison mère a indiqué vouloir reprendre la compagnie en mains.

>>> US After Hours Summary: ADBE +6% following earnings; CPGX +5.3%, T


After Hours Summary: ADBE +6% following earnings; CPGX +5.3%, TRP -4.1% following merger news

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:  SCVL +7.1%, ADBE +6.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news:  AERI +8.2% (Based on the Rhopressa QD safety and efficacy data reviewed by the Company to date the Company believes that product candidate RhopressaTM QD continues to have significant potential), CPGX +5.3% (to be acquired by TransCanada (TRP) for $25.50/share in cash, or ~$13 bln), GVP +4.1% (increases backlog by 60% with new contract)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:  ARO -47.9% (also announces exploration of strategic alternatives)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: CBAY -12.9% (releases top line results from Phase 2 trial of MBX-8025), TRP -4.1% (To acquire Columbia Pipeline (CPGX) for $25.50/share in cash, or ~$13 bln), PBA -3.2% (to acquire sour natural gas processing assets from Paramount Resources (PRMRF) for ~C$556 mln)

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: China property price rebound continues; PBoC sets Yuan at 2016 highs

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA FEB PROPERTY PRICES M/M: FALL IN 15 OUT OF 70 CITIES VS 24 PRIOR; Y/Y: FALL IN 37 OUT OF 70 CITIES V 45 PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: +0.9% V -3.2% PRIOR
- (KR) South Korea Feb PPI Y/Y: -3.4% v -3.3% prior; 19th consecutive decline
- (US) NORTH AMERICA FEB SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.05 V 1.08 PRIOR; 2nd straight month above parity
- (CL) CHILE CENTRAL BANK (BCCH) LEAVES OVERNIGHT RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%; AS EXPECTED

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -1.3%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +1.9%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Jun S&P500 flat at 2,030

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold flat at $1,265/oz, Apr crude oil +0.3% at $40.30/brl, May copper +1.0% at $2.31/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 11.9 tonnes to 807.1 tonnes; 3rd straight increase; highest since July 2014
- USD/CNY: *(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.4628 V 6.4961 PRIOR; strongest setting since Dec 16th
- (CN) PBOC to inject CNY110B in 7-day reverse repos; Injects net CNY85B this week v drained CNY205B prior
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥420B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥260B in 10-25yr JGBs, ¥180B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr, and ¥1.75T in T-bills
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$800M in 5.75% 2022 Bonds; avg yield: 2.30%; bid-to-cover: 3.04x

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equity markets are generally higher with the exception of a selloff in Tokyo, where sentiment was soured by more Yen strength in the wake of a dovish FOMC statement overnight. Shanghai Composite is leading the main indices, helped by continued strength in the property space along with a very firm Yuan fix by the PBoC - also in response to continued selling of the greenback. In commodities, gold has consolidated overnight gains but WTI crude oil concluded pit trading above $40/brl for the first time since early December. In FX, USD/JPY sold off about 60 pips to 110.80s but recovered above 111.20 headed toward close. AUD/USD traded 30pips on both sides of 0.7650, while NZD/USD traded about 20pips on both sides of 0.6750.

- China property prices m/m rose for the 10th month at 0.4% v 0.3% prior, while y/y price increase was 5th straight at 3.6% - well above 2.5% of the prior month. Out of 70 cities featured in survey, prices fell y/y in 37 out of 45 prior and rose in 47 v 38 prior. Recovery in the property sector was also evidenced in strong FY15 earnings out of China Overseas Land, with profits growing 22.5% and Rev up 7%. Separately in China, PBoC paced post-FOMC USD weakness with the strongest Yuan fix since Dec 2015 along with an open market operation of over CNY100B, bringing the weekly net injection to CNY85B.

- With cracks in Abenomics becoming more evident, a Japanese press report speculated the cabinet might consider delaying the 2nd round of consumption tax increase set for Apr 2017 by another 1-2 years. Subsequent comments from cabinet spokesperson Suga denied that consideration is taking place. Recall just this week BOJ Gov Kuroda said the next round of sales tax increase would have only half the impact as the first, which Fin Min Aso reiterated his opposition to delaying the hike. Today, Fin Min Aso also remarked the govt is closely watching FX market, with JPY strength accelerating since the dovish FOMC statement this week. BOJ policy meeting minutes from January, when the central bank first announced negative interest rates, revealed that all members believe that negative rates can be taken deeper if needed and most members noted risks from the rise in global market volatility to business sentiment in Japan.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- SCVL: Reports Q4 $0.21 v $0.14e, R$233.7M v $233Me (2 est); +7.1% afterhours
- ADBE: Reports Q1 $0.66 v $0.60e, R$1.38B v $1.33Be; To raise FY16 guidance; +6.0% afterhours
- CPGX: Acquired by TransCanada for $25.50/shr for $13B in all-cash deal; +5.3% afterhours
- JPM: Authorize $1.9B share buyback increase (0.9% market cap); +0.9% afterhours
- CBAY: Announces positive Pilot Phase 2 Clinical Study results of MBX-8025 in patients with Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia; -7.1% afterhours
- ARO: Reports Q4 -$0.14 v -$0.15e, R$498M v $521Me; authorizes management to explore strategic alternatives; -43.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer staples: DaChan Food Asia 3999.HK -1.3%(guidance)
- Financials: Bank of Jinzhou 416.HK +3.3% (guidance); Japan Post Bank 7182.JP -0.4% (rejects workers request for base rise); Cheung Kong Holdings 1.HK +1.0% (FY15 result); Cheung Kong Property Holdings 1113.HK -4.6% (FY15 result); FlexiGroup FXL.AU +2.5% (shortly increase guidance)
- Industrials: Hankook Tire Worldwide Co 000240.KR -0.9% (Q4 result)
- Technology: Tencent 700.HK +3.2% (Q4 result); Pegatron Corp 4938.TW -1.4% (FY15 result); MediaTek 2454.TW +1.0% (Q2 result speculation); Toshiba Corporation 6502.JP +2.8% (to conduct stress test to determine whether Westinghouse writedown is needed)
- Materials: Aluminum Corporation of China 601600.CN +3.0% (FY15 result); Rio Tinto RIO.AU +1.9% (CEO to retire)
- Energy: Kunlun Energy Co 135.HK -1.6% (FY15 result)
- Healthcare: Primary Healthcare PRY.AU -1.2% (China's Jangho Group discloses stake)
- Telecom: Telstra Corp. TLS.AU -0.7% (network outage)

>>> US Close Dow+0.90% S&P+0.66% Nasdaq+0.23% Russell+1.56%

Closing Market Summary: Industrials and Materials Lead Indices Higher

The stock market ended Thursday's session up 0.7%. The gain itself was not a major gain, yet today's trading action was notable as the S&P 500 got back to the unchanged mark for the year (and even slightly positive) during the session. Some late-day selling interest knocked the S&P back into red figures for the year, but only by a slim margin (-0.2%).

Today's trading remained focused on the latest policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as investors maintained their risk-on disposition. Meanwhile, supportive conditions from a weaker dollar and the resulting rally in commodities also contributed to today's advance.

Equity indices opened their day modestly lower as global bourses digested Wednesday's decision from the FOMC to leave the fed funds rate unchanged and to lower the projected glide path for future increases. Despite the dovish tone, foreign markets ended mostly lower as the decision also emphasized uncertain conditions involving global economic and financial developments.

The risk-off posture ended within the first hour of trading as a rally in dollar-denominated commodities bolstered the broader market.

Both oil and gold benefited from a tumble in the greenback as the dollar slipped in the wake of traders re-thinking their policy divergence trades. WTI crude ended its day higher by 4.0% at $40.66/bbl while gold jumped 2.9% to finish at $1,265.10/ozt.

The commodity-sensitives materials (+2.3%) and energy (+1.4%) sectors were standouts for most of today's session, yet they had ample company as every sector, with the exception of the health care sector (-1.1%), ended in positive territory.

A rally in the industrials sector (+2.0%) was instrumental in lending support to the broader market, along with the outperformance of the heavily-weighted financial sector (+1.2%). The industrials benefited from logistics company FedEx (FDX 161.34, +17.07), which rallied 11.8% following a third quarter earnings beat. Additionally, while Caterpillar (CAT 75.90, +1.56) struggled initially after issuing a first quarter sales and earnings warning, it soon reversed course as investors took some comfort in the fact that Caterpillar also reaffirmed its full year sales and earnings guidance.

The heavily-weighted financial sector displayed some early weakness but managed to rebound as money-center banks recovered from their session lows, helped in part by the rally in the commodities space that lessened some of the related angst surrounding banks' loan exposure to embattled commodity companies. Investment banks provided added sector leadership with Morgan Stanley (MS 25.85, +0.69) rallying 2.7%.

The countercyclical health care sector (-1.1%) was a weak spot, but still ended well off its session low (-2.0%). A bounce in the biotechnology pace helped the sector pare its losses. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 247.09, -3.11) tumbled as much as 3.3% today before ending down 1.2%. The weakness in the health care space was broad based, though, as Merck (MRK 51.59, -0.35) and fellow Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH 124.53, -0.37) ended at the bottom of the price-weighted average.

The yield on the 10-yr note traded down to 1.88% (-3 bps) in early action, but lost some swagger as the stock market began to extend its gains and settled at 1.90%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%) finished ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.7%) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+0.2%). With today's action, the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered positive territory for the year (+0.3%). Notably, despite the bullish bias, today's trading volume was still lower than average with 1.012 billion shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Today's economic data included weekly initial claims, March Philadelphia Fed Survey, Q4 Current Account Balance, February's Leading Indicators, and the JOLTS Job Opening Report for January: 

  • Initial claims for the week ending March 12 rose by 7,000 to 265,000 (consensus 266,000). With few exceptions along the way, initial claims have basically been between 250,000 and 300,000 since July 2014.
    • Today's report highlights the fact that initial claims have been below 300,000 for 54 straight weeks, which is the longest streak since 1973.
    • There were no special factors influencing the latest initial claims reading, which bumped the four-week moving average to 268,000 from 267,000.
  • Continuing claims for the week ending March 5 were 2.235 million, an increase of 8,000 from the prior week's revised level of 2.227 million (from 2.225 million).
    • The four-week moving average for continuing claims decreased by 9,250 to 2.243 million, which is the lowest it has been since the week of January 9, 2016.
  • The Philadelphia Fed Index checked in at 12.4 for March versus -2.8 for February. That was much better than the consensus estimate of -1.4 and the first positive reading in seven months.
    • A number above zero for this particular index denotes expansion in manufacturing activity.
    • The positive reading for March then is a welcome sight, although it may perhaps only be a function of the lengthy streak of contraction in the region that spurred the rebound in March.
    • We'll learn more with the April reading if this was simply a one-month rebound from depressed conditions or the start perhaps of a lengthier expansion.
    • The improvement in March was spurred by large increases in the new orders index, which jumped to 15.7 from -5.3, and the shipments index, which surged to 22.1 from 2.5.
    • The unfilled orders index also showed some notable improvement, moving to -1.9 from -12.7, yet it is still indicative of contraction, albeit at a slower pace. 
    • Firms continued to report an overall decline in inventories, with that particular index moving to -12.7 from -17.1. The number of employees index also remained negative, but improved to -1.1 from -5.0.
    • The Prices Paid Index followed a similar course, checking in at -0.9 versus -2.2 for February.
    • Notably, respondents' six-month outlook picked up sharply, rising to 28.8 from 17.3 in February. That is the highest reading in four months.
  • The fourth quarter current account balance narrowed to -$125.3 billion (consensus -$116.0 billion) from a downwardly revised -$129.9 billion (from -$124.1 billion).
  • The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.1% in February (consensus 0.2%) after declining 0.2% in January and 0.3% in December. For the six-month period ending in February, the leading economic index increased just 0.3% versus 2.0% during the previous six months.
    • The bump up in February was led by positive contributions from initial claims (0.18 percentage points) and the yield spread (0.16 percentage points).
    • Small contributions were made by the leading credit index (0.04 percentage points) and manufacturers's new orders for consumer goods and materials (0.02 percentage points); otherwise, all other components made negative contributions or no contribution at all. The biggest drag on the February reading was building permits, which subtracted 0.1 percentage points.
    • Separately, the Coincident Index also increased 0.1% in February while the Lagging Index increased 0.4%.
  • The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings increased to 5.541 million from a revised 5.281 million (from 5.607 million) in December.

Tomorrow's economic data will be limited to the University of Michigan preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index for March, which will be released at 10:00 ET. 

  • Nasdaq Composite -4.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -4.0% YTD
  • S&P 500 -0.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones +0.3% YTD

(JPM) Momentum Crash, Central Bank Convergence and Positioning

Momentum Crash

In our reports in December and January, we called for Momentum assets to underperform Value assets. We argued that this will happen on account of record valuation spreads, and record level of position crowding across many types of investors. We believed a convergence of central bank policies and macro trends across the globe, and Q1 seasonality, could serve as likely catalysts for this reversal. As a part of this convergence trade we called for higher prices of Oil, Gold, Emerging Markets and Value stocks, and lower prices for momentum assets such as USD or momentum stocks. These moves started to materialize, with Value assets outperforming momentum assets, on average by ~15% YTD (e.g. see the table of 30 momentum and value assets in our Outlook and our last update). In addition to this asset allocation view, we have argued for a sharp pullback of Momentum stocks (e.g. Momentum long-short portfolios, see here and here) which we identified as being in a ‘Macro-Momentum Bubble’. The crash of the Momentum long-short portfolio happened in early February and again in early March with outperformance of Value over Momentum long-short portfolios of ~40% YTD (see figure below). To put this in perspective, March 2nd to 7th the momentum portfolio sold off for 4 consecutive days by 4, 4, 3, and 4 standard deviations (resulting in a weekly move of 6 sigma). This was followed by a one-day 7 sigma momentum bounce back, but this still left momentum stocks down more than 20%

for the year, and 40% behind value portfolio. This move was comparable to the quant meltdown in August 2007 (starting 8/8/2007, the momentum long-short portfolio sold off by 5 and 4 standard deviations in 2 consecutive days, followed by a 6 standard deviation bounce-back). While we know that returns of quant portfolios are far from normally distributed, the early-March factor returns are extraordinary large. Figure 1 below shows daily returns (in standard deviations) of a momentum portfolio YTD. Once can see early February moves (4, 3, and 2 sigma, and a 4 sigma bounce), as well as early March moves (4, 4, 3, 4 sigma, and a 7 sigma bounce).