>>> HOT/MAR - Thoughts

HOT - $88.72 total value of Anbang proposal, (including IILG close price of $13.93 at 0.4289 ratio), an 8.3% premium to HOT/MAR deal which was worth $81.89 at Thursday close. HOT/MAR deal was valued ~$85.50 based on MAR closing price of $73.16 at 3/18/16 close ; MAR stock price has been under pressure since announcing amended DA on 3/21. Making up $7/share gap with cash would push P/F debt leverage (2017E EBITDA with $250M synergies) to 3.3x from 2.2x MAR standalone (2016E EBITDA). 5% deal debt interest rate would make transaction 4.5% dilutive (P/F $4.21 EPS) to MAR 2017E standalone $4.41 EPS.

 

MAR may bump, but can no longer say that deal is accretive unless they find even more savings. $300M synergies is 2.5% dilutive (P/F $4.30 EPS), 4.5% deal interest rate reduces that to 1.5% dilutive (P/F $4.34 EPS). That assumes MAR matches Anbang proposal.

 

Not that Anbang has unlimited funding, but they have a deep pocket and real estate is a hard asset and has cash flow (i.e. the hotel business) to support the investment, and is long term in nature (to match the insurance side of the equation).

 

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>>> FCC requests waiver on immediate debt payment commitments from banks until

FCC requests waiver on immediate debt payment commitments from banks until June

FCC has requested a waiver on immediate debt commitments until June soon after raising EUR 709m from a capital increase, Expansion reported citing unidentified sources. The company expects to receive in April EUR 83m from the sale of its motorways unit Globalvia, the Spanish-language paper noted.

Financial sources told Expansion that the waiver being sought is linked to debt payments as per covenants related to divestitures.

FCC’s gross debt amounts to EUR 7bn, that generates costs of EUR 550m. Most maturities are due from 2018, but this year FCC faces maturities of around EUR 1.4bn, or 20% of the total, according to the report. The total includes debt linked to its cement division Portland Valderrivas, which is itself in talks to refinance a EUR 822m syndicated loan before June, the paper said.

According to the report’s sources, FCC’s key lenders are six of Spain's largest banks and negotiations are led by BBVA.

FCC is the target of a EUR 7.6 per share takeover bid from the Mexican investor Carlos Slim via his vehicle Inversora Carso, that holds a 37% stake in the group. Slim intends to delist Portland Valderrivas with a EUR 6 per share offer to minority shareholders.

In a separate item Expansion said that FCC is also analysing the value of assets for disposal. FCC owns several motorway concessions it could sell if an attractive offer arose, the report said. FCC also holds real estate assets worth EUR 328m and has yet to decide if it sells its 37% stake in the Spanish real estate company Realia, also the target of a take over bid from Slim.

Expansion

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
: GME -6.7%


Other news: APRI -57% (reports top-line Phase 2b Data for Fispemifene with secondary hypogonadism; failed to achieve statistical significance in key clinical benefit endpoints), NBL -4.1% (notified that the Supreme Court of the State of Israel affirmed the Government of Israel's Natural Gas Regulatory Framework), SRPT -1.1% (confirms that it has received a notice of nomination from Viex Capita regarding its intention to nominate five directors to its Board)

Analyst comments: ATW -3% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays), ESV -2.8% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays), PSG -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), QCOM -0.7% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays )

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
: CALM +7.2%

M&A news: QLIK +9% (exploring strategic alternatives amid pressure from activist investor Elliott Management, according to Reuters), LF +3.5% (Leapfrog receives, rejects unsolicited non-binding proposal from L&M Acquisitions for $1.10/share), YHOO +1.5% (Barrons suggesting that Yahoo (YHOO) could be sold)


Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: CLF +2.8%, VALE +2.2%, FCX+1.4%, X +0.5%

Other news: GBSN +35% (receives FDA 510(k) clearance for Staph ID/R Blood Culture Panel following submission in August 2015), ARLZ +15.9% (announces FDA acceptance of NDA for Yosprala for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients at risk for aspirin-induced gastric ulcers), ACAD +15.8% (FDA releases briefing documents ahead of March 29 AdComm for Nuplazid NDA), VMEM +15.2% (names Ebrahim Abbasi as Chief Operating Officer), LEU +14.3% (signs new U.S. Centrifuge Technology Advancement contract with UT-Battelle; totals ~$32.3 mln and runs through September 30), ALDR +7.4% (positive top-line data from two clinical trials evaluating ALD403 for migraine prevention that targets calcitonin gene-related peptide), VCEL +4.6% (publication of clinical trial rationale and study design for the phase 2b ixcell-DCM trial of ixmyelocel-t), DATA +1.7% (still checking), ZBH +1.3% (discloses that the DOJ and the SEC continue to evaluate alleged misconduct in Brazil and Mexico, as well as any issues relating to Biomet's compliance program)

Analyst comments: N/A

>>> US Early premarket gappers


Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: ACAD +13.7%, QLIK +7.5%, SUNE +5.8%, DATA +1.7%, TWTR +1.7%, LF +1.5%, VRX +1.3%, ZBH +1.3%, TSLA +1.1%, YHOO +1.1%, VCEL +1%

Gapping down: GME -8.3%, TRXC -8.2%, ATW -3.8%, NBL -2.3%, C -1.3%, QCOM -0.7%