TheChek News Flow

"Maintenant ça passe ou ça casse", disait mardi l'une des partis prenantes. Martin Bouygues et Stéphane Richard n'ont en effet plus que deux jours pour trouver un accord pour la cession de Bouygues Telecom s'ils veulent respecter leur date butoir fixée au 31 mars. Et les choses vont s'accélérer mercredi avec la convocation, selon nos informations, d'un conseil d'administration chez Orange à 19 heures. Il devra se prononcer sur ce rapprochement. Du côté de Bouygues aussi un conseil d'administration est prévu, mais pas encore convoqué officiellement nous explique-t-on. Il devrait toutefois avoir lieu mercredi soir.

Free multipliera par 12 son nombre de boutiques.Après trois mois de discussions, les deux opérateurs touchent au but. Les discussions avec Free et SFR, qui doivent reprendre une partie des actifs de Bouygues Telecom pour éviter que le dossier ne soit bloqué par l'Autorité de la concurrence sont également proche de la fin. Pour autant, le mariage n'est pas encore certain et "aucun accord n'est signé", annonçait un proche du dossier mardi soir. Un point-clé des négociations semble toutefois réglé, celui des boutiques de Bouygues Télécom. Alors que personne ne voulait des 550 boutiques que compte Bouygues, elle devrait, selon nos informations, être finalement reprises par Free. En cas, bien sûr, d'accord final entre Orange et Bouygues.

Une véritable surprise. Le modèle-même de Free est en effet de se passer de magasins et de privilégier le service client sur internet, une solution pour faire baisser les coûts. Aujourd’hui, Free n’a que 51 boutiques en France, et cela ne fait que 5 ans qu'il a commencé à en ouvrir. Si l’opération avec Orange allait jusqu’au bout, Free passerait donc d’un coup à 600 boutiques, soit une multiplication par douze de son nombre de magasins.

Un enjeu social. L’enjeu de cette reprise est aussi social : avec les boutiques, il y a des salariés. Selon nos informations, Free en reprendrait environ 2.000, ce qui le ferait changer de taille. Free emploie aujourd’hui 6.000 personnes en France et passerait donc à 8.000. Un gros effort de la part de l'opérateur, mais un effort nécessaire, c’est tout simplement le prix à payer pour que le secteur des télécoms en France repasse à trois opérateurs, ce dont Free, Orange et SFR ont très envie. Il y a quelques semaines, Stéphane Richard avait répété qu'il s'agirait d'"une opération socialement irréprochable".

Problème de valorisation. Parmi les sujets qui posent encore problème, celui des valorisations de Bouygues Telecom et d'Orange. L'opérateur souhaiterait en effet se vendre pour 10 milliards - le montant de l'offre fait par SFR en juin 2015 - quand il ne vaut, selon les comptes de Bouygues, que 6 milliards. Le problème est le même avec Orange, dont Bouygues devrait prendre 12%, et dont la valorisation des 12% reste un sujet sensible. "Faut-il valoriser au cours actuel de l'action ? Au cours de l'action moyen sur une période donné ?", s'interrogeait hier encore un connaisseur du dossier. Après des négociations toute la nuit, les discussions vont se poursuivre encore mercredi

Volkswagen faces billions of dollars in potential new penalties after the top US consumer watchdog hit the carmaker with a lawsuit over its emissions cheating scandal.

The Federal Trade Commission is pursuing compensation for consumers that could rise beyond $15bn, according to a lawsuit filed on Tuesday seeking the repayment of “ill-gotten monies”.

The FTC alleges that VW systemically deceived customers over seven years with an advertising campaign promoting “clean diesel” vehicles that were in reality much dirtier than government rules permitted.

VW has admitted to equipping up to 11m diesel-powered cars around the world with software that tricked regulators by reducing nitrogen oxide emissions only when pollution tests were under way.

Six months since the scandal broke VW finds itself surrounded by hostile forces itching to punish it, ranging from the FTC and the US Department of Justice to the French government and German prosecutors.

Even before the FTC lawsuit UBS analysts were predicting the scandal would end up costing the carmaker €38bn, including €10bn in civil penalties and €9bn in criminal fines.

“It seems there is no light at the end of the tunnel so far,” said Ingo Speich, portfolio manager of Union Investment, a VW shareholder.

Edith Ramirez, FTC chairwoman, told the Financial Times: “From what we know the conduct here appears to be quite egregious.”

It relates to 550,000 vehicles sold since late 2008. If the FTC secured compensation equal to an average sale price of $28,000 for the vehicles — which would be consistent with past cases — it would add up to more than $15bn.

The case is due to be decided in a district court in San Francisco, but it could also be settled at a lower cost to VW if the FTC joins settlement talks already under way between the carmaker and other groups challenging it.

“We don’t know yet how this will resolve,” said Ms Ramirez. “There’s a possibility that we’re able to reach a resolution with VW that we believe will be enough to provide redress to consumers that were affected by this.”

“We’re going to want to make sure that however VW is able to address this — whether it’s through some kind of a buyback programme or through essential repairs to the affected vehicles — we want to make sure that consumers in fact get full compensation. That could extend beyond any buyback or repair.”

The FTC lawsuit lays out in excruciating detail how VW touted the greenness of vehicles that it said emitted 90 per cent less than traditional diesel cars, even though they had been rigged by engineers to be secret polluters.

Seeking to woo eco-conscious consumers, VW compared the environmental impact of driving the cars to riding a bike, arranged for the actress Gwyneth Paltrow to arrive in one at a Hollywood premiere, and peddled the slogan “Green has never felt so good”.

The lawsuit reveals that VW continued marketing 3 litre diesel engine cars as “clean diesel” while it was in discussions with the Environmental Protection Agency, which exposed the scandal, about cheating in its 2 litre models.

The lawsuit quotes one VW engineer saying the company had “not been caught” on its 3 litre models.

VW said in a statement: “Volkswagen has received the complaint and continues to co-operate with all relevant US regulators, including the [FTC]. Our most important priority is to find a solution to the diesel emissions matter and earn back the trust of our customers and dealers as we build a better company.”

The FTC’s move adds to a long list of legal challenges VW faces over the emissions scandal.

In January the Department of Justice filed a complaint over VW’s alleged violation of anti-pollution laws and in February a California court consolidated more than half a million cases from VW car owners alleging fraud.

In Europe the French authorities and German prosecutors are pursuing separate investigations into the scandal and the European Commission is pushing for compensation.

Institutional investors, who say the carmaker took too long to tell shareholders about its discussions with US regulators, are seeking damages in a Dutch court.

Rebecca Lindland, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book, a car data service, said: “Every government agency that is even remotely impacted by this situation will sue to recoup what they consider damages to the agency’s constituents. There’s really no end in sight to this situation.”

Dow+0.56% S&P+0.88% Nasdaq+1.67% Russell+2.67%

Macro :

Yellen Says Caution in Raising Rates ‘Especially Warranted’

Kaplan Says Fed Will Hike Gradually to Avoid Risk of Reversal

Lew Says It Would Be Hard for New President to Undo Iran Accord

Goldman Raises $1.5b in Infrastructure Fund First Close: Reuters - http://reut.rs/1qh2xao

ECB’s Coeure Says Helicopter Money Not Being Discussed: Politico

Keep an eye on :

- MMM US : 3M CFO: $24b-$29b on Hand for M&A, Buybacks Through 2020

- ABG SM : Spain Union Says Abengoa to Pay March Wages Using Credit Line

- AIR FP : Airbus Sees Demand for 32,600 New Planes Worldwide Next 20 Yrs

- AIR FP : Triumph Group Unit, Airbus S.A.S. Set ~$500m Landing Gear Pact

- AIR FP : Boeing Confirms Eliminating 4,000 Jobs From Airplanes Unit

- ALO FP : Alstom CEO Says Co. to Invest EU300m in Intl Markets: Les Echos

- ASSAB SS : Assa Abloy Sees Higher Organic Growth Once Markets Normalize: DI

- ASSAB SS : Assa Abloy eyeing over 100 possible takeover targets

- GBB FP : Jaccar Chairman Repeats Delisting Bourbon Not on His Agenda

- BRBY LN : LVMH not interested in Burberrys - Challenges

- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank’s Achleitner Gets Support of Investor Sheikh Hamad - FT

- EGPW IM : Awarded public tender in Mexico to supply energy and clean certificates - financial press - Mexico contracts include $1B investments

- EXQ DC : Qiagen to Submit DKK18/Shr Takeover Offer for Exiqon

- RACE IM : Ferrari looks to buy luxury brands outside car sector; MV Agusta possible target - Carlo Festa Blog http://bit.ly/1Rq4oUz

- OGZD LI : VED may sell 2.7% Gazprom Stake in ADRS

- KPN NA : Discovery Capital Management Holds Fewer KPN Voting Rights: AFM

- LHN VX : LafargeHolcim engages Citi and JPMorgan to sell Australian and New Zealand operations - The Australian

- MBWS FP : Marie Brizard Repays Creditors Early, Le Figaro Says

- MDVN US : Medivation Share Pullback Seen as Buy Opportunity: Credit Suisse

- NEO FP : Neopost FY EPS EU3.57 Vs EU3.71 Y/y

- NESN VX : GIS +1.7% on Bif rumor from PE & NESN - heavy volume

- ORP FP : Orpea Targets Sales of EU2.72b in 2016

- UG FP : Peugeot R&D Head Sees EU1.8B in R&D Expenses in 2016

- PFD LN : Premier Foods Boss Told Nissin of McCormick Interest: Telegraph

- QIA GY : Qiagen to Submit DKK18/Shr Takeover Offer for Exiqon

- SUBC NO : Seaway Heavy Lifting up for sale; Boskalis, Saipem, Heerema and Technip rumoured to be interested -de Telegraaf

- UCG IM : UniCredit Said to Be in Talks Over EU2b Capital Raising: FT

- VIV FP : 21st Century Fox Said to Eye Paramount Pictures Stake: NYP

>>> Up

*BOURBON RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT SOCIETE GENERALE

*CENTAMIN RAISED TO ADD VS HOLD AT NUMIS

*DEUTZ RAISED TO BUY AT HSBC

*GLAXOSMITHKLINE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

*INMARSAT RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG

*NEXT RAISED TO HOLD VS UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES

>>> Down

*AEGON CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES

*DEBENHAMS CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES

*DUNELM CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES

*M&S CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES

*NORSKE SKOG CUT TO REDUCE AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX

*PEUGEOT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE

*POUNDLAND CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS BUY AT JEFFERIES

*SUNRISE COMMUNICATIONS CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN

*TELEVISA CUT TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN

*WILLIAM HILL CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY

>>> PT Change

>>> Initiation

*AVIVA RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE; PT 502P

*BNP PARIBAS RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT EU50

*BRAIN AG RATED NEW BUY AT ODDO SEYDLER, PT EU12

*SCANDINAVIAN TOBACCO RATED NEW BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK; PT DKK130

*SOCGEN RATED NEW BUY AT UBS; PT EU38

>>> Call

>> Stock

*ATOS ADDED TO TOP PICKS UNDER ALPHA MODEL AT MACQUARIE

*EMS CHEMIE ADDED TO TOP PICKS UNDER ALPHA MODEL AT MACQUARIE

*RWE ADDED TO TOP PICKS UNDER ALPHA MODEL AT MACQUARIE

*SHELL ADDED TO TOP PICKS UNDER ALPHA MODEL AT MACQUARIE

*WPP ADDED TO TOP PICKS UNDER ALPHA MODEL AT MACQUARIE

The Qatari investor that owns the second-biggest stake in Deutsche Bank plans to issue a rare public statement supporting Paul Achleitner as the chairman of Germany’s biggest bank, despite a sharp fall in the value of its shares.

The announcement could come as early as Wednesday from Paramount Services Holdings, one of the vehicles through which Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jaber Al Thani — known as HBJ — took a 6.1 per cent stake in Deutsche in 2014.

It will provided a much-needed boost for Mr Achleitner, who has been chairman of Deutsche’s supervisory board for almost four years.

He is facing pressure from investors over the bank’s weak performance — its shares have fallen more than 50 per cent in the past year — amid speculation that he may not win a second term when his contract expires next year.

Germany’s Manager Magazin quoted a person close to HBJ’s family saying Mr Achleitner “will not be part of Deutsche Bank’s future beyond 2017”. The Al Thani family owns 6.1 per cent of Deutsche split equally between Paramount and another entity — Supreme Universal Holdings.

Paramount’s statement, seen by the Financial Times, rejects this, saying it “does not believe it would be in shareholders’ interests for Supervisory Board chairman Paul Achleitner to relinquish his position in 2017, after his current term expires”. It adds that Mr Achleitner’s “leadership remains an important factor underlying Paramount Services Holdings’ investment case and confidence in Deutsche Bank”.

Paramount says it “believes that speculation about its views have the potential to create uncertainty, which is why it decided to issue a public statement”. Deutsche declined to comment.

However, other investors say Mr Achleitner might still struggle to win enough support to secure a second term next year, unless the performance of Germany’s biggest bank improves rapidly before then.

One big investor in Deutsche said: “Achleitner doesn’t have to go now, but whether his contract should be extended beyond 2017 is an open question.

A top-20 investor said: “If Deutsche’s strategy is showing signs of working then Achleitner could try to go for a second term. But if their profitability is not improving then investors would have to think about further steps.”

Last year, Mr Achleitner oversaw a shake-up in the bank’s senior management, hiring John Cryan to replace Anshu Jain as co-chief executive and to take full control when fellow co-chief executive Jürgen Fitschen steps down this year.

The Deutsche chairman had previously spent 12 years on the management board of German insurer Allianz and, before that, 11 years at Goldman Sachs, and is seen as one of the best connected figures in German finance.

Ferrari looks to buy luxury brands outside car sector; MV Agusta possible target – Carlo Festa Blog

Ferrari [BIT:RACE], the Italian luxury car group, is looking to buy luxury brands outside the automobile sector, the Italian language Carlo Festa blog reported. The unsourced report said that Ferrari wants to make considered buys but, because of the lack of targets in the car sector, is looking at luxury brands in other parts of the market.

The report said that the luxury yacht and motorcycle sectors was likely to be one of the areas where Ferrari will seek targets. The report said that motorcycle manufacturer MV Agusta could be a possible target, given the clash presently taking place between MV Agusta's majority shareholder the Castiglioni family and its minority shareholder Daimler.

The report said that Ferrari would need to sound out Sergio Marchionne, the CEO of Ferrari's parent FCA, as he known to be unenthusiastic about the motorcycle sector.

Previous reports have claimed that MV Agusta is looking to carry out a EUR 30m capital increase.

21st Century Fox is one of a dozen companies interested in acquiring a minority stake in Viacom’s Paramount Pictures, The Post has learned.

Fox recently signaled its interest and would be interested in a deal to invest in the studio — worth $5 billion to $6 billion by some estimates — if it could provide synergies to the fabled Tinseltown movie studio, sources said.

Viacom Chief Executive Philippe Dauman, amid a cratering stock price and falling ratings, said on Feb. 23 that the media giant was considering selling a “significant” minority stake in the 104-year-old studio, which had a 5.9 percent market share of the movie business in 2015, according to BoxOfficeMojo.

Fox owned an 11.3 percent share of the movie business last year.

Wall Street’s keeping a close watch on Viacom right now. Its controlling shareholder, Sumner Redstone, soon to turn 93, is in failing health.

Dauman finds himself under pressure to turn the company around after a period of poor performance and cost-cutting at the studio.

Paramount, run by Brad Grey, is known for movies like “The Godfather” and “Mission Impossible.” Its summer slate includes “Star Trek Beyond” and “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows.”

Viacom is expected to use the proceeds from the Paramount stake sale to pay down debt, among other things.

While Fox has expressed interest, Viacom has thus far given it the cold shoulder, sources said.

Some in Hollywood have taken that to mean Viacom is looking for a different kind of partner, one solely interested in the studio as a passive investment.

There have been no talks between the two companies, sources said. “As it is configured, there’s no interest,” said a source close to talks.

Viacom hired PJT Partners to shop the stake after, it said, it received expressions of interest from prospective partners.

Others kicking the tires are China-based media companies such as Alibaba and Dalian Wanda, according to reports.

While some Tinseltown sources describe Viacom as being interested in solely a passive partner, others maintain that is not the case.

Those sources point to Dauman’s comments back in February: “In this time of change and enormous opportunity in our industry, a partnership will bring significant benefit to Paramount and Viacom, both strategically and financially, provide new opportunities for Paramount’s employees and talent, and enhance long-term value for all Viacom shareholders.”

Fox isn’t alone in viewing a minority stake as unappealing.

DreamWorks Animation’s Jeffrey Katzenberg, speaking at the Morgan Stanley Technology Media and Telecom Conference on Feb. 26, said he wouldn’t bite at a minority Paramount stake — but would rather buy the entire studio.

Viacom shares closed Tuesday at $40.14, down 23 cents. Shares are down 41 percent over the past year.

Eric Jackson, managing director at SpringOwl Asset Management, an activist investor, told The Post: “[The Paramount sale] is the minimum he [Dauman] can do to juice the stock without giving up control or anything that really changes the collection of assets.”

Fox shares ownership with News Corp., which owns The Post.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) closed the first stage of fundraising for its newest infrastructure fund with about $1.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

The fund, which completed its first close late last year and is targeting $3 billion, has since reached $1.8 billion in capital raising, the people added, asking not to be named because the matter is private.

A spokeswoman for Goldman declined to comment.

Goldman's last infrastructure fund raised $3.1 billion in 2010. Goldman has raised more than $10 billion in investments in infrastructure since 2006, according to its website.

Investors are increasingly looking to infrastructure, which includes assets such as airports, bridges and toll roads, as an alternative to low-yielding fixed income products with more stable returns than traditional private equity.

Morgan Stanley (MS.N) said in March it had raised $3.6 billion for its second infrastructure fund.

Other private equity firms are looking to raise large infrastructure funds.

ArcLight Capital Partners last year closed a $5.6 billion fund focused on energy infrastructure investments and KKR & Co LP also closed a $3.1 billion fund.

Global Infrastructure Partners is seeking to raise as much as $15 billion for its third fund, according to reports last year.