TheChek News Flow

Pour un peu, on parlerait d’accumulation. Depuis quelques années, les acteurs historiques de la batterie électrique, comme Saft ou Varta, se frottent à de nombreux (et nouveaux) concurrents venus d’horizons variés lorgnant tous le stockage d’électricité pour entreprises ou particuliers – Total n’étant que le dernier d’une longue série avec l’offre de rachat de Saft, ce lundi. Il faut dire que ce marché, qui pesait à peine 200 millions de dollars il y a encore trois ans, à croire les chiffres d’IHS, pourrait friser les 19 milliards de dollars en 2017. Voire bientôt beaucoup plus, si les prévisions de capacité d’un autre institut se vérifient : selon Navigant Research, on déploiera dans le monde 18 fois plus de batteries en 2025 que cette année (9,1 gigawatts contre 500 mégawatts)... Tour d’horizon des acteurs qui, en parallèle des groupes d’énergie, s’intéressent de près à ce secteur.

Les spécialistes asiatiques de l'électronique

L’autonomie des appareils électroniques, c’est le nerf de la guerre des géants de la « tech » – rappelez-vous les piles rechargeables des baladeurs CD ou des GameBoy. Logiquement, les acteurs de l’électronique grand public se sont intéressés au domaine il y a plus de trente ans, d’abord pour développer le potentiel nomade de leurs engins, avant de défricher d’autres terrains. Résultat, les groupes japonais (Sony, Panasonic, NEC) ou coréens (LG, Samsung) se taillent la part du lion dans les ventes de batteries, quelles que soient leur taille, leur utilisation ou leur capacité.

Les conglomérats attrape-tout de l’industrie

Siemens, General Electric, Lockheed Martin ou les groupes plus spécialisés dans l’énergie comme Schneider ou ABB... Les grands noms de l’industrie semblent s’accorder sur l’intérêt du stockage d’électricité, et sur la nécessité de s’y développer. Chez Siemens, ABB ou Schneider, il s’agit de s’adapter aux évolutions du marché énergétique et de répondre à la demande de leurs clients, dans l’automobile ou ailleurs. Chez Lockheed Martin ou General Electric, c’est plutôt une manière de monétiser à l’extérieur les recherches et les technologies maison.

Les constructeurs automobiles

A la fin des années 2000, Renault avait envisagé de construire une usine de batteries sur le site de Flins (Yvelines). Avant de se raviser. D’autres ont décidé de creuser le sillon, à commencer par Tesla. Le constructeur californien est en train de construire avec Panasonic une énorme usine de batteries dans le Nevada (5 milliards de dollars d’investissement), pour alimenter ses véhicules mais aussi usiner à grande échelle les batteries domestiques d’Elon Musk. Dans ce même créneau de la batterie pour garage, Accumotive, une filiale de Daimler, est également présente, avec un produit serti de l’étoile Mercedes.

A vrai dire, si les constructeurs auto se mettent à la batterie, c’est que cette dernière ressemble fort au moteur de demain et y concentre une bonne part de la valeur du véhicule. Ainsi, ce n’est pas un hasard si BYD, un fabricant chinois de batterie, s’est mis en tête de concevoir ses propres véhicules électriques... Tout comme Bolloré avec sa BlueCar bretonne

En savoir plus sur http://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/021914945189-la-batterie-le-nouveau-rendez-vous-des-industriels-1220547.php?wcQMPTIOfIAJZwZE.99

Debt relief may well be coming to Greece. Finally. Maybe.

That was (sort of) the message from eurozone finance ministers in Brussels last night, and it’s been enough to send the country’s 10-year bond yields falling to their lowest levels all year, writes Mehreen Khan.

Last week, during which the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, BofAML clients were net sellers of US

stocks for the 15th week, in the amount of $1.3bn. This has been the longest uninterrupted

selling streak in our data history (since ’08)—previously the longest streak (in late ’10) was

12 weeks. The pace of outflows has slowed slightly in the last two weeks. Rampant

negative equity sentiment—echoed by EPFR flow data, BofAML’s Global Fund Manager

Survey, and our Sell Side Indicator (which recently generated a contrarian “Buy” signal)—

suggest extreme levels of bearishness and reflect doubt that the market can rally further.

Net sales continue to be led by institutional clients, while hedge funds and private clients

also remain sellers. Clients sold stocks in all three size segments last week. Corporate

buybacks picked up last week, though are tracking below last year’s 2Q-to-date levels.

Clients sold stocks in seven sectors plus ETFs last week. The biggest sales were of

Industrials and Materials (third-largest and second-largest in our data history, respectively),

after Industrials had seen positive flows and solid earnings results the week prior. Only

Tech, Discretionary and Telecom stocks saw net buying, with flows into Discretionary the

largest in eight months and Tech inflows their largest since Sept. Health Care continues to

have the longest selling streak (ten weeks); this sector has been hurt by a positioning

unwind and political uncertainty in an election year. No sector has seen more than two

weeks of buying. Year-to-date, only Telecom stocks have seen cumulative inflows, and

Utilities have seen the smallest net sales—with both of these sectors helped by the fall in

interest rates and a push-out in the expected timing of the first Fed rate hike.

• Net sales of small caps last week were the largest since Nov. and the fifth-largest in

our data history, entirely led by institutions. Our clients have been persistent buyers of

small caps for last several years, despite a worrisome rise in leverage to all-time highs

(chart below)—though small caps have begun to see outflows for last two months.

• The commodity-oriented sectors of Energy, Industrials and Materials—last week’s

worst-performers—plus Utilities and Staples saw net sales by institutional clients,

hedge funds and private clients alike last week. No sector saw net buying by all three.

• Pension fund clients were net sellers of US stocks for the second week, led by sales of

ETFs and stocks in the Staples and Materials sectors. But unlike broader institutional

clients, this group is still a net buyer year-to-date. See Pension fund flows for details.

shortage of inventory, with PMI new orders less inventory implying a further pick-up in IP growth; (iv) a stabilisation in FX reserves; and (v) signs of reform.

Investment conclusions: We see four China-related buys: (1) We upgrade luxury from underweight to overweight owing to compelling valuation on Credit Suisse HOLT®, especially for a non-disrupted sector; revenue growth

expectations have fallen to realistic levels; and European luxury stocks have significantly decoupled from Macau casino stocks. Focus on LVMH. (2) Non- China-related GEM exposure (Experian, Sanofi, Imperial). (3) Shanghai A

(excess liquidity is extreme) – Alibaba, Tencent. (4) Cement (the prospect of fiscal QE, construction at 20-year lows as a percentage of GDP in Europe, corporate change, good earnings momentum) – LafargeHolcim.

We stay underweight: German autos (a 'perfect storm' of negatives); Chinarelated capital goods (Sandvik, SKF); bulk chemicals (BASF) and Chinarelated competitive threat plays (which have outperformed relative to the

RmB). The following stocks are priced for premium CFROI® to their historical norms: Nabtesco and Vestas Windsystems. We remain underweight mining (having reduced to underweight in March) but acknowledge a more positive story on steel and zinc (and thus reduce the size of the underweight). The fundamental problem, however, is that a large number of indicators suggest industrial commodity prices should fall.

Full note attached

British food and retail group Associated British Foods PLC is considering a sale of its China sugar business that could fetch $1 billion, according to people familiar with the situation.

The company is inviting bids for its AB Sugar unit’s China business, which was established in 1995 via a joint venture and now has factories and mills in southern and northern China, one of the people said.

The potential sale could attract domestic Chinese buyers, who are looking to invest more in agricultural commodities, according to people familiar with the situation. Bids are due by the end of May, they said.

Sugar consumption in China is slowing amid weak overall economic growth, and production costs have climbed higher with wage increases.

ABF, which is the sixth-largest sugar producer in China by capacity, scaled back its China operations last year. The British company sold two of its factories in northern China’s Heilongjiang province in 2015. It took a noncash charge of £100 million ($144 million) when it ceased operations in the province.

In April, the company signaled that its business in China was improving after it closed the factories and raised prices.

Operational performance at two beet-sugar factories, in Zhangbei and in Qianqi, was strong with 159,000 metric tons of sugar produced. In the South, production was 31% lower than last year at 287,000 metric tones, due to a combination of a smaller area assigned to the cane crop, excessive rain affecting cane maturity and the poor sugar content that resulted.

Chinese companies have been expanding in the agricultural industry at home and abroad in recent months. Sinochem Group, China’s biggest seller of seeds and fertilizer, in March made an offer to buy Singapore’s natural rubber supply-chain manager Halcyon Agri Corp. and combine it with other units to create the world’s largest listed rubber company.

In December, state-backed grain trader Cofco agreed to buy Noble Group’s remaining stake in their joint venture Noble Agri for $750 million.

ABF currently operates five cane-sugar mills in southern China’s Guangxi Province and two beet-sugar factories in the Northeast of the country with an annual sugar capacity of more than 800,000 metric tons, according to the company’s website.

ABF was one of the earliest Western companies to invest in China when a subsidiary put money into the country’s yeast production in 1985.

It has established more than 50 legal entities in China with a total investment of more than 6 billion yuan ($922 million) and employs more than 10,000 people, with business interests in other sectors such as agriculture, individual ingredients and nutritional foods.

- Dollar value can be primarily driven by events abroad 

Gazprom’s higher-than-expected FCF in 2015 and strong balance sheet gives scope to pay a higher dividend for 2015. The government is pushing for a 50% payout but management might try to negotiate this down. We think the market is currently pricing in a payout of c.30%, factoring in a c.20% probability of a 50% payout. 

- We upgrade Gazprom to Neutral.

- We upgrade Novatek to Buy and add it to the CEEMEA Focus List.

- We downgrade Bashneft to Neutral post the recent rally as we believe an M&A premium is priced in.

- We like Lukoil for its high dividend yield and keep a Buy rating, but remove the stock from CEEMEA Focus List.

Monday's Eurogroup on Greece contained a number of positive developments relating to the country's

on-going programme review as well as debt relief. We expect those developments to support Greek and

broader European risk assets, where we have argued for upside (see most recently "Which risks to fade;

which risks to take").

First, the Eurogroup endorsed the package of measures voted through the Greek parliament on Sunday

and detailed the next steps and actions required for completion of the current programme review.

Overall, there is now agreement on the broad policy framework, paving the way for completion of the

first review (hopefully) on 24 May. It is also worth recalling that completion of the review will also be

accompanied by the reinstatement of the ECB collateral requirement waiver for Greek banks.

Secondly, the general framework for debt relief/official sector involvement (OSI) has now been outlined.

Its main tenets are the following: a) debt relief will be conditional upon Greece implementing the

reforms it has promised; b) a framework to assess Greece's debt sustainability on the basis of the

country's gross financing needs (away from debt-to-GDP) is introduced; c) a roadmap to implementing

debt relief is laid out. This roadmap stretches out in the short term (through an optimisation of Greece's

debt management, mainly via the ESM's own funding strategies); the medium term (at the end of the

programme in 2018 via extension of maturities); as well as the longer term. Crucially, Eurogroup

President Dijsselbloem drew a distinction between the 3.5% of GDP primary surplus targets required in

the context of Greece's current program to be achieved in the medium term from the appropriate level

of primary surplus required of Greece in the long term, thereby hinting at the prospect of smaller primary

surpluses for Greece once the medium-term fiscal adjustment is deemed to be complete.

This is the first time there is clarity on debt relief as well as a clear signal that Eurozone member states

are willing to act on Greek debt. Additionally, the allusion to lower long-term primary surpluses is

arguably not only macroeconomically sensible but a way to satisfy the political desideratum of keeping

the IMF involved in the Greek bailout. Finally, the above helps the Greek government build its success

story via programme compliance, thereby incentivising it to persist on the conciliatory path with its

creditors. The formal commencement of the debt relief discussion will begin after the conclusion of the

current review while the technicalities of the package will be discussed again at the 24 May Euro group

meeting. Remaining loose ends are passing through parliament the last few prior actions and obtaining

the IMF's full consent on the policy package. These developments are good news for Greek assets (both

GGBs and equities) but also risk sentiment in Europe (especially in peripheral bond and equity markets)

and negative on the margin for core European yields. ECB QE eligibility is the light at the end of the

tunnel for Greek assets (especially GGBs). For this to happen, however, Greece not only needs to satisfy

the standard criteria set by the ECB for programme countries but there also needs to be an assessment

regarding the sustainability of Greek debt. This probably means that QE eligibility will have to wait at

least for the debt discussions to conclude in Q3/early Q4. Nonetheless, the complexity of this issue and

the gradual and conditional process of debt relief could result in further delays on this count.

We highlight the upcoming Investor Seminar at the Vevey HQ as a potential positive catalyst for Nestlé.

We believe Nestlé will use the seminar as an opportunity to outline its strategy on how to return to the

Nestlé growth model of 5-6%, as well as a clearer articulation of ongoing cost-savings initiatives. While

several peers, such as Danone, Unilever and P&G, have provided detailed cost-saving strategies over the

past 12 months, Nestlé has remained relatively vague, and the FY15 margin performance was

underwhelming, in our view. As such, we believe any announcement of tangible cost-saving measures or

bottom-line guidance could materially boost sentiment.

FY16 marks the final full year with Chairman Peter Brabeck at the helm. In our view, the most likely

successor to the role of Chairman is current CEO Paul Bulcke given the Nestlé history of Chairmen

succession. The company has indicated that it will announce the leadership changes around September,

so whilst we are not expecting any updates on this front, we would expect the spotlight at the seminar

to be on the front-runners. In our view there are three main possibilities for the CEO role: (1) Laurent

Freixe, Head of Zone Americas (2) Wan Ling Martello, Head of Zone AOA (3) Chris Johnson, Head of

Nestlé Business Excellence. Whilst we would not rule out a Nestlé outsider filling the role – the current

and prior CFO (Francois-Xavier Roger and Wan Ling Martello) were both Nestlé outsiders – we note that

the CEO role has not been filled by an outsider since 1922.

We value Nestlé using a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 14x – a small premium to the EU Food sector

(13x), given its best-in-class returns and LT growth profile.

Abertis has secured an agreement with Intesa, Astaldi and the Tabacchi family to take up the two companies controlling 51.4% stake in the Italian industrial group A4 Holding, whose main assets are the A4 Brescia-Padova and the A31 toll roads.

The acquisition, closed for a total amount of EUR 594m, will be disbursed at the end of January 2023 (except for EUR 5m to be paid at the closing of the transaction, expected in the coming months).