After Hours Summary: GWRE +4%, OLLI -1%, BOX -8% following earnings/guidance; ORCL -3% following lawsuit from former accountantAfter Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: GWRE +4.2%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: RPRX +15.4% (remains on track for MAA submission for enclomiphene for the treatment of secondary hypogonadism with anticipated registration decision expected fall 2017), KERX +5.4% (Baupost Group shows 42.53% active stake following conversion of $125 mln aggregate principal amount of notes), DERM +3.1% (announces topline results from its Phase 3 ATMOS-1 and ATMOS-2 pivotal trials for DRM04; DRM04 demonstrated statistically significant improvements for both co-primary endpoints and both secondary endpoints compared to vehicle)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: BOX -7.9%, OLLI -1.0%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: WFT -6% (prices $1.0 bln of exchangeable senior notes due 2021), ORCL -2.6% (reports that former accountant has filed lawsuit - allegedly was told to change sales figures)
Closing Market Summary: Averages Rebound Ahead of OPEC MeetingThe stock market ended the Wednesday affair on a flat note as the major averages rebounded from opening weakness. Additional factors for today's trade included a reversal in crude oil, weakness in the dollar, mixed economic data, and the outperformance of the heavily-weighted financial (+0.3%) and health care (+0.4%) sectors. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%) ended its day in-line with the S&P 500 (+0.1%) and ahead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (UNCH).
Today's session started on a lower note as equity futures responded to a negative bias in international bourses. Overnight, Japan's Nikkei (-1.6%) led the retreat after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that he would delay the next sales tax hike until 2019. Prime Minister Abe also stated that he would unveil a new fiscal stimulus package in the fall. Meanwhile, tepid readings from China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI (49.2; consensus 49.3) and German Manufacturing PMI for May (52.1; consensus 52.4) added to the shaky start.
Equity indices climbed off their opening lows as investors examined a strong reading of the ISM Service Index for May (51.3; consensus 50.4). However, April Construction Spending (-1.8%; consensus +0.5%) missed estimates, but contained a positive revision to the March reading (to 1.5% from 0.3%). The major averages climbed through the afternoon as a reversal in crude oil bolstered the move higher in equities. WTI crude ended its day lower by 0.1% at $49.06/bbl.
Seven sectors finished in the green as consumer staples (+0.7%), health care (+0.4%), financials (+0.3%), and materials (+0.3%) led the pack. Conversely, telecom services (-1.0%), technology (-0.3%), and consumer discretionary (-0.1%) rounded out the board.
In the consumer staples sector (+0.7%), household product names displayed relative strength with Colgate-Palmolive (CL 71.20, +0.79) and Estee Lauder (EL 92.99, +1.21) gaining 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively. Elsewhere, Costco (COST 152.52, +3.75) outperformed after receiving an upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at Goldman Sachs.
Generic drug names sported the largest gains in the health care space (+0.4%). Mylan Labs (MYL 44.46, +1.12) led the group after it reported that it will launch generic versions of Cephalon's Nuvigil and Mayne's Doxteric medications. Elsewhere, Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX 29.79, +1.34) jumped 4.7% after announcing that it will release its quarterly report on June 7.
In the financial sector (+0.3%), money center banks demonstrated relative strength as the sub-group moved higher in sympathy with JPMorgan Chase (JPM 65.69, +0.42). The company gained 0.6% after it raised its second-quarter trading revenue guidance. Conversely, real estate investment trusts (REITs) with primary holdings in residential properties underperformed. Equity Residential (EQR 66.37, -2.84) fell 4.1% after lowering its second-quarter revenue growth estimates to 4.0-4.5% (from 4.5-5.0%).
Automotive names underperformed in the consumer discretionary space (-0.1%) as Ford (F 13.11, -0.38) and General Motors (GM 30.22, -1.06) fell 2.8% and 3.4%, respectively. The two companies reported disappointing May sales. AutoNation (AN 49.67, -0.77) and CarMax (KMX 52.09, -1.57) ticked lower in sympathy with the names. Separately, Demandware (DWRE 74.81, +26.82) rallied 55.9% after Salesforce.com (CRM 83.45, -0.26) announced that it would acquire the company for $75.00 per share in cash, or approximately $2.8 billion.
The U.S. Dollar Index (95.42, -0.47) ended near its session low as the euro and the yen extended their gains against the greenback. The euro/dollar pair finished higher by 0.5% (1.1190) while the dollar lost 1.1% against the yen (109.57).
The Treasury complex ended on a mixed note with the yield on the 10-yr note flat at 1.84%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-yr note rose two basis points to 0.89%.
Today's volume was above the recent average as more than 880 million shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included the MBA Mortgage Index, ISM Service Index for May, and Construction Spending for April:
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Index showed a seasonally adjusted decline of 4.1% in mortgage applications.
- The ISM Manufacturing Index for May checked in at 51.3. That was up from 50.8 in April and was ahead of the consensus estimate of 50.4.
- The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0, so May marked the third straight month of expansion for the manufacturing sector
- The weakening dollar from earlier in the year and the spike in oil prices has offered some relief to the sector.
- There was a nice headline surprise here then, with the improvement from April, yet a look under the hood didn't exactly reveal a manufacturing sector running on all cylinders.
- Notably, the improvement in May was not a function of an increase in new orders, production, inventories, or the backlog of orders. Those indexes all declined from April.
- In particular, the New Orders Index slipped from 55.8 to 55.7, the Production Index dropped from 54.2 to 52.6, the Inventories Index fell from 45.5 to 45.0, and the Backlog of Orders Index went from 50.5 to 47.0.
- The main drivers of the uptick in May were the Prices Index, which jumped from 59.0 to 63.5, and the Customers' Inventories Index, which rose from 46.0 to 50.0.
- The indexes for employment, new export orders, and imports were all unchanged.
- Construction spending declined 1.8% month-over-month in April, which created a jarring headline surprise given the understanding that the consensus estimate called for a 0.5% increase.
- Part of the headline disappointment, though, can be attributed to the large upward revision for March.
- Specifically, it was reported that construction spending in March increased 1.5% after it was previously reported to be up just 0.3%.
- That upward revision stemmed from positive revisions for both private (from 1.1% to 2.3%) and public (from -1.9% to -0.6%) spending.
- That should help somewhat when the third estimate for Q1 GDP is released, especially since February also saw an upward revision to 1.4% from 1.0%.
- Conversely, the decline in construction spending in April stands as a negative input for Q2 GDP forecasts.
- The spending activity for April featured a 1.5% decline in private construction and a 2.8% decline in public construction.
- The drop in private construction was accented by a 1.5% decline in residential construction and a 1.5% decline in nonresidential construction, which was weighed down by a 1.5% drop in manufacturing and a 3.6% decline in both commercial and health care.
- In terms of public construction, the biggest weights there were highway and street and educational, which declined 6.6% and 2.5%, respectively.
- On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending is up 4.5%, with private construction up 5.7% and public construction up 1.2%.
Tomorrow's economic data will include the Challenger Job Cuts for May and the May ADP Employment Change Report (consensus 180k), which will be released at 7:30 ET and 8:15 ET, respectively. Meanwhile, weekly initial claims (consensus 268k) will cross the wires at 8:30 ET.
- S&P 500 +2.7% YTD
- Russell 2000 +2.3% YTD
- Dow Jones +2.1% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite -1.1% YTD
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: KORS +7.8%, ZOES +3.6%, CBRL +3.0%, ATHM +2.9%, INNL +2.6%, NCS+1.2%, NX +0.9%, HBI +0.8%
M&A news: DWRE +56.4% (to be acquired by Salesforce (CRM) for $75.00/share in cash), PACB +3.7% (cont strength following yday's M&A rumors), PSEC +0.1% (sells its interests in Harbortouch Payments to Searchlight Capital Partners)
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:AU +3.5%, GFI +2.8%, SWC +2.5%, ABX +2.2%, CLF +2.1%, AUY +1.9%,GDX +1.6%, GOLD +1.3%, NEM +1.3%.
Other news: PARN +17% (commences a Contract Manufacturing Agreement with Merial, the animal health division of Sanofi (SNY)), GALE +16.6% (FDA has designated NeuVax, combined with recombinant granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor, as a Fast Track development program for the treatment of patients with early stage breast cancer), ATNM +11.4% (announces 'positive' results from its Phase 1 Actimab-A trial in patients newly diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia), AVEO+8.8% (Growth Equity Opportunities discloses 29.6% active stake), CANF +8% (reaches agreement with EMA on Pivotal Phase III clinical trial with Piclidenoson (CF101) in Rheumatoid Arthritis), CJES +7.5% (enters into forbearance agreement in connection with previously announced covenant violation, lenders agree to forbear from exercising default remedies or accelerating any indebtedness through June 30), PRQR +1.9% (announces that its investigational drug QR-110 has received orphan drug designation from both the FDA and the EMA for the treatment of Leber's congenital amaurosis Type 10), RGLS+1.3% (expands clinical trial collaboration with GSK), SRPT +1.2% (after BioMarin (BMRN) withdraws its Kyndrisa Marketing Authorization Application from the European Medicines Agency), JCP +1.2% (to refinance & extend maturity date of its $2.25 bln senior secured term loan facility), .
Analyst comments: WFM +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), CCE +1.6% (initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill), COST +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), INXN +1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), FOXA +0.9% (added to US 1 List at BofA/Merrill), RLYP +0.5% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Mizuho)
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DAKT -12.2%, LE -7.3%, ADPT -4.9%, ASNA -4.8%, WDAY -2.4%, TIVO-1.3%
Select EU financial related names showing weakness: RBS -4.2%, BCS -2.4%, DB -2.1%, LYG -1.9%, SAN -1.7%, CS-1.7%, HSBC -1.1%
Select copper mining stocks trading lower: RIO -2.8%, BBL -2.2%, BHP -2.1%, FCX -1.7%
Other news: APHB -24.6% (prices offering of 2,127,660 shares of common stock and warrants to purchase up to an aggregate of 1,063,830 shares of common stock), BABA -3.5% (SoftBank (SFTBY) to reduce its stake in Alibab to ~28%; BABA to purchase from SoftBank $2 bln BABA shares), BMRN -3% (BioMarin withdraws its Kyndrisa Marketing Authorization Application from the European Medicines Agency), FRC -2.4% (to sell 2.5 mln shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering)
Analyst comments: NKE -2.9% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), EMC -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), CELG -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research).
The spreads long term against short term are close to historical peaks with a 37% decrease between 2017 and 2023 to 28% between 2019 and 2025.In our view, we estimate the market is worried about i) sustainability of the dividends in the future, ii) beginning of 2016 market fall which increased the stress on the dividend outlook.Historically, spreads between long term and shorter term future dividends tend to widen in difficult times (market fall, difficult economic outlook) and gradually recover over time as shown in the graph below.Between March and June 2012, all 2013 / 2018, 2014 / 2019 and 2015 / 2020 widened by respectively 22%, 19% and 14%.We see here a 16% upside for the first pair, 10% on the second and 5% on the third in a 6 month period.