TheChek News Flow

François Fillon’s victory in the right primary shows many French voters reject populism and desire wide-ranging reforms. But now comes the difficult part: 1) being elected in the Presidential election next spring against the Front National and possibly several centrist candidates and, 2) implementing the reforms proposed during the campaign.

We continue to believe that the risk of Marine Le Pen being elected President next year is low (c.10%). There remains a majority of French people united against the Front National in major elections. However, the risk is higher with François Fillon than with Alain Juppé given the former’s more radical agenda, which is likely to scare some centrists, not to mention left-wing voters.

Fillon’s public savings programme looks too ambitious to be realised in five years, in our view, and poor social cohesion and low market pressure could slow reforms. But, if elected, Fillon would have a real mandate for reform and his referendum on a unique social regime could help break union opposition. All told, the French elections could be the positive surprise of 2017.

Fillon’s tax cuts could give a short-term boost to the economy and French corporate profits could rise by c.23%. His plan would be more negative for consumers due to the VAT hike. In our mid-cap universe, our analysts believe his policies could benefit Korian (+), Orpea (+) and Lisi (+) and should be neutral / slightly positive for property developers such as Nexity (=) and Kaufman & Broad (+). We also assess the possible impact on staffing, utilities and defence names.

It’s no secret that luxury retailers are behind the times when it comes to e-commerce.

Chanel lets you purchase its fragrances, beauty products and sunglasses online — but not its handbags. Hermès allows you to purchase some bags and other items on its Web site — but not its signature Birkin and Kelly bags. Celine lets you view its goods online, but you can’t purchase any of them that way.

But now these companies are taking steps to be more Web-friendly, The Post has learned.

Celine, the French luxury ready-to-wear and leather goods brand, recently began including its prices online though you still can’t buy anything.

A spokeswoman declined to comment on the development, but store employees confirmed that Celine updated its Web site, adding prices for the first time.

Chanel also revamped its Web site.

“Since October, prices listed on Chanel.com are given in the local currency depending on the geographical location,” the company said in a statement to The Post, adding, “The user now has access to the prices applicable to the country where he/she is.”

But the company declined to discuss the reason for this change.

A store employee offered that Chanel “just went through a globalization of the brand because it was running into problems” with different prices in different countries.

“It’s been a big adjustment for the brand,” said the employee.

These retailers are “slowly succumbing to the fact that you have to be accessible online,” said Gabriella Santaniello, founder of A Line Partners, a retail research firm. “They are very late to e-commerce, but some of it is by design because limiting their products online is a way of controlling their brand.”

The global recovery is likely to gain more momentum in 2017 on the back of faster US growth, stable DM growth and rebounding EM momentum. While growth becomes more balanced, material risks emanate from late-cycle fiscal stimulus, faster Fed rate hikes and a broad globalisation backlash.

Bull-bear scenarios – mapping out higher risks, fatter tails: The 2017 outlook is subject to material uncertainty, not least due to a new US administration taking office, key ballots in Europe and the formal start of Brexit. The fatter tails of the distribution of macro outcomes will make for an interesting and intense macro debate. More than

ever, we will rely on our bull-bear scenarios.

medium-term picture for the industry continues to look deflationary, capping any price increases in the OCTG market in which Vallourec operates.

Our 12-month price target of €4.5 is based on a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.5x (a 27% premium to the historical 2006-14 average of 8.3x) applied to our 2018 estimates.

(1) Higher/lower oil prices than expected (Vallourec’s share price has historically been tightly correlated to oil price movements) 

(2) a better/worse-than-expected OCTG price recovery, (3) higher/lower-thanexpected plant utilisation levels and (4) balance sheet constraints.

MF

*LVMH-Biver says '17 will be better for watchmakers,bottom reached.......+1% *SWATCH-Outlook positive for end-2016 and 2017 says CEO..................+1% *EON-Arms itself against potential hostile attack-Spiegel................+0.25%

*BMW-Raises Venture Capital Unit to €500m vs €100m(i Ventures)...........U/C *ENGIE-Expects to complete €15b divestment plan ahead of deadline........+1% *YOOX-Signs jv with Alabbar to sell Net-a-Porter in Mideast..............+1%

*ARYZTA-Q1 Rev 962.3m(974),FY17 finance rage 80-90m,o/l unch.............-2% *MAERSK-With Dong Energy hire advisers for Oil Unit Merger-S/Times.......+1% *SIEMENS-Wants younger managers,foregoing some margin 4 jobs.............U/C *NOVARTIS-Sandoz is looking for acq's but will not buy Amneal............U/C *ACTELION-FAZ says J&J could bid CHF250 a share,bidding war ?............+2% *DEUT POST-CEO sees 10% increase in holiday deliveries,8m a day..........+0.5% *LHA-More strikes Tues/Weds also talks over insolvency plan..............-1.5% *OSRAM-Siemens doesn't see its 17.5% stake as strategic anymore..........-0.5% *STABILUS-Rev 206.5m(204),Ebit 29.1m(28.3),Margin 14.1%(13.9),o/l lite...unch

CS

Aberdeen +2-3% Op Prof £328m cons £313m, AuM ahead, outflows lower

Aryzta -2% Sales €962.3m vs cons €973.4m, confirm FY guidance

Banco Pop -2% CS reiterate UNDERPERFORM (Over exposure to property)

Cap & Count UNCH On course to achieve its ERV target of £100 million

Engie +1% Plans to complete E15bn divestments ahead of schedule, CEO

Galenica +3-5% FDA removes warning for Veltassa (potassium removal drug)

Ladbrokes M/P Could bid for Tabcorp Holdings Ltd, Mail on Sunday

Miners -1% Copper +2.00%, Brent -1.20%, Iron Ore +1.80%, China +0.50%

RBS -1-2% May struggle to sell all of Williams & Glynn, S. Telegraph

Umicore M/P Completes sale of zinc units to U.S. private equity firm

ML

ICADE - CMD. Revise '16 guide upwards, expect EPS +7-8% v over +3% (65).....+3% 

ABERDEEN - EPS 20.7 beat v cons 19.3p but mainly on one-off FX gains (294)+2-3% 

CAPCO - Remain on track for £100m ERV at Covent Garden by end 2017 (270p)...+2% 

ANTO - Sell Michilla mine to a local mining co for $52m & copper +2% (730)..+1% 

TEF - In talks to sell a stake in its infrastructure biz; Economista (8)....+1% 

ENGIE - Expects to complete E15bn divestment plan ahead of '18 deadline (12)+1% 

WIRECARD - Small positive. Launch of open loop prepaid card in India (43)...+1% 

BATS - BUY. Inflection points could support potential TSR of 100% (44.5)....+1% 

NATIONAL GRID - UK ministers back off threats to break up the co (928p)...+0.5% 

DONG - Hire advisors to start work on merger of oil ops with Maersk (243)...u/c 

MINERS - Copper +2%, Iron Ore +1.4% with BHP OZ -2.6% and RIO OZ -1.1%......u/c 

LVMH - Said to be in talks to buy cyclewear co Rapha: Mail on Sunday (169)..u/c 

MAERSK - Hire advisors to start work on merger of oil ops with Dong (9230)..u/c 

ENI - Agree to sell 10% stake in their Egypitan Gas block holding (12.77)...u/c 

ITALIAN BANKS - Up to 8 banks risk failing if Renzi loses ref; FT reports.-0.5% 

INGENICO - -ve.Verifone announces expansion of Worldpay partnership (72.8)-0.5% LADBROKES - Spec weighs up bid for Australian betting giant Tabcorp (124.5).-1% 

LUFTHANSA - Woes continue. Pilots to strike again on Tues & Weds (12.48)....-1%

Friday Close : Dow +0.36% S&P+0.39% Nasdaq +0.34% Russell +0.38% BEst Sector : Conglomerates Worst : Basic Materials

JPY leads in an active FX session as USD falls across the board amid growing uncertainty going into Wednesday OPEC meeting and Sunday referendum in Italy and elections in Austria; US presidential transition wrinkled by potential Clinton challenge of polls in battleground states. Fillon victorious in France center-right primaries; Juppe concedes. Crude oil falls as much as 2% on reports Saudi energy min no longer sees the need for production cuts ahead of Wednesday meeting in Vienna; Ministers to hold preliminary talks in Russia on Monday.

Nikkei -0.13% Hang Seng +0.94% CSI +0.60% Shanghai +0.64%

Eur$ 1.0643 CNH 6.9233 CNY 6.9027 JPY 112.04 GBP 1.2498 CHF 1.0102 RUB 64.7462 WTI$ 45.95 -0.26%

S&P -0.20% EuroStoxx +0.13% FTSE +0.02% Dax -0.10% SMI +0.06%

- VIE FP : Veolia Fires Water Executive and Auditor, Echos Says

*ASOS Raised to Buy at Goldman, PT 6200p

*CNH Industrial Raised to Neutral at Piper Jaffray, PT $8

*Husqvarna Raised to Hold at Nordea Securities, PT SEK70

*Inwido Raised to Hold at Nordea Securities, PT SEK97

*Italgas Rated New Hold at Jefferies, PT EU3.40

*Meyer Burger Technology Raised to Neutral at Citi, PT CHF1.90

*Ophir Energy Raised to Outperform at Macquarie

*Prologis Raised to Outperform at Baird, PT $55

*Terna Raised to Buy at Jefferies, PT EU4.50

*TGS Raised to Neutral at UBS, PT NOK170

>>> Down

*CNH Industrial Cut to Neutral at MedioBanca, PT EU8.70

*Europris Cut to Neutral at Goldman, PT NOK40

*Heijmans Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT EU5.50

*Man Group Cut to Neutral at Exane, PT 120p

*Pets at Home Cut to Neutral at Goldman, PT 235p

*Snam Cut to Hold at Jefferies, PT EU3.70

>>> PT Change

>>> Initiation

*ADLER Real Estate Rated New Hold at Jefferies, PT EU14

*ADO Properties Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT EU38

*Deutsche Wohnen Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT EU35

*Grand City Properties Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT EU19

*LEG Immobilien Rated New Buy at Jefferies, PT EU84

*Multiconsult Rated New Buy at Nordea Securities, PT NOK130

*Restaurant Group Rated New Reduce at HSBC, PT GBP2.90

*TAG Immobilien Rated New Hold at Jefferies, PT EU12

*Tele Columbus Rated New Overweight at Barclays, PT EU9.20

*Thule Rated New Neutral at UBS, PT SEK130

*Vonovia Rated New Hold at Jefferies, PT EU32

>>> Call

>> Sector

*EUROPE INSURANCE UPPED TO IN-LINE VS CAUTIOUS AT MORGAN STANLEY