Challenges : Les cinq défis de l’aéronautique française pour 2017

Lors de ses vœux à la presse, le président du Gifas, Marwan Lahoud, a détaillé les grands défis de la filière aéronautique et militaire française. Et lancé des appels clairs aux candidats à l'élection présidentielle.

Le secteur aéronautique? "Une oasis dans un monde qui craque de partout", a résumé jeudi 5 janvier Marwan Lahoud, président du Gifas (Groupement des industries françaises aéronautiques et spatiales) et directeur général délégué à l’international d’Airbus, lors de ses vœux à la presse. De fait, la filière de l’aviation affiche plutôt des problèmes de riche, avec 10.000 avions à livrer en dix ans. Mais les challenges restent nombreux, entre la hausse des cadences de production, l'internationalisation et les incertitudes sur le soutien public à la recherche et la fiscalité. Focus sur les cinq défis de la filière en 2017.

1. Réussir la montée en cadence de la production
Le chiffre a de quoi donner le tournis. Avec 10.000 avions neufs à livrer en dix ans, l’industrie va devoir produire autant d’appareils en une décennie qu’Airbus en 42 ans d’existence… Le défi de la montée en cadence de la production reste donc entier. "Nous allons devoir passer du statut de bijoutiers géniaux à celui de véritables industriels", résume Patrick Daher, président de l’équipementier Daher et président du Groupe des équipements aéronautiques et de défense (GEAD) du GIFAS.
Les entreprises du secteur vont donc devoir continuer d’investir massivement pour suivre le rythme: numérisation de l’outil de production, impression 3D… "Si la filière française des équipementiers aéronautiques n'investit pas massivement dans le numérique, elle perdra son leadership mondial d'ici 7 à 8 ans", prédit même Patrick Daher. Problème: les PME du secteur, avec 20 millions d'euros de chiffre d’affaires en moyenne, sont trop petites face à ce défi: une taille de 100 millions d’euros serait l’idéal, indique Bertrand Lucereau, président de la PME Secamic et président du comité Aéro-PME du Gifas.
2. Renforcer le soutien public à la recherche
La filière aéronautique va aussi devoir composer avec un soutien public à la recherche en chute libre. "Le Crédit Impôt Recherche (CIR) marche très bien, tout le reste est en train de s’effondrer", résume Marwan Lahoud. Le budget de la DGAC consacré à la recherche aéronautique a été divisé par trois depuis 2012, passant de 150 millions d’euros à 50 millions en 2017.
Un décrochage face à l’Allemagne (150 millions par an de 2017 à 2020) et le Royaume-Uni (190 millions). La filière française ne peut plus compter sur le soutien du plan d’investissements d’avenir (PIA), qui n’a plus de chapitre aéronautique alors que ce dernier représentait 100 millions d’euros en 2012. "Le besoin pour nous est de 150 millions d’euros par an", estime Marwan Lahoud.
3. Augmenter le budget de défense
Objectif: 2% du PIB, le plus vite possible. La France n’a que trop traîné à endosser l’objectif de l’Otan, défini en 2014 lors du sommet de Newport, estime Marwan Lahoud. "Il y a eu, depuis 1990, une baisse continue de la part de la richesse nationale consacrée à la défense, indique le patron du Gifas. On est aujourd’hui au plancher, il ne faut pas que ça continue".
Le budget de défense doit donc repasser de 1,78% à 2% du PIB au plus vite, pour répondre au "besoin capacitaire de défense et de sécurité", assure Marwan Lahoud. L’investissement dans les études en amont doit lui aussi être boosté, estime le Gifas, à 1 milliard d’euros, contre 720 millions prévus en 2017.
4. Stabiliser le cadre fiscal
L’appel aux présidentiables est clair: la filière aéronautique réclame une stabilisation des dispositifs fiscaux, après des années de créativité fiscale durement vécues. "Entre 2010 et 2015, il y a eu 40 taxes nouvelles pour les entreprises, c’est insupportable", s’enflamme Bertrand Lucereau.
Le Gifas réclame aussi un dispositif "plus cohérent" que celui de l’actuel CICE. Celui-ci, plafonné à 2,5 fois le SMIC, ne concerne qu’un tiers des effectifs du secteur aéronautique. Enfin, la sanctuarisation du CIR est jugée essentielle: "Ça, c’est un truc qui marche très bien, estime Marwan Lahoud. Quand on regarde les dispositifs comparables en Allemagne, au Royaume-Uni ou aux Etats-Unis, le CIR joue un rôle très important dans le maintien des capacités de recherche en France".
5. Accélérer à l'international
Si la filière aéronautique française réalise 84% de son chiffre d’affaires à l’international, le chiffre tombe à 29% pour les seules PME. La marge de progression est donc encore importante pour la première filière exportatrice française (30,6 milliards d’euros d’excédent commercial en 2015).
Mais cette volonté d’accélérer à l’export risque de se heurter aux possibles mesures protectionnistes que pourrait mettre en place la future administration Trump aux Etats-Unis. "Toute barrière douanière est un problème pour nous, reconnaît Marwan Lahoud. Nous suivons cette question de près".

FT : Sweden’s new business king takes the long-term view

Sweden’s new business king takes the long-term view
Fredrik Lundberg is seeking to move Industrivarden on from a business jet scandal

Sweden has a new business king. Fredrik Lundberg, a quietly spoken and reserved 65-year-old, has in the past few years taken steps to dominate the country’s financial and industrial landscape.

Following a business jet scandal that unleashed upheaval at Swedish companies, Mr Lundberg has strengthened his control over an empire that involves big shareholdings in everything from the country’s largest bank, construction group and steelmaker, to the world’s second-largest truckmaker.
His influence at the likes of Handelsbanken, Skanska, SSAB and Volvo Group stems from his role as chairman of Industrivarden, one of two big Swedish investment companies that dominate the Stockholm stock exchange. He is also chief executive of Lundbergs, his family investment company that is Industrivarden’s biggest shareholder.
In a rare interview, Mr Lundberg shrugs off accolades describing him as Sweden’s most powerful businessman.
“I don’t bother about these type of things,” he says. “I try to concentrate on trying to do a good job and act in a way that is value-creating. To be able to create value in the way we do, you have to take a long-term view.”
To this end, Mr Lundberg does not pull his punches when talking about companies that Industrivarden has invested in.
Take Ericsson, one of the world’s leading telecoms equipment makers that Industrivarden has a 15 per cent stake in, and that is struggling with fierce competition.
Mr Lundberg says: “From a shareholder’s point of view, we are not happy and we are not satisfied with the development, and we hope for changes.”
The shake-up has already begun, soon after Industrivarden voiced public criticism of Ericsson, under-fire chief executive Hans Vestberg was ousted last July.
The firing was only the latest in an extraordinary amount of bloodletting at Swedish boardrooms associated with Industrivarden in the past two years.
The spark for the upheaval was allegations about the frivolous use of business jets by managers both of Industrivarden and the groups that the investment company has stakes in.
Mr Lundberg declines to comment on the scandal, but other people in the Industrivarden empire say the real problem at the investment company was not the use of business jets but rather the concentration of power in the hands of Sverker Martin-Lof and Anders Nyren, its former chairman and chief executive.
The two sat on the boards of most of the eight listed companies where Industrivarden is a big shareholder. Cross-shareholdings often complicated responsibilities. Handelsbanken, where Mr Nyren was chairman, was a big shareholder in Industrivarden, where Mr Martin-Lof held the same role.
Sverker Martin-Lof (left) and Anders Nyren © EPA ,
In the spring of 2015, first Mr Martin-Lof and then Mr Nyren were pushed aside by Industrivarden’s board and shareholders, leaving Mr Lundberg to become chairman. Mr Martin-Lof complained at the time that the events were “coup-like”.
Mr Lundberg has since moved quickly to sort out the empire. Outsiders were brought in as chief executives of Volvo, Sandvik, the mining equipment maker, and Industrivarden itself, while new chairmen have been appointed at five of the investment company’s eight holdings. The cross-shareholdings have been dismantled, with both Handelsbanken and SCA, the paper maker, selling stakes in Industrivarden under their new chairmen.
Mr Lundberg portrays Industrivarden as an active and long-term shareholder that engages with the companies it has stakes in at board level, rather than through management.
“It’s very important that we concentrate on choosing the right people in the boards and try to find out what the most important topics for each company are, the value-creating topics,” he says.

Mr Lundberg praises the Swedish system under which there is a clear delineation of functions: the top shareholders propose board members for the annual meeting to vote on, while the board chooses the management.
Another important part of the system is a split between so-called A and B shares, with the former often conferring greater voting rights — arrangements that have been controversial with some US and UK investors in the past.
Unsurprisingly, Mr Lundberg defends the system. “It’s important for every company to have one of a few big shareholders who take a long-term view and long-term responsibility.”
A rival of Mr Lundberg’s at the top of Swedish business says: “Fredrik is very smart and very discreet. When he doesn’t like something he is pretty persuasive.”
Joacim Olsson, head of Aktiespararna, the Swedish association for private investors, says Mr Lundberg “has delivered great returns to shareholders over a long period of time”. He goes on to call him “a perfect example of an active long-term owner”, something he finds important amid the rise of more short-term institutional investors.
Investors in Lundbergs, which has only 10 employees, have seen its shares almost quadruple in the past seven years. The discount to net asset value — a measure for how big the discrepancy is between the value of an investment company’s holdings and its share price — has been erased in the past two years, leading Lundbergs to now have a small and rare premium.
Industrivarden’s share performance has lagged behind that of Investor, Sweden’s other leading investment company run by the Wallenberg family, in the past five years. However, since Mr Lundberg’s appointment as chairman of Industrivarden in 2015, the gap has narrowed modestly.
Mr Lundberg acknowledges there is more work to be done by him and Helena Stjernholm, Industrivarden’s chief executive. “We have come a bit of the way. But . . . you don’t change companies in one year,” he says.
He suggests a number of areas for improvement at the companies that Industrivarden owns stakes in.
One is finding the right organisational structure. He praises both Handelsbanken and Skanska for their decentralised organisations, adding that Volvo, Sandvik and Ericsson could all benefit from such arrangements.
Another priority is having strong finances with not too much debt, and Industrivarden is cutting its borrowings. “In all companies, it’s very important to have a strong balance sheet,” says Mr Lundberg. “Then you don’t get dependent on banks . . . It’s also nice to be able to sleep at night.”
Shareholder insists on staying in control
When Fredrik Lundberg entered the Swedish business founded by his father in 1977, it was focused on real estate and construction. The younger Mr Lundberg wanted to diversify so Lundbergs soon went into finance, venture capital, real estate and smaller industrial groups.
A slimming down of the company in the 1990s led Mr Lundberg to concentrate purely on real estate and investments in Sweden.
Real estate was moved into a wholly-owned subsidiary — now run by Mr Lundberg’s 37-year-old daughter, Louise Lindh — while Lundbergs holds stakes in eight listed companies.
Through its 23 per cent stake in Industrivarden, Lundbergs has exposure to 13 listed groups in total. “That is a good diversification, not too many and not too few,” says Mr Lundberg.
Associates say Mr Lundberg likes to be hands-on: for instance, taking a flight to check up on a Skanska building site in Poland.
Mr Lundberg also insists on staying in control. Unlike the other big family-run investment company in Sweden — controlled by the Wallenbergs — Mr Lundberg and his relatives own their stakes in Lundbergs directly rather than through a foundation.
Both his daughters, who together have five children, serve on the boards of some of the companies that Lundbergs has stakes in.
Family-run companies can run into problems due to squabbling, and Mr Lundberg concedes there could be practical issues for Lundbergs in the “fifth, sixth or seventh generation”, but that will not be a concern for him. He adds, pointedly: “I will try to be in business for quite a long time yet.”

FT : It was another great year for investors who avoid hedge funds

It was another great year for investors who avoid hedge funds
For the seventh year running highly paid experts were worse than simple index funds

Amid the tweets and bonfire of expertise last year, did you notice the worldwide boom in asset prices?

For instance, a non-exhaustive list of ways an investor might have increased their wealth by more than a tenth in 2016 includes: crude oil; the major stock market indices for the US, UK, Brazil and Russia; Emerging market equities as a whole; pretty much any high yielding corporate bond market; sugar, silver and copper; even gilts, debt of the UK government.

Yet the premium part of the asset management industry, cosseting its sharpest minds in the most luxurious offices, had another dismal year. The average investor in a hedge fund, according to data provider HFR, saw their money grow a mere 2.5 per cent last year, only slightly more than investors handed over in fees, of roughly $65bn.

The immediate question might be how so many hedge fund managers failed to do better. Places to lose money were scarce in 2016 for anyone who didn’t place a bet on sterling ahead of the UK vote to leap from the EU. Wheat prices, companies reliant on the British economy, and stocks listed in Shanghai top a small list of ways to have substantially reduced wealth.

A bigger question, however, is why the investment performance of hedge funds has been so poor for so long.

It may be because exposing the mediocrity runs into a problem of measurement. There is no perfect way to assess a diverse industry made up of as many as 10,000 funds. Clever investment managers are a cohort, not an asset class.

A portfolio of investments in hedge funds is also a weird concept: we’d like the average ability of a group of people to make investment decisions, chosen for their historic ability to do so even though academic studies show past performance genuinely is no guide to the future, please. Various fee-generating businesses exist by presenting such weirdness as a challenge to be solved by consultants, advisers and banks.

Still, one low bar for measurement is a simple combination of cheap index funds, say $60 in US stocks and $40 in Vanguard’s Total Bond Fund each year: in 2016 it became $108. Indeed, in each of the past seven years the index funds were the better choice than $100 managed by the average hedge fund, weighted by assets and again using HFR numbers.

Expert money managers did have a good financial crisis on this measure, but have been considerably outpaced since. Over the past decade $100 using the dual index fund approach became $184, while the average hedge fund investor would be left with perhaps $159.

The first reason is fees: investors paid at least $34 to hedge funds over the decade, to see their money grow by $59, based on conservative estimates for typical costs and not including the expense of choosing or monitoring the hedge fund managers.

Second is a collapse in interest rates, which has been good for simple bond funds but made life hard for hedge funds, as cash balances they hold while shorting stocks or doing other complex activities no longer offer easy income.

Technology and regulation are also part of the challenge. Information is much more freely available than in the past, and in some ways it is easier to trade. Profitable market niches tend not to last when as many as 10,000 hedge funds with $3tn to invest are all looking for them.

Post-crisis rule changes to restrict trading by investment banks have also, arguably, introduced more random movement to markets. Such temporary swings are a problem due to another group who deserve blame: the pension and sovereign wealth funds who invest in hedge funds.

These so-called institutional investors tend to prefer large and respectable looking hedge funds, and can be alarmed by paper losses which are taken as a signal of poor risk management. The result is hedge funds focused on not doing anything stupid which might cause the big investors to take their money away.

An overabundance of caution does not lend itself to reliable investment growth. Instead, collect management fees, talk darkly about future crisis and hope investors do not notice how well they could have done without you.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • KSS -14.6%, (lowers FY17 guidance to $3.60-3.65 from $3.80-4.00 vs $3.93 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; Nov-Dec comps -2.1%), RECN -13.2%
  • M -11.2%, (Macy's lowers FY17 EPS; comparable sales on an owned plus licensed basis declined by 2.1 percent in the months of November and December 2016; announces actions to streamline store portfolio, intensify cost efficiency efforts and execute real estate strategy)
  • MG -8.8%, LB -5.5%, MC -5.4%, (Moelis sees Q4 revs above consensus; raises dividend to $0.37/share from $0.32/share; commenced public offering of 5,000,000 shares of Class A common stock)
  • CATO -5.4%, AEO -4.8%, RPM -1.5%,

Select retail related names showing weakness following Macy's and Kohl's comps:

  • JWN -7.5%, JCP -5.4%, FOSL -4.6%, DDS -3.9%

Other news:

  • AEZS -32.7% (reports the confirmatory Phase 3 clinical trial of Macrilen (macimorelin) failed to achieve its objective of validating a single oral dose of macimorelin for the evaluation of growth hormone deficiency in adults )
  • HRTX -9.7% (announces 'positive' topline results from its Phase 2 study of HTX-011 in subjects undergoing abdominoplasty; 'demonstrated statistically significant reductions in both pain intensity and the use of opioid rescue medications through 96 hours following surgery'
  • KNOP -8.5% (commences 2.5 mln common units offering)
  • OREX -8.5% (after 64% move higher on Wednesday)
  • HLX -5.1% (Helix Energy commences public offering of 21 mln shares of common stock; discloses impairment charge and delayed in-service for Siem Helix 1 update), BKE -3.4% (reports December comps of -15.5% vs -5.4% year ago and -16.2% last month
  • KRC -1.5% (commences 3.5 mln common stock offering)
  • HPP -1.3% (announced offering of 18,673,808 shares of common stock pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement )
  • LOXO -1.2% (prices 3.87 mln common stock offering at $31.00/share)

Analyst comments:

  • UAL -1.9% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • UNXL +6.7%, BKS +5.7%, ALXN +5.6%, (files previously delayed Form 10-Q; Audit / Finance Committee concluded that the previously issued financial results do not require restatement)
  • PLCE +1.9%, AR +0.7%, (capital budget for 2017 is $1.5 billion, including $1.3 billion for drilling and completion and $200 million for core leasehold additions and extensions; Net production is expected to average 2,160 to 2,250 MMcfe/d in 2017, representing year-over-year growth of 20% to 25% relative to 2016 guidance),

M&A news:

  • CEB +21.2% (to be acquired by Gartner (IT) for $2.6 billion in cash and stock)

Select oil/gas related names showing strength:

  • AUY +3.6%, AG +3.1%, GDX +2.1%, ABX +2.1%, GG +2%, NEM +1.8%, GLD +1.1%

Other news:

  • PIRS +28.6% (Pieris Pharmaceuticals and Servier to jointly pursue several bispecific therapeutic programs including its' proprietary dual checkpoint inhibitor PRS-332; co to receive $31.3 mln upfront, up to $539 mln in success-based payments )
  • CTIC +24.7% (FDA removes full clinical hold for Pacritinib )
  • KOOL +17.2% (eceives FDA approval for significant revisions to its pivotal study for treatment of Critical Limb Ischemia )
  • HALO +15.5% (announces phase 2 study in advanced pancreas cancer meets key endpoints in topline results from the combined analysis of Stages 1 and 2 and Stage 2 alone of its HALO 202 study)
  • GNCA +13.7% (announces 'positive' clinical results from a planned interim analysis of its ongoing placebo-controlled Phase 2b trial evaluating GEN-003 )
  • SHLD +10.8% (after closing near highs of the day +7%),
  • SYN +10% (announces 'positive' topline data from its Phase 2b clinical trial for SYN-004; met its primary endpoint of significantly reducing C. difficile Infection)
  • ARNA +6% (Arena Pharm sells all of its rights to develop and market lorcaserin to Eisai for a reduced amount than previously announced; enters into equity distribution agreement to sell & issue $50 mln in shares of common stock with Citigroup Global Markets)
  • RT +3.7% (continued strength)
  • GALE +3.4% (provided a corporate and clinical outlook for 2017 and announced that Mark W. Schwartz President and CEO will give a company presentation at the Biotech Showcase 2017),

Analyst comments:

  • EVOK +12.3% (upgraded to Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; tgt raised to $6)
  • SGYP +2.1% (initiated with a Outperform at Oppenheimer)