Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Volatile Week on a Lower NoteThe stock market ended a volatile week on a lower note as participants responded to a downturn in European banking names and a hotter-than-expected reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%) settled behind the S&P 500 (-0.4%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%). For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.5% while the Nasdaq surged 2.3%.
European markets led to the downside as financials paced the retreat. Deutsche Bank (DB 13.37, -1.39) was under pressure after the U.S. Department of Justice proposed that the bank pay $14 billion in order to settle civil claims associated with the residential mortgage-backed securities crisis. Deutsche Bank has since announced that it is negotiating with the Justice Department to have the penalty reduced.
The future path of interest rate normalization was also in focus as investors assessed another round of inflation data for August. Total CPI increased 0.2% (consensus +0.1%) in August while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, jumped 0.3% (consensus +0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, CPI has increased 1.1% while core CPI is up 2.3%. The report signaled that inflation is firming, which underpinned a similar observation in yesterday's in-line core PPI reading.
Fed funds futures ticked higher following the inflation data, however, rate hike expectations remain tempered for next week's policy meeting. The implied probability of an interest rate hike at the September meeting increased to 15.0% from 12.0% in the prior session. Meanwhile, the implied probability of an interest rate hike at the December meeting rose to 52.9% from yesterday's 47.4% likelihood. The U.S. Dollar Index (96.06, +0.77, +0.81%) and short term Treasury yields also gained on the news.
The S&P 500 (-0.4%) remained pressured throughout the session as participants continued to assess a resurgence in volatility ahead of central bank policy meetings next week. Other factors impacting today's trade included a downturn in crude oil futures and another mixed performance from the Treasury complex. The energy (-0.9%) and financial (-0.9%) sectors ended with the largest losses while health care (+0.1%) and utilities (+0.9%) finished with the only gains.
In the financial sector (-0.9%), money center banks underperformed as Citigroup (C 46.41, -0.67) and Wells Fargo (WFC 45.43, -0.72) declined 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. Wells Fargo was under pressure after being downgraded to "Underweight" from "Neutral" at Atlantic Equities. The stock declined 6.8% this week amid concerns regarding its sales practices. The broader space fell 1.3% this week, leading only energy (-0.9%; week-to-date: -2.9%) over that time.
The commodity-sensitive energy sector (-0.9%) was under pressure as crude oil extended its recent losing streak. The energy component ended the day lower by 1.9% ($43.04/bbl; -$0.81), extending its weekly loss to 6.2%. In the sector, Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM 84.03, -1.05) and Chevron (CVX 97.84, -1.66) each finished behind the price-weighted index. The broader sector has declined 1.7% so far in September.
The technology sector (-0.3%) finished ahead of the broader market as the group pulled back from a larger weekly gain. Apple (AAPL 114.92, -0.65) finished lower by 0.6%, narrowing its weekly gain to 11.4%. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL 38.92, -1.94) fell 4.8% after missing bottom-line estimates for the quarter and issuing disappointing second-quarter guidance.
In the health care space (+0.1%), health care plan providers outperformed as Anthem (ANTM 125.52, +1.18) and CIGNA (CI 131.99, +3.35) gained 1.0% and 2.6%, respectively. The names outperformed following reports that the Department of Justice has dropped a claim in the lawsuit to block their potential merger. Separately, Abbott Labs (ABT 41.87, +0.75) gained 1.8% after Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 118.25, -0.38) agreed to acquire Abbott's Medical Optics division for $4.325 billion in cash.
Treasuries ended on a mixed note with the short end of the curve demonstrating relative weakness. The yield on the 2-yr note rose four basis points to 0.77% while the yield on the 10-yr note finished flat at 1.69%. The spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr note expanded to 92 basis points from 89 basis points last Friday.
Today's participation was above the recent average as more than two billion shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included CPI for August and the Michigan Sentiment Index for September:
- Total CPI increased 0.2% in August (consensus +0.1%) while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% (consensus +0.2%).
- On a year-over-year basis, CPI is up 1.1% (vs. +0.8% in July), while core CPI is up 2.3% (vs. +2.2% in July).
- Consumer inflation is firming (as is producer price inflation) and there is some data-based rationalization in the core CPI rate for the Fed to raise the fed funds rate.
- However, the Fed keys in on the PCE Price Index as its primary inflation gauge and that index -- both total and core -- still shows consumer inflation below the Fed's 2 percent objective.
- The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for September was unchanged from the final August reading, holding at 89.8.
Monday's economic data will be limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index (consensus 59), which will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.
- Russell 2000: +7.8% YTD
- S&P 500: +4.7% YTD
- Nasdaq: +4.7% YTD
- Dow Jones: +4.0% YTD
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1983Laurence D. Fink presides over one of the first collateralized mortgage obligation deals on Wall Street — a $1 billion offering by Freddie Mac.
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1986Mr. Fink loses $100 million in a mortgage bet gone bad.
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1988Mr. Fink and seven other executives start an investment group focused on buying bonds under the umbrella of the private equity firm Blackstone.
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1992The firm adopts the name BlackRock and oversees $17 billion.
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1994General Electric contracts BlackRock’s Aladdin risk platform to wind down the brokerage firm Kidder, Peabody & Company.
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1999BlackRock goes public with $165 billion in assets under management.
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2003Mr. Fink, a New York Stock Exchange board member, is embroiled in a dispute over the pay of Richard A. Grasso, the exchange’s chief.
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2006BlackRock acquires Merrill Lynch’s investment management division, gaining a large equity business. Assets under management are $1.1 trillion.
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2007Mr. Fink is nearly named chief executive of Merrill Lynch.
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2009Treasury hires BlackRock to analyze toxic securities.
- BlackRock acquires Barclays Global Investors and its exchange-traded funds. BlackRock manages E.T.F.s with $495 billion of the E.T.F. market’s overall $777 billion. BlackRock’s total assets under management swell to $3.3 trillion.
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2013BlackRock’s E.T.F.s reach $752 billion. The overall E.T.F. market is $1.6 trillion. BlackRock’s total assets under management are $4 trillion.
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2016In August, BlackRock stock hits a new high. Its E.T.F.s are worth $1.1 trillion, while the overall E.T.F. market grows to $2.3 trillion. BlackRock’s total assets under management reach $5 trillion.
Latest GOAL note.
Negative macro surprises and the global bond sell-off since n last week have driven a reversal of the ‘Goldilocks’ summer rally. Risk parity and balanced funds suffered in particular, with a sharp increase in equity/bond correlations. We think bond yields will increase more until year-end, and downgrade bonds to Underweight on a 3-month horizon (in line with 12-month). However, while rate volatility could pick up in the near term, we expect the most pressure in the back end and continued anchoring of the front end by central banks next week.
We remain defensive in our asset allocation and Overweight cash (3m) due to elevated valuations across assets and the risk of shocks. However, we upgrade equities back to Neutral on a 3m basis due to support from still low rates and optimism on fiscal easing stabilising LT growth expectations. We continue to expect ‘fat and flat’ returns but our equity strategists now forecast less negative returns. Risks are still skewed to the downside in the near term, in our view, owing to more bullish positioning and the fading ‘Goldilocks’ backdrop. However, we see a lack of catalysts for a material drawdown. We move S&P 500 (3m & 12m) and STOXX Europe 600 (3m) to Underweight within equities. Japan is Neutral 3m, Overweight 12m. Asia is our preferred equity region – we are Overweight MSCI Asia ex Japan for both 3m and 12m.
We still prefer credit to equity due to better asymmetry of returns. More positive asymmetry for equities would require a better growth/rates mix, with rates volatility easing.We have a stable growth outlook until year-end and macro volatility has been low. With central banks anchoring rates and a pick-up in macro data, we would expect equities to stabilise. The sensitivity to US 10-year yields across assets is close to the highest level since the 1990s. And risky assets tend to benefit from higher rates as long as they come alongside better growth; the correlation of risky assets with US breakeven inflation is more positive than with real yields. But, elevated rate volatility often results in a negative correlation of equities with higher yields initially.