NY Post : Hedge fund to close doors due to ‘unpredictable’ markets

The hedge fund industry’s woes have hit home for Richard Perry.

The New York hedgie told investors on Monday that he is closing down his flagship fund after 28 years, citing “unpredictable” markets.

The announcement, in a letter to investors, comes at a tumultuous time in the hedge fund industry — where performance lags the S&P 500, and the so-called “2 and 20” fee structure is under attack.

The 62-year-old investor’s firm has lost 60 percent of its assets under management over the past two years — and last year, the main fund was off 12 percent.

As of Sept. 1, the fund had $4.1 billion in assets under management and was down 2.5 percent year-to-date, according to sources.

“Although I continue to believe very strongly in our investments, process and team, the industry and market headwinds against us have been strong, and the timing for success in our positions too unpredictable,” Perry wrote.

Despite delivering an annualized return of 10.7 percent since its inception, the flagship fund’s recent performance has not been upbeat.

Perry Capital investors can expect to have a “substantial amount” of the fund’s capital returned to them next month.

The remaining assets will be sold in an “orderly fashion” to avoid moving the markets by selling them off all at once. Some of the fund’s more liquid assets are expected to be sold off over the next two to three months, while others could take more than a year to unwind.

Perry expects to keep a core team in place in order to “prudently manage” the selling of the remaining assets.

The flagship fund had positions in Ally Financial, AIG, Ball Corp., Johnson & Johnson, St. Jude Medical and Time Warner in the most recent quarter, regulatory filings show.

The fund is also believed to be invested in Barneys New York, and the fate of that investment could not be learned at deadline.

Perry, married to fashion designer Lisa Perry, had been pumping money into the money-losing chain. In recent months, he had hired Goldman Sachs to shop a minority stake in the upscale retailer, according to reports.

The troubles surrounding the pop-art loving Perry could cause problems for the New York-based specialty store, which could include a second trip to bankruptcy court or a sale, say sources.

“If Perry Capital is in trouble, Barneys is in trouble,” said a source close to the luxury retailer. Further complicating matters is the fact that Barneys flagship stores in New York on Madison Avenue and in Beverly Hills are expiring by 2019 and are facing a tripling of their rents.

Barneys executives are in Milan for fashion week and unavailable for comment, said a spokeswoman.

Perry could not be reached for comment.

>>> Centrica in process of selling Canada oil and gas assets: spokesman

Centrica in process of selling Canada oil and gas assets: spokesman

Centrica (CNA.L), Britain's largest utility company, is in the process of selling all of its Canadian oil and gas assets and exiting operations in the country, a company spokesman said on Monday.
Centrica and its joint venture partner, Qatar Petroleum, started the sales in process in July, spokesman Ross Davidson said, and will dispose of the natural gas assets purchased from Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO) in 2013 for C$1 billion ($758.04 million).
North American natural gas prices have plummeted since then due to oversupply and Centrica said last year it no longer saw Canadian operations, which make up around a third of the company's production, as core to the business.
Centrica produces around 64,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Canada, of which 90 percent is natural gas. The company's operations are focused on southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.
"We are focusing on Europe - Norway, the North Sea and Morecambe Bay," Davidson said. "We have started disposal operations for Canadian assets, but do not know when that's likely to close."
Centrica employs around 500 people in Canada. The country's energy sector has been roiled by mass layoffs and steep cuts in capital spending as companies have struggled to cope with the two-year oil price slump.

Reuters : Volkswagen financial stress is still quite robust

12:19:59 RTRS - VOLKSWAGEN AG VOWG_p.DE SAYS FINANCIAL STRENGTH OF VOLKSWAGEN IS STILL QUITE ROBUST. VOWG.DE VOWG_p.DE

12:20:32 RTRS - VOLKSWAGEN AG VOWG_p.DE SAYS TODAY, THE TOTAL SPECIAL ITEMS RELATING TO DIESEL ISSUE AMOUNTS TO €17.8 BILLION AND ALL CONSEQUENCES OF DIESEL TOPIC KNOWN SO FAR ARE COVERED VOWG.DE VOWG_p.DE

12:20:48 RTRS - VOLKSWAGEN AG VOWG_p.DE SAYS CAN COMMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF PENALTY PAYMENTS ONLY ONCE THE ONGOING PROCEDURES AND INVESTIGATIONS HAVE BEEN WRAPPED UP VOWG.DE VOWG_p.DE

NY Post : ESPN’s deal with the NBA is killing Disney stock

As NBA training camps open Tuesday, one of the league’s most important players has already been placed on disability.

Drexel Hamilton analyst Tony Wible downgraded Disney stock on Monday in response to “a massive increase in NBA costs” for ESPN.

Disney’s deal to televise NBA games, with its increase in step-up costs over last year, could shave as much as 5 percent off pre-tax profits.

ESPN and Turner Sports renewed their TV deal with the NBA for $24 billion in October 2014.

The agreement, which takes effect in October and lasts through the 2024-25 season, works out to $2.7 billion a year — an annual increase of 190 percent over the $930-million-a-year agreement it replaces.

The media-rights windfall has created a new financial reality for the NBA, most notably by boosting the salary cap for each team to $94 million.

The $24-million increase from last year’s cap — the biggest jump the league has seen — has, in turn, created sticker shock.

On July 1, the first day of free agency for eligible NBA players, Mike Conley re-upped with the Memphis Grizzlies for five years.

His $153 million contract was the richest by total value in NBA history, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

And its annual salary of $30 million-plus put him in a league with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant — NBA players who, unlike Conley, had at least made the All-Star team.

(Global Handelsblatt) Schaeffler Begins Industrial Revolution



Schaeffler Begins Industrial Revolution

Schaeffler, the specialist car parts maker that almost buckled under the weight of the acquisition of its rival Continental, now wants to focus on its long-neglected industrial division, bringing precision bearings and components into the digital age

Schaeffler, the privately owned firm best known for producing precision car parts, wants to revive its languishing industrial division, Handelsblatt has learned.

Klaus Rosenfeld, who has been in charge of the company since 2013, wants to intensify a modernization program, titled the Core program, which will see some 500 job cuts and the launch of a range of new products.

Schaeffler has until recently been loaded down with debt, the result of an over-ambitious debt-financed takeover of tire-maker Continental in 2008, a deal badly hit by the financial crisis.

As a result, its recent industrial performance has been grim. Partly because the automotive division has soared, the industrial division now generates only 25 percent of company earnings, down from 40 percent not long ago. Insiders hint that long-serving former chief executive Jürgen Geissinger was very much a car man. Over the years, its other business, as a precision manufacturer of industrial components, has fallen into decline.

Schaeffler is many ways the archetypal company of the German Mittelstand—the swath of mid-sized, family-owned companies, seen as the backbone of the industrial economy.

Mr. Rosenfeld wants to change that.

Stefan Spindler, the head of Schaeffler Industrial, told Handelsblatt it is a tough moment to launch a revival in his sector. “Classic industrial sectors are displaying ongoing weak growth,” he said.

Low commodity prices are holding back investment in extractive industries, and this means less demand for things like Schaeffler conveyor systems. “In the coming years, overall market growth is likely to be subdued,” said Mr. Spindler.

But Schaeffler hopes to overcome obstacles with a dual-pronged approach. On the one hand, rigorous implementation of the Core plan, meaning about 500 job losses in Germany and Europe. It does not plan any more substantial investment in Europe. “But we will really be sharpening up outside Europe — above all in China and the USA,” Mr. Spindler said.

On the other hand, it will also aim to grow through innovation.

Schaeffler has defined eight sectors as key areas of operation. These include classic areas such as wind power, raw materials, aerospace, and railways, but also more exotic and surprising choices, like bicycles. The company has just developed an automatic gearing system for bicycles. “We want to expand the business across urban mobility as a whole: and that’s not just about cars,” Mr. Spindler said.

Schaeffler managers are excited to see if new areas, like bikes, can actually take off. But the wind industry is no experiment: it has central strategic significance. In the southern German city of Schweinfurt, Schaeffler has built a testing facility for the enormous bearings used in wind turbines: these weigh in at seven tons, and are nearly 3 meters (10ft) in diameter.

At this year’s WindEnergy exhibition in Hamburg, the company presented further technical advances, including extra-robust spherical roller bearings. The company is also developing a method for calculating the remaining lifespan of antifriction bearings. For owners of wind farms, these inventions promise real improvements in turbine maintenance.

The wind power sector is consolidating quickly, with the recent merger of Gamesa and Siemens only one example of an industry-wide trend. The sector has flourished in recent years, though Mr. Spindler said the growth will inevitably level off. The most interesting growth potential may ultimately lie in areas such as maintenance and services.

Schaeffler is many ways the archetypal company of the German Mittelstand — the swath of mid-sized, family-owned companies viewed as the backbone of the industrial economy.

With roots in the 19th-century invention of ball-bearings, it is now a high-tech company employing 85,000 people in 50 countries, but still based in the small Bavarian towns of Herzogenaurach and Schweinfurt, and still majority owned by the Schaeffler family.

Like other German industrial companies, Schaeffler faces the challenges of rapid globalization, industrial digitization, and a volatile financial environment

At first glance, Schaeffler’s Schweinfurt factory looks very Old Economy indeed: a tall brick chimney, a lot of steel and heavy trucks. But behind the scenes, digitization is a crucial theme for Schaeffler’s industrial division.

“We see great potential in digitization-related services,” Mr. Spindler said. The company is working on bearings with inbuilt digital sensors, which can be hooked up to a separate monitoring system. The idea is no longer to sell a product-in-a-box, but instead to offer a complete package with service, and where possible, performance guarantees.

We want industry to be a second pillar of strength for Schaeffler.

STEFAN SPINDLER
CEO, SCHAEFFLER INDUSTRIAL
At InnoTrans, the rail industry fair, Schaeffler exhibited a monitoring system with cloud connectivity, developed for rail transportation. Here too, sensors in the bearings measure noise, temperature and rotation speed. As well as in-house innovation, the company is considering takeovers in these sectors: “We are currently working on some smaller acquisitions,” said Mr. Spindler.

Mr. Rosenfeld recently told Handelsblatt the company was again open to acquisitions. In recent years, the focus was very much on reducing the enormous debt burden from the Continental takeover. “We are now in a situation where we have genuine financial flexibility,” said Mr. Rosenfeld. In terms of strategic orientation it was important, he added, to strengthen the company’s technology and make some purchases here and there. But Schaeffler will not be forking out billions: industry insiders suggest acquisitions would be at the level of hundreds of millions of euros.

Mr. Spindler clearly shares his boss’s optimism about the industrial division. He wants to see it restored to its rightful place in the company: “We want industry to be a second pillar of strength for Schaeffler,” he said

(Global Handelsblatt) strict emission: no more diesel in 15y?


Volvo CEO: Strict emissions laws will force European carmakers to stop making diesel vehicles in next 15 years

Increasingly stringent emissions laws will force European automakers to stop manufacturing diesel vehicles in the next 15 years, the chief executive of Swedish automaker Volvo told Handelsblatt in an interview.

“Diesel is becoming more and more expensive,” Håkan Samuelsson said. “We will have to rely on an alternative.”

Mr. Samuelsson said Volvo will unveil an electric car in 2019 and plans to have 1 million of the vehicles on the road within six years.

“In Europe, we won’t see pure internal combustion engines anymore in 15 years,” he said.

The company is moving towards autonomous driving, and electromobility: the two areas where most European car makers see the best returns.

Volvo, which is owned by Chinese company Geely, recently was able to sign a widely-acclaimed collaborative agreement with ride-hailing company Uber, to deliver self-driving cars equipped with technology from Uber.

Mr. Samuelsson said that by 2020 or 2021, autonomous driving will be possible on motorways.

If we are viewed as a luxury brand in Germany, then we can present ourselves everywhere with higher credibility.

HÅKAN SAMUELSSON
CEO, VOLVO
With the simple Scandinavian design of its all-terrain vehicles, Volvo has been able to retain the loyalty of a core of customers. But the company has to attract new buyers in order not to remain a niche player, and is targeting Germany.

“Germany is a key market,” he said. “If we are viewed as a luxury brand in Germany, then we can present ourselves everywhere with higher credibility.”

Mr. Samuelsson, who used to run German truck manufacturer MAN, feels at home in Germany, but he is realistic about Volvo’s chances. He doesn’t expect Volvo to overtake the German premium manufacturers.

“But there are customers who want something else besides an Audi, BMW or Mercedes,” he said.

He hopes to sell 40,000 cars in Germany this year.

Mr. Samuelsson’s company has just introduced the V90 Cross Country, a mixture of sports-utility vehicle and limousine. Volvo’s range of models has been updated. This year, it expects sales to increase by some 10 percent to more than half a million. It’s targeting sales of 800,000 cars by 2020. At that point Volvo will need new factories and models, he said.

(RedBurn) Nestle - Routes to Outperformance

Top management change and a wide-ranging cost-savings programme transform the Nestlé investment case. Not only should margin expansion accelerate but the likelihood of value-creating portfolio change has also materially increased. Over the last 20 years, Nestlé has achieved an annual TSR of 12%. We are now far more confident it can at least sustain this out to 2020. Buy.

 Two critical changes. Our previous report on Nestlé in February struck a subdued
tone. Despite our belief in Nestlé’s fundamental strengths, we lacked confidence
management would make the most of them. Today, a cost-savings programme and
Ulf Mark Schneider’s appointment as CEO make for a usefully different outlook.
 Expect more on margins. Over-and-above its existing savings, Nestlé expects to
achieve 200bp of savings by 2019. With A&P at a peak and evidence from detailed
margin analysis that Nestlé is under-profiting versus its peers, we are confident a
good portion can be retained. This should enable margins to rise c50bp pa to 2020.
 Further value-creation options. Beyond stronger margin expansion, new
management is likely to take a more dispassionate view of the portfolio. Over time,
prospects of further portfolio change and return of surplus capital have clearly
increased. Both of these raise the possibility of a rerating.
 Historic TSR can be sustained. We have raised EPS forecasts 1-5% out to 2020.
Using these new estimates and maintenance of Nestlé’s current multiple, a 12%
TSR over the remainder of the decade is achievable (Fig 1). If portfolio options are
fully exploited, the upside could be materially greater. We upgrade to Buy.

(Exane) Capital goods : A Premium built on fear

The premium valuations of our construction exposed names are built on a fear of disappointment
from elsewhere in the sector. Yet the outlook for construction markets is uncertain too; we see
mixed signals coming from US non-residential and political risk in Europe is rising. Relative to the
Street’s expectations, growth could slow for construction exposed stocks next year, pressurising
their premium valuations. Legrand to Neutral (from O/P). Rexel the only O/P thanks to its self-help.
Mounting uncertainty on US non-residential
During the past six months we have seen mixed signals coming out of the US non-residential
market. Our analysis of the US non-residential market’s various sub-segments points to a
slowdown in the rate of its growth next year rather than an outright downturn. In the post crisis era,
North America has been a bright spot; a slowing of momentum could take many by surprise.
The European recovery is likely to be slower than hoped for, impacted by political risks
European construction activity has started to recover and overall demand remains well below its
normalized trend across a number of countries. However, political risks are likely to rise over the
coming 12 months, impacting the strength of the market’s recovery.
Relative earnings momentum no longer offers support
Over the past 12 months, our construction exposed stocks’ sector relative earnings momentum has
stalled, due to: 1) stabilisation of industrial activity; 2) resilient progression of margins elsewhere in
the sector; 3) a lack of positive surprise from construction volumes. Barring an industrial recession
we see little reason for construction stocks to regain their relative earnings momentum in 2017.
Construction stocks’ premium relative ratings are at risk barring a global recession
Building fittings stocks retain a record high premium rating (40%). We believe this highlights the
quality of those stocks, but also the bearishness of investors in respect of the demand outlook for
the rest of the sector. Barring a recessionary scenario, we struggle to see any relative multiple
expansion or earnings momentum for these companies. Legrand to Neutral from O/P; Kone and
Assa Abloy Neutral. O/P on Rexel reflecting the significant self-help potential in the medium term.

(Exane) Ubisoft : Brothers in Arms

All eyes on 29 September AGM and Vivendi’s hidden agenda
The Guillemot brothers (13.2% of capital, 19.2% of voting rights) will likely face off with Vivendi
(22.6% and 20.6% respectively) for the first time in public at this week’s AGM. The former wish to
keep Ubisoft independent while the latter has not submitted any resolutions despite making clear
that it wants Board representation; Vivendi will likely do so only at the AGM, for reasons unclear to
us (attempt to reduce opposition, wait-and-see attitude, wish for a gentlemen’s agreement?).

A creeping takeover by Vivendi: the worst case but still an unlikely scenario
A creeping takeover by Vivendi is clearly the worst case for our call on Ubisoft but this looks
unlikely (10% probability in our view vs 70% for Vivendi failing to enter the Board). We think that
Ubisoft investors are unlikely to back Vivendi given the potential conflict of interest and Mr Bollore’s
proven track record in creeping takeovers (think Havas, Vivendi, TI). As such, we continue to
believe Vivendi, which seems to have big ambitions in video games, will have to launch a takeover
bid at an attractive valuation (EUR45-50) to gain control of Ubisoft, as it did with Gameloft.

FY16/17 shaping up to be another strong year
After the AGM, investors will likely shift their focus back to operating trends. The positive buzz
surrounding Watch Dogs 2 (due on 15 November) and Ghost Recon Wildlands (8 March) and the
promising reception to the alpha version of For Honor (due in February) reinforce our confidence in
the strong line-up and delivery of guidance for FY16/17e (EUR1,700m sales, EUR230m operating
profit). These new highs should lend credence to the ambitious MT plan (sales of EUR2,300m,
operating profit of EUR440m in FY18/19e or a 20% operating margin).

We remain buyers – stars aligned for a further rerating – TP raised from EUR34 to EUR39.5
A unique play on video gaming listed in Europe, the stock continues to offer reasonable multiples in
our view (14x FY17/18e EBIT vs c.15x for EA and c.16x for Activision, which are trading at
historical highs) in light of its compelling growth story and speculative appeal. Our TP (raised to
EUR39.5) is now based on 12x FY18/19e EBIT of c.EUR440m, discounted back (vs 10x before).