>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: DAIO +19.1%, VCRA +10.9%, SMCI +10.9%, VCRA +10.9%, AMCC +10.3%, OSIS +9.4%, GIMO +9%, SNY +8%, BHI +7.7%, CRUS +7.7%, LOGM+6.7%, GSB +6.4%, NSIT +5.6%, HBI +5.3%, BBU +5.1%, ACTG +4.7%, NGD +4.5%, CYTK +4.2%, CBI +3.9%, AERI +3.7%, SHOR +3.7%, PXLW +3.1%, BIDU+2.8%, CY +2.8%, HUN +2.8%, CLD +2.6%, SYK +2.5%, ENVA +2.2%, WFT +2.1%, EGO +2.1%, DECK +2%, GOOG +2%, EMN +2%, HSY +2%, SKYW +1.9%, IART+1.8%, FTNT +1.8%, LPNT +1.8%, POWI +1.6%, UBS +1.6%, AZPN +1.5%, EXPE +1.5%, AZPN +1.5%, SGEN +1.1%, HIG +1%, SLB +0.8%

Gapping down: SNMX -37.7%, STON -31.5%, YRCW -18%, CEMP -17.3%, NVO -16.2%, DRYS -14.1%, MCK -13.3%, SYNA -11.4%, CENX -11%, NSR -11%, MLNX-9.5%, TDOC -8.1%, HTBK -7.1%, KONA -7%, ARAY -6.5%, CAH -6.4%, EHTH -5.8%, ABC -5.7%, ATEN -5.5%, BOFI -5.1%, DRAD -5.1%, ASGN -4.7%, AMZN-4.4%, BGS -3.9%, LITE -3.6%, BUD -3.5%, MOH -2.9%, RBS -2.7%, ABEV -2.6%, TLGT -2.3%, SPCB -2.3%, AUY -2.2%, OII -2.2%, AMGN -1.7%, AMGN -1.7%,XRX -1.5%, SIMO -1.2%, APO -0.8%, INT -0.7%, FLEX -0.6%, TOT -0.6%

>>> Novo Nordisk on the tape

*NOVO CFO:PRIME BASAL INSULIN IMPACT IN U.S. HAS ’BEEN REALISED’
*NOVO EXECUTIVES SPEAK TO ANALYSTS ON A CONFERENCE CALL
*NOVO CFO SAYS NEGATIVE PRICING ENVIRONMENT IS 2-3% BEYOND 2017
*NOVO SEES U.S. PRESSURE ON MONDERN INSULIN
*NOVO ALSO SEES U.S. PRESSURE ON HUMAN GROWTH HORMONES

(SkyNews) Mystery Chinese predator swoops for upmarket housebuilder Cala

Mystery Chinese predator swoops for upmarket housebuilder Cala
A mystery Chinese bidder has approached Cala Group’s shareholders about a potential £600m takeover, Sky News learns
One of Britain's biggest housebuilders has been approached about a takeover by a mystery Chinese predator ahead of a Government push to deliver 1 million new homes by 2020.

Sky News has learnt that privately-owned Cala Group, which describes itself as the UK's most upmarket major homebuilder, is in early-stage talks with the potential buyer.

Cala's shareholders - Legal & General and Patron Capital, a specialist real estate investor - have engaged Lazard, the investment bank, to advise them on the talks, although people close to the situation cautioned that they may not lead to a deal.

The Chinese buyer, which is understood not to be Vanke Group, the country's biggest residential developer, is said to be being advised by KPMG.

Cala, which this month reported strong financial results for the year ended 30 June, could be worth more than £600m in any transaction, according to analysts.

If a deal does take place, it would represent a vote of confidence in the UK housebuilding sector, as well as underlining the opportunity for overseas buyers to acquire British companies more cheaply since the plunge in the value of sterling after June's EU referendum.

L&G and Patron took control of Cala in 2013 in a deal valuing the company at £210m, and it has made a series of acquisitions since then.

They have considered a stock market flotation of the company, and that remains an option depending upon the fate of the takeover discussions, according to insiders.

The approach to Cala has emerged just weeks after Sajid Javid, the Communities and Local Government Secretary, pledged in his speech to the Conservative Party conference that ministers would deliver 1 million new homes by the end of the decade.

He said a £3bn Home Builders Fund would help to deliver 225,000 new houses, with a white paper on housing to be published by the end of the year setting out further steps to address the UK's poor construction record.

Cala's operations are concentrated outside London and the south-east, and focused on areas in the Home Counties, Cotswolds, and around Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Alan Brown, Cala's chief executive, said the results reflected strong momentum, and he brushed off the impact of the UK's vote to leave the European Union.

"In the 13 weeks since the EU referendum result, and although still early days, the group saw positive trading with total enquiry levels and reservation rates up 9% and 46% respectively while website users have also risen by 32% on the equivalent period last year," he said.

"Sales prices have also remained stable while cancellation rates have actually reduced slightly."

Cala declined to comment on the takeover talks, but said through a spokesman: "Thanks to the quality of our brand and strong financial and trading performance, from time to time we may find ourselves the subject of speculation but from our perspective it is very much business as usual."

L&G and Patron refused to comment.

>>> Hershey Foods beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY16 EPS above co

--> HSY indicated +1.97% very thin volume
Hershey Foods beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY16 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.29 per share, $0.11 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.18; revenues rose 2.2% year/year to $2 bln vs the $1.99 bln Capital IQ Consensus. Unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates a 0.2 point headwind.
  • Co issues guidance for FY16, sees EPS of $4.28-4.32 including acq dilution from $4.24-4.28 vs. $4.26 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY16 revs of +1% to ~$7.459 bln vs. $7.45 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • "Throughout 2016, our top priority has been to restore consistency across the business. Against a backdrop of continued snacks competition, we experienced improvements in key aspects of our business. Our brands responded positively to the marketplace investments we discussed last quarter, which is why we continue to believe that candy, mint and gum is an attractive category capable of solid growth over the long term when supported with the right mix of customer and consumer marketing.

>>> Phillips 66 beats by $0.17; lowers FY16 capex guidance & expects FY17 capex

--> no pre open indications

Phillips 66 beats by $0.17; lowers FY16 capex guidance & expects FY17 capex guidance of $3 bln
  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.05 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.17 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.88.
    • Midstream third-quarter earnings were $75 mln, compared with $39 mln in the second quarter of 2016.
    • Chemical third-quarter earnings were $101 mln, compared with $190 mln in the second quarter of 2016.
    • Refining third-quarter earnings were $177 mln, compared with $149 mln in the second quarter of 2016.
    • Marketing earnings and Other were $228 mln, an increase of $29 mln from the prior quarter.
  • "Our earnings during the third quarter reflect the benefit of our diversified portfolio. We generated $1.2 bln in cash from operations and a Phillips 66 Partners equity offering," said Greg Garland, chairman and CEO of Phillips 66. "This year we are delivering record operational excellence results, managing costs, executing our major projects and maintaining disciplined capital allocation. We have lowered our forecasted 2016 capital expenditures to approximately $3 bln."
  • Phillips 66 continues to expand its Beaumont Terminal, with 2 mln barrels of additional crude storage to be commissioned in the fourth quarter and 1.2 mln barrels of additional products storage expected to be available by mid-2017.
  • Phillips 66 capital expenditures for 2016 are expected to be approximately $3 bln, reduced from the $3.9 bln budgeted for 2016. This reduction primarily reflects Midstream project cancellations and deferrals, as well as the impact of project financing. Capital expenditures for 2017 are expected to be less than $3 bln. Additional information on the 2017 capital budget will be provided in December.

(Challenges) le lanceur soyouz, otage d'une incroyable guerre avec Ariane

Le lanceur Soyouz, otage d’une incroyable guerre secrète franco-russe

L’agence spatiale russe Roscosmos réclame 300 millions d’euros à Arianespace, une somme saisie par la justice dans le cadre de l’affaire Ioukos. Moscou menace de ne plus livrer le lanceur russe à Arianespace, et d'attaquer la France devant un tribunal arbitral.

C’est une histoire incroyable. Une guerre ubuesque entre Paris et Moscou, qui menace la collaboration spatiale franco-russe et pourrait se régler devant un tribunal arbitral international. Dans une lettre adressée vendredi 21 octobre à Manuel Valls, François Hollande, Jean-Marc Ayrault et Jean-Jacques Urvoas, évoquée par l’AFP et que Challenges publie ci-dessous, le directeur de l’agence spatiale russe Roscosmos, Igor Komarov, menace d’assigner la France devant un tribunal arbitral s’il n’obtient pas le paiement de 300 millions d’euros dus par Arianespace, saisis la justice dans le cadre de l’affaire Ioukos. Roscosmos s’appuie sur un vieux traité de protection des investissements franco-russes signé par la France et l’URSS le 4 juillet 1989, dont il estime que la France viole l’article 7. L’agence russe donne six mois au camp français pour payer la somme due, qui correspond à des lanceurs Soyouz lancés depuis la Guyane par Arianespace.


L’affaire pourrait saboter la relation spatiale franco-russe, qui était pour l’instant restée étanche aux tensions diplomatiques autour de la question syrienne. A Moscou, on montre les dents : "Nous ne recevons pas actuellement l'argent dû par Arianespace pour notre travail, explique-t-on chez Roscosmos. Pas d'argent, pas de produit. Nous ne pouvons travailler gratuitement." Or Arianespace a toujours besoin des Soyouz: la société doit en lancer 24 depuis la Guyane les prochaines années, dont 21 pour la constellation OneWeb, destinée à offrir l’internet haut débit aux zones qui en sont dépourvues. Interrogé, Arianespace refuse de commenter la procédure.

Dégât collatéral de l'affaire Ioukos

Comment en est-on arrivé là ? Pour comprendre l’histoire, il faut revenir à la fameuse affaire Ioukos. Ce géant pétrolier russe, fondé par l’oligarque Mikhaïl Khodorkovski, avait été démantelé en 2003-2004 sur ordre du Kremlin. Mais en juillet 2014, coup de théâtre : les anciens actionnaires de Ioukos obtiennent la condamnation de l’Etat russe par la Cour d’arbitrage de la Haye. Moscou est sommé de payer la somme record de 50 milliards de dollars aux actionnaires lésés. La légende assure que Vladimir Poutine aurait cassé son verre de rage. Le Kremlin se refusant à payer, les actionnaires commencent à saisir des avoirs russes à l’étranger, des immeubles, des créances... et les fameux 300 millions d’euros dus par Arianespace à Roscosmos.

A plusieurs reprises, l’agence russe a cru voir le bout du tunnel. En avril dernier, le tribunal de grande instance d'Evry décide de lever la saisie des 300 millions d’euros. Mais les anciens actionnaires de Ioukos font immédiatement appel, ce qui reporte la décision finale au 19 avril 2017. Quelques jours plus tard, nouvel espoir : le tribunal de la Haye annule la condamnation de la Russie. Mais le jugement n’a pas de portée extraterritoriale : la sentence d’origine reste exécutoire en France. Pour tenter de calmer Moscou, Paris sort les rames : sous la pression du Quai d’Orsay, un article de la loi Sapin 2, encore en cours d’examen au Parlement, accroît la protection des biens d’Etats étrangers face aux saisies de créanciers. "Une mesure calibrée pour la Russie", dénonce Emmanuel Gaillard, avocat au cabinet Shearman and Sterling, conseil des ex-actionnaires de Ioukos.

(BofA-ML) The Flow Show : Robin Hood vs. the Bond Vigilantes

>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: $1.2bn outflows (outflows in 6 of past 7 weeks) ($5.6bn mutual fund outflows vs $4.4bn ETF inflows)
- Bonds: $1.9bn inflows (inflows in 16 of past 17 weeks)
- Precious metals: first outflows in 5 weeks ($0.4bn)

>>> Equity Flows
- EM: $0.9bn inflows (inflows in 16 of past 17 weeks)
- Europe: $0.7bn outflows (38 straight weeks) (but this is smallest outflows in 35 weeks)
- Japan: $1.4bn outflows
- US: tiny $30mn inflows
- By sector: 5 straight weeks of financials inflows ($0.9bn); first inflows to REITs in 4 weeks ($0.8bn); outflows from healthcare ($0.5bn)

>>> Fixed Income Flows
- 20 straight weeks of TIPS inflows ($1.1bn – largest since Apr’16)
- 17 straight weeks of inflows to EM debt funds ($1.0bn)
- 13 straight weeks of inflows to bank loan funds ($0.6bn)
- 5 straight weeks of inflows to HY bond funds ($0.4bn)
- Smallest inflows to IG bond funds in 14 weeks ($0.3bn)
- First inflows to munis in 3 weeks ($0.3bn)
-16 straight weeks of outflows from Govt/Tsy funds ($1.8bn)

(GS) Casino : Online competition stepping up in Paris; reiterate Sell

Source of opportunity
We believe Paris could be the next grocery market to be disrupted by online.
In our note published August 31, 2016 we highlighted the c25% price
differences between Casino’s Monoprix banners in central Paris and
competitor online offers just a few km away. Monoprix has around 40% of its
stores in Paris and the banner accounted for over 100% of Casino France’s (ex
property) EBIT in 2015. Our Casino valuation is very sensitive to Monoprix’s
EBIT margin; a 1pp fall decreases our valuation by 13%. According to IGD,
Auchan has opened an online warehouse that can deliver to Paris in 6 hours.
We believe online warehouses will lead to price disruption in Paris. Reiterate

Catalyst
In addition to Auchan launching an online only warehouse to serve Paris,
we note that Amazon Prime Now launched its home delivery option to Paris
in summer 2016 and Carrefour recently launched a one-hour home delivery
option in Paris. We think home delivery will become an increasing focus for
the Paris market and the price transparency from online will lead to
Monoprix having to invest in price, impacting margins. Thus future online
launches in Paris are the key catalyst for our stock call.

Valuation
Our 12-month price target rises to €40 (€39) as we mark to market Casino’s
listed subsidiaries in our SOTP. The implied downside is 14% vs average
downside of c.9% for our sector coverage. We value Casino using a DCF for
the French business (8.5% discount rate, 1% terminal growth). We value the
subsidiaries using their quoted market values.

Key risks
Faster return to profitability at the Geant format than currently forecast,
facilitating price investment without margin erosion at Monoprix; asset
disposals higher valuations than we assume and the absence of any launch
of a competitively priced home delivery grocery offer in Paris.