>>> Russia is deploying anti-ship missile systems, air defenses, and nuclear-cap

Russia is deploying anti-ship missile systems, air defenses, and nuclear-capable missiles to its Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea - press 
Analysts have detected construction of permanent housing for mobile missile systems that are capable of being armed with nuclear weapons in a move that some experts see as Russia expressing its displeasure with NATO policies. Kaliningrad, located between Poland and Lithuania along the Baltic Coast, has previously had nuclear weapons deployed within its territory but this latest move is seen as an escalation. - Source TradeTheNews.com

FT : Technology will not replace humans in the financial markets

Technology will not replace humans in the financial markets
People are still the best judges of soft data, says Man GLG’s Pierre-Henri Flamand

Recently I watched a computer playing a game that I’d enjoyed as a boy — Pong. It is one of the oldest computer games, in which a bat bounces a ball against blocks, attempting to destroy them all. The computer was terrible at first, but by the end of 600 iterations, it was unbeatable, learning from its mistakes not only how to win, but how to win in the swiftest possible time.

It’s an innocuous example, but one which illustrates the significant advantages that computers have over humans in the performance of routine tasks.

Goldman Sachs recently announced that two-thirds of all trades on major stock exchanges are now carried out by computers. Despite this, we strongly believe that humans still have a central role to play in the financial markets, and will do for the foreseeable future.


Let’s consider one element of our fundamental research process — the visit to a company’s management. Human beings are deeply social creatures, with the ability to use instinct, to read body language and to judge atmosphere.

It’s hard to imagine a computer knowing precisely when to ask the killer question of a chief executive, and how to judge the response. The portfolio manager will have seen numerous similar management teams and will be able to measure the chief executive’s answers versus his or her experience of similar situations.

Will computers be able to get a feel for the culture of a company, for how the employees are being motivated, for the ambience on a factory floor?

The answer is maybe — but not yet. Deep learning is moving quickly and is making advances which, until only recently, seemed unimaginable. There is technology in development that will analyse company conference calls, letting portfolio managers know not only whether the management is telling the truth, but also how confident they are in what they’re saying.

In our view, however, such analysis will for some time yet, still need to go through a human portfolio manager who can synthesise it into an effective investment decision.

We were recently told by the head of research at a leading investment bank that 2016 would be the first year that he had not hired a single analyst. All of his recruitment budget went on technology and people to operate that technology.

Humans will have an integral part to play but it is not unfair to say that the investment firm of the future is likely to look very different to its current incarnation.

We think that there will be fewer people, and many of those who are there will be tasked not with executing trades and analysing results, but with designing and validating algorithms, with maintaining and optimising the vast amount of technology that will be needed. At the same time, we believe that it will still be humans, rather than machines, making the most important decisions of all.

All this technology will merely support human functions in the efficient execution of routine tasks, rather than replacing them wholesale.

For the time being, humans do fundamental analysis better than machines and I believe this will remain the case for some years, perhaps decades, to come. People judge the calibre of soft data about companies better than computers.

Chief executives are human — illogical, impulsive, unpredictable — and it takes a human analyst to predict the vagaries and eccentricities of their behaviour. As such, we believe that humans will continue to be the ultimate decision makers in the investment process, utilising the advantages that technology confers.

Pierre-Henri Flamand is the chief investment officer of Man GLG

FT : EU rivals eye £1.2tn asset pot in UK as Brexit looms

EU rivals eye £1.2tn asset pot in UK as Brexit looms
Uncertainty over future passporting rights puts mandates for European clients at risk

Luxembourg, Ireland and France have begun circling a £1.2tn pot of assets managed in the UK for European investors, exploiting the growing uncertainty about Brexit and its potential impact on the investment industry.

Rival fund centres to the UK believe Britain’s status as the European asset management hub for pension and insurance cash is under pressure following the country’s vote to leave the EU, offering them the chance to lure business away.

The UK’s asset management industry is a world leader in so-called segregated accounts or mandates, individual pots of cash managed for big investors such as pension funds and insurers. These mandates account for £3.3tn of the £5.5tn managed by the UK investment industry, according to the Investment Association, the trade body for asset managers.


The fear is that some of the estimated £1.2tn overseen by UK investment managers for European clients in segregated accounts might be at risk after Brexit. This is because of local rules requiring some European pension funds to ensure their assets are run by EU asset managers or simply because of a preference for such an arrangement.

Denise Voss, who chairs Alfi, the Luxembourg fund association, says the grand duchy sees Brexit as a “big opportunity” to grow its share of Europe’s segregated accounts business. It is Europe’s largest fund domicile, with a focus on regulated investment funds known as Ucits.

“Luxembourg could become a hub or at least an important centre for EU segregated mandate business currently managed out of the UK,” says Ms Voss.

Ireland, Europe’s second-largest fund domicile, has equally set its sights on the UK’s pool of assets. Kieran Fox, director of business development at Irish Funds, the trade body, says: “We are doing everything we can to speak to everyone possible in order to ensure Ireland is as ready as it can be to provide solutions to asset managers looking at their options post-Brexit.”

Pierre Bollon, chief executive of the Association Française de la Gestion Financière, the French trade body for asset managers, adds: “The mandate market is very important in France. It is just as important as the fund market.

“[Brexit could mean] investors prefer to have a mandate managed inside the European Union, and Paris is the ideal place.”

Just last week, Morningstar, the fund rating giant, announced plans to move its investment management operations for European clients from London to Paris amid concerns about the impact of the UK vote to leave the EU.

Asset managers across the EU have long relied on the passporting regime that enables asset managers and other financial services companies to sell services across the single market with ease. Once the UK leaves the EU, however, it is not clear whether British asset managers will find it as easy to access and service European investors.

At the heart of asset managers’ problem is the so-called Mifid license. Mifid, or the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, is a sprawling set of European rules that set out how investment services can be provided across the EU.

If the UK opts for a hard Brexit, asset managers could find their Mifid licence is no longer valid, leaving them unable to access or service some European clients. Companies such as Legal & General Investment Management, Capital Group and M&G only have Mifid licences in the UK.

In countries such as Italy, local rules require pension funds to use EU-based investment managers, meaning asset managers that are registered under Mifid in the UK face being locked out of these markets in future.

Some institutional investors also have internal guidelines requiring them to use an EU-based investment manager, says Ms Voss. Others like knowing they are using a fund house that is regulated within the EU, believing this offers them more protection. “Even if the [trustees at] pension funds are not required by regulation to contract with an EU-based manager, they may take more comfort in doing so,” she adds.

Fund houses with large operations in the UK are now grappling with the question of how they will continue to service European clients when the country leaves the EU. Sean Tuffy, head of regulatory intelligence at Brown Brothers Harriman, the US banks, says: “The segregated account issue may be a potentially big headache for UK asset managers.”

Owen Lysak, senior associate at Clifford Chance, the law firm, says the hope among many British asset managers is that the UK will be deemed as “equivalent”, meaning it is granted special status as a so-called third-country because its rules are similar to the EU’s. This would allow investment houses to continue running money for EU pension funds and other big investors, he says.

“I would expect the UK to ultimately achieve third-country status. I can’t imagine a situation where the UK was not able to manage money [for some EU pension funds],” adds Uner Nabi, executive director within the wealth and asset management team and an expert in Mifid at EY, the consultancy.

If the third-country status does not come through, however, or there is a gap until it comes through, then asset managers might have to think about whether they need an EU Mifid subsidiary.

Some asset managers are unwilling to take the risk of potential restrictions when dealing with EU mandates and are already looking to set up a Mifid-regulated business in another European country. Ms Voss says: “The uncertainty [following Brexit] is so great. From our discussions with asset managers, they are not waiting.”

It is understood that several international asset managers that have a Mifid licence in the UK are in discussions with regulators in various EU member states about establishing operations outside Britain in order to continue to access European clients.

Mr Tuffy says: “There is a high likelihood that UK [companies] will look to establish Mifid [companies] in the EU, and Luxembourg and Ireland are well placed to become home to these new Mifid [companies].”

Jorge Morley-Smith, a director at the Investment Association, adds: “We are speaking to [companies] who say they have plans to set up an EU Mifid [company].

“If you are selling funds in Italy and Spain, there may be local rules in Spain around how you sell funds, which means it is easier if you have an EU Mifid [company].”

But getting a Mifid licence comes with challenges, not least that it can take months or even years. In terms of where to apply for a Mifid licence, “big on the list is ease of dealing with the regulator. In some countries it can take many months and be quite admin heavy,” says Mr Lysak.

Fund houses are also likely to need to relocate or recruit staff for these entities, which is good news for countries that want to attract Mifid businesses. Mr Tuffy says: “The big question is how much substance these [companies] will need to have. No European regulator is going to allow so-called brass-plaque entities. These new Mifid [companies] will have to be staffed.”

The expectation is that while these companies might employ 20 or so people, portfolio management would be delegated back to a business in the UK. Luxembourg and Dublin hope they can also attract more portfolio management staff.

Much of this will depend on politics and negotiation. With so little information available about what Brexit will mean for the investment management industry, the success of Ireland, Luxembourg and France’s attempts to win business from the UK remains uncertain.

Mr Nabi says: “Whether rivals manage to capitalise on that opportunity ultimately depends on what proportion of the asset managers feel sufficiently nervous to make a move.”

FT : Fund providers reject warnings over smart beta’s potential to go ‘horribly

Fund providers reject warnings over smart beta’s potential to go ‘horribly wrong’
Funds that mix active and passive approaches have proved very popular

Even set against the sharp rise of index investing over the past half decade, the popularity of smart beta strategies stands out. Yet demand for the products has reached such a level that some of their biggest adherents warn they could soon become victims of their own success.

As the growth of smart beta shows no sign of abating, fund providers have continued to roll out products designed to act as a halfway house between active and passive management. Global assets in smart beta products — which work by tweaking a passive investment approach to generate above market returns — have grown by close to 600 per cent since 2008 to $707bn at the end of October 2016, according to data provider Morningstar.

But such rapid expansion has prompted even the strongest proponents of smart beta investing to voice concerns. Rob Arnott, whose company Research Affiliates created the world’s first smart beta indices, warned this year that some strategies could go “horribly wrong”.


Smart beta strategies typically exclude stocks that have demonstrated extreme volatility. However, product proliferation and funds aggressively chasing performance could ultimately leave investors nursing heavy losses, he warned.

“Are we being alarmist? We don’t believe so. If anything, we think it’s reasonably likely a smart beta crash will be a consequence of the soaring popularity of factor-tilt strategies,” Mr Arnott wrote in a research paper.

Mr Arnott argued that if all smart beta products simply chase performance, then perhaps they are not very smart at all. Yet concerns voiced by the so-called “godfather” of smart beta have done little to diminish strong investor appetite.

According to a survey published in November by Invesco PowerShares, a smart beta exchange traded fund (ETF) provider, more than 71 per cent of investors surveyed indicated they are willing to increase their smart beta allocation. The research revealed a high level of satisfaction among smart beta users, with 96 per cent stating the vehicles performed as expected.

Bryon Lake, head of Invesco PowerShares for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, says Mr Arnott’s comments should not be interpreted as an attack on smart beta. “In many ways [Mr Arnott] put smart beta on the map. He was saying investors need to do their due diligence, whether it’s active, passive or smart beta. They need to understand what they are buying,” Mr Lake says.

“One of the benefits of investing with smart beta ETFs is that they are 100 per cent transparent. You can see the ETF holdings and investors have the ability to understand what is in an ETF.”

One of the reasons behind the continued success of smart beta is a growing awareness of the investment approach among investors, says Mr Lake. “Portfolio builders are becoming experts in using smart beta and have a better understanding of how they can use it,” he says.

Others believe intense criticism that active funds have received for consistently failing to outperform their benchmarks is spurring investors to hunt for alternative investment vehicles with an active flavour.

Deutsche Asset Management, which has $1.5bn in smart beta ETF assets according to consultancy ETFGI, expects further smart beta growth with investors using the products as “an ideal substitute for underperforming actively managed portfolios”.

Unsurprisingly, product providers are keen to prove Mr Arnott wrong when it comes to his concerns about smart beta.

“It is not only about chasing performance,” says Martin Weithofer, head of strategic beta at Deutsche Asset Management. “Strategic beta building blocks can play an important role in improving the risk and return characteristics of a passive portfolio, especially if we are talking about relative or absolute risk reduction. It’s also a cost-efficient alternative in a low-yield environment.”

However, others believe Mr Arnott’s comments could be justified, as smart beta products are no less fallible than other mainstream strategies.

Robert Holford, head of strategic consulting at Spence Johnson, an adviser to asset managers, says: “Things could go horribly wrong with smart beta in much the same way that value strategies run by fundamental managers could go horribly wrong during a crisis.”

He adds: “Concerns are justified that people are loading up in certain areas, but smart beta providers are aware of this and have introduced value elements to make sure they are not loading up on the most expensive stocks.”

Deutsche’s Mr Weithofer rejects accusations that the chasing of performance among smart beta funds could lead to investors experiencing losses on a similar scale experienced by quant funds in August 2007.

During a one week period, several quant-driven hedge funds suffered heavy losses on the back of the subprime mortgage crisis, causing a sell-off among funds pursuing similar strategies.

Mr Weithofer says the situation is very different for ETFs that are highly diversified, track indices as closely as possible and do not take on debt.

“This is a million miles away from concentrated long/short funds with high leverage as we’ve seen in the past,” he says.

“There is little evidence to suggest that there is any more of a propensity for a bubble to form in smart beta than there is in standard beta.”

TechCrunch : Delivery Hero acquires Foodpanda as Rocket Internet shuffles online

Delivery Hero acquires Foodpanda as Rocket Internet shuffles online takeout pack once again

Rocket Internet has shuffled the online takeout pack of cards once again. This time the publicly-listed German ‘startup factory’ and investor is selling foodpanda to its much larger rival Delivery Hero, of which it also holds a significant stake. A move that should help fatten up Delivery Hero a little more for a long-rumoured planned IPO of its own. Terms of the acquisition remain undisclosed.

What we do know, however, is that the acquisition of foodpanda will be funded through the issuance of new shares in Delivery Hero to existing foodpanda shareholders. As a result, Rocket Internet will increase its ownership in Delivery Hero to 37.7 per cent on a fully diluted basis post transaction. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and is expected to close prior to December 31, 2016.

Meanwhile, Delivery Hero, which was most recently valued at $3.1 billion and competes directly with publicly-listed Just Eat, along with newer premium entrants such as Deliveroo, Uber Eats and Amazon, says the acquisition strengthens its “global leadership position” in online food ordering and delivery. The combined group is expected to process over 20 million orders per month across 47 countries.

Specifically, foodpanda will add 20 new countries in Eastern Europe, MENA and Asia to Delivery Hero’s platform. It currently processes approximately 2 million monthly orders across the 22 countries it operates in, claiming to be the market leader in 17 of them. In addition, Delivery Hero says foodpanda will enable it to consolidate its market leadership position in the Middle East.

Both Delivery Hero and foodpanda are headquartered in Berlin and began life very much as rivals, but over the last couple of years — and given Rocket Internet’s slightly peculiar stakes in both companies — have morphed into frenemies of sorts.

This has seen multiple local properties swap hands, perhaps in recognition that the takeout aggregator space is increasingly a winner takes all market where competing hard can be costly in terms of customer acquisition and retention. Today’s full purchase of foodpanda by Delivery Hero brings that strategy to its ultimate conclusion.

WSJ : For Vodafone, Being No. 2 Could Be Best

For Vodafone, Being No. 2 Could Be Best - http://on.wsj.com/2gmyqsT
Mobile carrier aims to be one of two ‘premium’ players—it doesn’t matter which—in each of its 26 countries

LONDON—Telecommunications giant Vodafone Group PLC has a mantra: Be No. 1.
Or No. 2.
U.K.-based Vodafone, the world’s second-biggest mobile carrier by subscribers, is trying to keep that position by having the most—or second-most—customers in each of its 26 countries.

“It’s not really about being the leader,” Chief Executive Vittorio Colao told analysts last month. Vodafone believes the top two players in telecom markets—and it doesn’t matter if they are first or second—are able to differentiate themselves through superior networks and services. By focusing investments in these two areas, the leading operators can justify higher prices.
“The gap versus No. 3s is not only stable, but even increasing,” Mr. Colao said, adding “it’s about really creating a two-tier market.”
Even after a $130 billion windfall from the 2014 sale of its Verizon Wireless stake, Vodafone has so far eschewed big, global expansion. Under Mr. Colao, a 55-year-old Italian reserve military officer who took over as CEO in 2008, the company left the consumer U.S. market and has plowed investment into Europe and the developing world instead.
Vodafone’s biggest competitors are typically formerly state-owned fixed-line giants still catching up in the mobile age. It earned £41 billion ($50 billion) in revenue for the last full fiscal year and ranks below only China Mobile Ltd. in terms of global subscribers.

Over two years, Mr. Colao spent about $24 billion across his empire, which is concentrated in Europe, Africa and India, to expand high-speed mobile networks, the pillar of its marketing campaigns. Vodafone also spent about $20 billion in 2013 and 2014 to buy major cable operators in Germany and Spain, and it is expanding its wired cable and internet network so it can sell the telecom industry’s Holy Grail: a “quad-play” package that offers mobile, landline telephone, cable and internet services on one bill.
The results so far are mixed: Vodafone said last month that its plan was paying off in parts of Europe, but proving much more expensive than anticipated in India.
Overall, Vodafone’s organic revenue, which excludes foreign-exchange movement, grew 2.2% in the third quarter of 2016, outperforming the average 1.6% growth of major Europe-based telecom firms, according to Raymond James analyst Stephane Beyazian.

Leading the way over the past six months was Germany, with 2.3% organic growth, and Italy, at 1.7%. But Vodafone’s organic revenue declined 2.7% in its home market of the U.K.—where it is the No. 3 mobile operator behind BT Group PLC, which operates the EE brand, and Telefónica SA’s O2. Mr. Colao blames the shortfall partly on billing problems and customer-service complaints related to a new computer system.
Even more costly has been defending its No. 2 status in India. New mobile carrier Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd., funded by India’s richest man, has offered free service for at least a month to get new customers. Vodafone wrote down the value of its India business by €5 billion ($5.3 billion) earlier this month, citing the competition.
“It is very hard to compete with someone who gives stuff for free,” Mr. Colao said.
Vodafone was formed in Newbury, England, in 1984 and spun off from military and electronics conglomerate Racal Electronics Group in 1991. It was one of the world’s first mobile-focused telecom companies, and obtained licenses in a hodgepodge of countries early in the cellphone era and via two big deals.
It merged with AirTouch Communications, a San Francisco-based mobile carrier with world-wide holdings, in 1999. The next year, it acquired Mannesmann AG, a German telecommunications business with European operations.
In 1999, Vodafone merged its U.S. mobile operations with those of Bell AtlanticCorp., with the latter renaming itself Verizon Communications Inc. They called their joint venture Verizon Wireless, with Verizon owning 55% and Vodafone the other 45%. Verizon Communications had long tried to buy out Vodafone’s shares, but the two didn’t reach an agreement until 2013. The sale closed in 2014.
Vodafone gave back $84 billion from the sale to shareholders—the largest single return in modern corporate history. A chunk of the remainder went to pay taxes and reduce debt.
The rest of those funds helped bankroll Vodafone’s two-year network-improvement program. The project, which mostly wrapped up this past spring, focused on expanding Vodafone’s fourth-generation mobile network, or 4G, in Europe and both its fourth- and third-generation networks in emerging markets such as India.

For years, Vodafone and John Malone’s Liberty Global PLC have publicly flirted with the idea of a combination. The two companies expect to complete a merger of their operations in the Netherlands later this year, creating a 50-50 joint venture. Speaking at a Morgan Stanley conference last month, Mr. Colao and Liberty Global CEO Mike Fries said the Dutch tie-up wasn’t necessarily indicative of future deals. But Mr. Colao kept the door open.
“We see the world the same way,” Mr. Colao told investors, describing Mr. Fries. “Is this the first trial of something bigger? Not necessarily.…But of course it helps to know each other.”

>>> ENI exploring interest in selling ENI Gas & Power NV - http://bit.ly/2hah9a

ENI exploring interest in selling ENI Gas & Power NV - http://bit.ly/2hah9ak

The Italian oil and gas company ENI [BIT:ENI] is exploring if there are parties interested in acquiring the Belgian daughter company ENI Gas & Power NV, the Belgian daily De Tijd reported. It was confirmed by Tom Vanden Borre, manager of ENI Gas & Power NV.

ENI acquired the company five years ago for EUR 157m from NUON Belgium, the report said. ENI Gas & Power is the third largest electricity and gas provider in the Flemish part of Belgium.

Tom Vanden Borre confirmed that ENI is exploring the market, but said that a decision to sell is not definitive yet.

The company employs over 200 staff.