FT : LafargeHolcim’s reputation at risk over alleged links with Isis

LafargeHolcim’s reputation at risk over alleged links with Isis
Company rejects ‘concept’ of terrorist financing and says employee safety ‘priority’

Business partner of Isis and financier of terrorism. It is not an accusation a leading European industrial group would welcome. But it is one that has been used to describe LafargeHolcim, the Swiss-listed cement company as it faces allegations of associating with terrorist groups in war-torn Syria.

Some of the allegations against the company, which had a plant in Jalabiya in north eastern Syria, include paying protection money to militants and have now come to the attention of French prosecutors and human rights groups.

“People reading the news today say we were an ATM for Isis, but you can’t make a judgment without looking at the context,” says Jacob Waerness, risk manager at Lafarge cement in Syria until October 2013. However, the troubles that befell the Jalabiya plant, have come back to haunt LafargeHolcim, which was formed in 2015 by the €41bn merger of Lafarge in France and Switzerland’s Holcim.

This month, the company admitted “unacceptable” measures were taken to keep the plant running as the civil war intensified in 2013 until it was finally evacuated in September 2014. Those responsible for the plant had made “significant errors of judgment”.

LafargeHolcim told the Financial Times a report in coming weeks, compiled with law firms Baker McKenzie in Washington and Darrois Villey in Paris, would uncover “the full facts” about the plant’s operation.

But Paris prosecutors have already opened a preliminary inquiry into alleged dealings between Lafarge and sanctioned groups in Syria following a complaint by the French finance ministry.

The Switzerland-headquartered cement company also faces questions about whether profits took priority over staff, who faced kidnap risks. Human rights groups in France have filed a lawsuit and have alleged that the company had “business relations” with militant group Isis and may have taken part in financing the group.

“This is an example of a parent company which has not shown a duty of care,” says Marie-Laure Guislain, a lawyer at the Paris-based Sherpa organisation, which filed the French lawsuit and supports victims of “economic crimes”.

LafargeHolcim said in a statement in November that it “completely rejects the concept of financing of designated terrorist groups”.

In a statement last month, it added its initial probe had revealed that “the local company provided funds to third parties to work out arrangements with a number of . . . armed groups, including sanctioned parties, in order to maintain operations and ensure safe passage of employees and supplies to and from the plant. The investigation could not establish with certainty the ultimate recipients of funds beyond those third parties engaged.”

What action will result from such inquiries remains unclear. When unveiling its own initial findings, the company announced former Lafarge chief executive Bruno Lafont would step down as its co-chairman — a decision sources close to the company linked to the Syrian report.

Mr Lafont declined to comment when contacted by the FT, but one person close to him said there was “no connection” with Syria. “He always said that once the merger was working well, he would turn the page [and step down].”

The Lafarge plant near Syria’s border with Turkey was acquired in 2007 from Egyptian cement company Orascom and Min Ajl Suriya (MAS), a Syrian company owned by business tycoon Firas Tlass. Mr Tlass retained about a 1 per cent stake, according to LafargeHolcim.

From late 2012, after protests against President Bashar al-Assad had escalated into civil war and chaos, and with French nationals no longer allowed in Syria, the plant was managed remotely from Cairo.

Mr Tlass, who had defected to the Syrian opposition, also fled the country. But he continued to work on behalf of Lafarge. According to militant groups in the area, he paid the YPG, a Kurdish group that controlled the area around the plant, up to $100,000 a month in protection money.

The YPG is not listed on US or European sanctions lists, and is now the main US ground partner in its fight against Isis.

Mr Tlass’s role, however, resulted in him arranging deals with a constantly shifting constellation of militant groups.

“Syria in 2012 and 2013 was a total mess. Anyone could put a checkpoint on the road — anyone,” Mr Tlass told the FT.

Other foreign companies sold plants in Syria or simply abandoned them, including energy companies Shell and Suncor. But business at the Lafarge cement plant was bustling. “Everyone saw the Lafarge plant as the big cash cow,” says an opposition source in the area. “There was money to be made — a big demand for cement at that time.”

Producing cement was not easy, however. According to Mr Waerness, Lafarge paid €220,000 to so-called Free Syrian Army groups for the release of nine staff who were kidnapped in 2012.

LafargeHolcim said it was “aware of allegations involving kidnappings in Syria” but like other multinationals would not comment on security measures related to individuals.

Mr Waerness says Lafarge should have shut the plant in mid-2013, once militant Islamic groups were establishing a firm presence in the area.

Even before Isis encroached on the area, it appears Lafarge probably broke sanctions by making payments at regime-controlled checkpoints.

Once in control of a region, Isis deliberately sought to exploit economic assets to ensure financial self-sufficiency — rather than being financed from abroad like its predecessor al-Qaeda.

Mr Tlass said countless local intermediaries offered their services to try to secure safe passage through Isis areas — including access to pozzolana, an ingredient in cement, from Raqqa, the de facto capital of the jihadi group’s self-proclaimed caliphate — with various degrees of success.

So far, LafargeHolcim has not confirmed whether payments ended up with Isis. Nor has it said how much, if anything, senior managers — including Eric Olsen, who became chief executive in 2015 — knew about the activities of Mr Tlass, beyond pointing out that Mr Olsen was not responsible for operations in Syria.

The company said: “It would be imprudent to comment on any specific questions regarding the internal investigation until it is completed in the coming weeks.”

By September 2014, fewer than 30 employees remained at the Syrian works. Lafarge had prepared an evacuation plan and says all of the staff left safely. But Ms Guislain says: “They weren’t evacuated — the employees had to flee by themselves.”

LafargeHolcim stressed the safety of employees was “the group’s top priority”.

The company’s former risk manager Mr Waerness also points out that the livelihoods of local employees and their extended families depended on the salaries they received but asks: “Can you run a business in a chaotic region where nobody follows the rules — and still follow the rules yourself?”

Despite the exceptional conditions created by the conflict, the group’s reputation is at stake. It hangs on whether LafargeHolcim can provide satisfactory answers to how — and why — it kept operations going for so long in a region, where morals and ethics were blurred by war.

NYP : Trump’s antitrust division pick could mean trouble for mergers

Trump’s antitrust division pick could mean trouble for mergers

President Trump’s pick to lead the Justice Department’s antitrust division is making a few big merger candidates nervous — AT&T and Time Warner included.

Makan Delrahim — an antitrust lobbyist who is close to Attorney General Jeff Sessions, according to Washington insiders — has extensive experience with antitrust law, having been former staff director and chief counsel to Senator Orrin Hatch, helping him deal with foreign antitrust issues.

But Delrahim’s close ties to Sessions, in particular, have also sparked worries that he’ll aggressively carry out the agenda of the Trump administration, sources said.

“I think it’s less likely the division will deliver an independent judgment” with Delrahim at the helm, a source close to the AT&T merger told The Post.

AT&T is in the process of trying to win Department of Justice approval for its $85 billion merger with Time Warner.

President Trump, senior adviser Jared Kushner and chief strategist Steve Bannon all believe the deal has serious regulatory issues, sources have speculated.

The DOJ’s antitrust chief has typically been independent from the White House, but legally there is no separation.

So an antitrust chief can simply follow White House wishes when judging mergers.

Meanwhile, Delrahim was Anthem’s lobbyist when the health insurer in July 2015 agreed to buy Cigna for $54 billion.

The DOJ has successfully sued to block the deal, and the merger is presently being heard on appeal.

Anthem Chief Executive Officer Joseph Swedish met Trump this week, and expressed his approval for the president’s health care plan, according to news reports.

Cigna at this point does not want to sell to Anthem, and would prefer to collect its $1.85 billion breakup fee, sources close to the situation said.

The DOJ under new leadership could settle the case before an appeals court decides and approve the merger.

“It’s certainly sketchy” that he is being named the same week Swedish saw the president, a source said.

The US Senate must approve Delrahim’s selection, and it’s likely he will not be in place, if confirmed, until after the appellate court has ruled in Anthem, sources said.

Meanwhile, the DOJ staff is about two-thirds of their way through their investigation of AT&T’s deal, and likely will give their recommendation to the DOJ Chief around May, and Delrahim will likely be in place by then.

For the past 11 years, before joining the White House in January to help the President make a Supreme Court selection, Delrahim was head of the antitrust lobbying practice at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck.

The firm’s boss Norm Brownstein told The Post, “I am fully confident he will follow the law and not politics.”

The clients he advised to help win regulator approval for mergers ranged from Anheuser-Busch to fractional aircraft company Flexjet.

“He understands the role Congress plays in antitrust,” a source said.

FT : Margarita Louis-Dreyfus: guarding a legacy

Margarita Louis-Dreyfus: guarding a legacy
The LDC chair says safety lies in a shareholder supermajority

The French press portrays Margarita Louis-Dreyfus as a mysterious Russian at war with a business dynasty; the orphan from Leningrad who married into wealth and took control of a venerable domestic company.

Her route from circuit board seller in the former Soviet Union to the chair of Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), one of the world’s top commodity trading houses, is certainly remarkable. It is also one the 54-year-old says has been distorted by the media during wrangles with her late husband’s family.

“Robert asked me to do this,” she says of the businessman and scion of the Dreyfus grain-trading empire, who died nearly eight years ago. “I am a guardian of the company’s interests.”

It is a point Ms Louis-Dreyfus will repeat many times during a 70-minute interview at a hotel in Switzerland, the country in which she now lives.

LDC, whose rivals include Archer Daniels Midland and Cargill, was founded in 1851 by Léopold Louis-Dreyfus, a French grain trader. It made $55bn in revenues in 2015 and claims to handle about 10 per cent of global food flows.

For the past 18 months, Ms Louis-Dreyfus has been at loggerheads with members of the Dreyfus clan, including two of Robert’s sisters. 

Having watched their sister-in-law take an increasingly active role in the private family business, they have exercised a clause in a shareholder agreement that forces Ms Louis-Dreyfus to buy most of their remaining shares in the trading house’s parent, Louis Dreyfus Holding (LDH).

But they have clashed over how to value the stake, which could be worth up to $1bn, and are now in arbitration. It’s unclear how Ms Louis-Dreyfus will finance the buyout.

“I’m a settler by character, a diplomat, I’m always looking for that option and I would love to have a solution, a quick solution and settlement,” Ms-Louis-Dreyfus says of the dispute. “It just has to make sense for the company.” 

Born in 1962, Margarita Bogdanova was orphaned at the age of 11 when her parents died in a train accident. Raised by her grandfather in Leningrad (now St Petersburg), she graduated with a diploma in accounting from the local school of commerce.

She met Robert, the great grandson of Léopold, in 1988 on a flight between Zurich and New York. They married three years later and had three sons.

A turnaround expert who owned Olympique de Marseille, the French football club, Robert had a successful career running Adidas and Saatchi & Saatchi. In 2006, at the age of 60, he returned to the family business and set about restructuring the company.

Robert’s death in 2009 thrust Ms
Louis-Dreyfus into the spotlight. At the time she lacked not only experience in grain trading but also in business. Today she appears to be firmly in control.

These are difficult times for the agricultural industry. Bumper harvests and overflowing stocks have cut into earnings at LDC and the handful of companies that dominate global flows of crops and staple foods.

To revive its fortunes LDC has been seeking partners for its noncore dairy, metals, fertiliser and orange juice units to help finance its expansion and growth. 

Progress has been slow but Ms Louis-Dreyfus says it important to find the right investor. “I prefer going step by step but not jumping,” she says. She sees her responsibilities as helping select the right senior executives for LDC and setting the company’s moral code.

She claims she does not interfere in the day-to-day running of the business. Reports that she has frequently clashed with executives are not correct, she adds. There have been four LDC chiefs since 2011 when Ms Louis-Dreyfus was appointed chair of the parent company.

She says just one was replaced during that time. The other two were interim appointments. “I don’t run the company,” she says. “It’s management who are running the company.”

In Gonzalo Ramírez Martiarena, the Argentine national who runs LDC, Ms Louis-Dreyfus says she now has a CEO who shares her long-term vision.

On leadership, she says she learnt the importance of teamwork after watching five of the best doctors in the world try to keep Robert’s cancer at bay. “There is no one person who knows everything. There is always a team.”

Ms Louis-Dreyfus, who last year gave birth to twins with her partner, Philipp Hildebrand, former chairman of the Swiss National Bank, says her objectives for the company are simple: keep the business safe, focus on the long term and set an example for employees.

The first two have been achieved, she says. Using the shareholder pact, Ms Louis-Dreyfus has been able to increase her stake in the holding company that controls LDC to 80 per cent from 65. That will rise to 96 per cent once the buyout of the family shareholders is completed.

“A family company needs to have one shareholder with a supermajority,” she says. “It ensures the orientation of the company is on long-term development as opposed to short-term gain, and the interests of the business are supported in one united voice.” 

She has attempted to address the other objective through the Louis Dreyfus Foundation, a charity she set up in 2013 to help foster sustainable farming. 

Ms Louis-Dreyfus insists she will have no trouble buying back the family stake. Even if a settlement were to be reached tomorrow, she says there would be plenty of time to fund the transaction because of the way the shareholder agreement is structured. 

Asked if she has been tempted to sell LDC, Ms Louis-Dreyfus says she has not.

“When Robert was dying, we spoke a lot about the company, to the extent it almost felt like Dreyfus became our fourth child,” she says. “I fully committed to safeguarding his heritage and building a long-term future.”

>>> Bovis bidder Redrow weighs revised offer; Galliard decides against bid - rep

Bovis bidder Redrow weighs revised offer; Galliard decides against bid - reports

Redrow [LON:RDW], the UK-based housebuilder which was recently rejected by rival Bovis Homes [LON:BVS], is considering returning with a new takeover approach, The Sunday Times reported. Redrow is reportedly eager to tie up a deal, although sources warned that Redrow’s board is anxious to ensure any transaction will offer “reasonable” value to Redrow investors.
Bovis last week confirmed it had turned down Redrow’s 814p-per-share cash-and-stock approach and was in negotiations on a separate 886p-per-share offer from Galliford Try [LON:GFRD], the report noted.
The privately owned housebuilder Galliard Homes is believed also to have looked at a deal for Bovis, using a reverse takeover to secure a listing on the stock market, the item reported. However, Galliard is thought to have opted instead to acquire more land on the London outskirts, the report said.
Royal London Asset Management fund manager Richard Marwood said in a Sunday Telegraph report that he would rather Bovis tie up with Redrow than with Galliford Try. Marwood said a deal with Redrow would likely be “neater” because the company focuses purely on housebuilding, whereas Galliford also operates in industrial construction. Royal London is among Bovis’ top 10 investors, the report noted.
Bovis had an approximately GBP 1.2bn (USD 1.5bn) market cap at the close of trading last week.
The original items appeared in The Sunday Times, Business section, page 3; and The Sunday Telegraph, Business section, page 1

>>> Bormiolo Rocco attracts interest of Gerresheimer - report (translated)

Bormiolo Rocco attracts interest of Gerresheimer - report (translated)
19 MAR 2017
Gerrersheimer [ETR: GXI], the German glass manufacturer, has expressed interest in the glass and pharmaceutical container manufacturer Bormioli Rocco, Italian-language daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. The unsourced report claimed that Gerresheimer has already made a preliminary offer.
The report said that private equity firms, as well as other industrial bidders, are also interested.
The item added Italian glass maker Zignago Vetro [BIT:ZV] appears to have withdrawn from the bidding.
The item noted Bormioli's controlling shareholder Vision Capital appointed Rothschild to find a buyer a few months ago.
The report added that Vision is looking to sell Bormioli for EUR 500m-EUR 600m.

>>> Barron's weekend summary: Positive on DIS and water sector; cautious on GRUB

Barron's weekend summary: Positive on DIS and water sector; cautious on GRUB Cover story: Donald Trump's border adjustment tax is a bad idea, and is "so complicated that even its advocates can't agree on how its disruptive effects on the U.S. economy will play out"; Barron's says there are better ways to boost the economy. 

* Features: 1) Cautious on GRUB: Online food-ordering service has seen strong revenue and profit growth since 2013, but new rivals with deeper pocks could grab market share and dent earnings; 2) Positive on PHO, CGW, TTEK, XYL: There isn't a single dominant company to bet on in the water sector, but these exchange-traded funds and companies are a good way to gain exposure to it; 3) Positive on DIS: Company's film and parks divisions are doing well, and an upcoming ESPN service viewers will be able to access outside of cable packages should boost earnings growth next year.

* Tech Trader: Positive on INTC, ORCL, IBM: Companies may be doing better than many investors expected, but little has changed in their strategy and operations, and they don't truly grasp the leaps technology is making. 

* Trader: The fact that tech stocks such as FB and PCLN are back in fashion is a sign investors have begun to doubt the economic growth spurt expected under the Trump administration; Cautious on FDX, NSC: Transportation companies are lagging, but investors have no reason to worry yet, says Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Group; Cautious on GOOS: Shares of trendy clothing company seem richly priced, and while it may have a strong year, its stock discounts many years of success, but not much risk. 

* Interview: Ellen Stanek, chief investment officer of Baird Advisors, "focuses on adding basis points of yield and return through old-fashioned credit analysis." 

* Profile: David Marcus, manager of the Evermore Global Value fund, focuses primarily on Europe and looks for value and change (top 10 holdings: Scorpio Bulkers, ENZ, Ainmt, Ambac Financial Group, Codere, Aurelius Equity Opportunities, NN Group, Bollore, Hapag-Lloyd, Telecom Italia). 

* Small Caps: Positive on WBT: Shares have gained 40% since Wellbilt was spun off from MTW, and could see more gains when investors better understand its business. 

* Best Online Brokers: Barron's list of the best online brokers for 2017 is topped by Fidelity, IBKR, AMTD, OptionsHouse, and SCHW. 

* Follow-Up: Positive on AAPL: Investors should hold shares until at least the end of summer, when buzz for the tenth anniversary iPhone will heat up and shares could see a 10% boost. 

* European Trader: The results of the recent Dutch elections have eased fears of a European Union breakup, but uncertainty about rising populism and upcoming elections in France and Germany could affect markets. 

* Asian Trader: The surprise majority win of Indian prime minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata party in Uttar Pradesh should send the country's stocks higher. 

* Emerging Markets: "Emerging-market skeptics may need to rethink their positions. While higher U.S. rates historically have been bad for emerging markets, this rate cycle looks different." 

* Commodities: A closer look at the natural-gas market indicates it may not be in as much trouble as it appears to be; investors should look past winter and prepare to make a summer play.

* Streetwise: Investors have a number of issues to worry about, including the potential for a slower-than-expected economic recovery, an economic slowdown in China, and a Fed move to raise rates faster than the market anticipates.

Barron's : Exclusive: Disney’s Iger On Movies, Parks, ESPN

Exclusive: Disney’s Iger On Movies, Parks, ESPN
Walt Disney’s chief tells Barron’s about Beauty and the Beast, plans for China and its answer to cord-cutters.

This was supposed to be an in-between year for films at Walt Disney (ticker: DIS).

In fiscal 2016, which ended last September, the company set the bar high with the record-breaking Star Wars: The Force Awakens, plus Captain America 3 and a surprise billion-dollar hit, Zootopia. Studio revenue jumped 28% to $9.44 billion. Next year will bring dependable hits from the Star Wars and Avengers franchises.

This fiscal year’s slate looks sparse by comparison. But already, Doctor Strange, based on a minor Marvel character, has made $677 million worldwide. Moana, a new princess release, brought in $596 million. Rogue One, a Star Wars spinoff, did over $1 billion. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2017 studio revenue has crept up to $8.78 billion from $8.5 billion over the past year.

Opening today, Beauty and the Beast has the makings of another outperformer. The trailer was viewed 127 million times in the first 24 hours, breaking the record set by last year’s Star Wars revival. The closest comparison would seem to be another live-action (that is, nonanimated) fairy tale film, Cinderella, which opened two years ago and brought in a solid $544 million. But perhaps not.

“The original, animated Cinderella came out before I was born,” Disney CEO Robert Iger, 66, tells Barron’s. “With Beauty and the Beast, you have parents today who grew up watching the animated movie.” Cinderella released in 1950 and Beauty and the Beast, 1991. Another trend that bodes well is the recent popularity of musicals. “There was Frozen and Moana for us but also La La Land,” says Iger. “I’m not one to predict but we think we have a solid hit on our hands.”

Remaining releases this fiscal year include Guardians of the Galaxy 2 and Pirates of the Caribbean 5 in May, and Cars 3 in June.

The parks business is a standout performer. After 5% growth last year, revenue there is expected to rise 8.7% this year on ticket price hikes, park expansions, and the swelling contribution from Shanghai Disney, which opened last June. Disney’s goal there is to bring in 10 million visitors the first year. “We just hit eight,” says Iger. That compares with just under 20 million yearly visitors at Disneyland in California and Magic Kingdom, part of the Disney World cluster of parks in Florida.

It bodes well that Disney is already expanding in Shanghai, announcing in November it will add a Toy Story Land. “We have great land there and ambitious plans we haven’t announced,” says Iger. “And there are opportunities for other places in China given the response we’ve gotten from the Chinese people.”

While casual Disney observers focus on the movies and parks, Wall Street pays careful attention to a bigger moneymaker: television, especially the lucrative ESPN sports network. Cable profits are expected to dip this year, in part because of a big step-up in the cost of pro basketball rights. Analysts are more concerned with a slow leak in the number of ESPN cable subscriptions, although rising fees charged to cable carriers are expected to keep overall revenue there rising.

Later this year, Disney will launch an over-the-top ESPN service, so-called because viewers can sign up outside of their cable packages. It will use technology from BAMtech, spun off from MLB Advanced Media, the Internet arm of Major League Baseball. Disney announced in August it was buying a one-third stake in BAMtech and has the option of taking control in the future.

“You’re seeing a lot of disruption in television,” says Iger. “Some people want their television more mobile-friendly. Some new entrants offer an over-the-top experience that’s modern and satisfying. Young people especially are less interested in the big bundle.” The new ESPN offering could help scoop up some of those younger, bundle-averse sports fans.

Iger points out that ESPN is already being included in most other over-the-top offerings. For example, Alphabet (GOOGL) last month announced a so-called skinny bundle for live TV with 40 channels including the major networks and ESPN, all priced at $35 a month. “A lot of the platforms out there now are only starting to be counted by Nielsen,” says Iger. “That’s going to help.”

All told, Disney’s earnings per share are expected to rise only 4% this year to $5.94, which breaks a long string of double-digit yearly growth and leaves shares, recently $111.71, at 18.8 times earnings. But next year the company is expected to return to 13% growth.

Investors seem cheered by recent developments. Shares are up 21% in six months, versus 12% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. In a note last month, JPMorgan analyst Alexia Quadrani called the stock “more beauty than beast” and reiterated a price target of $124 by year’s end, suggesting 11% more upside.

BArron's : Canada Goose Shares Could Fly South

Canada Goose Shares Could Fly South
The luxury-parka maker came public last week and swiftly acquired an outsize valuation. But shifting fashion trends could clip its wings.

Canada Goose Holdings turned its $1,000 down parkas into a hot fashion item favored by rappers and movie stars. Turns out the company is no featherweight on Wall Street, either. Investors eagerly bid up Canada Goose shares after last week’s initial public offering, endowing the company with a market value of $1.8 billion.

Buyers, beware.

Canada Goose (ticker: GOOS) looks richly priced at $17.23, or 39 times adjusted net income of 44 cents a share for the nine months ended Dec. 31. That’s a rich valuation for a one-product company with potential fashion risk. Earnings for the fiscal year ending this month are likely to be lower than 44 cents, given a seasonably weak March quarter.

“The Canada Goose valuation is related to the scarcity of growth in consumer retail,” says Faye Landes, a co-founder and general partner of Back to the Future Ventures, a New York retail consulting firm. A former equity analyst, Landes speculates that the popularity of the puffy coats with an Arctic disk logo among Wall Street types probably helped the IPO.

Canada Goose, which is 57%-owned by Bain Capital, issued 20 million shares at 17 Canadian dollars, or roughly $12.75, apiece. The stock began trading Thursday on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges.

The company’s success is a spot of warmth in a chilly apparel landscape. Sales rose 41% to $264 million in the nine months ended Dec. 31. Adjusted net income increased 51% to $44 million (the company reports in Canadian dollars, which we have translated into the U.S. equivalent). The growth reflected the opening of a retail store in Manhattan in late 2016 and an increasing online presence.

Given its high prices and a dearth of discounting, Canada Goose had an outsize Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin of 26.2% in the nine months ended Dec. 31—double those of Under Armour (UA) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK), which sells Uggs boots. Its margins will come under pressure if the coats’ popularity fades. Canada Goose is expanding into lighter-weight jackets and looking into fleece and footwear.

Deckers and Under Armour show the risks in apparel companies. The former has seen its shares cut almost in half to $54 since a 2014 high as sales of Uggs have flattened. Shares of Under Armour, a maker of upscale athletic apparel, sank to $18 from $45 last April as growth slowed.

Landes has no view on the stock, but says there are two questions to ask about Canada Goose: “How much can it grow given its price points?” And how long is the replacement cycle? Since the coats are so well-made, owners might wear them for a decade.

Yet the nature of faddish fashions—and Canada Goose—is that the coats’ cachet isn’t likely to last. The company might have a strong 2017, but its stock discounts many years of success—and not much risk.

Barron's : Dutch Vote Allays Fears of a Euro Breakup for Now

Dutch Vote Allays Fears of a Euro Breakup for Now
Dutch voters keep populist at bay, kicking off a rally in the euro and stocks. Next up: France and Germany

European markets cleared the first of a cluster of potential political pitfalls last week when the Netherlands’ incumbent center-right party saw off an anti-immigration, anti-euro opponent in the country’s general election.

When the results were announced on Thursday, the euro rose above $1.07 to its highest level against the dollar since early February. Stocks gained across the region, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index rising more than 2.6% to hit a 52-week high.

The Dutch vote was widely regarded as a litmus test of populist party support in Europe ahead of elections in France and Germany, the euro zone’s two biggest economies, later this year. Italy may also go to the polls, though no date has been set so far.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s main challenger was Party for Freedom founder Geert Wilders, who wants the Netherlands to halt Muslim immigration and quit the European Union. Despite his victory, Rutte won by a narrower margin than in his previous election in 2012, as he gave up votes to second-place Wilders and several other upstart political parties.

Daniel Adams, a senior investment analyst at British fund manager Psigma Investment Management, says that although there was some trepidation ahead of the Dutch vote, Wilders had only a slim chance of heading a government, even if he had drawn the most votes.

“That’s mainly because of the way Dutch politics works,” he says. “With no single party likely to win outright, the one with the most votes would have to form a coalition. It seems nobody was willing to team up with Wilders.”

IN FRANCE, WHICH GOES to the polls at the end of April, the situation is slightly different. Far right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who is campaigning for France to ditch the euro and pull out of the EU, leads most recent opinion polls with around 27% of the vote. Her closest rival is Emmanuel Macron with around 25%. Macron was previously Socialist President François Hollande’s economy minister and went on to launch the centrist En Marche political movement.

Trailing those two, with around 19%, is former conservative prime minister François Fillon, whose popularity has been battered by allegations that he used public money to fund fake jobs for family members. He has denied any wrongdoing.

In France, as in the Netherlands, the voting system is expected to tell against the far right. Unless Le Pen can win an outright majority in the first round there will be a second-round run-off between the two top candidates. While she is expected to make it through to the final round, polls suggest that the vote will go to her opponent.

Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who previously led the National Front in France, made it through to the second round of the presidential election in 2002, but lost at that point in a landslide victory for conservative incumbent Jacques Chirac.

THE GERMAN ELECTION is scheduled for the end of September, but populists have so far made very little headway against Chancellor Angela Merkel. Her center-right Christian Democratic Union leads the polls, with the far right Alternative for Germany party trailing in third place, a good distance behind the center-left Social Democrats in second.

Adams says that although the risk of a populist party victory in Europe seems unlikely, it has weighed on the region’s stocks. With the downside already priced in, Wilders defeat was bound to send stocks higher as the threat to the euro and the EU diminished.

But with other key elections still to come in Europe and the United Kingdom expected to launch the formal two-year process to leave the EU later this month, European equity values continue to lag behind the U.S., where markets have hit record highs in recent months. In other words, European stocks offer considerable upside if the region’s political concerns ease.

Adams says U.S. stocks currently trade on a price/earnings ratio of 18 times on average net-profit margins of around 10.5%, while in Europe the P/E is 14.5 on margins of about 7%. “You’ll probably get some sort of catchup trade, particularly in some of the previously distressed areas like financials,” Adams says.

In the U.K., he says Brexit and the government’s expected launch of the so-called Article 50 initiating the process of leaving the EU have been well flagged and won’t have much impact. “You might get some volatility in currencies initially, but I would have thought most of it is priced into the market now,” he says.

Adams says he is currently neutral on British stocks. “We took some profit going into Brexit, and then on the way out we were adding risk,” he says. “We’re kind of balanced now.”