FT : Sweden’s new business king takes the long-term view

Sweden’s new business king takes the long-term view
Fredrik Lundberg is seeking to move Industrivarden on from a business jet scandal

Sweden has a new business king. Fredrik Lundberg, a quietly spoken and reserved 65-year-old, has in the past few years taken steps to dominate the country’s financial and industrial landscape.

Following a business jet scandal that unleashed upheaval at Swedish companies, Mr Lundberg has strengthened his control over an empire that involves big shareholdings in everything from the country’s largest bank, construction group and steelmaker, to the world’s second-largest truckmaker.
His influence at the likes of Handelsbanken, Skanska, SSAB and Volvo Group stems from his role as chairman of Industrivarden, one of two big Swedish investment companies that dominate the Stockholm stock exchange. He is also chief executive of Lundbergs, his family investment company that is Industrivarden’s biggest shareholder.
In a rare interview, Mr Lundberg shrugs off accolades describing him as Sweden’s most powerful businessman.
“I don’t bother about these type of things,” he says. “I try to concentrate on trying to do a good job and act in a way that is value-creating. To be able to create value in the way we do, you have to take a long-term view.”
To this end, Mr Lundberg does not pull his punches when talking about companies that Industrivarden has invested in.
Take Ericsson, one of the world’s leading telecoms equipment makers that Industrivarden has a 15 per cent stake in, and that is struggling with fierce competition.
Mr Lundberg says: “From a shareholder’s point of view, we are not happy and we are not satisfied with the development, and we hope for changes.”
The shake-up has already begun, soon after Industrivarden voiced public criticism of Ericsson, under-fire chief executive Hans Vestberg was ousted last July.
The firing was only the latest in an extraordinary amount of bloodletting at Swedish boardrooms associated with Industrivarden in the past two years.
The spark for the upheaval was allegations about the frivolous use of business jets by managers both of Industrivarden and the groups that the investment company has stakes in.
Mr Lundberg declines to comment on the scandal, but other people in the Industrivarden empire say the real problem at the investment company was not the use of business jets but rather the concentration of power in the hands of Sverker Martin-Lof and Anders Nyren, its former chairman and chief executive.
The two sat on the boards of most of the eight listed companies where Industrivarden is a big shareholder. Cross-shareholdings often complicated responsibilities. Handelsbanken, where Mr Nyren was chairman, was a big shareholder in Industrivarden, where Mr Martin-Lof held the same role.
Sverker Martin-Lof (left) and Anders Nyren © EPA ,
In the spring of 2015, first Mr Martin-Lof and then Mr Nyren were pushed aside by Industrivarden’s board and shareholders, leaving Mr Lundberg to become chairman. Mr Martin-Lof complained at the time that the events were “coup-like”.
Mr Lundberg has since moved quickly to sort out the empire. Outsiders were brought in as chief executives of Volvo, Sandvik, the mining equipment maker, and Industrivarden itself, while new chairmen have been appointed at five of the investment company’s eight holdings. The cross-shareholdings have been dismantled, with both Handelsbanken and SCA, the paper maker, selling stakes in Industrivarden under their new chairmen.
Mr Lundberg portrays Industrivarden as an active and long-term shareholder that engages with the companies it has stakes in at board level, rather than through management.
“It’s very important that we concentrate on choosing the right people in the boards and try to find out what the most important topics for each company are, the value-creating topics,” he says.

Mr Lundberg praises the Swedish system under which there is a clear delineation of functions: the top shareholders propose board members for the annual meeting to vote on, while the board chooses the management.
Another important part of the system is a split between so-called A and B shares, with the former often conferring greater voting rights — arrangements that have been controversial with some US and UK investors in the past.
Unsurprisingly, Mr Lundberg defends the system. “It’s important for every company to have one of a few big shareholders who take a long-term view and long-term responsibility.”
A rival of Mr Lundberg’s at the top of Swedish business says: “Fredrik is very smart and very discreet. When he doesn’t like something he is pretty persuasive.”
Joacim Olsson, head of Aktiespararna, the Swedish association for private investors, says Mr Lundberg “has delivered great returns to shareholders over a long period of time”. He goes on to call him “a perfect example of an active long-term owner”, something he finds important amid the rise of more short-term institutional investors.
Investors in Lundbergs, which has only 10 employees, have seen its shares almost quadruple in the past seven years. The discount to net asset value — a measure for how big the discrepancy is between the value of an investment company’s holdings and its share price — has been erased in the past two years, leading Lundbergs to now have a small and rare premium.
Industrivarden’s share performance has lagged behind that of Investor, Sweden’s other leading investment company run by the Wallenberg family, in the past five years. However, since Mr Lundberg’s appointment as chairman of Industrivarden in 2015, the gap has narrowed modestly.
Mr Lundberg acknowledges there is more work to be done by him and Helena Stjernholm, Industrivarden’s chief executive. “We have come a bit of the way. But . . . you don’t change companies in one year,” he says.
He suggests a number of areas for improvement at the companies that Industrivarden owns stakes in.
One is finding the right organisational structure. He praises both Handelsbanken and Skanska for their decentralised organisations, adding that Volvo, Sandvik and Ericsson could all benefit from such arrangements.
Another priority is having strong finances with not too much debt, and Industrivarden is cutting its borrowings. “In all companies, it’s very important to have a strong balance sheet,” says Mr Lundberg. “Then you don’t get dependent on banks . . . It’s also nice to be able to sleep at night.”
Shareholder insists on staying in control
When Fredrik Lundberg entered the Swedish business founded by his father in 1977, it was focused on real estate and construction. The younger Mr Lundberg wanted to diversify so Lundbergs soon went into finance, venture capital, real estate and smaller industrial groups.
A slimming down of the company in the 1990s led Mr Lundberg to concentrate purely on real estate and investments in Sweden.
Real estate was moved into a wholly-owned subsidiary — now run by Mr Lundberg’s 37-year-old daughter, Louise Lindh — while Lundbergs holds stakes in eight listed companies.
Through its 23 per cent stake in Industrivarden, Lundbergs has exposure to 13 listed groups in total. “That is a good diversification, not too many and not too few,” says Mr Lundberg.
Associates say Mr Lundberg likes to be hands-on: for instance, taking a flight to check up on a Skanska building site in Poland.
Mr Lundberg also insists on staying in control. Unlike the other big family-run investment company in Sweden — controlled by the Wallenbergs — Mr Lundberg and his relatives own their stakes in Lundbergs directly rather than through a foundation.
Both his daughters, who together have five children, serve on the boards of some of the companies that Lundbergs has stakes in.
Family-run companies can run into problems due to squabbling, and Mr Lundberg concedes there could be practical issues for Lundbergs in the “fifth, sixth or seventh generation”, but that will not be a concern for him. He adds, pointedly: “I will try to be in business for quite a long time yet.”

FT : It was another great year for investors who avoid hedge funds

It was another great year for investors who avoid hedge funds
For the seventh year running highly paid experts were worse than simple index funds

Amid the tweets and bonfire of expertise last year, did you notice the worldwide boom in asset prices?

For instance, a non-exhaustive list of ways an investor might have increased their wealth by more than a tenth in 2016 includes: crude oil; the major stock market indices for the US, UK, Brazil and Russia; Emerging market equities as a whole; pretty much any high yielding corporate bond market; sugar, silver and copper; even gilts, debt of the UK government.

Yet the premium part of the asset management industry, cosseting its sharpest minds in the most luxurious offices, had another dismal year. The average investor in a hedge fund, according to data provider HFR, saw their money grow a mere 2.5 per cent last year, only slightly more than investors handed over in fees, of roughly $65bn.

The immediate question might be how so many hedge fund managers failed to do better. Places to lose money were scarce in 2016 for anyone who didn’t place a bet on sterling ahead of the UK vote to leap from the EU. Wheat prices, companies reliant on the British economy, and stocks listed in Shanghai top a small list of ways to have substantially reduced wealth.

A bigger question, however, is why the investment performance of hedge funds has been so poor for so long.

It may be because exposing the mediocrity runs into a problem of measurement. There is no perfect way to assess a diverse industry made up of as many as 10,000 funds. Clever investment managers are a cohort, not an asset class.

A portfolio of investments in hedge funds is also a weird concept: we’d like the average ability of a group of people to make investment decisions, chosen for their historic ability to do so even though academic studies show past performance genuinely is no guide to the future, please. Various fee-generating businesses exist by presenting such weirdness as a challenge to be solved by consultants, advisers and banks.

Still, one low bar for measurement is a simple combination of cheap index funds, say $60 in US stocks and $40 in Vanguard’s Total Bond Fund each year: in 2016 it became $108. Indeed, in each of the past seven years the index funds were the better choice than $100 managed by the average hedge fund, weighted by assets and again using HFR numbers.

Expert money managers did have a good financial crisis on this measure, but have been considerably outpaced since. Over the past decade $100 using the dual index fund approach became $184, while the average hedge fund investor would be left with perhaps $159.

The first reason is fees: investors paid at least $34 to hedge funds over the decade, to see their money grow by $59, based on conservative estimates for typical costs and not including the expense of choosing or monitoring the hedge fund managers.

Second is a collapse in interest rates, which has been good for simple bond funds but made life hard for hedge funds, as cash balances they hold while shorting stocks or doing other complex activities no longer offer easy income.

Technology and regulation are also part of the challenge. Information is much more freely available than in the past, and in some ways it is easier to trade. Profitable market niches tend not to last when as many as 10,000 hedge funds with $3tn to invest are all looking for them.

Post-crisis rule changes to restrict trading by investment banks have also, arguably, introduced more random movement to markets. Such temporary swings are a problem due to another group who deserve blame: the pension and sovereign wealth funds who invest in hedge funds.

These so-called institutional investors tend to prefer large and respectable looking hedge funds, and can be alarmed by paper losses which are taken as a signal of poor risk management. The result is hedge funds focused on not doing anything stupid which might cause the big investors to take their money away.

An overabundance of caution does not lend itself to reliable investment growth. Instead, collect management fees, talk darkly about future crisis and hope investors do not notice how well they could have done without you.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • KSS -14.6%, (lowers FY17 guidance to $3.60-3.65 from $3.80-4.00 vs $3.93 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; Nov-Dec comps -2.1%), RECN -13.2%
  • M -11.2%, (Macy's lowers FY17 EPS; comparable sales on an owned plus licensed basis declined by 2.1 percent in the months of November and December 2016; announces actions to streamline store portfolio, intensify cost efficiency efforts and execute real estate strategy)
  • MG -8.8%, LB -5.5%, MC -5.4%, (Moelis sees Q4 revs above consensus; raises dividend to $0.37/share from $0.32/share; commenced public offering of 5,000,000 shares of Class A common stock)
  • CATO -5.4%, AEO -4.8%, RPM -1.5%,

Select retail related names showing weakness following Macy's and Kohl's comps:

  • JWN -7.5%, JCP -5.4%, FOSL -4.6%, DDS -3.9%

Other news:

  • AEZS -32.7% (reports the confirmatory Phase 3 clinical trial of Macrilen (macimorelin) failed to achieve its objective of validating a single oral dose of macimorelin for the evaluation of growth hormone deficiency in adults )
  • HRTX -9.7% (announces 'positive' topline results from its Phase 2 study of HTX-011 in subjects undergoing abdominoplasty; 'demonstrated statistically significant reductions in both pain intensity and the use of opioid rescue medications through 96 hours following surgery'
  • KNOP -8.5% (commences 2.5 mln common units offering)
  • OREX -8.5% (after 64% move higher on Wednesday)
  • HLX -5.1% (Helix Energy commences public offering of 21 mln shares of common stock; discloses impairment charge and delayed in-service for Siem Helix 1 update), BKE -3.4% (reports December comps of -15.5% vs -5.4% year ago and -16.2% last month
  • KRC -1.5% (commences 3.5 mln common stock offering)
  • HPP -1.3% (announced offering of 18,673,808 shares of common stock pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement )
  • LOXO -1.2% (prices 3.87 mln common stock offering at $31.00/share)

Analyst comments:

  • UAL -1.9% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • UNXL +6.7%, BKS +5.7%, ALXN +5.6%, (files previously delayed Form 10-Q; Audit / Finance Committee concluded that the previously issued financial results do not require restatement)
  • PLCE +1.9%, AR +0.7%, (capital budget for 2017 is $1.5 billion, including $1.3 billion for drilling and completion and $200 million for core leasehold additions and extensions; Net production is expected to average 2,160 to 2,250 MMcfe/d in 2017, representing year-over-year growth of 20% to 25% relative to 2016 guidance),

M&A news:

  • CEB +21.2% (to be acquired by Gartner (IT) for $2.6 billion in cash and stock)

Select oil/gas related names showing strength:

  • AUY +3.6%, AG +3.1%, GDX +2.1%, ABX +2.1%, GG +2%, NEM +1.8%, GLD +1.1%

Other news:

  • PIRS +28.6% (Pieris Pharmaceuticals and Servier to jointly pursue several bispecific therapeutic programs including its' proprietary dual checkpoint inhibitor PRS-332; co to receive $31.3 mln upfront, up to $539 mln in success-based payments )
  • CTIC +24.7% (FDA removes full clinical hold for Pacritinib )
  • KOOL +17.2% (eceives FDA approval for significant revisions to its pivotal study for treatment of Critical Limb Ischemia )
  • HALO +15.5% (announces phase 2 study in advanced pancreas cancer meets key endpoints in topline results from the combined analysis of Stages 1 and 2 and Stage 2 alone of its HALO 202 study)
  • GNCA +13.7% (announces 'positive' clinical results from a planned interim analysis of its ongoing placebo-controlled Phase 2b trial evaluating GEN-003 )
  • SHLD +10.8% (after closing near highs of the day +7%),
  • SYN +10% (announces 'positive' topline data from its Phase 2b clinical trial for SYN-004; met its primary endpoint of significantly reducing C. difficile Infection)
  • ARNA +6% (Arena Pharm sells all of its rights to develop and market lorcaserin to Eisai for a reduced amount than previously announced; enters into equity distribution agreement to sell & issue $50 mln in shares of common stock with Citigroup Global Markets)
  • RT +3.7% (continued strength)
  • GALE +3.4% (provided a corporate and clinical outlook for 2017 and announced that Mark W. Schwartz President and CEO will give a company presentation at the Biotech Showcase 2017),

Analyst comments:

  • EVOK +12.3% (upgraded to Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; tgt raised to $6)
  • SGYP +2.1% (initiated with a Outperform at Oppenheimer)

>>> Bitcoin Bloodbath As Mexican Peso Surges After Central Bank Intervention

Bitcoin Bloodbath As Mexican Peso Surges After Central Bank Intervention

Following yesterday's 'panic' among mexican officials that Trump has considerably more leverage than the elites believed, the peso is soaring suddenly this morning as Banxico intervention took place. At the same time, following comments from official reserachers in China on capital controls and crackdown on 'virtual' outflows, Bitcoin is getting hammered - biggest drop in 2 years.
Initially it was speculation but now Bloomberg confirms a comment from the central bank:
  • *BANXICO IS INTERVENING IN THE MARKET, CENTRAL BANK GARCIA SAYS

Something just snapped...

This is the biggest drop in Bitcoin in 2 years and biggest rise in the peso since 11/15.

>>> Macy's: Color on guidance cut (35.84)

-->M down 10% at 5 month low just above the 32 level premarket.
Macy's: Color on guidance cut
  • Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold
  • TAG lowers tgt to $38 from $42. While all of these incremental initiatives are encouraging, comparable store sales are now expected to decline for the third year in a row, as the co is now planning 2017 to be relatively consistent with the November/December trend. Collectively, they believe these factors create low visibility on the trajectory of earnings, especially given the uncertainty around the timing and ultimate impact of real estate activities.
  • RBC Capital Mkts lowers their M tgt to $35 from $43. M's holiday update is particularly disappointing, as easier Q4 compares with opportunity to return to topline momentum and significant margin recapture were the reason to own the department store group, despite the secular bear case. Although M's ongoing real estate and cost rationalization initiatives provide some downside support, they are now more concerned about its core business (FY17 guidance suggest no improvement).
  • Stifel believes that the pattern of strong sales during highly promotional holiday periods (Thanksgiving week and Christmas week) offset by weakness during the interim period was particularly strong this year, as customers shopped smart, which contributed to margin pressure. Also pressuring results are the trends that they have been observing for the past year, including a shift in spending away from apparel due to priorities changing and demographics shifting as well as the cannibalization of e-commerce; $39 tgt.
  • Goldman tgt to $39 from $44
  • Jefferies tgt to $35 from $40
    • Dept store peers: KSS -15% (also warned), JWN -7%, DDS -4%, JCP -1.5%

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: SYN +31.5%, CTIC +27.7%, GNCA +21.1%, ARNA +7.3%, ALXN +4.6%, RT +3.7%, AUY +3.3%, AG +3%, SGYP+2.1%, NVDA +2.1%, GDX +1.9%, NEM +1.8%, ABX +1.8%, GG +1.7%, YNDX +1.5%, SDRL +1.4%, AZN +1.2%, RIG +1.1%,HAL +1.1%, COST +1.1%, NVS +1%, ACHC +0.9%, NVO +0.9%, GLD +0.9%, AR +0.7%, AMD +0.6%

Gapping down: AEZS -34.2%, KSS -15.4%, HRTX -11.6%, M -10.3%, MG -8.8%, HLX -7.6%, KNOP -6.8%, LB -6.4%, JWN-5.7%, JCP -5.5%, CATO -5.4%, OREX -5.3%, MC -4%, DDS -3.9%, SHLD -3.4%, LOXO -3.2%, PUK -2.5%, RIO -2.3%, KRC-2.2%, UAL -1.9%, FOSL -1.8%, CS -1.8%, BKE -1.7%, SONC -1.5%, MYL -1.3%, X -1.3%, HPP -1%, SYT -1%, BHP -0.6%, ABT -0.5%

>>> Monsanto beats by $0.22, beats on revs; reaffirms guidance FY17 EPS in-line;

--> +0.45% Pre Open 15k shares traded
Monsanto beats by $0.22, beats on revs; reaffirms guidance FY17 EPS in-line; MON is being acquired by Bayer
  • Reports Q1 (Nov) earnings of $0.21 per share, driven by strength in the company's South American business, $0.22 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.01); revenues rose 19.4% year/year to $2.65 bln vs the $2.3 bln Capital IQ Consensus
    • Co reaffirms guidance for FY17 (Aug), sees EPS of 4.50-4.90 vs. $4.72 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Net sales for the Seeds and Genomics segment in the first three months of fiscal 2017 were $1.8 billion. This included a greater than 25 percent increase in planted corn acres in Argentina and more than a 10% increase in corn acres planted in Brazil accompanied by double-digit price increases in corn germplasm in local currency in both countries
  • In the U.S., demand for year-one hybrids remains strong and the early read on the order book supports the company's intention to grow genetic share. The company continues to build on the momentum of Intacta RR2 PRO soybeans in South America as it remains on track to reach a target of 45 to 55 million acres in fiscal year 2017
  • In the U.S., demand for Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans remains strong and the company is well-supplied for more than 15 million acres of the product. With the EPA approval for in-crop use of dicamba in-hand, the company has received nearly two-thirds of the necessary state approvals for both soybeans and cotton, and expects to have the rest before planting
  • The company has provided extensive, ongoing customer training and expects customers will have an outstanding experience with the Roundup Ready Xtend crop system. Cotton had a strong start in the first quarter with increased acres in Australia