>>> Trian Fund Management (Nelson Peltz) discloses updated portfolio positions

Trian Fund Management (Nelson Peltz) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Increased PG holding, maintained WEN / MDLZ / SYY / BK / PNR positions
Highlights from 2017 Q1 filing as compared to 2016 Q4 filing:
  • Increased positions in: PG (to ~36.72 mln shares from ~6.42 mln shares), GE (to ~68.98 mln from ~67.42 mln)
  • Maintained positions in: WEN (~44.54 mln shares), MDLZ (~44.23 mln shares), SYY (~43.97 mln shares), BK (~32.37 mln shares), PNR (~14.34 mln shares)
  • Decreased positions in: DD (to ~9.39 mln shares from ~14.83 mln shares)

>>> Sachem Head Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New

Sachem Head Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New KATE BMY CIT positions
Highlights from 2017 Q1 filing as compared to 2016 Q4 filing:
  • New positions in: KATE (~6.25 mln shares), BMY (~2.07 mln), CIT (~1.62 mln), FB (~0.58 mln), HUM (~0.38 mln)
  • Increased positions in: DVMT (to ~3.11 mln shares from ~2.35 mln shares), CELG (to ~1.65 mln from ~1.35 mln)
  • Maintained positions in: ADSK (~12.89 mln shares), BAC (~4.98 mln shares), SERV (~3.86 mln shares), CRM (~2.13 mln shares), GOOGL (~0.21 mln shares)
  • Closed positions in: SBAC (from ~1.79 mln shares), SHPG (from ~0.18 mln)
  • Decreased positions in: CDK (to ~0.65 mln shares from ~2.52 mln shares), ALXN (to ~0.64 mln from ~0.94 mln), CHTR (to ~0.52 mln from ~0.63 mln)

>>> This week's biggest % gainers/losers

This week's biggest % gainers/losers
The following are this week's top 20 percentage gainers and top 20 percentage losers, categorized by sectors (over $300 mln market cap and 100K average daily volume).

This week's top 20 % gainers
  • Healthcare: MNKD (1.13 +41.75%), NK (3.99 +36.18%), VRX (13.59 +34.96%), NVAX (1 +34.52%), IPXL (17.55 +32.95%), INCR (55.15 +30.07%), TDOC (29.45 +26.94%), SGRY (21.6 +21.69%), LNTH (16.53 +21.51%), ITCI (11.26 +20.37%)
  • Consumer Discretionary: PETS (34.17 +41.08%), SPWH (5.17 +25.36%),
  • Information Technology: LPSN (9.9 +30.26%), DDD (21.79 +28.1%), NVDA (127.92 +23.17%), PEGA (55.83 +21.62%), HDP (13.41 +20.27%)
  • Energy: CLMT (4.65 +19.23%)
  • Telecommunication Services: GSAT (2.29 +28.65%)
  • Utilities: CPN (12.38 +23.55%)
This week's top 20 % losers
  • Healthcare: ARDX (7.43 -41.3%), HZNP (10.19 -34.6%), NXTM (22.01 -19.93%), NVRO (74.06 -18.41%)
  • Industrials: HTZ (10.51 -29.84%), CBI (23.04 -21.37%), TGI (19.8 -20.16%), CECE (9.78 -16.05%)
  • Consumer Discretionary: FOSL (13.14 -24.03%), ASNA (2.99 -21.24%), DDS (46.93 -18.51%), M (23.61 -18.5%), JCP (4.55 -17.12%), JWN (41.2 -15.94%)
  • Financials: ONDK (3.75 -19.18%), MCC (6.19 -18.77%)
  • Energy: TESO (4.95 -21.43%), NVGS (8.9 -19.46%)
  • Telecommunication Services: NIHD (0.37 -21.64%), FTR (1.21 -17.47%)

>>> US Close Dow -0.11% S&P -0.22% Nasdaq -0.22% Russell -0.67%

Closing Market Summary: Averages Trim Early Losses to End Little Changed

The market appeared in position to break this week's sideways trend to the downside, but an afternoon recovery helped the major averages trim their losses. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq shed 0.2% apiece while the Dow (-0.1%) settled just a tick higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed, losing 0.7%.

Earnings were problematic on Thursday with retailers receiving the biggest blow. Macy's (M 24.35, -4.99) plunged 17.0% after the company reported worse than expected earnings/revenues and a 5.2% decline in comparable store sales. Similarly, Kohl's (KSS 37.16, -3.16) dropped 7.8% in reaction to disappointing top-line results. In the end, the retail industry's poor performance can be summed up with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 42.91, -1.19), which declined 2.7%. Unsurprisingly, the retail-heavy consumer discretionary sector (-0.6%) finished near the bottom of the day's leaderboard.  

Snap (SNAP 18.05, -4.93) was also hit by a wave of selling pressure after its first earnings report as a public company fell short of expectations. The company missed both top and bottom line estimates in addition to undershooting the target for daily active user growth. SNAP shares settled with a big loss of 21.5%. However, the company's tumble didn't have much sway over the technology sector (-0.2%), which closed in line with the broader market, thanks in part to a solid showing from chipmakers. The PHLX Semiconductor Index added 0.3%.

Crude oil underpinned the energy sector (-0.2%) for a while again on Thursday, climbing 1.1% to $47.80/bbl, as investors continued to cheer yesterday's bullish EIA inventory report. However, the energy space slipped in the late afternoon to finish in line with the benchmark index.

Conversely, the consumer staples sector (+0.1%) held its slight edge to the end, helped by Whole Food Market's (WFM 37.03, +0.78) latest earnings report. The company jumped 2.2% after reporting better than expected revenues, increasing its dividend, announcing a share repurchase program, and appointing five new independent directors and a new CFO. A handful of other sectors also showed relative strength, including health care (+0.1%), industrials (unch), and utilities (unch).

For the remaining groups, financials (-0.5%), real estate (-0.5%), and telecom services (-0.5%) underperformed while the materials space (-0.3%) settled roughly in line with the broader market. 

U.S. Treasuries settled slightly higher with the benchmark 10-yr yield (2.40%) dropping two basis points. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 10.53, 0.32, +3.1%) also signaled increased caution, closing above the 10.00 mark for the first time this week.

It is worth adding that Moody's downgraded six major Canadian banks by one notch apiece, citing a more challenging operating environment for banks in Canada due to a sharp increase in household debt and housing prices. The Canadian dollar (1.3695) shed 0.3% against the U.S. dollar today, but is down nearly 3.0% over the past month despite the U.S. Dollar Index declining 1.1% in that timeframe.

On the data front, investors received April PPI and Initial Claims:

  • April producer prices increased 0.5%, which is above the consensus of 0.2%. Core producer prices rose 0.4% while the consensus expected an increase of 0.2%.
    • The key takeaway from this report is that inflation pressures picked up for producers in April and that is going to create some concerns about a pass-through effect to consumers, particularly since there were price pressures noted across all four stages of intermediate demand.
  • The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 236,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 242,000. Today's tally was below the unrevised prior week count of 238,000. As for continuing claims, they declined to 1.918 million from the revised count of 1.979 million (from 1.964 million).
    • The jobless claims data certainly fits well with the tight labor market narrative even if the subdued average hourly earnings growth seen in the April employment report does not.

Tomorrow, market participants will receive April CPI (consensus 0.2%) and April Retail Sales (consensus 0.6%) at 8:30 ET and then March Business Inventories (consensus 0.1%) and the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for May (consensus 96.5) at 10:00 ET.

  • Nasdaq Composite +13.6% YTD
  • S&P 500 +7.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +5.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +2.4% YTD

>>> MAKOR MERGER ARBITRAGE RESEARCH - CDI FP - WENT TO DIOR, LEFT WITH A HER

MAKOR MERGER ARBITRAGE RESEARCH - CDI FP - WENT TO DIOR, LEFT WITH A HERMES TIE
 
 

May 11, 2017 
MAKOR MERGER ARBITRAGE RESEARCH - CDI FP - WENT TO DIOR, LEFT WITH A HERMES TIE

 

The “mother” of all holding company trades is being taken away from us by the Arnault Family Group. On 25 April 2017, the Arnault Family Group announced an offer for the remaining Christian Dior shares it doesn’t own. 
 
The deal is structured as a simplified mixed offer on the Christian Dior minorities. The main features are:  
 
 A primary offer of €172 cash and 0.192 Hermes shares; 
 
 A secondary offer at €260 in cash; and, 
 
 A secondary offer at 0.566 Hermes shares.  
 
The tenders to the secondary offers will be subject to pro-ration based on the acceptances tendered to the primary offer so that the overall proportion of €172 cash and 0.192 Hermes share per Christian Dior share is respected.  
 
The offer is expected to be filed in late May with AMF clearance expected in June 2017. The offer is expected to last 3 weeks and thus, the primary offer should be completed by July. Furthermore, Hermes shares are expected to go ex-dividend €2.25 on 8 June.  
 
Although the deal structure is uncommon and minority shareholders in France usually challenge minority buyouts (even following AMF approval), we ultimately believe the deal could complete albeit with a delay. The transaction is a simplified mixed offer and the AMF are likely to approve the offer, given it is not a squeeze-out and the price paid for Dior Couture appears fair. 
 
The appeal process of the AMF approval following a shareholder challenge now takes six months for the Court of Appeals to render its decision. During this time, the AMF systematically suspends the bidding period which provides minority shareholders a significant amount of time to ramp up its attack of the offer. We question as well if minority shareholders can challenge the sale price for Dior Couture (Mr Arnault will continue to own Dior Couture through his existing stake in LVMH).  
 
The Arnault Group have also stated they do not intend to squeeze-out minorities within the 3-month period following the close of the transaction. The Groupe Arnault plans following this period is likely to be disclosed in the Offer Documentation which will be published following AMF approval of the offer (in June).   
 
We see small optionality embedded in the deal as CDI historically trades at a discount to NAV of around c.20% against LVMH. Tender results could be poor if the market prefers to hold the Christian Dior/LVMH spread (trading today a 14% discount) and ask for a bump or await Mr Arnault’s next move. In our view, Mr Arnault has no immediate urgency to reorganise his holding structure. 
 
Given the offer will be made under the simplified procedure under AMF code, there is no minimum acceptance condition and is only subject to: (i) receipt of AMF approval, and, (ii) conclusion of the financing of the deal under satisfactory terms.  
 
Part of the transaction is the acquisition of Dior Couture by LVMH in cash for €6.5bn EV including Dior Couture’s real estate (with a 2-year vendor financing at a 1% rate). The price paid for Dior Couture is fair and slightly above analyst estimates. Dior Couture has above average gross margins compared to the sector but below sector average EBIT margins on the back of high OPEX. Therefore, if we look at EV/EBIT or any other measures which take into account profitability, we get an even higher valuation in terms of relative value and sector average.  
 
Following deal completion, Dior will be a transparent company with a c.€4.8bn cash pile (€1.7bn of net debt to which €6.5bn of Dior Couture proceeds will be added). Therefore, post-closing we believe Dior will carry out a share buyback or pay a super-dividend to their shareholders to pay back debt at the Groupe Arnault level and discount to NAV trades at c.10%.  
 
If the discount between Dior and LVMH (currently at 13.6%) widens to 20% where it has historically traded, we would exit the Dior/Hermes trade and instead enter the Dior/LVMH trade. 
 
While it remains unclear what Groupe Arnualt’s “end-game” is, aside from the sale of Dior Couture, he could do a squeeze-out in the mid-term (i.e. after the 3-month period). We believe that given Hermes current trading price, this is a smart move on the part of Mr Arnault. However, if Hermes’ share price falls between now and the close of the transaction, Mr Arnault may be forced to “bump twice” – firstly to compensate from the loss in value linked to the Hermes share price and secondly to compensate for the nil-premium he is paying for the current transaction which may not be acceptable to certain minority shareholders.
 
We see the “small” optionality of a bump prior to the closing of the offer if the discount on CDI/MC widens to over 15%. The ability to arb the CDI/RMS spread vs the CDI/MC spread provides additional optionality.  
 
As previously mentioned, we believe there is a chance minority shareholders will appeal the AMF decision in the Paris Court of Appeal despite the limited chance of success and the delay to closing. The delay would however expand the value of opportunities available. 
 
 
SET UP THE CDI/RMS SPREAD
 
 

 

 




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>>> Whole Foods: CNBC's Wapner tweeted about Jana's stance following earnings/Bo

Whole Foods: CNBC's Wapner tweeted about Jana's stance following earnings/Board shake up (37.45 +1.20)
  • Jana pleased with removal of WFM board members but skeptical of company's plan to address operations issues; concerned with lack of grocery experience from new board members and their lack of input in new plans
  • Jana rejected WFM offer of two board nominees because it would have required standstill agreement until 2019
  • Jana keeping all options on the table including calling for special meeting to push for its own slate of director