(TechCrunch) Superintelligent AI explains Softbank’s push to raise a $100BN Visi

Anyone who’s seen Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son give a keynote speech will know he rarely sticks to the standard industry conference playbook.

And his turn on the stage at Mobile World Congress this morning was no different, with Son making like Eldon Tyrell and telling delegates about his personal belief in a looming computing Singularity that he’s convinced will see superintelligent robots arriving en masse within the next 30 years, surpassing the human population in number and brainpower.

“I totally believe this concept,” he said, of the Singularity. “In next 30 years this will become a reality.”

“If superintelligence goes inside the moving device then the world, our lifestyle dramatically changes,” he continued, pointing out that autonomous vehicles containing a superintelligent AI would become smart robots.

“There will be many kinds. Flying, swimming, big, micro, run, two legs, four legs, 100 legs,” he added, further fleshing out his vision of a robot-infested future.

Son said his personal conviction in the looming rise of billions of superintelligent robots both explains his acquisition of UK chipmaker ARM last year, and his subsequent plan to establish the world’s biggest VC fund.

“I truly believe it’s coming, that’s why I’m in a hurry – to aggregate the cash, to invest,” he noted.

Son’s intent to raise $100BN for a new fund, called the Softbank Vision Fund, was announced last October, getting early backing from Saudi Arabia’s public investment fund as one of the partners.

The fund has since pulled in additional contributors including Foxconn, Apple, Qualcomm and Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison’s family office.

But it has evidently not yet hit Son’s target of $100BN as he used his MWC keynote as a sales pitch for additional partners. “I’m looking for a partner because we alone cannot do it,” he told delegates, smiling and opening his arms in a wide gesture of appeal. “We have to do it quickly and here are all kinds of candidates for my partner.”

Son said his haste is partly down to a belief that superintelligent AIs can be used for “the goodness of humanity”, going on to suggest that only AI has the potential to address some of the greatest threats to humankind’s continued existence — be it climate change or nuclear annihilation.

Though he also said it’s important to consider whether such a technology will be “good or bad”.

“It will be so much more capable than us –- what will be our job? What will be our life? We have to ask philosophical questions,” he said. “Is it good or bad?”

“I think this superintelligence is going to be our partner. If we misuse it it’s a risk. If we use it in good spirits it will be our partner for a better life. So the future can be better predicted, people will live healthier, and so on,” he added.

Given this vision for billions of superintelligence connected devices fast-coming down the pipe, Son is unsurprisingly very concerned about security. He said he discusses this weekly with ARM engineers. And described how one of his engineers had played a game to see how many security cameras he could hack during a lunchtime while waiting for his wife. The result? 1.2M cameras potentially compromised during an idle half hour or so.

“This is how it is dangerous, this is how we should start thinking of protection of ourself,” said Son. “We have to be very very careful.

“We are shipping a lot of ARM chips but in the past those were not secure. We are enhancing very quickly the security. We need to secure all of the things in our society.”

Son also risked something of a Gerald Ratner moment when he said that all the chips ARM is currently shipping for use in connected cars are not , in fact, secure. Going so far as to show a video of a connected car being hacked and the driver being unable to control the brakes or steering.

“There are 500 ARM chips [in one car] today — and none of them are secure today btw!” said Son. (Though clearly he’s working hard with his team at ARM to change that.)

He also discussed a plan to launch 800 satellites in the next three years, positioned in a nearer Earth orbit to reduce latency and support faster connectivity, as part of a plan to help plug connectivity gaps for connected cars — describing the planned configuration of satellites as “like a cell tower” and like “fiber coming straight to the Earth from space”.

“We’re going to provide connectivity to billions of drivers from the satellites,” he said.

For carriers hungry for their next billions of subscribers as smartphone markets saturate across the world, Son painted a pictured of vast subscriber growth via the proliferation of connected objects — which handily of course also helps his bottomline, as the new parent of ARM.

“If I say number of subscribers will not grow it’s not true,” he told the conference. “Smartphones no — but IoT chips will grow to a trillion chips — so we will have 1TR subscribers in the next 20 years. And they will all be smart.”

“One of the chips in our shoes in the next 30 years will be smart than our brain. We will be less than our shoes! And we are stepping on them!” he joked. “It’s an interesting society that comes.

“All of the cities, social ecosystem infrastructure will be connected,” he added. “All those things will be connected. All connected securely and managed from the cloud.”

(Makor) - Share Class Report

February 27, 2017 

 

MAKOR - Share Class Report

 

Last week, our portfolio made a gain of 16 bps. Top calls for the week to come:

 

 

o    - ISPR IM / + ISP IM

 

o    INTESA has finally decided to drop the bid on Generali. 

 

o    ISPR discount to ISP narrowed from 9% to 4% on the fact that ISP fell more than ISPR when the deal intentions on G IM were announced. 

 

o    Now that the deal is dropped, and as we don’t believe in a ISPR / ISP conversion, we Chinese the spread here. 

 

o    ISPR / ISP could return to 91%

 

 

o    + VOW3 / - VOW: 

 

o    VOW numbers are very good and company is starting back a nice dividend payment (20% payout)

 

o    We think this good numbers, along with dividend policy, shows company is confident that the Diesel emission scandal is under control.

 

o    Spread VOW3 / VOW could return to parity.

 

 

Have a great start of week !!

 

 

 

 

  

  ​     ​     ​

 

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(GS) Europe : Banks - Buy BNP & CSGN

IBs 4Q16: “Unusual suspects” outperform again; BNP, HSBC gain as DBK suffers

Buy: BNP and Credit Suisse
We see 28% upside at CS, with a plain-vanilla cap hike a pragmatic alternative to a complex part-IPO of its Swiss bank; we are Buy rated. We see 44% upside at BNP where strong IB trends add to the investment case (capital formation, dividends, receding fin-reg risk, valuation). All in, our EPS for “Group 1” is +1% for 2017 and -3% for 2018.

>>> Safran Forecasts Revised Higher, PT Lifted to EU69/Shr: Natixis

Safran Forecasts Revised Higher, PT Lifted to EU69/Shr: Natixis

Safran price target raised to EU69 (from EU66) to factor in Zodiac Aerospace deal, and the assumption that LEAP 1B will enter service as planned, Natixis (neutral) says in note.
  • After a modest stock performance in 2017 vs. civil aerospace sector, Safran’s valuation looks more appealing
  • 2018/2020 estimates raised by 4% to 5%
  • Raise 2018 forecasts to reflect a more successful LEAP transition than previously thought, continued progress by the equipment division, more effective dollar hedging
  • 2018 Ebita estimate lifted to EU2.650b from EU2.551b
  • Dilutive impact resulting from the LEAP should peak in 2018, and negative bridge is to narrow in 2018 with loss per engine limited to an estimated EU600k

(MAKOR) SYNGENTA UPDATE - OUR VIEW POST CADE APPROVAL

SYNGENTA (SYNN VX)

CADE recommends approval of Syngenta/ChemChina transaction – Our Thoughts on the next steps

On Friday (24/2), CADE announced that they recommend approval of the proposed Syngenta-ChemChina transaction without restrictions. Following CADE’s initial approval of the transaction, there is a 15 calendar day appeal period during which any interested party can object to the approval and ask CADE’s Administrative Tribunal for Economic Defense to analyse it. Therefore, the approval will not become final until 11 March following the lapsing of the appeal period.

 

The remaining 3 significant approvals are the EC (Phase II decision expected on 12 April), the US (second request received on 28 January) and MOFCOM. We remind that in our previous contact with Syngenta, the companies stressed that the receipt of the second request does not in any way delay the timeframe and the companies still expect to close the transaction in Q2. The companies still believe it is possible to receive the FTC approval prior to the expected EC approval on 12 April.

 

Syngenta IR reminded us that the parties have already submitted a package of remedies to the FTC and the EC. We believe that MOFCOM will be the last regulatory authority to rubber-stamp the deal and believe that all approvals could be in place by the end of May as we initially had Brazil as a potentially gating item given their statutory 240 day initial review period.


We think that todays’ news and the confirmation by the IR that they have already submitted remedies to both EC and FTC make the spread extremely compelling. We think that the current level is at 79% deal probability is still too wide.

 

 

 

 

NYT : To Keep U.S. Jobs, Chip Makers Share

To Keep U.S. Jobs, Chip Makers Share
a Factory and Pin Hopes on Trump
Computer chips are still made in the United States, but foreign
competition is looming. The industry wants President Trump to help.

LEHI, Utah — Nestled at the foot of the Wasatch Mountains here, the IM Flash plant is a paragon of American high-tech manufacturing.
Robots glide along the ceiling, moving silicon wafers the size of dinner plates between hulking machines that deposit and etch microscopic layers of material to build the most advanced memory chips in the world.
For the 1,700 technicians and scientists who tend to the robots and troubleshoot problems in the delicate manufacturing process, the jobs offer generous pay and benefits and easy access to Utah’s many outdoor attractions.
For Intel and Micron Technology, the two American companies that jointly own and operate IM Flash, the venture allows both of them to sell cutting-edge, three-dimensional memory chips while sharing the multibillion-dollar costs of a modern semiconductor factory.
The memory chips produced at the plant are “probably one of the biggest advances of technology in the last 20 years,” said Jon Carter, who oversees Micron’s strategy for new memory products. And, as he was quick to point out, all of the work was done in the United States. “Micron has done a really good job of having a good footprint on the home front,” he said.


In many ways, however, the IM Flash plant is an outlier. While companies based in the United States still dominate chip sales worldwide, only about 13 percent of the world’s chip manufacturing capacity was in this country in 2015, down from 30 percent in 1990, according to government data.
Chips Across America
The United States has 76 chip manufacturing plants, 15 of them in Texas.

N.J.
Utah
Va.
N.C.
Mo.
N.M.
Ind.
Vt.
Fla.
Colo.
Pa.
Me.
Idaho
Wash.
N.Y.
Ill.
Kan.
Mich.
Mont.
Miss.
Md.
Ohio
Wyo.

Okla.
Tenn.
Wis.
Alaska
Conn.
N.D.
Ga.
Ala.

W.Va.
Iowa
S.D.
La.
Del.

Ark.
Neb.

Ky.
N.H.
S.C.
Nev.

Hawaii


Mass.
Ariz.
Minn.
Calif.
Ore.
Tex.
1
2
3
4
5
8
9
15
Chip makers attribute the decline to a variety of forces, including high American tax rates and the hefty subsidies offered by foreign governments for new semiconductor plants, which can cost as much as $10 billion.
“It’s quite a bit more expensive to build a factory in the U.S.,” said Stacy J. Smith, the executive at Intel overseeing manufacturing, operations and sales. Intel — which predominantly manufactures in Oregon and Arizona but also has factories in Ireland, Israel and China — estimates that the extra cost for an American plant is more than $2 billion.
Chip makers are hopeful that President Trump, who has promised large corporate tax cuts and a tougher approach to trade with China, will help them.
Intel’s chief executive, Brian M. Krzanich, made a public display of his faith in the administration this month when he stood by Mr. Trump in the Oval Office to announce that the company would spend $7 billion to complete a leading-edge chip factory in Chandler, Ariz., creating 3,000 full-time jobs.
Intel said it was talking with the Trump administration and Congress about a broad corporate tax cut as well as other ways to improve the financial incentives for chip makers to locate new projects here. Although the United States has 76 semiconductor plants, many of them are older, and few new ones are being built.

Intel, whose work force relies heavily on highly skilled immigrants, is also pressing the administration to continue allowing such immigrants to enter the country. “We benefit from being able to hire the best talent from around the world,” Mr. Smith said.
The chip industry spends about one-fifth of its revenue on research and development, but it wants more federal funding for basic research into fundamental problems, like how to pack transistors closer together and whether materials other than silicon could form the basis of future chips.
“We would like this administration to double down on investments in basic research in universities,” said John Neuffer, the chief executive of the Semiconductor Industry Association, a trade group that represents American chip makers. “Help us pedal faster.”
Foreign countries have become more appealing for chip manufacturers, in part, because of the rise of contract chip foundries owned by Samsung of South Korea and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. They have made it easy for American tech companies like Qualcomm and Apple to design cutting-edge chips in the United States but outsource production to Asia.
Looming in the background is China, which is currently a bit player in the industry but has committed to spend upward of $100 billion to create a world-class chip industry.
“Today, it’s a modest threat, but two, three, four years out, if China plays out as it plans, it could be very significant to subsectors of our industry,” Mr. Neuffer said.
Unlike many of their competitors, Intel, based in Santa Clara, Calif., and Micron, based in Boise, Idaho, build most of their chips in the United States and conduct virtually all of their research and development in this country.

The approach they have taken to 3-D memory chips illustrates the complexity of the business as well as the global forces pushing on the industry.
The IM Flash plant in Lehi was built in 1994 and was Micron’s first factory outside Boise. In 2005, Intel and Micron struck a partnership to expand the plant and make flash memory there, sharing costs and output.
The two companies have spent the past 11 years developing the newest type of memory, which they call 3-D XPoint. The design combines the functions of a computer’s ultrafast working memory and its slower, longer-term storage to create a hybrid aimed at companies like Facebook, Goldman Sachs and Exxon Mobil, which need to process vast amounts of data reliably and at the highest speeds.

David Kanter, the principal analyst at the research firm Real World Technologies, said the technology, which is still being tested by the first round of customers, was very promising. “It could the change the way that computing operates,” he said.
However, as with all new chip technologies, the initial products are likely to be expensive. The Lehi plant will continue to make traditional, cheap 2-D memory chips while gradually expanding production of the newer chips.
Both companies have turned to foreign factories to hedge their bets with other products — less expensive, less capable 3-D flash memory designs aimed at the broad slice of the market that wants better performance but is unwilling to pay top dollar for the best technology available.
Micron committed $4 billion to expand a plant it owns in Singapore to make the 3-D flash memory chips, which it began selling last year.
Intel converted an aging factory it built a decade ago in Dalian, China, into one that produces state-of-the-art 3-D memory chips.
“China is the largest market for us on the planet,” said Mr. Smith of Intel. “It made sense to locate some production in China.”
Indeed, China is an integral part of Intel’s long-term strategy. Although national security rules restrict the export of certain American chip technologies, the company has found other ways to operate in the country, where most of the world’s computers and smartphones are built.
In 2014, for example, Intel bought a 20 percent stake in Tsinghua Unigroup, part of a state-owned company that is behind much of China’s chip ambitions. As part of the $1.5 billion deal, Intel gained a stake in Spreadtrum Communications, a Chinese chip maker, and agreed to license some of its older technology for Spreadtrum’s system-on-a-chip products.
Given China’s position as the biggest buyer of American chips, the industry is concerned about Mr. Trump’s talk of a trade battle with China. At the same time, chip makers believe that China has sometimes treated American companies unfairly and relish the idea of help from Washington on that front.
In any case, Intel and Micron, which rejected a $23 billion acquisition bid by a Chinese company in 2015, say they intend to keep the bulk of their chip manufacturing in the United States.
Rob Magness, an IM Flash employee who works with the equipment that etches and polishes the silicon wafers, is optimistic, but said he knew just how fragile the industry was.
During his 25 years making chips, he has seen employer after employer downsize and move factories offshore as they coped with the brutal economics of chip making.
“All the places I came from are dying,” he said. “The other two memory companies I worked for actually went under. The prices just got too cheap.”

>>> Tesla Cut to Sell at Goldman, PT $185

TSLA previously rated neutral by David Tamberrino at Goldman.
  • PT lowered to $185 from $190, implies 28% downside from last close
  • TSLA had 8 buys, 10 holds, 6 sells before today
  • This is the first change by Goldman since Oct 6, 2016 when the rating was downgraded to neutral from buy. The shares have climbed 27.9% from $201 to $257 since then
  • Tesla reported earnings that topped estimates on Feb 22