>>> Intrepid Potash misses by $0.09, beats on revs

Intrepid Potash misses by $0.09, beats on revs (1.78)
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.17 per share, $0.09 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.08); revenues fell 34.1% year/year to $48.3 mln vs the $33.18 mln two analyst estimate
  • Potash sale volume dropped 54% to 101,000 tons
    • Average potash net realized sales price per ton increased 11% compared to the first quarter of 2016, as reduced volumes enabled Intrepid to focus its sales into higher margin locations and markets
    • Potash segment gross margin of $2.3 million, driven by previous transition to lower-cost solar production and highe r average net realized sales prices as compared to the first quarter of 2016
  • Expansion of global Trio footprint, leading to highest quarterly sales volume since the first quarter of 2008
    • Trio production increased 61% compared to the first quarter of 2016 as a result of the transition to Trio-only production at Intrepid's East facility.
    • Trio sales volumes increased 52% compared to the first quarter of 2016, primarily as a result of the increase in international sales
    • Average net realized sales price per ton declined 36% compared with the same period in 2016, due to domestic price decreases announced in the second half of 2016 and an increase in international sales, which had lower average net realized sales prices

>>> Martin Marietta beats by $0.20, beats on revs; reaffirms FY17 revs guidance

Martin Marietta beats by $0.20, beats on revs; reaffirms FY17 revs guidance (222.87)
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.67 per share, $0.20 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.47; revenues rose 7.9% year/year to $791.7 mln vs the $729.28 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Co reaffirms guidance for FY17, sees FY17 revs of $3.75-3.95-bln vs. $3.88 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; EBITDA $1.05-1.13 bln. Aggregates product line end-use markets compared with 2016 levels are as follows:
    • Infrastructure market to increase mid-single digits.
    • Nonresidential market to increase in the low- to mid-single digits.
    • Residential market to increase in the mid- to high-single digits.
    • ChemRock/Rail market to remain stable.
  • "In anticipation of a busy 2017, we accelerated several operational initiatives in the first quarter. Where possible, we increased production, invested in our labor force, and performed grading and equipment maintenance early to ensure our operations are poised to satisfy anticipated customer needs, particularly for high-demand products that meet Department of Transportation specifications. The continued ramp up in production should lead to increased leverage and will favorably impact our cost structure throughout the year," said Chairman, President and CEO Ward Nye.

>>> Pfizer beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY17 EPS guidance, revs gui

Pfizer beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY17 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.69 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.67; revenues fell 1.7% year/year to $12.78 bln vs the $13.09 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Co reaffirms guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $2.50-2.60 vs. $2.55 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY17 revs of $52-54 bln vs. $53.15 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • "Today we are reaffirming our 2017 financial guidance, reflecting our performance to date as well as our confidence in the business going forward. Excluding the negative impacts of the divestiture of HIS and foreign exchange, the midpoints of our 2017 revenue and Adjusted diluted EPS guidance ranges reflect 4% and 10% operational growth, respectively."

>>> Emerson reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; raises FY17 guidance (60.37)

Emerson reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; raises FY17 guidance (60.37)
  • Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $0.58 per share, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.58; revenues fell 0.1% year/year to $3.57 bln vs the $3.49 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Gross profit margin of 43.6 percent improved 50 basis points versus the prior year primarily due to savings from restructuring activities in 2016.
  • Co raises guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $2.55-2.65 (Prior $2.47-2.62) vs. $2.58 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees net sales approximately flat y/y (Prior down 1-3% y/y)
    • "We are encouraged by improving economic conditions and positive trends in capital spending. Our current order trends support positive sales growth in the second half of fiscal 2017 and leading into fiscal 2018. As we begin the third quarter, we remain focused on improving profitability and cash flow while continuing our portfolio repositioning to expand our leadership position in key served markets as evidenced by our recent completion of the Valves & Controls acquisition from Pentair. The final control management team will now focus on an aggressive integration over the remaining five months of the fiscal year."

(ZH) Pierre Andurand Blames CTAs For His Hedge Fund's Worst Draw-Down Ever

Bullish on oil, Andurand Commodity Fund Manager Pierre Andurand looks around the world for justification of his long exposure. Since the start of 2017, patience has been emphasized by the famous French oil trader, perhaps best known for his previous BlueGold Global Fund management, who is now struggling with an -11.6% loss year to date as of March and is in the middle of the worst drawdown in the life of the fund, a March investor letter reviewed by ValueWalk reveals.
Pierre Andurand – A hedge fund manager with a strong track record finds himself in an inevitable drawdown
When he started his career at the BlueGold Global Fund, generating on average 60% performance each of the four years he managed it, he had a charmed career. Andurand then ventured out on his own, and his gift for reading the oil markets, judging by numeric performance, revealed an amazing talent.
That talent was confirmed in 2014 when the oil market had its most precarious price drop in history, moving from $108.51 June, 2014 to end that year near $55 per barrel, almost cutting the price of oil in half over the course of just six months. Pierre Andurand caught the end of this trend, delivering investors 38.1% on a year that saw the S&P GSCI Crude index drop by 42.6%.
Andurand’s general beating of the crude oil benchmark, and his noncorrelated switching of positions, is his hallmark. After a strong 2016 when the fund was up 22.1%, Andurand, now with $1.3 billion under management, looks to understand causation for the fund’s recent drawdown, a setback that hits all fund managers at some point, with the exception of Bernie Madoff.

BlueGold Global Fund – Sentiment and non-economic algorithmic players are driving prices lower, says Pierre Andurand
The recent oil market sell-off is not attributable to fundamental changes in the supply and demand equilibrium, the hedge fund’s letter told investors. The issue is more a shift in sentiment, also known as soft data.


“It is possible that the oil market continues to be spooked by the extreme volatility and lack of consistency in high frequency tanker tracking data,” he wrote. “Intra week/month large swings in export/import volumes have been supporting heightened skepticism about the OPEC agreement.”
Andurand isn’t buying the OPEC won’t honor its agreements line, however.
“It is clear to us that OPEC remains committed to the output reduction and based on the latest communication from the cartel,” he wrote, emphasizing a primary point that fundamental supply is going to support prices across several platforms, including US crude and shale production. He had previously predicted the OPEC oil deal and now says that will hold.
He looks at China and cites “market fears” that the “intensity” of Chinese oil buying, where excessive leverage rules the day, “has softened slightly.”
The market sell-off is missing the larger picture, he proclaims.


“Market participants remain extremely focused on micro developments like US crude inventories while the big picture has been telling us a different supply story for quite some time,” he wrote. “In fact, the gradual tightening of crude oil spreads has led to the release of expensive onshore and offshore inventories globally.”
So what could be driving prices lower?
Andurand looks at the algorithmic traders and places blame on their non-economic outlook for the price movements. “Without consistent and significant draws invisible onshore inventories, we remain stuck in a trendless and choppy market with CTA flows eclipsing the gradual improvement in fundamentals,” he wrote, pointing to an oddity.
He is not the only analyst to point to CTAs as being responsible for oil price volatility, but both analysts did not cite available open source data. Typically trend following CTAs enter markets during periods when trends are evident, not during choppy markets. Data is mixed on the subject. Depending on the time frame some oil analysis on CTA signals indicates that the market has not generated signals. Niels Kaastrup-Larson’s Trend Barometer, which measures markets for medium to strong trends, shows indecisive markets. Short term CTAs or proprietary traders might have flipped their positions, but certain mid- to longer- term trend models have not given an indication that the time to take action in a particular market has occurred. It is possible that short-term traders have overwhelmed the market, but there are reliable data points that back up this notion that has not been cited.
When reached and asked to provide a source or data support for the notion that CTA flows were strong in a choppy and trendless market, Andurand through spokesperson John Hamlin declined to comment.


“While the price action year-to-date has proven to be extremely frustrating, our bullish outlook for oil prices has not changed,” he told investors experiencing the largest drawdown in fund history. “We maintain the view that front month oil prices will reach new highs over the next few months as fundamentals improve considerably going into the summer.”
Keep the faith, is Pierre Andurand's message. All great investors endure pain. That’s part of the process.

>>> Carrefour - Stock has massively underperformed - Time to Buy to play rebound

>>> Carrefour - Stock has massively underperformed - trading better since investor day

* CA Underperf EurosToxx 50 by 14% YTD & 23.5% on 1y, at the same time SXRP Underperf. only 5% & 13%,
* French env. for Food Retail has been tought recently but end of uncertainties with the election we can hope some better momentum and some quick measures to boost consumption.
* Carrefour look confident situation will improve during the year.
* Macron scenario is smal positive but should help the sentiment...even if biggest part of the move has been played after the 1st round of the election.
* Stock trading more than 8% below its average 3y PE, 12.95 vs 14.2
* Chart configuration - Stock look to have bottomed and rebound on long support and find resistanceon its 50d MA (+/- 21.80) if we break this level (need to close above the 21.85) we can quickly test the 200d MA (22.60) with a gap to fill (22.36/22.50), next resistance 23.07, 23.29, 23.75
* Consensus in the Street is still mixed some banks (UBS) still thinks Carrefour will be impact by margin pressure, few banks are more positive thinking that new models implemented by the group will drive some more growth, less depedance to hyper will help improve the sentiment (increase of eCommerce & new concept)

Chart :

>>> Chemours beats by $0.25, beats on revs; Increases full-year 2017 outlook (

Chemours beats by $0.25, beats on revs; Increases full-year 2017 outlook
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.75 per share, excluding items, $0.25 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.50; revenues rose 10.8% year/year to $1.44 bln vs the $1.32 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • "Coming off our strong first quarter results, we now expect our 2017 Adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion. We continue to anticipate that performance will remain strong for both Ti-Pure titanium dioxide and Opteon refrigerants. We have seen earlier than anticipated demand for some of these products, and as a result, expect first half and second half profitability to be more balanced than we saw in 2016. Guided by our transformation plan, we believe we are well positioned for the remainder of 2017, as we continue to strengthen our businesses and benefit from positive market conditions."

>>> Kepler Cheuvreux Cuts European Real Estate Sector to Underweight from Neutra

Kepler Cheuvreux Cuts European Real Estate Sector to Underweight from Neutral 
- Firm notes 2017 should be a year in which Europe’s Banks deliver out-performance, notably inrelation to assets that represent bond proxies. For this reason firm expects Real Estate stocks to record a further phase of under-performance through the summer, despite the positive earnings momentum in the sector.
- Firm states the expectation of the beginning of monetary normalisation in the region implies a lower price multiple for the Real Estate sector this year

FT : Soros fund ‘disappointed’ at mooted Kennedy Wilson deal

The palindrome is displeased.

Quantum Partners, a fund managed by Soros Fund Management, has written to the board of property company Kennedy Wilson and its European off-shoot to object to the proposed terms of a full merger.

Kennedy Wilson Inc said in April that it had reached a deal to combine with Kennedy Wilson Europe in an all-share deal.

But Soros’s fund says today:

We are disappointed with the terms of the transaction as well as our understanding of the process leading to the agreement. We agree that there is meaningful value that should be extracted from KWE and would welcome a sale if priced and structured appropriately.
We urge the Board of Directors to honor their fiduciary duties and conduct a strategic review of all alternatives available to KWE, including a cash sale to unaffiliated third parties and an orderly liquidation of the Company over time.

NYT : AllianceBernstein Ousts C.E.O. and Shakes Up Board

AllianceBernstein Ousts C.E.O. and Shakes Up Board

In a move that highlights the increasing pressures faced by stock pickers on Wall Street, Peter S. Kraus, the chief executive of AllianceBernstein Holding, was ousted by the money manager’s controlling shareholder on Monday.

The abrupt shake-up, which included the appointment of six new members to the AllianceBernstein board and the removal of nine, comes as investors continue to abandon higher-priced, actively managed mutual funds in favor of cheaper exchange-traded funds that track a wide variety of stock and bond indexes.

AllianceBernstein, an institutional fund manager rooted in a culture of active stock management, has seen investors take their money elsewhere in recent years despite efforts by Mr. Kraus to reverse the company’s fortunes.

As part of the reshuffling, Axa Financial, the French insurance giant that owns the firm, named as Alliance’s chairman Robert B. Zoellick, a former president of the World Bank and senior economic official in Republican administrations.

Continue reading the main story
Mr. Zoellick did have a stint with Goldman Sachs, but he has no hands-on experience in the asset management industry.

Seth Bernstein, a longtime JPMorgan Chase executive, was named chief executive.

According to a regulatory filing, Axa has agreed to buy Mr. Kraus’s 4.3 million shares of Alliance stock, a transaction that will net him about $100 million.

Wall Street chief executives have been fired before, but such an extensive reshuffling — suddenly removing nine directors — is unusual. Alliance, or AB, as the firm has recently rebranded itself, manages about $500 billion, with a focus on managing bond and equity portfolios for large institutions like pension and sovereign wealth funds.

And while there had been outflows and some ups and downs in performance, analysts had been saying that Mr. Kraus’s strategy had been showing some signs of success.

The firm had sought regulatory approval for starting a suite of funds in which the investor fee would rise or fall depending on performance.

And fund returns have been respectable of late. According to Credit Suisse, 74 percent of AB funds were ranked four or five stars by Morningstar, a figure that far surpassed those of larger active managers like Franklin Templeton and T. Rowe Price.

The shake-up came as a shock to employees, most of whom left work on Friday believing that Mr. Kraus was their leader, according to an employee who declined to be identified.

Over the weekend, though, Axa moved quickly to make the change.

On a conference call on Monday, analysts who cover the stock challenged the chairman of Axa, Denis Duverne, asking him repeatedly why he had decided on such an extreme step given the firm’s improved performance in recent quarters.

One analyst asked if there were other issues, perhaps related to the company’s finances, that drove the board to act as it did.

“There were no concerns about anything,” Mr. Duverne said. “Its just an acceleration of the changes with the new team.”

On the call, Mr. Duverne took pains to say that he was supportive of the direction Mr. Kraus had taken the firm. But Mr. Duverne also left little doubt that he wanted the company to adapt more rapidly to the changes rattling the fund management world.

“We are not here to challenge what has been done in the past,” he said. “We want to adjust the company to the new structure of the industry.”

According to Morningstar, 36 percent of the mutual funds it tracks now follow passive strategies — up from 16 percent 10 years ago. Morningstar believes that the share of index-driven strategies will increase to 48 percent by 2021.

Active managers have been struggling for years to come up with a strategy for confronting the tremendous flow of money to passive investment strategies, but the recent pickup in money moving to exchange-traded funds is forcing many to act sooner rather than later.

The industry leaders, Vanguard and BlackRock, have attracted record-setting amounts into their exchange-traded-fund lineups.

Asset management experts and executives have warned that a vast reordering of the sector is inevitable.

“We are going to see a large consolidation in the asset management industry,” Laurence D. Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, said at a mutual fund conference on Friday. He said managers were having a hard time finding returns that beat the market benchmark.

That it was Mr. Kraus who took the fall for his industry’s troubles was noteworthy.

More than most of his peers, Mr. Kraus, a former top executive at Goldman Sachs who had led Alliance since 2008, had said loudly and repeatedly that a rush of money into exchange-traded funds posed a danger to market stability.

To counter this trend, Mr. Kraus pushed for concentrated investment approaches, in which managers focus on a small group of companies that they strongly believe will perform well. His move to adjust fees to performance was also a bold move to address investor concerns regarding high-cost funds.

But in a marketplace that had become enamored with lower-cost index options, his strategy had not yet yielded significant gains in money flowing into the firm. Axa decided not to wait any longer.