FT : Paratek, a pharma firm in play?


Stock Spiking

First, read the raw warning…
Paratek Pharmaceuticals is a Boston-based bio company that appeared on the radar of a number of seemingly shrewd special situation hedgies earlier this year.
They were waiting for — and speculating upon — the outcome of clinical trials for an experimental antibiotic, based on tetracycline chemistry, called omadacycline. The potion was being tested on patients with serious pneumonia along with another group with nasty bacterial skin infections.

Good news duly arrived at the beginning of April and the stock set off moon-wards. Over a couple of sessions on Nasdaq the stock put on 40 per cent, topping out at $25.
The price has drifted back since then as the excitement around omadacycline subsided, but the stock was on the move again on Thursday after a fresh clinical update and Q1 figures. Paratek is pushing ahead with it’s FDA applications and has stated, confidently, that it has plenty of cash to keep it going through to 2019.
But the speculation around the stock has changed colour: it’s now seen as a potential takeover target.
Indeed, usually knowledgeable sources are convinced Paratek’s partner, Allergen, has already tabled indicative terms, having held quiet discussion just last week.
The two companies are already working togetheron an acne treatment. Acne Vulgaris. Bad acne. We’ll spare you the photos…
The straightforward chatter is that while Allergen would love a new spot cream, a proper breakthrough on the antibiotic front for serious infections is a rather bigger prize. And, at a current market cap of circa $560m, Paratek is a more-than-affordable bio-punt for Dublin-based Allegen (market cap $82bn).

But if take-out terms have been outlined, what sort of numbers are we talking about?
Target prices published the nine named analysts following the company are somewhat…frothy. Bar one ‘sell’ (EVA Dimensions), the ‘buy’ spread runs from $36 (Ed Arce at HC Wainwright) to $56 (Robert Hazlett at BTIG). That’s against a market price of $21.80 at pixel.

Fwd:>>> Carrefour - Update - stock is not trading as expected - don't break resi

Stock is underpressure this pm, tested again its 50d MA and didn't manage to break it again today...see a support on 20.90...look bearish if we close below the 20.90

From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: 05/03/17 09:32:53
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO)
Subject: Fwd:>>> Carrefour - Stock has massively underperformed - Time to Buy to play reb
Carrefour - still trading in Downtrend range move not validate yet - but Outperfoning slightly today

From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: 05/02/17 12:18:19
Subject: Fwd:>>> Carrefour - Stock has massively underperformed - Time to Buy to play rebound
>>> Carrefour - Stock has massively underperformed - trading better since investor day

* CA Underperf EurosToxx 50 by 14% YTD & 23.5% on 1y, at the same time SXRP Underperf. only 5% & 13%,
* French env. for Food Retail has been tought recently but end of uncertainties with the election we can hope some better momentum and some quick measures to boost consumption.
* Carrefour look confident situation will improve during the year.
* Macron scenario is smal positive but should help the sentiment...even if biggest part of the move has been played after the 1st round of the election.
* Stock trading more than 8% below its average 3y PE, 12.95 vs 14.2
* Chart configuration - Stock look to have bottomed and rebound on long support and find resistanceon its 50d MA (+/- 21.80) if we break this level (need to close above the 21.85) we can quickly test the 200d MA (22.60) with a gap to fill (22.36/22.50), next resistance 23.07, 23.29, 23.75
* Consensus in the Street is still mixed some banks (UBS) still thinks Carrefour will be impact by margin pressure, few banks are more positive thinking that new models implemented by the group will drive some more growth, less depedance to hyper will help improve the sentiment (increase of eCommerce & new concept)

Chart :