FT : Controversial EU rules could make life trickier for tech groups

Controversial EU rules could make life trickier for tech groups
Facebook, Netflix, YouTube and others face being treated like media companies

Facebook, Netflix, YouTube and the German state broadcaster ZDF are very different businesses. But they may soon all have to abide by the same rule book.

A controversial overhaul of the EU’s rules on video content will sprawl across sectors, dragging everyone from public broadcasters to social media into the same regulatory framework, according to draft proposals being negotiated.

For supporters of the move, the law would end a regulatory no man’s land for the likes of YouTube and Facebook, obliging them to follow the same rules as normal broadcasters on issues such as hate speech.

Critics argue that it is a misguided attempt to rope internet companies into inappropriate rules — potentially throwing media diversity and even freedom of speech into doubt.

Internet streaming services such as Netflix, which are already regulated as video providers, will be affected by new rules that dictate that 30 per cent of content on the platforms needs to be European.

“Quotas are frustrating for us because there is no real evidence to show that they work,” said Colin Bortner, Netflix’s director of global public policy. “[They] divert investment away from high-quality European films and series that can attract a global audience.”

The company also faces paying levies of up to 26 per cent of revenues on its business in France, which it says will decrease the amount it invests in individual European works and distort how much it invests in individual member countries.

Mr Bortner says the proposed rate “is fantastically high”, saying that it would mean consumers in one market subsidising those in another. “Ultimately, Spanish consumers would be paying a higher price to meet our levy obligations in France. That’s because we don’t have 28 individual businesses; we are producing content on a pan-European and global basis and what happens in one member state impacts investments and prices in another.”

Technology companies that offer video such as Facebook, YouTube and Amazon are also facing an overhaul.

All three companies declined to comment.

But a last-minute change to draft version being worked on by ministers means that for any platform that uses video content as an “essential” part of the service must abide by rules laid down in the EU’s audiovisual media services directive.

“It used to be a directive for sector specific issue,” says one diplomat who opposed the measure. “It will now police any moving picture on any screen.”

The consequences for the world’s biggest technology companies that have put video at the heart of their business strategies — including Google, which owns YouTube, Facebook and Amazon — are likely to be significant.

For the first time, the businesses would be legally obliged to come up with measures to ferret out videos that contain hate speech, incitement to terrorism or simply harm the “moral development” of children.

John Carr, an adviser to the UK government on online child safety, says: “Social media platforms — especially Facebook — must be feeling under siege at the moment. [This directive] is just another trebuchet.”

YouTube and Facebook already have some measures in place. Users on established services can flag content as inappropriate, while security services have heaped pressure on social networks to do more to combat use by terrorist groups.

Facebook’s own, detailed guidelines on moderating content that ranged from self-harm to Nazi imagery were revealed last week. The measures are generally undertaken on a voluntary basis but these groups now face strict legal obligations — and potential sanctions if they are deemed to be not doing enough.

Because the new rule is a directive, individual countries will have to transpose it into national law, leaving scope for countries who want the big platforms to take more responsibility — such as France, Germany and Italy — to introduce stricter rules and sanctions. A minister in Germany, for instance, has already mooted fines of €50m if a social network fails to take down hate speech. France is considering applying a European content quota of 50 per cent for all video services.

“The country-of-origin principle is definitely under threat. The EU is moving in a different direction,” says Mr Bortner.

Critics argue that the new rules could encourage self-censorship. “You defend yourself with excessively broad terms of service that allow you to delete whatever you want whenever you need it,” said Joe McNamee, executive director of EDRI, a group that promotes digital rights.

This leaves internet companies as judge, jury and executioner when it comes to determining whether content is appropriate. “You are outsourcing your law enforcement to private actors,” says one EU diplomat

>>> Abertis' acquisition by Atlantia opposed by Spanish government - report (tra

Abertis' acquisition by Atlantia opposed by Spanish government - report (translated)
25 MAY 2017
The Spanish government has opposed the takeover of the motorways group Abertis Infraestructuras [BME:ABE] by its Italian rival Atlantia [BIT:ATL], Expansion reported.
Speaking at an event about Spanish infrastructures, the minister for development, Inigo de la Serna, vowed to defend Spain’s interests.
The minister noted that the government has a say in the transaction given that it has to authorise the sale of Abertis’ satellites business Hispasat and in the renewal of motorways concessions.

El Confidencial also cited unidentified sources from the government who said that it does not back the transaction, though its scope to intervene is limited. The government fears losing its influence over the Spanish motorways, which will depend on decisions taken in Italy, the report said.

In addition to Spain's loss of influence in matters such as tariff negotiations, decision-making on new investments or out-of-court settlements, there is an unease in the government because the first message conveyed was that Atlantia and Abertis intended a merger. The reality, however, is that Atlantia will take over Abertis through a EUR 16.5 per share cash offer that values 100% of the Spanish group at EUR 16.34bn.
The government has not made any moves to halt the transaction, the report went on to say and is bidding for time, during which Atlantia may have to amend its offer or a rival bid may emerge.
Another option would be for the government to persuade Abertis’ 22% stake shareholder Criteria (La Caixa) [BME:CABK] to oppose the offer, the report said.
Abertis currently manages three large concession companies in Spain: Iberpistas, Acesa and Aumar. The term to manage the last two companies ends between 2019 and 2021 and the ministry has already informed the group that it does not plan to renew the concessions.

Legal sources told El Confidencial that the government's influence in this area is practically null, since the takeover has no corporate effects on the capital structure of the concessionaires, whose controlling shareholder will remain Abertis.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 25th of May 2017

>>> Up
*Clariant Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI, PT CHF24
*IP Group Raised to Buy at Jefferies, PT 175p
*Renault Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein, PT EU90
*Statoil Raised to Outperform at BMO

>>> Down
*Acacia Mining Cut to Market Perform at BMO, PT GBP3.25
*Aegean Marine Cut to Neutral at Clarksons Platou
*BT Cut to Underperform at Exane
*Diageo Cut to Neutral at Citi
*Etsy Cut to Neutral at Citi
*Hastings Cut to Add at Peel Hunt
*Hiscox Cut to Neutral at Citi
*Intesa Cut to Hold at Jefferies
*Softcat Cut to Neutral at Citi
*Suez Cut to Neutral at Goldman, PT EU17.20
*William Demant Cut to Hold at Berenberg

>>> Initiation
*Altria New Overweight at Piper Jaffray, PT $76
*BAT New Overweight at Piper Jaffray, PT 59p
*Brenntag New Buy at Citi, PT EU65
*General Mills New Underweight at Piper Jaffray, PT $57
*Kellogg New Overweight at Piper Jaffray, PT $78
*Kraft Heinz New Neutral at Piper Jaffray, PT $94
*Mondelez New Neutral at Piper Jaffray, PT $48
*Philip Morris New Overweight at Piper Jaffray, PT $131

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 25th of May 2017

Dow +0.36% S&P +0.25% Nasdaq +0.40% Russell +0.11%
US Market closed higher for a fifth day.  FOMC minutes revealed that Committee members agree that it will soon be appropriate to begin reducing the central bank's massive balance sheet, and provided a possible straightforward approach to do so. Currently, the central bank is holding the balance sheet steady by reinvesting the principal of maturing securities. But, by the end of the year, the Fed would like to introduce a gradual increase of caps to limit the reinvestment. Taking steps to reduce the Fed's balance sheet would add to the tightening effect from rising rates, but it is worth noting that the plan revealed in the minutes is not as aggressive as it could be if the Fed decided to stop reinvestments altogether. The Fed's willingness to discuss the issue shows that the central bank has pretty good confidence in the economic outlook, having attributed first quarter weakness to transitory factors.  fed funds futures market still points to the June FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 83.1%, up from yesterday's 78.5%.  Eight of eleven sectors settled in positive territory, however, sector leadership was weak. The lightly-weighted materials (+0.7%), utilities (+0.7%), and real estate (+0.6%) spaces paced the advanced while the top-weighted technology (+0.5%) and financials (unch) sectors failed to really distinguish themselves. energy (-0.4%) sector settled with the telecom services group (-0.7%) at the bottom of the day's leaderboard as crude oil fell 0.3% to $51.35/bbl. US After Hours GES +16%, PSTG +11%, WSM +9%, PVH +3.6%, HPQ +3% following earnings/guidance, INFO +5% on S&P 500 addition news, AERI +27% on Ph 3 trial update... BF.B -1.6% CEO denies sale speculation. In China, stocks are rallying a day after Moody’s Investors Service reduced its rating on the country amid concerns over rising debt and slowing economic growth. Investors are also looking past comments by Carson Block, the founder of Muddy Waters LLC, who said China’s credit problems since the global financial crisis will reach a breaking point.

Nikkei +0.45% Hang Seng +0.98% CSI +1.88% Shanghai +1.57%

Eur$ 1.1241 CNH +6.8583 CNY 6.8723 JPY 111.61 GBP 1.2991 CHF 0.9721 RUB 56.1520 WTI$ 51.80 +0.85%

S&P +0.37% EuroStoxx +0.56% FTSE +0.32% DAx +0.40% SMI closed

Macro :
- China Willing to Strengthen Economic Ties With U.S.: Ministry
- Interest in Power, Utility M&A at 7-Year High: Ernst & Young
- Nearly All on FOMC Favored Shrinking B/Sheet in 2017: Minutes
- Fed Fund Futures Continue Pricing About 80% Odds of June Hike
- EU to Make Targeted Changes to MiFID on Systematic Internalizers

Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : AB InBev Sales Chief Doukeris Buys EU1m of Brewer’s Stock
- AIR FP : Airbus Plans to Deliver About 200 Aircraft to China in 2017
- AGN NA : Aegon Appoints Maurice Perkins Head of Govt and Policy Affairs
- AIXA GY : Aixtron to Sell ALD/CVD Memory Product Line for $45m-$55m
- BA/ US : Boeing China Expects 200 Aircraft Delivery in 2017: Info. Daily
- BF/B US : Brown-Forman Says Company Is Not for Sale
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Eyes Fed Deal as U.S. Stays Mum on Russia Probe
- FCA IM : Fiat Tells U.S. Judge It Has Quick Fix for Diesel-Cheating Cars
- LIN GY : Praxair Confirms Pact in Principle for Combination With Linde
- ROG VX : Roche Says It’s Investigating Brain Infection in MS Patient
- SDRL NO : Seadrill Sees 2Q Ebitda at $240 Million
- SNAP US : Snapchat Said Offering Ad Buyers Discounts to Mid-June: Digiday
- SO FP : Somfy Says 5-For-1 Stock Split to Take Place July 3
- SAZ GY : Permira Consortium Said Not Making Stada Counteroffer: Reuters
- SYNN VX : ChemChina Says 92.2% of Syngenta Shares Tendered
- DG FP : Vinci: A9 Near Montpellier to Be in Use 6 Mos. Ahead of Schedule

WSJ : The Rise of the Amateur Oil Sleuths

The Rise of the Amateur Oil Sleuths
Upstarts cropping up to feed growing appetite for clues on where crude prices will go

On a recent Sunday evening, Samir Madani had dinner with his family in suburban Stockholm, did the dishes and put his two children to bed.

Then he opened his laptop and started crunching U.S. oil import data late into the night.

Mr. Madani, a technology executive who trades and researches crude as a hobby, is part of a growing group of oil sleuths who have sprung up to sate the market’s voracious appetite for data and intelligence.

“So much of oil data is hidden and we’re trying to make it accessible,” said Mr. Madani, who runs a free oil data website from his house. “Besides, there’s so much drama in oil.”

Dramatic gyrations in the price of oil in the past three years have boosted demand for such services, intensifying competition in a market that for years had been dominated by governments, oil companies and a handful of big data providers.


The new entrants include both amateurs armed with an internet connection and a Twitter account, and professional services using shoebox-sized satellites and sophisticated computer models. They are crunching data on everything from Middle Eastern exports to U.S. drilling. Such statistics often move oil prices as they predict government releases on crude inventories or cover data black spots such as Chinese stockpiles and Iranian tanker movements.

With the proliferation of data sources, the oil industry is catching up to other sectors. Retail and commodity investors, for instance, have long had access to a wealth of sophisticated information on things like store traffic and crop yields. But the free-fall in the price of oil—from more than $100 a barrel in 2014 to around $50 today—created new trading opportunities for hedge funds and day traders.

When Doug King started the Merchant Commodity hedge fund at RCMA Asset Management in 2004, there were only a few outside data sources, he says. “We used to do our own data crunching by hand, it was a simpler time,” said Mr. King, who now subscribes to several data services.

“The oil data industry has exploded,” said Mr. King, chief investment officer at RCMA.

At least three new oil data services companies are launching this year.

One is Kayrros, a Paris-based startup due to open for business in June. It aims to use computer algorithms to analyze satellite imagery, financial data and social news to come up with detailed estimates and forecasts for key oil numbers, says Antoine Halff, a founding partner of the firm.

“A decade or more ago, it used to be people with binoculars sitting in a hotel watching tankers move in and out of the port,” said Mr. Halff, who is also a senior researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

A popular service such firms offer is to track where oil tankers are going. That gives, for instance, insight into how much crude that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are exporting after their deal last year to limit supply.

Another new entrant, Vortexa, promises real-time tracking of more than 94% of all oil cargos globally. The firm was co-founded by a former head of trading technology at oil giant BP PLC.

Paris-based Kpler has 19 data “engineers” spread across offices in France, Singapore and Houston who use sources like shipbrokers and customs data and tiny nanosatellites, which can deliver more-frequent imagery than traditional satellites.

Oil upstarts like Vortexa and Kpler are moving onto the turf of more-established players. Financial data companies like Bloomberg LP, Thomson Reuters Corp. and the commodity market information provider Genscape Inc. have been offering oil data such as tanker movements and production surveys for years. Reuters and Bloomberg compete with Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, on some services.

Services like Louisville, Ky.-based Genscape cost up to several hundred thousand dollars a year, depending on the size of the customer and the data package.

Such hefty price tags have been driving independent traders like Mr. Madani to look for data themselves.

Mr. Madani turned to Twitter. A year ago, he created the #OOTT hashtag, which stands for Organization of Oil Trading Tweeters, to collate posts about oil news and publicly available data. The community quickly grew, with tweets featuring the hashtag reaching more than seven million accounts in the first two weeks of May, according to information provider Klear.

Mr. Madani then started crunching oil data from publicly available sources like free tanker-tracking websites and government statistics. Mr. Madani used a shared Google spreadsheet to publish his findings, and that later grew into TankerTrackers.com, a free oil-data website. He says he doesn’t plan to charge a subscription as his website is aimed at independent traders who often can’t afford professional services.

“We’re looking after the average Joe & Jane,” said Mr. Madani who routinely stays up until 2 a.m. trying to estimate OPEC members’ compliance with the group’s deal to cut production. “We’re all news and data junkies.”

Executives at some of the incumbent providers say they offer more data than the upstarts do, but that they welcome the competition. “The more eyes we have watching the market, the more transparent it gets,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, a New York-based oil data provider.

Lee Saks, New York-based oil futures trader who often tweets using the #OOTT hashtag, says while that such free websites don’t have the resources of paid providers and can make mistakes, “they are on point a lot.”

“Free services can be a decent substitute for paid subscriptions,” he said.

>>> US After Hours Summary: GES +16%, PSTG +11%, WSM +9%, PVH +3.6%, H

After Hours Summary: GES +16%, PSTG +11%, WSM +9%, PVH +3.6%, HPQ +3% following earnings/guidance, INFO +5% on S&P 500 addition news, AERI +27% on Ph 3 trial update... BF.B -1.6% CEO denies sale speculation

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: GES +16.1%, PSTG +10.7%, WSM +8.8%, SBLK +6.2%, CSRA +4.6%, PVH +3.6%, HPQ +3.1%, MOD +3.1%, FSM +3%, SCVL +1.9%, PLUS +1.3%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AERI +27.3% (reports 'successful' primary efficacy results of the 90-day Phase 3 'Mercury 2' registration trial for Roclatan), IDXG +7.3% (is launching a new biomarker to be ordered along with its current molecular thyroid testing options), GLBS +5.4% (continued strength), INFO +4.7% (will replace TEGNA in the S&P 500), GWPH +4.4% (GW Pharma and subsidiary Greenwich Biosciences announce publication of study of Epidiolex in The New England Journal of Medicine; significantly reduced convulsive seizure frequency), EPE +3.7% (announces joint venture with Tesoro to fund oil and natural gas development in Altamont program; the companies also signed a multi-year Crude Oil Supply Agreement), MEIP +3% (initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James), RDUS +2.8% (announced positive top-line results from the completed 24 month ACTIVExtend trial, which met all of its primary and secondary endpoints), IRT +2.2% (will replace Ultratech in the S&P SmallCap 600), SPKE +1.5% (authorized share buyback program of up to $50 mln of Class A common stock), PBYI +1.4% (continued strength), DVMT +0.6% and CRM +0.4% (Salesforce.com and Dell Technologies announced a strategic technology agreement-Salesforce's Intelligent Customer Success Platform to connect Dell sales, service, marketing and more), COL +0.4% (initiated with Outperform at Bernstein; tgt $129), LYV +0.4% (ticking higher, initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim), TRI +0.3% (received approval for the annual renewal of its normal course issuer bid)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: UHAL -3.1% (light volume), NTAP -2.7%, CPRT -2.7%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: CMRE -8.5% (plans to offer 12.5 mln shares of its common stock; the Konstantakopoulos family, who in the aggregate own a majority of the shares, have indicated their intention to purchase approximately $10 million of shares in the offering), CORI -6.8% (to sell shares of common stock in an underwritten public offering), SPEX -5.6% (files for $3 mln common stock offering), EVLV -3.3% (announces $4.5 mln registered direct offering of common stock), HOS -2.7% (will be replaced in the S&P SmallCap 600), OZRK -2.4% (agreed to sell 6.6 million shares of its common stock in an underwritten registered public offering), SUI -2% (commences an underwritten public offering of 3,500,000 shares of its common stock), BF.B -1.6% (CEO reiterates that Brown-Forman is not for sale), SNAP -0.9% (Snap under pressure on reports of advertising discounts)

>>> US Close Dow +0.36% S&P +0.25% Nasdaq +0.40% Russell +0.11%

Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Closes at Record High

Equities posted their fifth consecutive win on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (+0.3%) jumping to a new record high. The Nasdaq (+0.4%) and the Dow (+0.4%) also settled with modest gains after the FOMC minutes for the May 2-3 meeting led to an uptick in buying interest in the afternoon session.

The FOMC minutes revealed that Committee members agree that it will soon be appropriate to begin reducing the central bank's massive balance sheet, and provided a possible straightforward approach to do so. Currently, the central bank is holding the balance sheet steady by reinvesting the principal of maturing securities. But, by the end of the year, the Fed would like to introduce a gradual increase of caps to limit the reinvestment.

Taking steps to reduce the Fed's balance sheet would add to the tightening effect from rising rates, but it is worth noting that the plan revealed in the minutes is not as aggressive as it could be if the Fed decided to stop reinvestments altogether. The Fed's willingness to discuss the issue shows that the central bank has pretty good confidence in the economic outlook, having attributed first quarter weakness to transitory factors.

The fed funds futures market still points to the June FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 83.1%, up from yesterday's 78.5%.

U.S. Treasuries took the FOMC minutes in stride, hitting their best levels of the day following the release; the benchmark 10-yr yield slipped two basis points to 2.26%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (97.01, -0.28) moved lower in tandem with interest rates and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 9.99, -0.73, 6.8%) dropped below the 10.00 mark.

In the equity market, the S&P 500 drifted within a three-point range going into the FOMC minutes, but then moved to a fresh session high following the release. Eight of eleven sectors settled in positive territory, however, sector leadership was weak. The lightly-weighted materials (+0.7%), utilities (+0.7%), and real estate (+0.6%) spaces paced the advanced while the top-weighted technology (+0.5%) and financials (unch) sectors failed to really distinguish themselves.

The energy (-0.4%) sector settled with the telecom services group (-0.7%) at the bottom of the day's leaderboard as crude oil fell 0.3% to $51.35/bbl. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger than expected draw in U.S. crude stocks for the week ended May 19 (-4.4 million barrels actual vs -2.4 million barrels consensus). However, the report prompted little to no movement as investors remained cautious ahead of tomorrow's OPEC/non-OPEC production meeting.

In U.S. corporate news, retailers slipped after producing another largely disappointing batch of earnings; Lowe's (LOW 79.85, -2.49) lost 3.0% on downbeat earnings, Tiffany & Co. (TIF 85.03, -8.11) lost 8.7% on worse than expected revenues, and Advance Auto Parts (AAP 133.02, -7.64) dropped 5.4% after missing top and bottom line estimates. The SPDR S&P 500 Retail ETF (XRT 40.40, -0.15) lost 0.4% while the consumer discretionary sector (+0.4%) finished a tick above the broader market.

The remaining sectors--industrials (+0.1%), health care (+0.2%), and consumer staples (+0.5%)--finished the session with modest gains.

On the data front, investors received several economic reports on Wednesday, including April Existing Home Sales, the March FHFA Housing Price Index, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index:

  • Existing home sales for April decreased 2.3% from March to an annualized rate of 5.57 million units while the consensus expected a reading of 5.65 million. The prior month's reading was revised to 5.70 million from 5.71 million.
    • The key takeaway from the report remains the same: existing home sales are being impeded by a lack of affordable supply, particularly in the lower- and mid-market price range.
  • The FHFA Housing Price Index for March increased 0.6%, which followed an unrevised increase of 0.8% in February.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 4.4% to follow last week's 4.1% decrease.

Tomorrow, investors will receive Initial Claims (consensus 238,000) and April Advance International Trade in Goods. Both reports will cross the wires at 8:30 ET.

  • Nasdaq Composite +14.5% YTD
  • S&P 500 +7.4% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +6.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +1.9% YTD

Fwd:(Challenges) How Safran saved its takeover bid on Zodiac



How Safran saved its takeover bid on Zodiac

Four months after the launch of its takeover bid on Zodiac, the French engine manufacturer has revised its offer down by about 15%. To save an operation undermined by the activism of the TCI fund and the profit warning of Zodiac.

The boat pitched, squeaked, but it finally held tight. After four months of storm, between the new warnings on Zodiac results and the relentless guerrilla campaign led by the TCI activist fund against the deal, Safran finally managed to build a new takeover bid for Zodiac Aerospace. To save his operation, the French engine manufacturer made two major changes. One, he reduced the proposed price to 25 euros per share, 5 euros less than announced on 19 January (29.47 euros). Safran is offering 8.7 billion euros, one billion less than in January, which represents a discount of 15%, as the Tribune had unveiled Wednesday morning .
Secondly, the French aeronautics group has simplified its offer. That of January was based on a complex mechanism, with a takeover bid and then a merger, allowing Zodiac shareholders to benefit from the tax advantages of the Dutreil pact. The TCI fund had made this mechanism a casus belli, ensuring that it introduced an unequal treatment between shareholders. Safran now offers a more traditional offer: a cash offer at € 25 per share, uncapped, and a subsidiary offer, in Safran shares, limited to 31.4% of the capital of Zodiac, with a prohibition on sale Of shares for three years.
TCI Guerrilla
The offer was validated unanimously by the boards of the two groups, and the operation seems to be saved. The contrary winds had multiplied in four months. First, TCI's repeated attacks on the operation. The British activist fund multiplied the letters to the members of Safran's board, some even threatening to prosecute them if they continued to support the operation. TCI even assured in a report published in early May that Zodiac was worth no more than 6 to 8 euros per share, and in no case more than 10 euros ... This all-out offensive had been reinforced by the new warnings on result of Zodiac, related To new problems on aircraft seat activity, which had the effect of a cold shower on the operation.
Ross McInnes, the Chairman of the Board, and Philippe Petitcolin, CEO of Safran, finally stood firm. The interest of the operation is intact, they assure in chorus. "We have been listening to our shareholders since January and have taken their remarks into account when they are constructive," said Ross McInnes, quoted in the statement. "We are absolutely convinced of the strategic logic of the operation." According to the group, the integration of Zodiac by Safran should even make it possible to resolve more quickly the crisis of activity seats and interiors of aircraft. "I personally visited recently several industrial sites of Zodiac in Europe and in the United States to verify that the skills of Safran will solve the current difficulties," says Philippe Petitcolin in the release. However, Ross McInnes acknowledged that the recovery of the margins of Zodiac could take "one or two years" more than envisaged last January. "There will probably be a loss of markets, but the fundamentals are good," assures the Chairman of Safran.
200 million annual synergies
For the rest, the group's managers were careful to reassure the shareholders of the group. One, Safran maintained its target of 200 million euros in synergies per year, of which 90% three years after completion of the operation and 100% over five years, thanks to "optimization of international locations" , In clear the rationalization of the many factories of Zodiac. Two, he confirmed his promise to launch a share buyback program worth € 2.3 billion over two years. Three, he insists to continue to pay 40% of his net profit in dividends, and promises to remain in the investment grade rating agencies.
The track seems free for a finalization of the offer in early January 2018. What to content the two camps: Safran gets his hand on a long-sought-after target, which had refused his advances on several occasions. As for Zodiac, he spares himself the trauma of a failure of the operation. At the end of April, the group announced the development of a plan B, based on maintaining the group's independence, to the former CEO of Faurecia Yann Delabrière. But this scenario would probably have resulted in a sharp fall in the Zodiac title, as markets no longer hide their mistrust for a group that has accumulated eleven warnings on results in two and a half years.
Departure from Zarrouati after the operation
Zodiac CEO Olivier Zarrouati, who was to become number two in the group merged under the terms of the first offer, should eventually let go of the group once the deal is finalized. As for the family shareholders of Zodiac, they should bring their shares to the Safran offer. "The majority should opt for the offer of securities, and thus become shareholders of Safran," assures a source close to Zodiac. Only a few family shareholders (5% of the maximum share capital) should remain Zodiac's shareholders for an indefinite period, pending the launch of a mandatory withdrawal operation.

Fwd:(Challenges) Comment Safran a sauvé son OPA sur Zodiac



Comment Safran a sauvé son OPA sur Zodiac

Quatre mois après le lancement de son OPA sur Zodiac, le motoriste français a revu son offre à la baisse, de 15% environ. De quoi sauver une opération mise à mal par l'activisme du fonds TCI et les profit warning de Zodiac.

Le bateau a tangué, grincé, mais il a finalement tenu bon. Après quatre mois de tempête, entre les nouveaux avertissements sur résultats de Zodiac et l’implacable guérilla menée par le fonds activiste TCI contre l’opération, Safran est finalement parvenu à construire une nouvelle offre de rachat de Zodiac Aerospace. Pour sauver son opération, le motoriste français a effectué deux changements majeurs. Un, il a réduit le prix proposé à 25 euros par action, soit 5 euros de moins que celui annoncé le 19 janvier (29,47 euros). Safran propose ainsi 8,7 milliards d'euros, soit un milliard de moins qu'en janvier, ce qui représente une décote de 15%, comme l’avait dévoilé la Tribune mercredi matin.
Deuxième changement de fond, le groupe aéronautique français a simplifié son offre. Celle de janvier était basée sur un mécanisme complexe, avec une OPA, puis une fusion, ce qui permettait aux familles actionnaires de Zodiac de bénéficier des avantages fiscaux du pacte Dutreil. Le fonds TCI avait fait de ce mécanisme un casus belli, assurant qu’elle introduisait une inégalité de traitement entre les actionnaires. Safran propose désormais une offre plus classique: une offre en cash à 25 euros l’action, non plafonnée, et une offre subsidiaire, en titres Safran, limitée à 31,4% du capital de Zodiac, et assortie d’une interdiction de cession des actions durant trois ans.
Guérilla de TCI
L’offre ayant été validée à l’unanimité des conseils des deux groupes, l’opération semble bel et bien sauvée. Les vents contraires s’étaient pourtant multipliés depuis quatre mois. D’abord, les attaques répétées de TCI contre l’opération. Le fonds activiste britannique a multiplié les lettres aux membres du conseil de Safran, certaines les menaçant même de poursuites s’ils continuaient de soutenir l’opération. TCI assurait même dans un rapport publié début mai que Zodiac ne valait pas plus de 6 à 8 euros l’action, et en aucun cas plus de 10 euros… Cette offensive tous azimuts avait été renforcée par les nouveaux avertissements sur résultat de Zodiac, liés à de nouveaux problèmes sur l’activité sièges d’avions, qui avaient fait l’effet d’une douche froide sur l’opération.
Ross McInnes, le président du conseil, et Philippe Petitcolin, DG de Safran, ont finalement tenu bon. L’intérêt de l’opération est intact, assurent-ils en chœur. "Depuis janvier dernier, nous avons été à l’écoute de nos actionnaires et avons pris en compte leurs remarques quand elles sont constructives, assure Ross McInnes, cité dans le communiqué. Nous sommes absolument convaincus de la logique stratégique de l’opération". A en croire le groupe, l’intégration de Zodiac par Safran devrait même permettre de résoudre plus rapidement la crise de l’activité sièges et intérieurs d’avions. "J’ai personnellement visité récemment de nombreux sites industriels de Zodiac en Europe et aux Etats-Unis pour vérifier que les compétences de Safran permettront de résoudre les difficultés actuelles", indique Philippe Petitcolin dans le communiqué. Ross McInnes a toutefois reconnu que le redressement des marges de Zodiac pourrait prendre "un ou deux ans" de plus qu'envisagé en janvier dernier. "Il y aura probablement une perte de marchés, mais les fondamentaux sont bons", assure le président du conseil de Safran.
200 millions de synergies annuelles
Pour le reste, les dirigeants du groupe ont bien pris garde de rassurer les actionnaires du groupe. Un, Safran a maintenu son objectif de 200 millions d’euros de synergies par an, dont 90% trois ans après la fin de l’opération, et 100% à horizon de cinq ans, grâce à "l’optimisation des implantations internationales", en clair la rationalisation des nombreuses usines de Zodiac. Deux, il a confirmé sa promesse de lancer un programme de rachat d’actions à hauteur de 2,3 milliards d’euros sur deux ans. Trois, il assure vouloir continuer de verser 40% de son résultat net en dividendes, et promet de rester dans la catégorie investment grade des agences de notation.
La voie semble donc libre pour une finalisation de l’offre début janvier 2018. De quoi contenter les deux camps: Safran met la main sur une cible convoitée de longue date, qui avait refusé ses avances à plusieurs reprises. Quant à Zodiac, il s'épargne le traumatisme d'un échec de l'opération. Le groupe avait confié fin avril le développement d'un plan B, basé sur le maintien de l'indépendance du groupe, à l'ex-PDG de Faurecia Yann Delabrière. Mais ce scénario aurait probablement abouti à une chute brutale du titre Zodiac, les marchés ne cachant plus leur méfiance pour un groupe qui a cumulé onze avertissements sur résultats en deux ans et demi.
Départ de Zarrouati après l'opération
Le président du directoire de Zodiac Olivier Zarrouati, qui devait devenir numéro deux du groupe fusionné selon les termes de la première offre, devrait finalement lâcher les rênes du groupe une fois l'opération finalisée. Quant aux actionnaires familiaux de Zodiac, ils devraient apporter leurs titres à l’offre de Safran. "La majorité devrait opter pour l’offre en titres, et donc devenir actionnaires de Safran", assure une source proche de Zodiac. Seuls quelques actionnaires familiaux (5% du capital maximum) devraient rester actionnaires de Zodiac pour une durée indéterminée, en attendant le lancement d’une opération de retrait obligatoire.