>>> US Close Modest Gains Leave Stocks at Record Hig

Closing Market Summary: Modest Gains Leave Stocks at Record Highs

U.S. stocks finished the week on a positive note, helped by a favorable Employment Situation Report for November.

Both the S&P 500 and the Dow settled at new all-time highs, adding 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. The Nasdaq finished slightly behind its peers, adding 0.4%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 showed relative weakness, finishing with a gain of just 0.1%. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.4%.

The Employment Situation Report for November showed strong job growth and subdued wage growth, keeping in line with recent trends. Nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected (228K actual vs 190K consensus), average hourly earnings rose less than expected (+0.2% actual vs +0.3% consensus), and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%.

In short, the report isn't likely to keep the Fed from raising rates at next week's meeting, but it could give the Fed a cause for pause going into 2018. 

A positive vibe from overseas equity markets also contributed to the upbeat sentiment on Wall Street. Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region finished Friday broadly higher as investors rallied around China's better-than-expected November trade surplus (+$40.21 billion actual vs +$35.00 billion expected). Japan's Nikkei added 1.4%, finishing flat for the week.

Elsewhere, the Euro Stoxx 50 settled with a gain of 0.6% after the UK and the European Union reached an agreement on Brexit divorce terms. Britain will pay as much as GBP39 billion to complete the separation and there will be no hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Talks will now turn to future trade relations.

In addition, Congress' decision to pass a two-week stopgap spending bill, which delayed an impending government shutdown, helped underpin Friday's advance.

The S&P 500's telecom services sector (+1.5%) was the top-performing group, followed from a distance by the heavily-weighted health care space (+1.1%). Within the health care group, biotech names showed particular strength, sending the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 106.07, +2.02) higher by 1.9%.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN 114.46, +7.68) paced the biotech rally, jumping 7.2%, after the New York Times reported that activist hedge fund Elliot Management has urged the biotech company to do more to lift its stock price. Celgene (CELG 106.09, +3.36) also outperformed, adding 3.3%, after Atlantic Equities upgraded its shares to 'Overweight.'

In total, ten of eleven sectors finished Friday's session in positive territory, with the lightly-weighted materials space (unch) being the lone laggard. 

Outside the equity market, U.S. Treasuries finished mostly flat, with the benchmark 10-yr yield closing unchanged at 2.38%, while the U.S. Dollar Index ticked up 0.1% to 93.88. West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 1.1% to $57.30 per barrel, but still finished the week lower by 1.8%.

Reviewing Friday's economic data, which included the Employment Situation Report for November, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December, and October Wholesale Inventories:

  • Employment Situation Report
    • November nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000 while the consensus expected an increase of 190,000. The prior month's increase was revised to 244,000 from 261,000. Nonfarm private payrolls rose by 221,000 while the consensus expected an increase of 170,000. The previous month's increase was revised to 247,000 from 252,000.
    • The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% (consensus 4.1%). Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% (consensus +0.3%), while the previous month's reading was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%. The average workweek was reported at 34.5 (consensus 34.4). The previous month's reading was left unrevised at 34.4.
      • The key takeaway from the report is that wage growth remains subdued. That isn't likely to keep the Fed from raising rates at this month's meeting, yet it could give the Fed a data-based reason to move more slowly on the next rate hike in 2018.
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment:
    • The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December declined to 96.8 (consensus 98.8) from 98.5 in November.
      • The key takeaway from the report is that consumers continue to remain upbeat about current economic conditions, with higher income expectations feeding their optimism. As an aside, there was also a jump in consumers' inflation expectations for 2018.
  • Wholesale Inventories
    • October Wholesale Inventories decreased 0.5% (consensus -0.4%). The September reading was revised to +0.1% from +0.3%.
      • The key takeaway from the report is that the sales increase outpaced the inventory increase by a sizable margin, which is a step in the right direction for wholesalers trying to regain some pricing power.

On Monday, investors will receive just one economic report--the October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey--which will be released at 10:00 ET.

  • Nasdaq Composite +27.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +23.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 +18.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +12.1% YTD

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:
  • AOBC -15.3%, FNSR -3.3%, COO -3.3%
Other news:
  • AQMS -18.3% (commences common stock offering)
  • TELL -13.9% (prices $10 mln shares of common stock at $10.00 per share)
  • CVO -10.9% (Rotation Capital Management liquidates stake)
  • GSAT -7.9% (announced an offering of 38,000,000 shares of voting common stock by holders)
  • PRTY -4.5% (Party City launches 10 mln share secondary offering by selling stockholders and repurchase of common stock)
  • FENC -3% (to offer common shares in an underwritten public offering)
  • ERIC -1% (restated financials for new segments for 2015 - 2017 is now published; goodwill re-allocation and impairment testing will now begin and be completed in the Q4 closing)
Analyst comments:
  • CIEN -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray)
  • JCI -1.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
  • BLL -1.1% (downgraded to Underweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts)
  • JBT -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:
  • GLBS +32.6%, FSCT +7.1%, CLDR +6.3%, SAIC +3.5%, DTEA +1.2%, (also to explore strategic alternatives, which may include a sale or other transaction)
M&A news:
  • SIGM +24.1% (Sigma Designs to be acquired by SLAB for $7.05 per share in a cash transaction valued at approx $282 mln; also reported earnings)
Other news:
  • STDY +24.2% (receives final minutes from the FDA on the work necessary to resubmit its New Drug Application for Trevyent)
  • TROV +22.6% (presents data showing sensitivity of Triple Negative Breast Cancer cell lines to PCM-075 and synergy with Zytiga at San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium)
  • DCIX +21.9% (following GLBS earnings)
  • ERYP +20.1% (reports top-line results of Phase 2b study of Eryaspase; did not meet did not meet its primary endpoint of overall survival )
  • GLBR +11.1% (after closing near highs - up 200% on the day)
  • ALXN +8.1% (Elliott wants changes at ALXN, according to NY Times)
  • OLED +6.1% (Universal Display announces the signing of long-term OLED Agreements with BOE Technology Group)
  • MNOV +6% (MediciNova reports positive top-line results from clinical trial of MN-166 (ibudilast) in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; achieved the primary endpoint)
  • VSTM +4.5% (Director disclosed purchase of 60538 shares)
  • DEA +4% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
  • DRYS +3.8% (following GLBS earnings)
  • HIMX +2.8% (responds to Citron allegations; strongly denies allegations of fraud)
  • RDUS +2.2% (details recent elacestrant data presentations; to discontinue further evaluation for vasomotor symptoms to focus on development as breast cancer treatment), CUTR +2% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
  • UAL +1.8% (reports November traffic; raises Q4 unit revenue guidance to down 0-2% from down 1-3%; announces new $3 bln share repurchase program; Kate Gebo named executive vice president Human Resources and Labor Relations, replacing Mike Bonds, who announced his retirement earlier this year)
  • SGMO +0.9% (receives EMA recommendation of orphan medicinal product designation for investigational genome editing treatments for MPS I And MPS II)
  • BA +0.7% (following CEO appearance on MadMoney)
Analyst comments:
  • CBIO +9.1% (initiated with a Buy at B. Riley FBR, Inc; tgt $19 (closed at 7.15 on Thurs))
  • TRVG +8.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
  • BSX +2.7% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham)
  • FMSA +2.3% (initiated with a Buy at Seaport Global Securities)
  • LC +1.7% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Compass Point)
  • PRGO +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus)
  • CELG +0.9% (upgraded to Overweight at Atlantic Equities)
  • TCP +0.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)

>>> Jumbo could buy several small supermarkets in The Netherlands

Jumbo could buy several small supermarkets in The Netherlands – report (translated)
08 DEC 2017
Dutch supermarket chain Jumbo could acquire several small supermarkets in The Netherlands in the near future, RTL Nieuws reported, citing several retail experts. Jumbo at the moment is the second largest supermarket chain in The Netherlands but needs substantial growth in order to keep that position. Buying several struggling supermarkets that are seeking partners or want to be taken over would be a way to achieve that, the report said.
In November Frits van Eerd, general director of Jumbo, in an interview with the Dutch daily Algemeen Dagblad said that a few months earlier he had tried to acquire supermarket chain Emté, but his offer was refused. Still, he has not given up on the idea, van Eerd was quoted as saying.
Jumbo is a family owned company with 600 shops and 70,000 employees. Last year its turnover was EUR 6.7bn.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up:
  • TROV +41.3%, SIGM +23.2%, GLBS +22.7%, ERYP +20.8%, GLBR +11.1%, DCIX +8%, CLDR +7.8%, ALXN +7.3%, FSCT +7.1%, VSTM +4.5%, DEA +4.4%, OLED +4%, SAIC +3.5%, DTEA +2.4%, DRYS +2%, CUTR +2%, HIMX +1.9%, UAL +1.8%, BA +1.1%, DAL +1.1%, SGMO +0.9%, MNOV +0.9%, RDUS +0.8%
Gapping down:
  • AOBC -16.6%, AQMS -16.3%, TELL -14.5%, CVO -10.9%, GSAT -7.9%, COO -3.3%, PRTY -3%, FENC -3%, FNSR -3%, ERIC -1%, DOV -0.7%

(BofA-ML) Thr Flow Show

Asset Class Flows (Table 2)
Equities: inflows 24 of past 26 weeks ($3.1bn; $13.7bn into ETFs, 
$10.6bn outflows from mutual funds, largest in 52 weeks)
Bonds: inflows 37 of past 38 weeks ($1.2bn)
Precious metals: 6th straight week of in
flows ($0.3bn)

Fixed Income Flows (Chart 3)
Smallest of 50 straight weeks of IG bond fund inflows ($1.4bn)
6th straight week of HY bond fund outflows ($1.7bn)
EM debt inflows 43 of past 45 weeks ($2.2bn)
Largest muni funds outflows in 49 weeks ($0.6bn)
Small outflows from govt/Tsy funds ($0.04bn)
7th straight week of TIPS inflows ($0.3bn)
Small bank loan outflows ($0.3bn)

Equity Flows (Table 3)
US: modest inflows ($1.7bn)
Japan: modest inflows ($1.3bn)
Europe: small outflows ($0.5bn)
EM: small outflow ($0.4bn)
By style: small US small caps inflows ($0.6bn), largest outflows from US growth for 45 weeks ($3.9bn), 7th straight week of outflows from US value ($1.0bn)
By sector: inflows to financials ($1.5bn), consumer ($1.0bn), tech ($0.3bn), materials ($0.3bn), energy ($0.2bn); outflows utilities ($0.07bn), healthcare ($0.4bn), real estate ($0.7bn)


Talking Points
* Inflows to Wall St: $3.1bn into equities, $1.2bn into bonds, $0.3bn into gold
* “Growth” trade reverses: big (7th largest ever) redemption from US equity growth
funds, inflows to tech funds waning; coincides with bout of weakness in tech (e.g. EMQQ
-11%, SOX -10% in 10 trading days)
* “Yield” trade fades: smallest IG inflows in 50 weeks ($1.4bn), 6th consecutive week of
HY outflows; largest EM debt inflows in 26 weeks ($2.2bn) buck trend but note both EM
debt & equities struggling in recent weeks
* Rotation needs wages: “growth” in equities, “yield” in bonds = QE-leadership: ends
when “end of QE + start of fiscal stimulus + start of inflation = higher bond yields”;
missing evidence is inflation…US tax reform needs wage growth to cause higher yields
& sustained rotation to QE-losers; wage data critical in coming months
* Crashes need China: China bond yields rising in response to PBoC tightening (EM
reflects this); but higher China yields (Chart 1) precursor to asset inflection point (XBT,
EEQQ potential victims) not big global growth surge & G7 bond crash
* How to play the Nov payroll: note >0.3/0.4% MoM needed next 3-4 months to
breakout US wage growth above 3%; thus AHE <0.2% MoM = yield curve flattens, buy
US & EM tech, buy HY, sell volatility; AHE >0.4% MoM = yield curve steepens, buy RTY,
BKX, DXY, TPX, volatility
* Big Inflows…Poor Returns: record inflows 2017 into bonds ($347bn), stocks ($286bn);
but years of big equity inflows (2010/13/14) were followed by poor returns (2011/14/15
– see Table 1); this especially case when BofAML Bull & Bear high (currently 6.4); we
believe upside for risk assets in Q4/Q1 big but both credit & stocks peak early-18)

>>> General Cable/Prysmian likely to face EC scrutiny on horizontal overlaps

MergerMarket
General Cable/Prysmian likely to face EC scrutiny on horizontal overlaps
08 DEC 2017

Focus on Prysmian’s leading position increase
Market changes could reduce impact of past cartels

Prysmian’s [BIT:PRY] acquisition of General Cable [NYSE:BGC] is likely to face horizontal overlap scrutiny by the European Commission (EC), a source familiar with the matter and a sector lawyer said.

The companies announced on 4 December that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Prysmian will acquire General Cable for USD 30.00/ share in cash.

The deal will need approval by EU and US competition agencies, according to a regulatory filing.

The parties are confident that since horizontal overlaps are very marginal, the deal will get EC clearance “very easily,” a second source said.

Unilateral effects stemming from a potential strengthening of Prysmian’s market position are likely to be the focus of an EC review, the lawyer said. The companies’ cartel history will also prompt the EC to zoom in on coordinated effects, although these could be mitigated by market changes, he said.

Prysmian Group is a world leader in the energy and telecom cables and systems industry. The Italian company derives 67% of its revenue from Europe, 15% from NorthAm, 12% from APAC and 6% from LatAm.

Kentucky-based General Cable is a global player in the development, design, manufacture, marketing and distribution of copper, aluminum and fiber optic wire and cable products. It derives 59% of its revenue from North America and is also present in Europe (23%) and Latam (18%).

The investigation’s relevant markets will be cables in all their forms and shapes, the second source said.

Prysmian and France’s Nexans [EPA: NEX] have a strong position in cable markets in Europe, the lawyer noted. General Cable is smaller but has increased its presence over the past few years, so it should be regarded as a meaningful competitor to Prysmian, he added.

In Draka/Prysmian (2011) the EC zoomed in on optical fibre and general wire, where both Prysmian and General Cable are active. Prysmian was found to be leading both markets in the EEA. The Italian company had 20%-30% share of wiring against General Cable’s 5%-10% share of the same market. The decision did not specify General Cable’s share of optical fibre, though listing it among Prysmian’s competitors.

However, even a 10% increase in Prysmian’s share following the deal could be relevant, the lawyer noted, as the Italian company has up to 60%-70% share in some markets. The EC used several different parameters in defining markets in previous decisions, the lawyer said, including end use (communications, energy) and voltage.

Prysmian operates in underground and submarine cables and systems for power transmission and distribution, special cables for applications in many different industries and medium and low voltage cables for the construction and infrastructure sectors. For the telecommunications industry, the group manufactures cables and accessories for voice, video and data transmission, offering a range of optical fibres, optical and copper cables and connectivity systems.

Cartels and coordinated effects

The EC is likely to take a close look at coordinated effects due to the companies’ past involvement in cartels in the sector, the lawyer said. But changes in the market - in particular the entry of Asian players - could convince the EC that similar behaviour is unlikely to occur again, he said. However, the second source played down any potential impact of “closed cartel investigations” on the merger review, noting that there was no mention of cartel behaviour in Draka/Prysmian, for example.

In 2014, Prysmian and General Cable’s subsidiary Silec were among the 11 companies held liable by the EC for a cartel aimed at restricting competition for high voltage underground and submarine power cable projects.

The producers had agreed on market and customer allocation, the EC found. The cartel included Japanese and Korean producers refraining from competing for projects in the EEA, thus staying out of the European companies' home territory.

In clearing a deal in the sector earlier this year, NKT’s [CPH: NKT] acquisition by ABB [VTX: ABBN], the EC spelt out that a coordinated effects assessment had been important “given the history of collusion in the industry”. However, the EC’s investigation revealed that “the recent and successful entry of competitors from Asia, such as LS Cables and Sumitomo, were helping to drive and ensure competition in the high voltage cable and power cable accessories markets”.

General Cable’s Spanish subsidiary Grupo General Cable Sistemas was recently fined - together with other nine cable companies - by the Spanish competition authority and a business association for involvement in one or more of five cartels.

Both Prysmian and General Cable appealed the EC's decision to the EU General Court.

Prysmian was not able to be reached for comment. General Cable declined to comment.