FT : Jean-Claude Biver: shrewd timing helped face down crisis

Jean-Claude Biver: shrewd timing helped face down crisis
Luxury watchmaker met the Apple Watch challenge head on

In a boardroom on a boat moored off Geneva’s Quai du Mont-Blanc, Jean-Claude Biver is explaining his first success in business, furiously thumping the table to punctuate his words.

In the early 1980s, the luxury Swiss watch industry faced a near-existential crisis: Japanese manufacturers had threatened to render mechanical watches obsolete by introducing cheap, more accurate quartz models, and sales told accordingly.

Swatch’s founder, Nicolas Hayek, played the Japanese at their own game, launching Swiss-made $50 plastic quartz watches in every colour. But Mr Biver played the contrarian.

In 1981, he had just bought the rights to Blancpain, a defunct Swiss mechanical brand. He took out an advertising campaign with a provocative tagline, which he delivers with gusto: “Since 1735 there has never been a Blancpain quartz watch” — thump! — “and there will never” — thump! — “be one!”


Everybody wondered, he says, if he was crazy, but his strategy resuscitated Blancpain and he sold it to the Swatch Group a decade later for SFr60m (SFr74m/$80m in today’s money).

This outspoken and counterintuitive approach is anathema in the rarefied world of the Swiss watch industry, where discretion and precision reigns. Most brands advertise themselves as heirs to a slow and subtle tradition of mechanical master watchmakers. Prices in the hundreds of thousands of Swiss francs are justified by a reverence for the craft.

But subtle reverence has never been Mr Biver’s habit. It is his boldness that has helped him to build strategies for surviving crises — not just once but again and again. Now 68, he is chief executive of TAG Heuer, the luxury watchmaker pitched at a younger, sportier crowd. He also leads LVMH’s watchmaking division, and is still unafraid of upsetting people.

This includes LVMH executives who have not agreed with his strategies. But throughout the second great crisis of his career — the luxury watch industry’s downturn of 2015-16, in part caused by the launch of another, cheaper innovation, the Apple Watch — he has once again focused solely on his vision.

After selling Blancpain, he became bored without a job, so he phoned Hayek, who put him in charge of reviving Omega, the Swiss luxury brand owned by Swatch. He tripled sales by positioning the brand as the choice of James Bond, then he moved to Hublot, another luxury watchmaker in need of a dynamite turnround, as chief executive.

There he combined a bright, almost gaudy, aesthetic with Swiss mechanical know-how, rejecting the industry’s broad subtlety. In 2008, he and the brand’s founder sold it to LVMH for an undisclosed amount.

Then came a triple crisis after he became chief executive at TAG Heuer in 2014. In China, as part of a general anti-corruption clampdown, the government restricted “gifting”, which often involved businesspeople bestowing expensive watches on dignitaries and functionaries. The move sent sales falling 25 per cent in Hong Kong in 2016 alone.


Terrorism in Europe put off tourists, pushing exports to France down 20 per cent. Then in mid-2015 Apple launched its smartwatch, which has sold 33m units by the estimate of market intelligence service Asymco. Swiss watch exports fell from about SFr22bn in 2014 to SFr19.4bn in 2016.

Mr Biver insists he saw Apple’s digital disruption as an opportunity. “We had a structural crisis in the 1970s which was quartz, and quartz made our products obsolete,” he says. “The [second] crisis that we just went through didn’t make our products obsolete; it was just that the customer didn’t buy.”

He fought back in two ways: by marketing TAG heavily and unashamedly, ploughing money into adverts in print, online and through events and social media, just as his rivals pulled back. And he was quick off the mark with TAG’s riposte to the Apple Watch, the Connected watch, which he launched in 2015 and whose global sales he monitors on his phone.

Many Swiss watch brands at the time shunned the idea of producing smartwatches, but Mr Biver was convinced that facing the enemy head-on would work. “Whoever can spend $1,000 on an Apple Watch could also spend $1,000 on a TAG Heuer watch. “If he wants a smartwatch and TAG Heuer has no smartwatch, he will buy the smartwatch he can find, which is the Apple.”

His targets were more modest than Apple’s: he is pleased with 70,000 sales of the Connected watch, starting at £1,000, since April 2017. That, he says, is a significant number of new customers.

Another tactic was to try to attract teenagers, a future generation of TAG Heuer customers, to make them aware of the world beyond smartwatches. He hired Alec Monopoly, a street artist with a youthful following, as a brand ambassador. His marketing director, in Mr Biver’s telling, took it badly: “He said, ‘You are stupid, this is totally wrong, we must concentrate on the people who can buy!’” Shortly afterwards the marketing director left the company.

LVMH does not break down sales by brand, but its watches and jewellery group’s revenues increased during this period of turmoil, from €3.3bn in 2015 to €3.8bn last year. TAG grew its market share in 2016, though it did not disclose the proportion.


Where did Mr Biver’s single-mindedness come from? When he and his younger brother were at Swiss boarding school, far from their home in Luxembourg, he says he protected his sibling from bullies, and if this did not make him a leader, he says, it at least taught him how to lead. The rest, he asserts, is hereditary.

Spreadsheets and study can make you competent, he implies, but never visionary. There are plenty of passionate but bad visions, he says, and there is no point in being a visionary without timing: too early or too late and the market is not ready.

In fact, Mr Biver points to Apple as an example of measuring the success of visionary leadership: to have groomed competent heirs. “This is the only way to judge management: wait until the guy dies, wait five years, and see where the company is.”

FT : Incoming call glitch latest to hit iPhone X

Incoming call glitch latest to hit iPhone X
Apple owners report problems with $1,000 device’s most basic function

Some owners of Apple’s new iPhone X are finding an unusual bug in their $1,000 piece of kit — answering the phone.

Apple’s three-month-old flagship device boasts a brand new design, can be unlocked with a glance thanks to sophisticated facial recognition software, and has been hailed by chief executive Tim Cook as preparing the iPhone for its second decade. 

However, hundreds of owners have complained on Apple forums that their pocket supercomputer cannot accomplish the most basic task that even a $10 phone can, namely taking an incoming call. 

When it rings, the iPhone’s touchscreen appears to be delayed from turning on for up to 10 seconds, preventing the user from tapping the virtual button required to answer a call. 

“Whenever I receive an incoming call in my iPhone X, ringtones start but the display comes in after 6-8 seconds,” says one user on Apple’s support pages. 

Hundreds of other customers on that post and similar complaints on Apple’s forums have indicated they are suffering the same problem. 

“I can often not see an incoming call coming, can only hear it! At other times, there is a significant delay :( ,” reads another post. 

Apple said that it was “looking into these reports”.

The bug is the latest problem to plague Apple’s tenth-anniversary smartphone after production delays pushed back its launch from the iPhone’s usual September debut and follows reports of underwhelming sales volumes that have sent its shares plunging in recent days. 

Recommended
Apple hits record revenues despite 1% fall in iPhone sales
iPhone X helps Apple regain lost ground in China
Apple iPhone slowdown tests consumer loyalty
A 4 per cent drop in Apple’s stock on Friday sent it into what is known on Wall Street as a “correction” — a 10 per cent decline over sequential days. The move is Apple’s first correction in more than a year and came amid a broader market sell-off on Friday. 

The latest stock slump followed Thursday’s earnings report which saw iPhone units fall by 1 per cent in the crucial holiday quarter, missing analysts’ forecasts, even as net profits of $20bn beat market expectations. 

Nonetheless, Mr Cook insisted on Thursday that customer satisfaction was “off the charts” for the iPhone X. He pointed to a study by market researcher 451 Research that found US customer satisfaction ratings of 96 per cent or higher for all iPhones. 

Concerns are growing about the longer-term prospects for the iPhone X, which quality issues such as the incoming call bug will only amplify. Apple forecast sales for the three months to March of $60bn-$62bn, several billion dollars less than Wall Street had been expecting. 

Rumours from the supply chain of Apple’s order cuts are intensifying and have now extended into the June quarter, after the publication Business Korea suggested on Friday that it may discontinue the iPhone X altogether in September. 

Complaints among Apple customers about its software quality have also been steadily mounting in recent months. In December, it rushed to patch a significant security flaw in its Mac operating system, forcing a rare apology from Apple. 

Last week, news site Axios reported that Apple was delaying feature improvements from the next version of the iPhone’s operating system, iOS, in order to focus on underlying performance and reliability.

On Friday, Apple said it would offer free repairs to a “small percentage” of iPhone 7 owners whose devices indicated they had no cellular service, even when wireless coverage was available. 

>>> Barrons weekend summary: positive features on GM, DMVT Cover

Barrons weekend summary: positive features on GM, DMVT 

* Cover story: Barron’s list of the 100 Most Sustainable Companies is topped by CSCO, CRM, BBY, INTU, and HPQ, based on research produced by Calvert Research and Management that rated companies on their demonstrated responsibility in five key stakeholder categories: shareholders, employees, customers, planet, and community. 

* Features: 1) Positive on GM: Automaker is a “story stock,” trading on distant expectations, not current income; A number of initiatives, such as its acquisition of Cruise Automation, have helped it gain ground in the self-driving vehicle sector, and shares are moving up; 2) Harry Markowitz, Nobel Prize winner and father of modern portfolio theory, has invested all his assets in the stock market, betting that destruction from last year’s hurricanes will boost reconstruction industries; 3) Positive on DVMT: “Concerns about Michael Dell’s plans for VMW, which is controlled by his privately held Dell Technologies, have created an opportunity in shares of the Dell tracking stock for VMware.” 

* Tech Trader: Investors seem unconcerned about the risks facing large-cap tech companies such as AAPL and FB, and considering their challenges—slow iPhone X sales at Apple and a drop in users at Facebook—their shares seem to have a “teflon sheen.” 

* Trader: After Friday’s drop, the S&P 500 still trades at 17.7 times forward earnings, meaning a further decrease “would reset the base for equities,” according to Jason Pride of Glenmede—a healthy pullback; + DHR: Company may not be fast-growing, but it has consistency in increasing sales, cutting costs, and improving efficiency, making it a reliable pick; Some investors don’t think Berkshire Hathaway, AMZN, and JPM’s healthcare initiative will succeed, and that the market response, which punished traditional providers, was an overreaction. 

* Profile: John Mowrey, co-manager of the AllianzGI NFJ Mid-Cap Value fund, seeks relative value instead of the cheapest or highest-yielding stocks (top 10 holdings: DHI, LUV, THO, SPR, EQM, VLO, DFS, NSC, MPC, CMA). 

* Interview: Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners talks about the perils facing municipal bonds, and is bullish about international stocks and active management. 

* Follow-Up: Three pundits whose predictions for the S&P 500 in 2018 were the highest and still haven’t been surpassed by the market remain upbeat despite recent rapid market gains. 

* European Trader: Positive on Beazley: The Data Protection Regulation soon to take effect in the European Union should boost demand for shares of the company, which offers cyberattack insurance. 

* Asian Trader: Positive on Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology: The world’s largest maker of surveillance cameras, which also makes software and manages back-end storage, could benefit if Donald Trump is able to build his Mexican-border wall. 

* Emerging Markets: The two clear beneficiaries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership are Vietnam and Malaysia, and the pact also marks an ambitious shift for Japan. 

* Commodities: “As palladium prices soar to new records, platinum deserves to get a closer look from investors.” 

* Up and Down Wall Street: With risk roaring back, “the fear is that the Fed could overdo it” on rate hikes this year, “pushing up short-term interest rates and roiling both the bond and stock markets further.” 

* Streetwise: Columnist Randall Stevenson disputes TSLA’s claim that chief Elon Musk’s new 10-year compensation package aligns his interest with that of shareholders for the long term.

>>> Outgoing Fed Chair Yellen: Asset valuations are generally elevated, but don'

Outgoing Fed Chair Yellen: Asset valuations are generally elevated, but don't want to call what we are seeing a bubble - PBS interview 
- Made it clear I was ready to serve a second term, disappointed I was not reappointed Fed Chair
- Feel great about the economy, things are looking very strong
- In this tight labor market expect to see pace of wage growth edging up
- US financial system is resilient enough to absorb a new shock; banking system is stronger and better capitalized than prior to the financial crisis
- Process of gradual rate hikes is likely to continue

Recode : How to livestream Super Bowl 2018 today

How to livestream Super Bowl 2018 today
Sports! Justin Timberlake! Kitten Bowl! Puppy Bowl!

Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday. The New England Patriots are taking on the Philadelphia Eagles today at 3:30 pm PT / 6:30 pm ET on NBC.
Yeah, you read that right. The Patriots are in the Super Bowl for the eighth time since 2001.
From what little I know about professional football, this promises to be a good game. Why do I know that? Because I follow our sister site SB Nation, which has all the odds, coverage and background on the 52nd Super Bowl. So go there now to talk sports.
You’re here to find out how to livestream it. And we have all the details on that, the halftime show and how to watch the real games: The Puppy Bowl and the Kitten Bowl. Let’s get started.
How to livestream Super Bowl 2018
First, the Super Bowl will obviously be shown on broadcast TV. So if you’re looking for a TV experience, just head over to NBC. Pretty easy.
You’ve also got plenty of streaming options. NBC will stream the game for free via its NBC Sports apps and websites.
If you’re paying to stream live TV via services like YouTube, Hulu, Sling and DirecTVNow, you will also likely be able to stream the game there, though that will depend on the deals they’ve worked out with your local NBA station.
You can also stream the game for free on your phone, via the Yahoo Sports app, no matter what carrier you have. That’s the result of a new Verizon-NFL deal; Verizon subscribers can also stream the game on Verizon’s Go90 app and the NFL’s own mobile app.
If you do want to stream the game, here are some tips from our own Peter Kafka about how to make sure you don’t lose the signal right before a Tom Brady touchdown (or sack).
  • Make sure your broadband is broadband. Sling advises its streaming customers to have an internet connection with speeds of five megabits per second or more — not advertised speeds, real speeds — but you’ll almost certainly want more if you expect a good picture. The FCC now defines broadband as speeds of 25 Mbps or more, and if you don’t have that, chances are you’re probably not the kind of person who would think about streaming the game anyway.
  • Claim your broadband. You probably know this, too, but if you’re going to stream the game, you should be the only one in your place streaming anything, because you don’t want NBC’s bits to compete with anyone else’s bits. Tell your kids they’ll have to watch Netflix before or after the game. Ask your bored friends who came over to watch the game to refrain from using bandwidth-hogging apps like Snapchat or Instagram — kick them off your Wi-Fi if they insist on staying online.
  • Think about ditching your Wi-Fi. Moving the stream from your wireless router to your Apple TV creates another way to lose data. “For all the times that people complain about streaming services, so many times it’s about the Wi-Fi in their home,” said streaming TV analyst Dan Rayburn. He suggests solving that by simply plugging your streaming box directly into your router with an ethernet cable.
  • Fix your Wi-Fi. If you insist on going cordless, you can at least try to improve your signal. This Wi-Fi guide from Comcast has all sorts of advice you would normally never follow, like sticking your router in the middle of a room in the middle of your house. But! You might think about it for a few hours on Sunday.
Convince your neighbors to keep the cord. No matter how much broadband you pay for, you’re ultimately going to end up sharing capacity with your neighbors, whether you like it or not — that’s why you may often see speeds drop in the evening, when more of you are likely to be streaming Netflix or YouTube. So if you live around a lot of other people who are trying to stream stuff on Sunday, you may have a harder time watching the game.
Not here for the football but rather for the halftime show? I hear you. This year, Justin Timberlake is taking (back) the stage.

FT : Anatomy of the escalating bond bear market

Anatomy of the escalating bond bear market
With term premia now back to ‘normal’ bonds look better underpinned

The global economy remains in the strong, synchronised upswing that has now been in place for almost two years. The latest Fulcrum nowcasts show no sign of any major slowdown in the global growth rate, which remains around 4.5 per cent, almost a full percentage point above its long term trend. Among the major blocs, the advanced economies are continuing to record growth rates that are, remarkably, 1.7 percentage points above trend, while the emerging markets are hovering around trend. 

The recent surge in global growth is mainly a cyclical demand phenomenon, which has so far had only a moderate impact on long term sustainable growth. Although this implies that excess capacity in the world economy is now being absorbed fairly rapidly, there has been very little, if any, increase in underlying core inflation, which remains stubbornly low in the major advanced economies. Headline inflation has risen slightly, because of rising oil prices, but this will not be of any great concern to the central banks. Nor, in itself, should it be of any great concern to the markets.

Based on incoming economic data, the world economy (and asset markets) are therefore still in a regime that we have named “global expansion”, rather than “global reflation” because core inflation remains so subdued. The mix between real output and inflation in nominal economic activity is still extremely healthy:

Despite the low rates of recorded inflation, the global bond market has responded to the acceleration in output growth with a sharp sell-off, especially at the front end of the curve. For example, in the latest phase of bear flattening starting in early September 2017, the US 2-year yield has risen by about 90 basis points, while the 10 year yield is up by 70 basis points. Why has this happened?


Flatter curves indicate that more central bank rate hikes are now priced into the market in the next few years, though the terminal level of equilibrium short rates (r*) a long way into the future has not risen very much (at least until very recently). The markets are therefore pricing earlier monetary tightening, rather than a greater overall amount of tightening by the time the Fed reaches its final destination for this cycle.

Even though the end point for the Fed still seems fairly well anchored, many commentators are now suggesting that the global bond market has entered into a major bear phase, with the decades-long downtrend in 10 year yields now having been breached. Furthermore, these fears are now clearly starting to wobble the equity markets.

A sustained further bear market in bonds requires, by definition, one or both of the following developments: a continued upward adjustment in the expected path for Fed rate hikes, and/or an increase in the term (or risk) premium on long bonds [1].

The following graph shows how these two variables have behaved in the US 10 year nominal bond market since 2010. 



The key point is that the expected path for Fed short rates (in published forecasts by economists, not in the forward curve in the bond market itself) has barely changed in the past 12 months. The FOMC has raised rates broadly as anticipated, and has shifted its forward guidance about future rate hikes only very slightly in a hawkish direction. Therefore, the bond sell-off has occurred because the term premium has increased, not because the consensus view about Fed policy has changed.

Since mid 2016, the term premium has risen by around 100 basis points, which is roughly the same as the increase (albeit over a shorter period) in the taper tantrum of 2013. The premium is now as high as it has been at any time since the Great Financial Crash. It can be argued that the end of global quantitative easing is now fully priced into the term premium at these levels.

We can investigate the anatomy of the recent bear market further by splitting the nominal yield graph shown above into its real and inflation components. Together, the real components and the inflation components add up to the nominal yield, the nominal term premium and the path for nominal expected short rates respectively. Here are the real components of the graph


And here are the inflation components:


Since the overall bear market in US bonds started in mid 2016, the 10 year yield has risen by 130 basis points, from 1.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Most of this increase has been due to a rise in the nominal risk premium, and by far the majority of the increase in the nominal risk premium has come from the inflation component, with the real component rising only slightly. 

What has happened, therefore, is that the tail risk of deflation that was being priced into bonds in early 2016 has gradually disappeared, and the inflation risk premium has returned to a fairly normal level around zero. All this has happened while the core inflation rate, and the expected path for future inflation, has barely increased at all. The recovery in real output growth (and commodity prices) seems to have reduced the market’s fear of future deflation, and that is what has driven the bear market in bonds.

So how could this get worse, and develop into an escalating bond bear market, on top of what has happened already?

The expected forward path for short rates could be accelerated because the Fed becomes more hawkish, more rapidly, than previously expected. This is unlikely, unless incoming inflation data rise markedly.
The terminal interest rate expected for the tightening cycle could increase, implying that the market has changed its estimate of the equilibrium interest rate, r*. This would require an upward shift in the market’s assessment of long term sustainable output growth, which has not happened yet.
The term premium on the long bond could rise further, as investors demand more compensation for holding duration risk in the market. A possible cause of higher risk premia could be the elevated US budget deficit at a time of full employment and the planned drop in the Fed’s bond holdings.
In summary, the bond bear market has so far been due to a normalisation of bond term premia, especially the inflation risk premium. With term premia now back to “normal”, bonds look better underpinned than in the recent past. If the bond bear market is to be extended much further on a sustainable basis, something new needs to go wrong in the global economy.

FT : Five Star gains as Italy’s southern voters lose faith

Five Star gains as Italy’s southern voters lose faith
Anti-establishment feeling is strong in region yet to benefit from eurozone’s recovery

Politically Calabria and the rest of Italy’s south — known as the Mezzogiorno — is unpredictable terrain. The votes here could swing the March 4 election, a contest that might have profound consequences for the EU, particularly if it plunges the country into political instability or delivers a populist-led government.

At the moment the centre-right coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi, the media mogul and former prime minister, leads with the support of about 36 per cent of Italians. Its main bastion of support is the prosperous North, owing to its alliance with the anti-euro, anti-immigrant Northern League. 

But if this coalition is to gain an absolute majority it will have to sweep the South, which has emerged in recent years as a hotbed of support for Five Star. An analysis of voting districts by Salvatore Vassallo, a professor at the University of Bologna, published in La Repubblica on Thursday said the election race in Sicily, Puglia, Basilicata and Calabria was “wide open” — and Crotone specifically was a “toss-up”. 


“It will come down to the last vote. I would be willing to bet on that,” says Ugo Pugliese, the mayor of Crotone, who ran as an independent and is not campaigning for any side. “It will be a big battleground.”

The pro-EU, reformist centre-left Democratic party, which leads Italy’s government, is also in charge in Calabria. But it is under pressure. Marco Minniti, the interior minister and the highest profile Calabrian politician, is not campaigning heavily in the region. He has instead been dispatched to defend an electoral stronghold in central Italy.

Antonio Costabile, a professor of political sociology at the University of Calabria, says being in office used to be a big advantage for politicians in the south. The economy depended heavily on public spending and parties benefited from their powers of patronage.

Today’s tighter budgets have eroded the advantages of being a “political godfather”, Mr Costabile says. “Now there’s just a lot of discontent,” he says. “We are not expecting a good result for the PD.”


Some of Crotone’s 60,000 people recall its prosperity, which was driven mainly by the steel industry. “There were thousands of workers, there were flourishing fisheries and agriculture,” says Giovanni Cimini, owner of a restaurant. “Then the factories disappeared.” 

As the city slid into depression, connections to the rest of Italy withered. Recently, the local airport closed, ending the few daily low-cost flights that were a lifeline for tourism. The train station is also shut. Heavy traffic clogs the two-lane road along the coast and is notoriously dangerous.

Those who can, especially the young, emigrate. “We are reliving the 1960s when people would move north to find work,” says Father Rino Le Pera, a priest who runs a Catholic charity in the city. “But at that time people would go to build something and return. Now they leave never to come back”. 

Such discontent is most likely to benefit Five Star, which rails against the political class and has proposed income support for the poorest families to mitigate the region’s economic failure.

“Everything that is not Five Star is thievery. There is zero confidence in the political class,” says Mara Conga, 45, who works at a rental car office on the seafront. “The state doesn’t work, it doesn’t help the needy, it is completely absent. That’s why we need change.” 

Disgust with the political establishment will only have deepened this month after 169 people — including the president of Crotone province — were arrested for association with the ‘Ndrangheta, the region ruthless mafia. Another string of arrests last year was related to corruption at a large government-funded migrant centre close to Crotone


But Mr Berlusconi’s centre-right remains a powerful contender. His coalition narrowly won Sicily’s regional election in November, seen as a precursor to the national vote.

Mr Pugliese, the mayor, says that while Five Star is winning over the former working class, the centre-right is likely to prevail among the discontented middle class.

He tries to be optimistic, saying a clean-up of old industrial sites and a focus on cultural tourism related to Crotone’s storied past could bring back jobs. But many of his citizens are losing hope.

“Italy is what it is — and things are bad. Calabria is in last place in Italy, and Crotone is in last place in Calabria, so we’re really on the ropes,” says Mr Mano. As for Europe? “It’s so distant from us, it’s not even an issue. We don’t even feel like we’re in Italy.”

The Verge : A successful SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch gives NASA new options

A successful SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch gives NASA new options

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket will launch for the first time next week. It might be the company’s most anticipated mission yet, and it could open up a new line of business — one that might interest NASA.

The new rocket will be the most powerful in the world, which means it could launch heavier and more complex cargo to space. Once the vehicle becomes operational, SpaceX could soon start launching what the company’s Falcon 9 can’t: heavier national security satellites, large habitats and telescopes, or even humans to deep space.

THE NEW ROCKET WILL BE THE MOST POWERFUL IN THE WORLD
The Falcon Heavy’s specs are impressive. The three-core rocket boasts 27 engines, more than any other working rocket has used before. Together, these engines provide more than 5 million pounds of thrust at liftoff, allowing the vehicle to put more than 140,000 pounds of cargo into lower Earth orbit. That’s more than twice the capability of any rocket currently on the market. And it will do almost as much as NASA’s new huge rocket at a fraction of the price.

Thanks to a directive from the Trump administration, NASA is now focused on returning humans to the Moon. The space agency has been developing its own massive rocket, the Space Launch System, which could be used for lunar missions. When complete, the SLS will be even more powerful than the Falcon Heavy. However, the giant NASA rocket has its share of problems: it’s still years from making its first flight, and won’t carry people until 2022 at the earliest. Plus, early estimates show that the SLS may cost more than 10 times as much to fly than the Falcon Heavy. Incorporating a cheaper rocket may make human Moon missions more affordable.

The SLS has strong support from key members of Congress, so NASA will likely continue to develop it. But once the Falcon Heavy starts flying regularly, the cheap, powerful rocket may be hard for NASA to ignore. “This could make the whole Trump administration initiative to go back to the Moon economically affordable,” Charles Miller, president of space consulting firm NexGen Space LLC and a former member of the Trump administration’s NASA transition team, tells The Verge.

SpaceX is known for its budget pricing. One flight of the company’s Falcon 9 starts at just $62 million. That’s a fraction of the cost ULA’s comparable Atlas V rocket, flights of which start at $109 million. And the Falcon Heavy will be cheap, too, starting at around $90 million each flight. SpaceX has also worked to bring down rocket costs even more by designing them to be partially reusable. SpaceX has figured out how to land its first stage boosters back on Earth, in order to fly them again, saving on manufacturing. The Falcon Heavy will be no different. All three of the rocket’s cores will attempt to land on Earth after each flight; the outer cores will head to land while the center core will land on a SpaceX drone ship in the ocean.

ONE IMPORTANT POTENTIAL CUSTOMER DOES TAKE A LOT OF HEAVY CARGO TO SPACE: NASA
Despite its power and price tag, the Falcon Heavy has just two more launches planned for 2018, with another set for next year. (SpaceX also claims the Falcon Heavy will send two tourists around the Moon at some point.) But that’s about it. Some customers bailed when the Falcon Heavy got stuck in development, and it’s possible that others may just want to see the rocket in action first before flying on it. Or maybe there aren’t that many big things to put on it. The Falcon Heavy could soon be certified to fly larger national security satellites that the Falcon 9 can’t lift — but commercial satellite operators may not need that much power right now. No one has requested the Falcon Heavy to lift more than 45,000 pounds, SpaceX president and COO Gwynne Shotwell told Aviation Week.

But one important potential customer does take a lot of heavy cargo to space: NASA. And the agency’s own rocket is pricey. Not only is the Space Launch System toast after each flight, it’s also racked up a big price tag in development costs: nearly $19 billion over the last decade. NASA estimates that one flight of the SLS will cost about $1 billion, and it will only launch once or twice a year. “When you’re talking about the differences in budgets, it’s phenomenal how less expensive Falcon Heavy is compared to a government rocket like SLS,” Laura Forczyk, a space consultant and owner of space research and consulting firm Astralytical, tells The Verge.


An artistic rendering of NASA’s Space Launch System. Image: NASA
NASA is expected to do big things, but with flat budgets for the next five years, according to Space News. And the agency is going to need more than just a transport system. It’s going to need landers, habitats, and more to keep people alive on the Moon. There are even plans to build a new space station around the Moon called the Deep Space Gateway, where astronauts can live and train for missions. There’s no extra cash for these projects, and NASA needs to free up money somehow to make all this happen. The administration may want to do that by ending funding for the International Space Station, but using cheaper rockets could also do the trick.

NASA NEEDS TO FREE UP MONEY SOMEHOW TO MAKE ITS LUNAR PLANS HAPPEN
The SLS will be able to lift more massive pieces than the Falcon Heavy can; a final version of the rocket will be able to carry more than 280,000 pounds to lower Earth orbit (about as much as the Saturn V rocket that took humans to the Moon). The SLS is also closely guarded by members of Congress, specifically those who represent Alabama, the state where much of the rocket is being made. But the SLS’s first flights keep being delayed, jeopardizing the rocket’s future. Though Falcon Heavy has had its share of delays, the rocket has at least been built and is ready to fly. “Right now, SLS and Orion are very popular in NASA and government circles, but if the Falcon Heavy and some other commercial heavy lift rockets come into play, what will that mean down the road if SLS is still not operational five, 10 years from now?” says Forczyk.

It’s unlikely that the Falcon Heavy will replace the NASA rocket outright. But the Falcon Heavy could still perform other tasks for NASA, such as sending up pieces of the Deep Space Gateway or sending cargo to the lunar surface. Or it could act like a gas delivery service, sending massive amounts of propellant into orbit to fuel up spacecraft for long journeys to deep space. Plus, SpaceX claims the rocket is at least capable of sending people around the Moon, so why not put them on the surface, too?


The Falcon Heavy’s first payload: Elon Musk’s Tesla roadster. Image: SpaceX
NASA already relies on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 to send cargo to the International Space Station, and soon the company will be sending astronauts there, too. NASA could use the Falcon Heavy in similar ways. Using the Falcon Heavy and Falcon 9 together, NASA could go back to the Moon for just $10 billion over a five- to seven-year period, according to a report from Miller of NexGen Space. (NASA’s yearly budget is $19 billion.) “Having affordable commercial heavy-lift is the only thing keeping NASA from going back to the Moon and on to Mars,” says Miller. “NASA has been trying this for over a decade, but it’s been unaffordable. If you can get a heavy lift launch vehicle for under $100 million it changes everything.”

Of course, the government decides whether NASA can use the Falcon Heavy. And there’s always the possibility that next week’s launch goes wrong. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has expressed concern that the vehicle won’t make it to orbit on its first launch. If that happens, SpaceX will need to fly the Falcon Heavy a few more times until it’s deemed ready for commercial flight.

But if it does fly well, SpaceX will send a powerful message to the spaceflight world — and NASA may like what it sees.

>>> Liberty Global sale talks with Vodafone focus on Germany, eastern Europe

Liberty Global sale talks with Vodafone focus on Germany, eastern Europe

Negotiations between Liberty Global [Nasdaq:LBTYA] and Vodafone [LON:VOD] are centred on the sale of cable assets Liberty owns in Germany and assets in eastern Europe, the Financial Times reported. Sources briefed on discussions said the talks are at an early stage.
The assets understood to be under discussion have an approximately EUR 14bn enterprise value, not taking into account any control premium, the item reported, citing figures from Olivetree Securities analysts.
Vodafone confirmed yesterday, 2 February, that it was discussing a potential deal with Liberty Global to acquire unspecified overlapping assets in continental Europe.
The original report appeared in the Financial Times, page 1