>>> What to look at today - 16th of February 2018

Japanese stocks extended a rally in global equities even as the yen rose to its strongest in 15 months, with trading muted due to holiday closures across Asia. The yield on 10-year Treasuries hovered near 2.9 percent and the dollar traded lower against all major currencies. Australian shares closed slightly lower, but with most major markets across Asia Pacific shut for Lunar New Year holidays, volumes in the region were light. The S&P 500 topped 2,700 Thursday as U.S. equities capped their best five-day run since 2011. Japan’s currency pushed past 106 yen per dollar for the first time since November 2016 on a day when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominatedHaruhiko Kuroda to lead the Bank of Japan for another five-year term. The euro rose to its strongest against the greenback in over three years.

Nikkei +1.19% Hang Seng CSI Shanghai Shenzen All closed Chinese New YEar

Eur$ 1.2533 CNH 6.2794 CNY 6.3415 JPY 105.89 GBP 1.4124 CHF 0.9198 RUB 56.3822

S&P +0.17% EuroStoxx +0.59% FTSE +0.46% Dax +0.57% SMI +0.745


Macro :
- Buy the Dip, That Old Wall Street Favorite, Comes Under Scrutiny
- Euro Should Replace Yen as the True Haven Currency: Macro View
- *BITCOIN MAY HIT NEW HIGH BY JULY, FUNDSTRAT’S TOM LEE SAYS

Keep an eye on :
- ABLX BB : Ablynx Says Sanofi to License Two Product Candidates for EU13m
- AF FP : Air France FY Op. Income Rises 42%; Co. Sees 1Q Unit Rev. Growth
- AF FP : Air France-KLM CFO Plays Down Prospects of Alitalia Investment
- ALV GY : *ALLIANZ 4Q OP. PROFIT IN LINE; DIVIDEND TO INCREASE TO EU8/SHR
- ALV GY : Allianz Proposes Div. Raise to EU8; 4Q Op. Profit Meets Ests
- ARW US : Arrowhead Pharma Treatment Granted Orphan Drug Status by FDA
- CLNX SM : Cellnex Full Year Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
- CLX SS : CLX Communications Fourth Quarter Net Sales SEK909.3 Mln
- CRDA LN : Croda Makes Recommended 10.57p/Share Cash Offer for Plant Impact
- CSVG LN : CVS Group First Half Revenue GBP157.8 Mln
- BN FP : Danone FY LFL Sales Growth Meets Estimates, Raises Dividend
- EDF FP : EDF FY Ebitda Falls 16%; Co. Confirms 2018 Profit Target
- ENI IM : Eni Fourth Quarter Adjusted Net Beats Highest Estimate
- ETL FP : Eutelsat Second Quarter Revenue EU347.4 Mln
- EO FP : Faurecia Targets at Least 7% Sales Growth in 2018
- FCX US : Freeport-McMoran Holder Icahn Cuts Stake to About 4.14%
- GATE SW : Gategroup in 6-Year Pact to Provide Dining on Virgin Australia
- HMB SS : H&M Investors Are Worried Management Is Overlooking the Obvious
- HMS SS : HMS Networks Fourth Quarter Net Sales Miss Lowest Estimate
- ICPT US : Intercept Rallies as Ocaliva Expected to Recover, Cowen Says
- LUPE SS : Lundin Mining Fourth Quarter Revenue 1.1% Above Estimates
- NHY NO : Norsk Hydro 4Q Underlying Ebit Misses Estimates, Revenue Beats
- PRS SM : Spain’s Prisa Raised EU563.2m in Capital Increase
- RNO FP : Renault FY Op. Income Rises 16%; Co. Sees 2018 Sales Growth
- ROG SW : Roche’s Flatiron Health Acquisition Is Good News for FMI: Cowen
- SAABB SS : Saab Fourth Quarter Operating Profit Misses Lowest Estimate
- SDRL NO : Seadrill Is Said Near Restructuring Deal With Bondholders: Rtrs
- SGRO LN : Segro Full Year Adjusted EPS 19.9p
- SKG GY : Koenig & Bauer With Strong Year-End Finish, Lampe Raises to Buy
- TFI FP : TF1 Full Year Revenue EU2.12 Bln
- VIV FP : Vivendi Has No Plan Yet For UMG IPO, Keeps That Option: CEO
- VPK NA : Vopak Full Year Adjusted Ebitda Down 7% to EU763.2 Mln (1)
- VOW3 GY : Audi CEO Stadler Is Said To Be Replaced in April, Bild Reports

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 16th of February 2018

>>> Up
* Airbus Upgraded to Hold at LBBW; PT 95 Euros
* Airbus Upgraded to Hold at Independent Research; PT 92 Euros
* Carrefour Upgraded to Buy at UBS; PT 24 Euros
* Credit Suisse Upgraded to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 20 Francs
* Easyvista Upgraded to Buy at Euroland Corporate; PT 41 Euros
* Encana Upgraded to Buy at SocGen
* Enel Upgraded to Buy at LBBW; Price Target 5.60 Euros
* Fortis Inc Upgraded to Sector Outperform at CIBC
* Hamburger Hafen Upgraded to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 24 Euros
* Inditex Upgraded to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 30.50 Euros
* Kemper Upgraded to Outperform at William Blair
* Koenig & Bauer Upgraded to Buy at Bankhaus Lampe
* Restaurant Group Upgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 2.65 Pounds
* Shire Upgraded to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 37 Pounds
* Zurich Ins. Upgraded to Hold at Bankhaus Lampe

>>> Down
* Clariant Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT 22.50 Francs
* Nordic Semiconductor Cut to Sell at SpareBank; PT 38 Kroner
* Tarkett Downgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
* Voestalpine Downgraded to Hold at Baader-Helvea; PT 52 Euros

>>> Initiation
* Delivery Hero Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 43.35 Euros
* Evraz Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 5.20 Pounds
* LSE Reinstated at SocGen With Buy; PT 46.50 Pounds
* Takeaway Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 59.10 Euros

>>> Call
>> Stock
* Fonciere des Regions Maintained Underweight at JPMorgan

>>> Asian Update

Asia Market Update: Nikkei 225 tracks strength in the US amid various holiday-related market closures: US Dollar Index hits lowest since late 2014

***Headlines/Economic Data***
General Trend:
- China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam are all closed for holidays; There is a US holiday on Monday, Feb 19th
- China equity futures gain in Singapore
- Japan’s government confirms Kuroda to be nominated for another term as BoJ Governor; BoJ Exec Dir Amamiya (‘Mr BoJ’) and noted academic/reflationist Wakatabe nominated as Deputy Govs
- Japanese sold net of ¥973.2B in foreign bonds in week ended Feb 16th
- RBA Gov Lowe reiterates recent interest rate guidance; said Australia sovereign credit downgrade would be ‘political event’
- US dollar trades generally weaker: EUR/USD hits highest level since Dec 2014, while the US Dollar Index hits the lowest level since that date.

Australia/New Zealand
-ASX opened+0.3%: closed -0.1%
- ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index -0.7%, Resources -0.6%, Financials -0.2%
-(AU) RBA Gov Lowe: Labor market is noticeably stronger than RBA expected; reiterates more likely that next interest rate move will be rate hike
-(AU) RBA Assistant Gov Ellis: Large degree of uncertainty around full employment est
-(AU) Australia sells A$400M v A$400M indicated in Dec 2021 Bonds, avg yield 2.2960% v 2.0730% prior, bid to cover: 5.03x v 8.54x prior
- (NZ) New Zealand Jan Non Resident Bond Holdings: 60.0% v 61.1%prior

China/Hong Kong
- Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are closed for holiday
- China conglomerate HNA Group said to sell office building located in midtown Manhattan (1180 Sixth Ave) for more than $300M - US press
- US SEC blocks the sale of the Chicago Stock Exchange (CHX) to a group led by China investors (Chongqing Casin Enterprise Group)

Japan
- Nikkei 225 opened +0.4%: closed +1.2%
- TOPIX Iron & Steel Index +1.5%, Electric Appliances +1.4%
- Automakers trade generally higher: Toyota and Honda gain
- Bridgestone [5108.JP] rises over 1% ahead of FY earnings
- (JP) BoJ Gov Kuroda: Reiterates domestic economy expanding moderately, but price growth remains low; reiterates must maintain powerful easing for time being; Japan economy is 'already NOT in a state of deflation'
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Reiterates sudden FX moves have big effects on economy, watching foreign exchange moves 'carefully'

Korea
-Kospi closed for holiday
-(KR) South Korea Pres Moon reportedly could visit North Korea if North Korean stance changes - Russian press

North America
-US equity markets ended higher: Dow +1.2%, S&P500 +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.6%, Russell 2000+1%
-S&P 500 Utilities +2.2%, Technology +1.9%
-(US) DEC TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS: -$119.3B V +$33.5B PRIOR; NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS: $27.3B V $57.5B PRIOR
-(US) Senate bipartisan amendment on immigration fails to pass procedural vote
-GE [GE]: Said to have reached agreement to sell part of overseas lighting business to former executive for undisclosed figure -US financial press

Europe
- (UK) UK Govt said to be prepared to set out its vision for financial services in the post Brexit environment - financial press
-(DE) Germany EU budget contribution may rise €3.0-3.5B –German Press
-Roche [ROG.CH]: To acquire health IT and services company Flatiron Health for $1.9B
-Vivendi Universal [VIV.FR]: Reports FY adj net €1.31B v €755M, EBITA €987M v €724M, rev €12.4B v €10.8B y/y;Proposed dividend with respect to 2017: €0.45 per share, up 12.5%
-Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE]: Largest shareholder China HNA Group said to cut stake to 8.8% vs 9.2% prior - FT
Looking Ahead: UK Jan Retail Sales due for release


***Levels as of01:00ET***
- Equity Futures:S&P500 +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.3%, Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 +0.2%
- EUR 1.2495-1.2556 ;JPY 105.54-106.37; AUD 0.7932-0.7972 ;NZD 0.7389-0.7428
- Feb Gold +0.5% at $1,361.80/oz;Feb Crude Oil +0.5% at $61.66/brl; Mar Copper +0.3% at $3.256/lb

>>> After Hours Summary: COHU -17%, ANET -14%, PI -12%, FLS -7%, MD


After Hours Summary: COHU -17%, ANET -14%, PI -12%, FLS -7%, MDRX -6%, SHAK -5%, MULE +4.5%, CBS +1% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidanceBL +6.1% (ticking higher), AIRG +6% (light volume), MULE +4.5%, SNBR +4.1%, CLD +2.8%, CRAY +2.5%, SSNC +1.8% (ticking higher), GLOB +1.6%, AXDX +1.4%, STAG +1.2%, CBS +0.9%,

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: SNCR +26.3% (announces closing of convertible preferred stock investment from Siris Capital Group's Silver Private Holdings; says continues to maintain a strong cash balance), CDLX +17.5% (recent IPO extending this week's move higher), TNDM +5% (enters into a distribution agreement with Rubin Medical to commercialize Tandem's t:slim X2 Insulin Pump, insulin cartridges, and t:lock family of Infusion Sets in Sweden, Norway and Denmark), IRM +3.6% (ahead of earnings), JACK +2.3% (Barry Rosenstein's Jana Partners discloses increased and active stake), BBT +2.1% (still checking - saw late pickup in volume), TPC +2% (continues to climb higher in after hours after confirming the Port Authority of New York/New Jersey approved the award of fixed-price contract valued at approximately $1.41 bln to JV), ICHR +1.4% (announces $50 million share repurchase program), FOLD +1.1% (prices 19,354,839 share common stock offering at $15.50 per share), CAR +1% (SRS Investment Management nominates five Directors for Board), ECA +0.6% (was upgraded to Buy at Societe Generale after the close)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: COHU -17%, ANET -14.3%, PI -12.1%, SCKT -8.8%, PXLW -7.5%, LOGM -7.3% (also to sell Xively business to Google), FLS -6.6%, MDRX -6%, SHAK -5.1%,  CYTK -3.5%, WATT -3.2%, CUBE -2.7% (light volume)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: NNDM -31.6% (announces proposed public offering of American Depositary Shares), PCRX -14.1% (FDA Anesthetic and Analgesic Drug Products Advisory Committee did not reach a unanimous decision on the efficacy and safety of the use of EXPAREL as a nerve block to produce regional analgesia), IO -11.3% (to offer common stock and warrants in underwritten public offering), DCIX -7.5% (still checking - may be related to Equity Incentive Plan amendment - increasing share amount issuable by 550k), INST -5.3% (commenced a registered underwritten public offering of 2.3 mln shares of common stock), DM -5.3% and ETE -1.8% (attributed to block trade pricing)

>>> US Close Dow +1.23% S&P +1.21% Nasdaq +1.58% Russell +0.99%


Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Crosses 50-Day MA as Stocks Climb for Fifth Consecutive Session

Stocks cruised to their fifth consecutive victory on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 above its 50-day simple moving average (2722.93) for the first time since last week's big sell off. The S&P 500 finished with a gain of 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively.

After a failed attempt to crack its 50-day simple moving average at the opening bell, the S&P 500 finally managed to break through in the early afternoon and continued climbing from there. The benchmark index approached the key technical level from the other side shortly before the closing bell, but, this time, it proved to be a level of support. 

The major averages finished Thursday at their best marks of the day. At their lows, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow were down around 0.3% apiece.

Investors received a large batch of economic data on Thursday, highlighted by the Producer Price Index for January. The PPI reading came in as expected, showing a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, while the core PPI reading, which excludes food and energy, rose more than expected, jumping 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%). The key takeaway from the report is that producer prices are rising, which will feed the Treasury market's concerns about a pass through to consumers.

U.S. Treasuries settled Thursday mostly higher, pulling the yield on the benchmark 10-yr Treasury note down from a four-year high; the 10-yr yield slipped two basis points to 2.89%. The 10-yr yield traded at around 2.94% in pre-market action, but began losing ground even before the release of the aforementioned economic data. Meanwhile, the 2-yr yield finished higher by one basis point at 2.18%, which is its highest level in nearly a decade.

On Wall Street, 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory with technology (+1.9%), industrials (+1.5%), consumer staples (+1.6%), utilities (+2.1%), and telecom services (+1.4%) leading the charge. The energy sector (-0.4%) was the lone laggard, even though WTI crude futures climbed 1.3% to $61.39 per barrel.

Within the tech space, Cisco Systems (CSCO 44.08, +1.99) rallied 4.7% to its best level in nearly 20 years after reporting better-than-expected profits for the previous quarter and raising its earnings and revenue guidance for the current quarter. Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL 172.99, +5.62) climbed 3.4%, crossing its 50-day simple moving average for the first time in three weeks.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies, returned to the three-year low it hit earlier this month, dropping 0.5% to 88.51. The greenback lost 0.4% against the euro (1.2497), 0.7% against the British pound (1.4091), and 0.8% against the Japanese yen (106.16).

Reviewing Thursday's big batch of economic data, which included the Producer Price Index for January, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January, weekly Initial Claims, the Empire Manufacturing Survey for February, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for February, and the NAHB Housing Market Index for February:

  • Producer prices rose 0.4% in January (consensus +0.4%) and core producer prices increased 0.4% (consensus +0.2%). Year-over-year, producer prices are up 2.7% and core producer prices have risen 2.2%.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that producer prices are rising, which will feed the Treasury market's concerns about a pass through to consumers.
  • Industrial Production decreased 0.1% in January (consensus +0.2%), while the December reading was revised to +0.4% (from +0.9%). Capacity Utilization ticked down to 77.5% (consensus 78.0%) from a revised reading of 77.7% in December (from 77.9%).
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the downturn was driven entirely by mining output (-1.0%), although it is notable that manufacturing output was unchanged for the second consecutive month.
  • The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 230,000, while the consensus expected a reading of 227,000. Today's tally was above the revised prior week count of 223,000 (from 221,000). As for continuing claims, they rose to 1.942 million from a revised count of 1.927 million (from 1.923 million).
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial claims is a reflection of a tight labor market and a period of increased demand when employers are reluctant to cut staff.
  • The Empire Manufacturing Survey for February declined to 13.1 (consensus 19.0) from the prior month's unrevised reading of 17.7.
    • Manufacturing activity in the New York Fed region is still in expansion mode, but the key takeaway is that the prices paid index is at its highest level in nearly six years.
  • The Philadelphia Fed Survey for February increased to 25.8 (consensus 22.0) from an unrevised 22.2 in January.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region has accelerated, with cost pressures being reported as more widespread.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for February came in at 72 (consensus 73), unchanged from January.

On Friday, investors will receive another big batch of data, including Housing Starts (consensus 1240K) and Building Permits (consensus 1300K) for January, Import and Export Prices for January, and the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February (consensus 95.5). The first four pieces of data will be released at 8:30 AM ET, while the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will cross the wires at 10:00 AM ET.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +5.1% YTD
  • S&P 500: +2.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +0.1% YTD