(BofA-ML) The Flow Show : Equities: record $43.3bn (record $43.9bn ETF inflows,

Talking Points
* Wall Street’s Wall of Money: record week of $43.3bn equity inflows; more humble $2.4bn into bonds
* Raging Bull: equities annualizing blockbuster $717bn inflows, first time equity flows outpacing bonds since 2013
* Silicon Mountain: 2018 equity inflows YTD led by tech ($9.8bn – Chart 1) & financials ($7.3bn), by region EM equities ($41bn) & Japan ($31bn)
* Record Flow of Nothing: yet chart-topping inflows not coinciding with headline returns...check out $25tn NYSE index (NYA Index) down YTD
* Credit Creaking: clear negative inflection point in HY flows; broader “yield trade” (IG+HY+EM) inflows & returns peaking (Chart 3)…headwind for equity returns
* Bull not Bear: sentiment remains bullish despite tick lower in BofAML Bull & Bear
Indicator 6.8 to 6.5 on accelerating EM debt/ HY corp outflows & placid equity returns
* Cracks in the Wall: flows indicate clients positioned for higher EPS, higher short rates, higher bond yields, lower US dollar; Treasuries & bunds hinting at “growth scare” makes

* stocks vulnerable; LIBOR leading to tighter financial conditions, higher US dollar required to ding tech & EM

>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: record $43.3bn (record $43.9bn ETF inflows, $0.6bn mutual fund outflows)
- Bonds: small inflows ($2.4bn)
- Precious metals: small inflows ($0.2bn)

>>> Equity Flows
- US: record inflows ($34.6bn)
- Japan: inflows for 15 straight weeks, first time since 2013 ($2.9bn)
- Europe: modest outflows ($1.3bn)
- EM: modest inflows ($2.7bn)
- By style: 4th highest inflows into US large cap ($22.0bn), record into US growth ($5.8bn), US small cap ($5.4bn), US value ($4.1bn)
- By sector: inflows into tech ($2.6bn, record), financials ($1.6bn), materials ($0.3bn), healthcare ($0.1bn), consumer ($0.03bn); outflows real estate ($0.03bn), energy ($0.3bn), utilities ($0.2bn)

>>> Fixed Income Flows
- IG bond fund inflows 63 of past 64 weeks ($1.3bn)
- HY bond outflows for 9 weeks, longest streak since 2007 ($0.9bn)
- Small EM debt outflows ($0.7bn)
- Small muni fund inflows ($0.2bn)
- Govt/Tsy inflows for past 8 weeks, first time since Feb’16 ($0.3bn)
- TIPS inflows 20 of past 21 weeks ($1.0bn)
- Largest bank loan fund inflows in 46 weeks ($0.8bn)

>>> Closing Market Summary: Wall Street Tumbles Amid Flurry of Head


Closing Market Summary: Wall Street Tumbles Amid Flurry of Headlines

Stocks tumbled on Thursday as a slew of leery headlines left buyers on the sidelines. The S&P 500 lost 2.5%, dropping into negative territory for the year (-1.1%) and extending its week-to-date decline to 3.9%, while the Nasdaq and the Dow tumbled 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively.

There was little doubt as to where the market was headed at Thursday's opening bell, as equity futures were down big in overnight trading. There wasn't a particular catalyst for the negative disposition, but disappointing PMI readings in the eurozone and Japan, an unsatisfying apology from Facebook's (FB 164.89, -4.50) CEO Mark Zuckerberg regarding the Cambridge Analytica data breach, and Wednesday's rate hike from the Fed didn't exactly bode well for investor sentiment.

The biggest headline catalyst, however, was President Trump's decision to impose tariffs of up to $60 billion on Chinese imports; Mr. Trump officially signed a presidential memorandum on Thursday afternoon. However, the decision wasn't a surprise -- Reuters first reported the president's desire to punish China for intellectual property theft via tariffs last week -- and actually had a silver lining considering the tariffs will only be implemented after a consultation period. Still, the duties do give new energy to the trade war debate.

Selling picked up notably in the final hour of the session, with the S&P 500 nearly doubling its earlier loss. The financial sector led the retreat, dropping 3.7%, as Treasury yields tumbled across the curve; the benchmark 10-yr yield declined eight basis points to 2.83%, while the 2-yr yield slid three basis points to 2.28%. The industrial sector (-3.3%) also showed notable weakness, while most of the remaining groups finished with losses of more than 2.0%.

The most influential sector, information technology, declined 2.7% -- a discouraging sign for investors who have looked to the sector for leadership; the tech group led last year's rally and is still the top-performing sector of 2018 despite Thursday's slide, up 4.3% year to date. Accenture (ACN 150.23, -11.80) was the tech sector's worst-performing component on Thursday, tumbling 7.3%, despite beating earnings and revenue estimates for its fiscal second quarter and raising its yearly guidance.

In other corporate news, AbbVie (ABBV 98.10, -14.35) shares dropped 12.8% after the drugmaker provided a disappointing update on its experimental cancer drug Rova-T, saying data from a phase two trial was not strong enough to justify seeking accelerated approval. The health care sector lost 2.9%.

On a positive note, the rate-sensitive utilities sector advanced 0.4%, benefiting from the decline in Treasury yields.

Investors received several pieces of economic data on Thursday morning, including the weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report, the FHFA Housing Price Index for January, and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for February:

  • The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 229,000, while the consensus expected a reading of 225,000. Today's tally was above the unrevised prior week count of 226,000. As for continuing claims, they declined to 1.828 million from a revised count of 1.885 million (from 1.879 million).
    • The key takeaway from this report is that it covered the period in which the survey for the March employment report was taken, so the low level of initial claims will feed estimates for another strong gain in nonfarm payrolls.
  • The FHFA Housing Price Index increased 0.8% in January ( consensus +0.4%), while the December reading was revised to +0.4% from +0.3%.
  • The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in February (consensus +0.5%). The prior month's reading was revised to +0.8% from +1.0%.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the strength among the leading indicators remained widespread, with eight of its ten components making positive contributions.

On Friday, investors will receive just two economic reports -- Durable Goods Orders for February (consensus +1.5%) and New Home Sales for February (consensus 620K) -- which will be released at 8:30 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET, respectively.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +3.8% YTD
  • S&P 500: -1.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -3.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +0.6% YTD

>>> US After Hours Summary: SGH +10%, HOME +7%, NKE +6%, CTAS +2.4% hi


After Hours Summary: SGH +10%, HOME +7%, NKE +6%, CTAS +2.4% higher, while MU -3% lower following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: SGH +9.8%, HOME +7%, NKE +6.3% (also has acquired consumer data analytics firm Zodiac), CTAS +2.4%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: TOPS +42.8% (nano-cap stock determined to effect a 1-for-10 reverse stock split of the Company's issued common shares), PACB +11.1% (prevails in patent eligibility ruling against Oxford Nanopore; trial is scheduled to occur in early 2020), VTVT +4% (completes Phase 1b of Simplici-T1, an adaptive Phase 1b/2 study assessing TTP399 in type 1 diabetes), CXW +4% (still checking), UAA +2% and FL +1.8% (ticking higher following NKE results), CENX +1.1% (after closing ~18% lower on the day)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: MU -3.2%, HTGM -2.6%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: PGNX -17.5% (FDA extends review of the New Drug Application for AZEDRA by three months to July 30, 2018), FLL -9.9% (thinly traded; registers direct offering of up to 4,166,667 shares of common stock for gross proceeds of up to $12.5 mln), LPTX -9.8% (commences an underwritten public offering of its common stock), AKBA -6.7% (proposes $85 mln public offering of common stock), SRNE -2.7% (files for approx 34.2 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders; files for 1,381,345 share offering by holders pursuant to Scilex Pharmace Stock Purchase Agreement), FB -0.6% (continued weakness; COO Sheryl Sandberg appears on CNBC after the bell and mirrors comments made by CEO Mark Zuckerberg last night), AMAT -0.4% and INTC -0.3% (following MU earnings)

>>> Asian Update

Asia Market Update: Asian markets track US declines as Trump and China announce trade actions: Over 4% losses in Japan and Shanghai


***Headlines/Economic Data***
General Trend:
-Steelmakers and exporters in Japan decline, as the government continues to seek tariff exemptions
-Samsung Electronics declines over 2%; issued cautious commentary on OLED and mobile businesses in China
-Tencent declines over 4% amid share placement
-Foreigners continued to sell Japanese equities, weekly data
-10 year US and China bond yields decline in the face of equity weakness, trade concerns
-Japan 10-year JGB yield moves to lowest since Nov 2017
-At the shorter end, Australia 3-month bank bill rate fixed higher
-Japan Feb CPI rises as expected to highest since March 2015; still shy of BoJ price target
-China traded metals move generally lower
-USD/JPY hits 16-month low below ¥105
-Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga thinks US trade measures are likely impacting forex

Australia/New Zealand:
-ASX 200 opened -1.1%; closed -2%
-ASX 200 Resources Index -2.6%, Financials -2.2%

China/Hong Kong
-Shanghai Composite opened -2.8%, Hang Seng opened -3.7%
-Hang Seng Info Tech Index -4.3%, Materials -3.6%, Industrial Goods -3.6%, Consumer Goods -3.4%, Energy -3.4%, Property/Construction -3.1%
-Shanghai Composite Property Sub-index declines over 3%
- (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): Plans reciprocal tariffs on US steel and aluminum products; plans tariffs on $3B in US steel, aluminum, pork and wine imports; To take legal action at WTO
- (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): China does not want a trade war but not afraid of one
- (CN) Brokerage companies in China said to increase risk controls related to share pledges - China Securities Journal
- (CN) China regulator said to place curb on negotiable certificate of deposit (NCD) investments by bond funds - US financial press
- (CN) PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips OMO v CNY10B injected in 7-day reverse repos prior; Net: CNY90B drain v CNY150B drain prior
- (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate at 6.3272 v 6.3167 prior

Japan
-Nikkei 225 opened -1.9%; closed -4.5%
-TOPIX Electric Appliances Index -4.2%, Iron & Steel -3.8%
-Fast Retailing [9983.JP] declines over 5% (has exposure to US and China): expected to report March SSS on April 3rd
- (JP) JAPAN FEB NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.5%E; EX-FRESH FOOD (CORE) Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.0%E (both figures are highest since March 2015
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: US trade move does not warrant 'surge in yen (JPY)'
- (JP) BoJ New Executive Dir Maeda: Not at point where can consider policy exit as BOJ remains distant from price target
- (JP) BoJ Dep Gov Wakatabe: BoJ policy is in the right direction, producing results
- (JP) Exporters in Japan may lose ¥500B if USD/JPY stays at ¥106 - Nikkei

Korea
Kospi opened -2%

Other Asia
- (ID) Indonesia 10-year government bond yield rises over 5bps; Indonesia Finance Ministry official cites trade war concerns
- (SG) Singapore Feb CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.4%e

North America
-US equities ended broadly lower: Dow -2.9%, S&P500 -2.5%, Nasdaq -2.4%, Russell 2000 -2.2%
-S&P500 Financials -3.7%, Industrials -3.3%; Utilities +0.4%
- Micron [MU] declines over 3% in the afterhours amid Q2 results and guidance
-Nike [NKE] rose over 6% in the afterhours after reporting Q3 results and guidance
-(US) Pres Trump announces $50B in tariffs over China intellectual property trade violations (as expected); Tariffs specifics to be published by USTR within 15 days; industry to get 30 day comment period; Identified 1,300 product categories that might be covered by the new tariffs - press
-(US) Trade Rep Lighthizer: EU, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, South Korea will be exempt from trade tariffs; We have told Japan that we want a free trade agreement - Congressional testimony
-(US) John Dowd resigns as Trump's lead attorney as part of Mueller probe – NYT
- (US) Trump Administration National Security Adviser McMaster to resign; to be replaced by Bush Admin official John Bolton
-(US) House passes $1.3T omnibus spending bill (as expected)
- (US) Senate advances $1.3T spending bill; final vote 65 to 32

Europe
-(EU) ECB Draghi said to provide European leaders with upbeat view on economy at EU summit – press
-(EU) S&P affirms ECB rating at AAA; outlook stable
- (EU) EU Summit said to end without conclusion of US tariffs
- (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: economy is going well in all EU member states
- (UK) UK PM May: To stay for second day of EU Summit in order to discuss trade
-Saudi Oil Min Al-Falih: reiterates OPEC/non-OPEC partnership will be maintained into 2019


***Levels as of 01:00ET***
- Hang Seng -3.1%; Shanghai Composite -3.5%; Kospi -2.9%
- Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.7%; Nasdaq100 -1.1%, Dax -0.8%; FTSE100 -0.3%
- EUR 1.2299-1.2342 ; JPY 104.63-105.42; AUD 0.7686-0.7724 ;NZD 0.7202-0.7229
- Feb Gold +0.8% at $1,338/oz; Feb Crude Oil +1% at $64.97/brl; Mar Copper -0.8% at $3.001/lb

FT : Drone technology/DJI: shooting star

Drone technology/DJI: shooting star
Chinese group dominates hobby market, but there are fears it is starting to saturate

In 2014, the inhabitants of Deer Trail, Colorado (population 680), voted against hunting licences permitting them to blast drones from the sky. Freedom-loving gun owners were perhaps the last serious holdouts against the product. The consumer market for drones has taken off, metaphorically as well as literally. DJI, the world’s leading drone manufacturer, is aiming for a $15bn pre-float valuation, according to a Reuters report.

The US army prohibits its personnel from using the Chinese group’s drones. No matter. DJI dominates the hobby market. Its low-cost models have driven out swaths of competition. Remaining makers include Parrot of France.

Analysts at International Data Corporation expect drone sales of $9bn this year. Assume retail makes up half of that and DJI has a market share of roughly 70 per cent. Implied 2018 revenues would then be $3.2bn, 12 per cent more than the figure revealed by Chinese media for last year.

At less than five times revenues, the latest funding round does not imply a crazy multiple. Investors would surely expect a boost if and when the group goes public. Flagship tech company Tencent trades at 16 times revenues. 

One downdraft against a high valuation is the fear the retail market is starting to saturate. Drones could be boys’ toys that end up gathering dust on a garage shelf when their novelty evaporates. Manufacturers are thus betting on commercial applications. Models equipped with computer vision and specialised algorithms for agriculture, infrastructure and other sectors could boost demand and command healthy margins. 

Investing in the group requires faith in the continued dominance of DJI as it builds up such applications. The group should be helped by Chinese government enthusiasm for products that collect and analyse data in the real economy. Given US worries over foreign cyber espionage, the idea of drone hunting might not be so far-fetched after all.

>>> US Gapping down


Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • MIK -10.3%, GIII -6%, MLHR -4.8%, CMC -3.4%, DRI -3%, JKS -2.5%, FIVE -0.9%, ACN -0.6%

Other news:

  • RESN -9.7% (to sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering)
  • CRON -5% (to sell 10.42 mln common shares on 'bought deal' basis at $9.60 per share for gross proceeds of approx $100.0 mln)
  • PLUG -3.6% (announces private offering of $100 mln of convertible senior notes )
  • ARNA -2.7% (prices public offering of 8.5 mln shares of common stock at $41.50 per share)
  • GAIA -2.2% (launches offering of shares of its Class A common stock)
  • NYCB -2% (initiated with Sell ratings at UBS)
  • TWTR -1.6% (likely in sympathy with FB)
  • FB -1.5% (after Mark Zuckerberg released statement shortly before the close related to Cambridge Analytica situation,discusses actions already taken and next steps to address this issue)
  • AVEO -1% (announces the publication of long-term follow-up results from Study 902, where patients were treated with tivozanib (FOTIVDA) as second-line treatment in advanced renal cell carcinoma)

Analyst comments:

  • SIRI -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)
  • TRP -1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo)
  • CNP -0.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill)

>>> US Gapping up


Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • SCON +6.2%, ALTR +3.3%, EGO +1%, LE +0.9%

Other news:

  • OMER +28% (spending bill includes segment allowing company to charge Medicare high prices for its cataract surgery drug Omidria)
  • TTNP +21.5% (executes agreement for acquisition by Molteni of Probuphine in Europe and other select territories; received initial payment of €2.0 mln and will receive potential additional payments totaling up to €4.5 mln )
  • MNGA +13.4% (has made a non-refundable deposit of $1.0 million toward the purchase of Trico Welding Supplies)
  • GERN +7.6% (continued strength)
  • TELL +7.2% (Bechtel has made a $50 million zero coupon preferred equity investment in Tellurian which has an implied Tellurian common share price of $8.16 per share)
  • MGPI +4.5% (will replace Evercore the S&P SmallCap 600)
  • TRHC +3.7% (ticking higher; to join S&P SmallCap 600)

Analyst comments:

  • BWA +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley)