>>> Carrefour to close 227 ex-Dia stores after failing to find buyers (translate

Carrefour to close 227 ex-Dia stores after failing to find buyers (translated)
22 MAY 2018
Listed French supermarkets group Carrefour [EPA:CA] is set to close down 227 stores formerly operating under the Dia brand after having failed to find buyers for it, French daily Les Echos reported. The report cited a spokesperson for the group as confirming the news.
Carrefour announced earlier this year that it was planning to reduce the number of ex-DIA stores by 273. The company said at the time that a plan to search for buyers was launched store by store and that in the absence of buyers, these stores would be closed.
According to the report, the period to look for buyers ends on 4 June.

>>> Europe Pre-Market

ML
PETS - Inline to a touch better than expected. No warning is a positive(161)+2%
ICG - PBT looks about inline. EPS above ests & confident on outlook (1180)+1-2%
BIG YELLOW - FY18 EPRA EPS inline with street at 38.5p/sh. LFL revs +7%(962)u/c
GALLIFORD TRY - Trading statement states that everything is in line (972.5).u/c
SHAFTESBURY - NAV 983p, +3.3% in 1H and portfolio value growth of 3.0% (990)u/c
CBG - Banking div achieved solid loan growth, winterfloods doing well (1591)u/c
MINERS - Copper -0.1%, Iron ore fut -1.7% with BHP OZ -0.88%, RIO OZ -0.54%.-1%
SONOVA - Sales inline, divi better. Outlook for 6-9% EBITDA growth (160.3)..-1%
INMARSAT - Small negative that is losing exclusivity in martime safety (380)-2%
HALFORDS - FY revs & EBITDA better but guidance is weaker than expected(380)-2%
CS
BAE Systems -0.5% CS US A&D team DOWNGRADE the US defence sector
Close Bros M/P All divisions performing well, net inflows loan book
+2.4%
Forterra M/P Board's expectations for the full year remain unchanged
Halfords -5-10% Revs 1.135 cons 1.133, guidance for 19 looks like
Miners -0.5% Copper -0.15%, Brent +0.65%, Iron Ore -1.50%, China
-0.70%
Norsk Hydro -1-2% Brazil Group seeks to suspend Norsk Hydro Bauxite mine
Partners M/P Partners Group/Kedaara Capital to acquire Vishal Mega
Mart
Pets at Home +1% FY revs 834.2mln vs cons 895mln, PTP ahead,
Roche +1% Positive phase III HAVEN 3 study of Hemlibra
Sonova -1% FY Sales 0.5% light, EBITA 2% ahead, div slightly
better
TechnipFMC +1-2% Secured two 'major' contracts in India
Zurich -1% Completed its public share-buyback programm

FT : 'Some of the worst covenants that we’ve ever seen'

A private-equity buyout of an American roofing company earned a dubious distinction this week: it offered “some of the worst covenants” ever seen by Covenant Review (CR), an independent credit research firm that specialises in that area.

The company, called SRS Distribution, changed some of the most controversial covenants before the sale last week. But a few of the offending terms still made it into the $380m offering of unsecured high-yield bonds, CR says. The bonds are subordinated to $1.3bn of term loans and a $400m revolving credit facility that will finance SRS's leveraged secondary tertiary buyout by private-equity firm Leonard Green & Partners.

For the uninitiated, covenants are provisions in debt contracts (bonds and loans) meant to protect lenders' interests, by limiting a borrowers' ability to do things like pay dividends, or take on more debt in times of financial trouble.

Protections for lenders and bondholders have been weakening across markets, though the individual agreements vary. SRS's first proposal was an example of this War On Covenants. The initial terms of the bond contract were extraordinarily weak and written with near-arbitrary levels of complexity, said CR analyst Ross Hallock.

“Maybe it was some sort of anchoring game, starting off with something that was so absurd,” he said.

The deal is no longer the worst Hallock has ever seen, after investors pushed back and got the company to remove three of the seven worst covenants, he said.

But four of those problematic provisions remain in the documents in some form, which we will explore below:

1) Risky commitments

One provision that could have a large impact is the company's “designated commitment” covenant, which was buried in an unusual section of the bond prospectus, Hallock says. The covenant is a bit complex, and probably best described with an example:

Let's say Company D has a $100m line of credit with the bank. At the same time, its bond documents say it isn't allowed to borrow money unless it meets certain requirements: for example, it might be required to keep its debt level lower than 5x its ebitda. Today, Company D has $25m of debt and ebitda of $25m, so it can use the $100m credit facility. But if its ebitda falls at all, it would lose the ability to draw credit.

Under a normal version of this covenant, Company D can designate that $100m as a committed credit facility, which means it can use it even if ebitda declines.

SRS's version is not normal, however.

The difference is what happens after company names the credit facility a “designated commitment”. Normally, Company D wouldn't be able to borrow any more after that -- remember the rule that says debt must be less than 5x ebitda? Under that requirement, the $100m facility would still max out its borrowing capacity.

But if it used SRS's version of the covenant, it would be able to exclude the credit line from the entire 5x requirement. That means it would be able to borrow $100m more. Hallock calls this “absurd”, and continues:

The Company could max out capacity under any Ratio test with designated commitments and then subsequently incur future debt that also maxes out capacity under the same test... The Company could even reserve capacity for one designated commitment and then another and then another, ad infinitum. Investors should demand that the proviso... be deleted.
2) Buyouts on buyouts on buyouts -- what's a bondholder to do?

SRS is issuing all of this debt to fund an LBO from Leonard Green. But because this will be its third private-equity owner in a row, the deal should technically be called a “tertiary buyout”. And Hallock said there is a “very unusual, obscure” provision that could bite bondholders if SRS went through a quaternary buyout.

Traditionally, a company's bondholders have some measure of protection in a debt-fueled transaction like an LBO. Specifically, bond covenants usually prevent the company from making debt-funded payments to equity holders without either buying back the bonds, or meeting certain financial preconditions.

In Hallock's interpretation, if a different private-equity firm wanted to buy SRS, the wording of this contract might allow it to raise money for the purchase with debt, and then send that money to Leonard Green without making the usual considerations for bondholders.

From his note, with our emphasis:

Under a typical indenture, if an acquirer incurs debt in order to fund the payment of acquisition consideration to a target’s equity holders, and the target subsequently provides credit support for that debt (either by merging with the acquirer or guaranteeing the debt), then the debt-funded payments to the target’s equity holders should be treated as a Restricted Payment made by the target. If the target is a high yield issuer, then there must either be sufficient capacity under the target’s Restricted Payments covenant or the target’s bonds must be taken out. This customary LBO protection could be undermined entirely be the inclusion of carveout (d) here. The Company might be able to argue that carveout (d) allows any Restricted Payments that would otherwise be deemed to have been made upon a merger with an acquirer. We have never seen a Restricted Payments carveout that tracks the language of this carveout (d), and we see no justification for it here. Investors should demand that carveout (d) be deleted.
3) In-secure debt

SRS apparently still has some loopholes in its bond covenants meant to limit the amount of secured debt it accumulates, Hallock said. Secured debt investors usually want those limits, because their secured status gives them a claim on the company's finite assets in the case of a default or bankruptcy, and the less competition they have for those, the better.

But SRS's bonds simply limit “First Lien Net Leverage”, which means it does not consistently capture debt with a secondary claim (or second lien) on company assets, he said.

And interestingly, that hypothetical quaternary buyout shows up again: the company could “potentially incur unsecured acquisition financing debt” -- debt from a deal -- and then “refinance that debt with secured debt,” he wrote.

4) Six versions of a test

Most junk-rated borrowers' debt contracts include limitations on future borrowing. These might include a “ratio test”, which require companies to show they meet certain standards for key figures in their financials, as measured by a ratio. (Debt to earnings, for example.)

The “standard high yield deal” involves just one test, says Hallock, and that is the “2x coverage ratio”. In short, it says that a company with high-yield bonds outstanding can't take on more debt unless its ebit (earnings before interest and tax) is large enough to cover its interest costs twice over.

In contrast, SRS's bonds include six ratio tests.

Hallock told us that SRS changed some of those six ratios before it closed the bond deal, so we won't get into the weeds by listing the ones originally proposed. But needless to say, we would bet there are some banks that would like to calculate their regulatory metrics this way (six possibilities, all of which they can see ahead of time).

FT : Sony signals return to spending after restructuring austerity

Sony signals return to spending after restructuring austerity
Company buys controlling stake in EMI Music for $2.3bn as new CEO makes his mark

Sony has signalled a shift to spending mode after a decade of restructuring, as it aims to generate $18bn in cash flow over the next three years to increase acquisitions of entertainment content and technology.

The change of gear coincided with an announcement by the Japanese technology and entertainment group that it would spend $2.3bn to buy a controlling stake in EMI Music Publishing, gaining access to more than 2m songs from Queen, Pharrell Williams and other artists. 

The deal is the biggest acquisition under Kenichiro Yoshida, who took over as chief executive in April, after Sony halted losses in its consumer electronics divisions to report its highest ever annual profit. 

In outlining the company’s three-year business plan, Mr Yoshida on Tuesday stressed the company would focus on sustaining steady profits through subscription model businesses that offered recurring revenue, instead of just selling a Bravia television or a PlayStation gaming console. 

Given that strategy, Mr Yoshida refrained from setting an operating profit target for the group, a move that briefly sent shares down 3.7 per cent. The stock was down 1.4 per cent in afternoon trading in Tokyo, while the broader market was off 0.1 per cent.

Instead Mr Yoshida said Sony would aim to generate cash flow of ¥2tn ($18bn) or more over the next three years, compared with ¥1.48tn in the previous three years. 

“Over the next three years, I’d like to focus on enhancing the quality of profits by increasing recurring businesses rather than expanding profits,” Mr Yoshida said at a news conference in Tokyo. 

Half of the targeted ¥2tn will be used primarily for capital expenditure on image sensors for smartphones, with the rest going towards acquiring content assets, technologies and increasing shareholder returns. 

“They’re pretty much with done with taking action that was needed for existing businesses so it’s time for Sony to go on the offensive,” said Kazunori Ito, analyst at research firm Ibbotson Association Japan. “But it’s not going to be easy from here.” 

Mr Ito said the other financial targets Sony outlined were conservative but realistic. Sony said it would aim for an operating profit of ¥130bn-¥170bn for its PlayStation business in the 2020-21 fiscal year, lower than the ¥190bn it forecasts for the current financial year, as gains from the success of its PlayStation 4 console start to slow.

Mr Yoshida, who was previously Sony’s chief financial officer, is credited for executing a turnround plan by his predecessor Kazuo Hirai that included the sale of Sony’s Vaio PC and battery businesses.

Sony now hopes to use its PlayStation and other entertainment networks to connect its users across products, and to keep its users engaged through subscription services. 

“I’m currently not considering selling [any more] businesses. We’d rather like to focus on how we can strengthen our existing businesses,” Mr Yoshida said. 

The EMI deal would allow Sony not only to cement its position as the world’s largest music publisher but also to take advantage of the recovery in the industry driven by the expansion of music streaming services. 

In 2012, a Sony-led consortium including Mubadala, an Abu Dhabi fund, acquired EMI’s publishing business from Citigroup for about $2.2bn. At the time, Sony put about $325m of equity into the venture. 

With Sony’s additional investment, which is based on an enterprise value of $4.75bn, the Japanese group will hold an indirect equity stake of about 90 per cent by taking over Mubadala’s 60 per cent holding.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 22nd of May 2018

>>> Up
* AB InBev Upgraded to Sector Perform at RBC
* Ashmore Upgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 3.95 Pounds
* Galp Upgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
* Leoni Upgraded to Buy at HSBC; PT 65 Euros
* Next Upgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
* Paradox Interactive Upgraded to Buy at Carnegie; PT 185 Kronor

>>> Down
* Aker BP Downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 320 Kroner
* ElringKlinger Downgraded to Reduce at HSBC; PT 12 Euros
* KPN Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman; PT 2.70 Euros
* NKT Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 190 Kroner
* Pandora Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 700 Kroner
* Richemont Downgraded to Hold at SBG Securities; PT 93 Francs


>>> Initiation
* Fiat Chrysler Rated New Buy at HSBC


>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 22nd of May 2018

Most Asian stocks dipped in a holiday-hit trading session Tuesday, with the dollar and U.S. Treasuries little changed as crude oil held around its highest New York level since 2014. Companies selling baby products saw gains after news that China plans to abandon its policy on childbirths, though the advances weren’t enough to hold up domestic Chinese equity benchmarks. Japan’s Topix Index edged lower, while Australian shares fell. Without fresh news on U.S.-China trade talks, investors may turn their attention later this week to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting for clues on the likely number of interest-rate hikes remaining this year.

Nikkei -0.13% Hang Seng +0.60% CSI -0.78% Shanghai -0.47% Shenzen -0.13%

Eur$ 1.1780 CNH 6.3613 CNY 6.3758 JPY 110.92 GBP 1.3422 CHF 0.9967 RUB 61.6259 WTI$ 72.56 +0.29%

S&P +0.04% EuroStoxx +0.03% Dax +0.55% SMI +0.23% FTSE -0.07%

Macro :
- Next Headwind for U.S. Stocks Rally Could Be Midterm Elections
- Yale’s Shiller Warns Crypto May Be Another Cincinnati Time Store
- Michael Gelband Said to Start Record $8 Billion Hedge Fund
- Threat of Cobalt Shock Is a Top Risk for Electric Vehicles

Keep an eye on :
- AI FP : Air Liquide Open to More Acquisitions, CEO Potier Tells Figaro
- ATC NA : French Telco Regulator Says Operators Invested EU9.6B in 2017
- ALV GY : Pimco Says Economies Must Fend for Selves in Post-Crisis World
- AMZN US : Amazon Won’t Face Significantly Higher Postage Rates, Cowen Says
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal’s Ilva Acquisition Seen Creating Upside Risks: MS
- BMW GY : Threat of Cobalt Shock Is a Top Risk for Electric Vehicles
- EN FP : French Telco Regulator Says Operators Invested EU9.6B in 2017
- BN FP : Dannon Settles Lawsuit Against Executive Who Left for Chobani
- DBK GY : Nizar Al-Bassam Sues Deutsche Bank Over $4.7 Million Bonus
- ERF FP : Eurofins in Outsourcing Pact W/ Astellas in Japan
- FEYE US : FireEye Reports Pricing of $525.0M Convertible Notes Offering
- HELN SW : Helvetia CEO Says 2018 Dividend Likely Not Below 2017: Cash
- ILD FP : French Telco Regulator Says Operators Invested EU9.6B in 2017
- LUN DC : Lundbeck Sells 2 Preclinical Research Programs to MindImmune
- MU US : Announces $10B share buyback authorization (15.6% of market cap) - investor day
- NFLX US : Obamas to Produce Netflix Movies and Shows Under Multiyear Deal
- OERL SW : Renova Cuts Its Stake in Oerlikon to Around 20%
- ORA FP : French Telco Regulator Says Operators Invested EU9.6B in 2017
- RIO LN : Mongolia Must Honor Agreements to Win Investment, Rio Exec. Says
- SAN FP : Regeneron, Sanofi Report Positive Dupixent Results
- SON PL : Sonae Says Continues to Study Possible Retail Portfolio Listing
- SOON SW : Sonova Full Year Sales Meet Estimates
- SQ US : Square to Offer $750 Million of Convertible Notes Due 2023
- TEMN SW : Temenos to Buy Back up to $250m in Shares May 23 to Dec. 30
- TSLA US : Tesla Model 3 Rebuffed by Consumer Reports on Slow Braking
- WPP LN : Fitch Cuts Ad Giant WPP’s Outlook to Negative, Keeps BBB+ Rating
- ZURN SW : Zurich Insurance Spent CHF548m on Share Buyback

NY Post : Goldman Sachs: Trump’s tax cuts could cause recession

President Trump’s $1.4 trillion tax cut could have painful consequences for the economy down the road — including a possible recession and a ballooning deficit, according to Goldman Sachs.
“The US fiscal outlook is not good,” Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a Sunday note.
The Wall Street powerhouse — whose former president Gary Cohn helped engineer the tax package as the White House economic adviser — dismissed economic projections by the Congressional Budget Office as too “optimistic,” and said that the deficit could spike by about 2.5 times, to $2.05 trillion, by 2028.

In one scenario, the bond market could punish the US for its growing debt levels by making it more expensive to borrow — thereby swelling deficits further, according to the Goldman note.
That could end up constraining any economic stimulus packages during the next recession, which isn’t likely for the next “couple years,” the bank said.
Goldman doesn’t believe that Congress is likely to do anything about the runaway deficits “in the near-term,” thanks to the election cycle and the impending retirement of US Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), an outspoken hawk on the issue.