Challenges : Comment le gouvernement souhaite se servir des privatisations pour

Comment le gouvernement souhaite se servir des privatisations pour réveiller l'actionnariat populaire
Par Pierre-Henri de Menthon le 21.06.2018 à 12h06 ABONNÉS
Alors que le gouvernement s'apprête à initier plusieurs opérations de privatisation, Bruno Le Maire l'assure: ces cessions de participations comporteront une tranche réservée aux actionnaires individuels. L'objectif: réveiller l'actionnariat populaire.

Après avoir annoncé plusieurs opérations de privatisation (Engie, Française des jeux, ADP), le gouvernement envisagerait de nouvelles cessions de participations. Selon Les Echos, Orange, Air France-KLM, ou encore dans le secteur de l'automobile (Renault, PSA) seraient dans le viseur de Bercy. Une aubaine à venir pour les actionnaires individuels français?
Car, derrière les enjeux stratégiques et politiques, Bruno Le Mairel'a en effet promis: les opérations de privatisation comporteront une "tranche réservée aux actionnaires particuliers" conformément au souhait d'Emmanuel Macron de "développer un véritable actionnariat populaire". Un réveil bienvenu tant leur nombre a fondu (voir graphique ci-dessous) , avec un âge moyen de plus en plus élevé (58 ans). Les spots de pub vantant les mérites de telle ou telle société issue du secteur public sont loin et ces opérations ont parfois laissé de mauvais souvenirs.

Comme l'introduction en Bourse d'EDF fin 2005, au cours de 32 euros. Treize ans plus tard le titre, qui a été sorti du CAC 40, se traîne aux alentours de 11 euros, et les actionnaires attendent toujours de savoir quelles sont les intentions de l'Etat, qui détient plus de 70 % du capital. A l'inverse, ceux qui ont souscrit en 2006 à l'ouverture du capital d'Aéroports de Paris (ADP) à 44 euros ont fait une bonne affaire, puisque le cours se négocie aujourd'hui à plus de 190 euros. Faudra-t-il reprendre de l'ADP lorsque l'Etat en vendra à nouveau?
"La privatisation peut être une chance", a prudemment répondu Augustin de Romanet, le PDG, au Figaro. Charles Henri d'Auvigny, président de la Fédération des investisseurs individuels, ne déborde pas non plus d'enthousiasme. Il est favorable à ces opérations, mais "à condition que l'argent n'aille pas seulement dans les caisses de l'Etat" . Oui aux privatisations, mais "pour participer à l'expansion des sociétés concernées".

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

  • AOBC -7%, SCS -4.2%, CMC -2.4%, MEI -1.7%

Other news:

  • LMNR -14.3% (to acquire a ranch and related assets of Fruticola San Pablo S.A in La Serena, Chile for $13 million; prices 2,727,272 common stock offering at $22.00/share)
  • VERI -11.6% (commenced an underwritten public offering of shares of its common stock)
  • CLPS -8.9% (following 55% move higher following Chairman update to shareholders)
  • TRUP -7.2% (proposed public offering of common stock)
  • YTRA -5.2% (to launch follow-on offering of approximately 8.5 million of its ordinary shares)
  • FCEL -3.6% (FuelCell Energy notified by POSCO (PKX) in writing MOU will terminate effective July 15, 2018)
  • WIX -1.7% (commences $350 mln offering of Convertible Senior Notes due 2023)
  • GOOS -1.6% (to offer for sale 10 mln subordinate voting shares by shareholders, including executive officers and directors ), .

Analyst comments:

  • ARRS -2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
  • SIRI -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman)
  • PH -1.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo)
  • NKE -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

  • BNED +10.8%, DRI +9%, KR +8.9%, MU +5%, PDCO +2.1%

M&A news:

  • MTCH +1.1% (acquired a 51% ownership stake in Hinge, the NYC-based relationship app; has the right to acquire all the remaining shares of Hinge within the next 12 months)

Argentina-exposed ADRs higher on MSCI reclassification to Emerging Markets status:

  • TGS +20.6%, BFR +12.6%, EDN +11.6%, LOMA +11.3%, GGAL +11.1%, TEO +10.6%, BMA +9.4%, ARGT +8.8%, PAM +7.7%, YPF +6.6%, IRS +4.8%

Other news:

  • CASI +38.2% (announces strategic and long-term manufacturing agreement with Yiling Wanzhou International Pharmaceutical Co., for the manufacturing of entecavir and cilostazol)
  • MESO +7.4% (announces key Day 100 survival outcomes of its Phase 3 trial for remestemcel-L, an allogeneic mesenchymal stem cell product candidate)
  • HPQ +2.6% (authorized an additional $4.0 billion for future repurchases of its outstanding shares of common stock)
  • RYTM +2.2% (prices public offering of 5,732,000 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $26.42 per share)
  • WDC +2% (following MU results)
  • LGF.A +2% (continued strength)
  • THO +1.7% (announces $250 million share repurchase authorization)
  • INCY +1.5% (announces 'positive' topline results from its ongoing pivotal Phase 2 REACH1 trial)
  • FOXA +1.4% (extending today's move higher)
  • AMD +0.9% (following MU results)
  • SHPG +0.7% (announces FDA approval for label expansion of Cinryze for prevention of attacks in pediatric hereditary angioedema patients)

Analyst comments:

  • LITE +4% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman)
  • BDX +1.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • GLW +1.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman)
  • VZ +1.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman)
  • CHTR +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman)

>>> US Early premarket gappers


Early premarket gappers

Gapping up:

  • TGS +20.6%, BFR +12.6%, GGAL +11.9%, EDN +11.1%, BNED +10.8%, LOMA +10.7%, TEO +10.6%, BMA +9.4%, PAM +7.1%, YPF +6.6%, ARGT +5.3%, IRS +4.8%, MU +4.5%, LITE +2.8%, HPQ +2.6%, LGF.A +2%, THO +1.7%, WDC +1.4%, FOXA +1.3%, GLW +1.1%

Gapping down:

  • LMNR -10.5%, CLPS -8.3%, TRUP -4.8%, VERI -4.6%, AOBC -4.4%, SCS -4.2%, ARRS -2%, TS -1.8%, WIX -1.7%, CMC -1.6%, FCEL -1.2%, MEI -1.

FT : Oil trader warns Opec not to raise output too fast

Oil trader warns Opec not to raise output too fast
Pierre Andurand points to low spare capacity to deal with unexpected supply outages

Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand, one of the most storied oil traders of his generation, has a simple message for Opec and Russia as they meet in Vienna to discuss raising output: do not shoot all your bullets just yet.

The oil specialist, who has returned investors in his eponymous $1.2bn fund 135 per cent net of fees in the past five years, warned the cartel that trying to cap the oil price rally too aggressively right now would leave it short of capacity in the future.

“Maybe Opec can cap the upside for oil in the short term but it would be incredibly dangerous for them to shoot all their bullets now,” Mr Andurand said in an interview with the Financial Times at his offices in London’s Knightsbridge last week.

“There is very limited spare capacity in the market so I think they will be careful about how much they raise, otherwise they risk creating problems in the future if their additional supply is easily absorbed.”

The France-born trader, who spent time with Goldman Sachs and Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil dealer, before entering the hedge fund world a decade ago, has been consulted by Opec members before about the outlook for crude.


He has been bullish for some time on the prospects for oil, forecasting an eventual return to $100 a barrel last August when many in the industry were still predicting that the post-2014 downturn would be longer and deeper than previous slumps due to US shale production.

Crude has risen to its highest level in four years, reaching $80 a barrel last month, heaping pressure on Opec and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia — not least from the Twitter account of US president Donald Trump — to do more to cool the price when it holds a meeting with Russia in Vienna this week.

But Mr Andurand’s view is that the oil rally has not just been stoked by planned supply cuts by major producers, which started early last year.

Demand has risen fast, inventories are down, and companies have slashed investment in future supplies. Production problems in Venezuela and Libya and renewed US sanctions on Iran’s exports are adding to a sense of tightness in the market.

“The fundamentals of markets can be very slow to turn,” Mr Andurand said. “We’re heading into a supply deficit now and just as the market was previously in surplus for three to four years I’d expect it to remain largely in deficit for a similar amount of time.”

It is for this reason he thinks Opec and Russia are likely to tread cautiously when they meet over Friday and Saturday, with delegates and ministers already gathering in the Austrian capital.

So-called spare capacity available to deal with unexpected supply outages is at its lowest in years, with Saudi Arabia the only country sitting on more than a few thousand barrels a day of additional production in a 100m b/d market.

Russia has talked of collectively raising output by 1.5m b/d but it is seen as unlikely this will gain acceptance within Opec and there are questions over where the barrels would come from.


“I think it is more likely that we see of 500,000 barrels a day increase or if more it will be staged over time,” Mr Andurand said.

He cautioned any announced increase might not result in any additional barrels reaching the market on a net basis, with further output declines predicted in Venezuela and Iran.

“If Opec and Russia raise output too fast now there could be little spare capacity left as demand keeps rising. This is a recipe for explosive price action to the upside,” he said.

Mr Andurand’s view was echoed on Wednesday by Scott Sheffield, the chairman of Pioneer Natural Resources, one of the largest US shale operators. He said that while he did not oppose an output increase by Opec to cool prices temporarily it would leave the market very vulnerable.

“At that point in time spare capacity will be zero or close to it,” Mr Sheffield said in Vienna, warning that this could boost prices in the event of further “geopolitical events”. He added that the US shale industry’s growth was heading for a slowdown from late summer that he predicted would last about 12 months until they could add additional pipeline capacity to get the oil more easily to market.

Mr Andurand said he is keeping his core bet on rising prices, despite them having pulled back since Saudi Arabia and Russia first started discussing output increases.

“Looking at the supply demand balances I don’t see how this works without prices rising to curb demand. We saw almost $150 a barrel 10 years ago. There’s little reason why we can’t go there again,” he said.