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NEW YORK, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Market euphoria could carry U.S. stocks another 20% higher before giving way to a collapse on the scale of the 1929 crash that ushered in a global recession, according to tail-risk hedge fund Universa Investments.

The benchmark S&P 500 has gained about 13% this year, hitting a fresh record high on Monday after the Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates for the first time since December.

The central bank has indicated more cuts are likely as it tries to counterbalance a weakening labor market, which could add to and broaden Wall Street's rally.

For Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer and founder of Universa, stocks may rise roughly another 20% from current levels, driving the S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab - which was last at about 6,653 points - to over 8,000 points.

However, he warns that this ascent is likely to be followed by a historic crash as the U.S. economy is expected to buckle under the burden of still high borrowing costs.

"I do expect an 80% crash ... but only after a massive, euphoric, historic blow off rally," said Spitznagel in an interview. "I would argue we're in the middle of that (rally) right now, not at the end of it."

Miami-headquartered Universa is a $20 billion hedge fund that specializes in protecting against “black swan” shocks - rare, high-impact events that jolt markets - using financial instruments such as credit default swaps, stock options, and other derivatives that gain value during extreme market dislocations. Its average return on capital since its founding in 2007 is over 100%.

Investors use such tail-risk funds as insurance, as they carry small costs that drag on performance until disaster hits and the payoff is massive. Universa proved the point in 2020, emerging as one of the big winners amid the market chaos unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Universa is the most bearish expression of the market there is, and clients use us to be longer the market ... which is paradoxical," said Spitznagel, adding he remains bullish for the time being.

Spitznagel had said last year investors should seize the “goldilocks” moment for markets caused by expectations that the Fed could tame inflation without hurting the economy, and predicted that euphoria would build further before giving way to a crash.

He also said in a separate interview later last year, when the Fed started easing monetary policy, that a U.S. recession was imminent.

While the economy has held up well since then, Spitznagel argues it is still propped up by the excesses of ultra-loose monetary policy since 2008, and that the full impact of sharply higher rates that followed the pandemic has yet to be felt.

"We're going to see the consequences of that ... it takes time," he said.

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AI, robotics and automation redefine logistics, merging speed, efficiency and human oversight.

It’s not a question of man versus machine, but rather how far they can go when working together.

When it comes to logistics and technology, automation and humanity are teaming up to get goods loaded, shipped, railed, trucked, stored, sorted, picked, packed and delivered with ever-greater efficiencies.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are the backbone of such advances, making robots and automation not just faster, but exponentially smarter. This means more autonomous robots that intelligently zip across floors, flying warehouse drones that scan packages and RFID tags from above, and agile super robots that put human limitations to shame.

Warehouse managers suddenly have new “employees” to manage: robots. Garner projects that one in 20 supervisors will be overseeing robots, not humans, by 2030. Federica Stufano, senior principal analyst at Gartner, said that, particularly as robots-as-a-service, or RaaS, models, which effectively allow companies to rent robots as part of a subscription-based contract, will only increase the need for humans to oversee robots in the warehouse.

Even so, a hybrid model is the most likely scenario. “Most facilities will evolve into hybrid environments, where managers are overseeing both people and robots together,” said Christopher Smith, chief executive officer of Slip Robotics.

Addressing the industry’s “need for speed,” last mile is the newest arms race, with mega retailers building out their own freight fulfillment technologies. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon claims that one out of three deliveries from the store are now completed in three hours or less. On an August earnings call, he noted agentic AI could be used to create “digital twins” of Walmart’s facilities, “which can help predict or prevent issues before they happen,” he said.

Meanwhile, Target stepped up its own store fulfillment hubs with new sorting technology. “If you ask any of the 2,000 store directors what is going to make or break their day, they will tell you it’s the trailer unload — when a trailer comes from one of our distribution centers,” said Target chief supply chain and logistics officer Gretchen McCarthy. “That sets the tone for the day. These trailers have thousands of skus across up to 3,000 cartons, and it’s hard. It drives payroll, it drives potential safety issues and ultimately, it’s not very efficient.”

But is the industry truly seizing the wheel when it comes to technology? Manhattan Associates research shows the majority of transportation leaders believe agentic AI will act for them by 2030, and companies must keep up.

“Eighty-seven percent of respondents anticipate that challenges in areas such as operational visibility, AI adoption and sustainability compliance will intensify, leaving their current transportation management systems struggling to keep pace,” said Bryan Smith, director, transportation management systems at Manhattan Associates. “Failure to act now will expose organizations to rising costs, questions over long-term efficacy, and the risk of falling short of customer promises.”

A report by Inspectorio also showed that the supply chain industry is behind the curve when it comes to technology adoption, especially for areas like sustainability. Companies may have a unique opportunity to pair sustainability goals with AI technology, particularly if they haven’t already begun implementing the systems into the supply chain. However, the company’s data showed that most organizations aren’t there yet. In fact, less than 5 percent of respondents using AI in their organizations said sustainability was a primary use case.

Even though a low adoption rate exists for AI across the supply chain industry, survey respondents were still optimistic and enthusiastic about the future. Eight in 10 supply chain leaders said technological advancements — primarily AI and ML — will have a significant impact on the supply chain within the next five years.

On the heels of Demna's surprise release of the spring 2026 collection's look book, WWD pooled the first reactions from fashion historians, vintage connoisseurs and talent scouts. Here's what they had to say.

MILAN — The Demna era at Gucci has officially begun.

The designer unveiled his first designs for the Italian luxury house on Monday, with the surprise release of a 37-outfit — plus a trunk — look book photographed by Catherine Opie, ahead of the short film “The Tiger” shown on Tuesday evening in Milan, directed by Spike Jonze and Halina Reijn.

Aimed at telegraphing the “Gucciness” of Gucci, Demna created a series of characters who are part of “La Famiglia,” each with their own personality and attitude, as he revealed in his first exclusive interview as artistic director of Gucci to WWD.

WWD pooled the first reactions from fashion historians, vintage connoisseurs and talent scouts. Here’s what they had to say.

With his début Gucci collection, Demna had a clear agenda: steady the business, reassert creative dominance and renew the house’s storytelling while revisiting heritage signatures. He delivered on all fronts with brio. Missions accomplished. Demna begins by reimagining the brand as a family: “Gucci La Famiglia.” In doing so, Demna crafts a dynamic and expansive narrative to embody and personify the “Gucciness of Gucci.” Presented as a look book, this first collection is photographed by Catherine Opie as family portraits of an extended tribe, framed in their identities and united by a shared aesthetic language. In perfect alignment with Gucci’s origins, the story begins with “L’Archetipo” a monogramed travel trunk that highlight’s the house’s roots as a valigeria. It continues with a cast of characters, a perfect lineup, each embodying one of the 37 personas of Demna’s Gucci family. From La Contessa, La Diva, Drama Queen and Flora to Partyboy, Androgino, Narcista and Introverso, each wears their silhouettes with the signature ease and casual grandeur of the Gucci house. At Balenciaga, Demna put Cristobal in the center of the conversation. Now, at Gucci, he has created an entire family. To “Gucci La Famiglia.”

I have always loved Demna’s storytelling ability, and this idea of a Gucci “family” is a clear representation of that, with a touch of irony and retro sexiness filtered through a more instinctive, emotional approach. If you go past the archive tribute, there are strong shoulders, dramatic silhouettes, clashing fabrics and that overarching idea Demna masters: Fashion isn’t here only to please us, it’s here to move us, to make us question the world and see it from another perspective. Some of these looks are easy, others make you uncomfortable. We’re not yet witnessing the revolution, but it is as if Demna is inviting us to take notes and find the evidence of things to come. Don’t be fooled, there is intention. What strikes me is the designer Demna is today. My eyes still see that twentysomething talent who arrived at ITS Contest in 2004 and won Collection of the Year. I see that intensity, that poetry, a romantic soul looking at the world. Yet now, after years of conceptual provocation and technical growth, one can tell he wants to make clothes that feel good in real life — pieces that carry emotion, pleasure, surprise. It’s a new direction for him, not just for Gucci. It is never just about fashion with Demna. That’s why, for me, it’s a 10.

Overall, I liked what I saw — but I think this is more a teaser of Demna’s future at Gucci than a definitive statement of direction. The references are clear: Tom Ford, Alessandro [Michele] and, of course, his own Balenciaga DNA. There’s something here for everyone, which is exactly the point of a first outing. What I’ll be watching closely is which of these “characters” he chooses to elevate in the seasons ahead, and how he defines a new Gucci narrative from them. Personally, I loved the 1960s touches — look 2 is a standout — and there’s no question stylists are already vying for that star black gown for their clients. Smartly, Demna hasn’t overplayed his hand. By keeping the field wide open, he ensures that the audience is left wanting more. And in fashion, that’s the best first move you can make.

When analyzing the data, we have keywords from this collection that spring out from three different designers and Gucci eras: Tom Ford, [with] lots of black croc, sexy, etc.; Alessandro Michele [with] floral, long dresses with feathers, and Demna’s world, which is a little more “cultural” — about attitude, not just about style and something bigger than a fashion moment — with the sequins, the short faux fur coats. Essentially, Demna’s touch is so predominant in this first drop, not only in the styling, attitudes but also with the different personas depicted in each picture. He’s developed these Gucci facets and brought to life characters within the brands history and DNA.

Within a two-hour time frame after the images went live on Tagwalk, the most viewed looks on the Paris-based fashion search engine that has more than 350,000 users were the fur coat with a chevron motif in its pile dubbed “Milanesa”; the blue double-breasted shearling coat with mutton-leg sleeves named “Sciura,” and the black “Gallerista” suit with a pussy-bow leopard blouse.

Looking at the picture after 24 hours, “Milanesa” and “Sciura” remained in the lead for womenswear, while the look titled “La Bomba” with the tiger motif took the third spot.

The top three keywords that were most applied on the collection were black, eveningwear and high-necked.

In menswear, “Nerd,” “Narcisista” and “Introverso” were the most viewed silhouettes on Tagwalk.

The Disney+ standalone plan with ads will increase by $2 to $11.99 per month, while the no-ads Disney+ Premium plan is increasing by $3 to $18.99 per month. The Disney+ Premium annual plan is increasing by $30 to $189.99 per year.

The Hulu standalone plan with ads is increasing from $9.99 per month to $11.99. However, the premium version of Hulu with no ads will remain at $18.99 per month. Additionally, the price of ESPN Select is increasing from $11.99 to $12.99 per month.

The Disney+ and Hulu with ads bundle subscription price is going up by $2 to $12.99, while the Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN Select bundle with ads is increasing by $3 to $19.99. The full list of price increases for Disney+ and Hulu bundle plans can be found on the company’s support page.

The timing of the price increases isn’t ideal, as Disney+ subscribers canceled their subscriptions in droves last week, protesting Disney’s decision to temporarily pull Jimmy Kimmel from its airwaves.

Disney+ launched in 2019 with a $6.99 monthly subscription, and has since followed other streaming services in gradually increasing its prices. The company’s last price hike was announced in October 2024, when the ad-free plan increased from $13.99 per month to $15.99, and the plan with ads increased from $7.99 per month to $9.99.

The Caterpillar and Komatsu rival is investing heavily in battery swapping and driverless technology

China’s biggest electric-truck maker says it is targeting growth overseas, in a fresh challenge to the global auto industry as Chinese production of high-tech, low-cost battery-powered heavy goods vehicles booms.

Liang Linhe, who leads the electric trucking division of Sany Group, a construction and mining equipment behemoth, expects around half the group’s sales will come from overseas markets by 2030, up from about 10 per cent this year.  

“We are already seeing the rapid development of the overseas market,” he told the Financial Times in an interview, adding that the “biggest challenge” was that many countries’ electricity infrastructure lagged that of China.

The Chinese group launched its electric truck business in 2021 and has won a market share of around 16 per cent domestically. The group expects annual sales of about 30,000 electric trucks for 2025, mostly in China. It has opened an electric truck factory in South Africa this year, is scouting for land in Brazil for a second overseas operation and has begun selling its vehicles in Europe.

The electrification of China’s trucking fleet and Sany’s overseas ambitions threaten the future of companies making and operating heavy goods vehicles that use diesel or LNG fuel, in an industry already beset with overcapacity.

Diesel trucks accounted for around 51 per cent of sales in China in the first eight months of the year, compared with 75 per cent in the same period in 2023, according to Commercial Vehicle World (CV World), a Beijing-based data provider. By contrast, electric trucks’ penetration rate has soared to around 24 per cent, from as low as 4 per cent two years earlier.

China produced 1.1mn medium- and heavy-commercial vehicles in 2023, less than a quarter of its truckmaking factory capacity, according to S&P Global Mobility data.

Sany was co-founded by Liang’s uncle, billionaire Liang Wengen, once China’s richest man. Headquartered in Changsha, central China, the company is the country’s biggest heavy-machinery manufacturer and rivals US group Caterpillar and Japan’s Komatsu with operations in 140 countries. As part of Sany’s European entry, it is working with Putzmeister, the German high-tech concrete pump company that Sany and Citic bought for €525mn in 2012.

Liang expects to charge higher prices and have a fatter profit margin from overseas sales — a strategy that mirrors China’s leading electric vehicle groups, which are wary of political blowback from flooding foreign markets with cheap goods. “Otherwise, someone might say we are dumping, leading to some sanctions,” he said.  

Sany has invested around Rmb22bn ($3.1bn) developing its electric truck business. The Changsha factory has capacity to produce around 150,000 trucks a year in its first phase, with plans to double capacity to 300,000 over the coming five years.

Christopher Doleman, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said China’s electric truckmakers appear set to follow a “similar path” to China’s EV groups. Amid intense domestic competition, they have pivoted to a strategy of export-driven growth to use their manufacturing capacity and maintain profitability.

“That could be to any country that has set out to reduce their dependence on oil and diesel imports,” he said.

Steep declines in battery costs and improvements in range have been crucial to China’s electric trucking boom. Equally, state subsidies for fleet owners to trade in diesel trucks and local officials allocating special travel lanes for battery-powered vehicles have helped Chinese companies achieve scale.

Industry executives predict electric trucks will have a 50 per cent market share within three years in China.

However, Cassie Liu, a Beijing-based heavy truck research analyst with S&P Global Mobility, said the cost of switching to electric is still prohibitive for many individual owner-operators who make up the majority of the trucking fleet. Diesel trucks, according to her team’s forecasts, will still dominate the sector through to at least 2032.

Liang, however, expected many operators to be subsumed into bigger fleets as the electric transition gathers pace. Sany, he added, invests about 8 per cent of its revenues into research and development for Changsha’s battery production, solar-powered battery swapping and charging networks across China, as well as driverless technology.

“This is our core technology,” he said, adding, “Many partners from overseas markets are very interested, including from the United States.”

Taking charge

Germany is ready to take a leading role in the EU’s rearmament drive, pitching itself as the leader for joint arms projects in an outline of how it thinks the bloc should respond to mounting security threats from Russia, writes Paola Tamma.

Context: Brussels is preparing a road map on how to get the EU’s defences ready by 2030 that will be presented to EU leaders meeting in October.

In a leaked policy paper seen by the Financial Times, Berlin sent in its recommendations, proposing to create “collective capability coalitions” — groups of member states that would jointly develop and procure weapon systems across specific priority areas, such as air defence.

“Germany stands ready to assume a leading role,” Berlin wrote.

Most of the joint projects should be aimed at the threat from the east: “Given the persistent threat posed by Russia to the security of the EU, the projects should primarily focus on the protection of the eastern flank,” the paper read.

Germany would also like the European Defence Agency to take on a bigger role as “central matchmaking and co-ordination platform for European procurement needs”, and urged governments to provide it the necessary data to map capability gaps.

Through joint procurement, member states should pool their market power while also aligning standards across national armaments. Crucially, “the projects should be open for Ukraine and for eligible third countries”, Germany said — a jab at France’s push for European preference in defence procurement.

The paper also urges deregulation of arms manufacturing, including easing state aid and competition rules. “Deregulation is all the more important since member states must be able in the future to massively and swiftly ramp up their defence production in a state of defence,” it said.

Finally, Berlin thinks the funding for the projects should not come from new common EU debt, something southern countries have been calling for.

Instead, Germany reiterated its stance that the money should come from an existing €150bn defence loan scheme, and a separate €1.5bn subsidy programme currently under negotiation, as well as national budgets.