>>> What to look at today - 1st of August 2018

Asian equities rose and the dollar strengthened as investors sifted through the latest news on the U.S.-China trade front and positive results from Apple Inc. Bonds fell as Japanese yields climbed higher after the central bank said it would allow more flexibility in yield movements.
Stocks climbed in Japan and South Korea, while they drifted elsewhere in the region. In a move seen as pressuring China back to the negotiating table, the Trump administration will propose raising to 25 percent its planned 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports, three people familiar with the internal deliberations said. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index capped a fourth monthly gain after Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and China were trying to restart talks aimed at averting a full-blown trade war. The offshore yuan slipped as China weakened its fixing for the currency to the lowest since May 2017.
US after Hours : MOH +19%, P +12%, AAPL +3.8% are higher, while CAKE -8%, MB -6%, AKAM / WLL -4% are lower following earnings/guidance

Nikkei +0.77% Hang Seng -0.34% CSI -0.84% Shanghai -0.68% shenzen -0.69%

Eur$ 1.1682 CNH 6.8414 CNY 6.8298 JPY 112.04 GBP 1.3101 CHF 0.9931 RUB 62.6233 WTI 68.45 -0.45%

S&P +0.02% EuroStoxx -0.14% FTSE -0.29% Dax -0.03% SMI /

Macro :
- U.K. Property Stocks At ‘Cliff Edge’ Valuations, Jefferies Says

Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : Air France-KLM 2Q Op. Income Falls to EU345m as Strike Hurts, Intended JV Pact B/W Air France-KLM and Air Europa
- AF FP : SNPL Union Pilots Approve Hop! Labor-Conditions Agreement: AFP
- ALO FP : Alstom, Italo Sign Contract for Five Pendolino Evo Trains
- AMS SM : Amadeus Is Said to Hold Talks With Thoma Bravo for TravelClick
- APAM NA : Aperam Second Quarter Ebitda Meets Estimates
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal Second Quarter Ebitda 4.4% Above Estimates
- AKE FP : Arkema Second Quarter Ebitda Beats Highest Estimate
- BNP FP : *BNP PARIBAS 2Q NET EU2.39B VS EST. EU2.06B
- CPB US : *THIRD POINT IS SAID TO BUILD AN OVER $300M CAMPBELL STAKE: WSJ
- CNP FP : CNP Assurances Fined EU8m Over Poor Controls on Money Laundering
- COM GY : comdirect Second Quarter Pretax Profit 1.6% Below Estimates
- DANSKE DC : Danske Bank Chairman Defends Money Laundering Review, J.P. Says
- DLG GY : Dialog Semiconductor Ends Talks on Potential Synaptics Deal --> SYNA : -13% in after Hours
- DLG GY : Synaptics Sees Fourth-Quarter EPS at High-End of Prior Guidance
- DSM NA : DSM Second Quarter Adjusted Ebitda 1.2% Above Estimates
- DSV DC : DSV Boosts FY Adj. Oper Profit View, Midpoint 1.3% Above Est.
- EDP PL : Altri to Buy 50% of EDP Bioelectrica from EDP for EU55m
- ENEL IM : Enel 1H Revenue, Ebitda, Adjusted Net Miss Estimates
- ENI IM : Eni to Gain 90,000 B/D W/Two Mexican Fields by 2022: Reuters
- ETL FP : Eutelsat Fourth Quarter Revenue EU373.9 Mln
- FSKRS FH : Fiskars Second Quarter Revenue EU272.6 Mln
- FUR NA : Fugro First Half Adj. Ebitda Rises; Sees Growth in 2018
- GBLB BB : GBL First Half Cash Profit EU363 Mln Vs. EU359 Mln Y/Y
- G IM : Generali Appoints Cristiano Borean as New CFO From Sept. 1
- KDS NA : Kiadis Pharma Secures Up to EU20 Million Debt Financing Facility
- LGEN LN : Legal & General Is Said to Hire Law Firm for Probe: Telegraph
- MB IM : Mediobanca Pushes on Dividend as Wealth Management Bears Fruit
- MELE BB : Melexis Narrows FY Revenue View, Midpoint Beats Est.
- NOVN SW : Laekna Buys Exclusive Rights to Two Novartis Oncology Assets
- NYR BB : Nyrstar First Half Adjusted Ebitda 3.4% Above Estimates
- OSR GY : Osram 3Q Profit Beats Estimates as Automotive Hurts Divisions
- PARG SW : Pargesa First Half Net Income CHF212.6 Mln
- PST IM : Poste Italiane Names Guido Maria Nola Chief Financial Officer
- RCO FP : Remy Cointreau Share Buy-Back as Part of Capital Reduction Plan
- RNO FP : French July New Car Registrations up 18.9% on Year
- ROG SW : Astellas, Roche Sue Shilpa to Block Copies of Tarceva Drug
- RYA ID : Swedish Ryanair Pilots to Go on Strike on Aug. 10: Expressen
- SGO FP : Saint-Gobain Sells U.K. Glazing Installation Business
- SFER IM : Salvatore Ferragamo First Half Revenue 1.6% Below Estimates
- SAN FP : Sanofi Is Said to Be Stockpiling Drugs for No Deal Brexit: DJ
- SKB GY : Koenig & Bauer First Half Ebit EU10.6 Mln
- SRG IM : Snam Raises Full-Year Net Target to Around EU1b
- TKWY NA : Takeaway First Half Net Orders +30%
- TNET BB : Telenet Second Quarter Adjusted Ebitda Beats Highest Estimate Telenet Proposes Extraordinary Dividend of EU600 Mln
- TKA GY : Thyssenkrupp Adjustment of Group Forecast for FY 2017/2018
- TKA GY : Elliott Wants Thyssenkrupp to Change, Not to Break Up: Die Welt
- URW NA : Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Sells Four Shopping Centres in Spain
- VIE FP : Veolia 1H Current Net Income Up 13% at EU329M; Confirms Targets
- VOS GY : Vossloh First Half Ebit EU22.8 Mln
- VOW GY : VW Confirms Possible Recall of 124,000 Electric Cars on Cadmium
- WDP BB : WDP First Half Adjusted EPS EU2.94 Vs. EU2.67 Y/Y

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 1st of August 2018

>>> Up
* 4imprint Upgraded to Hold at Berenberg
* BHP Upgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
* DNO Upgraded to Outperform at RBC; PT 20 Kroner
* Edenred Upgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
* EDF Upgraded to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 12.80 Euros
* Peugeot Upgraded to Buy at Citi; PT Set to 31.50 Euros
* Salvatore Ferragamo Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Standard Chartered Upgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 6.70 Pounds
* Wacker Neuson Upgraded to Buy at Bankhaus Lampe

>>> Down
* Enel Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman; PT 5.25 Euros
* Hammerson Downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies
* Hexagon Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; Price Target 560 Kronor
* IMI Downgraded to Hold at Liberum
* Maersk Cut to Neutral at Goldman; Price Target 9,500 Kroner
* Molecular Medicine Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 60 Cents
* Pearson Downgraded to Neutral at Citi
* Rightmove Downgraded to Sell at Berenberg
* Sartorius Downgraded to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 111 Euros
* Worldline Downgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 53 Euros

>>> Initiation


>>> Call

>>> Apple beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus


Apple beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus

  • Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $2.34 per share, $0.16 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $2.18; revenues rose 17.3% year/year to $53.27 bln vs the $52.43 bln Capital IQ Consensus; gross margins 38.3% vs 38.3% ests and 38.5% last year (guidance 38.0-38.5%). 
  • iPhone shipments 41.3 mln vs 42 mln ests vs 41 mln last year, ASP $724 vs. $694 ests
  • iPad of 11.5 mln vs 11.2 mln ests vs 11.4 mln last year; Macs of 3.7 mln vs 4.3 mln ests vs 4.3 mln units last year.
  • Service rev +31% to $9.55 bln vs. $9.2 bln ests.
  • Americas rev +20% to $24.5 bln; Europe +14% to $12.1 bln; China +19% to $9.55 bln; Japan +7% to $3.9 bln, A-Pac +16% to $3.2 bln
  • Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $60-62 bln vs. $59.4 bln Capital IQ Consensus; gross margins of 38.0-38.5% vs 38.2% ests and 37.9% last year. 
  • "We're thrilled to report Apple's best June quarter ever, and our fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth," said Tim Cook, Apple's CEO. "Our Q3 results were driven by continued strong sales of iPhone, Services and Wearables, and we are very excited about the products and services in our pipeline." "Our strong business performance drove revenue growth in each of our geographic segments, net income of $11.5 billion, and operating cash flow of $14.5 billion," said Luca Maestri, Apple's CFO. "We returned almost $25 billion to investors through our capital return program during the quarter, including $20 billion in share repurchases."

>>> Anadarko Petroleum misses by $0.04, beats on revs


Anadarko Petroleum misses by $0.04, beats on revs (73.09   -0.63)

  • Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.54 per share, $0.04 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.58; revenues rose 21.2% year/year to $3.29 bln vs the $3.08 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Net cash provided by operating activities in 2Q18 was $1.23 billion.
  • Sales volumes of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) totaled 58 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), or an average of 637,000 BOE per day, which was at the high end of the company's second-quarter guidance.
  • Capital investments, excluding Western Gas Partners, were approximately $1.5 billion, and the company closed the quarter with $2.3 billion of cash on hand.

>>> US After Hours Summary: MOH +19%, P +12%, AAPL +3.8% are higher, w


After Hours Summary: MOH +19%, P +12%, AAPL +3.8% are higher, while CAKE -8%, MB -6%, AKAM / WLL -4% are lower following earnings/guidance:

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: MOH +19.1%, TCS +12.7%, P +12.2%, GLUU +9.8%, ZEN +9.2%, PAYC +8.9%, IQ +7.9%, SEND +7.7%, WIRE +6.3%, MTSI +4.7%, NANO +4.2%, AAPL +3.8%, NBIX +3.5% (light volume), OLN +3.4%, MDR +3.3%, BAND +3.1%, COHR +3.1%, VRSK +2.6% (ticking higher), STAG +1.9% (ticking higher), CACC +1.7% (light volume), GNW +1.5%, LADR +1.3% (light volume), NFX +1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CPB +4.3% (WSJ reporting that activist Third Point has built stake), DOCU +1.9% (to acquire SpringCM for approx. $220 mln in cash), PII +1.6% (CEO disclosed the purchase of ~3K shares worth ~$312K and 3 Directors purchased of ~9K shares worth ~$966K)

Apple (AAPL) earnings/guidance is lifting suppliers in after hours trade: LITE +2.6%, CRUS +2.4%, FNSR +2.4%, IIVI +2%, SWKS +1.5%, AVGO +1%

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: BGFV -15.5%, FTR -9.2%, CAKE -8.4%, ENPH -8.4%, ZAGG -8.4%, MB -5.6%, AKAM -3.7%, WLL -3.5%, DVN -3.4%, QUOT -1.7% (light volume), NBR -1.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: SYNA -13.2% (Dialog Semiconductor terminates discussions regarding a potential acquisition of Synaptics), TORC -5.8% (downgraded to In-line at Evercore ISI), AGNC -1.7% (announces public offering of 38 mln shares of its common stock), BXMT -1.3% (commences underwritten public offering of $6mln shares of class A common stock), ACER -1.1% (to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), VNOM -0.6% (Viper Energy Partners commences underwritten public offering of 9 mln common units, increases quarterly dividend and reports Q2 update)

>>> US Close Dow +0,43% S&P +0,49% Nasdaq +0,55% Russell +1,07%


Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Losing Streak Ahead of Apple Earnings, Fed Decision

Stocks broke a three-session losing streak on Wednesday, with industrial shares leading the charge. The major averages extended modest opening gains throughout the morning, but slipped a bit in the final stretch, closing a step below their session highs. The S&P 500 added 0.5%; the Dow climbed 0.4%; the Nasdaq rose 0.6%; and the small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 1.1%.

Reports that the U.S. and China are trying to restart trade talks helped underpin the broader market, especially the trade-sensitive industrial sector (+2.1%), which closed atop the sector standings. Investors were also paying close attention to the information technology sector (+0.3%), which was a bit erratic after tumbling for three sessions in a row, trading between -0.4% and +1.0%.

Apple's (AAPL 190.29, +0.38) earnings, which were scheduled to be released after the close, also likely contributed to tech's fickle behavior. Investors were hoping that Apple, which is the largest company in the world by market cap, can get the tech sector back on track following last week's disappointing results and guidance from social media giant Facebook (FB 172.58, +1.52).

In total, eight of eleven sectors finished in the green. The health care group (+1.0%) was a notable outperformer, helped by Pfizer (PFE 39.93, +1.34), which rallied 3.5% after reporting better-than-expected earnings and guidance. Meanwhile, in the consumer staples sector (+0.5%), Procter & Gamble (PG 80.88, +0.68) finished higher by 0.9% after also beating bottom-line estimates.

On the downside, the financial sector (-0.7%) struggled on Tuesday, cutting its July gain to 5.2% -- still much better than the S&P 500 (+3.6%). The energy sector (-0.3%) dropped amid a decline in crude prices -- WTI crude -2.0% to $68.70/bbl -- and the lightly-weighted telecom services group (-0.8%) also lagged.

In other news, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 433.66, -31.81) dropped 6.8% after reports of another food-borne illness incident in Powell, Ohio; the Bank of Japan decided to leave its ultra-loose monetary policy intact; and the Fed kicked off a two-day policy meeting in Washington.

Reviewing Tuesday's big batch of economic data, which included Personal Income, Personal Spending, and PCE Prices for June, the Employment Cost Index for Q2, the Chicago PMI for July, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for July, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May:

  • Personal income climbed 0.4% in June (consensus +0.4%) following an unrevised increase of 0.4% in May. Meanwhile, personal spending rose 0.4% in June (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) following a revised increase of 0.5% in May (from 0.2%). The PCE Price Index rose 0.1% in June (consensus +0.1%), and the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%). Year-over-year, the core PCE Price Index is up 1.9%, unchanged from the last reading.
    • The key takeaway from the Personal Income and Spending Report for June is that it didn't produce any real surprises. That means it is the type of report that should keep the Federal Reserve inclined to think that it can continue to raise interest rates.
  • The second quarter Employment Cost Index rose 0.6%, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.7%.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that wages and salaries, and benefit costs, are trending higher. That will support an inflation narrative and the thinking that the Federal Reserve will remain inclined to keep gradually raising interest rates.
  • The Chicago PMI for July hit 65.5 (consensus 62.0), up from an unrevised 64.1 in June.
    • The key takeaway from the report is the understanding that the Prices Paid Indicator hit its highest level (82.1) since September 2008, which is indicative of pipeline inflation.
  • The consumer confidence reading for July increased to 127.4 ( consensus 126.6) from the prior month's revised reading of 127.1 (from 126.4).
    • The key takeaway from the report is the Conference Board's indication that a back-to-back decline in the Expectations Index suggests consumers do not anticipate growth accelerating.
  • The Case-Shiller 20-City Index increased 6.5% in May (consensus +6.5%), and the April increase was revised to 6.7% from 6.6%.

Looking ahead, investors will receive on Wednesday the ADP Employment Change report for July, the Construction Spending report for June, the ISM Index for July, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index. In addition, the Fed will release its latest policy directive (2:00 PM ET), and July auto sales will be released throughout the day.

  • Nasdaq Composite +11.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +8.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +5.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.8% YTD