TheChek News Flow

President Trump, who rarely focuses beyond the moment before him, is starting to acknowledge the growing chance Democrats could very well win in November — and very well try to impeach him.

The big picture: A few months ago, he was scoffing at midterm consequences for him. But now Trump has heard the dire warnings from enough advisers that he’s shifting into salvation mode, sharpening his campaign rhetoric and privately contemplating life under subpoena — and the threat and reality of impeachment.

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He has already told confidants how he would run for reelection in 2020 if impeached (but not removed) by playing the victim card.

A source who’s discussed the midterms with Trump said: "He has repeated to folks that, if the Democrats impeach him, it would be a victory, politically, because it would be a complete overreach and he could exploit it and run against it in 2020."

"But this president is not interested in being an impeached president. His ego would not tolerate such a thing."

"What he's figured out is that his name is on the ballot in 2018. His name is on the ballot as it relates to 2020, but more important he realizes his name is on the ballot as it relates to what life is going to be like for the next two years."

"There were some people around him trying to make the case that control of the House didn't matter. But over time he's realized it can make all the difference in the world, both for investigations and impeachment."

In May, Trump even questioned the importance of the 2018 election:

“So, your vote in 2018 is every bit as important as your vote in 2016,” he read from a teleprompter.

“Although I’m not sure I really believe that ... I don’t know who the hell wrote that line."

Welcome to September. The president, seeing warning signseverywhere, raises the stakes to impeachment:

"We'll worry about that [impeachment] if it ever happens," Trump said in Montana. "But if it happens it's your fault because you didn't go out to vote."

- Cuts FY18 $7.25-7.55 (prior FY18 $7.45-7.75)Providing an update within its previously disclosed guidance issued July 19, 2018, based on its estimate of economic and market conditions for the second half of the year.The recent intensification of geopolitical dynamics is negatively impacting markets and currencies in some of WABCO’s regions. WABCO now expects that truck and bus production in China will deteriorate by approximately 30 percent in the second half of 2018 and 11 percent on a full year basis, compared to 2017. In addition, this is causing a slowdown in demand from Russia and Turkey.

As a result of these economic and political conditions, WABCO expects to end in the lower half of its previously issued EPS guidance for the full year 2018. WABCO estimates the impact to the second half of 2018 reported and performance EPS to be approximately $0.20, spread evenly over the third and fourth quarters. The Company will partially mitigate the effect of these market factors through cost management activities.Additionally, WABCO anticipates product engineering expenses will be more concentrated in the third quarter resulting in up to a $0.10 reported and performance EPS headwind with no impact to the full year outlook.

The third caveat is, of course, Fevertree's nutso valuation. Market cap of £4.6bn-ish, last I checked ............

12:08 pm

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.............. but against all that, we've been picking up suggestions of interest in Fevertree from potential bidders.

12:09 pm

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With those suggestions of interest taken seriously, meaning Fevertree has passed them over to its broker.

12:10 pm

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(House broker is Investec.)

12:10 pm

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One potential buyer mentioned in the mix here is PepsiCo.

12:10 pm

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Who tend to do their M&A work through Goldman, I think.

Shares fall more than 7%, pulling rival Centrica and National Grid 2% lower

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https://www.ft.com/content/0a95e870-b657-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe

SSE warned its profits for the first six months of the year would be half that of a year ago as high energy costs, lower renewables production and a drop in consumption combined to cut into the big six energy supplier’s earnings.

The company said its adjusted operating profit for the first five months of the financial year, which started in April, was around £190m lower than plan. Around half of that decline was due to higher than expected gas prices and other commodity price changes, while hotter than usual weather did for the rest.

SSE said its results for the six months to the end of September were expected “to show a significant reduction in adjusted operating profit in generation and an adjusted operating loss of around £100m in energy portfolio management [SSE’s trading business]”, dragging its wholesale business to an operating loss on its adjusted measure.

The group’s shares declined 7.7 per cent after the announcement, while shares in rival Centrica, which owns British Gas, fell 2.2 per cent and National Grid slipped 2.3 per cent.

A price cap on default tariffs proposed by the industry watchdog Ofgem last week was also expected to result in adjusted operating profit for the group’s SSE Energy Services business — which is due to be merged with Npower, Innogy’s UK retail energy arm — being “significantly lower” for the full year to the end of March than SSE had anticipated at the start of the year, the company said.

While its networks business was likely to increase earnings by a mid-single digit percentage for the full financial year, its trading business was expected to incur an adjusted operating loss of more than £300m in the year to the end of March.

“Over time, SSE’s energy portfolio management strategy will evolve to reflect its asset base and operations following the planned SSE Energy Services transaction; and also over time, higher gas, carbon and power prices will support the value of SSE’s assets,” the company said.

Chief executive Alistair Phillips-Davies said SSE’s performance over the first five months of the year had been “disappointing and regrettable.”

He said:

Stocks in Asia fell as investors assessed the outlook for global growth with no end in sight for trade tensions. Oil prices jumped as a potentially devastating hurricane headed for the American east coast.

Equities declined in all major Asian markets, with Hong Kong shares consolidating after sliding into a bear market. Futures signaled a muted start for stocks in London. Two-year Treasury yields pulled back after hitting a decade high, as the U.S. sold debt and federal funds futures showed investors increasingly expecting two more rate hikes by year-end. Ten-year Treasury yields pared their advance toward 3 percent and the dollar steadied.

US After Hours FARM -4.7% following earnings/guidance, FOMX +52% on Phase 3 clinical trial update

Nikkei -0.27% Hang Seng +0.02% CSI -0.40% Shanghai -0.06% Shenzen -0.08%

Eur$ 1.1591 CNH 6.8807 CNY 6.8688 JPY 111.58 GBP 1.3006 CHF 0.9737 TRY 6.4410 WTI$ 69.93 +0.98%

S&P +0.05% EuroStoxx +0.21% FTSE +0.21% Dax +0.33% SMI +0.29%

Macro :

- Salvini Says Italy Budget Will Respect EU’s 3% Deficit Limit

- Oil Stocks May Extend Gains As WTI, Brent Continue to Rise

- Nouy Says Consolidation Needed to Boost EU Banks Profitability

- European Stocks Face a Gloomy Outlook Into Year-End: Macro View

Keep an eye on :

- AMS LN : Advanced Medical First Half Revenue GBP47.6 Mln

- ATL IM : Italy May Delay Autostrade Concession Revocation: Stampa

- BYG LN : Big Yellow to Raise GBP67m in Stock Placing to Fund Expansion

- CMBN LN : Cambian Group First Half Revenue GBP105.2 Mln

- COFB BB : Cofinimmo Buys German Nursing Home for EU19m at Yield of ~6%

- DBK GY : Axiom Loses Bid to Certify Class in Suit Against Deutsche Bank

- DTE GY : FCC Pauses Review of T-Mobile’s Sprint Merger

- DNLM FP : Dunelm Full Year Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates

- DMP GY : Dermapharm Sees Full Year Sales +20% To +25%

- EOAN GY : EON Estimates, PT Cut as Headwinds Build: Morgan Stanley

- SFER IM : Ferragamo Is Said Approached by PE, May Explore Sale: DealRep

- FCA IM : Fiat Chrysler’s Bid to Block Mahindra Vehicles to Be Probed

- FRE GY : Akorn/Fresenius Ruling Not Likely in Coming Days: Deutsche Bank

- GFRD LN : Galliford Try Full Year Revenue Meets Estimates

- GLPG NA : Gilead, Galapagos: Filgotinib Meets Endpoints in Phase 3 Study

- HSBA LN : HSBC to Add Asia Private Banking Staff by 2/3 in 5 Years: Rtrs

- RMS FP : Hermes Reports Record Profitability in First-Half

- HOFI SS : Hoist Finance Offering Prices 8.12m Shares at SEK70/Share

- H24 GY : Home24 First Half Revenue EU151 Mln

- IPH FP : Innate Pharma Enrolled First Patient For IPH5401 Phase I Trial

- INDT SS : Indutrade CEO Says Company Reviewing Margin Target: DI

- ITX SM : Inditex First Half Ebit 1.1% Below Estimates

- JUST LN :(Panmure Gordon says co. may conclude best option is to be part of a bigger group)

- LR FP : Legrand Confirms Office Inspection Took Place Sept. 6

- LIN GY : Linde/PX China Review Longer Than Expected: Cap Forum (Sept. 10)

- MITRA BB : Mithra Signs Pact for Estelle With Richter for Up to EU55m

- MRW LN : U.K. Law Firm Targets Morrison Supermarket in Equal Pay Claim

- REP SM : Repsol Seals Contract to Buy Up to EU4B of LNG: El Economista

- SAFE LN : Safestore Third Quarter Revenue GBP36.4 Mln

- SAN FP : Sanofi, Regeneron Get April 28 Pdufa on Praluent Heart Benefits

- SHP LN : Shire’s Veyvondi Gets EU Marketing Authorization for Adult Use

- SPSN SW : Swiss Prime Site Plans CHF330m Capital Increase

- TIFS LN : TI Fluid Share Sale by BC Omega Holdco Raises GBP157.2m

- UBER IPO : Uber Accused of Saving $500 Million a Year by Cheating Drivers

- UBSN SW : UBS’s Blessing Says Global Trade War Weighs on China: Reuters

- VAO GY : Vapiano 1H Sales Increase 14%; Adj. Ebitda, Margin Fall

- FHZN SW : Zurich Airport Aug. Traffic 3.1 Mln Passengers, up 5.5%

- ZEAL DC : Zealand Pharma Can Now Focus on Proprietary Treatments: MS