Iranians will not risk peace in order to make a political point
Many fear their country could turn into another Syria if the system collapses
History is repeating itself for Iran’s pro-democracy forces. Whenever they are positioned to make meaningful changes, the US corners them and they lose ground to hardliners.
It is still thrilling for me to remember the aspirations of young voters campaigning for President Hassan Rouhani, who won a landslide victory in May last year. They had hoped that the re-election of a centrist politician would send a message to Donald Trump that Iranians supported the 2015 nuclear accord and favoured detente with the US. Right or wrong, the majority of those voters chose not to give up on the goal of reforming the current system and to ignore the frightening alternatives.
But the US president withdrew from the nuclear accord last May, striking a big blow to Mr Rouhani, who found himself stuck with fresh economic and political challenges as a result of renewed US sanctions. The value of Iran’s currency, the rial, has fallen sharply this year and the US is set to reimpose oil and banking sanctions on November 4, which will cut the nation’s economic lifeline.
November 4 will be the 39th anniversary of the day in 1979 when Iranian revolutionaries took 52 US diplomats hostage in Tehran, partly to protest at US interference in the country. Alongside that, today both reformists and many ordinary Iranians see the imposition of oil sanctions against Iran as a modern version of the 1953 military coup, when the US helped royalists overthrow the democratically elected government of Mohammad Mossadegh and stop the nationalisation of the country’s oil industry.
Hardliners find the US’s newly hostile approach a godsend. Many people have lost hope in reforms and a prosperous future. Some threaten never to vote again. If this mood persists, hardliners can count on a low turnout to help them win the next parliamentary and presidential polls in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Conspiracy theorists say this is the outcome that hawks in Washington and rival regional countries favour.
In the years under Mohammad Khatami, a former reformist president who ruled from 1997-2005, western diplomats in Tehran saw his desperate attempts to secure a nuclear deal as part of a fake power struggle: Iranian politicians were all parts of the same theocratic system, they told me.
Back then, while Europe watched passively, the US called Iran part of the “axis of evil”. Reformists lost the presidential election to Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, and hardliners boasted of big nuclear and regional achievements.
But this time, European nations realise the dire consequences of the US approach to a rare security deal in the volatile Middle East. Now, European states are respectful of Iran’s commitment to the nuclear accord while remaining critical of its regional and defence policies. Perhaps the US did not foresee this approach.
It may be too early to tell how Europe’s resistance is going to affect Iran’s domestic affairs. But thanks to Europe’s approach, I’ve noticed signs of relative calm. Mr Rouhani sounds more confident that his government may not bow to US pressure.
Iran’s president accuses Washington of seeking to bring about a regime change through “ economic war” and “media war”. But there is a feeling in Tehran that the Americans may have relied too much on fomenting public dissent as a way to encourage fundamental changes.
It is true that people regularly stage street protests and chant anti-regime slogans. Big demonstrations can happen — as they did in December, when people called for the arrival of a secular “Iranian republic”.
But both Iran’s political leaders and its people are going through a complicated transition period to open up the country and rid it of some of its ideological and historical baggage.
Saeed Laylaz, a reformist and expert on political economy, says that while the Republic’s officials may be ready to step down, “it is the people who are determined not to let the system collapse”. Indeed, many Iranians fear US policies could turn their country into another Syria instead of helping them weather the storm safely.
Perhaps America’s current leaders should re-read Iran’s history and this time learn a different lesson. Iranians love peace and will not readily risk their security, even though they may feel disillusioned now.