>>> US Close +0.68% S&P +0.63% Nasdaq +0.64% Russell +0.55%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Gain in Broad-Based Advance on Election Day

The S&P 500 added 0.6% for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, as investors awaited results from the U.S. congressional midterm elections. It was a largely broad-based performance, as all 11 S&P sectors finished in positive territory.

Also, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.6%.

The stock market opened flat but perhaps found strength from reports indicating that the market has performed well in midterm election years that resulted in a divided Congress. Though results will not be made clear until the early hours, most polls show the Democrats regaining control of the House, while Republicans are expected to retain majority control of the Senate. 

Positive trade chatter from China also contributed to Tuesday's gains, with China's Vice President Wang Qishan reiterating China's readiness to discuss a trade resolution with the United States. Likewise, the trade-sensitive materials (+1.5%) and industrial (+1.1%) sectors led the broader market higher. 

In earnings, results were mostly positive with CVS (CVS 77.90, +4.21) climbing 5.7% after it reported above-consensus profits. Eli Lilly (LLY 105.90, -4.24) also beat earnings estimates but lost 3.9%, while Booking Holdings (BKNG 1949.46, +78.34) gained 4.2% despite missing earnings estimates. Booking's results were above its prior guidance, though. Also, an honorable mention goes to health care company Mylan N.V. (MYL 36.43, +5.06) after it surged 16.1% after it reported better-than-expected earnings.

Separately, WTI crude dropped 1.5% to settle at $62.19/bbl after U.S. President Donald Trump granted temporary waivers on Monday to eight countries that import oil from Iran. The decision fueled an already weakening oil market that has seen crude prices decline nearly 20.0% from its recent four-year high in October. Despite the drop in crude, the oil-sensitive energy sector ticked higher by 0.3%, although it was down as much as 0.8% intraday.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields inched higher with the 2-yr yield adding two basis points to 2.92% and the 10-yr yield increasing one basis point to 3.21%. Yields have been gradually reascending to multi-year highs after declining at the end of October. Also, the U.S. Dollar Index remained unchanged at 96.30.

In Europe, the major indices closed on a lower note with the Euro Stoxx 50 losing 0.3%. UK's FTSE led the decline with a loss of 0.9%.

Reviewing Tuesday's sole economic report, the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September:

  • The September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings decreased to 7.009 million from a revised 7.293 million (from 7.136 million) in August.

Looking ahead, investors will receive the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index and the Consumer Credit report for September on Wednesday.

  • Nasdaq Composite +6.9% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.7% YTD
  • S&P 500 +3.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +1.3% YTD

CNBC : Telecom gear provider CommScope is near a deal to acquire Arris for more

Telecom gear provider CommScope is near a deal to acquire Arris for more than $5.6 billion
  • Commscope could announce a deal to acquire set-top box manufacturer Arris as soon as tomorrow.
  • A deal will value Arris at more than $31-per-share, or more than $5.6 billion.
Telecoms infrastructure company CommScope is nearing a deal to buy complementary telecom gear provider Arris for more than $31 a share, according to people familiar with the matter.

A deal would give CommScope more scale with a more diversified product base, while it would provide an exit for Arris as fewer customers watch traditional TV from set-top boxes, a major part of its business.

The all-cash transaction could be announced as soon as tomorrow, the people said, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private. A deal hasn't been signed and could still fall apart, the people said.

A transaction would more than double the size of CommScope, whose market capitalization is $4.8 billion. CommScope plans to finance the deal, the people said. Arris has a market value of about $4.5 billion, and at $31 per share, Arris would have an equity valuation of $5.6 billion, plus about $1.6 billion in net debt.

CommScope makes telecommunications equipment, including cables, splitters and antennas, and will gain a cable TV set-top box maker in Arris, which nearly doubled in size in 2016 after buying rival Pace for $2.1 billion. Set-top boxes make up about 35 percent of Arris's total revenue. The company also makes other telecom networking equipment for wireless and cable operators.

Reuters initially reported the companies were in talks last month.

Spokesmen for Arris and CommScope declined to comment.

(Business Of Fashion) Zalando Seeks to Counter Return Problems and Smaller Order

Zalando Seeks to Counter Return Problems and Smaller Orders
Europe’s biggest online fashion retailer is working to counteract a fall in average order size after it reported the slowest sales growth since launching a decade ago.

BERLIN, Germany — Zalando, Europe's biggest online-only fashion retailer, is working to counteract a fall in average order size and to ensure more returned goods are resold after it reported the slowest sales growth since it was launched a decade ago.

Facing rising competition from e-commerce players like Amazon.com and chains like H&M, Zalando cut its 2018 outlook for a second time in as many months in October due to the unusually long, hot summer, sending its shares tumbling.

Shares in Zalando, which have fallen by a quarter in the last year, were 6.4 percent lower at €32.19 by 10:14 GMT, making them the biggest decliners on the German MDAX index .

"Weaker sales growth versus consensus and continued deterioration in basket economics will disappoint," said UBS analyst Andrew Hughes, who rates Zalando "sell."

Third-quarter sales rose 12 percent to €1.2 billion ($1.37 billion), missing average analyst forecasts for €1.22 billion, and well below the 20 to 25 percent annual growth it has targeted for years.

In contrast, British rival ASOS last month met its full-year sales growth forecasts and reported a 28 percent rise in pretax profit, flagging years of double-digit sales growth to come and propelling its shares higher.

About half of the products Zalando sells are returned, with most of them processed and resold.

Zalando reported a quarterly adjusted loss before interest and taxation of €39 million, which it blamed on a slow start to sales of colder weather clothing, as well as rising fulfilment costs and problems with how it handles returns.

Returns


Previous changes to the handling of returned goods that needed to be ironed or repaired resulted in fewer of them being refurbished, an issue that has since been resolved, co-CEO Rubin Ritter told journalists.

Zalando said profitability was also hit by a 7 percent fall in average order size to €57.50, despite efforts to bolster orders by adding beauty products to its range in the hope that customers would add a lipstick when they buy a dress.

The company is taking steps to try to increase the profitability of smaller orders, including making size recommendations to reduce the likelihood of returns, and trialling a minimum order value of €25 in Italy, Ritter said.

He does not yet know if Zalando will extend that to other markets, as some analysts have recommended.

Higher transport costs and investments in logistics also weighed, although Zalando trimmed its expectation for capital expenditure for 2018 to €300 million, from a previous €350 million, as projects are spread over a longer period of time.

Ritter said Zalando planned a new centralised warehouse to process shipments of garments from brands before they are sent to regional centres for delivery to customers, as it seeks to increase the efficiency of its logistics network.

WWD : Brunello Cucinelli Touts Record Year, Sees Potential in Men’s Wear

Brunello Cucinelli Touts Record Year, Sees Potential in Men’s Wear
Revenues rose 8.3 percent in the first nine months and the entrepreneur was upbeat about the rest of the year and 2019.

MILAN — Brunello Cucinelli defined 2018 as a “record” year on Tuesday.
Discussing his namesake company’s sales in the first nine months of the year, which grew 8.3 percent to 422.1 million euros, compared with 389.9 million euros in the same period last year, Cucinelli said he expected double-digit growth in revenues for the full year.
During a call with analysts at the end of trading on the Milan Bourse, Cucinelli, who is chairman and chief executive officer of the luxury company, said he also expected “more than proportional” earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and profits. Based on the positive performance of the brand’s winter collections and the orders for next summer, he expected double-digit growth in 2019.


Cucinelli was upbeat about the growth in all relevant markets in the nine months ended Sept. 30 and said he did not see any slowdown in China, “on the contrary,” echoing peers such as Gucci and Moncler. “It will be the market of the future, this is the century of China,” he contended. In the period, revenues in Greater China grew 29.2 percent to 38.1 million euros, accounting for 9 percent of the total, lifted by the increasingly sophisticated Chinese consumer, said Cucinelli, appreciative of Italian craftsmanship and special items, with a growing focus on a no-logo offering.
The company is looking to sell online in China by mid-2019, and is evaluating a partner to this end. Asked by one analyst if he had considered partnering with Alibaba, Cucinelli said he could not respond yet and expressed his belief in “true, absolute luxury,” as his main guideline.
“We have just come back from several trips around the world and we are now back with renewed, great confidence in our country. Abroad there is still strong admiration for our culture, our handcrafted products, and our ability to find the best and beautiful side in all things,” said Cucinelli. “Maintaining the quality of products that the world expects from us will be increasingly important. This will be the future for our company: preserving the harmony of places and people we are renowned for; maintaining the creativity, craftsmanship and exclusivity acknowledged to us by experts and customers; designing fresh, modern and contemporary collections of very high standing, representing the true essence of luxury.”
Cucinelli repeatedly insisted on adding freshness to men’s wear, which still has “a lot of possibilities,” he said.
“I don’t accept the idea that men’s wear is suffering — it’s just that there is a need for a fresher product,” said Cucinelli, adding that businessmen still need suits, but that these must be adjusted with modern details. “And they need someone to advise them. You don’t know how many wives of rich men ask us to help their husbands to wear clothes that look fresher.”
Speaking of a recent trip to Silicon Valley, “an unforgettable experience,” as part of the speech he gave at the “Dreamforce Conference” in San Francisco, Cucinelli said he met Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and talked for two hours, noting that Bezos was not wearing a hoodie but a jacket without a tie. “He asked me for [wardrobe] advice,” said Cucinelli. Likewise, he said he attended a dinner with 19 wealthy young men there, who all wore jackets. This led Cucinelli to speak of the sartorial service he recently launched in 25 stores and that he would like to expand, with young tailors offering wardrobe suggestions to customers.


Cucinelli said online sales account for around 10 percent of the total globally, including the web sites of multibrand retailers, and said he expects the amount of smaller multibrand online platforms to increase as more physical stores open worldwide, citing the growth of banners in China as an example.
In the nine months, sales in Italy were up 5.5 percent to 74.4 million euros, representing 17.6 percent of the total, lifted by local and tourist spending.
Revenues in Europe rose 9.7 percent to 127.4 million euros, representing 30.2 percent of the total, lifted by all relevant markets and a positive tourist trend, with an increased presence of Chinese customers, and those arriving from other parts of the world.
Growth continued in North America, which was up 3.3 percent to 135.7 million euros, representing 32.2 percent of the total, boosted by both the monobrand and multibrand channels and the consolidated relationships with leading luxury department stores.
Sales in the Rest of the World area grew 9.5 percent to 46.6 million euros, representing 11 percent of the total.
The retail monobrand channel grew 6.8 percent to 206.1 million euros, representing 48.8 percent of the total.
The company had 100 boutiques at the end of September, with two openings in the first nine months of 2018, in addition to the four conversions to the wholesale monobrand channel of the two Singapore boutiques in June and the Saint Petersburg and Copenhagen boutiques in July.
Sales of the wholesale monobrand channel grew 11.2 percent to 24.2 million euros, with 27 boutiques, including four conversions to the direct channel and the opening at the prestigious Dubai Mall in the first quarter of 2018. The wholesale multibrand channel grew 9.5 percent to 191.8 million euros.
In the next two years, Cucinelli expects investments of between 7 and 8 percent of sales.
He spoke of the event he held in Solomeo, home to the company’s headquarters, in September, which was attended by 500 journalists, saying he counted 129 interviews in the month. On that occasion, Cucinelli presented the conclusion of a project unveiled in December 2014 and carried through by the Brunello and Federica Cucinelli Foundation, which sees the restoration of the outskirts of Solomeo. Cucinelli recovered 173 acres of land near his manufacturing plant and tore down six old industrial buildings, planting vineyards, olive trees, sunflowers and wheat, among other things, building a monument in travertine as a tribute to human dignity and a wine cellar, with a statue of Bacchus placed at the entrance. Spirituality is so evident in Solomeo, Cucinelli said, that he decided to call the town the “Hamlet of the Spirit.

WWD : Antoine Arnault on Millennials, Respect and Luxury

Antoine Arnault on Millennials, Respect and Luxury
The Berluti ceo dispelled the myth that digital natives would be radically different from the humanity that came before them.
By Lisa Lockwood on November 6, 2018

Antoine Arnault, chief executive officer of Berluti, doesn’t feel Millennials’ tastes, ideas and purchasing practices pose a threat to the luxury business. In fact, he believes they want similar things to previous generations: Creative, durable, desirable and beautiful products.
Addressing the idea that digital natives would be radically different from those that came before them, and purveyors would have to decipher their strange habits like an occult code, Arnault said, “Frankly, I’m not so sure of it, and I wouldn’t shake our traditions too soon, dispose of all our stores, stop advertising in print magazines, and design only T-shirts or sneakers because we have to attract Millennials.”


Arnault explained that LVMH’s maisons date back to the 18th or 19th century. Over the years, they have had to adapt to technological innovations and to cultural changes that occurred, and they had through creativity to find a “suitable mix between their strong heritage and the new demands or fashions that came up decades after decades.” Arnault said their mission has been to make sure that the maisons are able to remain at the cutting edge of fashion without being “cornered in dead ends: non-diversified product portfolio, non-diversified customer base, non-diversified geographical mix.”
“Christian Dior, Louis Vuitton and Fendi are good examples of brands continuously and profitably broadening their audiences. We manage longevity,” said Arnault.
Arnault said that’s why he criticizes a bit of the concept of Millennials, “which sounds to me more like something crafted by press or consulting firms, like a werewolf we would need to thrill a market situation that is for years exempt of any serious threat.”
He questioned whether Millennials have specific requests and will they have the same requests when they’re 30, 40 and 50 years old? He asked, “Will the generation that will come after the Millennials have requests similar with what Millennials currently require from our brands? Do we have to reshuffle all things for their sake?”
According to Arnault, LVMH brands naturally feel the changes and adapt to them without having to overdramatize them. “Our designers naturally feel — I would rather say naturally anticipate — these changes. When you look at Hedi Slimane, Virgil Abloh, Maria Grazia Chiuri, Kris Van Assche, Kim Jones, Jonathan Anderson, you clearly perceive that the designers are not lagging behind social and cultural changes, but are true major actors of this change,” he said.
As ceo of Berluti and a “privileged observer” of new trends in the luxury market for almost 20 years, Arnault said he’s happy to see that the main demand drivers remain the same. “Millennials want creative, durable, desirable and beautiful products. But they do add a new criterion: Respect. It is not only for me the way to honor the late Aretha Franklin, but it’s a true personal belief,” said Arnault.
Breaking down the concept of respect, he said he has personally engaged his luxury brands to respect the natural proportions of the human body “and not to reshape our natural silhouette by artificial conceptions of thinness or beauty.” Further, he spoke about respecting the environment and becoming increasingly conscious of the impact of one’s activities. “This is a very long process, but we are all conscious that we have to preserve over the long term the resources we enjoyed in the past. We are now all driven by the necessity to be sure that the future life will be at least as happy as ours; we will have failed if we cannot ensure for the future generations as much happiness as we enjoyed ourselves.”


Another aspect is respect of the company’s heritage. “We have received a heritage of craftsmanship, of aesthetics, of taste, of identity,” said Arnault. “Our brands have the duty to preserve and perpetuate it,” he said. “At Berluti, we manufacture wonderfully successful sneakers, which I’m very proud of, but I don’t forget the duty we have to cultivate the prestige of Venezia leather bespoke shoes, because this unique know-how that does not exist anywhere else,” he said.
Further, he discussed the respect of quality and “honest value” of the product. “A product can be expensive since it is perfectly designed and manufactured. In an era of instant communication, a flawed or non-perfect product creates immediate bad buzz. At LVMH, our chief digital officer Ian Rogers is our internal alert on this point: digital information actually creates higher quality,” he said.
Arnault also noted there’s a respect of transparency. “We today are able to partner with organizations that share our values and our very ethically demanding requirements. We are increasingly conscious that our teams and our customers require from companies a full range of good practices; good raw material supply, suppliers having the same policies as we have, respect of freedom and human values, transparency on ingredients,” he said.
Finally, he said that when young people come to work at their brands, they don’t come only as pure workforce “but with their culture, their diversity, their creativity, their entrepreneurship, their social or environmental commitments, their wishes for the planet or the society as a whole.”
“They want us to help them leave a positive footprint on people and nature. We at LVMH take this very seriously into account. For a group like LVMH, retaining talents also means convincing them that they will, within our maisons, have the best position to serve their ideals. With the internal global entrepreneurship program DARE, LVMH gathers and promotes every project coming from our teams. You will not be surprised to hear me say that, most of the time, these projects tackle environmental issues,” said Arnault.
He said that the question is not whether to decipher new codes or not. “There is no such radical change that would urge us to do so. However there is a demand of respect that we hear growing in new generations that we happily and sincerely share. New generations ask luxury brands to be more accessible, to be easier to understand, to let them be deciphered, decoded. The era of occult brands is definitely over. We want doors to remain open,” said Arnault.
Following his prepared remarks, Arnault had a conversation with Miles Socha, editor in chief of WWD, spanning men’s wear at LVMH, streetwear, Loro Piana and digital information.
Discussing whether digital information actually creates higher quality, Arnault said, “I see it as an open source. Whenever you put any product on the market now, you have instantly thousands of comments. Sometimes people do an autopsy on the product.” He said that any little change in the know-how will be out there in the open. “You can not cheat that customer. Not that we want to. If you think it’s simpler to make it this way or it’s almost the same leather, let’s use it, that doesn’t work. They make us do better products,” he said.
Arnault spoke about future generations and whether or not they will be as interested in the legacy, savoir faire and back story of the LVMH brands, considering their attention spans are getting shorter and shorter. “Not only do I believe it, but see it already. Those young Millennials like the high cycle of fashion, they like when it’s golden and has a little bit of logo and it gets your attention. When they ask questions to the sales assistant, they ask about heritage, about longevity, about where the brands come from,” said Arnault. He said that they understand it costs a lot of money and they want to spend it on something with a history. “If on top of that, if it has this little touch of fashion, of an edge, they’ll love it. You see brands without this incredible buzz effect that are doing very well right now. I’m chairman of Loro Piana and you can’t say it’s extremely visible or extremely buzzy, but it’s doing extremely well,” said Arnault.
He anticipates when this cycle of very glitzy fashion dissipates, these customers will gravitate toward Loro Piana, “brands that promote simple, beautiful cuts and extremely durable products and beautiful fabrics.”
Arnault was questioned about the Open Doors event which attracted 180,000 people, showing how strong the interest is in how things are made. The event has no commercial purpose, so Arnault was asked how can he tell it’s doing its job. “We couldn’t and it’s not really the point,” he said. “It’s almost opening up to non-clients. The interactions are incredible. You see people, little girls, teenagers, old ladies, old men who didn’t have access to this behind-the scenes of luxury and who ask incredibly straight-to-the-point questions.”
When some people suggest they could have a little pop-up there, he said it’s not the place to do commerce since they do commerce 362 days a year.
He noted that people are proud to work for such brands as Berluti, Fendi and Dior, and socially in France it’s one of the biggest employers. “We’re not ashamed to be successful in the way we conduct business,” said Arnault.
When told that LVMH is clearly betting on the men’s market and asked what underscores his confidence in this sector, Arnault said, “I’ve been confident for a quite a few years now.” He said they started this project in 2012 and its been growing ever since. Berluti has opened 55 stores and they’re performing really well.
“We’ve had a chance to develop from a brand that had a heritage and had real aficionados loving the shoes and the leather goods. We tried to expand it to make a real silhouette and propose men’s wear.” He said men want to spend their money too. “Let’s try to create within the group one of the biggest luxury men’s wear brands in the world.” He said that LVMH has not only invested in Berluti, but in all the other men’s brands such as Dior and Louis Vuitton. “Virgil [Abloh] of course has arrived at Louis Vuitton and in my opinion, proposed one of the most exciting fashion shows of the past few years. “Last week he opened his pop-up store in London, and I don’t think there’s a product left after 48 hours,” he said.
Arnault noted that Louis Vuitton and Virgil Abloh in men’s wear are extremely well positioned to speak to that customer who wants something a little bit edgy. “Virgil proposes that and is the best to design it. Also you shouldn’t forget that many of the products in the store’s permanent collections are shapes and products that have been made for decades and they continue to perform well. This balance between permanent and seasonal is extremely important for extremely big brands like Louis Vuitton to continue to grow,” said Arnault.
Arnault spoke about how they shuffle the creative deck in men’s wear and was asked whether men’s wear is becoming more like women’s wear, which is driven by fashion and newness.
“I didn’t do it myself. It’s a whole group of people. It’s a very important decision to put the faith of one of your brands, however big it is, into the hands of a designer,” said Arnault. “You really need to strategically think it through and understand where he’s going to go and understand how the ceo or the marketing team is going to be able to deal with him. I love working with creative talent. I didn’t always succeed, but it’s very enriching. I feel this balance between the heritage of the brand and its newness appeal will be the key to success,” he said. He noted that even when one looks at Abloh’s show, it can look completely new and completely different than the clothing before, but it’s always respectful of the brand. “There’s always a twist that will remind the customer that he is at Vuitton, and I don’t mean a big logo, but something around travel or the heritage of the brand that makes it relevant. The customer feels when he’s being taken for a fool.”
With streetwear becoming a big force in the industry and infiltrating luxury, Arnault was questioned whether he sees it as a passing trend, or a structural shift.
“It doesn’t really matter. We’re embracing it. Even traditional brands like Berluti are embracing it, and we propose sneakers.” He said some designers are extremely linked to streetwear, like Abloh, and he’s doing it well. “Kris [Van Assche] at Berluti understands its appeal right now, it’s less in his DNA to make it. He understands it very well. He’s a designer who understands the importance of catering to what the customer wants today. It’s not really important whether I think it’s a long-term shift. It’s important if the designer thinks it is,” said Arnault.
Arnault said that nudging Loro Piana into the wider consciousness is paying off. “I’m not responsible for it. I just took care of basically integrating it inside the LVMH Group for the first couple of years.” They found people who were Italian and had the time and right taste to actually take it further. Arnault acknowledged that the brand is a little bit under the radar, but it’s gotten a little higher profile since LVMH took over with campaigns that started creating awareness. “The customers of Loro Piana like the fact that it’s a bit of a hidden gem,” he said. He added that even though the brand has big stores on the big avenues, the stores are a little empty and you have sales associates to yourself for an hour or two. “That’s how the Loro Piana customer wants to shop. It’s one of those brands that will continue to grow, maybe not like 50 to 80 percent, but it will continue to grow like a beautiful big yacht. I feel as a shareholder much safer to be on a beautiful yacht than a little jet ski, especially if a storm arrives,” he said.
When an audience member asked how he deals with creative personalities and what he’s learned from that, Arnault said, “It’s mostly a question of fit between the ceo and the designer. I try to have an extremely long dialogue and a frequent dialogue with the designer…You have to manage your speech and measure every word. They’re very sensitive guys or girls. They have a talent that we don’t and we have a talent they don’t. Sometimes it can be a very good marriage.”
Finally, when asked by an audience member when you know it’s time to change and when it’s time to hold back, Arnault said, “You don’t. You have to take that risk. In our group, we’ve been big risk takers. It started in 1997 when my father decided to name John Galliano the head of Dior. I was still young, but I was starting to get an interest in this world. There was a panic, what is he doing? He’s crazy. It became one of the biggest successes…It is a very important decision. We do have to base ourselves on a gut meeting. You have to speak to the designers. My sister, Delphine, is very close to them and involved in those decisions. We are all making the decisions together. They are very important ones, and we measure the importance of them via the short, medium and long-term future of our brands.”

WWD : Virgil Abloh Thinks Streetwear Can Be a Trap

Virgil Abloh Thinks Streetwear Can Be a Trap
Abloh credits his success to defying convention and being in constant communication with his customer.
By Aria Hughes on November 6, 2018

Virgil Abloh used the term zigzag often during his appearance at WWD’s Apparel and Retail CEO Summit. It describes how he’s climbed the ladder in fashion to launch his own line, Off-White, and land the artistic director position at Louis Vuitton men’s. Streetwear was how he got his foot in the door — the zig — but once he got inside he’s pushed himself past the confines of “streetwear designer” — the zag.
So far, the element of surprise, along with balancing his many other creative jobs, is working and he’s not looking to disrupt the industry as much as he wants to evolve it. In a conversation with WWD’s editor in chief Miles Socha, Abloh spoke about the sustainability of streetwear, how he avoids clichés, and what younger customers are looking for that most luxury brands don’t offer.


WWD: You trained as an architect, so you are an outsider of sorts to fashion design. Has this helped you to break rules and what principles do you bring from architecture?
Virgil Abloh: I first studied civil engineering at the University of Wisconsin at Madison and then architecture at the Illinois Institute of Technology. But I would say my sort of education started well before that. It started with being passionate about culture. So I was very involved in how pop culture manifests itself because that dictates what the world will shape into the next five, 10, 15 years. So more of my approach was to combine these sort of higher education things that I was learning in a very practical field like engineering and a figurative field like architecture, but giving those two-thirds of a component. And one-third is my upbringing and what I could understand from the existing pop culture world. Those three things made a petri dish to do anything and I chose fashion because I believed that it was an industry that connected all of the disciplines and many more.
WWD: Do you see streetwear as a passing trend or an enduring movement?
V.A.: The world evolves and I think an industry was, in my mind, caught blind by thinking that these existing trends and existing metrics had no variable of return and just stayed the same. So my interest in fashion was how can I evolve this system. Disrupt is a word that often gets used when associated with something new. I always akin it to an earthquake. Tectonic plates need to move in order to have an event, and I have just focused on what’s a way to create an event that pays respect to the history of fashion and even the years before I could partake. And the buzzword now is called streetwear. I think it’s a little bit of a term that’s a trap. It’s sort of seen as an ingredient that you just sprinkle on anything, but more what it means in the practical sense is clothing that people wear on the street. Fashion started as a thing in a Parisian fashion house like Cristobal Balenciaga or Yves Saint Laurent. They make a silhouette and they make couture clothing. That’s just the order of a 50-year-old idea. Then Yves Saint Laurent and others start this thing called ready-to-wear that’s not for a select few but for a select moment. They were clothes that were linked to couture but more widespread. So when I was starting about 10 years ago, it was apparent that there was this upswell of interest in fashion that wasn’t trickling down from top tiers and using the already occurring trends and already occurring clothes. After the collections distill down into what people are buying from the stores, there is a new ready-to-wear and that’s how I think about streetwear, even though the term takes a little bit of a left from what it is.


The way I see it, it’s no longer a top-down strategy. It’s not brands saying this is what the trend is. The customer, especially in my field, can thumbs up and thumb down your brand in two seconds. I think the key word is relevancy. If something is relevant it’s already occurring on the street, you see it. You see a passion for it. For example, Supreme right now probably has a line that’s four blocks long around it versus a luxury store just a few blocks away might not have anyone in it. When the brand is sort of communicating relevant things you are going to see a major sort of engagement. But it’s not a figurative thing that can be designed into products or designed into campaigns.
WWD: You mentioned you’re shooting your first campaign for Louis Vuitton. Who is the photographer?
V.A.: Just your question in itself is a traditional notion. You are already making an assumption that someone either unknown or notable is the crux of the campaign, and I decided to think about the most relevant way to communicate the message. And the success of it comes through a zigzag. So my campaign will have a dialogue against the whole industry that has traditionally used campaigns as a way to message what the campaigns are about. The practical answer is I have four different photographers shooting four different concepts. Some digital. Some traditional. It’s reanalyzing the idea of what a whole campaign is and I would link that to streetwear.
WWD: Your last Off-White show had a lot of ballgowns and Vuitton had a lot of suits and coats. Are you ready for fashion to move in a more formal question?
V.A.: When I was starting, I was very much to the left. Formality was at the root of what high fashion was, and I said to make a name for myself, I’m not going to wave a magic wand and speak from that perspective. I’m going to speak from the perspective of what I was as a 17-year-old kid and what I saw from these brands that I could relate to. So largely here in New York in SoHo or the Lower East Side it was the epicenter of streetwear, which was like graphic T-shirts. It was sort of ready-made like in art principles. We were making fashion based on what we could get a hold of. And there is a whole dialogue that could be a separate panel on how young people could make clothes. You could find a screen printer. You could find a blank garment and you could make your own brand. It’s very different if you are in Italy. You can go to a factory and get garments cut and sewn.
When I started, I was showing in Paris and I was perplexed because me and my colleagues like Alessandro [Michele] from Gucci or Demna [Gvasalia] from Balenciaga, we come from the same perspective from different parts of the globe. Italian, Eastern European and for me American. So for us, jeans and a hooded sweatshirt is what we see on the streets so we would put it on the runway. It was organic. But then over time, the whole zigzag mentality is, once it became more normal for high-fashion brands to show a graphic T-shirt on the runway, then I’m interested in exploring how fashion could be formal again because I have this air that I’m the streetwear guy. To me it’s more interesting to make formalwear in a new spirit. What’s the new tailored jacket? What’s the new suit? I’d love to wear a suit if it related to this new lifestyle that exists in 2018 and 2019.
WWD: You also curate art exhibits, design furniture and DJ. Why do you do all of these extra things? How does your DJ career feed your fashion and vice versa?
V.A.: Well one thing I believe, and this is sort of like a message to bring to this community that we have, is that Millennials is like a buzzword, but the different silos are mini prisons. Culture exists because it’s a merger. It’s an ecosystem that one thing changes the other. So I prefer to exist and contribute to the larger ecosystem. Fashion is just one small silo that dictates the pop culture that exists. So for me I don’t think of it as a novelty. I’m a creative. So the way I see it I can have a suggestion on a painting to use in an exhibit, or on runway set design and the soundtrack, or on the campaign. It’s more of an old architecture principle. Maybe from the Bauhaus era. It’s about total design. So I approach this new time knowing how much freedom there is to exist across multiple categories. DJing is probably the best other job to have. It attributes the success that I have with releasing clothing. On a micro level, my DJing schedule creates different events in each market. The designer and the brand interact with local consumers and I’ve been doing it since I was 17. So 20 years of DJing means that I’ve had this following that’s my base. And a lot of the success I’ve had, I would say, is because I remove the boundary of designer and consumer and I’m more often in conversation with them. I’m in dialogue and I think what’s great is that the role with Louis Vuitton is it gives me an opportunity to bring some of those ideals to what I believe is the best brand in the luxury sector.
WWD: You dialogue with other brands including Nike. Why do you think collaborations are so popular and powerful? And do you see any end to them?
V.A.: No. I think it’s natural evolution. Anytime you catch yourself not making a decision because that’s the way it was done in the past is the first step to not realizing a bigger potential. To me, collaboration is more rooted in my art practice than even my fashion practice. We are human beings. Collaboration happens literally all of the time. In your office. On your day to day. But usually it’s messaged as the credit line. So and so made that so I decided to bring that all the way to the forefront. My customers know that I like to collaborate and I only collaborate with the best in every category. So if it’s Ikea, if there is a Nike idea and I put that toward the forefront so that the public can understand these recognizable parts. But then we are sharing an ecosystem. Nike’s ecosystem is big in a certain sector. My product is big in a certain sector. So we are creating new product just by willingness to collaborate.
WWD: You will have a retrospective at the Museum of Contemporary Art in Chicago called “Figures of Speech.” Can you talk about your use of language on clothes and the reasons behind it.
V.A.: It links back to American fashion, which is streetwear, and that in order to make a garment that’s distinct, there has to be a brand applied to it. So that’s where I built a dialogue. Then what came of that is sort of a language. The ready-made art principle by [Marcel] Duchamp is something I thought was a contemporary art movement that I thought would change the world. Take a ready-made object and put it in a different context and all of a sudden it can speak a different language. That was my overintellectualization of streetwear. I started using a language that was on everyone’s keyboard. A huge amount of my ideas come from this premise of a tourist and purist methodology. A purist is someone who knows everything about anything in a category. They are a gatekeeper. They say this is valid and this is not. The tourist is the everyday public. They will meet you halfway. They are intrigued by what the Eiffel Tower looks like. They are there, but they don’t know how it’s made or what it’s made from. The early trap for me as a designer was to focus on the purists. The fashion elite, the media, and I would take certain steps. But I come as a tourist. This Louis Vuitton jacket is from the collection and the pockets are made up of the pieces that I could afford. The little cardholder. And so instead of pandering to one or the other, I focused on the middle and trying to join those two worlds together.
WWD: How do you account for Off-White’s rapid success? And where do you think it can go?
V.A.: The success in what I mentioned, I would distill it to the dialogue between me and my customer base is very short. There’s not much between it. I post every image on the Instagram account. I touch the kids’ hands. I hang out with them. I get the feedback. I stay close to the scene that I relate to and then it’s sort of like I’m a workaholic so I design everything. But it’s a self-expression tool.
WWD: How do you balance everything?
V.A.: For me it was about having a strong sense of self and being appreciative of the new opportunities. I noticed that being a fashion designer comes with an entitlement wave. I was a fan and I’m still a fan of many designers who came before me. When I was 17 years old I didn’t believe I would be sitting on a stage like this. So instead of making my career about myself or the industry, it’s permanently focused on the 17-year-old that will be in my seat next. Because if they look at my career and see one interview that gave them a piece of advice, then now I’m linked to that and a generation will save the world. The business metrics aren’t the guiding force.
WWD: What do you see as the next cultural wave?
V.A.: Millennial is a key word, but it’s shaping the way that people are loyal to brands, things or people. So my approach is in a safe way is to reflect an opinion. With Nike and the Colin Kaepernick campaign, it was deciding what side of the opinion you are on. To me the glimmer of importance was that a brand makes a stance or leans toward an opinion. And there is an opportunity to create a loyal connection and loyal dialogue by simply making a point to stand for something. My advice would be to stay big but keep an opinion.
WWD: How do you maintain authenticity and how do you avoid going into what could become cliché?
V.A.: It’s a little bit how I use these working models. That’s how I equate it to it’s the zigzag. People are coming to me because they think it’s streetwear, but you will find a tulle gown that’s 150 meters of tulle and all of a sudden Sigourney Weaver wears it to a film festival. From what I’ve known, you need to categorize, but that isn’t a foundation. That little bit of misunderstanding gives an edge. The thing to know about my career is that Off-White started with a marketing budget of zero. I have a screen-printed shirt. Instagram is free. But being misunderstood or categorized is what I have used as a sort of gateway to create a compelling narrative that’s not obvious. The element of surprise is super important especially in fashion. If your next wave is predictable, that’s when you get the thumbs down.

(ZH) Here Is Goldman's Last Minute Pre-Election Status Check

Here Is Goldman's Last Minute Pre-Election Status Check

With just hours left until the first midterm elections results are released, banks are rushing to get their last-minute previews in, with Goldman the latest to opine that the contest for control of the House majority looks fairly competitive, and repeating what everyone by now knows: Democrats appear more likely to win the majority than the Republicans are to hold it. Meanwhile, in the Senate the picture is flipped, as Democrats have a very narrow path to a majority but Republicans appear much more likely at this point to maintain control.
So for anyone still looking for a last minute pre-election status check and missed our "complete midterm elections guide", here is what Goldman's clients are reading right now, courtesy of the bank's political economic Alec Phillips.
A Final Pre-Election Status Check
On November 6, all 435 members of the House and 35 Senate seats will be up for election. In addition, gubernatorial elections will be held in 36 states.
Over the last couple of weeks, the key barometers for public sentiment regarding the election have been relatively stable:
  • Generic ballot: The final generic ballot polling is averaging 7-8pp to the Democratic side. The Democratic share of the popular vote has historically underperformed the Democratic generic ballot vote share, and there has also typically been variation between popular vote share and seats won. That said, a generic ballot advantage of 7-8pp is likely to be sufficient to win at least a slim majority of House seats, in our view.
  • Enthusiasm gap: The ABC/Washington Post poll asks voters whether they are “certain to vote” or have already voted. Compared with the 2014 midterms the figures look good for Democrats: The share of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who are “certain” to vote has increased by 11pp more than Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; the non-white share has increased by 15pp more, the young share (under 39) has increased by 14pp more than the senior share, and the self-described liberal share has increased by 18pp more than the self-described conservative share. In the final CNN poll, voters who are “very enthusiastic” about voting are 8pp more Democratic leaning than those who are “less enthusiastic” about voting.
  • Bottom-up House polling: Polling in individual House districts shows a more competitive landscape than top-down measures. While House race polling is unreliable, the results are broadly intuitive: among seats that analysts rank as “likely” to go to one party or the other, the party leads polling in those races by around 10pp in an average of polls; among “lean” seats the average polling margin is about 5pp in the expected direction, and among “toss-up” seats the average poll is roughly tied. Taking the average of recent polls for each individual race at face value, we find that Democrats would win a net 26 seats, just a few more than the 23 they need to win the majority. As shown in Exhibit 1, the Democratic advantage in the 23rd through 26th seat averages less than 1pp, suggesting that from a bottom-up perspective the outlook for the House is fairly uncertain.
  • Bottom-up Senate polling: Taken at face value, polling in the Senate implies both parties will emerge from Tuesday’s election with the same number of seats they have now (51 Republicans, 49 Democrats). In light of the large polling deficit Democrats face in North Dakota, the most plausible path to a majority would be to hold all other seats and win Arizona and Nevada plus either Tennessee or Texas. This suggests the marginal seat the Democrats would need to win the Senate majority is leaning around 5pp in the Republican direction at the moment.
  • Prediction markets: The odds on one widely followed platform, PredictIt, imply a 65% chance of a Democratic House majority but only a 16% chance of a Democratic majority in the Senate. These probabilities are roughly in line, we believe, with the consensus view among market participants.
Divided Congress Is the Base Case
A Democratic House and Republican Senate is the clear consensus view among market participants and political analysts. As such, we would not expect a substantial market reaction to this result. From a policy perspective, we would expect the following under a divided Congress outcome:
  • Taxes: We expect no major tax legislation under a divided Congress scenario. However, with no major policies due to expire in 2019 or 2020, this would have little effect on our baseline fiscal policy view that tax policy goes from growth-positive to growth-neutral by late 2019. It is likely in this scenario that the Democratic House would try to pass tax legislation that redistributes the 2017 tax cut toward lower income households while also reversing the limitation on the state and local tax deduction. However, it would be very unlikely to attain the 60 votes needed in the Senate in this scenario, if it even came up for a vote.
  • Spending: Under a divided Congress, we would expect Congress to approve discretionary caps for defense and non-defense spending for FY2020 and FY2021 that are roughly flat in real terms with the spending caps for 2019 that Congress approved earlier this year. This is the assumption underlying our fiscal projections.
  • Infrastructure: We expect that a major infrastructure program such as the President has proposed would be unlikely under any election scenario, though some funding could be diverted toward infrastructure out of other non-defense spending, as it was this year. While President Trump and congressional Democrats have both supported infrastructure programs, the details differ substantially and, more importantly, Democrats might not be motivated to reach an agreement with the White House prior to the 2020 presidential election.
  • Trade Policy: A Democratic House would be more likely than a Republican House to block the implementing legislation for the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but we expect that the deal would eventually be approved. However, potential opposition could prompt President Trump to initiate the withdrawal process from the current NAFTA, forcing the House to choose between the new deal or none at all. In the absence of a legislative agenda in this environment, the White House would be more likely to pursue additional tariffs on imports from China, in our view (implementation of further tariffs by early 2019 is our base case).
  • Regulatory: Control of the House would have little direct impact on the regulatory agenda, since (1) it would likely be blocked in the Senate and (2) most regulatory changes under the Trump Administration have been carried out with existing authority and have not needed congressional approval. That said, it is likely that regulatory scrutiny of some regulated industries (health care, financial services) could increase through House committees.
  • Fiscal deadlines: Fiscal deadlines become riskier under a divided Congress. The next spending deadline is December 7, 2018 (before election results take effect) but this is likely to be pushed to either Q1 2019 or September 30, depending on what Congress decides after the election. Under a divided Congress, there will be a substantial risk of shutdown at the next spending deadline in 2019, though whether it happens will depend on the political environment at that point. The debt limit will be reinstated March 1, 2019 and we expect Congress will need to raise it by August. We note that the two most disruptive debt limit debates in recent memory, in 2011 and 2013, both occurred in a divided Congress.
A Republican Sweep Would Lead to More Fiscal Easing
While not widely expected, we believe many market participants view a Republican sweep as a real possibility. From a policy perspective, this outcome would differ in several respects from a divided Congress:
  • Taxes: If Republicans keep control of both chambers, we would expect another tax cut in the range of $60-70bn (0.3% of GDP) as a base case, though the size would depend on the size of Republican majorities in the House and Senate (larger majorities, particularly in the Senate, would likely make room for slightly larger tax cuts). Such legislation could pass via the reconciliation process with only 51 votes in the Senate, bypassing Democratic opposition.
  • Spending: Under a Republican Congress, the spending caps for FY2020 and FY2021 might be raised to a lower amount than under a divided or Democratic Congress, but we would not expect spending to be cut by the 5% the President has proposed, which would work out to around $65bn (0.3% of GDP). In this scenario, we would expect small nominal cuts of $15-30bn (0.1% of GDP) off of the FY2019 cap level.
  • Infrastructure: Compared to a divided or Democratic Congress, infrastructure would likely receive less legislative attention.
  • Trade Policy: USMCA passage would likely be easier in this scenario than under a divided Congress. The probability of a de-escalation of US-China trade tensions might also rise in this scenario, as the White House becomes more focused on the legislative agenda, such as passage of tax cuts, which would require the support of Republican members of Congress, including those who are concerned about the effect of retaliatory tariffs on US agriculture, among other industries.
  • Regulatory: The regulatory tone might be more industry-friendly under this scenario than in others, though the odds of enactment of any major deregulatory initiatives under this scenario would be low, in our view, as it would be unlikely to attain the 60 votes necessary to pass the Senate.
  • Fiscal deadlines: The spending and debt limit deadlines in 2019 would be somewhat less eventful under an all-Republican scenario, in our view. That said, growing deficits (we project a $1 trillion deficit in FY2019) and the need to secure bipartisan support for any spending extension might nevertheless make next year’s deadlines somewhat more eventful than they were over the last two years.
The Policy Consequences of a Democratic Sweep Would Be Similar to a Divided Congress
From a policy perspective, a Democratic House and Senate would be similar to a divided Congress in most respects, though there would be a few differences:
  • Taxes: Using the budget reconciliation process, Democrats could pass legislation reversing some of last year’s tax cuts. President Trump would likely veto but the process could increase uncertainty, particularly regarding the medium-term fate of the tax cuts after the 2020 presidential election.
  • Healthcare: President Trump and congressional Democrats have used similar rhetoric regarding drug pricing, but so far the Administration has not made substantial policy changes (though it has proposed some). Using the budget reconciliation process, a Democratic Congress would likely send legislation to the President’s desk that reduces spending on pharmaceutical and biotech products.
  • Infrastructure: An infrastructure package would become at least slightly more likely under a Democratic sweep than a divided Congress, but we would not expect a major package to be enacted.
  • Trade policy: The outlook would be similar to a divided Congress. A Democratic Senate would present less of a hurdle for passage of the USMCA than a Democratic House. Control of the Senate seems unlikely to alter the Administration’s stance on US-China trade.
  • Regulatory: Since 60 votes are necessary in the Senate for any regulatory legislation, a Democratic majority would not be sufficient for passage. That said, the Senate is responsible for confirming nominees for regulatory agencies, so replacing departing agency heads could become more difficult.
  • Fiscal deadlines: A Democratic Congress would likely have nearly as much difficulty agreeing on spending legislation or raising the debt limit as a divided Congress, in our view.

WSJ : Madison Avenue’s Unequal Fight With Google

Madison Avenue’s Unequal Fight With Google
As Silicon Valley takes a bigger share of ads, it gets easier for clients to cut out the middlemen


A battle is brewing between Madison Avenue and Silicon Valley as companies shake up the way they buy ads.

For years, agency groups like WPP, Omnicom OMC 0.21% and Publicis have made strong returns by combining advertisers’ budgets and driving bargains with media owners such as CBS in TV or Google online. This media-buying machine is still churning out fat profits, but looks vulnerable.

On one flank, the once fragmented online ad world has consolidated in the hands of Google and Facebook , giving ad buyers less clout. The tech giants will capture 57% of all online ad spending in the U.S. this year, according to data provider eMarketer.

On the other flank, more advertisers are bringing digital ad buying in house. Vodafone , Philips and GlaxoSmithKline have all announced initiatives in recent months. The rapid growth of Google and Facebook makes cutting out the agency middlemen ever easier, says Matti Littunen, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis.

The ad giants’ selling point is data on everything from internet searches to social-media “likes” and general internet browsing. These data give Google and Facebook a detailed picture of individual consumers, allowing them to show appropriately targeted ads. The tech giants guard this information closely in what have become known as “walled gardens.” The more data fall in the walled gardens, the poorer the land outside that agencies farm.

Agencies’ key selling point is independence: They give neutral advice on media spending to advertisers in a way a media platform like Google or Facebook cannot.

The problem with this pitch is that agencies have a credibility problem. Rumors about undisclosed kickbacks from media platforms in the U.S. have led to an FBI investigation. “Transparency” and cost are reasons, alongside better control over marketing data, why companies are bringing media spending in house, according to a recent survey of members by the Association of National Advertisers.

One hope for agency groups is that trustbusters force open the tech giants’ walled gardens. So far, though, regulation—notably this year’s European Union rules on data privacy—has only reinforced the walls.

Barring more aggressive regulation, the walled gardens seem likely to get bigger and richer as more ads go digital. TV, a bastion of traditional craft methods of selling ads based on broader demographic and ratings data, is now converging with the online world as consumers increasingly watch video through the internet. Further growth in targeted advertising looks inevitable.


Ad agency stocks have collapsed even as media-buying margins remain high. WPP and Publicis shares trade for 8 and 11 times earnings, respectively, a big discount to past levels and the wider stock market. Investors may be betting the margins can’t last.

This fear seems justified on a long-term view, but the timing is open to question. For now, the digital-ad boom continues to lift all boats, and working directly with Google and Facebook is the exception rather than the rule for big advertisers. Third-quarter results from the agency groups were resilient, except for WPP’s, despite a slump in creative work.

Middlemen will surely retain some role in media buying, but they will likely have to work harder for a slimmer cut. Bargain hunting in this kind of environment is a game for risk-hungry short-term investors. The disruption of ad agencies has only just begun.