FT : Brussels says Italy is set to breach its deficit limit in 2020


Italy will breach the EU’s 3 per cent deficit limit in 2020 and will come within a wafer of doing so next year, according to the European Commission’s latest economic forecasts.

Brussels expects the deficit to reach 2.9 per cent next year and 3.1 per cent in 2020.

It thinks the Italian economy will expand by only 1.2 per cent in 2019, whereas Rome has said its planned spending increases and tax cuts will help lift growth to 1.5 per cent.

By disputing the assumptions underpinning Rome’s calculations, Brussels will intensify a confrontation with the coalition government over its rule-busting budget plans. Brussels has given Rome until November 13 to resubmit its tax and spending proposals after concluding that they amounted to a “particularly serious breach” of the EU’s fiscal rules. Italy potentially faces a sanctions procedure and fines if it refuses to comply.

Rome last month said it would introduce a citizen’s income, reverse a rise in the pension age and cancel a planned increase in value-added tax. Together these measures would lift the deficit to 2.4 per cent in 2019, rather than the 1.8 per cent the previous government had agreed with Brussels.

The commission objects to Rome’s expansionary budget because it believes the higher deficit will make it impossible for Italy to meet its obligations to reduce its debt, which stands at 131 per cent of gross domestic product.

The commission said the outlook for Italian growth was “subject to high uncertainty and intensified downside risks”.

“A prolonged rise in sovereign yields would worsen banks’ funding conditions and further reduce credit supply, while public spending could crowd out private investment,” the commission said. “Envisaged policy measures might prove less effective, having a lower impact on growth. Uncertainty about government policies might affect sentiment and domestic demand. Finally, the planned rollback of structural reforms bodes ill for employment and potential growth.”

After robust growth of 2.4 per cent in 2017, the commission expects the eurozone to expand by 2.1 per cent this year and 1.9 per cent in 2019, with domestic consumption and investment offsetting global uncertainty.

>>> Breitling investor CVC acquires remaining 20% to hold 100%

Breitling investor CVC acquires remaining 20% to hold 100%

Breitling, a Switzerland-based, privately held watchmaker, is now owned 100% by CVC Capital, Basler Zeitung reported.
The Swiss daily said a CVC spokesperson confirmed the acquisition of the remaining 20% from Theodore Schneider. A previous report said that CVC acquired 80% in 2017 in a deal thought to value Breitling at around EUR 800m.

>>> SPAIN DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS TOTAL €3.99B VS. €3.5-4.5B INDICATED RANGE

SPAIN DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS TOTAL €3.99B VS. €3.5-4.5B INDICATED RANGE IN 2021, 2023, 2037 AND 2066 BONDS
- Sells €1.22B in 0.05% Oct 2021 SPGB; Avg yield: 0.111% v 0.126% prior, Bid-to-cover: 2.17x v 1.77x prior (Oct 4th 2018)
- Sells €1.42B in 0.35% July 2023 SPGB; Avg yield: 0.574% v 0.613% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.95x v 1.78x prior (Oct 18th 2018)
- Sells €553M in 4.20% Jan 2037 SPGB; Avg Yield: 2.235% v 2.314% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.05x v 1.58x prior (Jun 15th 2017)
- Sells €800M in 3.45% July 2066 SPGB; Yield: 3.036% v 2.664% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.37x v 2.09x prior (May 3rd 2018)

FT : Profits at SocGen jump by a third, beating expectations

Société Générale saw profits beat expectations in the third quarter after booking a large capital gain on its stake in Euroclear, one of the world’s largest securities depositories.

The French lender recorded a 32 per cent increase in net profits to €1.23bn, ahead of the €917m expected by analysts according to Refinitiv data. The revaluation of Euroclear gave the bank a €271m boost.

The group also saw revenues beat expectations, rising 9.6 per cent during the quarter to €6.53bn.

SocGen put the gains, outside of the Euroclear revaluation, down to a strong performance by international retail and financial services, a rebound in global markets and a “strong momentum in financing and advisory.”

Revenues from equities and prime services were up 19 per cent “due primarily to the good performance in the United States and in structured products,” while revenues from fixed income, currencies and commodities trading were stable. French Retail Banking revenues rose 1.8 per cent.

SocGen also added €136m to its provisions for disputes, which totalled €1.58bn at the end of September. The bank added that the “expected financial cost of the future settlement of the US Sanctions Case is fully covered.”

Fréderic Oudéa, chief executive in a statement on Thursday:

“The group put an end this quarter to the financial impact of the major litigation issues with the US authorities relating to the pre-financial crisis period.”

The lender said in early September it had entered into “a phase of more active discussions” with US authorities over allegations of sanctions violations and could reach an agreement in the “coming weeks”.

SocGen had already agreed to pay more than $1.3bn to US and French authorities to settle charges relating to a bribery scheme involving the Libyan Investment Authority and manipulation of the Libor benchmark interest rate that saw deputy chief executive Didier Valet leave the bank.

The bank’s common equity tier 1 ratio stood at 11.2 per cent, up 8 basis points from the end of June.

Two of SocGen’s big French rivals, BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole, have already recorded large falls in their quarter three FICC trading revenues.

>>> Mediaset may consider merger with TF1 and Prosiebensat 1 to create pan-Europ

Mediaset may consider merger with TF1 and Prosiebensat 1 to create pan-European TV group - report (translated)
08 NOV 2018
Mediaset [BIT:MS], the Italian TV broadcaster, is considering a merger with French TV group TF1 [EPA: TFI] and German TV broadcaster Prosiebensat 1 [ETR: PSM], the Italian-language daily Milano Finanza reported. The unsourced report said that the aim of the three-way merger would be to create a pan-European free TV broadcasting group.
The report noted that Mediaset already has a commercial alliance with the two companies. However, the item cited industrial analysts noting that this will not be enough to see off the challenge from US companies like Netflix thereby leading to pressure for a merger.
The item said that the main obstacle to such a merger would working out the stakes held in the new group post-merger. The report said that Mediaset is in the hands of FIninvest, the holding of the Berlusconi family, but that Vivendi [EPA:VIV] is still a potential spoiling presence in the group, with an 8.8% stake in the Italian group and a further 20% stake placed in a trust.
The item said that TF1 is controlled by Bouygues [EPA: EN], which holds a 43.79% stake while ProsiebenSat 1 is controlled by investment funds.
The article said that both Fininvest and Bouygues are likely to want to have 20-25% stakes in the new entity, something that could cause governance problems.
The article added that Mediaset could try to solve the Vivendi issue by speeding up an out-of-court settlement over outstanding issues between the two groups by accepting a EUR 400m - EUR 500m payment.
Mediaset has a market cap of EUR 3.34bn, TF1 has market cap of EUR 1.96bn and ProsiebenSat has a market cap of EUR 4.84bn.
Link to orginal source

>>> Inwit confirms interest in Wind Tree and Vodafone transmission towers (trans

Inwit confirms interest in Wind Tree and Vodafone transmission towers (translated)
08 NOV 2018
Inwit [BIT:INW], the telecoms transmission tower network controlled by Telecom Italia [BIT:TIT] is interested in the transmission towers being sold off by Italian mobile telco Wind Tre, and also the Italian transmission towers owned by Vodafone [LON: VOD].
A report in the Italian language daily Milano Finanza cited Inwit CEO Giovanni Ferigo who said the company was interested in the steps Vodafone would take for its Italian transmission towers and was looking at making a bid for a majority stake in the newco being set up to hold Wind Tre's transmission towers.
The item cited Ferigo as stressing that Inwit had no interest in taking a minority stake in the newco.
Ferigo added that the Vodafone transmission towers were of more interest.

>>> Louis-Dreyfus minority shareholders to be bought out by Margarita Louis-Drey

Louis-Dreyfus minority shareholders to be bought out by Margarita Louis-Dreyfus for EUR 900m (translated)
08 NOV 2018
Margarita Louis-Dreyfus, Chairperson of Louis Dreyfus Company Holdings B.V. (LDCH) announced that Akira B.V., the Group’s majority shareholder, has secured the arrangements necessary to buy out the minority shareholders who so desired.
“I am very pleased to have completed this process, reconfirming my commitment to safeguarding the Louis-Dreyfus heritage and shaping its long-term future,” commented Ms. Louis-Dreyfus. “With a stable ownership structure secured, we are well positioned to accelerate the execution of our growth strategy,” she said.
LDCH is the holding company of global merchant and processor of agricultural goods, Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC). “As part of LDC’s long-term strategy, the goal of the past three years has been to refocus the priority on its core business. This goal has been successfully achieved, as we are on track for solid results in 2018 and beyond. Now, we can proceed to the next stage of our long-term vision, which is sustainable growth. We have a highly experienced management team in place and I am fully confident that we can deliver according to expectations,” Ms. Louis-Dreyfus said.
“As we look to implement our ambitious growth plans, I also wish to keep all options open in terms of strategic partnerships, if appropriate for the business, always placing the interest of the company first,” she added.
Margarita Louis-Dreyfus also confirmed that LDC does not intend to depart from its long-standing dividend practice, consisting of a pay-out of up to 50% of net earnings and ad hoc extraordinary dividends related to strategic divestments, subject – as usual - to the needs of the business.
This development was also reported in daily Les Echos, which said that Akira will pay about EUR 900m to acquire 17% of the shares in LDCH. After completion of the deal, Akira will own 97% of the group, the report said.
Link to press release

(Nikkei) Foxconn's Wisconsin plant faces headwinds after US elections

Foxconn's Wisconsin plant faces headwinds after US elections
Incoming governor wants to renegotiate deals around $10bn factory

TAIPEI --Concerns are emerging over the future of Foxconn Technology Group's $10 billion investment in the U.S. state of Wisconsin after the politician who helped to harness nearly $4bn in tax breaks and other incentives for the project was ousted in Tuesday's election by a fierce critic of the package.

Foxconn, a key supplier for Apple, HP, Dell, Amazon and many others, is building a liquid crystal display panel plant in Wisconsin, and Chairman Terry Gou has credited Gov. Scott Walker's support as key to attracting the company also known as Hon Hai Precision Industry to the state. Both Walker and U.S. President Donald Trump attended the groundbreaking in June.

The $10 billion project represents one of the largest foreign investments in the U.S, and Foxconn had claimed it would create 13,000 jobs. The nearly $4 billion state and local incentive package for Foxconn also marks the largest subsidy program for a foreign company in American history.

Walker's defeat in his bid for a third term by Democrat Tony Evers in this week's mid-term elections has sparked questions over the future of the plant. In August Evers suggested in an interview that the deal should be redrawn.

"What we can do is renegotiate some of the side deals that Walker made with [Foxconn] that frankly don't make any sense," Evers said in an interview with Wisconsin's News 3 in August. The governor-elect has also said he will revisit the air permits granted to Foxconn for its manufacturing complex in the state.

Eric Chiou, a veteran display analyst at research firm WitsView, expects that Foxconn will need to renegotiate terms with Wisconsin, "and such talks could likely lead to some delay of the project."

"We need to monitor closely whether the successor would still somehow endorse the program," Chiou said. Display projects require massive capital investment, he added. "Any change in tax breaks, incentives and subsidies could make the Foxconn project even more challenging to generate returns sooner," Chiou said.

Evers has not responded to Nikkei’s request for comment as of press time.

As of Wednesday night, Gou had yet to convene an internal meeting to discuss the U.S. election result, two sources with the knowledge told Nikkei. But the company held meetings ahead of the election to discuss all possible outcomes, one of the individuals said.

"Gou will talk to Foxconn executives who are familiar with the U.S. and monitor the upcoming [Group of 20] summit before reaching any conclusions," one of the sources said.

Responding to Nikkei’s queries about whether the election result would affect its investment there, Foxconn congratulated Evers. “We look forward to working with Governor-elect Evers and his team,” Foxconn said.

“We have already made significant progress and continue to actively move forward on our commitment to create high-value jobs in Wisconsin as part of our major investment in the state,” the company said.

Foxconn did not disclose how much it has spent on the project in the manufacturing complex in Wisconsin or how much subsidy it has received from the state. But it has started to build the facility and initiated hiring programs there.

Foxconn and Trump announced the company's plan to invest $10 billion into Wisconsin during a White House event in July 2017. Wisconsin's state government soon agreed to offer $3 billion in tax breaks. Racine County and Mount Pleasant, the village where the plant is being built, later agreed to give around $764 million in incentives to the Taiwanese manufacturer.

The groundbreaking ceremony on June 28 in Mount Pleasant highlighted Trump's effort to restore manufacturing jobs in the country. But Foxconn's changes to the plan have raised growing doubts.

Instead of building a 10.5th-generation LCD facility as announced, Foxconn now will construct a factory that harnesses sixth-generation LCD technology in order to adapt to the fast-changing industry, Louis Woo, Gou's special assistant, confirmed to local media a few days before the groundbreaking.

Woo insists, however, that Foxconn's promise of a $10 billion investment remains unchanged. The Nikkei Asian Review first reported Foxconn's revised plan in May.

Foxconn also changed the workforce profile for the project. The company originally said it would require 75% of the 13,000 jobs to be production operators, according to a report by Foxconn's consultant agency Ernst & Young in July 2017.

But Woo told the Milwaukee Business Journal this August that at least 80% of the workforce will consist of engineers or research and development scientists.

Walker's loss need not affect Foxconn's project given the generally bipartisan support for jobs and investment, said Willy Shih, a professor of management at Harvard Business School.

Yet if the Taiwanese company's changes to the investment plans prompt Governor-elect Evers to have second thoughts about the deal, "any renegotiation or attempt at renegotiation [would] give Foxconn the perfect excuse to back out of the project," Shih told the Nikkei Asian Review.

Foxconn denied a Wall Street Journal report that it is considering bringing engineers from China to help fill the gap in Wisconsin. But market watchers say the news signals Foxconn's challenges in finding sufficient trained engineers in the U.S. and coping with the incomplete supply chains for building an LCD fab.

Though the election result and the Journal report suggest Foxconn's LCD plant will face growing skepticism in the U.S., the company has continued to try to raise its profile in the country.

Foxconn has started R&D programs and other collaborations with local universities to nurture the types of talent that it needs in the U.S. The company also established an artificial intelligence company in Silicon Valley to accelerate its efforts in industrial AI technology.

On Monday, Foxconn and Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. led 14 businesses in the state to join the first China International Import Expo in Shanghai, an effort to show that the company delivers on its commitment to support the growth of the state's economy.