>>> TradeGate PRe-Market Indications

DAX:
  • ThyssenKrupp (TKA TH) -0.5%
    • ThyssenKrupp Downgraded to Sell at AlphaValue
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -0.6%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -1.1%
  • Henkel (HEN3 TH) -7%
    • Henkel Cuts 2019 Guidance as Quarterly Profit Misses Estimates
MDAX:
  • Aareal Bank (ARL TH) +0.8%
    • Aareal Bank Second Quarter Operating Profit Meets Estimates
  • Scout24 (G24 TH) +0.8%
    • Scout24 Evaluates Auto Unit Options After Elliott’s Breakup Call
  • Duerr (DUE TH) +0.7%
  • Osram (OSR TH) +0.7%
    • Osram to Start Talks With AMS on $4.1 Billion Takeover Offer (1)
  • K+S (SDF TH) +0.6%
  • Deutsche Wohnen (DWNI TH) -0.5%
    • Deutsche Wohnen First Half Ebitda EU381.9 Mln
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) -0.5%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) -1.5%
    • Evonik Downgraded to Sell at Goldman; PT 21 Euros
SDAX:
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) +6%
    • HelloFresh Sees FY revenue growth in constant currency +28% to +30%, saw +25% to +30%
  • Steinhoff (SNH TH) +4%
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) +2.3%
    • Buy Wacker Chemie Now as Polysilicon Prices Will Rise, Citi Says
  • Adler Real Estate (ADL TH) +0.8%
  • Sixt (SIX2 TH) -0.5%
    • Sixt Second Quarter Revenue Beats Highest Estimate
  • Hamborner REIT (HAB TH) -0.5%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -1%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -1.1%
  • CompuGroup (COP TH) -1.6%

FT : Hedge funds take record short bets against Aston Martin

Hedge funds take record short bets against Aston Martin
Carmaker’s critics are paying large fees to take positions against its bonds

Hedge funds have taken record short positions in the debt and equity of Aston Martin, betting that the luxury carmaker will continue to struggle after one of the most disastrous stock market debuts of recent years.

The 105-year-old carmaker has given investors a rough ride since it floated in October, with a 73 per cent decline in its share price that has wiped more than £3bn from its market capitalisation.

Hedge funds have turned to short selling the company’s debt — even though it costs large amounts in fees.

Sterling-denominated bonds that back the group have become the most expensive among any UK corporate debt for new borrowers, according to data from IHS Markit, with an annualised borrowing fee of up to 550 basis points. In comparison, it costs hedge fund investors about 50 bps for an average sterling issue.

The carmaker has two sets of investable debt: a £285m bond maturing in 2022, which was issued in 2017, and a $400m bond that carries the same maturity.

IHS said there was a limited supply of sterling bonds now on offer to borrow, with a similar tightening of availability of the dollar debt, indicating the demand among short sellers to take positions against the group.

Shorting debt is less common compared with more traditional bets taken by hedge funds against a company’s shares. The level of borrowing in the US-traded dollar bonds issued by Aston Martin is at the highest level on record at 10.3 per cent, according to IHS Markit, while the level of sterling bonds on loan is near its high of about 12 per cent.

Shares in the company on loan are also the highest on record in recent days, another indication of short positions against the company, at above 8 per cent. The percentage of shares on loan was about 5 per cent at the start of the year.

Aston Martin, which declined to comment on the short selling activity, warned in July that the “external environment highlighted in May has worsened, as have macroeconomic uncertainties”, and “this softness will continue for the remainder of the year”. The shares, priced at £19 for the IPO, now trade at £5.11.

Sam Pierson, analyst at IHS Markit, said the high cost of borrowing showed a “willingness to pay” among hedge funds wishing to take positions against the company.

With a yield of about 9 per cent on the debt, this means that there is an annualised daily cost for shorting the debt of about 14 per cent. “This reflects a high level of conviction in the trade given the elevated borrow fee in addition to the coupon,” he said.

For some of the debt now, he said, “it is getting to the point where you couldn’t borrow for a price”.

Moody’s, the rating agency, downgraded the company’s corporate rating in July. It said that this reflected “the lack of progress in terms of volume growth and profitability for 2019 . . . and hence continued high negative free cash flow and high leverage”.

George Flynn, managing director of Everest Research, said it was hard to see any “positive short-term catalyst” to change the company’s financial position but that the end of the year could see a turning point. He added that the company could need to raise additional funds.

FT : Business flows are the new capital flows

Any student of emerging markets will tell you that financing a current account deficit with imported capital always seems like a good idea. That is, until investors panic and want their money back.

But what if businesses themselves were as nimble as capital? Able to shift in and out their chosen markets with the deftness and lightness of a bond trader.

Well speculate no more.

From an article in Quartz, published Monday:

Online food-delivery start-up Deliveroo will exit Germany this week, the company told customers and workers by email today.

An email sent to customers said the London-based company “will no longer be delivering in Germany” from Aug. 16. It didn’t provide a specific reason for the exit. Deliveroo operates in more than 200 cities across 12 countries and a company spokesperson said it would refocus investments in other markets in Europe and Asia.

Deliveroo has about 1,100 self-employed delivery workers or “riders” in Germany and delivers from over 2,000 restaurants. The company said it isn’t ruling out a return to Germany in the future.

Deliveroo’s sudden Ausfahrt offers a glimpse of what the new no-asset economy might mean for labour markets and the wider economy.

Put it this way. If Alphaville LLC, a theoretical manufacturer of a useless widget, had a German plant with over a 1,000 employees, a decision to close said plant would come with a wave of painful costs. There’d be expensive pensions, leases and redundancy packages to pay off, alongside writedowns of investments in capital infrastructure.

Deliveroo will probably not suffer the same problems. It has few real assets — only 4.3 per cent of its total assets were made up of property, plant and equipment at 2017’s end — and relatively few employees, thanks to the “self-employed” status of its army of “riders”. Like a trader wanting to cut their losses, Deliveroo can seemingly leave a market and reassess the opportunity when conditions improve, without incurring significant costs.

How its Germany counterparties fare is another matter. The riders, to Deliveroo’s credit, are being paid off for 24 days of work, although we do note its relative to how active they’ve been in the past 12 weeks. So bad luck if you’ve been on holiday, or writing a PhD thesis.

Its partner restaurants may also suffer a decline in revenues, assuming that the excess demand for local foodstuffs, like Alphaville favourite Flammkuchen, is not soaked up by rival Takeaway.com.

Hot capital has been a problem for many growing economies, so local regulators have developed a variety of tools — such as capital controls — to make sure “the electronic herd” doesn’t stampede out of an economy, damaging asset prices and the local currency.

On that basis, perhaps it won’t be long until these capital-light businesses find themselves, at times of market stress, forced to stay in local economies by regulators. Full employment secured.

FT : SoftBank founder aims to create ‘ecosystem’ of companies

SoftBank founder aims to create ‘ecosystem’ of companies
Strategy of new ‘operating group’ is combination of venture capital and private equity

Dozens of tech-company founders and chief executives will gather in Los Angeles next month for a private gathering that is elite, even by Silicon Valley standards. The price of entry: selling a stake in your company to SoftBank’s Vision Fund.

The two-day event will mark the first time since the Japanese group’s $100bn investment fund was launched in 2017 that all the leaders of its portfolio companies have come together in the same place, at the same time.

As SoftBank embarks on a new fundraising round of its own, to raise another $108bn for a second Vision Fund, the LA meeting is part of SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son’s ambition to create an “ecosystem” of companies that can collaborate to accelerate growth — and its own returns.

The LA event is organised by a little-known team within the Vision Fund — the “operating group” of more than 30 former executives working from SoftBank offices around the world to advise its portfolio companies on areas such as growth and international expansion. 

The operating group was founded just over a year ago and is led by Gerry Lopez, a former executive at AMC Entertainment, the movie-theatre owner, hotel chain Extended Stay America, and Starbucks. 

The strategy is an unusual combination of Silicon Valley-style venture capital and traditional private equity. Unlike PE firms, SoftBank typically owns a minority stake in Vision Fund companies.

“This is not PE, so we can't command like that,” said Mr Lopez. “This is companies working together because we make the right introduction to the right person at the right level in the company to his or her counterpart in another company.” 

Despite the Vision Fund’s focus on innovation, Mr Lopez himself has no background in the technology industry. Instead, he brings 30 years’ experience working at big consumer-facing companies, often backed by private equity, and then taking them public. 

“Some of our younger entrepreneurs, they don't know what the hell Sarbanes Oxley is,” Mr Lopez said, referring to the US accounting controls introduced in 2002. 

‘This is not PE’
For many portfolio companies, the clearest benefit of being part of the Vision Fund is the fast ticket to global expansion. With a series of investments from SoftBank, Oyo, the fast-growing hotel chain founded in 2013, has expanded from its home market in India to China, US, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and 10 other countries. The group is on track to overtake Marriott as the world’s largest hotel group within three months, according to Mr Son. 

“Once the Vision Fund invests in a company, that company is poised to become a market leader if it isn’t one already,” said Navneet Govil, the Vision Fund’s chief financial officer.

The growth is backed not only by Vision Fund’s immense capital. Joining the ecosystem means gaining access to SoftBank’s army of sales staff in Japan and local expertise through its investments in Yahoo Japan and China’s Alibaba. 

Already, WeWork, Didi Chuxing, the Chinese ride-sharing group, and Paytm, India’s biggest mobile payments company, have formed joint ventures with SoftBank in Japan, where they are expanding rapidly.

Vijay Shekhar Sharma, the founder of Paytm, said he is in talks with other Vision Fund companies to collaborate, after its technology platform was used when SoftBank and Yahoo Japan launched their mobile payment service in Japan last year.

“If there is a commercial deal that will happen between two portfolio companies, it will be faster and easier than a non-portfolio company,” Mr Sharma said.

While SoftBank is looking for synergies in areas from financial services to using WeWork’s shared office space, its many investments in the transportation sector make it a particular focus for dealmaking. 

In December, SoftBank invested $1bn in a parking-technology start-up called ParkJockey. In June, the company rebranded as Reef, unveiling plans to turn its network of car parks into hubs for ride-hailing, “virtual restaurants” for food delivery services, and garages for autonomous cars. 

While Reef’s kitchens supply other food delivery companies such as Postmates and GrubHub, Ari Ojalvo, Reef’s chief executive said he had “closer relations” with SoftBank-backed DoorDash and Uber Eats.

“It means you're able to have a much more constructive discussion around the realities of the business,” Mr Ojalvo said. “It doesn't feel like you're sitting on two sides of the table, with people holding their cards close to their chest.” 

But SoftBank’s wide-ranging bets on transportation also present potential conflicts. Uber Eats and DoorDash may both collaborate with Reef but they also compete fiercely with one another across North America. 

Jason Droege, head of Uber Eats, is cautious on the idea of striking a deal with another company just because they were part of the SoftBank portfolio. 

“Any of the partnerships we look at, we treat them equally, independent of who their investor base might be,” he said. “We look at who is the right partner for Uber — that's how we evaluate it.” 

Internal competition
Mr Lopez says competitive overlaps are a “trade-off” of SoftBank’s less controlling model. “In my view, if that is a cost we pay for freedom and entrepreneurs operating in an environment that is more valuable and open to them, that's not a huge cost to pay,” he said. 

For now, many of the ideas for potential collaboration between Vision Fund companies remain at the discussion — or even conceptual — stage. SoftBank’s operating group itself is growing almost as fast as its investments: Mr Lopez says his team will number more than 70 people by the end of the year. 

In the meantime, however, investors have yet to appreciate the additional value creation SoftBank is envisioning through the Vision Fund — to the frustration of Mr Son. At a recent earnings presentation, he noted the wide gap between the value of its equity holdings — at ¥21tn ($198bn) minus its net debt — and its current market capitalisation at ¥10.5tn. 

“Our image remains a telecommunications company with a lot of debt. But we’re no longer that,” Mr Son said. “Can you please take another look at our company?”

>>> What to look at today -13th of Aug. 2019

Asian stocks followed their U.S. counterparts lower Tuesday as turmoil in Hong Kong and Argentina added to trade tensions and dented sentiment.
Shares fell across the region led by Japan and Hong Kong, where stocks reacted to protesters bringing the city’s airport to a standstill on Monday. U.S. futures ticked higher. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index retreated for a second day and now sits almost 5% below its all-time high. The dollar firmed and yen slipped, while Treasury yields steadied after Monday’s slide. China’s 10-year bond yield fell to 3% for the first time since 2016.
US After Hours VCTR -19%, TME -6.6%, BE +6%, GNLN +2.7% following earnings/guidance

Nikkei -1.15% Hang Seng -1.74% CSI -0.98% Shanghai -0.70% Shenzen -0.91%

Eur$ 1.1190 CNH 7.1013 CNY 7.0653 JPY 105.43 GBP 1.2064 CHF 0.9717 RUB 65.4014 TRY 5.5630 WTI$ 54.76 -0.31%

S&P +0.17% EuroStoxx -0.15% FTSE -0.05% Dax -0.20% SMI -0.18%

Macro :
- Draghi’s Final Stimulus Push Keeps Bond Investors in Suspense
- Fears of Argentina Default Loom Large as Traders Dump Everything
- China 10-Year Sovereign Yield Falls to 3% First Time Since 2016
- Airport Trains Reduced Amid Fresh Protest Call: Hong Kong Update

Keep an eye on :
- ARL GY : Aareal Bank Second Quarter Operating Profit Meets Estimates
- ARBN SW : Arbonia Maintains Full Year Organic Revenue About +3%
- ALKB DC : ALK-Abello 2Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- AOX GY : Alstria Office Full Year Revenue Forecast 2.3% Below Estimates
- ASCN SW : Ascom Named Dominik Maurer CFO, Board Member as of Oct. 10
- BSLN SW : Basilea Starts Phase 1/2 FIDES-02 Study With Derazantinib
- GBB FP : Bourbon Delays 1H Results Publication Until Sept. 26
- BUR LN : Muddy Waters Says It Welcomes FCA Scrutiny on Burford Capital
- CEC GY : Ceconomy Confirms Full-Year Outlook as Revenue Declines
- CWC GY : Cewe Stiftung Affirms Forecast After ‘Positive’ First Half
- CCAP GY : Corestate Sees Full Year Adjusted Ebitda EU165 Mln To EU175 Mln
- DAE SW : Datwyler Sees FY Ebit Margin at Lower End of Range
- DWNI GY : Deutsche Wohnen First Half Ebitda EU381.9 Mln
- GMM GY : Grammer Full Year Revenue Forecast Meets Estimates
- HFG GY : HelloFresh Sees FY Adj. Ebitda Margin -1% To 1%, Saw -2% To 1%
- HEN3 GY : Henkel Cuts 2019 Guidance as Quarterly Profit Misses Estimates
- KENDR NA : Kendrion Second Quarter Ebitda EU11.1 Mln
- M5Z GY : Manz Cuts FY Revenue View; Sees Decline Instead of Rise (1)
- NWO GY : New Work SE First Half Ebitda EU39.7 Mln
- OR FP : California Startup Born in a Garage Beats L’Oreal in Patent Feud
- PHARM NA : Pharming Buys Exclusive License to Treat APDS From Novartis
- G24 GY : Scout24 Second Quarter Revenue Meets Estimates
- SIX2 GY : Sixt Second Quarter Revenue Beats Highest Estimate
- SLHN SW : Swiss Life 1H Operating Profit, Net Income Beat Estimates
- TWEKA NA : TKH Sees Full Year Adjusted Net EU106 Mln To EU112 Mln
- TETY SS : Tethys Oil Second Quarter Ebitda Beats Highest Estimate
- VSC GY : 4SC Gets 1-Digit Million Euro Milestone Payment From Link Health
- VBX GY : Voltabox Cuts FY 2019 Revenue, Earnings Forecast on Order Delay
- WIE AV : Wienerberger Second Quarter Ebitda 1.6% Above Estimates

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of Aug. 2019

>>> Up
* Aeroports de Paris Upgraded to Neutral at Goldman; PT 164 Euros
* Austrian Post Raised to Equal-weight at Barclays; PT 35.50 Euros
* Bakkafrost Upgraded to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 520 Kroner
* Coca-Cola European Upgraded to Hold at ABN Amro Bank
* Grieg Seafood Upgraded to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 140 Kroner
* LafargeHolcim Upgraded to Buy at Goldman; PT 59 Francs
* Leroy Upgraded to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 74 Kroner
* Mowi Upgraded to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 220 Kroner
* NNIT Upgraded to Hold at SEB Equities; Price Target 100 Kroner
* Norway Royal Salmon Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 230 Kroner
* Rentokil Upgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
* Salmar Upgraded to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 440 Kroner
* Symrise Upgraded to Buy at Goldman; PT 96 Euros
* Takeaway Upgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Set to 77 Euros
* Wacker Chemie Upgraded to Buy at Citi; PT Set to 77 Euros

>>> Down
* Buzzi Unicem Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 21 Euros
* Croda Downgraded to Sell at Goldman; PT 44 Pounds
* Demant Downgraded to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 210 Kroner
* Evonik Downgraded to Sell at Goldman; PT 21 Euros
* InterContinental Hotels Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
* Sioen Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
* Symrise Downgraded to Hold at Baader Helvea; PT 85 Euros
* ThyssenKrupp Downgraded to Sell at AlphaValue

>>> Initiation
* Blue Prism Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 12 Pounds
* Vidrala Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT 83.90 Euros

>>> Call
* Buy Wacker Chemie Now as Polysilicon Prices Will Rise, Citi Says
* Blue Prism’s ‘Hyper-Growth’ Past May Be Behind It: Berenberg
* Buzzi Unicem Upside Limited, Stay Positive on 2H: Morgan Stanley
* InterContinental Close to Fair Value, Cut to Hold: Berenberg