FT : Cutting-edge tech takeovers are a strategic threat to the west

Cutting-edge tech takeovers are a strategic threat to the west
Governments should be more vigilant about foreign acquisitions in critical sectors

When Chinese home appliance maker Midea acquired a majority stake in Kuka, a pioneering German maker of industrial robots, in 2016, Kuka’s chief executive, Till Reuter, promised it would remain German. But when Kuka refocused its attention from Germany to China, Mr Reuter’s contract was terminated.

Regulators habitually scrutinise foreign takeovers of major defence contractors, but foreign acquisitions of cutting-edge technology have national security implications too. Governments should be much more vigilant.

Cutting-edge technology is one of the west’s strongest assets. It’s also easy for others to acquire by taking advantage of the openness of the globalised economy: rivals can weaken their adversaries and strengthen themselves. “Industrial penetration has become a weapon,” says George Robertson, the former Nato secretary-general and UK defence secretary under Tony Blair. “The Chinese government in particular is implementing foreign policy through industry.”

Beijing rejects such assertions. “Any normal commercial activity should not perhaps be politicised,” Chinese foreign ministry official Hua Chunying said after Midea’s acquisition of Kuka. Nevertheless, the move led to the loss of Kuka as a German company.

Soon afterwards, Berlin introduced stricter rules regarding the types of businesses that would need government approval to be sold to foreign entities. Software suppliers of companies in critical areas such as energy and telecommunications are now included. Then last year, Germany lowered the ownership stake at which foreign investments in such companies require approval, from 25 per cent to 10 per cent.

A report by the Mercator Institute for China Studies found Chinese foreign direct investment in Europe has been shifting from utilities and infrastructure to financial services and biotech. Although the EU passed an FDI screening regulation for non-EU countries this year, it is a weak tool. Last year, the Swedish government sold three cutting-edge semiconductor companies to Chinese buyers. Governments clearly need to keep a closer eye on who is buying.

The UK, operating under legislation from 2002, is looking for a new approach. It needs one: between 2002 and 2018, the government intervened in only eight business transactions on national security grounds. Who knows how much weaponised penetration of British industry took place during that time? A white paper launched in 2018 proposes government approval for acquisitions of over 25 per cent in business selling “strategic goods”, calculating that the rules would lead to some 200 applications for approval each year.

What should a better policy look like? The first step is to decide which goods and services are vital to national security. These should include not just defence equipment and infrastructure but advanced civilian technology such as industrial robots or social media.

The second aspect is the investor: should western governments pretend that all foreign countries are equal and screen acquisitions of sensitive businesses by all nations? Given that entities from lots of friendly countries conduct cross-border investments (think Canadian pension funds or Norway’s sovereign wealth fund), such an approach would require a heavy load of bureaucracy. Better, according to Jenine Hulsmann, a partner at Clifford Chance who has worked on many sensitive FDI transactions, would be a “white list providing exemptions from filing and review requirements for investors from certain countries that make non-controlling investments”.

Open societies and markets are vulnerable. But by updating the definition of what constitutes sensitive goods and services, governments can stop subversive powers from weaponising the globalised economy.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • N/A.

Select EU financial related names showing weakness:

  • BCS -2.4%, DB -2.1%, LYG -0.8%, BBVA -0.8%, CS -0.7%

Other news:

  • XENT -14.8% (esults from study of the company's ASCEND investigational drug-coated sinus balloon -- trial did not meet its primary endpoint)
  • JKS -5.1% (negatively impacted by removal of tariff exemption for bifacial solar panels)
  • CSIQ -4.9% (negatively impacted by removal of tariff exemption for bifacial solar panels)
  • HEXO -2.2% (announces resignation of CFO Michael Monahan, effective today; appoints Stephen Burwash as new CFO)

Analyst comments:

  • MCRN -2.7% (downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets)
  • ALGN -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim)
  • WEN -1.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen)
  • MLHR -1.2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James)
  • HPQ -0.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus)
  • NFLX -0.6% (target lowered to $300 from $380 at Evercore ISI)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • N/A.

Other news:

  • PFNX +13.8% (announces that the FDA has approved the new drug application for PF708, with Forteo as the reference drug, for the treatment of osteoporosis in certain patients at high risk for fracture)
  • SPWR +5.9% (positively impacted by removal of tariff exemption for bifacial solar panels)
  • FSLR +4.9% (positively impacted by removal of tariff exemption for bifacial solar panels)
  • EDIT +2.2% (announce commercial license agreement)
  • GE +1.9% (announces U.S. pension plan actions -- expected to reduce pension deficit by approximately $5-8 bln and net debt by approximately $4-6 bln)
  • NBIX +1.4% (presents new data analyses demonstrating long-term effects of INGREZZA that show effectiveness in reducing abnormal movements in adults with tardive dyskinesia
  • ENPH +1.3% (positively impacted by removal of tariff exemption for bifacial solar panels)
  • TOT +1.3% (announced that the production from Phase 1 of the giant Johan Sverdrup field has started — more than two months ahead of schedule and with a cost reduced by more than 30%.)
  • SCHW +1.1% (positive Barrons article)
  • TSM +0.7% (positive Barrons article)

Analyst comments:

  • RNG +5.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • MTCH +4.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura; upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
  • SDC +3.6% (initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan, among others)
  • UBER +3.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
  • AYX +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush)
  • ETFC +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS)

>>> US Early premarket gappers



Early premarket gappers

Gapping up:

  • SPWR +5.3%, FSLR +4.1%, RNG +3.6%, MTCH +3.5%, GME +1.8%, MT +1.7%, TOT +1.6%, AG +1.4%, GE +1.3%, AEG +1.2%, VIPS +0.9%

Gapping down:

  • JKS -4%, DB -2.9%, SBGL -2.7%, BCS -2.4%, LYG -2.4%, AUDC -2.4%, BBVA -1.8%, CRH -1.7%, ABB -1.3%, OSTK -1.2%, TIF -1.2%, FMS -1.2%, TEVA -1.1%, QGEN -0.9%, JD -0.9%, STM -0.8%, CS -0.7%, CCL -0.5%

>>> Stoxx 600 - Pre-Market Indications

  • AMS (DQW1 TH) +4.5%
    • AMS Vows to Pursue Osram Takeover After $4.4 Billion Offer Fails
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +2.8%
    • Bayer’s Roundup Lawsuit Trial Has Been Delayed Until Next Year
  • Unilever (UNVB TH) +2.1%
    • Seeking Alpha: Unilever to halve use of new plastic
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) +1.2%
  • BNP Paribas (BNP TH) +1%
    TUI (TUI1 TH) +1%
  • Voestalpine (VAS TH) +0.9%
  • Ubisoft (UEN TH) -0.8%
    • Romania Insider: Ubisoft Romania rents 30,000 sqm in new office building
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -0.9%
  • Total (TOTB TH) -0.9%
    • What to Watch in Commodities: Trade Talks, Big Oil, Gold, WASDE
  • Gecina (GI6A TH) -1%
  • Telefonica (TNE5 TH) -1.1%
    • Telefonica in Pact With Rivals in Brazil to Buy Oi: Expansion
  • Dialog Semi (DLG TH) -1.9%
    • Dialog Semiconductor to Pay $80M Cash for Creative Chips
  • Osram (OSR TH) -6%
    • AMS Vows to Pursue Osram Takeover After $4.4 Billion Offer Fails

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of October 2019 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Balder Upgraded to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 418 Kronor (+)
* Castellum Upgraded to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 198 Kronor (+)
* Collector Upgraded to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 48 Kronor
* Daimler Upgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 45 Euros
* Ericsson Upgraded to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 70 Kronor
* Fabege Upgraded to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 180 Kronor (+)
* Hufvudstaden Upgraded to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 192 Kronor (+)
* Klovern Upgraded to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 20 Kronor (+)
* Kungsleden Upgraded to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 89 Kronor (+)
* NP3 Fastigheter Raised to Hold at Pareto Securities (+)
* Sagax Upgraded to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 102 Kronor (+)
* Stendorren Fastigheter Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities (+)
* Virbac Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies; PT 248 Euros
* Yara Upgraded to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 400 Kroner
* Xpediator Upgraded to Buy at Cantor; PT Set to 40 Pence (+)

>>> Down
* Altri Downgraded to Neutral at JB Capital Markets; PT 6.20 Euros
* Carnival Downgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT $43
* Carnival Plc Downgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 35 Pounds
* Cibus Nordic Real Estate Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities (+)
* Dechra Pharma Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies; PT 30.90 Pounds
* Kojamo Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman; PT 15.10 Euros
* Publicis Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 38 Euros

>>> Initiation
* AB Dynamics Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT 22.82 Pounds
* Duke Royalty Rated New Corporate at Edison; PT 54 Pence
* Trifast Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT 2.06 Pounds
* WH Smith Reinstated at HSBC With Buy; PT 24 Pounds

>>> Call
* Virbac’s U.S. Recovery Underestimated, Upgrade to Buy: Jefferies
* Machinery Stocks Have De-Rated, But Don't Be Too Bearish: Citi
* Publicis a Value Trap, Margin Reset Likely: Morgan Stanley
* Sobi Valuation Is too Low, Dagens Industri Says

>>> What to look at today - 7th of October 2019


U.S. stock futures fell and the yuan slipped Monday after a report that China may be increasingly reluctant to agree to a broad trade deal with the Trump administration. Treasuries climbed.
European futures were little changed. The report from Bloomberg saw Japanese shares close flat, failing to benefit from a rally in the S&P 500 Index on Friday spurred by solid U.S. hiring data that still left bets on further Federal Reserve easing intact. Traders are now pivoting to this week’s U.S.-China talks. Senior Chinese officials have indicated the range of topics they’re willing to discuss has narrowed considerably, people familiar with the matter said.

Nikkei -0.16% Hang Seng -1.11% CSI -0.99% Shanghai -0.92% Shenzen -1.06%

Eur$ 1.0980 CNH 7.1246 CNY 7.1483 JPY 106.89 GBP 1.2317 CHF 0.9954 TRY 5.7117 RUB 64.6275 WTI$ 52.90 +0.17%

S&P -0.36% EuroStoxx +0.09% Dax +0.15% SMI +0.15% SMI +0.15%

Macro :
- China Narrows Scope for Trade Deal With U.S. Ahead of Talks
- Brexit Deal Prospects Fade as Talks Stall, EU Signals Pessimism
- Turkey Boosts Syria Border Troops as Erdogan Flags Incursion

Keep an eye on :
- ACS SM : ACS Seeks Buyer for Road Maintenance Unit ImesAPI: Confidencial
- AIR FP : Airbus to Start Exchange for Airlines to Hedge: FN
- AMS SW : *AMS UP 7.1% IN BAER PRE-MKT AFTER $4.4B OSRAM OFFER FAILED
- BAYN GY : Bayer Roundup Trial in St. Louis Postponed, Susquehanna Says
- DBV LN : DBV Jumps 20% as FDA Sets Date for Viaskin Peanut Decision
- DLAR LN : De La Rue Names Clive Vacher as CEO, Effective Today
- DLG GY : Dialog Semiconductor to Pay $80M Cash for Creative Chips
- DOM LN : Domino’s Woos Ex-Greene King CEO to Lead U.K. Board: Times
- DRX LN : Drax Application Approved to Develop Gas Turbine Technology
- DUKE LN : Duke Royalty Starts Placing of Up to GBP20M at 44p Per Share
- EDF FP : EDF Unions Call for Oct. 17 Strike Against Group Reorganization
- ETL FP : Eutelsat CEO Backs ‘Significant’ C-Band Payment to U.S.
- FER SM : Goldman Arranging Loan to Help Sell Ferrovial Unit: Expansion
- GENL LN : Genel Energy Appoints Paul Weir as Chief Operating Officer
- GHH LN : Gooch & Housego Sees Earnings in Line With Previous Expectations
- HSBA LN : HSBC to Cut Up to 10,000 Jobs to Slash Costs, FT Reports (1)
- KAHL SS : Mellby to Complete KappAhl Offer; Holds More Than 90% of Shares
- KID NO : Kid Interior Third Quarter Like-for-Like Sales +2%
- NG/ LN : National Grid May Hold Talks on Managing Power Networks: FT
- NXI FP : Nexity Puts in Place NEU CP Program With EU300M Ceiling
- NKSJF US : Norske Skog to Sell Offer Shares at NOK35-45/Share in IPO
- ON IM : Italy Regulator Reviewing Bio-On 1H Results: Stampa
- OSR GY : Osram to Update Strategy as Ams Offer Doesn’t Achieve Threshold
- RB/ LN : *RECKITT BENCKISER IS PREPARING TO REPLACE CFO: SKY
- RFX LN : Ramsdens Says Performance is in Line With Expectations
- RDSA NA : Chevron Buys 40% Stake in 3 Deepwater Mexico Blocks from Shell
- SCHA NO : Schibsted Decided to Pause Buybacks From Today
- SHI LN : SIG Says Trading Deteriorated Further; Agreed Sale of Two Units
- ALS30 FP : Solutions 30 Confirms to Move to IFRS With 2019 Results
- SKFB SS : SKF Board Member Gougarty Resigns After SEC Investigation
- TSCO LN : Tesco Bank Names John Kingman to Board as Non-Executive Director
- TMO LN : Time out to Offer Up to 13.5m Shrs GBP1.27/Shr
- FP FP :Total: Johan Sverdrup Giant Field Starts Up in the North Sea
- VOVLB SS : Volvo to Double Market Share in China Construction Equipment: DI

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of October 2019

>>> Up
* Collector Upgraded to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 48 Kronor
* Daimler Upgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 45 Euros
* Ericsson Upgraded to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 70 Kronor
* Virbac Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies; PT 248 Euros
* Yara Upgraded to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 400 Kroner

>>> Down
* Altri Downgraded to Neutral at JB Capital Markets; PT 6.20 Euros
* Carnival Downgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT $43
* Carnival Plc Downgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 35 Pounds
* Dechra Pharma Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies; PT 30.90 Pounds
* Kojamo Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman; PT 15.10 Euros
* Publicis Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 38 Euros

>>> Initiation
* AB Dynamics Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT 22.82 Pounds
* Duke Royalty Rated New Corporate at Edison; PT 54 Pence
* Trifast Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT 2.06 Pounds
* WH Smith Reinstated at HSBC With Buy; PT 24 Pounds

>>> Call
* Virbac’s U.S. Recovery Underestimated, Upgrade to Buy: Jefferies
* Machinery Stocks Have De-Rated, But Don't Be Too Bearish: Citi
* Publicis a Value Trap, Margin Reset Likely: Morgan Stanley
* Sobi Valuation Is too Low, Dagens Industri Says

>>> TradeGate Pre-Mkt indications

DAX:
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +3.7%
    • Bayer’s Roundup Lawsuit Trial Has Been Delayed Until Next Year
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +0.9%
    • German Lenders Drag Retail Clients Into Fray of Negative Rates
  • Wirecard (WDI TH) +0.9%
MDAX:
  • Siltronic (WAF TH) +1.6%
  • RTL (RRTL TH) +1%
  • K+S (SDF TH) +1%
  • GEA Group (G1A TH) +0.8%
  • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) +0.7%
  • Dialog Semi (DLG TH) -1.8%
  • Osram (OSR TH) -5.2%
    • AMS Vows to Pursue Osram Takeover After $4.4 Billion Offer Fails
SDAX:
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) +2.6%
  • Jungheinrich (JUN3 TH) +1.6%
  • SGL (SGL TH) +1.2%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1.2%
  • Varta (VAR1 TH) +1.1%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) -0.9%