FT : Kering chief vows rapid overhaul after sealing €4bn beauty deal

Kering chief vows rapid overhaul after sealing €4bn beauty deal
Luca de Meo says agreement with L’Oréal will be first of several big moves to refocus luxury group on Gucci turnaround

Kering’s new chief executive has vowed to make sweeping changes in an urgent bid to refocus the luxury group on fashion, as it announced a €4bn deal to sell its beauty operations to L’Oréal.

Luca de Meo signalled that he planned to make several big changes to the Gucci-owner, one of the world’s top luxury groups, saying he had moved to seal the beauty deal “as quickly as possible” and promising that “you’ll see others”.

The luxury sector enjoyed a boom during the pandemic, driven by housebound consumers spending more on high-end goods and huge growth in the Chinese market, but has since been hit by consumers reining in spending and a faltering Chinese economy.

De Meo, brought in from Renault where he led a large turnaround of another of France’s top listed companies, said his top priority was to refocus Kering on its fashion brands, notably Gucci. As well as beauty and fashion, the group also sells eyewear, while its jewellery houses include Boucheron.

“The urgency is to focus on the things . . . where we have a critical size and skills. That will help me lighten the boat and be able to focus on the relaunch of fashion brands,” de Meo told the Financial Times in an interview on Monday after Kering announced the sale of its beauty business.

He added that he wanted to “inject more speed into some of our decisions”.

The group’s flagship label — which accounts for about half of its sales and two-thirds of profits — has fallen out of favour with consumers in a challenging luxury market. It also suffered from over-dependence on China when demand in the country slowed.

Under the terms of the deal, L’Oréal is buying perfumer House of Creed, as well as 50-year licences to develop and sell fragrances under the Gucci, Bottega Veneta and Balenciaga labels. The French beauty giant will pay undisclosed royalties to Kering in return.

The talks, which had begun before de Meo arrived from Renault, sped up from August, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

Kering’s chief said he remained “pragmatic” with regard to other potential asset sales, including a possible disposal of its successful eyewear division.

“I don’t want to close the door because we try to be very open,” de Meo said, before highlighting that Kering’s eyewear business was important to some of its most valuable clients and that it was the industry leader on the highest-end segments.

Kering’s shares were up 4.1 per cent on Monday afternoon, extending a rally of more than 80 per cent over the past six months, on the back of hopes that de Meo can turn the group around and that the broader malaise in the luxury industry is easing.

“I’ve always believed that speed is important in modern business,” said de Meo.

“As soon as I saw that I had this opportunity, I tried with Nicolas [Hieronimus, chief executive of L’Oréal] to work so that we could conclude [the deal] as quickly as possible. And you’ll see others,” he added.

UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz said the deal would help Kering reduce its debt, thus tackling “one of the biggest investor concerns”.

Pusz calculates that the proceeds could reduce Kering’s net debt from 3.1 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to roughly 2 times, which may outweigh impairments that the group has taken on parts of its beauty business. Kering acquired Creed for €3.5bn only two years ago.

For L’Oréal, the deal marks its biggest-ever acquisition. Hieronimus said it would cement its status as the market leader in high-end beauty, and that L’Oréal would focus its efforts initially on developing Creed.

L’Oréal’s chief said in an interview that he hoped to almost triple Creed’s annual revenues to €1bn “fairly quickly”. The group’s shares edged up by 0.3 per cent on Monday.

L’Oréal will not get its hands on the licence for Gucci, which is expected to ultimately prove the most valuable, until a deal with beauty group Coty expires in 2028.

“Obviously, having the opportunity, when it is legally possible, to recover the Gucci brand was one of our motivations,” said Hieronimus. 

L’Oréal has form for growing high-end beauty brands. Revenues at Aesop, the upmarket soap maker it bought two years ago for $2.5bn, increased by about 10 per cent in 2024, according to one person close to the business.

The French group, which holds the beauty licence for Yves Saint Laurent, another Kering brand, generates about €3bn in annual beauty revenues from it, according to Hieronimus. That is slightly above YSL’s €2.9bn of fashion sales last year.

This implies that there is substantial opportunity to grow Gucci’s beauty range, which Hieronimus said generated only about €600mn in revenues last year, compared with the label’s €7.7bn of fashion revenues.

“When you look at the positioning of Gucci in this segment, there is room for improvement,” acknowledged de Meo. 

Spanish fragrance and fashion group Puig also took an interest in Kering’s beauty division, according to two people with knowledge of the situation. Puig declined to comment.

But in the end, the people said, the deal with L’Oréal offered a more logical and expansive partnership.

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades
    • Ally Financial (ALLY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $50
    • Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital, tgt $315
    • Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $10.50
    • Darden Restaurants (DRI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $225
    • Digital Realty Trust (DLR) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $194
    • Gaming and Leisure (GLPI) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $54
    • Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $18
    • KLA Corporation (KLAC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt, $1,200
    • Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $146
    • Marsh & McLennan (MMC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman, tgt $195
    • ProLogis (PLD) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital, tgt $119
    • Sempra Energy (SRE) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $101
    • SLB (SLB) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $42
    • Triumph Financial (TFIN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley, tgt $70
  • Downgrades
    • Astera Labs (ALAB) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays, tgt $155
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $63
    • KKR Real Estate Financial Trust (KREF) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $9
    • Lumentum (LITE) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays, tgt $165
    • Marvell (MRVL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays, tgt $80
    • Progressive Corp. (PGR) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $214
    • Qorvo Inc. (QRVO) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $75
    • Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $10
    • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $60
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $150
  • Others
    • Allient Inc. (ALNT) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $60
    • Allot Ltd. (ALLT) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $13
    • American Resources Corp. (AREC) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • Armstrong World Industries (AWI) initiated with a Buy at Vertical Research, tgt $238
    • Avepoint Inc. (AVPT) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (BOLT) assumed with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $7
    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) initiated with a Sell at Vertical Research
    • CAVA Group Inc. (CAVA) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $74
    • Ferguson Plc. (FERG) initiated with a Buy at Vertical Research
    • GeneDx (WGS) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity, tgt $155
    • Kodiak AI (KDK) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $13
    • NewAmsterdam Pharma Co NV (NAMS) assumed with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $52
    • NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • Pearson PLC (PSO) assumed with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Royalty Management Holding Corp. (RMCO) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • Sila Realty Trust Inc. (SILA) initiated with a Peer Perform at Wolfe Research
    • SPX Technologies (SPXC) initiated with a Hold at Truist, tgt $209
    • United States Antimony Corp. (UAMY) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT) initiated with a Hold at Canaccord Genuity, tgt $40
    • Western Midstream (WES) reinstated with a Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $39
    • WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. (WSC) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $28
    • Zoom Communications (ZM) assumed with a Neutral at UBS, tgt $85

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
News:
  • REPL +64% (Highlights Acral Melanoma Data for RP1 plus Nivolumab at the ESMO Congress 2025; FDA accepted the resubmission of the Biologics License Application for RP1 in combination with nivolumab for the treatment of advanced melanoma)
  • CELC +51.8% (Results from PIK3CA Wild-Type Cohort of Phase 3 VIKTORIA-1 Trial; Provides Update on Status of the PIK3CA Mutated Cohort of Phase 3 VIKTORIA-1 Trial and Releases Additional Data Analysis From Phase 1b Clinical Trial)
  • CRBP +18.9% (Presents CRB-701 Robust Clinical Responses in HNSCC and Cervical Cancers at ESMO25)
  • UAMY +17.8% (files for $400 mln common stock offering; proposes acquisition of Australia's Larvotto Resources)
  • DVLT +16.2% (files for 5 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • GRAL +14.1% (results Show Galleri Multi-Cancer Early Detection Blood Test Increased Cancer Detection More Than Seven-Fold When Added to USPSTF A and B Recommended Screenings; enters private placement expected to result in gross proceeds of ~$325.0 million)
  • RAPT +9.5% (to Report Topline Data from Phase 2 Clinical Trial of RPT904 in Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria)
  • AUTL +6.8% (Announces First Patient Dosed in Phase 1 Trial of Obecabtagene Autoleucel (Obe-Cel) in Patients with Progressive Multiple Sclerosis)
  • KURA +6.1% (Announces Preliminary Data from Its Farnesyl Transferase Inhibitor (FTI) Programs at the 2025 European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress) NCNA +5.7% (Presents Encouraging Data on NUC-7738 in Combination with PD-1 Inhibitors using Primary Patient-Derived Organoids and Autologous Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes at the ESMO Congress 2025)
  • MESO +4.7% (reports Ryoncil Net Revenues)
  • NRIX +3.7% (Reports New Clinical Data from First-in-Class Oral CBL-B Inhibitor, NX-1607)
  • IDYA +3.6% (reports positive median overall survival data from phase 2 trial of the Darovasertib and Crizotinib Combination in first-line metastatic uveal melanoma at the 2025 Society for Melanoma Research Congress)
  • APLD +3.6% (filed an amendment to the Certificate of the Designations, Powers, Preferences and Rights of Series G Convertible Preferred Stock)
  • KROS +3.4% (commences issuer tender offer to repurchase up to $194.4 million shares)
  • SMLR +2.5% (CFO Renae Cormier to step down)
  • FFAI +2.3% (Faraday Future Founder and Co-CEO YT Jia Shares Weekly Investor Update)
  • IRON +2.1% (announces proposed public offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants)
  • GKOS +2.1% (receives FDA approval for Epioxa)
  • ARVN +2% (Patient-Reported Outcomes from VERITAC-2 Clinical Trial Support Clinical Benefit of Vepdegestrant in Patients with ESR1-Mutated, ER+/HER2- Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Previously Treated with Endocrine-Based Therapy)
  • NUTX +2% (reports corporate update; significant year-over-year growth in patient volume and cash collections)
  • ENTA +1.7% (Presents New Data for Zelicapavir, its N-Protein Inhibitor, and EDP-323)
  • ARES +1.5% (LenderMAC enters into strategic relationship with Ares to expand origination and non-QM capabilities)
  • NVO +1.5% ( FDA approves Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide for cardiovascular (CV) risk reduction in adults with type 2 diabetes)
  • LHX +1.4% (The Republic of Korea selects L3Harris for Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft Program)
  • CORT +1.3% (Presents ESMO 2025 Late-Breaker: Relacorilant Demonstrates Benefit in Patients with Platinum-Resistant Ovarian Cancer with Prior PARP Inhibitor Treatment)
  • BA +1.2% (report that FAA has approved increase of 737 MAX production to 42/month from 38/month, according to CNBC)
  • CALX +1% (announces that ALLO Communications has launched Smart Schools, an innovative program built on Calix SmartTown for Education and fully integrated with the Calix Broadband Platform)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
News:
  • OLMA -26.1% (New Data from the Phase 1b/2 Trial of Palazestrant Plus Ribociclib in ER+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer at ESMO 2025)
  • EXEL -12.7% (results from Subgroup Analysis of CABINET Phase 3 Pivotal Trial Evaluating CABOMETYX)
  • SMMT -5.2% (Ivonescimab with Chemotherapy Reduced the Risk of Disease Progression or Death by 40% Compared to Tislelizumab (PD-1 Inhibitor) Plus Chemotherapy in 1L Treatment of Patients with Squamous NSCLC in the HARMONi-6 Study Conducted by Akeso in China)
  • GMAB -4.5% (New Data Demonstrating Investigational Rinatabart Sesutecan)
  • APLS -2% (New One-Year Data Reinforcing the Robust and Sustained Efficacy of EMPAVELI (pegcetacoplan) in C3G and Primary IC-MPGN to be Presented at ASN Kidney Week)
  • ONC -1.6% (presents new data on Tevimbra in Lung Cancer at ESMO)
  • FLGT -0.9% (shares preliminary data from poster presentation at ESMO 2025 Conference)
  • AMGN -0.8% (Amgen and AstraZeneca (AZN) announce that the U.S FDA approved TEZSPIRE)
  • VSTM -0.8% (Announces Updated Data from Partner GenFleet Therapeutics' Phase 1/2 Monotherapy Study in China of GFH375 (VS-7375) in Advanced KRAS G12D Mutant Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma)
  • ONCY -0.8% (entered into $50 mln At-the-Market Sales Agreement with BTIG)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of October 2025 V3(++)

>>> Up
* ADP Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 139 euros
* Cyfrowy Raised to Buy at Trigon Dom Maklerski; PT 16 zloty (++)
* Darden Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $225
* Ithaca Energy Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 220 pence
* Johnson & Johnson Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $203
* Lululemon Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $146 (++)
* PZU Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 66 zloty
* RENK Group Raised to Hold at mwb research AG; PT 65 euros (++)
* Rolls-Royce Raised to Hold at Berenberg; PT 1,080 pence (++)
* Sempra Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $101
* Siltronic Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT Raised from 45 to 75 euros
* Sinch Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken; PT 38 kronor (++)
* Sparebanken Ost Raised to Buy at Norne Securities; PT 84 kroner (++)
* Tomra Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 150 kroner
* Tomra Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 145 kroner
* Valmet Raised to Accumulate at OP Corporate Bank; PT 29 euros (++)
* Wise Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT 1,390 pence (+)
* YIT Raised to Accumulate at Evli Bank; PT 2.90 euros (++)

>>> Down
* Athens Intnl Airport Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Comet PT cut from 260 to 250 CHF at Deutsche Bank
* Digital 9 Infrastructure/Fund Cut to Underweight at Barclays
* Fraport Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 82 euros
* HUG PW Cut to Neutral-Short Term Sell at Santander Biuro Maklerskie (++)
* Humble Group Cut to Hold at Nordea
* KKR Real Estate Finance Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $9
* Marvell Technology Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $80
* Metsa Board Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 2.80 euros
* PlayWay Cut to Underperform at Santander Biuro Maklerskie (++)
* Talenom Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 3.80 euros
* Unite Group Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 575 pence (+)
* Yara Cut to Hold at Danske Bank Markets; PT 410 kroner (++)

>>> Initiation
* Amplifon Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 19 euros (+)
* Azelis Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 15 euros (+)
* Billerud Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 115 kronor
* Brenntag Reinstated Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 55 euros (+)
* Cava Group Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $74
* Cicor Tech Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Deutsche Bank Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 33 euros
* Dedem Rated New Outperform at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 7.90 euros
* IMCD ADRs Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $72.50 (+)
* Italgas Rated New Buy at UBS; PT 9.30 euros (++)
* KSB Rated New Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 1,190 euros (++)
* Orsted Rated new Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux PT 140 DKK (+)
* Sonova Reinstated Underperform at BNPP Exane (+)
* Xplora Technologies Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Xvivo Perfusion Rated New Buy at Handelsbanken; PT 300 kronor (++)

>>> Call
* Marks & Spencer Cut at RBC as Shares Look Fair After Recovery (+)
* TEN PW Raised to Neutral-Short Term Sell at Santander Biuro Maklerskie (++)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • CELC +51.1%, RAPT +27.8%, CRBP +17.5%, UAMY +13.4%, DVLT +12.8%, KURA +7.5%, NRIX +7.1%, GRAL +6.4%, NCNA +6.1%, CATX +5.6%, MESO +4.9%, FFAI +4.4%, KROS +3.7%, VSTM +3.4%, FLGT +3%, SMLR +2.5%, ARVN +2.4%, NUTX +2.1%, NVO +2%, REPL +2%, LHX +1.5%, BA +1.4%, CALX +1%, NTRA +0.9%, IDYA +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • OLMA -18.2%, EXEL -8%, GMAB -4.5%, MAZE -2%, ONC -1.6%, AMGN -0.9%, ONCY -0.8%, NUVL -0.6%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of October 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* ADP Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 139 euros
* Darden Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $225
* Ithaca Energy Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 220 pence
* Johnson & Johnson Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $203
* PZU Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 66 zloty
* Sempra Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $101
* Siltronic Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT Raised from 45 to 75 euros
* Tomra Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 150 kroner
* Tomra Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 145 kroner
* Wise Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT 1,390 pence (+)

>>> Down
* Athens Intnl Airport Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Comet PT cut from 260 to 250 CHF at Deutsche Bank
* Digital 9 Infrastructure/Fund Cut to Underweight at Barclays
* Fraport Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 82 euros
* Humble Group Cut to Hold at Nordea
* KKR Real Estate Finance Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $9
* Marvell Technology Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $80
* Metsa Board Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 2.80 euros
* Talenom Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 3.80 euros
* Unite Group Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 575 pence (+)

>>> Initiation
* Amplifon Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 19 euros (+)
* Azelis Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 15 euros (+)
* Billerud Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 115 kronor
* Brenntag Reinstated Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 55 euros (+)
* Cava Group Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $74
* Cicor Tech Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Deutsche Bank Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 33 euros
* Dedem Rated New Outperform at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 7.90 euros
* IMCD ADRs Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $72.50 (+)
* Orsted Rated new Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux PT 140 DKK (+)
* Sonova Reinstated Underperform at BNPP Exane (+)
* Xplora Technologies Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities

>>> Call
* Marks & Spencer Cut at RBC as Shares Look Fair After Recovery (+)

FT : Luxury goods and investing in the K-shaped world

Luxury goods and investing in the K-shaped world
The rich-get-richer trade


Luxury
LVMH, the largest, and by acclaim, the best-run of the big European luxury houses, had a good week last week. From the FT:

LVMH shares surged 13 per cent . . . as investors hailed the group’s return to growth in the third quarter and bet that the industry was through the worst of a multiyear downturn . . . revenues rose 1 per cent on an organic basis to €18.3bn in the period, snapping two quarters of decline

To get a sense of the industry’s downturn, have a look at revenue growth rates over the past 10 years. The wild post-pandemic bauble buying spree proved impossible to maintain, not just at LVMH but at Hermes, Richemont, Kering and Moncler. Sales have been decelerating for four years:


As a result, over the past five years, only LVMH and Hermes have beat the European stock indices. And over the past three, even shares in those two have been flat:

My colleague Elizabeth Paton, the FT’s fashion editor, is not convinced that the LVMH results are evidence that the sector has shaken off its troubles. From her Fashion Matters newsletter (sign up for it here):

“The worst is over!” I hear you cry! Well, kind of…

LVMH is . . . the biggest, richest and most powerful group in the business, throwing everything possible in its grasp at turning the ship around. If [1 per cent growth] is the best that the best can achieve, with unlimited resources and top talent, who is to say the rest of the pack can all do as well as it has?

. . . The sector has priced itself up to levels from which it will be very hard to back down . . . There are still many consumers who don’t care about fashion the way they did, and the product from big name new hires like Jonathan Anderson at Dior won’t trickle into stores for some time yet . . . we are not out of these woods just yet.

The point about price is crucial. For several years, luxury industry experts have been saying that producers need to focus their attention squarely on the very small percentage of customers who generate a very large percentage of industry revenue. This means pushing super-duper premium goods priced as high as possible to capture as many dollars as they can from utterly price-insensitive customers, while treating the “aspirational” customer who has to reach for something special as a brand-tainting threat.

That’s classic management consultant/activist investor advice, but like a lot of the classics of that genre, it may be a poor long-term strategy. To understand why, read a recent column by another colleague, Jo Ellison of HTSI. Aspirational purchases create brand loyalty among young consumers, and the tippy-top end customer can be fickle. Ellison writes that:

. . . not all of luxury is suffering: in the wake of the pricing vacuum a number of smaller independent brands have emerged [and] boasting healthy growth. The secret to their success has been the dazzling revelation that most people don’t have infinite bank accounts.

Investors face a wider question. One of the reasons to own the big luxury houses is to play the “K-shaped” economy of many developed countries. The share of wealth in the hands of the very rich is high and rising. It is possible to deplore this trend as a citizen and want exposure to it as an investor. So how best to get it? There is one very simple and general answer to this question: just own financial assets of any sort, preferably ones that contain some kind of hedge against inflation. The rich don’t tend to consume any incremental new wealth they accumulate, because they already have all the stuff they need. They tend to invest their next dollar instead, pumping money into financial markets, pushing up their value (this is the “savings glut of the rich”).

But what if one wants more leveraged exposure to the rich-get-richer trade? Are luxury houses the right trade for that? I’m not sure. The luxury groups do sell to the very rich, and they have some of the best and most enduring brands in the world — and a strong brand is an incredibly powerful thing. But a brand has to be attached to the right business model to make a great investment (look at the long-term stock chart of Mercedes if you want to see what a great brand attached to a bad business model looks like). 

Luxury brands have to carefully navigate both pricing and styling. The latter is especially tricky to manage. Might a better long-term rich-get-richer trade be to own Wall Street banks like Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs? They also have great brands and exposure to wealth concentration, but don’t have to worry about the latest trends in frocks or jewellery. Alternately, might not consumer brands that are glossy, but one step down from luxury, be a steadier play on the K-shaped world? I think of the kitchen retailer Williams Sonoma, where you can signal your arrival by dropping $500 on a copper risotto pot or a Japanese chef’s knife. The rich’s appetite for fancy kitchen stuff is bottomless and unchanging, and Williams Sonoma earns a staggering return on equity of about 50 per cent.

I’m curious to hear readers’ thoughts.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Tomra (TMRA TH) +4.9%
    • Tomra Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 145 kroner
  • Kering (PPX TH) +4.4%
    • Kering Sells Beauty Division to L’Oreal in $4.7 Billion Deal
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +3.9%
  • Abivax (2X1 TH) +3.2%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +3%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +2.4%
  • B&M European (BMN TH) +2.4%
  • Umicore (NVJP TH) +2.4%
  • Legal & General (LGI TH) +1.9%
  • Novo (NOV TH) +1.8%
  • Bakkafrost (6BF TH) -1%
  • Diageo (GUI TH) -1.1%
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) -1.1%
  • 3i (IGQ5 TH) -1.2%
  • EDP SA (EDP TH) -1.7%
  • Fraport (FRA TH) -2.9%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -21%
    • TKMS Expects First Day of Trading in Frankfurt Oct. 20